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NASA NTRS1993

Temperature distribution in side- and end-pumped laser crystal rods - Temporal and spatial variations

Knowledge of the temperature distribution of laser rods end pumped by laser diodes or other laser systems is relevant when thermal stress and crystal damage are expected. The temperature of a multipulsed or continuously pumped laser rod is given as a double-series expression and as a function of time. The mathematical model considers all surface cooling rates, the spatial and temporal variations of the pump beam, and the specific heat and thermal conductivity of the rod material. This eigenfunction expansion representation was employed to predict the spatial and time-dependent quasi-steady-state temperature in Ti:sapphire, Nd:YAG, and Cr:LiSAF laser rods of specific dimensions.

Farrukh, Usamah O.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Failure Modes in Capacitors When Tested Under a Time-Varying Stress

Power-on failure has been the prevalent failure mechanism for solid tantalum capacitors in decoupling applications. A surge step stress test (SSST) has been previously applied to identify the critical stress level of a capacitor batch to give some predictability to the power-on failure mechanism [1]. But SSST can also be viewed as an electrically destructive test under a time-varying stress (voltage). It consists of rapidly charging the capacitor with incremental voltage increases, through a low resistance in series, until the capacitor under test is electrically shorted. When the reliability of capacitors is evaluated, a highly accelerated life test (HALT) is usually adopted since it is a time-efficient method of determining the failure mechanism; however, a destructive test under a time-varying stress such as SSST is even more time efficient. It usually takes days or weeks to complete a HALT test, but it only takes minutes for a time-varying stress test to produce failures. The advantage of incorporating a specific time-varying stress profile into a statistical model is significant in providing an alternative life test method for quickly revealing the failure mechanism in capacitors. In this paper, a time-varying stress that mimics a typical SSST has been incorporated into the Weibull model to characterize the failure mechanism in different types of capacitors. The SSST circuit and transient conditions for correctly surge testing capacitors are discussed. Finally, the SSST was applied for testing Ta capacitors, polymer aluminum capacitors (PA capacitors), and multi-layer ceramic (MLC) capacitors with both precious metal electrodes (PME) and base metal electrodes (BME). The test results are found to be directly associated with the dielectric layer breakdown in Ta and PA capacitors and are independent of the capacitor values, the way the capacitors were built, and the capacitors manufacturers. The test results also show that MLC capacitors exhibit surge breakdown voltages much higher than the rated voltage and that the breakdown field is inversely proportional to the dielectric layer thickness. The SSST data can also be used to comparatively evaluate the voltage robustness of capacitors for decoupling applications.

Liu, David (Donhang)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving Robustness of Spectrogram Classifiers with Neural Stochastic Differential Equations

Signal analysis and classification is fraught with high levels of noise and perturbation. Computer-vision-based deep learning models applied to spectrograms have proven useful in the field of signal classification and detection; however, these methods aren't designed to handle the low signal-to-noise ratios inherent within non-vision signal processing tasks. While they are powerful, they are currently not the method of choice in the inherently noisy and dynamic critical infrastructure domain, such as smart-grid sensing, anomaly detection, and non-intrusive load monitoring. Currently, these models can be brittle, which makes them susceptible to noisy input. This also means they have sub-optimal stability of explanation outputs. Experts and technicians using these models to make decisions in real world scenarios need assurance that a model is performing as it is supposed to. The classification or prediction outputs it generates should be sound and grounded, not likely to change in the presence of shifting noise landscapes. In this work, we explore the idea of Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (NSDE's) to improve the robustness of models trained to classify time series data and the effect of NSDE's on the explainability of outputs. We then test the effectiveness of these approaches by applying them to a non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) dataset that consists of simulated harmonic signals injected into a real building.

Brogan, Joel↗

DOE OSTI2022

Neptunium (V) Solubility in the Presence and Absence of WIPP Relevant Ligands

CRA (Compliance Recertification Application)-2024 will update the oxidation state specific model used to calculate actinide solubility in the WIPP (Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). The pentavalent Np(V) ion is the most stable ion in solution within the An(V) series. This valence stability of Np(V) in aqueous solution makes Np a useful representative element for studying the aqueous complex chemistry of all An(V), but in the predicted WIPP scenario, this is the only TRU component that increases in the inventory with time as it is the main daughter product of 241 Am decay (alpha, n) so its relative importance increases throughout the 10,000-year performance period of the WIPP, it is only used to represent itself. This work is focused on confirming organic, borate and carbonate effects on solubility of Np(V) in WIPP simulated brines and 5 M NaCl and reassessing the predicted model speciation to strengthen the overall WIPP An(V) model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2017

