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At least 541 records · Page 30

Assessment of the 1997-1998 Asian Monsoon Anomalies

Using State-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analysis of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the Asian monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions. it is noted that some subcontinental regions such as all-India, or arbitrarily chosen land regions over East Asia, while important socio-economically, are not near the centers of influence from El Nino, hence are not necessarily representative of the response of the entire monsoon region to El Nino. The observed 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies attributable to basin- scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19%, leaving about 47% due to internal dynamics. Also noted is that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also monsoon regional coupled processes and their modulation by long-term climate change.

Lau, William K.-M.↗

Design Oriented Structural Modeling for Airplane Conceptual Design Optimization

The main goal for research conducted with the support of this grant was to develop design oriented structural optimization methods for the conceptual design of airplanes. Traditionally in conceptual design airframe weight is estimated based on statistical equations developed over years of fitting airplane weight data in data bases of similar existing air- planes. Utilization of such regression equations for the design of new airplanes can be justified only if the new air-planes use structural technology similar to the technology on the airplanes in those weight data bases. If any new structural technology is to be pursued or any new unconventional configurations designed the statistical weight equations cannot be used. In such cases any structural weight estimation must be based on rigorous "physics based" structural analysis and optimization of the airframes under consideration. Work under this grant progressed to explore airframe design-oriented structural optimization techniques along two lines of research: methods based on "fast" design oriented finite element technology and methods based on equivalent plate / equivalent shell models of airframes, in which the vehicle is modelled as an assembly of plate and shell components, each simulating a lifting surface or nacelle / fuselage pieces. Since response to changes in geometry are essential in conceptual design of airplanes, as well as the capability to optimize the shape itself, research supported by this grant sought to develop efficient techniques for parametrization of airplane shape and sensitivity analysis with respect to shape design variables. Towards the end of the grant period a prototype automated structural analysis code designed to work with the NASA Aircraft Synthesis conceptual design code ACS= was delivered to NASA Ames.

Livne, Eli↗

IRIS Product Recommendations

This report presents the Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU) evaluation of SIGMET Inc.'s Integrated Radar Information System (IRIS) Product Generator and recommendations for products emphasizing lightning and microburst tools. The IRIS Product Generator processes radar reflectivity data from the Weather Surveillance Radar, model 74C (WSR-74C), located on Patrick Air Force Base. The IRIS System was upgraded from version 6.12 to version 7.05 in late December 1999. A statistical analysis of atmospheric temperature variability over the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Weather Station provided guidance for the configuration of radar products that provide information on the mixed-phase (liquid and ice) region of clouds, between 0 C and -20 C. Mixed-phase processes at these temperatures are physically linked to electrification and the genesis of severe weather within convectively generated clouds. Day-to-day variations in the atmospheric temperature profile are of sufficient magnitude to warrant periodic reconfiguration of radar products intended for the interpretation of lightning and microburst potential of convectively generated clouds. The AMU also examined the radar volume-scan strategy to determine the scales of vertical gaps within the altitude range of the 0 C to -20 C isotherms over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/CCAFS area. This report present's two objective strategies for designing volume scans and proposes a modified scan strategy that reduces the average vertical gap by 37% as a means for improving radar observations of cloud characteristics in the critical 0 C to -20 C layer. The AMU recommends a total of 18 products, including 11 products that require use of the IRIS programming language and the IRIS User Product Insert feature. Included is a cell trends product and display, modeled after the WSR-88D cell trends display in use by the National Weather Service.

