Adapting Control Methods for Autonomous Exploration of Unknown Environments
Proposed missions to explore comets and moons will encounter environments that are hostile and unpredictable.
Autonomous↗
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Results for “unpredictability”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Prototyping an Onboard Scheduler for the Mars 2020 Rover
Efficiently operating a rover on the surface of Mars is challenging. Two factors combine to make this job particularly difficult: 1) communication opportunities are limited, 2) certain aspects of rover performance are difficult to predict. With limited communications, the rover must be given instructions on what to do for one or more Martian days at a time. In addition, the duration of many rover activities can be hard to predict, which leads to unpredictable energy use. Traditionally, conservatism is used to keep the rover safe and healthy. This approach, however can lead to a measurable loss in rover productivity. To regain some of this productivity, the Mars 2020 mission is prototyping the use of onboard scheduling software. The primary objective of this software is to identify and utilize opportunities that arise when actual rover performance is more efficient than the original, conservative prediction.
Benowitz, Ed↗
Modeling Spacecraft Safe Mode Events
Spacecraft enter a ‘safe mode’ to protect the vehicle when a potentially harmful anomaly occurs. This minimally functioning state isolates faults, establishes contact with Earth, and orients the vehicle into a power positive attitude until operators intervene. Though ‘safings’ are inherently unpredictable, mission teams build in time margin during operations to determine root causes and restore functionality. Planning and managing this margin is both critical and enabling on mission architectures dependent on near-continuous operability – such as a low-thrust electric propulsion mission. To better quantify the occurrences and severity of safe mode anomalies, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has assembled a database of safings from past and active missions. Currently nearly 240 records are captured from 21 beyond-Earth missions, stemming from a collaboration between teams at JPL, Ames Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, and the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. This paper discusses the event database, explores a statistical approach in modeling the occurrences and severity of safing events, presents a simulation technique, and details recommendations and future work to benefit future concepts.
Nicholas, Austin↗
Validation of Fault-Tolerant Plans for Europa Clipper
The Europa Clipper mission will explore that icy moon in a series of brief flybys through the Jovian radiation belts. A single event upset in the spacecraft flight computer during these critical scientific periods could jeopardize the success of the mission. Rather than safing and awaiting operator intervention, the Clipper mission envisions limited onboard autonomy that can restore spacecraft state sufficiently to resume the encounter observation plan as rapidly as possible. The contingency plan is contained in an Activity Restart Timeline (ART) that is transmitted in parallel with the nominal plan, which must be co-validated jointly against all spacecraft state and resource constraints amid unpredictable fault timing. A prototype validation tool was built that leverages declarative spacecraft models and automated search techniques to find such potential inconsistencies in the unified contingent mission plan. Early validation results within motivating scenarios are presented.
Ferguson, Eric↗
Evaluation of Opportunistic Contact Graph Routing in Random Mobility Environments
Routing in networks where nodes move randomly is particularly challenging due their potentially unpredictable, and rapidly changing topology. Several routing algorithms have been presented in the literature to address the needs of such networks, most of them implementing variants of controlled network flooding in the hope of successful data delivery. In this note, we compare the results of previous routing algorithms with Opportunistic Contact Graph Routing (OCGR), an enhanced version of Contact Graph Routing (CGR) that is suitable for networks where contacts cannot always be scheduled ahead of time. To perform the benchmark, we simulate a network of nodes moving in a certain space according to the Random Waypoint Mobility Model, and then take measurements of bundle delivery probabilty and overhead ratio as metrics of performance and cost respectively. Through this exercise, we demonstrate that the performance of OCGR is highly dependent on the type of network under consideration (e.g. very sparse vs. densely connected) and the assumed mobility model.
