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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Bias in CMIP6 Models as Compared to Observed Regional Dimming and Brightening

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have increased considerably over the last century, but climate effects and quantification of the emissions are highly uncertain as one goes back in time. This uncertainty is partly due to a lack of observations in the pre-satellite era, making the observations we do have before 1990 additionally valuable. Aerosols suspended in the atmosphere scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation and thereby alter the Earth's surface energy balance. Previous studies show that Earth system models (ESMs) do not adequately represent surface energy fluxes over the historical era. We investigated global and regional aerosol effects over the time period 1961–2014 by looking at surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR). We used observations from ground stations as well as multiple experiments from eight ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6). Our results show that this subset of models reproduces the observed transient SDSR well in Europe but poorly in China. We suggest that this may be attributed to missing emissions of sulfur dioxide in China, sulfur dioxide being a precursor to sulfate, which is a highly reflective aerosol and responsible for more reflective clouds. The emissions of sulfur dioxide used in the models do not show a temporal pattern that could explain observed SDSR evolution over China. The results from various aerosol emission perturbation experiments from DAMIP, RFMIP and AerChemMIP show that only simulations containing anthropogenic aerosol emissions show dimming, even if the dimming is underestimated. Simulated clear-sky and all-sky SDSR do not differ greatly, suggesting that cloud cover changes are not a dominant cause of the biased SDSR evolution in the simulations. Therefore we suggest that the discrepancy between modeled and observed SDSR evolution is partly caused by erroneous aerosol and aerosol precursor emission inventories. This is an important finding as it may help interpret whether ESMs reproduce the historical climate evolution for the right or wrong reason.

surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR)↗
NASA NTRS2019

Large Contribution of Meteorological Factors to Inter-Decadal Changes in Regional Aerosol Optical Depth

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) has become a crucial metric for assessing global climate change. Although global and regional AOD trends have been studied extensively, it remains unclear what factors are driving the inter-decadal variations in regional AOD and how to quantify the relative contribution of each dominant factor. This study used a long-term (1980–2016) aerosol dataset from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, along with two satellite-based AOD datasets (MODIS/Terra and MISR) from 2001 to 2016, to investigate the long-term trends in global and regional aerosol loading. Statistical models based on emission factors and meteorological parameters were developed to identify the main factors driving the inter-decadal changes of regional AOD and to quantify their contribution. Evaluation of the MERRA-2 AOD with the ground-based measurements of AERONET indicated significant spatial agreement on the global scale (r= 0.85, root-mean-square error = 0.12, mean fractional error = 38.7 %, fractional gross error = 9.86 % and index of agreement = 0.94). However, when AOD observations from the China Aerosol Remote Sensing Network (CARSNET) were employed for independent verification, the results showed that MERRA-2 AODs generally underestimated CARSNET AODs in China (relative mean bias = 0.72 and fractional gross error =−34.3 %). In general, MERRA-2 was able to quantitatively reproduce the annual and seasonal AOD trends on both regional and global scales, as observed by MODIS/Terra, although some differences were found when compared to MISR. Over the 37-year period in this study, significant decreasing trends were observed over Europe and the eastern United States. In contrast, eastern China and southern Asia showed AOD increases, but the increasing trend of the former reversed sharply in the most recent decade. The statistical analyses suggested that the meteorological parameters explained a larger proportion of the AOD variability (20.4 %–72.8 %) over almost all regions of interest (ROIs) during 1980–2014 when compared with emission factors (0 %–56 %). Further analysis also showed that SO2 was the dominant emission factor, explaining 12.7 %–32.6 % of the variation in AOD over anthropogenic-aerosol-dominant regions, while black carbon or organic carbon was the leading factor over the biomass-burning-dominant (BBD) regions, contributing 24.0 %–27.7 % of the variation. Additionally, wind speed was found to be the leading meteorological parameter, explaining 11.8 %–30.3 % of the variance over the mineral-dust-dominant regions, while ambient humidity (including soil moisture and relative humidity) was the top meteorological parameter over the BBD regions, accounting for 11.7 %–35.5 % of the variation. The results of this study indicate that the variation in meteorological parameters is a key factor in determining the inter-decadal change in regional AOD.

