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At least 559 records · Page 31
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NASA NTRS2004

Trend and Variability of China Precipitation in Spring and Summer: Linkage to Sea Surface Temperatures

Observational records in the past 50 years show an upward trend of boreal-summer precipitation over central eastern China and a downward trend over northern China. During boreal spring, the trend is upward over southeastern China and downward over central eastern China. This study explores the forcing mechanism of these trends in association with the global sea-surface temperature (SST) variations on the interannual and inter-decadal timescales. Results based on Singular Value Decomposition analyses (SVD) show that the interannual variability of China precipitation in boreal spring and summer can be well defined by two centers of actions for each season, which are co-varying with two interannual modes of SSTs. The first SVD modes of precipitation in spring and summer, which are centered in southeastern China and northern China, respectively, are linked to an ENSO-like mode of SSTs. The second SVD modes of precipitation in both seasons are confined to central eastern China, and are primarily linked to SST variations over the warm pool and Indian Ocean. Features of the anomalous 850-hPa winds and 700-Wa geopotential height corresponding to these modes support a physical mechanism that explains the causal links between the modal variations of precipitation and SSTs. On the decadal and longer timescale, similar causal links are found between the same modes of precipitation and SSTs, except for the case of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For this case, while the interannual mode of precipitation is positively correlated with the interannual variations of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean; the inter-decadal mode is negatively correlated with a different SST mode, the North Pacific mode. The later is responsible for the observed downward trend of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For all other cases, both the interannual and inter-decadal variations of precipitation can be explained by the same mode of SSTs. The upward trend of springtime precipitation over southeastern China and downward trend of summertime precipitation over northern China are attributable to the warming trend of the ENSO-like mode. The recent frequent summertime floods over central eastern China are linked to the warming trend of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean.

Yang, Fanglin↗
NASA NTRS2004

InvestigationOrganizer: The Development and Testing of a Web-based Tool to Support Mishap Investigations

InvestigationOrganizer (IO) is a collaborative web-based system designed to support the conduct of mishap investigations. IO provides a common repository for a wide range of mishap related information, and allows investigators to make explicit, shared, and meaningful links between evidence, causal models, findings and recommendations. It integrates the functionality of a database, a common document repository, a semantic knowledge network, a rule-based inference engine, and causal modeling and visualization. Thus far, IO has been used to support four mishap investigations within NASA, ranging from a small property damage case to the loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia. This paper describes how the functionality of IO supports mishap investigations and the lessons learned from the experience of supporting two of the NASA mishap investigations: the Columbia Accident Investigation and the CONTOUR Loss Investigation.

Carvalho, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Flight Test Comparison Between Enhanced Vision (FLIR) and Synthetic Vision Systems

Limited visibility and reduced situational awareness have been cited as predominant causal factors for both Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) and runway incursion accidents. NASA s Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) project is developing practical application technologies with the goal of eliminating low visibility conditions as a causal factor to civil aircraft accidents while replicating the operational benefits of clear day flight operations, regardless of the actual outside visibility condition. A major thrust of the SVS project involves the development/demonstration of affordable, certifiable display configurations that provide intuitive out-the-window terrain and obstacle information with advanced pathway guidance. A flight test evaluation was conducted in the summer of 2004 by NASA Langley Research Center under NASA s Aviation Safety and Security, Synthetic Vision System - Commercial and Business program. A Gulfstream G-V aircraft, modified and operated under NASA contract by the Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, was flown over a 3-week period at the Reno/Tahoe International Airport and an additional 3-week period at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility to evaluate integrated Synthetic Vision System concepts. Flight testing was conducted to evaluate the performance, usability, and acceptance of an integrated synthetic vision concept which included advanced Synthetic Vision display concepts for a transport aircraft flight deck, a Runway Incursion Prevention System, an Enhanced Vision Systems (EVS), and real-time Database Integrity Monitoring Equipment. This paper focuses on comparing qualitative and subjective results between EVS and SVS display concepts.