Burleigh, Scott↗
Probabilistic Blast Damage Modeling Uncertainties and Sensitivities
Blast overpressure is the predominant source of ground damage posed by potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. Estimates of the extent, severity, and likelihoods of potential blast damage regions will be one of the key metrics needed to mount civil defense or disaster response plans in the face of an impending impact. However, there are many inherent sources of uncertainty in evaluating the damage, both in characterizing the properties of the incoming object and in the approaches used to model the entry/impact and resulting damage, which make it difficult to produce a single ‘accurate’ or ‘best guess’ prediction of ground damage. The current 2021 PDC hypothetical impact scenario poses a particular challenge due to its short warning time. The need for rapid disaster response to prepare for an immanent impact, combined with lack of observational opportunities to refine basic knowledge about the object’s basic size and properties, make understanding the range and relative likelihood of consequences particularly critical. The potential damage caused by these blasts can be evaluated using a range of modeling and simulation approaches and levels of fidelity. Fast-running engineering-level models can be used to run large numbers of probabilistically sampled cases covering wide variations of uncertain properties or parameters. High-fidelity simulations, on the other hand, can capture more detailed/accurate blast physics, but can only be performed for a small selection of specific cases, requiring many assumptions to be made about the initial object and its unpredictable entry/breakup characteristics. In order to provide a more complete picture of the potential threat for effective disaster response, both types of analysis need to be employed together. In this approach, high-fidelity simulations are used to refine and anchor engineering models, and the probabilistic engineering models are used to evaluate broad parameters spaces and guide selection of the most pertinent simulation cases for a given scenario. This presentation expands upon the probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessments being performed as part of the 2021 PDC hypothetical impact exercise, focusing on key aspects of blast damage modeling uncertainties and sensitivities. We review the current modeling and simulation approaches employed in the current assessment, compare the relative levels of uncertainty stemming from each main element of the problem (i.e., knowledge of the asteroid properties, modeling of the atmospheric entry/breakup and airburst, and estimates of the ground damage from the resulting blasts waves), and highlight any notable trends and sensitivities for the current scenario case.
SMD↗
Interactions Between Two Existential Threats: COVID-19 and Climate Change
The COVID-19 pandemic and climate change are complex existential threats, unpredictable in many ways and unprecedented in modern times. There are parallels between the scale and scope of their impacts and responses. Understanding shared drivers, coupled vulnerabilities, and criteria for effective responses will help societies worldwide prepare for the simultaneous threats of climate change and future pandemics. We summarize some shared characteristics of COVID-19 and climate change impacts and interventions and discuss key policy implications and recommendations.
Climate change adaptation↗
Analyzing Optical Energy Behavior in Tropical Cyclones During Rapid Intensitication
Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) in tropical cyclones is an unpredictable task taken on by forecasters every year. Hurricane Laura made its way through the Gulf of Mexico in August 2020, undergoing RI on August 26, 2020 and strengthening from a category 1 hurricane to a category 4 hurricane in less than 18 hours. The goal of this project was to use data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the GOES-16 satellite to track lightning over the Western Hemisphere and investigate optical energy during this period of RI. Data was taken from the entire hurricane using a fixed area that captured Laura from 0000-2359 UTC on August 26 and using Python, the sum of the optical energy, average flash extent density (FED), and average flash area were investigated using time series plots to determine if there were any patterns before, during, and after RI. Variations at the beginning and end of RI point to a change in lightning behavior. Along with time series plots, investigating the distribution of values during RI may be a useful in determining if these parameters have any discernable pattern. Applying this methodology to a larger sample of tropical cyclones can provide a better understanding as to how these parameters vary during RI periods.
Kiahna Mollette↗
Latent Cure Epoxy Resins for Reliable Joints in Secondary-Bonded Composite Structures
In high-performance polymer matrix composite assemblies, adhesive bonding is generally superior to mechanical fastening in structural performance and manufacturing efficiency. However, adhesive bonds are susceptible to minute levels of contamination accumulated during assembly that can lead to unpredictable, weak bonds. Current methods of measuring bond strength are all destructive mechanical tests. To overcome these challenges, redundant load paths (e.g., mechanical fasteners) are often implemented in secondary-bonded, primary-structures, which can greatly reduce structural performance. This study investigated reformulated aerospace epoxy matrix resins with stoichiometric offset to inhibit cure of the matrix resin prior to assembly. Inhibited resins can reflow and mix across the joint interface, which eliminates the material discontinuity and forms a homogenous joint with reliable fracture properties. The goal of this study was to develop and demonstrate secondary composite assemblies that are mechanically and microscopically indistinguishable from a co-cured composite joint. This article describes the development of latent epoxy resins, the fabrication of test articles, and the mechanical properties measured from experimental joints compared with conventional, co-cured laminates. Methods of in-line quality control using and infrared spectroscopy and post-assembly forensics are also described. The final mode-II fracture toughness measured from precracked AERoBOND specimens was similar to that measured from co-cured laminates indicating that later cure epoxy materials could be a suitable replacement for secondary bonding.
