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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

AMOC stability and diverging response to Arctic sea ice decline in two climate models

This study compares the impacts of Arctic sea ice decline on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in two configurations of the Community Earth System Model with different horizontal resolution. In a suite of model experiments, we impose radiative imbalance at the ice surface, replicating a loss of sea ice cover comparable to that observed during 1979–2014, and we find dramatic differences in the AMOC response between the two models. In the lower-resolution configuration, the AMOC weakens by about one-third over the first 100 years, approaching a new quasi-equilibrium. By contrast, in the higher-resolution configuration, the AMOC weakens by ~10% during the first 20–30 years followed by a full recovery driven by invigorated deep water formation in the Labrador Sea and adjacent regions. We investigate these differences using a diagnostic AMOC stability indicator, which reflects the AMOC freshwater transport in and out of the basin and hence the strength of the basin-scale salt-advection feedback. This indicator suggests that the AMOC in the lower-resolution model is less stable and more sensitive to surface perturbations, as confirmed by hosing experiments mimicking Arctic freshening due to sea ice decline. Differences between the models’ mean states, including the Atlantic Ocean mean surface freshwater fluxes, control the differences in AMOC stability. Our results demonstrate that the AMOC stability indicator is indeed useful for evaluating AMOC sensitivity to perturbations. We emphasize that, despite the differences in the long-term adjustment, both models simulate a multidecadal AMOC weakening caused by Arctic sea ice decline, relevant to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Dynamics of Megafire Smoke Plumes in Climate Models: Why a Converged Solution Matters for Physical Interpretations

As the climate system warms, megafires have become more frequent with devastating effects. A byproduct of these events is the creation of smoke plumes that can rise into the stratosphere and spread across the globe where they reside for many months. To gain a deeper understanding of the plume dynamics, global climate simulations of a megafire were performed at a wide range of grid spacings from 2.0° down to 7 km, including a 7 km nonhydrostatic experiment. The analysis focuses on how the resolved dynamics affects the specification of the plume characteristics such as injection height and black carbon (BC) mass. Prior studies initialize the smoke plume at one or a few grid points and this is shown here to produce severely dissipative dynamics. In order to validate such simulations with observations, enhancements of the plume characteristics to offset the dissipation is necessary. Using a numerically converged simulation, sensitivity tests show that to approximate the observed stratospheric lifetime, a reduction in BC fraction by 50% is necessary for external mixtures. The vorticity dynamics of the plume is also analyzed with a Lagrangian budget to understand the mechanisms responsible for the evolution of a collocated anticyclonic vortex. The results can be distilled down into a simple conceptual model. As the plume rises, the air diverges at the top of the updraft where the largest concentrations of smoke are found. This divergence induces a dilution of the background cyclonic absolute vorticity producing an anticyclonic vortex. Vortex decay occurs from opposite arguments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

POPSnet-SGP: A Pilot Aerosol Microphysics Network for Targeting Climate Model Uncertainty Interim Field Campaign Report

Aerosols mediate the radiative fluxes in clear and cloudy skies and dominate the uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate. Relatively dense networks of aerosol optical depth measurements have been used to effectively constrain simulated aerosol optical properties, but model diversity of aerosol microphysical properties is much larger (Mann et al. 2014, Myhre et al. 2009). A better understanding of aerosol microphysics is essential as they are the fundamental pieces of information required to convert aerosol emissions information to radiative and cloud-nucleating properties that drive radiative effects and forcing of climate. Model representation of aerosol microphysical properties has lagged in part due to their inherently greater spatial variability, but also due to a lack of available observations. This project – the Printed Optical Particle Spectrometer Network (POPSnet)-Southern Great Plains (SGP) Pilot – launched the first spatially dense network of aerosol size distribution measurements over an area the size of a global model grid cell and demonstrated its use in providing valuable information regarding the spatial variability of aerosol microphysical properties and its drivers for improving model constraints.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combining artificial intelligence, Earth observations, and climate models to improve predictability of ice-biogeochemistry interactions

Focal Area: Predictive Modeling. We describe how artificial intelligence (AI) can be combined with state-of-the-science Earth system models to better predict future regional climate responses. To demonstrate, we describe a case study in biogeochemical interactions with sea ice. Science Challenge: Biogeochemical models are poorly constrained for high latitude systems. Machine learning methods and edge computing can be combined with Earth system models, such as the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), to gain insight into ice-biogeochemical interactions and improve sea ice extent prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa

Smallholder farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low‐input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi‐arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi‐arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in‐season soil water content from 2‐year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (i) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2], (ii) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall and (iii) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model inter-comparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation practices across SSA, because the impact of climate change will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with more mineral fertilizer.