Short, David A.↗

Mapping Arid Vegetation Species Distributions in the White Mountains, Eastern California, Using AVIRIS, Topography, and Geology

Our challenge is to model plant species distributions in complex montane environments using disparate sources of data, including topography, geology, and hyperspectral data. From an ecologist's point of view, species distributions are determined by local environment and disturbance history, while spectral data are 'ancillary.' However, a remote sensor's perspective says that spectral data provide picture of what vegetation is there, topographic and geologic data are ancillary. In order to bridge the gap, all available data should be used to get the best possible prediction of species distributions using complex multivariate techniques implemented on a GIS. Vegetation reflects local climatic and nutrient conditions, both of which can be modeled, allowing predictive mapping of vegetation distributions. Geologic substrate strongly affects chemical, thermal, and physical properties of soils, while climatic conditions are determined by local topography. As elevation increases, precipitation increases and temperature decreases. Aspect, slope, and surrounding topography determine potential insolation, so that south-facing slopes are warmer and north-facing slopes cooler at a given elevation. Topographic position (ridge, slope, canyon, or meadow) and slope angle affect sediment accumulation and soil depth. These factors combine as complex environmental gradients, and underlie many features of plant distributions. Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data, digital elevation models, digitized geologic maps, and 378 ground control points were used to predictively map species distributions in the central and southern White Mountains, along the western boundary of the Basin and Range province. Minimum Noise Fraction (MNF) bands were calculated from the visible and near-infrared AVIRIS bands, and combined with digitized geologic maps and topographic variables using Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). CCA allows for modeling species 'envelopes' in multidimensional environmental space, which can then be projected across entire landscapes.

VandeVen, C.↗

Limits to Cloud Susceptibility

1-kilometer AVHRR observations of ship tracks in low-level clouds off the west coast of the U S. were used to determine limits for the degree to which clouds might be altered by increases in anthropogenic aerosols. Hundreds of tracks were analyzed to determine whether the changes in droplet radii, visible optical depths, and cloud top altitudes that result from the influx of particles from underlying ships were consistent with expectations based on simple models for the indirect effect of aerosols. The models predict substantial increases in sunlight reflected by polluted clouds due to the increases in droplet numbers and cloud liquid water that result from the elevated particle concentrations. Contrary to the model predictions, the analysis of ship tracks revealed a 15-20% reduction in liquid water for the polluted clouds. Studies performed with a large-eddy cloud simulation model suggested that the shortfall in cloud liquid water found in the satellite observations might be attributed to the restriction that the 1-kilometer pixels be completely covered by either polluted or unpolluted cloud. The simulation model revealed that a substantial fraction of the indirect effect is caused by a horizontal redistribution of cloud water in the polluted clouds. Cloud-free gaps in polluted clouds fill in with cloud water while the cloud-free gaps in the surrounding unpolluted clouds remain cloud-free. By limiting the analysis to only overcast pixels, the current study failed to account for the gap-filling predicted by the simulation model. This finding and an analysis of the spatial variability of marine stratus suggest new ways to analyze ship tracks to determine the limit to which particle pollution will alter the amount of sunlight reflected by clouds.

Coakley, James A., Jr.↗

Weight and the Future of Space Flight Hardware Cost Modeling

Weight has been used as the primary input variable for cost estimating almost as long as there have been parametric cost models. While there are good reasons for using weight, serious limitations exist. These limitations have been addressed by multi-variable equations and trend analysis in models such as NAFCOM, PRICE, and SEER; however, these models have not be able to address the significant time lags that can occur between the development of similar space flight hardware systems. These time lags make the cost analyst's job difficult because insufficient data exists to perform trend analysis, and the current set of parametric models are not well suited to accommodating process improvements in space flight hardware design, development, build and test. As a result, people of good faith can have serious disagreement over the cost for new systems. To address these shortcomings, new cost modeling approaches are needed. The most promising approach is process based (sometimes called activity) costing. Developing process based models will require a detailed understanding of the functions required to produce space flight hardware combined with innovative approaches to estimating the necessary resources. Particularly challenging will be the lack of data at the process level. One method for developing a model is to combine notional algorithms with a discrete event simulation and model changes to the total cost as perturbations to the program are introduced. Despite these challenges, the potential benefits are such that efforts should be focused on developing process based cost models.