Polymer-matrix composites (PMCs)↗
Using Flexible Execution, Replanning, and Model Parameter Updates to Address Environmental Uncertainty for a Planetary Lander
Planning in an unknown environment presents a number of challenges: incorrect world models, unpredictable variation in execution, and fixed depletable resources. Productivity in the face of these challenges requires an integrated approach to planning and execution that is capable of accomplishing goals, reacting to variation, and maximizing overall utility. We examine this problem in the context of a Europa Lander concept mission. We model the problem as a hierarchical task network, framing it as a utility maximization problem with a depletable energy resource. Then, we propose a planning and execution framework that responds to feedback using three techniques: flexible execution, periodic replanning, and online parameter estimation and re-goaling. We demonstrate the efficacy of each of these techniques through simulation of a Europa Lander mission, showing higher utility achievement compared to simpler approaches, when presented with variation in energy consumption. We demonstrate that an approach to scheduling and execution that is grounded in decision theory and integrated planning and execution will be an enabling technology for future tightly-constrained planetary surface missions.
Chien, Steve↗
Using Flexible Execution, Replanning, and Model Parameter Updates to Address Environmental Uncertainty for a Planetary Lander
When planning in unknown environments, a planner must ensure robustness to unknown phenomena and manage unpredictable variation in execution. Productivity in the face of these challenges requires an integrated approach to planning and execution that is capable of reacting to variation while still maximizing overall utility. We examine this problem in the context of the Europa Lander mission concept. We propose a planning and execution framework that responds to feedback using three techniques: (1) flexible execution, (2) periodic replanning, and (3) online model parameter and utility updates. The efficacy of each of these techniques is examined through simulation of the Europa Lander concept, showing higher utility achievement compared to baseline approaches.
Chien, Steve A.↗
Reducing Risk of InSight Surface Operations Through High-Fidelity Command Sequence Modeling
Simulating spacecraft behavior is crucial for the success of deep space missions, and failure to do so may result in damages to or the loss of the spacecraft. Many previous deep space missions have made use of ground-simulation of sequenced commanding, at speeds far greater than real time, to predict spacecraft state over time through the execution of onboard sequences. This type of modeling can be done at any fidelity, and most missions have opted to decrease fidelity to reduce cost and complexity. However, NASA’s Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport (InSight) mission expanded the scope of ground modeling considerably, which has led to numerous benefits over past implementations. This paper will discuss the process and products that InSight created, as well as the lessons learned from successfully operating the spacecraft on Mars. InSight is the first JPL mission to expand the scope of ground modeling to include the uplink of files from Earth to the spacecraft, rather than making the simplification that any command sequences already exist onboard the spacecraft. The advantages of modeling the uplink of files are numerous. First, it allows for accurate modeling of the onboard filesystem of the spacecraft at all points in time, meaning that all file loads and deletions throughout the mission are modeled at the exact moment they are predicted to actually happen. Second, operators can be more certain that dependencies between sequences are not broken due to the dynamic nature of the filesystem as files are deleted, copied, and uplinked. Lastly, spacecraft filesystem tracking allows for management of sequences prior to uplink, limiting the uplink to only new sequences. The onboard filesystem model became crucial to mission success, emphasizing the importance of investing in accurate models before the need for them arises. During daily tactical operations of a spacecraft on Mars, a model is only useful if the results can be interpreted quickly. In this fast-paced environment, it is essential that command products are modeled and reviewed, errors are found and diagnosed, and new command products are redelivered, remodeled, re-reviewed in a timely manner. It is impossible to review the entire model and therefore the results of the model must be condensed and presented in a fashion that is intuitive, easy-to-navigate, complete, and trustworthy. InSight developed a number of innovative sequence review products that are designed to provide operators with the information required to quickly assess the validity of command products and diagnose potential issues. Together, these products provide a complete, yet succinct picture of the command and sequence model to the operators and facilitate a quick assessment of all sequence command products. This paper will cover planning and sequencing innovations made during InSight surface operations, and will compare the tools, processes, and results to those on other missions. Additionally, the paper will cover the flexible, yet robust nature of the planning and sequencing system architecture and how that flexibility allowed for rapid development and response to the unpredictability of Mars.
