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At least 541 records · Page 30

Evaluation of Novel Liner Concepts for Fan and Airframe Noise Reduction

This paper presents a review of four novel liner concepts: soft vanes, over-the-rotor liners, external liners, and flap side-edge liners. A number of similarities in the design and evaluation of these concepts emerged during these investigations. Since these were the first attempts to study these particular liner concepts, there was limited information to guide the design process. In all cases, the target frequencies (or frequency range) were known, but the optimum acoustic impedance and optimum liner placement were typically not known. For these cases, the maximum available surface was used and a c-impedance was targeted based on the assumption the sound field impinges on the surface at normal incidence. This choice proved fruitful for every application. An impedance prediction model was used to design variable-depth liner configurations, and a graphical design code (ILIAD) was developed to aid in this process. The ability to build increasingly complex liner configurations via additive manufacturing was key, such that multiple designs could quickly be tested in a normal incidence impedance tube. The Two-Thickness Method was used to evaluate available bulk materials, such that bulk liners could also be considered for each application. These novel liner concepts provide sufficient noise reduction to warrant further investigations.

Jones, M. G.↗

Lidar-Based Estimates of Above-Ground Biomass in the Continental US and Mexico Using Ground, Airborne, and Satellite Observations

Existing national forest inventory plots, an airborne lidar scanning (ALS) system, and a space profiling lidar system (ICESat-GLAS) are used to generate circa 2005 estimates of total aboveground dry biomass (AGB) in forest strata, by state, in the continental United States (CONUS) and Mexico. The airborne lidar is used to link ground observations of AGB to space lidar measurements. Two sets of models are generated, the first relating ground estimates of AGB to airborne laser scanning (ALS) measurements and the second set relating ALS estimates of AGB (generated using the first model set) to GLAS measurements. GLAS then, is used as a sampling tool within a hybrid estimation framework to generate stratum-, state-, and national-level AGB estimates. A two-phase variance estimator is employed to quantify GLAS sampling variability and, additively, ALS-GLAS model variability in this current, three-phase (ground-ALS-space lidar) study. The model variance component characterizes the variability of the regression coefficients used to predict ALS-based estimates of biomass as a function of GLAS measurements. Three different types of predictive models are considered in CONUS to determine which produced biomass totals closest to ground-based national forest inventory estimates - (1) linear (LIN), (2) linear-no-intercept (LNI), and (3) log-linear. For CONUS at the national level, the GLAS LNI model estimate (23.95 +/- 0.45 Gt AGB), agreed most closely with the US national forest inventory ground estimate, 24.17 +/- 0.06 Gt, i.e., within 1%. The national biomass total based on linear ground-ALS and ALS-GLAS models (25.87 +/- 0.49 Gt) overestimated the national ground-based estimate by 7.5%. The comparable log-linear model result (63.29 +/-1.36 Gt) overestimated ground results by 261%. All three national biomass GLAS estimates, LIN, LNI, and log-linear, are based on 241,718 pulses collected on 230 orbits. The US national forest inventory (ground) estimates are based on 119,414 ground plots. At the US state level, the average absolute value of the deviation of LNI GLAS estimates from the comparable ground estimate of total biomass was 18.8% (range: Oregon,−40.8% to North Dakota, 128.6%). Log-linear models produced gross overestimates in the continental US, i.e., N2.6x, and the use of this model to predict regional biomass using GLAS data in temperate, western hemisphere forests is not appropriate. The best model form, LNI, is used to produce biomass estimates in Mexico. The average biomass density in Mexican forests is 53.10 +/- 0.88 t/ha, and the total biomass for the country, given a total forest area of 688,096 sq km, is 3.65 +/- 0.06 Gt. In Mexico, our GLAS biomass total underestimated a 2005 FAO estimate (4.152 Gt) by 12% and overestimated a 2007/8 radar study's figure (3.06 Gt) by 19%.