Prince, Frank A.↗

Analysis of a Preloaded Bolted Joint in a Ceramic Composite Combustor

This paper presents the detailed analysis of a preloaded bolted joint incorporating ceramic materials. The objective of this analysis is to determine the suitability of a joint design for a ceramic combustor. The analysis addresses critical factors in bolted joint design including preload, preload uncertainty, and load factor. The relationship between key joint variables is also investigated. The analysis is based on four key design criteria, each addressing an anticipated failure mode. The criteria are defined in terms of margin of safety, which must be greater than zero for the design criteria to be satisfied. Since the proposed joint has positive margins of safety, the design criteria are satisfied. Therefore, the joint design is acceptable.

Hissam, D. Andy↗

A Polar Specific 20-year Data Set of Cloud Fraction and Height Derived from Satellite Radiances

This is a final report to fulfill reporting requirements on NASA grant NASA NAG5-11800. Jennifer Francis, PI at Rutgers University is currently continuing work on this project under a no-cost extension. Work at the University of Washington portion of the project is completed and reported here. Major accomplishments and results from this portion of the project include: 1) Extension and reprocessing of TOVS Polar Pathfinder (Path-P) data set; 2) Analysis of Arctic cloud variability; 3) Validation of Southern Hemisphere ocean cloud retrievals; 4) Intercompared cloud height information from AVHRR retrievals and surface-based cloud radar information.

Francis, Jennifer↗

Predicting motion sickness during parabolic flight

BACKGROUND: There are large individual differences in susceptibility to motion sickness. Attempts to predict who will become motion sick have had limited success. In the present study, we examined gender differences in resting levels of salivary amylase and total protein, cardiac interbeat intervals (R-R intervals), and a sympathovagal index and evaluated their potential to correctly classify individuals into two motion sickness severity groups. METHODS: Sixteen subjects (10 men and 6 women) flew four sets of 10 parabolas aboard NASA's KC-135 aircraft. Saliva samples for amylase and total protein were collected preflight on the day of the flight and motion sickness symptoms were recorded during each parabola. Cardiovascular parameters were collected in the supine position 1-5 days before the flight. RESULTS: There were no significant gender differences in sickness severity or any of the other variables mentioned above. Discriminant analysis using salivary amylase, R-R intervals and the sympathovagal index produced a significant Wilks' lambda coefficient of 0.36, p=0.006. The analysis correctly classified 87% of the subjects into the none-mild sickness or the moderate-severe sickness group. CONCLUSIONS: The linear combination of resting levels of salivary amylase, high-frequency R-R interval levels, and a sympathovagal index may be useful in predicting motion sickness severity.

manned↗

Cardiovascular responses of semi-arboreal snakes to chronic, intermittent hypergravity

Cardiovascular functions were studied in semi-arboreal rat snakes (Elaphe obsoleta) following long-term, intermittent exposure to +1.5 Gz (head-to-tail acceleration) on a centrifuge. Snakes were held in a nearly straight position within horizontal plastic tubes during periods of centrifugation. Centrifugal acceleration, therefore, subjected snakes to a linear force gradient with the maximal force being experienced at the tail. Compared to non-centrifuged controls, Gz-acclimated snakes showed greater increases of heart rate during head-up tilt or acceleration, greater sensitivity of arterial pressure to circulating catecholamines, higher blood levels of corticosterone, and higher blood ratios of prostaglandin F 2 alpha/prostaglandin E2. Cardiovascular tolerance to increased gravity during graded Gz acceleration was measured as the maximum (caudal) acceleration force at which carotid arterial blood flow became null. When such tolerances were adjusted for effects of body size and other continuous variables incorporated into an analysis of covariance, the difference between the adjusted mean values of control and acclimated snakes (2.37 and 2.84 Gz, respectively) corresponded closely to the 0.5 G difference between the acclimation G (1.5) and Earth gravity (1.0). As in other vertebrates, cardiovascular tolerance to Gz stress tended to be increased by acclimation, short body length, high arterial pressure, and comparatively large blood volume. Voluntary body movements were important for promoting carotid blood flow at the higher levels of Gz stress.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Transport in the Subtropical Lowermost Stratosphere during CRYSTAL-FACE