Huizheng Che↗
NASA NTRS2021

Regional trends and drivers of the global methane budget

The ongoing development of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) global methane (CH4) budget shows a continuation of increasing CH4 emissions and CH4 accumulation in the atmosphere during 2000–2017. Here, we decompose the global budget into 19 regions (18 land and 1 oceanic) and five key source sectors to spatially attribute the observed global trends. A comparison of top-down (TD) (atmospheric and transport model-based) and bottom-up (BU) (inventory- and process model-based) CH4 emission estimates demonstrates robust temporal trends with CH4 emissions increasing in 16 of the 19 regions. Five regions—China, Southeast Asia, USA, South Asia, and Brazil—account for >40% of the global total emissions (their anthropogenic and natural sources together totaling >270 Tg CH4 yr−1 in 2008–2017). Two of these regions, China and South Asia, emit predominantly anthropogenic emissions (>75%) and together emit more than 25% of global anthropogenic emissions. China and the Middle East show the largest increases in total emission rates over the 2000 to 2017 period with regional emissions increasing by >20%. In contrast, Europe and Korea and Japan show a steady decline in CH4 emission rates, with total emissions decreasing by ~10% between 2000 and 2017. Coal mining, waste (predominantly solid waste disposal) and livestock (especially enteric fermentation) are dominant drivers of observed emissions increases while declines appear driven by a combination of waste and fossil emission reductions. As such, together these sectors present the greatest risks of further increasing the atmospheric CH4 burden and the greatest opportunities for greenhouse gas abatement.

Global Carbon Project (GCP)↗
NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying urban, industrial, and background changes in NO2 during the COVID-19 lockdown period based on TROPOMI satellite observations

The COVID-19 lockdown had a large impact on anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and particularly on nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ). While the overall NO 2 decline over some large cities is well-established, understanding the details remains a challenge since multiple source categories contribute. In this study, a new method of isolation of three components (background NO 2 , NO 2 from urban sources, and NO 2 from industrial point sources) is applied to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on each of them. The approach is based on fitting satellite data by a statistical model with empirical plume dispersion functions driven by a meteorological reanalysis. Population density and surface elevation data as well as coordinates of industrial sources were used in the analysis. The tropospheric NO 2 vertical column density (VCD) values measured by the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on board the Sentinel-5 Precursor over 261 urban areas for the period from 16 March to 15 June 2020 were compared with the average VCD values for the same period in 2018 and 2019. While the background NO 2 component remained almost unchanged, the urban NO 2 component declined by −18 % to −28 % over most regions. India, South America, and a part of Europe (particularly, Italy, France, and Spain) demonstrated a −40 % to −50 % urban emission decline. In contrast, the decline over urban areas in China, where the lockdown was over during the analysed period, was, on average, only -4.4± 8 %. Emissions from large industrial sources in the analysed urban areas varied greatly from region to region from -4.8 ± 6 % for China to -40 ± 10 % for India. Estimated changes in urban emissions are correlated with changes in Google mobility data (the correlation coefficient is 0.62) confirming that changes in traffic were one of the key elements in the decline in urban NO2 emissions. No correlation was found between changes in background NO2 and Google mobility data. On the global scale, the background and urban components were remarkably stable in 2018, 2019, and 2021, with averages of all analysed areas all being within ±2.5 % and suggesting that there were no substantial drifts or shifts in TROPOMI data. The 2020 data are clearly an outlier: in 2020, the mean background component for all analysed areas (without China) was -6.0 % ± 1.2 % and the mean urban component was -26.7 ± 2.6 % or 20σ below the baseline level from the other years.

COVID-19↗
DOE OSTI2022

Achieving American Leadership in the Solar Photovoltaics Supply Chain Factsheet

Developing U.S. photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing could mitigate global supply chain challenges and lead to tremendous benefits for the climate as well as for U.S. workers, employers, and the economy. The solar supply chain is global and reliant on products from China or companies with close ties to China. Significant growth in U.S. manufacturing across the supply chain is possible with incentives that offset the higher cost of manufacturing in the United States. Existing polysilicon production facilities are currently idle or supplying polysilicon to other industries. Expansion in the ingot and wafer sectors outside of China would create demand for existing U.S. polysilicon producers to run at high capacity. The United States can expand production of thin-film modules, which do not rely on obtaining materials from Chinese companies. The thin film supply chain is concentrated in Ohio. There is a cluster of solar module manufacturers in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, which presents an opportunity to grow a competitive supply chain of module components in the region.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reducing Long‐Standing Surface Ozone Overestimation in Earth System Modeling by High‐Resolution Simulation and Dry Deposition Improvement