Hybrid 3-Phase sampling↗

Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including environmental factors, factors associated with the fall event, mass and anthropometric values of the astronaut, BMD characteristics, characteristics of the relationship between BMD and bone strength and bone fracture characteristics. The uncertainty in these factors is captured through the use of parameter distributions and the fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. To determine parameter sensitivity, a correlation coefficient is found between the sample set of each model parameter and the calculated fracture probabilities. Each parameters contribution to the variance is found by squaring the correlation coefficients, dividing by the sum of the squared correlation coefficients, and multiplying by 100. Results: Sensitivity analyses of BFxRM simulations of preflight, 0 days post-flight and 365 days post-flight falls onto the hip revealed a subset of the twelve factors within the model which cause the most variation in the fracture predictions. These factors include the spring constant used in the hip biomechanical model, the midpoint FRI parameter within the equation used to convert FRI to fracture probability and preflight BMD values. Future work: Plans are underway to update the BFxRM by incorporating bone strength information from finite element models (FEM) into the bone strength portion of the BFxRM. Also, FEM bone strength information along with fracture outcome data will be incorporated into the FRI to fracture probability.

mathematical models↗

Modal Correlation of Complex Aerospace Joints Using Automated Variable Substitution

A critical task involved with being able to predict flight loads accurately in aerospace finite element models (FEMs) is the prior verification of the FEMs by conducting modal survey testing (MST). Experience comparing dynamic response of initial FEMs to MST data tends to demonstrate that FEMs can have unacceptable accuracy even when best modeling practices are followed. One inherent source of inaccuracy in linear dynamic FEMs is the modeling of nonlinear joints with mechanisms such as spherical bearings. These joints are usually designed to freely translate or rotate under the high levels of loading experienced in flight. Engineers who create linear FEMs conventionally model these joints without any stiffness in the mechanism degrees of freedom to meet this design intent. However, inaccuracy is observed during test validation of these FEMs, which usually relies on low-level force excitation orders of magnitude below flight load levels. This low-level modal test rarely overcomes the joint friction that is present, and thus the mechanism joints are able to react loads. This divide between the test results and the FEM creates a significant challenge to the engineer who is performing the correlation, in that the engineer has no basis for what stiffness value should be used to make the FEM match the test results. A compounding challenge is that complicated built-up aerospace structures commonly have multiple joints through a load path where each joint will “stick” and “slip” at different levels of force input. Explicitly matching the dynamics of a system containing these nonlinear mechanisms would require a nonlinear FEM, which is prohibitively costly for dynamic simulations of most aerospace systems. The objective of this paper is to present a workflow that can efficiently cycle through many iterations of a FEM, allowing a Monte Carlo style examination of the design space to identify candidate stiffness values for nonlinear mechanism joints. The outlined approach is specific to MSC Nastran and utilizes MSC Nastran’s symbolic substitution capabilities, coupled with the IMAT™ and Attune™ software packages developed by ATA Engineering, Inc. (ATA). The workflow is demonstrated with a case study from the correlation effort for The Boeing Company’s Crew Space Transportation (CST)-100 Starliner FEM. Keywords: Correlation, MSC Nastran, IMAT™, Attune™, Finite Element Model, Modal Testing

Correlation↗

Modeling the Stochastic Response of Fiber Reinforced Composites with Varied Representative Volume Element Sizes

Fiber reinforced composites are desirable in applications where low weight and high strength are needed, but are susceptible to variability and flaws during manufacturing, making failure predictions difficult. These flaws may occur at the microscale where mechanical properties vary locally due to regions of fiber clusters and matrix pockets. In this study, a multiscale approach was taken to model 3-point bend, 4-point bend, and tensile experiments of a unidirectional composite from only having microstructure scans of these samples and constituent properties from literature. These scans were sampled with different sized windows, and statistically equivalent microstructures were generated, then simulated for stiffness, strength, and fracture toughness using a reduced order micromechanical model and NASA’s Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT). Mesoscale models were created with equivalent element sizes to microstructures and properties sampled from microscale simulation results. Results showed how microscale size affects certain mechanical properties. Also shown is how well mesoscale models agree to experiments when using stochastic element properties and varying element size.

microstructure↗

Optimizing tuning masses for helicopter rotor blade vibration reduction including computed airloads and comparison with test data