We use in situ measurements of water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), and total reactive nitrogen (NO(y)) obtained during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign in July 2002 to study summertime transport in the subtropical lowermost stratosphere. We use an objective methodology to distinguish the latitudinal origin of the sampled air masses despite the influence of convection, and we calculate backward trajectories to elucidate their recent geographical history. The methodology consists of exploring the statistical behavior of the data by performing multivariate clustering and agglomerative hierarchical clustering calculations, and projecting cluster groups onto principal component space to identify air masses of like composition and hence presumed origin. The statistically derived cluster groups are then examined in physical space using tracer-tracer correlation plots. Interpretation of the principal component analysis suggests that the variability in the data is accounted for primarily by the mean age of air in the stratosphere, followed by the age of the convective influence, and lastly by the extent of convective influence, potentially related to the latitude of convective injection [Dessler and Sherwuud, 2004]. We find that high-latitude stratospheric air is the dominant source region during the beginning of the campaign while tropical air is the dominant source region during the rest of the campaign. Influence of convection from both local and non-local events is frequently observed. The identification of air mass origin is confirmed with backward trajectories, and the behavior of the trajectories is associated with the North American monsoon circulation.

Pittman, Jasna V.↗

Transport in the Subtropical Lowermost Stratosphere during the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment

We use in situ measurements of water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), and total reactive nitrogen (NOy) obtained during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign in July 2002 to study summertime transport in the subtropical lowermost stratosphere. We use an objective methodology to distinguish the latitudinal origin of the sampled air masses despite the influence of convection, and we calculate backward trajectories to elucidate their recent geographical history. The methodology consists of exploring the statistical behavior of the data by performing multivariate clustering and agglomerative hierarchical clustering calculations and projecting cluster groups onto principal component space to identify air masses of like composition and hence presumed origin. The statistically derived cluster groups are then examined in physical space using tracer-tracer correlation plots. Interpretation of the principal component analysis suggests that the variability in the data is accounted for primarily by the mean age of air in the stratosphere, followed by the age of the convective influence, and last by the extent of convective influence, potentially related to the latitude of convective injection (Dessler and Sherwood, 2004). We find that high-latitude stratospheric air is the dominant source region during the beginning of the campaign while tropical air is the dominant source region during the rest of the campaign. Influence of convection from both local and nonlocal events is frequently observed. The identification of air mass origin is confirmed with backward trajectories, and the behavior of the trajectories is associated with the North American monsoon circulation.

Pittman, Jasna V.↗

Predicting Motion Sickness During Parabolic Flight

Background: There are large individual differences in susceptibility to motion sickness. Attempts to predict who will become motion sick have had limited success. In the present study we examined gender differences in resting levels of salivary amylase and total protein, cardiac interbeat intervals (R-R intervals), and a sympathovagal index and evaluated their potential to correctly classify individuals into two motion sickness severity groups. Methods: Sixteen subjects (10 men and 6 women) flew 4 sets of 10 parabolas aboard NASA's KC-135 aircraft. Saliva samples for amylase and total protein were collected preflight on the day of the flight and motion sickness symptoms were recorded during each parabola. Cardiovascular parameters were collected in the supine position 1-5 days prior to the flight. Results: There were no significant gender differences in sickness severity or any of the other variables mentioned above. Discriminant analysis using salivary amylase, R-R intervals and the sympathovagal index produced a significant Wilks' lambda coefficient of 0.36, p= 0.006. The analysis correctly classified 87% of the subjects into the none-mild sickness or the moderate-severe sickness group. Conclusions: The linear combination of resting levels of salivary amylase, high frequency R-R interval levels, and a sympathovagal index may be useful in predicting motion sickness severity.