Crop simulation model↗
DOE OSTI2020

Numerically Relevant Timescales in the MG2 Microphysics Model

Climate models rely on parameterizations of a variety of processes in the atmospheric physics, but a common concern is that the temporal resolution is too coarse to consistently resolve the behavior that individual parameterizations are designed to capture. This study examines timescales numerically derived from the Morrison-Gettelman (MG2) microphysics as implemented within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, version 1 (E3SMv1). Numerically relevant timescales in MG2 are derived by computing the eigenspectrum of its Jacobian. These timescales are found to often be smaller than the default 5 min time step used for MG2. The fast timescales are then heuristically connected to individual microphysics processes. By substepping a few particular rain processes within MG2, the time discretization error for those processes was considerably reduced with minimal additional expense to the overall microphysics. While this improvement has a substantial effect on the target processes and on the vertical distribution of stratiform-derived rain within E3SMv1, the overall model climate is found to not be sensitive to MG2 time step. Here, we hypothesize that this is because the surface climate does not depend strongly on certain process rates, especially MG2's rain evaporation rate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Reducing uncertainties in climate models

Here, we report radiative forcing is a fundamental quantity for understanding both anthropogenic and natural changes in climate. It measures the extent to which human activities [such as the emission of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), see the image] and natural events (such as volcanic eruptions) perturb the flow of energy into and out of the climate system. This perturbation initiates all other changes of the climate in response to external forcings. Inconsistencies in the calculation of radiative forcing by CO 2 introduce uncertainties in model projections of climate change, a problem that has persisted for more than two decades. The explicit calculation of radiative forcing and a careful vetting of radiative transfer parameterizations provide a straightforward means to substantially reduce these uncertainties and improve the projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Why are cloud and surface albedo feedbacks anti-correlated in climate models?

A strong anti-correlation exists between global-mean cloud and surface albedo feedbacks in current general circulation models (GCMs), without which spread in climate sensitivity would be greater. This anti-correlation raises questions about the nature of the physical connection between the two feedbacks. Here, we examine the idea that the relationship between the two feedbacks arises from the fact that each is responding primarily to regional warming, but is defined by globally-averaged warming. Take the example of a model with larger-than-average tropical warming due to a strongly positive local cloud feedback: It may have a smaller conventionally-defined surface albedo feedback simply because the planetary heating due to surface albedo reductions is normalized by a larger globally-averaged warming. We test this idea in a one-dimensional energy balance model (EBM) under an external forcing. This EBM includes three feedbacks similar to those in GCMs: a positive cloud feedback confined to low latitudes, a positive surface albedo feedback confined to high latitudes, and a uniform Planck feedback. We perform a suite of EBM runs by varying the strengths of the cloud and surface albedo feedbacks, which operate on local warming. Their strengths are regionally-defined and have little correlation across the runs. However, the conventionally-defined cloud and surface albedo feedbacks diagnosed from the runs end up being strongly anti-correlated, as in GCMs. Thus the anticorrelation reflects the regional nature of the feedbacks rather than a globalscale teleconnection between them. In this sense, the choice to define the feedbacks according to global temperature change may be misleading.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Incorporation of aerosol into the COSPv2 satellite lidar simulator for climate model evaluation

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosol has substantial impacts on climate, air quality and biogeochemical cycles, and its concentrations are highly variable in space and time. A key variability to evaluate within models that simulate aerosol is the vertical distribution, which influences atmospheric heating profiles and aerosol–cloud interactions, to help constrain aerosol residence time and to better represent the magnitude of simulated impacts. To ensure a consistent comparison between modeled and observed vertical distribution of aerosol, we implemented an aerosol lidar simulator within the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package version 2 (COSPv2). We assessed the attenuated total backscattered (ATB) signal and the backscatter ratios (SRs) at 532 nm in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). The simulator performs the computations at the same vertical resolution as the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), making use of aerosol optics from the E3SMv1 model as inputs and assuming that aerosol is uniformly distributed horizontally within each model grid box. The simulator applies a cloud masking and an aerosol detection threshold to obtain the ATB and SR profiles that would be observed above clouds by CALIOP with its aerosol detection capability. Our analysis shows that the aerosol distribution simulated at a seasonal timescale is generally in good agreement with observations. Over the Southern Ocean, however, the model does not produce the SR maximum as observed in the real world. Comparison between clear-sky and all-sky SRs shows little differences, indicating that the cloud screening by potentially incorrect model clouds does not affect the mean aerosol signal averaged over a season. This indicates that the differences between observed and simulated SR values are due not to sampling errors, but to deficiencies in the representation of aerosol in models. Finally, we highlight the need for future applications of lidar observations at multiple wavelengths to provide insights into aerosol properties and distribution and their representation in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Short‐term time step convergence in a climate model