The development and validation of an optimization procedure to systematically place tuning masses along a rotor blade span to minimize vibratory loads are described. The masses and their corresponding locations are the design variables that are manipulated to reduce the harmonics of hub shear for a four-bladed rotor system without adding a large mass penalty. The procedure incorporates a comprehensive helicopter analysis to calculate the airloads. Predicting changes in airloads due to changes in design variables is an important feature of this research. The procedure was applied to a one-sixth, Mach-scaled rotor blade model to place three masses and then again to place six masses. In both cases the added mass was able to achieve significant reductions in the hub shear. In addition, the procedure was applied to place a single mass of fixed value on a blade model to reduce the hub shear for three flight conditions. The analytical results were compared to experimental data from a wind tunnel test performed in the Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel. The correlation of the mass location was good and the trend of the mass location with respect to flight speed was predicted fairly well. However, it was noted that the analysis was not entirely successful at predicting the absolute magnitudes of the fixed system loads.

Pritchard, Jocelyn I.↗

Internal structure of shock waves in disparate mass mixtures

The detailed flow structure of a normal shock wave for a gas mixture is investigated using the direct-simulation Monte Carlo method. A variable diameter hard-sphere (VDHS) model is employed to investigate the effect of different viscosity temperature exponents (VTE) for each species in a gas mixture. Special attention is paid to the irregular behavior in the density profiles which was previously observed in a helium-xenon experiment. It is shown that the VTE can have substantial effects in the prediction of the structure of shock waves. The variable hard-sphere model of Bird shows good agreement, but with some limitations, with the experimental data if a common VTE is chosen properly for each case. The VDHS model shows better agreement with the experimental data without adjusting the VTE. The irregular behavior of the light-gas component in shock waves of disparate mass mixtures is observed not only in the density profile, but also in the parallel temperature profile. The strength of the shock wave, the type of molecular interactions, and the mole fraction of heavy species have substantial effects on the existence and structure of the irregularities.

Chung, Chan-Hong↗

Additive Manufacturing Model-Based Process Metrics: Reduced Order Modeling of the Laser Powder Bed Fusion Process

The multi-scale and complex process of printing additively manufactured (AM) parts can have unexpected, but predictable, build conditions that result in material microstructure variability. In this work, we describe a fully parallel reduced order modeling approach that has been developed to evaluate the evolution of AM processes, termed the AM moment measure method. This method couples the known sequence of the AM process with a physically informed nearest neighbors’ calculation to map the conditions of a part-scale build. The result is a map of the build that is derived directly from build files or in-situ process monitoring sensors. The methodology and terminology of the approach will be described, and computed build maps will be calculated and compared for various laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) builds of Ti-6Al-4V. Such comparative results develop understanding of how the sequential process actions can affect the LPBF-AM build quality and microstructure variability.

Laser Powder Bed Fusion↗

Sensitivity of solar-cell performance to atmospheric variables. 2: Dissimilar cells at several locations

Several solar cells having dissimilar spectral response curves and cell construction were measured at various locations in the United States to determine sensitivity of cell performance to atmospheric water vapor and turbidity. The locations selected represent a broad range of summer atmospheric conditions, from clear and dry to turbid and humid. Cell short circuit current under direct normal incidence sunlight, the intensity, water vapor and turbidity were measured. Regression equations were developed from the limited data base in order to provide a single method of prediction of cell current sensitivity to the atmospheric variables.

Klucher, T. M.↗

On the Prediction of Surface Melt Over the Greenland Ice Sheet at NWP and S2S Timescales

