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Holevo information and ensemble theory of gravity

Holevo information is an upper bound for the accessible classical information of an ensemble of quantum states. In this work, we use Holevo information to investigate the ensemble theory interpretation of quantum gravity. We study the Holevo information in random tensor network states, where the random parameters are the random tensors at each vertex. Based on the results in random tensor network models, we propose a conjecture on the holographic bulk formula of the Holevo information in the gravity case. As concrete examples of holographic systems, we compute the Holevo information in the ensemble of thermal states and thermo-field double states in the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev model. The results are consistent with our conjecture.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Electrical and Thermal Load Impacts of Three District Heating and Cooling Designs for an Existing Community in Washington, DC

District energy systems that provide building heating and cooling are a promising option to provide low-cost, energy efficient heating and cooling solutions for communities. As some buildings move to electrified heating designs, there may be significant increases in electric grid demand, particularly in the winter. District energy systems may be able to help reduce these high electrical demands on the electric grid, while also providing decreased overall energy consumption with an increased flexibility in electrical energy usage. To evaluate and compare district options for district-based heating and cooling, an existing neighborhood of Washington, DC consisting of 35 existing buildings was selected as a case study. This study models and compares a fourth generation (4G) district heating and cooling systems that provide hot and chilled water from a central plant directly to each prosumer and a fifth generation (5G) district heating and cooling systems that provide near-ambient water via geothermal boreholes to interface with an energy transfer station with a heat pump at each prosumer. These district systems are compared against a baseline of the non-connected buildings with their self-contained and current HVAC systems. The neighborhood was selected as a good candidate for a district system for its diversity of loads (mix of different commercial and property types) and the availability of building characteristics. URBANopt District Energy Systems (DES) was used to model the buildings and create initial Modelica models for the district systems. Finally, the DES models were tuned and simulated in Dymola, and the outputs were post-processed for verification and to calculate the electrical and thermal grid impact metrics. This is the first documentation of this workflow and its complete analysis. The three designed systems are compared via their grid metrics including: total energy consumption, electrical demand peak loads, daily peak-to-valley ratios, and system ramping. A detailed discussion is provided about how each system impacts and interacts with the electric grid.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Automated Control for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Start-Up using MOOSE-based Applications

This report presents a Griffin/Bison/RELAP-7 numerical model of a prototypical NTP system that features fuel assemblies arranged in rings, and which was designed to simulate rapid startup transients. The physics modeled include full-core neutronics, assembly-wise heat conduction, and conjugate heat transfer, with the balance of plant mainly imposed through boundary conditions. In addition, various forms of automated reactivity control were deployed by using the MOOSE to autonomously drive the model and simulate the reactor transitioning from assumed initial conditions to nominal power in a fraction of a minute. To generate the cross-sections of the neutronics model, and in an effort to simultaneously account for the tremendous axial temperature gradients in the reactor and to limit the number of state points required for cross-section generation, the average component temperatures and hydrogen densities in the cooling channels were correlated to the average fuel and moderator temperatures, and fixed axial profiles were derived for nominal conditions and then used during the transient. With this approximation, a tractable cross-section library tabulated with fuel/moderator temperatures and CD angles was generated using Serpent. The full-core SPH correction procedure and the CD decusping technology in Griffin, respectively, ensure preservation of the multiplication factor and reaction rates at state points, along with a reasonably accurate reactivity worth between tabulated CD angles, despite using a coarse mesh. Feedback from other physics was calculated by modeling one representative fuel assembly per ring, along with the corresponding fuel and moderator cooling channels. To limit power overshoots during startup, another layer of multiphysics coupling was added to the model in order to automatically control the drums. Two different technologies presented herein showed outstanding performance in this regard: (1) a novel hybrid PID controller based on both power and reactivity signals, and (2) a PGC that relies on kinetics parameters and reactivity coefficients to predict future behavior and adjust the desired signal accordingly. A challenging benchmark was devised, featuring a power demand curve that exponentially increases by a factor of 500 within 30 seconds, then levels out after that. Both control approaches create a simulated power curve that closely follows the power demand curve and limits power overshoots to 1% or less. While the former approach requires more tuning of the internal parameters, the latter requires additional knowledge of the reactivity feedback coefficients and rates of change of the corresponding variables, including fuel and moderator temperature, which could be difficult to dynamically measure for a real NTP system. Fortunately, some inaccuracy in these quantities will not drastically degrade the PGC performance. Subsequently, a more realistic startup sequence was considered, in which the mass flow rate and outlet pressures are ramped up to model bootstrap and thrust build-up phases prior to reaching steady-state conditions, demonstrating the ability of the hybrid PID and PGCs to handle such transients, with both types of controllers exhibiting very similar behavior. Nevertheless, a significant chamber temperature overshoot was observed, caused by the demanded power signal and assumed mass flow rate. This issue could be mitigated by deploying a reactor controller that follows the chamber temperature signal and actuates both the control valves and drums (rather than using a power signal based solely on the drums to control reactivity). Enhancement of the hydrogen fluid properties available in MOOSE, as well as a better understanding of prototypical initial conditions, are also needed to further enhance this startup model. Finally, a study was performed to model decay heat post-shutdown, and to prepare for extending this model to predict shutdown behavior and post-shutdown pulsed cooling requirements.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Cooperative Transmission Expansion Planning Experiment Data and Results