Arthur, Jarvis J., III↗
NASA NTRS2005

PlanWorks: A Debugging Environment for Constraint Based Planning Systems

Numerous planning and scheduling systems employ underlying constraint reasoning systems. Debugging such systems involves the search for errors in model rules, constraint reasoning algorithms, search heuristics, and the problem instance (initial state and goals). In order to effectively find such problems, users must see why each state or action is in a plan by tracking causal chains back to part of the initial problem instance. They must be able to visualize complex relationships among many different entities and distinguish between those entities easily. For example, a variable can be in the scope of several constraints, as well as part of a state or activity in a plan; the activity can arise as a consequence of another activity and a model rule. Finally, they must be able to track each logical inference made during planning. We have developed PlanWorks, a comprehensive system for debugging constraint-based planning and scheduling systems. PlanWorks assumes a strong transaction model of the entire planning process, including adding and removing parts of the constraint network, variable assignment, and constraint propagation. A planner logs all transactions to a relational database that is tailored to support queries for of specialized views to display different forms of data (e.g. constraints, activities, resources, and causal links). PlanWorks was specifically developed for the Extensible Universal Remote Operations Planning Architecture (EUROPA(sub 2)) developed at NASA, but the underlying principles behind PlanWorks make it useful for many constraint-based planning systems. The paper is organized as follows. We first describe some fundamentals of EUROPA(sub 2). We then describe PlanWorks' principal components. We then discuss each component in detail, and then describe inter-component navigation features. We close with a discussion of how PlanWorks is used to find model flaws.

Daley, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2005

Prediction of Turbulence-Generated Noise in Unheated Jets: JeNo Technical Manual (Version 1.0) - Part 1

The model-based approach, used by the JeNo code to predict jet noise spectral directivity, is described. A linearized form of Lilley's equation governs the non-causal Green s function of interest, with the non-linear terms on the right hand side identified as the source. A Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) solution yields the required mean flow for the solution of the propagation Green s function in a locally parallel flow. The RANS solution also produces time- and length-scales needed to model the non-compact source, the turbulent velocity correlation tensor, with exponential temporal and spatial functions. It is shown that while an exact non-causal Green s function accurately predicts the observed shift in the location of the spectrum peak with angle as well as the angularity of sound at low to moderate Mach numbers, the polar directivity of radiated sound is not entirely captured by this Green s function at high subsonic and supersonic acoustic Mach numbers. Results presented for unheated jets in the Mach number range of 0.51 to 1.8 suggest that near the peak radiation angle of high-speed jets, a different source/Green s function convolution integral may be required in order to capture the peak observed directivity of jet noise. A sample Mach 0.90 heated jet is also discussed that highlights the requirements for a comprehensive jet noise prediction model.

Khavaran, Abbas↗
NASA NTRS2005

Revealing Relationships among Relevant Climate Variables with Information Theory

The primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced forcing. We are currently developing a suite of computational tools that will allow researchers to calculate, from data, a variety of information-theoretic quantities such as mutual information, which can be used to identify relationships among climate variables, and transfer entropy, which indicates the possibility of causal interactions. Our tools estimate these quantities along with their associated error bars, the latter of which is critical for describing the degree of uncertainty in the estimates. This work is based upon optimal binning techniques that we have developed for piecewise-constant, histogram-style models of the underlying density functions. Two useful side benefits have already been discovered. The first allows a researcher to determine whether there exist sufficient data to estimate the underlying probability density. The second permits one to determine an acceptable degree of round-off when compressing data for efficient transfer and storage. We also demonstrate how mutual information and transfer entropy can be applied so as to allow researchers not only to identify relations among climate variables, but also to characterize and quantify their possible causal interactions.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Synthetic Vision Enhanced Surface Operations and Flight Procedures Rehearsal Tool

Limited visibility has been cited as predominant causal factor for both Controlled-Flight-Into-Terrain (CFIT) and runway incursion accidents. NASA is conducting research and development of Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) technologies which may potentially mitigate low visibility conditions as a causal factor to these accidents while replicating the operational benefits of clear day flight operations, regardless of the actual outside visibility condition. Two experimental evaluation studies were performed to determine the efficacy of two concepts: 1) head-worn display application of SVS technology to enhance transport aircraft surface operations, and 2) three-dimensional SVS electronic flight bag display concept for flight plan preview, mission rehearsal and controller-pilot data link communications interface of flight procedures. In the surface operation study, pilots evaluated two display devices and four display modes during taxi under unlimited and CAT II visibility conditions. In the mission rehearsal study, pilots flew approaches and departures in an operationally-challenged airport environment, including CFIT scenarios. Performance using the SVS concepts was compared to traditional baseline displays with paper charts only or EFB information. In general, the studies evince the significant situation awareness and enhanced operational capabilities afforded from these advanced SVS display concepts. The experimental results and conclusions from these studies are discussed along with future directions.