The overestimation of surface ozone concentration in low‐resolution global atmospheric chemistry and climate models has been a long‐standing issue. We first update the ozone dry deposition scheme in both high‐ (0.25°) and low‐resolution (1°) Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.3 runs, by adding the effects of leaf area index and correcting the sunlit and shaded fractions of stomatal resistances. With this update, 5‐year‐long summer simulations (2015–2019) using the low‐resolution CESM still exhibit substantial ozone overestimation (by 6.0–16.2 ppbv) over the U.S., Europe, eastern China, and ozone pollution hotspots. The ozone dry deposition scheme is further improved by adjusting the leaf cuticle conductance, reducing the mean ozone bias by 19%, and increasing the model resolution further reduces the ozone overestimation by 43%. We elucidate the mechanism by which model grid spacing influences simulated ozone, revealing distinctive pathways in urban versus rural areas. In rural areas, grid spacing mainly affects daytime ozone levels, where additional NO x emissions from nearby urban areas result in an ozone boost and overestimation in low‐resolution simulations. In contrast, over urban areas, daytime ozone overestimation follows a similar mechanism due to the influence of volatile organic compounds from surrounding rural areas. However, nighttime ozone overestimation is closely linked to weakened NO titration owing to the redistribution of urban NO x to rural areas. Additionally, stratosphere‐troposphere exchange may also contribute to reducing ozone bias in high‐resolution simulations, warranting further investigation. This optimized high‐resolution CESM may enhance understanding of ozone formation mechanisms, sources, and changes in a warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A general framework for nitrogen deposition effects on soil respiration in global forests

Since the Industrial Revolution, human activities have altered atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition to global forests, affecting carbon dioxide emissions from soils (soil respiration or SR) – one of the largest land-atmosphere carbon fluxes. However, experimental studies have demonstrated both positive and negative effects of N deposition on SR in global forests, leading to debates on how N deposition increases or decreases SR. We developed a framework for generalizing SR responses to N deposition using synthesized data from 168 N addition experiments worldwide and observed SR across the global natural N deposition gradient. The findings indicate that N deposition decreased SR in 2.9% of global forested areas, particularly in eastern China, western Europe, and the eastern USA. However, the net effect of N deposition increased the global forest SR by ~5% (1.7 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 ). If N pollution could be effectively controlled, global forest SR would decrease, potentially contributing to a reduction in the terrestrial carbon emissions.

Cen, Xiaoyu [National Forestry and Grassland Admin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microbial community dynamics in the soil-root continuum are linked with plant species turnover during secondary succession

Grazing exclusion and land abandonment are commonly adopted to restore degraded ecosystems in semiarid and arid regions worldwide. However, the temporal variation in the soil- versus root-associated microbiome over plant species turnover during secondary succession has rarely been quantified. Using the chronosequence restored from fenced grassland and abandoned farmlands on the Loess Plateau of China, we characterized the dynamics of the soil- and root-associated microbiome of host plant with different dominance statuses during secondary succession from 0 to 40 years. Our results revealed that the root microhabitat, the host plant and their interactions were the main contributors to the bacterial community shift (R 2 = 15.5%, 8.1%, and 22.3%, respectively), and plant interspecies replacement had a greater effect on the shift in the root-associated microbial community than intraspecies replacement did during succession. The root-associated bacterial community of pioneer plants was particularly responsive to succession, especially the endosphere community. Endosphere microbial diversity was positively correlated with host plant coverage change, and the diversity and abundance of taxon recruitment into the endosphere of pioneer plants from the surrounding environment decreased as succession progressed. The community assembly processes also indicated that the endosphere microbiota are strongly selected in younger host plants, whereas stochastic processes dominate in aged host plants. Our study provides evidence of the unique response of the root-associated microbiome to the replacement of plant species during secondary succession, and the function of endosphere microbes should be considered when studying plant–microbe feedback.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Novel Mito-Nuclear Combinations Facilitate the Global Invasion of a Major Agricultural Crop Pest