Abstract This paper evaluates the numerical convergence of very short (1 h) simulations carried out with a spectral‐element (SE) configuration of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). While the horizontal grid spacing is fixed at approximately 110 km, the process‐coupling time step is varied between 1800 and 1 s to reveal the convergence rate with respect to the temporal resolution. Special attention is paid to the behavior of the parameterized subgrid‐scale physics. First, a dynamical core test with reduced dynamics time steps is presented. The results demonstrate that the experimental setup is able to correctly assess the convergence rate of the discrete solutions to the adiabatic equations of atmospheric motion. Second, results from full‐physics CAM5 simulations with reduced physics and dynamics time steps are discussed. It is shown that the convergence rate is 0.4—considerably slower than the expected rate of 1.0. Sensitivity experiments indicate that, among the various subgrid‐scale physical parameterizations, the stratiform cloud schemes are associated with the largest time‐stepping errors, and are the primary cause of slow time step convergence. While the details of our findings are model specific, the general test procedure is applicable to any atmospheric general circulation model. The need for more accurate numerical treatments of physical parameterizations, especially the representation of stratiform clouds, is likely common in many models. The suggested test technique can help quantify the time‐stepping errors and identify the related model sensitivities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Stochastic Parameterization for Light Absorption by Internally Mixed BC/dust in Snow Grains for Application to Climate Models

A stochastic approach to model the positions of BC/dust internally mixed with two snow-grain types has been developed, including hexagonal plate/column (convex) and Koch snowflake (concave). Subsequently, light absorption and scattering analysis can be followed by means of an improved geometric-optics approach coupled with Monte Carlo photon tracing to determine their single-scattering properties. For a given shape (plate, Koch snowflake, spheroid, or sphere), internal mixing absorbs more light than external mixing. The snow-grain shape effect on absorption is relatively small, but its effect on the asymmetry factor is substantial. Due to a greater probability of intercepting photons, multiple inclusions of BC/dust exhibit a larger absorption than an equal-volume single inclusion. The spectral absorption (0.2 – 5 um) for snow grains internally mixed with BC/dust is confined to wavelengths shorter than about 1.4 um, beyond which ice absorption predominates. Based on the single-scattering properties determined from stochastic and light absorption parameterizations and using the adding/doubling method for spectral radiative transfer, we find that internal mixing reduces snow albedo more than external mixing and that the snow-grain shape plays a critical role in snow albedo calculations through the asymmetry factor. Also, snow albedo reduces more in the case of multiple inclusion of BC/dust compared to that of an equal-volume single sphere. For application to land/snow models, we propose a two-layer spectral snow parameterization containing contaminated fresh snow on top of old snow for investigating and understanding the climatic impact of multiple BC/dust internal mixing associated with snow grain metamorphism, particularly over mountains/snow topography.

climate models↗
DOE OSTI2017

Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Final Scientific/Technical Report

Seven Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, Universities, and Kitware, undertook a coordinated effort to build an Earth system modeling capability tailored to meet the climate change research strategic objectives of the DOE Office of Science, as well as the broader climate change application needs of other DOE programs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Simulation of the transport, vertical distribution, optical properties and radiative impact of smoke aerosols with the ALADIN regional climate model during the ORACLES-2016 and LASIC experiments