Effects of CubeSat Deployments in Low-Earth Orbit

Long-term models, such as NASA's LEGEND (LEO-to- GEO Environment Debris) model, are used to make predictions about how space activities will affect the manner in which the debris environment evolves over time. Part of this process predicts how spacecraft and rocket bodies will be launched and remain in the future environment. This has usually been accomplished by repeating past launch history to simulate future launches. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has conducted a series of LEGEND computations to investigate the long-term effects of adding CubeSats to the environment. These results are compared to a baseline "business-as-usual" scenario where launches are assumed to continue as in the past without major CubeSat deployments. Using these results, we make observations about the continued use of the 25-year rule and the importance of the universal application of postmission disposal.

Matney, Mark↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reduced-Order Aerodynamic Modeling Based on CFD Frequency Responses from Multisine Inputs

A system identification analysis was performed to determine a reduced-order model (ROM) of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver in support of linear aeroservoelastic model development and feedback control design. The approach was applied to the FUN3D code for the half-span wind tunnel test article used in the NASA-Boeing collaboration called the Integrated Adaptive Wing Technology Maturation (IAWTM) project. In a transonic flow condition, multiple inputs (11 structural mode displacements and 3 control surface deflections) were simultaneously excited with orthogonal phase-optimized multisines while multiple outputs (the corresponding 14 generalized aerodynamic forces) were recorded. From these recorded times series, the matrix of frequency responses was computed and subsequently fit using rational function approximations (RFAs). It was found that the entire (14 x 14) matrix of frequency responses could be determined from a single CFD run and that results generally followed trends predicted using other methods. Differences were attributed to the modeling fidelity and nonlinearities from structural mode and control surface interactions at higher reduced frequencies. More accurate fits of the RFAs to the frequency response data were obtained by making two CFD runs, one with only structural mode excitations and one with only control surface excitations, which reduced the degree of nonlinearity in the modeling data.

Aeroservoelasticity↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of cooling setpoint setback savings in commercial buildings using electricity and exterior temperature time series data

Commercial buildings account for a significant amount of total energy produced in the US, and the Heating Ventilation and Cooling (HVAC) systems are one of the most significant components of their overall consumption. In this study, we proposed a new data-driven approach to evaluate HVAC cooling systems in commercial buildings and identify savings opportunities. The focus is an investigation of the impact of thermostat setpoint setback but using only whole building, electricity data taken at 15-min intervals for the analysis. We conducted a comparative study of setpoint setback characteristics on 432 commercial buildings with 5 building usage types across the United States. To accomplish this, both piecewise and Random Forest regression algorithms were employed using electricity and exterior temperature datasets to identify operational characteristics and the effective setpoints in the building to determine the corresponding savings opportunities. Both occupied and unoccupied time periods were studied across cooling degree days (CDD), when air conditioning is typically operational. Here the results show that in commercial buildings, on average, cooling systems account for 9.5% of total consumption. When a one degree setback during the cooling season is applied, an average of approximately 1.1% of annual consumption is achieved; retail and office buildings demonstrate the highest potential for savings. Additionally, we identified that the number of cooling degree days and base to peak ratio (BPR) are the most important variables for predicting the magnitude of the consumption of cooling systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical-embedding autoencoder with a predictor as efficient architecture for learning time-evolution in multi-scale turbulent flows

We introduce a scale-aware, data-driven deep learning modeling framework for accurately predicting the time evolution of multi-scale turbulent plasma and liquid flows. The approach is motivated by the idea of scale separation. Structures of vastly different length scales emerge in these systems, and interactions between these structures occur only locally. To exploit this structure, the flow state is transformed by a hierarchical, fully convolutional autoencoder, not into a single embedding layer as in conventional convolutional surrogate models, but into a series of embedding layers. A stepwise training strategy ensures that fine-scale features are encoded on a high-resolution grid, while larger structures are represented on progressively coarser layers. The time evolution predictor advances all embedding layers in sync, capturing local interactions between features at the same scale as well as between all scales. This approach enables efficient modeling of multi-scale systems since negligible interactions between distant, small-scale structures do not need to be directly modeled. Our hierarchical-embedding autoencoder with a predictor framework is evaluated on canonical examples of multi-scale turbulence: two-dimensional Kolmogorov flow and Hasegawa–Wakatani plasma turbulence. In both cases, the proposed framework significantly improves predictive accuracy relative to conventional convolutional network architectures. A significant improvement in prediction accuracy was observed for crucial statistical characteristics of the Hasegawa–Wakatani plasma as well as for individual trajectories of the Kolmogorov flow turbulence. Importantly, the model's rollout for the Hasegawa–Wakatani problem demonstrates a four-order-of-magnitude speedup compared to traditional numerical solvers.