A fundamental understanding of the underlying mechanisms involved in biological invasions is crucial to developing effective risk assessment and control measures against invasive species. The fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda, is a highly invasive pest that has rapidly spread from its native Americas into much of the Eastern Hemisphere, with a highly homogeneous nuclear genetic background. However, the exact mechanism behind its rapid introduction and propagation remains unclear. Here, a systematic investigation is conducted into the population dynamics of FAW in China from 2019 to 2021 and found that FAW individuals carrying “rice” mitochondria (FAW-mR) are more prevalent (>98%) than that with “corn” mitochondria (FAW-mC) at the initial stage of the invasion and in newly-occupied non-overwintering areas. Further fitness experiments show that the two hybrid-strains of FAW exhibit different adaptions in the new environment in China, and this may have been facilitated by amino acid changes in mitochondrial-encoded proteins. FAW-mR used increases energy metabolism, faster wing-beat frequencies, and lower wing loadings to drive greater flight performance and subsequent rapid colonization of new habitats. In contrast, FAW-mC individuals adapt with more relaxed mitochondria and shuttle energetics into maternal investment, observed as faster development rate and higher fecundity. The presence of two different mitochondria types within FAW has the potential to significantly expand the range of damage and enhance competitive advantage. Overall, the study describes a novel invasion mechanism displayed by the FAW population that facilitates its expansion and establishment in new environments.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evolutionary history, potential intermediate animal host, and cross-species analyses of SARS-CoV-2

To investigate the evolutionary history of the recent outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in China, a total of 70 genomes of virus strains from China and elsewhere with sampling dates between 24 December 2019 and 3 February 2020 were analyzed. To explore the potential intermediate animal host of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, we reanalyzed virome data sets from pangolins and representative SARS-related coronaviruses isolates from bats, with particular attention paid to the spike glycoprotein gene. We performed phylogenetic, split network, transmission network, likelihood-mapping, and comparative analyses of the genomes. Additionally, based on Bayesian time-scaled phylogenetic analysis using the tip-dating method, we estimated the time to the most recent common ancestor and evolutionary rate of SARS-CoV-2, which ranged from 22 to 24 November 2019 and 1.19 to 1.31 × 10 -3 substitutions per site per year, respectively. Our results also revealed that the BetaCoV/bat/Yunnan/RaTG13/2013 virus was more similar to the SARS-CoV-2 virus than the coronavirus obtained from the two pangolin samples (SRR10168377 and SRR10168378). We also identified a unique peptide (PRRA) insertion in the human SARS-CoV-2 virus, which may be involved in the proteolytic cleavage of the spike protein by cellular proteases, and thus could impact host range and transmissibility. Interestingly, the coronavirus carried by pangolins did not have the RRAR motif. Therefore, we concluded that the human SARS-CoV-2 virus, which is responsible for the recent outbreak of COVID-19, did not come directly from pangolins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The effects of different types of mulch on soil properties and tea production and quality

Abstract BACKGROUND Tea is an important economic crop in China. Mulching, a modern agricultural practice, can modify the soil microenvironment and maintain the crop yield. RESULTS To investigate the effect of different mulching modes on tea plant growth, filed experiments were conducted in a Shizipu tea plantation located in Langxi Country (Xuanchen City, Anhui Province, China). Five treatments were carried out in a randomized complete block arrangement: (i) clean tillage (control); (ii) black plastic film; (iii) weed barrier fabric; (iv) rice straw mulch; and (v) intercropping with Vulpia myuros . The effects of different mulch modes on soil temperature, water moisture, soil compactness, root activity, soil enzyme activity and nutrition status on tea yield, quality and economic benefits were compared at the harvest stage. In the present study, compared with other mulch treatments, intercropping with V. myuros significantly reduced the topsoil temperature (to an optimum temperature) and soil compactness, and increased the water holding capacity in the deep soil layer, which contributed to increased tea root activity and respiration. Furthermore, intercropping with V. myuros significantly increased soil enzymes activity, soil organic matter, and the available nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in the main root zone. Therefore, the stronger tea root activity accelerated nutrition uptake and increased the tea yield and quality‐related components of the tea, thus resulting in a larger average net income. CONCLUSION Intercropping with V. myuros could serve as a profitable agricultural method for tea production. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry

Xianchen, Zhang↗
DOE OSTI2020

Degradation in photovoltaic encapsulation strength of attachment: Results of the first PVQAT TG5 artificial weathering study