Cloutier, Kyle↗
Waveguiding and Dispersion Properties of Interband Cascade Laser Frequency Combs
Mid-infrared semiconductor lasers have emerged as indispensable compact coherent sources for military and commercial applications. While much of the historical emphasis has been on maximizing the output power and/or spectral purity, a recent new focus has been on engineering these lasers to operate as optical frequency combs (OFCs) for broadband real-time spectroscopy. In particular, the combination of low-drive-power and broad gain bandwidth has made interband cascade laser (ICL) OFCs an attractive complement to quantum cascade laser OFCs operating at longer wavelengths. Moreover, ICL combs can potentially be incorporated into fully-integrated dual-comb spectrometers that employ fast, room-temperature IC photodetectors processed on the same chip.However, the high refractive index of the ICL’s GaSb substrate poses some challenges to the optical waveguiding. Because the modal index is considerably lower than that of the substrate, the optical field can penetrate the bottom cladding layer and leak into the GaSb, inducing wavelength-dependent interference that modifies the gain and group velocity dispersion (GVD) profiles. Even when the effect on lasing threshold is small, the comb properties can be adversely affected. Using the sub-threshold Fourier transform technique, we studied ICL combs with various ridge widths, substrate thicknesses, and center wavelengths. This allowed us to evaluate the effects of modal leakage on the GVD. We find that the resonant nature of the substrate modes induces oscillations, which affect both the spectral bandwidth and the phase-locking properties above threshold. Strategies to mitigate the GVD’s undesired and unpredictable spectral variation will be presented.
Meyer, J. R↗
A sampling-based optimization approach to handling environmental uncertainty for a planetary lander
Planning for unknown environments presents a number of technical challenges. The planner must ensure robustness to unknown phenomena and manage unpredictable variation in execution, all while operating in a capacity that maximizes its objective. Productivity in the face of these challenges re-quires an integrated approach to planning and execution that is capable of accomplishing goals, reacting to variation, and maximizing overall utility. We examine this problem in the context of a Europa Lander concept mission. We model the problem as a hierarchical task network, framing it as a utility maximization problem constrained on a depletable energy resource. We propose an uncertainty–sensitive deterministic planning framework that utilizes periodic replanning to better handle model uncertainty and variable execution. We demonstrate the efficacy of our framework through simulations of a Europa Lander concept mission in which our algorithm out-performs several baseline approaches in both utility maximization and robustness
Zilberstein, Shlomo↗
Detecting the Greatest Changes in Global Satellite-Based Precipitation Observations
In recent years, the analysis of abrupt and non-abrupt changes in precipitation has received much attention due to the importance of climate change-related issues (e.g., extreme climate events). In this study, we used a novel segmentation algorithm, DBEST (Detecting Breakpoints and Estimating Segments in Trend), to analyze the greatest changes in precipitation using a monthly pixel-based satellite precipitation dataset (TRMM 3B43) at three different scales: (i) global, (ii) continental, and (iii) climate zone, during the 1998–2019 period. We found significant breakpoints, 14.1%, both in the form of abrupt and non-abrupt changes, in the global scale precipitation at the 0.05 significance level. Most of the abrupt changes were observed near the Equator in the Pacific Ocean and Asian continent, relative to the rest of the globe. Most detected breakpoints occurred during the 1998–1999 and 2009–2011 periods on the global scale. The average precipitation change for the detected breakpoint was ±100 mm, with some regions reaching ±3000 mm. For instance, most portions of northern Africa and Asia experienced major changes of approximately +100 mm. In contrast, most of the South Pacific and South Atlantic Ocean experienced changes of −100 mm during the studied period. Our findings indicated that the larger areas of