Khrabry, Alexander I. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United↗

NASA NTRS1996

Studies of Westward Electrojets and Field-Aligned Currents in the Magnetotail During Substorms: Implications for Magnetic Field Models

This section outlines those tasks undertaken in the final year that contribute integrally to the overarching project goals. Fast, during the final year, it is important to note that the project benefited greatly with the addition of a Boston University graduate student, Ms. Karen Hirsch. Jointly, we made substantial progress on the development of and improvements to magnetotail magnetic field and plasma models. The ultimate aim of this specific task was to assess critically the utility of such models for mapping low-altitude phenomena into the magnetotail (and vice-versa). The bulk of this effort centered around the finite-width- magnetotail convection model developed by and described by Spence and Kivelson (J. Geophys. Res., 98, 15,487, 1993). This analytic, theoretical model specifies the bulk plasma characteristics of the magnetotail plasma sheet (number density, temperature, pressure) across the full width of the tail from the inner edge of the plasma sheet to lunar distances. Model outputs are specified by boundary conditions of the source particle populations as well as the magnetic and electric field configuration. During the reporting period, we modified this code such that it can be interfaced with the auroral particle precipitation model developed by Dr. Terry Onsager. Together, our models provide a simple analytic specification of the equatorial distribution of fields and plasma along with their low-altitude consequences. Specifically, we have built a simple, yet powerful tool which allows us to indirectly 'map' auroral precipitation signatures (VDIS, inverted-V's, etc.) measured by polar orbiting spacecraft in the ionosphere, to the magnetospheric equatorial plane. The combined models allow us to associate latitudinal gradients measured in the ion energy fluxes at low-altitudes with the large-scale pressure gradients in the equatorial plane. Given this global, quasi-static association, we can then make fairly strong statements regarding the location of discrete features in the context of the global picture. We reported on our initial study at national and international meetings and published the results of our predictions of the low-altitude signatures of the plasma sheet. In addition, the PI was invited to contribute a publication to the so-called 'Great Debate in Space Physics' series that is a feature of EOS. The topic was on the nature of magnetospheric substorms. Specific questions of the when and where a substorm occurs and the connection between the auroral and magnetospheric components were discussed in that paper. This paper therefore was derived exclusively from the research supported by this grant. Attachment: Empirical modeling of the quite time nightside magnetosphere.' 'CRRES observations of particle flux dropout event.' The what, where, when, and why of magnetospheric substorm triggers'. and 'Low altitude signature of the plasma sheet: model prediction of local time dependence'.

Spence, Harlan E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

On-board ephemeris representation for Topex/Poseidon

The Topex/Poseidon satellite requires real-time on-board knowledge of the satellite and TDRS ephemeris for attitude determination and control and High-Gain Antenna (HGA) pointing. The ephemeris representation concept for the MMS (Multimission Modular Spacecraft) satellites has shown that compressing the predicted ephemeris in a Fourier Power Series (FPS) before uplinking in conjunction with the On-Board Computer (OBC) ephemeris reconstruction algorithms is an efficient technique for ephemeris representation. As an MMS-based satellite, Topex/Poseidon has inherited the Landsat ephemeris representation concept including a daily FPS upload. This paper presents the Topex/Poseidon concept, analysis, and results including the conclusion that the ephemeris representation duration could be extended to 10 days or more and convenient weekly uploading is adopted without an increase in OBC memory requirements.

Salama, Ahmed H.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Identifying Stratospheric Air Intrusions and Associated Hurricane-Force Wind Events over the North Pacific Ocean

Motivation: Ocean data is sparse: reliance on satellite imagery for marine forecasting; Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) –“mariner’s weather lifeline”. Responsible for: Pacific, Atlantic, Pacific Alaska surface analyses –24, 48, 96 hrs.; Wind & wave analyses –24, 48, 96 hrs.; Issue warnings, make decisions, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite –R Series (now GOES-16), Compared to the old GOES: 3 times spectral resolution, 4 times spatial resolution, 5 times faster coverage; Comparable to Japanese Meteorological Agency’s Himawari-8, used a lot throughout this research. Research Question: How can integrating satellite data imagery and derived products help forecasters improve prognosis of rapid cyclogenesis and hurricane-force wind events? Phase I –Identifying stratospheric air intrusions: Water Vapor –6.2, 6.9, 7.3 micron channels; Airmass RGB Product; AIRS, IASI, NUCAPS total column ozone and ozone anomaly; ASCAT (A/B) and AMSR-2 wind data.