GO WEST is an open-source power grid modeling framework for U.S. Western Interconnection, which allows users to tailor the model depending on their research study and science questions. It covers 28 balancing authorities (BA) and 12 states in U.S. Western Interconnection. GO WEST allows users to select different number of nodes and come up with a simplified network by utilizing 10,000 nodal topology of U.S. Western Interconnection created by Texas A&M University. Users can try and select different number of nodes, mathematical formulations (linear programming vs. mixed-integer linear programming), transmission line limit scaling factors, and hurdle rate scaling factors. GO WEST offers a unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC/ED) module to simulate grid operations on an hourly scale. In this sense, users can calibrate and validate their model versions by comparing model outputs to historical datasets. TEP is an open-source transmission capacity expansion model, built on GO WEST framework. It utilizes linear programming to optimize transmission capacity addition investment on existing lines within GO WEST framework. In this sense, TEP model only increases the thermal capacity of existing transmission lines and does not add new lines to the system, which leaves the topology preserved. TEP minimizes the total cost of the system which comprises the operational cost of satisfying electricity demand (i.e., generation cost), cost of loss of load (i.e., unserved energy), cost of power flow, and cost of new transmission capacity additions (i.e., investment cost). In order to use TEP model, users need to create scenarios with GO WEST framework. In this analysis, outputs from several models are used to create future inputs to GO WEST and TEP models, including GCAM-USA, TELL, CERF and reV. This dataset includes experiment inputs and outputs from three different transmission expansion scenarios (cooperative, intermediate, and individual) for 2019 and 2059. For 2019, a base scenario to illustrate the default (i.e., historical) power grid operations is also included. This study utilizes rcp45hotter_ssp3 scenario from a previous version of GCAM-USA simulations. Sources of the shapefiles in supplementary data are HIFLD Open and U.S. Energy Atlas. Please see the README file for a detailed description of the main and supplementary data.

Capacity Expansion Model↗

Development, Monitoring, and Control of Fracture Thermal Energy Storage (FTES) in Crystalline Rock Formations (DEMO-FTES) (CRADA Final Report)