Africa (23.9%), Asia (22.9%), and Australia (15.4%) experienced significant precipitation breakpoints compared to North America (11.6%), South America (9.3%), Europe (8.3%), and Oceania (9.6%). Furthermore, we found that the majority of detected significant breakpoints occurred in the arid (31.6%) and polar (24.1%) climate zones, while the least significant breakpoints were found for snow-covered (11.5%), equatorial (7.5%), and warm temperate (7.7%) climate zones. Positive breakpoints’ temporal coverage in the arid (54.0%) and equatorial (51.9%) climates were more than those in other climates zones. Here, the findings indicated that large areas of Africa and Asia experienced significant changes in precipitation (−250 to +250 mm). Compared to the average state (trend during a specific period), the greatest changes in precipitation were more abrupt and unpredictable, which might impose a severe threat to the ecology, environment, and natural resources.
Breakpoint↗
Candidate Performance Metrics for Generalized Control for Autonomous Flight
Contingency management is the most challenging aspect of autonomous flight. In order to accommodate the most flexible response to unpredicted events and unexpected circumstances, i.e. contingencies, a new integrated path planning, trajectory following, flight control architecture is required that would maximize the safe operating envelope. For this highly integrated generalized control architecture, a new set of performance metrics that extends beyond traditional stability and performance is required. This paper proposes a candidate set of new performance metrics relevant to urban air mobility mission scenarios.
Control metrics↗
Candidate Performance Metrics for Generalized Control for Autonomous Flight
Contingency management is the most challenging aspect of autonomous flight. In order to accommodate the most flexible response to unpredicted events and unexpected circumstances, i.e. contingencies, a new integrated path planning, trajectory following, flight control architecture is required that would maximize the safe operating envelope. For this highly integrated generalized control architecture, a new set of performance metrics that extends beyond traditional stability and performance is required. This paper proposes a candidate set of new performance metrics relevant to urban air mobility mission scenarios.
Control metrics↗
Short-Haul Fatigue: Pilot Perspectives & Current Research
Introduction: There are few studies investigating the impact of fatigue in short-haul flight operations conducted under United States (U.S.) Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) Part 117 flight and duty limitations and rest requirements. In order to understand the fatigue factors unique to short-haul operations, we conducted a series of focus groups across four major commercial passenger airlines in the US. The outcomes of this study were intended to inform the scope of a larger study of fatigue in short-haul operations. Methods: Ninety short-haul pilots were recruited through emails distributed by airline safety teams and labor representatives. Fourteen focus groups were conducted via an online conferencing platform in which participants were asked to identify, specific to short-haul: a) schedules and operations that lead to elevated fatigue; b) schedules and operations that are not fatiguing, and c) important fatigue factors to study. Data were collected anonymously and coded using conventional qualitative content analysis, with axial coding and summative analysis used to identify main themes and over-arching categories. Results: Participants had an average of 12,348 (6,483) lifetime flying hours with 71 (14.5) hours of monthly flying. Forty-six percent of participants were captains. The six fatigue factor categories identified were: circadian disruption (e.g., circadian switches, redeyes), high workload (e.g., hassle factors, number of flights per duty), inadequate rest opportunity (e.g., minimum rest layovers, quality of rest facilities), schedule changes (e.g., unpredictability), regulation and policy issues (e.g., scheduling up to FAR 117 limits), and long sits (e.g., long wait times between flights). Discussion: A field study informed by these results and designed to investigate the prevalence and impact of these factors in US short-haul operations is currently underway.
pilots↗