Ozone↗

NASA NTRS2019

Aeroelastic Indicial Response Reduced-Order Modeling for Flexible Flight Vehicles

A reduced-order modeling method capable of providing computationally efficient predictions of the nonlinear, unsteady aerodynamics encountered by flexible flight vehicles under- going forced oscillations is presented. Models are developed using indicial response theory, which characterizes a vehicle’s dynamics through identification of time-accurate aerodynamic responses due to step changes in the vehicle-state parameters, e.g., angle-of-attack, pitch rate. A coupled computational fluid dynamics aeroelastic analysis is proposed for identifying step (indicial) responses of flexible vehicles. In this approach, aeroelastic indicial responses are simulated via prescribed rigid body motions, while fluid-structure interactions are captured at the subiterative level through coupling to a linear modal structural solver. A nonlinear extension of indicial response theory is applied through time-dependent linear interpolation of a database of locally linear aeroelastic step responses. Reduced-order models are then created using the mathematical principle of convolution applied to the interpolated aeroelastic indicial responses to predict the time-dependent aerodynamic response of a flexible vehicle to any arbitrary prescribed flight maneuver. The NASA FUN3D computational fluid dynamics solver is utilized for simulating full-order trajectories and indicial response functions. Aerodynamic predictions were generated for the X-56A aircraft undergoing a series of harmonic forced oscillations. The s are shown to provide a practical option for evaluating the unsteady aerodynamics of flexible vehicles using high-fidelity simulations.

Hiller, Brett↗

NASA NTRS2000

Satellite-Derived Dynamics of Southern Ocean Sea Ice

Antarctic ERS-2, RADARSAT Synthetic Aperture Radar and ERS-1/2 Scatterometer images were analyzed with SMMI radiometer image time-series data to investigate seasonal variability in satellite-tracked sea-ice dynamics in the Southern Ocean during 1992. Supporting field data were acquired during 'in-situ' experiments including the winter 1992 Ice Station Weddell and Winter Weddell Gyre studies. A variety of surface measurements were made during these experiments including Argos-buoy deployment and GPS drift measurements. These are used in conjunction with International Program for Antarctic Buoys drift trajectories for ice-motion tracking validation. Comparisons between gridded Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) ice-motion vectors and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (ECMWF/NCEP) analyses indicate that large-scale drift is forced predominantly by the long-term mean, large-scale synoptic pressure field. Only sub-daily SAR sea-ice tracking can capture high-frequency fluctuations, driven by polar lows or tidal forcing. In these cases, sea-ice drift can respond rapidly to changes in forcing on semi-diurnal time scales depending on the location with respect to the coastline. Seasonality of ice drift, particularly in the Weddell and Ross Seas, is linked to ice extent and compactness, and internal ice stresses transmitted through the pack ice from the coast. Three-monthly seasonal climatologies are presented of austral winter of ice drift in the Southern Ocean. The large Weddell and Ross Sea gyres are clearly resolved along with key seasonal and spatial attributes of their cyclonic circulation. Regional time series of ice dynamics parameters are used to illustrate correlations with meteorological forcing. Persistent divergence such as that occurring in the Ronne-Filchner polynya system results in large fractions of new ice. Similarly, convergence zones produce large fractions of deformed ice and characterize the dynamics of regions where perennial ice is observed. High shear strains also help delineate the axis of the Antarctic divergence in many places in the ice cover. In these regions, the separation between the coastal 'east wind drift'and ACC-dominated drift regimes is characterized by zonally extended regions of intense shear.

Drinkwater, Mark R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Voltage Inference Framework for Real-Time Observability in Active Distribution Grids

Active distribution grids are gaining traction to meet the growing environmental, socio-economic, and sustainability targets. Various advanced smart grid technologies facilitate the integration of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) by supporting the bi-directional power flow. The limited observability of distribution grids, primarily related to their location at the very edge of power system infrastructure, brings challenges to optimal grid management. Moreover, only a limited number of measurements at regular intervals are usually available. This paper presents a novel inference framework, referred to as “Voltage Inference”, to overcome the observability issues. The proposed framework employs a prediction step based on the Multivariate Taylor series approximation, followed by a corrector step that minimizes the estimation error to infer the otherwise unknown voltages from the available measurements. Furthermore, numerical results on the IEEE 13-bus test feeder validate the accuracy and computational performance of the proposed framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

A vortex sheet based analytical model of the curled wake behind yawed wind turbines

