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At least 559 records · Page 31

Predictive Analytics for Hydropower Fleet Intelligence

A primary challenge in hydropower industry is the ability to maintain cost-competitiveness, reliability, and security of hydropower assets through evolving power system contexts and aging of the fleet. Maintaining cost-effective and reliable operations under these conditions is expected to require new modernization and maintenance paradigms for changing contexts. Changes in existing practices for O&M will require an understanding of the current state and health of hydropower assets, and the impact of changing paradigms on asset health and reliability. The Hydropower Fleet Intelligence project is developing and evaluating standardized methodologies and analysis tools for data-driven asset reliability and management technologies for hydropower, leading to eventual predictive maintenance planning, repair/replacement decision making, and asset-reliability and cost-optimized operations. A key question is the feasibility of using existing data sets at hydropower facilities to perform assessments of asset reliability. This document uses data from hydropower facilities to assess the potential for using available analytics methods for asset reliability estimates. In addition to reliability assessments, the feasibility of using existing analytics techniques for several other potential applications is discussed. Finally, a case study that a data-driven model is trained to learn nominal operations via vibration data from an asset of a certain plant, and then utilized to identify anomalies on a similar asset from a different plant, highlighting the generic use of proposed Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) approaches.

Yucesan, Yigit↗

A New Infrared Criterion for Selecting Active Galactic Nuclei to Lower Luminosities

We present a spectroscopic and photometric analysis of a sample of 416,288 galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) matched to mid-infrared (mid-IR) data from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). By using a new spectroscopic fitting package, GELATO (Galaxy/AGN Emission Line Analysis TOol), we are able to retrieve emission line fluxes and uncertainties for SDSS spectra and robustly determine the presence of broad lines and outflowing components, enabling us to investigate WISE color space as a function of optical spectroscopic properties. In addition, we pursue spectral energy distribution template fitting to assess the relative active galactic nucleus (AGN) contribution and nuclear obscuration to compare to existing mid-IR selection criteria with WISE. We present a selection criterion in mid-IR color space to select AGNs with an ~80% accuracy and a completeness of ~16%. This is the first mid-IR color selection defined by solely using the distribution of Type I and Type II optical spectroscopic AGNs in WISE mid-IR color space. Our selection is an improvement of ~50% in the completeness of targeting spectroscopic AGNs with WISE down to an SDSS r < 17.77 mag. In addition, our new criterion targets a less-luminous population of AGNs, with on average lower [O ιιι] luminosities by~30% ( > 0.1 dex) compared to typical WISE color–color selections. With upcoming large photometric surveys without corresponding spectroscopy, our method presents a way to select larger populations of AGNs at lower AGN luminosities and higher nuclear obscuration levels than traditional mid-IR color selections.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2

Abstract. The potential for multiyear prediction of impactful Earth system change remains relatively underexplored compared to shorter (subseasonal to seasonal) and longer (decadal) timescales. In this study, we introduce a new initialized prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) that is specifically designed to probe potential and actual prediction skill at lead times ranging from 1 month out to 2 years. The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) consists of a collection of 2-year-long hindcast simulations, with four initializations per year from 1970 to 2019 and an ensemble size of 20. A full suite of output is available for exploring near-term predictability of all Earth system components represented in CESM2. We show that SMYLE skill for El Niño–Southern Oscillation is competitive with other prominent seasonal prediction systems, with correlations exceeding 0.5 beyond a lead time of 12 months. A broad overview of prediction skill reveals varying degrees of potential for useful multiyear predictions of seasonal anomalies in the atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice. The SMYLE dataset, experimental design, model, initial conditions, and associated analysis tools are all publicly available, providing a foundation for research on multiyear prediction of environmental change by the wider community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PyFLEXTRKR: a flexible feature tracking Python software for convective cloud analysis

Abstract. This paper describes the new open-source framework PyFLEXTRKR (Python FLEXible object TRacKeR), a flexible atmospheric feature tracking software package with specific capabilities to track convective clouds from a variety of observations and model simulations. This software can track any atmospheric 2D objects and handle merging and splitting explicitly. The package has a collection of multi-object identification algorithms, scalable parallelization options, and has been optimized for large datasets including global high-resolution data. We demonstrate applications of PyFLEXTRKR on tracking individual deep convective cells and mesoscale convective systems from observations and model simulations ranging from large-eddy resolving (∼100s m) to mesoscale (∼10s km) resolutions. Visualization, post-processing, and statistical analysis tools are included in the package. New Lagrangian analyses of convective clouds produced by PyFLEXTRKR applicable to a wide range of datasets and scales facilitate advanced model evaluation and development efforts as well as scientific discovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SOSAT: Geohazard Risk Assessment in Carbon Sequestration Operations