The DEMO-FTES project sought to demonstrate the thermal efficiency of fracture thermal energy storage (FTES) through numerical simulations, laboratory and meso-scale field tests. A detailed dimensional and scaling analysis was performed to identify key parameters and how they can be most effectively scaled to the laboratory and decameter scale. Numerical models were developed and used for three purposes: 1. Before field experiments, numerical modelling can be used to estimate fracture properties based on previous data from the EGS Collab experiment and then predict thermal hydrological behaviors of the fracture system with hot water injection/withdrawal, therefore, help to design the experiments (e.g., to decide the duration of the cycles based on the flow rate the pump can provide, and the estimated fracture properties); 2. After the field experiment, to estimate the system properties during the experiment (as the size and shape of a fracture could change over time), and understand why system performance is different than what has been predicted, i.e., to help understand the meso-scale test; and, 3. To model the lab experiments and estimate fracture properties and storage efficiency. Ultimately, the experiment and numerical models could shed light on the processes and uncertainty happening during fracture activation and help understand the scaling between lab and field test, and finally, the design and optimization of potential fracture thermal energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Theoretical Analysis of a Single-Stage Gas-Fired Ejector Heat Pump Water Heater

Ejector driven systems have the ability to operate at high efficiencies, utilizing recycled thermal energy as a power source. For a typical ejector heat pump system, the increase of the condenser temperature reduces the coefficient of performance (COP). In addition, if the condenser temperature is higher than the critical temperature, the ejector may not function. In this situation, the condenser temperature must be reduced, and an additional heater will be utilized to heat the production water from the condenser temperature to the desired temperature. In this investigation, a single-stage gas-fired ejector heat pump (EHP) is investigated and thermodynamically modeled in order to optimize the system COP for the purpose of heating water by utilizing the thermal energy from the ambient air. The effects of the high-temperature evaporator (HTE) and low-temperature evaporator (LTE) temperatures on the ejector critical back pressure and the EHP system performance are examined for a HTE temperature range of 120–180 °C and LTE temperatures of 15.5, 17.5, and 19.5 °C. Results show that an optimized COP of the EHP system exists which depends on HTE and LTE temperatures, primary nozzle throat diameters. In addition, it is found that the EHP COP is independent of the ejector COP. From this investigation a maximum EHP COP of 1.31 is able to be achieved for a HTE temperature of 160 °C and a LTE temperature of 19.5 °C with a total heat capacity of 15.98 kW.

Spitzenberger, Jeremy↗

Evaluating the impact of peat soils and snow schemes on simulated active layer thickness at pan-Arctic permafrost sites

Abstract Permafrost stability is significantly influenced by the thermal buffering effects of snow and active-layer peat soils. In the warm season, peat soils act as a barrier to downward heat transfer mainly due to their low thermal conductivity. In the cold season, the snowpack serves as a thermal insulator, retarding the release of heat from the soil to the atmosphere. Currently, many global land models overestimate permafrost soil temperature and active layer thickness (ALT), partially due to inaccurate representations of soil organic matter (SOM) density profiles and snow thermal insulation. In this study, we evaluated the impacts of SOM and snow schemes on ALT simulations at pan-Arctic permafrost sites using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). We conducted simulations at the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) sites across the pan-Arctic domain. We improved ELM-simulated site-level ALT using a knowledge-based hierarchical optimization procedure and examined the effects of precipitation-phase partitioning methods (PPMs), snow compaction schemes, and snow thermal conductivity schemes on simulated snow depth, soil temperature, ALT, and CO 2 fluxes. Results showed that the optimized ELM significantly improved agreement with observed ALT (e.g. RMSE decreased from 0.83 m to 0.15 m). Our sensitivity analysis revealed that snow-related schemes significantly impact simulated snow thermal insulation levels, soil temperature, and ALT. For example, one of the commonly used snow thermal conductivity schemes (quadratic Sturm or SturmQua) generally produced warmer soil temperatures and larger ALT compared to the other two tested schemes. The SturmQua scheme also amplified the model’s sensitivity to PPMs and predicted deeper ALTs than the other two snow schemes under both current and future climates. The study highlights the importance of accurately representing snow-related processes and peat soils in land models to enhance permafrost dynamics simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FY21 Status Report on the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database (MSTDB) Development