Estimates of the direct radiative effect (DRE) from absorbing smoke aerosols over the southeast Atlantic Ocean (SAO) require simulation of the microphysical and optical properties of stratocumulus clouds as well as of the altitude and shortwave (SW) optical properties of biomass burning aerosols (BBAs). In this study, we take advantage of the large number of observations acquired during the ObseRvations of Aerosols above Clouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES-2016) and Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) projects during September 2016 and compare them with datasets from the ALADIN-Climate (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational) regional model. The model provides a good representation of the liquid water path but the low cloud fraction is underestimated compared to satellite data. The modeled total-column smoke aerosol optical depth (AOD) and above-cloud AOD are consistent ( ~0.7 over continental sources and ~0.3 over the SAO at 550 nm) with the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The simulations indicate smoke transport over the SAO occurs mainly between 2 and 4 km, consistent with surface and aircraft lidar observations. The BBA single scattering albedo is slightly overestimated compared to the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and more significantly when compared to Ascension Island surface observations. The difference could be due to the absence of internal mixing treatment in the ALADIN-Climate model. The SSA overestimate leads to an underestimation of the simulated SW radiative heating compared to ORACLES data. ALADIN-Climate simulates a positive (monthly mean) SW DRE of about +6 W m -2 over the SAO (20 ° S–10 ° N and 10 ° W–20 ° E) at the top of the atmosphere and in all-sky conditions. Over the continent, the presence of BBA is shown to significantly decrease the net surface SW flux, through direct and semi-direct effects, which is compensated by a decrease (monthly mean) in sensible heat fluxes ( -25 W m -2 ) and surface land temperature ( -1.5 ° C) over Angola, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, notably. The surface cooling and the lower tropospheric heating decrease the continental planetary boundary layer height by about ~200 m.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Diagnostic Codes Catalogue – metrics, diagnostics and methodologies to evaluate, understand and improve the representation of clouds and cloud feedbacks in climate models

The CFMIP Diagnostic Codes Catalogue assembles cloud metrics, diagnostics and methodologies, together with programs to diagnose them from general circulation model (GCM) outputs written by various members of the CFMIP community. This aims to facilitate use of the diagnostics by the wider community studying climate and climate change. Here, this paper describes the diagnostics and metrics which are currently in the catalogue, together with examples of their application to model evaluation studies and a summary of some of the insights these diagnostics have provided into the main shortcomings in current GCMs. Analysis of outputs from CFMIP and CMIP6 experiments will also be facilitated by the sharing of diagnostic codes via this catalogue. Any code which implements diagnostics relevant to analysing clouds – including cloud–circulation interactions and the contribution of clouds to estimates of climate sensitivity in models – and which is documented in peer-reviewed studies, can be included in the catalogue. We very much welcome additional contributions to further support community analysis of CMIP6 outputs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Calibration of radiation codes in climate models: Comparison of calculations with observations from the SPECtral Radiation Experiment (SPECTRE)

The primary goal of SPECTRE is to: close the loopholes by which longwave radiation models have eluded incisive comparisons with measurements. Likewise, the experimental approach was quite simple in concept, namely: accurately measure the zenith infrared radiance at high spectral resolution while simultaneously profiling the radiatively important atmospheric properties with conventional and remote sensing devices. The field phase of SPECTRE was carried out as part of FIRE Cirrus II, and detailed spectra of the down welling radiance were obtained by several interferometers simultaneous to the measurement of the optical properties of the atmosphere. We are now well along in the process of analyzing the data and calibrating radiation codes so that they may be used more effectively in climate related studies. The calibration is being done with models ranging from the most detailed (line-by-line) to the broad-band parameterizations used in climate models. This paper summarizes our progress in the calibration for clear-sky conditions. When this stage is completed, we will move on to the calibration for cirrus conditions.

Ellingson, R. G.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Tropical Cyclone Wind Forcing on the Global Climate in a Fully Coupled Climate Model

Tropical cyclones (TCs) alter upper-ocean temperature and influence ocean heat content via enhanced turbulent mixing. A better understanding of the role of TCs within the climate system requires a fully coupled modeling framework, where TC-induced ocean responses feed back to the atmosphere and subsequently to the climate mean state and variability. Here, we investigate the impacts of TC wind forcing on the global ocean and the associated feedbacks within the climate system using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model version 1.3 (CESM1.3). Using the low-resolution version of CESM1.3 (1° atmosphere and ocean grid spacing) with no intrinsic TCs, we conduct a suite of sensitivity experiments by inserting TC winds extracted from a high-resolution (0.25° atmosphere grid spacing) TC-permitting simulation into the low-resolution model. Results from the low-resolution TC experiment are compared to a low-resolution control simulation to diagnose TCs’ impact. We found that the added TC winds can increase ocean heat content by affecting ocean vertical mixing, air–sea enthalpy fluxes, and cloud amount. Here, the added TCs can influence mean SST, precipitation, ocean subsurface temperature, and ocean mixed layer depth. We found a strengthening of the wind-driven subtropical cells and a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation due to the changes of surface buoyancy fluxes. TCs in the model cause anomalous equatorward ocean heat convergence in the deep tropics and an increase of poleward ocean heat transport out of the subtropics. Our modeling results provide new insights into the multiscale interactions between TCs and the coupled climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