Like all operations in which fluids are injected into the subsurface, geologic carbon storage (GCS) presents inherit risks that must be assessed and mitigated to successfully deploy such technology in the field. For example, alterations to pore pressure and the stress state due to fluid injection may trigger certain geohazards, such as potential fault activation and induced seismicity or unintentional hydraulic fracturing. Here we present capabilities for assessing these potential risks using the State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT): a Python library and web-based application capable of probabilistically estimating the subsurface state of stress informed by various field observations. Using posterior distributions of principal stress components, SOSAT can assess the risk of fault activation within the injection formation for either a critically oriented fault or a fault with a user-prescribed orientation. Additionally, SOSAT can estimate the probability of unintentional hydraulic fracturing of the intact reservoir rock. Here, we demonstrate these SOSAT capabilities using a hypothetical GCS site. This type of risk assessment can assist with the effective deployment of GCS technology in the field by informing safe design and management practices.

Haagenson, Ryan J.↗

CIEPAT for Photovoltaic System Resilience

The Cyber-Informed Engineering Photovoltaic Analysis Tool (CIEPAT) was developed in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER). This tool is an energy source subcomponent integrated into the CIEMAT ecosystem and is developed to enhance the security and resilience of Photovoltaic installations by incorporating Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into the deployment of PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Technoeconomic Analysis of the Miba Segmented Journal Bearing

This presentation describes a technoeconomic analysis using NLR's Windfarm Operations & Maintenance cost-Benefit Analysis Tool (WOMBAT) to compare operational expenses and levelized cost of energy for wind turbines using standard spherical roller bearings with a novel segmented journal bearing developed by Miba.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Solar Resource Measurements in Eugene, OR: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-07-00252

Site-specific, long-term, continuous, and high-resolution measurements of solar irradiance are important for developing renewable resource data. These data are used for several research and development activities consistent with the NLR mission: establish a national 3-year climatological database of measured solar irradiances; provide high quality ground-truth data for satellite remote sensing validation; support development of radiative transfer models for estimating solar irradiance from available meteorological observations; provide solar resource information needed for technology deployment and operations. Data acquired under this agreement will be available to the public through NLR's Measurement & Instrumentation Data Center – MIDC (http://www.nlr.gov/midc) Or the Renewable Resource Data Center - RReDC (http://rredc.nlr.gov). The MIDC offers a variety of standard data display, access, and analysis tools designed to address the needs of a wide user audience (e.g., industry, academia, and government interests).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Combining Reclaimed PET with Bio-Based Monomers Enables Plastics Upcycling

Less than 30% of PET plastic is recycled in the United States. The low reclamation rate may be due to mechanical recycling accounting for the majority of commercial PET recycling. Mechanical recycling yields a lower-quality recycled plastic than the process of chemically recycling back to the monomer phase, which can be energetically and economically expensive. In this work, recently published in Joule, reclaimed PET bottles are chemically recycled and converted into higher-value fiberglass-reinforced plastics (FRPs).This presentation will focus on the supply-chain level energy and greenhouse gas emissions intensities associated with this novel upcycling route. The Materials Flows through Industry supply chain analysis tool, developed at NREL, is used to estimate these impacts. Depending on the extent and speed of adoption, this strategy for plastic upcycling could lead to significant energy usage and emissions reductions over the traditional FRP supply chain. Overall, this approach may provide an economic incentive for plastics recycling and renewable feedstock use through the creation of higher-value FRPs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Scikit HEP Project -- overview and prospects

Scikit-HEP is a community-driven and community-oriented project with the goal of providing an ecosystem for particle physics data analysis in Python. Scikit-HEP is a toolset of approximately twenty packages and a few "affiliated" packages. It expands the typical Python data analysis tools for particle physicists. Each package focuses on a particular topic, and interacts with other packages in the toolset, where appropriate. Most of the packages are easy to install in many environments; much work has been done this year to provide binary "wheels" on PyPI and conda-forge packages. The Scikit-HEP project has been gaining interest and momentum, by building a user and developer community engaging collaboration across experiments. Some of the packages are being used by other communities, including the astroparticle physics community. An overview of the overall project and toolset will be presented, as well as a vision for development and sustainability.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Forecasting the Impact of Dual-credit Policy (2021-2023) on China's Electric Vehicle Market