Arthur, Jarvis J., III↗
NASA NTRS2008

Aspects of Synthetic Vision Display Systems and the Best Practices of the NASA's SVS Project

NASA s Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) Project conducted research aimed at eliminating visibility-induced errors and low visibility conditions as causal factors in civil aircraft accidents while enabling the operational benefits of clear day flight operations regardless of actual outside visibility. SVS takes advantage of many enabling technologies to achieve this capability including, for example, the Global Positioning System (GPS), data links, radar, imaging sensors, geospatial databases, advanced display media and three dimensional video graphics processors. Integration of these technologies to achieve the SVS concept provides pilots with high-integrity information that improves situational awareness with respect to terrain, obstacles, traffic, and flight path. This paper attempts to emphasize the system aspects of SVS - true systems, rather than just terrain on a flight display - and to document from an historical viewpoint many of the best practices that evolved during the SVS Project from the perspective of some of the NASA researchers most heavily involved in its execution. The Integrated SVS Concepts are envisagements of what production-grade Synthetic Vision systems might, or perhaps should, be in order to provide the desired functional capabilities that eliminate low visibility as a causal factor to accidents and enable clear-day operational benefits regardless of visibility conditions.

Bailey, Randall E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Soil Moisture Controls on Rainfall and Temperature Variability: A Modeler Searches Through Observational Data

The degree to which atmospheric processes respond to variations in soil moisture - a potentially important but largely untapped element of subseasonal to seasonal prediction - can be determined easily and directly for an atmospheric model but cannot be determined directly for nature through an analysis of observations. In atmospheric models) directions of causality can be artificially manipulated; we can avoid difficulties associated with the fact that atmospheric variations have a much larger impact on land state variations than vice-versa. In nature) on the other hand) the dominant direction of causality (the atmosphere forcing the ground) cannot be artificially "turned off") and the statistics associated with this dominant direction overwhelm those of the feedback signal. Observational data) however) do allow a number of indirect measures of landatmosphere feedback. This seminar reports on a series of joint analyses of observational and model data designed to illuminate the degree of land-atmosphere feedback present in the real world. The indirect measures do in fact suggest that feedback in nature, though small) is significant - enough to warrant the development of realistic land initialization strategies for subseasonal and seasonal forecasts.

Koster, Randal↗
NASA NTRS2009

Diagnosis and Reconfiguration using Bayesian Networks: An Electrical Power System Case Study

Automated diagnosis and reconfiguration are important computational techniques that aim to minimize human intervention in autonomous systems. In this paper, we develop novel techniques and models in the context of diagnosis and reconfiguration reasoning using causal Bayesian networks (BNs). We take as starting point a successful diagnostic approach, using a static BN developed for a real-world electrical power system. We discuss in this paper the extension of this diagnostic approach along two dimensions, namely: (i) from a static BN to a dynamic BN; and (ii) from a diagnostic task to a reconfiguration task. More specifically, we discuss the auto-generation of a dynamic Bayesian network from a static Bayesian network. In addition, we discuss subtle, but important, differences between Bayesian networks when used for diagnosis versus reconfiguration. We discuss a novel reconfiguration agent, which models a system causally, including effects of actions through time, using a dynamic Bayesian network. Though the techniques we discuss are general, we demonstrate them in the context of electrical power systems (EPSs) for aircraft and spacecraft. EPSs are vital subsystems on-board aircraft and spacecraft, and many incidents and accidents of these vehicles have been attributed to EPS failures. We discuss a case study that provides initial but promising results for our approach in the setting of electrical power systems.