Delamination of the encapsulant in photovoltaic (PV) module technology results in immediate optical loss and may enable subsequent corrosion or mechanical damage. The effects of artificial weathering were not previously known; therefore, an empirical study was performed to survey the factors most affecting adhesion, including the ultraviolet (UV) source (ie, Xe or fluorescent lamp[s]), the optical filters for the lamp, the chamber temperature, and the relative humidity. Natural weathering was also performed at locations, including the following: Golden, Colorado; Miami, Florida; Phoenix, Arizona; QiongHai, China; Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; and Turpan, China. Specimens were constructed using a laminated glass/poly (ethylene-co-vinyl acetate)/glass geometry. The compressive shear test (CST) was used to quantify the mechanical strength of attachment, taken as a proxy for adhesion. The fractography of select specimens (including cross-sectional optical microscopy) was used to verify the failure mode (delamination or decohesion). Additional analysis of the local solar spectrum as well as the specimen temperature was performed to interpret the results of natural weathering. The goals of this study include to identify the most significant stressors, clarify where strong coupling may occur between stressors, and validate accelerated test results relative to natural weathering. The importance of specimen conditioning (for moisture) and hygrometric degradation as well as the effects of UV degradation are identified in this paper.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Clean Energy Manufacturing: Renewable Energy Technology Benchmarks

The manufacturing of clean energy technologies has become a global enterprise. An analysis of four clean energy technology manufacturing processes—wind turbine components, crystalline silicon solar photovoltaic modules, light-duty vehicle lithium-ion battery cells, and light-emitting diodes—was conducted to provide a reference point for comparison over time as this sector evolves. The manufacturing supply chain analysis included processing of raw materials, making required subcomponents, and assembling final products, using benchmarks that crossed 12 economies: Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, South Korea, Republic of China (Taiwan), the United Kingdom, and the United States. Larger economies, with extensive manufacturing supply chains and high prevailing wages, tend to retain more value added from clean energy manufacturing than small economies. Manufacturing of clean energy technologies drives extensive trade among economies to support the widely distributed supply chain links. Production of wind turbine components and photovoltaic modules is more centralized than production of light-emitting diodes and lithium-ion battery cells. Across the four clean energy technologies evaluated, there was generally an excess of manufacturing capacity relative to global supply.

benchmarks↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the pressure and temperature dependence of adsorption densities and other thermodynamic properties in gas shales

Black shale source rocks have become a key natural gas resource in the US and China. Unlike in conventional hydrocarbon reservoirs, a significant fraction of the gas in shales is adsorbed onto the inordinate specific surface areas (SSA) of micropores inside organic matter with densities exceeding those of bulk gas by an order of magnitude. Yet, the distribution of adsorbed versus bulk gas remains poorly understood. Experiments measure excess adsorption isotherms, which are corrected to absolute adsorption amounts by a factor that involves the density, ρ abs , of the adsorption layer(s). Constant values of ρ abs are widely used in the literature but, we argue, are inconsistent with the pressure- and temperature-dependence of adsorption behavior. In this work, we propose a more reliable approach that assumes a constant volume of each adsorption layer that can be determined from the SSA of the substrate. We measure nine high-pressure methane excess adsorption isotherms up to 15 MPa for three shale samples from China and Germany at temperatures of 65, 75, and 95 °C, and low-pressure carbon dioxide and nitrogen isotherms to estimate the SSA. We also investigate another 24 isotherms at 35, 50, and 60° C or 8 Chinese shale samples and 3 isotherms at 60, 90, and 120° C for an Argentinian shale sample from the literature. A new variation of the multi-layer Ono-Kondo lattice model is introduced to derive the temperature and pressure dependent adsorption layer densities, which are subsequently used to obtain the absolute adsorption isotherms of interest. Finally, this practical methodology has the potential to significantly improve our estimates of shale gas-in-place resources, and adsorption modeling more broadly.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Population genomics provides insights into the genetic basis of adaptive evolution in the mushroom-forming fungus Lentinula edodes

Introduction: Mushroom-forming fungi comprise diverse species that develop complex multicellular structures. In cultivated species, both ecological adaptation and artificial selection have driven genome evolution. However, little is known about the connections among genotype, phenotype and adaptation in mushroom-forming fungi. Objectives: This study aimed to (1) uncover the population structure and demographic history of Lentinula edodes, (2) dissect the genetic basis of adaptive evolution in L. edodes, and (3) determine if genes related to fruiting body development are involved in adaptive evolution. Methods: We analyzed genomes and fruiting body-related traits (FBRTs) in 133 L. edodes strains and conducted RNA-seq analysis of fruiting body development in the YS69 strain. Combined methods of genomic scan for divergence, genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and RNA-seq were used to dissect the genetic basis of adaptive evolution. Results: We detected three distinct subgroups of L. edodes via single nucleotide polymorphisms, which showed robust phenotypic and temperature response differentiation and correlation with geographical distribution. Demographic history inference suggests that the subgroups diverged 36,871 generations ago. Moreover, L. edodes cultivars in China may have originated from the vicinity of Northeast China. A total of 942 genes were found to be related to genetic divergence by genomic scan, and 719 genes were identified to be candidates underlying FBRTs by GWAS. Integrating results of genomic scan and GWAS, 80 genes were detected to be related to phenotypic differentiation. A total of 364 genes related to fruiting body development were involved in genetic divergence and phenotypic differentiation. Conclusion: Adaptation to the local environment, especially temperature, triggered genetic divergence and phenotypic differentiation of L. edodes. A general model for genetic divergence and phenotypic differentiation during adaptive evolution in L. edodes, which involves in signal perception and transduction, transcriptional regulation, and fruiting body morphogenesis, was also integrated here.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A combined management scheme to simultaneously mitigate As and Cd concentrations in rice cultivated in contaminated paddy soil