China is well known for its ambition on large-scale vehicle electrification which currently is mainly driven by fuel economy and electric vehicle policies. This study adopts the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits (NEOCC) model, a vehicle policy analysis tool developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, to systematically quantify the potential impacts of the “Passenger Cars Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation” which was released in June 2020 for the timeframe 2021-2023, so called dual-credit policy (2021-2023). It is found that, under the dual-credit policy (2021-2023), the sales of low fuel consumption conventional vehicles will increase faster than they were in 2018-2020, and the share of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) could reach 11.4% by 2023 if it keeps the expansion as it was in 2017. Besides, the BEVs with long electric range (such as 400 km) and the plugin hybrid SUVs would be the most popular PEV types.

Ou, Shawn↗

Data Preservation at MINERvA

Over the past ten years, MINERvA has collected an accelerator neutrino interaction dataset that is uniquely relevant to the energy range of DUNE. These are the only currently available data at intermediate and high momentum transfers for multiple nuclear targets in the same beam. MINERvA is undertaking a campaign to preserve these data and make them publicly available so that they may be analyzed beyond the end of the MINERvA collaboration. We encourage the community to consider the development of centralized resources to enable long-term access to these data and analysis tools for the entire HEP community.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Bulk Electric System Protection Model Demonstration with 2011 Southwest Blackout in DCAT

Protection equipment modeling is critical to power systems planning and operational studies, it enables more accurate system response when control actions including protection relays and remedial action schemes (RAS) are adequately modeled and assessed. This paper incorporates a generic protection philosophy to the Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tools (DCAT), and demonstrates its effectiveness by modeling 2011 Pacific Southwest Blackout event autonomously.

Bulk Electric System, Protection, Blackout, DCAT↗

Long Term Damage Testing (NREL)

DOE's Regional Test Center program has fielded several strings of PV modules as part of their Long Term Testing program. Some of these modules have been installed since 2016 and have been exposed to severe weather events. A key to developing long lifespans for PV modules (in excess of 30 years) is understanding how damage and defects develop, propagate and progress. Researchers at the NREL Regional Test Center have started developing testing procedures and analysis tools in order to characterize modules in a controlled manner with the goal of understanding how damage spreads under normal operations. Characterization methods include EL and IR imaging, outdoor and indoor IV curves, and long term exposure monitoring. Modules to be evaluated will be chosen based on severity of defect, ability to track changes in defect and space requirements. The samples will be loaded at maximum power using grid-tied inverters or other means. Gathering and reporting on this data may help engineers and scientists design for damage and improve long-term performance.

crack damage↗

Snowmass2021 Computational Frontier White Paper: Cosmological Simulations and Modeling

Powerful new observational facilities will come online over the next decade, enabling a number of discovery opportunities in the "Cosmic Frontier", which targets understanding of the physics of the early universe, dark matter and dark energy, and cosmological probes of fundamental physics, such as neutrino masses and modifications of Einstein gravity. Synergies between different experiments will be leveraged to present new classes of cosmic probes as well as to minimize systematic biases present in individual surveys. Success of this observational program requires actively pairing it with a well-matched state-of-the-art simulation and modeling effort. Next-generation cosmological modeling will increasingly focus on physically rich simulations able to model outputs of sky surveys spanning multiple wavebands. These simulations will have unprecedented resolution, volume coverage, and must deliver guaranteed high-fidelity results for individual surveys as well as for the cross-correlations across different surveys. The needed advances are as follows: (1) Development of scientifically rich and broadly-scoped simulations, which capture the relevant physics and correlations between probes (2) Accurate translation of simulation results into realistic image or spectral data to be directly compared with observations (3) Improved emulators and/or data-driven methods serving as surrogates for expensive simulations, constructed from a finite set of full-physics simulations (4) Detailed and transparent verification and validation programs for both simulations and analysis tools. (Abridged)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The Essential Role of Nuclear Energy in Achieving Economy-wide Net-Zero Solutions