Knox, W. Bradley↗
NASA NTRS2010

Aircraft Loss-of-Control Accident Analysis

Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. To gain a better understanding into aircraft loss-of-control events and possible intervention strategies, this paper presents a detailed analysis of loss-of-control accident data (predominantly from Part 121), including worst case combinations of causal and contributing factors and their sequencing. Future potential risks are also considered.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Aircraft Loss of Control Study

Loss of control has become the leading cause of jet fatalities worldwide. Aside from their frequency of occurrence, accidents resulting from loss of aircraft control seize the public s attention by yielding large numbers of fatalities in a single event. In response to the rising threat to aviation safety, NASA's Aviation Safety Program has conducted a study of the loss of control problem. This study gathered four types of information pertaining to loss of control accidents: (1) statistical data; (2) individual accident reports that cite loss of control as a contributing factor; (3) previous meta-analyses of loss of control accidents; and (4) inputs solicited from aircraft manufacturers, air carriers, researchers, and other industry stakeholders. Using these information resources, the study team identified causal factors that were cited in the greatest number of loss of control accidents, and which were emphasized most by industry stakeholders. For each causal factor that was linked to loss of control, the team solicited ideas about what solutions are required and future research efforts that could potentially help avoid their occurrence or mitigate their consequences when they occurred in flight.

Jacobson, Steven R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Invigoration of Deep Convective Clouds Over the Atlantic: Aerosol Effect, Meteorology or Retrieval Artifact?

Associations between cloud properties and aerosol loading are frequently observed in products derived from satellite measurements. These observed trends between clouds and aerosol optical depth suggest aerosol modification of cloud dynamics, yet there are uncertainties involved in satellite retrievals that have the potential to lead to incorrect conclusions. Two of the most challenging problems are addressed here: the potential for retrieved aerosol optical depth to be cloud-contaminated, and as a result, artificially correlated with cloud parameters; and the potential for correlations between aerosol and cloud parameters to be erroneously considered to be causal. Here these issues are tackled directly by studying the effects of the aerosol on convective clouds in the tropical Atlantic Ocean using satellite remote sensing, a chemical transport model, and a reanalysis of meteorological fields. Results show that there is a robust positive correlation between cloud fraction or cloud top height and the aerosol optical depth, regardless of whether a stringent filtering of aerosol measurements in the vicinity of clouds is applied, or not. These same positive correlations emerge when replacing the observed aerosol field with that derived from a chemical transport model. Model-reanalysis data is used to address the causality question by providing meteorological context for the satellite observations. A correlation exercise between the full suite of meteorological fields derived from model reanalysis and satellite-derived cloud fields shows that observed cloud top height and cloud fraction correlate best with model pressure updraft velocity and relative humidity. Observed aerosol optical depth does correlate with meteorological parameters but usually different parameters from those that correlate with observed cloud fields. The result is a near-orthogonal influence of aerosol and meteorological fields on cloud top height and cloud fraction. The results strengthen the case that the aerosol does play a role in invigorating convective clouds.

Koren, Ilan↗
NASA NTRS2010

Fermi GBM Observations of Terrestrial Gamma-Ray Flashes

This slide presentation explores the relationship between Terrestrial Gamma-Ray Flashes (TGF) and lightning. Using data from the World-Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN), and the gamma ray observations from Fermi's Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM), the study reviews any causal relationship between TGFs and lightning. The conclusion of the study is that the TGF and lightning are simultaneous with out a causal relationship.

Wilson-Hodge, Colleen A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Examination of Commercial Aviation Accidents and Incidents Related to Integrated Vehicle Health Management

The Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) Project is one of the four projects within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSafe). The IVHM Project conducts research to develop validated tools and technologies for automated detection, diagnosis, and prognosis that enable mitigation of adverse events during flight. Adverse events include those that arise from system, subsystem, or component failure, faults, and malfunctions due to damage, degradation, or environmental hazards that occur during flight. Determining the causal factors and adverse events related to IVHM technologies will help in the formulation of research requirements and establish a list of example adverse conditions against which IVHM technologies can be evaluated. This paper documents the results of an examination of the most recent statistical/prognostic accident and incident data that is available from the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) System to determine the causal factors of system/component failures and/or malfunctions in U.S. commercial aviation accidents and incidents.