Greenland surface melt “events” – encompassing large swaths of the ice sheet over approximately 4-10 day periods – have occurred with increasing frequency in the 21st Century. Surface processes are significant to the ice sheet’s overall contribution to sea level. In addition, the sudden onset of widespread surface melt produces hazardous conditions for researchers and for communities adjacent to the ice sheet. The mechanisms producing melt events, their associated large-scale forcing, and timescales of interest are highly variable and poorly understood. Here we examine the predictability of melt events in a numerical weather prediction system (NWP) and a subseasonal-to-seasonal system (S2S). The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office forward processing (GMAO-FP) is an NWP system that incorporates an evolving, global hybrid 4D ensemble–variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation system and a state-of-the-art model that is run twice-daily with forecasts out to five and ten days. The GMAO S2S system is a hindcast-anomaly, coupled-model prediction system initialized with an atmospheric analysis, and in situ and satellite ocean data assimilation. Both systems represent ice sheet surface hydrology and snowpack processes. We examine the performance of the systems over the period 2018-2023, a span that includes approximately nine significant events, against analyses and satellite-derived melt extent. In addition to extent, we examine related conditions and their role in the melt forecast, including the onset of both omega and Rex atmospheric blocking patterns, sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, water vapor transport, precipitation, and surface preconditioning. We further examine the tendency for false-alarm events in each system and assess reasons for the forecast performance. North Atlantic atmospheric blocking patterns leading to surface melt are well forecast by the NWP system out to around eight days, while the S2S system generally underestimates the magnitude of such events at monthly lead times. These systems suggest that while short term forecasts of ice sheet melt and melt events are relatively robust, S2S predictions of surface conditions are highly dependent on the ability of a coupled system to generate the short-term atmospheric conditions associated with surface melt events.

Richard Cullather↗

Medium-range, objective predictions of thunderstorm location and severity for aviation

This paper presents a computerized technique for medium-range (12-48h) prediction of both the location and severity of thunderstorms utilizing atmospheric predictions from the National Meteorological Center's limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM). A regional-scale analysis scheme is first used to examine the spatial and temporal distributions of forecasted variables associated with the structure and dynamics of mesoscale systems over an area of approximately 10 to the 6th sq km. The final prediction of thunderstorm location and severity is based upon an objective combination of these regionally analyzed variables. Medium-range thunderstorm predictions are presented for the late afternoon period of April 10, 1979, the day of the Wichita Falls, Texas tornado. Conventional medium-range thunderstorm forecasts, made from observed data, are presented with the case study to demonstrate the possible application of this objective technique in improving 12-48 h thunderstorm forecasts for aviation.

Wilson, G. S.↗

Evidence for Large Decadal Variability in the Tropical Mean Radiative Energy Budget

It is widely assumed that variations in the radiative energy budget at large time and space scales are very small. We present new evidence from a compilation of over two decades of accurate satellite data that the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) tropical radiative energy budget is much more dynamic and variable than previously thought. We demonstrate that the radiation budget changes are caused by changes In tropical mean cloudiness. The results of several current climate model simulations fall to predict this large observed variation In tropical energy budget. The missing variability in the models highlights the critical need to Improve cloud modeling in the tropics to support Improved prediction of tropical climate on Inter-annual and decadal time scales. We believe that these data are the first rigorous demonstration of decadal time scale changes In the Earth's tropical cloudiness, and that they represent a new and necessary test of climate models.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗

Mathematical model to estimate risk of calcium-containing renal stones

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Astronauts exposed to microgravity during the course of spaceflight undergo physiologic changes that alter the urinary environment so as to increase the risk of renal stone formation. This study was undertaken to identify a simple method with which to evaluate the potential risk of renal stone development during spaceflight. METHOD: We used a large database of urinary risk factors obtained from 323 astronauts before and after spaceflight to generate a mathematical model with which to predict the urinary supersaturation of calcium stone forming salts. RESULT: This model, which involves the fewest possible analytical variables (urinary calcium, citrate, oxalate, phosphorus, and total volume), reliably and accurately predicted the urinary supersaturation of the calcium stone forming salts when compared to results obtained from a group of 6 astronauts who collected urine during flight. CONCLUSIONS: The use of this model will simplify both routine medical monitoring during spaceflight as well as the evaluation of countermeasures designed to minimize renal stone development. This model also can be used for Earth-based applications in which access to analytical resources is limited.

NASA Center JSC↗

Carpet plot data format

Analysis and interpretation of data is the crucial phase of the decision making process. The interplay between variables must be considered as to their relative significance upon the final result, and sometimes time-sensitive decisions must be made when actual events deviate from predicted information, such as Apollo 13. As the number of variables increases past say four, the traditional method of cross-plotting tends to break down, and digital/analog results cannot present a sharply defined method of analysis. A graphical system, the carpet plot, is presented in which an unlimited number of complicated relationships of variables can be evaluated.