Governments and private industry around the world have established aggressive goals to achieve net-zero emissions for the power, industrial, and transportation sectors by 2050. These aggressive goals demand immediate action if we are to be successful, and they require us to think more holistically about our clean energy options. Programs within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) are addressing these holistic solutions. Traditionally, electricity generation and management and meeting energy demands for industry and transportation are considered independently. As we seek to achieve net-zero, we need to reassess energy demands. When we consider overall energy use, only one-third is in the form of electricity. Additional energy demands are in the form of heat or steam for industrial processes, as well as transportation. These sectors are much harder to abate, and electrification may not be the best option. Reducing environmental emissions at an affordable cost, while maintaining grid reliability and resilience, will require us to use all of the clean energy resources that we have available. That means coordinating the use of nuclear, renewables, and fossil fuels with carbon capture to meet growing demands for electricity, industrial applications, and mobility. The DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) program on Integrated Energy Systems (IES) is led by researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and work is conducted in partnership with an array of other DOE laboratories, industry, and academia. The primary focus of IES research is to assess the technical and economic potential of IES to enhance the flexibility and utilization of nuclear reactors working alongside renewable generators to meet an array of energy demands—thereby maximizing the utilization of clean energy resources across all energy sectors. Various energy applications and product streams beyond electricity are being evaluated, ranging from generation of potable water to production of hydrogen, fertilizers, synthetic fuels, and chemicals. The DOE-NE program additionally partners with the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office under the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to jointly fund the development of analysis tools, technologies, and nuclear-integrated hydrogen demonstration projects. This presentation highlights the wide array of R&D being conducted across multiple DOE-funded programs to develop and deploy nuclear-based IES that will be key to achieving our net-zero goals. By working with key collaborators in the nuclear industry, analytical studies are now becoming a reality in demonstration projects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

EVI-Equity

EVI-Equity (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure for Equity) is a $200k project, started around in June of 2021, with a funding from the Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO). The motivation was to create a new analytical capability that can enable us to quantify and investigate equitable access to and distribution of existing and future deployment of PEVs and EVSEs in neighborhoods, cities, states, and the nation. EVI-Equity is a bottom-up equity-focused analysis model, built upon individual (synthetic) households, aggregated by census block groups. It consists of four core components - community engagement, environmental profiling, household expenditures, and network design. Although there are some commonalities, EVI-Equity is not a vehicle choice model, charging simulation model, or transportation demand model. EVI-Equity is rather a cross-cutting analysis tool, dedicated for evaluating equitable EV adoption and EVSE deployment, encompassing and bridging a wide variety of related tools, models, and frameworks. Some of the results indicate the importance of used vehicle market for low-income households. The presentation also highlights similarities and variations as to preferred public charging locations. For example, regardless of household income, retail spots are the most preferred location for public charging, followed by curbside/street. However, the results also imply that the importance of workplace charging may vary with income - the lower the income, the less important. Environmental profiling results, with an example of ground-level ozone in Atlanta area, show that the contrast between the haves and the have nots of plug-in electric vehicles depends on location. The assessment of household expenditures illustrates the economic impact of home charging access on an individual household level - the lower the income, the greater the impact is. Lastly, Denver metro area and the state of South Dakota are used to showcase the impact of different network design of charging infrastructure, as well as alternative (vs. baseline/existing) electric vehicle adoption pattern.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Flexible Plant Operation and Generation Technical Program Plan for FY2023

This report presents the Technical Program Plan for Fiscal Years 2023-2027 (FY2023 to FY2027) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program—Flexible Plant Operation and Generation Research Pathway. The objective of this pathway is to carry out the research needed to help nuclear power plants diversify revenue generation for the life of these plants. The purpose of these research and development activities is two fold: (1) to reduce the technical and economic risks of implementing FPOG applications and (2) to provide guidance on relevant safety and environmental operating license reviews, amendments, and renewals. This pathway provides a clear understanding of the benefits of nuclear energy beyond electricity markets. A detailed description of the research and development activities that have been completed and that are planned for FY2023—FY2027 are presented in this report. These activities include completing the development of analysis tools to perform technical and economic assessments of realistic market opportunities for producing secondary energy products near nuclear power plants. They also include developing and demonstrating engineering systems and control concepts to dispatch thermal and electrical power to an industrial user. Additionally, this plan includes developing guidance for addressing potential regulatory and licensing requirements. In addition, the formation, purpose, and activities of a group referred to as the Hydrogen Regulatory Research and Review Group is discussed. An overview is also provided on the potential benefits of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) Bill that will support the commencement of Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that provides compelling production tax credits for nuclear electricity and clean hydrogen using nuclear energy.

08 HYDROGEN↗