Motivated by the need for compact descriptions of the evolution of non-classical wakes behind yawed wind turbines, we develop an analytical model to predict the shape of curled wakes. Interest in such modelling arises due to the potential of wake steering as a strategy for mitigating power reduction and unsteady loading of downstream turbines in wind farms. We first estimate the distribution of the shed vorticity at the wake edge due to both yaw offset and rotating blades. By considering the wake edge as an ideally thin vortex sheet, we describe its evolution in time moving with the flow. Vortex sheet equations are solved using a power series expansion method, and an approximate solution for the wake shape is obtained. The vortex sheet time evolution is then mapped into a spatial evolution by using a convection velocity. Apart from the wake shape, the lateral deflection of the wake including ground effects is modelled. Our results show that there exists a universal solution for the shape of curled wakes if suitable dimensionless variables are employed. For the case of turbulent boundary layer inflow, the decay of vortex sheet circulation due to turbulent diffusion is included. Finally, we modify the Gaussian wake model by incorporating the predicted shape and deflection of the curled wake, so that we can calculate the wake profiles behind yawed turbines. Model predictions are validated against large-eddy simulations and laboratory experiments for turbines with various operating conditions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Detachment scalings derived from 1D scrape-off-layer simulations

Fusion power plants will require detachment to mitigate sputtering and keep divertor heat fluxes at tolerable levels. Controlling detachment on these devices may require the use of real-time scrape-off-layer modeling to complement the limited set of available diagnostics. In this work, we use the configurable Hermes-3 edge modeling framework to perform time-dependent, fixed-fraction-impurity 1D detachment simulations. Although currently far from real-time, these simulations are used to investigate time-dependent effects and the minimum physics set required for control-relevant modeling. We show that these simulations reproduce the expected rollover of the target ion flux — a typical characteristic of detachment onset. We also perform scans of the input heat flux and impurity concentration and show that the steady-state results closely match the scalings predicted by the 0D time-independent Lengyel–Goedheer model. This allows us to indirectly compare to SOLPS simulations, which find a similar scaling but a lower value for the impurity concentration required for detachment for given upstream conditions. We use this result to suggest a series of improvements for the Hermes simulations, and finally show simulations demonstrating the impact of time-dependence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nominal and adversarial synthetic PMU data for standard IEEE test systems

GridSTAGE (Spatio-Temporal Adversarial scenario GEneration) is a framework for the simulation of adversarial scenarios and the generation of multivariate spatio-temporal data in cyber-physical systems. GridSTAGE is developed based on Matlab and leverages Power System Toolbox (PST) where the evolution of the power network is governed by nonlinear differential equations. Using GridSTAGE, one can create several event scenarios that correspond to several operating states of the power network by enabling or disabling any of the following: faults, AGC control, PSS control, exciter control, load changes, generation changes, and different types of cyber-attacks. Standard IEEE bus system data is used to define the power system environment. GridSTAGE emulates the data from PMU and SCADA sensors. The rate of frequency and location of the sensors can be adjusted as well. Detailed instructions on generating data scenarios with different system topologies, attack characteristics, load characteristics, sensor configuration, control parameters are available in the Github repository - https://github.com/pnnl/GridSTAGE. There is no existing adversarial data-generation framework that can incorporate several attack characteristics and yield adversarial PMU data. The GridSTAGE framework currently supports simulation of False Data Injection attacks (such as a ramp, step, random, trapezoidal, multiplicative, replay, freezing) and Denial of Service attacks (such as time-delay, packet-loss) on PMU data. Furthermore, it supports generating spatio-temporal time-series data corresponding to several random load changes across the network or corresponding to several generation changes. A Koopman mode decomposition (KMD) based algorithm to detect and identify the false data attacks in real-time is proposed in https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9303022. Machine learning-based predictive models are developed to capture the dynamics of the underlying power system with a high level of accuracy under various operating conditions for IEEE 68 bus system. The corresponding machine learning models are available at https://github.com/pnnl/grid_prediction.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS1991

Sensor fusion techniques for predicting thunderstorm evolution using lightning and radar networks

A pattern recognition scheme that is used to generate initial seeds or 'first guess' fields for clustering the discrete lightning discharges into storm cells is presented. The clustering process is critically dependent on the prior accuracy of the lightning location estimates. The generation of subsequent storm life-cycle time series (for extrapolation forecasting) also relies on the cluster analysis procedure assigning the correct number of lightning discharges (objects) to the proper storms (groups). The advantages and limitations of different clustering strategies for storm identification and tracking are examined. Storm identification with lightning data alone is compared to storm identification with radar alone, and some synergies for sensor fusion are explored.

Goodman, Steven J.↗