Harm, Deborah L.↗

The 5 Hour Pulse Period and Broadband Spectrum of the Symbiotic X-Ray Binary 3A 1954+319

We present an analysis of the highly variable accreting X-ray pulsar 3A 1954+319 using 2005-2009 monitoring data obtained with INTEGRAL and Swift. This considerably extends the pulse period history and covers flaring episodes in 2005 and 2008. In 2006 the source was identified as one of only a few known symbiotic X-ray binaries, Le" systems composed of a neutron star accreting from the inhomogeneous medium around an M-giant star. The extremely long pulse period of approximately 5.3 h is directly visible in the 2008 INTEGRAL-ISGRI outburst light curve. The pulse profile is double peaked and not significantly energy dependent. During the outburst a strong spin-up of -1.8 x 10(exp -4) h h(exp -1) occurred. Between 2005 and 2008 a long term spin-down trend of 2.1 x 10(exp -5) h h(exp -1) was observed for the first time for this source. The 3-80 keV pulse peak spectrum of 3A 1954+319 during the 2008 flare could be well described by a thermal Comptonization model. We interpret the results within the framework of a recently developed quasi-spherical accretion model for symbiotic X-ray binaries.

Marcu, Diana M.↗

Estimation and Bias Correction of Aerosol Abundance using Data-driven Machine Learning and Remote Sensing

Air quality information is increasingly becoming a public health concern, since some of the aerosol particles pose harmful effects to peoples health. One widely available metric of aerosol abundance is the aerosol optical depth (AOD). The AOD is the integrated light extinction coefficient over a vertical atmospheric column of unit cross section, which represents the extent to which the aerosols in that vertical profile prevent the transmission of light by absorption or scattering. The comparison between the AOD measured from the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) system and the satellite MODIS instruments at 550 nm shows that there is a bias between the two data products. We performed a comprehensive analysis exploring possible factors which may be contributing to the inter-instrumental bias between MODIS and AERONET. The analysis used several measured variables, including the MODIS AOD, as input in order to train a neural network in regression mode to predict the AERONET AOD values. This not only allowed us to obtain an estimate, but also allowed us to infer the optimal sets of variables that played an important role in the prediction. In addition, we applied machine learning to infer the global abundance of ground level PM2.5 from the AOD data and other ancillary satellite and meteorology products. This research is part of our goal to provide air quality information, which can also be useful for global epidemiology studies.

Malakar, Nabin K.↗

Downscaling a Global Climate Model to Simulate Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional and Urban Air Quality

Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12km by 12km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major U.S. cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the U.S. during fall (Western U.S., Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern U.S), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the U.S. which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