Byrne, J. M.↗

The Plane-parallel Albedo Bias of Liquid Clouds from MODIS Observations

In our most advanced modeling tools for climate change prediction, namely General Circulation Models (GCMs), the schemes used to calculate the budget of solar and thermal radiation commonly assume that clouds are horizontally homogeneous at scales as large as a few hundred kilometers. However, this assumption, used for convenience, computational speed, and lack of knowledge on cloud small scale variability, leads to erroneous estimates of the radiation budget. This paper provides a global picture of the solar radiation errors at scales of approximately 100 km due to warm (liquid phase) clouds only. To achieve this, we use cloud retrievals from the instrument MODIS on the Terra and Aqua satellites, along with atmospheric and surface information, as input into a GCM-style radiative transfer algorithm. Since the MODIS product contains information on cloud variability below 100 km we can run the radiation algorithm both for the variable and the (assumed) homogeneous clouds. The difference between these calculations for reflected or transmitted solar radiation constitutes the bias that GCMs would commit if they were able to perfectly predict the properties of warm clouds, but then assumed they were homogeneous for radiation calculations. We find that the global average of this bias is approx.2-3 times larger in terms of energy than the additional amount of thermal energy that would be trapped if we were to double carbon dioxide from current concentrations. We should therefore make a greater effort to predict horizontal cloud variability in GCMs and account for its effects in radiation calculations.

Oreopoulos, Lazaros↗

Sensor Web Dynamic Measurement Techniques and Adaptive Observing Strategies

Sensor Web observing systems may have the potential to significantly improve our ability to monitor, understand, and predict the evolution of rapidly evolving, transient, or variable environmental features and events. This improvement will come about by integrating novel data collection techniques, new or improved instruments, emerging communications technologies and protocols, sensor mark-up languages, and interoperable planning and scheduling systems. In contrast to today's observing systems, "event-driven" sensor webs will synthesize real- or near-real time measurements and information from other platforms and then react by reconfiguring the platforms and instruments to invoke new measurement modes and adaptive observation strategies. Similarly, "model-driven" sensor webs will utilize environmental prediction models to initiate targeted sensor measurements or to use a new observing strategy. The sensor web concept contrasts with today's data collection techniques and observing system operations concepts where independent measurements are made by remote sensing and in situ platforms that do not share, and therefore cannot act upon, potentially useful complementary sensor measurement data and platform state information. This presentation describes NASA's view of event-driven and model-driven Sensor Webs and highlights several research and development activities at the Goddard Space Flight Center.

Talabac, Stephen J.↗

Life Prediction Issues in Thermal/Environmental Barrier Coatings in Ceramic Matrix Composites

Issues and design requirements for the environmental barrier coating (EBC)/thermal barrier coating (TBC) life that are general and those specific to the NASA Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) development program have been described. The current state and trend of the research, methods in vogue related to the failure analysis, and long-term behavior and life prediction of EBCITBC systems are reported. Also, the perceived failure mechanisms, variables, and related uncertainties governing the EBCITBC system life are summarized. A combined heat transfer and structural analysis approach based on the oxidation kinetics using the Arrhenius theory is proposed to develop a life prediction model for the EBC/TBC systems. Stochastic process-based reliability approach that includes the physical variables such as gas pressure, temperature, velocity, moisture content, crack density, oxygen content, etc., is suggested. Benefits of the reliability-based approach are also discussed in the report.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

The development of a three-dimensional partially elliptic flow computer program for combustor research

A three dimensional, partially elliptic, computer program was developed. Without requiring three dimensional computer storage locations for all flow variables, the partially elliptic program is capable of predicting three dimensional combustor flow fields with large downstream effects. The program requires only slight increase of computer storage over the parabolic flow program from which it was developed. A finite difference formulation for a three dimensional, fully elliptic, turbulent, reacting, flow field was derived. Because of the negligible diffusion effects in the main flow direction in a supersonic combustor, the set of finite-difference equations can be reduced to a partially elliptic form. Only the pressure field was governed by an elliptic equation and requires three dimensional storage; all other dependent variables are governed by parabolic equations. A numerical procedure which combines a marching integration scheme with an iterative scheme for solving the elliptic pressure was adopted.

Pan, Y. S.↗