Paddy soils in southern China are heavily co-polluted by arsenic (As) and cadmium (Cd). The accumulation of these contaminants in rice grains may pose a high health risk. We evaluated the impact of adjusted water management practice (i.e., conventional irrigation and aerobic treatment after heading stage) and the application of two immobilization agents (i.e., CaO and Fe2O3) on the accumulation of As and Cd in rice grains of three rice varieties (i.e., Jinyou-463, Jinyou-268, and Mabayouzhan). The different schemes were tested via conducting a field experiment in paddy soil in Shaoguan, Guangdong Province, China. The results showed that the combined scheme (selecting Jinyou-268, aerobic water management after the heading stage, and 0.09% CaO and 0.5% Fe2O3 amendments) exhibited the best performance in the reduction of As and Cd accumulation in rice grains. This combined scheme decreased the grain As concentration by 26.19% and maintained the Cd at a low level (0.056 mg/kg) as compared to the use of local conventional irrigation patterns. Moreover, health risk assessment demonstrated that by applying the optimal scheme, neither As nor Cd content in rice had carcinogenic risk. However, the grain As remains at a high non-carcinogenic risk. We suggest that future field study design should fully incorporate the uncertainty of the natural environment to make the research conclusions more feasible for popularization and utilization. This study demonstrated an approach of utilizing the synergy effects of various measures for safe rice production in fields subjected to As and Cd contaminations.

Yang, Xiao↗
DOE OSTI2020

Agent-based modeling of supply disruptions in the global rare earths market

Several independent assessments have identified rare earth elements (REEs) as critical materials, notably neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (Pr), and dysprosium (Dy) used in permanent magnets. Factors affecting their criticality include expected growth in demand arising from their unique performance-enhancing properties in consumer, energy, and military applications and the supply risk associated with China's dominance in their production. We demonstrate the use of Argonne's Global Critical Materials (GCMat) agent-based model to explore the possible consequences to REE market dynamics of different types of regional supply disruptions including a temporary loss of production, shutdown of capacity, and diversion of supply. Results suggest that supply disruptions may foster earlier and more REE mine starts outside of China, although some of these mines may not be able to sustain operations post disruption. Further, price and associated market responses such as production, capacity, and demand tended to extend beyond the disruption period. Such market impacts in the magnet supply chain could affect the costs and availability of a number of emerging clean energy technology applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines. In the future, GCMat could be used to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies - including recycling, conservation, product substitution, and diversification of supplies - on reducing the severity of disruptions in REE markets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Decarbonizing or illusion? How carbon emissions of commercial building operations change worldwide

To lead the low-carbon transition in global buildings, this study is the first to use the generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) to identify the factors driving carbon emissions and assess the decarbonization performance in commercial building operations (CBOs) of sixteen countries during 2000–2019. Results show that (1) while the global carbon emissions from CBOs have increased at a modest rate of 0.9%/yr, this trend runs counter to the declining emissions in the U.S. (-1.1%/yr) and the significant growth in China (14.4%/yr), which can be attributed to the impact of economy-related factors. (2) The U.S. and China, as the largest emitters, contributed 66.8% of the samples’ decarbonization of CBOs (919.1 million tons of carbon dioxide). (3) Most countries’ CBOs had a decarbonization efficiency level of less than 10%, except for Spain (27.8%). Spain excelled in both areas of per capita and per floor area with an average efficiency of nearly 30%. Moreover, ridge regression successfully confirms the stability of GDIM results and it should be noted GDIM has limitations in characterizing the end-use activity. Overall, this study tracks the historical decarbonization of global CBOs and offers benchmarks for different emitters to forecast the dynamic of building emissions along with economic booms.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