Reveley, Mary S.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Abiotic Versus Biotic Pathogens: Replicative Growth in Host Tissues Key to Discriminating Between Biotoxic Injury and Active Pathogenesis

Life can be defined as a self-sustaining chemical system capable of undergoing Darwinian evolution; a self-bounded, self-replicating, and self-perpetuating entity [1]. This definition should hold for terrestrial as well as extraterrestrial life-forms. Although, it is reasonable to expect that a Mars life-form would be more adaptable to Mars-like conditions than to Earth-like environments, it remains possible that negative ecological or host interactions might occur if Mars microbiota were to be inadvertently released into the terrestrial environment. A biogenic infectious agent can be defined as a self-sustaining chemical system capable of undergoing Darwinian evolution and derives its sustenance from a living cell or from the by-products of cell death. Disease can be de-fined as the detrimental alteration of one or more ordered metabolic processes in a living host caused by the continued irritation of a primary causal factor or factors; disease is a dynamic process [2]. In contrast, an injury is due to an instantaneous event; injury is not a dynamic process [2]. A causal agent of disease is defined as a pathogen, and can be either abiotic or biotic in nature. Diseases incited by biotic pathogens are the exceptions, not the norms, in terrestrial host-microbe interactions. Disease induction in a plant host can be conceptually characterized using the Disease Triangle (Fig. 1) in which disease occurs only when all host, pathogen, and environ-mental factors that contribute to the development of disease are within conducive ranges for a necessary minimum period of time. For example, plant infection and disease caused by the wheat leaf rust fungus, Puccinia recondita, occur only if virulent spores adhere to genetically susceptible host tissues for at least 4-6 hours under favorable conditions of temperature and moisture [3]. As long as one or more conditions required for disease initiation are not available, disease symptoms will not develop.

Schuerger, Andrew C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Modeling Inflation Using a Non-Equilibrium Equation of Exchange

Inflation is a change in the prices of goods that takes place without changes in the actual values of those goods. The Equation of Exchange, formulated clearly in a seminal paper by Irving Fisher in 1911, establishes an equilibrium relationship between the price index P (also known as "inflation"), the economy's aggregate output Q (also known as "the real gross domestic product"), the amount of money available for spending M (also known as "the money supply"), and the rate at which money is reused V (also known as "the velocity of circulation of money"). This paper offers first a qualitative discussion of what can cause these factors to change and how those causes might be controlled, then develops a quantitative model of inflation based on a non-equilibrium version of the Equation of Exchange. Causal relationships are different from equations in that the effects of changes in the causal variables take time to play out-often significant amounts of time. In the model described here, wages track prices, but only after a distributed lag. Prices change whenever the money supply, aggregate output, or the velocity of circulation of money change, but only after a distributed lag. Similarly, the money supply depends on the supplies of domestic and foreign money, which depend on the monetary base and a variety of foreign transactions, respectively. The spreading of delays mitigates the shocks of sudden changes to important inputs, but the most important aspect of this model is that delays, which often have dramatic consequences in dynamic systems, are explicitly incorporated.macroeconomics, inflation, equation of exchange, non-equilibrium, Athena Project

Chamberlain, Robert G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

A Structural Model Decomposition Framework for Hybrid Systems Diagnosis

Nowadays, a large number of practical systems in aerospace and industrial environments are best represented as hybrid systems that consist of discrete modes of behavior, each defined by a set of continuous dynamics. These hybrid dynamics make the on-line fault diagnosis task very challenging. In this work, we present a new modeling and diagnosis framework for hybrid systems. Models are composed from sets of user-defined components using a compositional modeling approach. Submodels for residual generation are then generated for a given mode, and reconfigured efficiently when the mode changes. Efficient reconfiguration is established by exploiting causality information within the hybrid system models. The submodels can then be used for fault diagnosis based on residual generation and analysis. We demonstrate the efficient causality reassignment, submodel reconfiguration, and residual generation for fault diagnosis using an electrical circuit case study.

structural model decomposition↗