meteorological parameters↗

Ambulation Increases Decompression Sickness in Spacewalk Simulations

Musculoskeletal activity has the potential to both improve and compromise decompression safety. Exercise enhances inert gas elimination during oxygen breathing prior to decompression (prebreathe), but it may also promote bubble nuclei formation (nucleation), which can lead to gas phase separation and bubble growth and increase the risk of decompression sickness (DCS). The timing, pattern and intensity of musculoskeletal activity and the level of tissue supersaturation may be critical to the net effect. Understanding the relationships is important to evaluate exercise prebreathe protocols and quantify decompression risk in gravity and microgravity environments. Data gathered during NASA's Prebreathe Reduction Program (PRP) studies combined oxygen prebreathe and exercise followed by low pressure (4.3 psi; altitude equivalent of 30,300 ft [9,235 m]) microgravity simulation to produce two protocols used by astronauts preparing for extravehicular activity. Both the Phase II/CEVIS (cycle ergometer vibration isolation system) and ISLE (in-suit light exercise) trials eliminated ambulation to more closely simulate the microgravity environment. The CEVIS results (35 male, 10 female) serve as control data for this NASA/Duke study to investigate the influence of ambulation exercise on bubble formation and the subsequent risk of DCS. METHODS Four experiments will replicate the CEVIS exercise-enhanced oxygen prebreathe protocol, each with a different exception. The first of these is currently underway. Experiment 1 - Subjects complete controlled ambulation (walking in place with fixed cadence and step height) during both preflight and at 4.3 psi instead of remaining nonambulatory throughout. Experiment 2 - Subjects remain non-ambulatory during the preflight period and ambulatory at 4.3 psi. Experiment 3 - Subjects ambulate during the preflight period and remain non-ambulatory at 4.3 psi. Experiment 4 - The order of heavy and light exercise employed in the CEVIS protocol is reversed, with the light exercise occurring first (subjects remain non-ambulatory throughout). Decompression stress is assessed with non-invasive ultrasound during each of 14 epochs of a 4 hour simulated spacewalk at 4.3 psi; aural Doppler is used to monitor bubbles (Spencer grade 0-IV scale) passing through the pulmonary artery, and two-dimensional echocardiographic imaging is used to look for left ventricular gas emboli (LVGE; the presence of which is a test termination criterion). Venous blood is collected at baseline and twice following repressurization to determine if the decompression stress is correlated with microparticles (cell fragments) accumulation. The plan is to test 25-50 subjects in each experiment. Fisher Exact Tests (one-tailed) are used to compare test and control groups. Trials are suspended when the DCS or grade IV VGE observations reach 70% confidence of DCS risk >15% and grade IV VGE risk >20%. RESULTS Experiment 1 was concluded with 20 complete trials (15 male, 5 female) since the statistical outcome would not change with five additional trials. The observed DCS was significantly greater in Experiment 1 than in CEVIS trials (4/20 [20%] vs. 0/45 [0%], respectively, p=0.007), as was the frequency of peak grade IV VGE (6/21 [29%; including one additional subject that presented grade IV VGE but whose trial was ended before completion when LVGE were observed] vs. 3/45 [7%], respectively, p=0.024). Experiment 3 trials are now underway, with 11 trials completed (10 male, 1 female). Preliminary results indicate no difference in observed DCS between Experiment 3 and CEVIS trials (1/11 [9%] vs. 0/45 [0%], respectively, p=0.196), or between Experiment 3 and Experiment 1 trials (p=0.405). The frequency of peak grade IV VGE in Experiment 3 (2/11 [18%]) did not differ from CEVIS or Experiment 1 trials (p=0.251 and p=0.425, respectively). Microparticle patterns are widely variable and still under analysis. DISCUSSION The results of the Experiment 1 trials support the thesis that decompression stress is increased by ambulation exercise, given the higher incidence of DCS and grade IV VGE when compared to the non-ambulatory PRP CEVIS trials. Experiment 3 trials are incomplete, but suggest that the effect of ambulation during ground level preflight oxygen breathing alone, when subjects are undersaturated with inert gas, may not differ in risk from ambulation at both preflight and spacesuit pressures, the latter when subjects are supersaturated with inert gas. Further trials are needed to confirm the relative effects of ambulation in undersaturated vs. supersaturated states and to determine whether light exercise facilitates the removal of heavy exercise-induced nucleation (Experiment 4).

Pollock, N. W.↗

Quantifying the Observability of CO2 Flux Uncertainty in Atmospheric CO2 Records Using Products from Nasa's Carbon Monitoring Flux Pilot Project

NASAs Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) Flux Pilot Project (FPP) was designed to better understand contemporary carbon fluxes by bringing together state-of-the art models with remote sensing datasets. Here we report on simulations using NASAs Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) which was used to evaluate the consistency of two different sets of observationally constrained land and ocean fluxes with atmospheric CO2 records. Despite the strong data constraint, the average difference in annual terrestrial biosphere flux between the two land (NASA Ames CASA and CASA-GFED) models is 1.7 Pg C for 2009-2010. Ocean models (NOBM and ECCO2-Darwin) differ by 35 in their global estimates of carbon flux with particularly strong disagreement in high latitudes. Based upon combinations of terrestrial and ocean fluxes, GEOS-5 reasonably simulated the seasonal cycle observed at northern hemisphere surface sites and by the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) while the model struggled to simulate the seasonal cycle at southern hemisphere surface locations. Though GEOS-5 was able to reasonably reproduce the patterns of XCO2 observed by GOSAT, it struggled to reproduce these aspects of AIRS observations. Despite large differences between land and ocean flux estimates, resulting differences in atmospheric mixing ratio were small, typically less than 5 ppmv at the surface and 3 ppmv in the XCO2 column. A statistical analysis based on the variability of observations shows that flux differences of these magnitudes are difficult to distinguish from natural variability, regardless of measurement platform.

FPP↗