This report describes the thermodynamic assessments for the ZrF 4 -BeF 2 , AlCl 3 -NaCl, AlCl3-KCl and the PuCl 3 -CsCl pseudo-binary subsystems. Calculation results are compared to the inputs used to optimize the adjustable model parameters. The data came from experimental studies reported in the open literature, from the MSR research community, and/or computational results generated within the NEAMS program and from collaborators. The models from the thermodynamic assessment of these salt systems are integrated into the MSTDB-TC (Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database-Thermochemical). A brief description of the companion MSTDB-TP (Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database-Thermophysical) is given along with an overview of the approach for predicting both thermodynamic and thermophysical property behavior of multicomponent systems.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Development and Demonstration of a Reduced-Order PWR Power Dispatch Simulator

This report describes the development, modeling, and results of a reduced-order thermal power dispatch pressurized water reactor (RO-TPD-PWR) power plant simulator that incorporates coupled electrical and thermal power dispatch to an industrial process. The simulator is built on models that have been developed in previous work, including a Rancor Microworld model previously developed by INL and the University of Idaho [Ref] and reactor core and secondary system models that have been published previously [Ref]. The simulator also includes a scalable model of a high temperature electrolysis (HTE) system that has been developed at INL. A particular benefit of the Rancor Microworld model is that it is compatible with a human-system interface (HMI) that has already been developed by the Human System Simulation Laboratory (HSSL) at INL that can emulate the control room of a PWR for realistic human-in-the-loop studies with mock nuclear power plant operating procedures. The results of these human-in-the-loop tests will be compared with similar tests using a commercial full-scope generic PWR (GPWR) simulator that has been modified to include thermal power dispatch, referred to as the TPD-GPWR [ , ]. The simplicity of the RO-TPD-PWR helps to better understand and verify the results of the TPD-GPWR, which employs >1,000 variables and has much greater complexity. A second key purpose of the RO-TPD-PWR simulator is that its relative simplicity allows it scale between lab-size equipment (~100 kW) and full-scale nuclear power plants (~1 GW) by adjusting only a few parameters in the models, such as fluid masses and heat exchanger areas. The RO-TPD-PWR simulator will be used to guide the controls of lab tests, so that equipment in those tests, such as the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) and pilot-scale high temperature electrolysis (HTE) units at scales of 50-250 kW, may operate in a manner that is relevant to full-scale PWR operations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Plant-specific Model and Data Analysis using Dynamic Security Modeling and Simulation

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large on-site physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an update on the progress in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available force-on-force simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework or MASS-DEF. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report does not contain any plant's sensitive information and/or Safeguards Information. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DECOVALEX-2019 (Task B Final Report)

The DECOVALEX Project is an on-going international research collaboration, established in 1992, to advance the understanding and modeling of coupled Thermal (T), Hydrological (H), Mechanical (M) and Chemical (C) processes in geological in geological systems. DECOVALEX was initially motivated by the recognition that prediction of these coupled effects is an essential part of the performance and safety assessment of geologic disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel. This document is the final report of Task B which was proposed and coordinated by the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), presenting the technical definitions of the problems studied, approaches applied, achievements made and outstanding issues for future research. Task B focused mainly on modelling of fault activation experiments (FS experiment) recently performed at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory, Switzerland. The FS experiment explores the coupling between fault reactivation in a clay host rock and the potential-enhanced fluid displacement through a previously low-permeability formation. Based on this experiment, the DECOVALEX-2019 Task B addresses how the change in permeability induced by the fault activation and the resulting fluid flow within the fault can be simulated including the dependence on its mechanical behavior. This will support the understanding of the processes during fault activation itself and it can help to determine consequences for contaminant transport due to potentially created permeable flow paths in otherwise low permeability argillaceous rocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Environmental damping and vibrational coupling of confined fluids within isolated carbon nanotubes

Abstract Because of their large surface areas, nanotubes and nanowires demonstrate exquisite mechanical coupling to their surroundings, promising advanced sensors and nanomechanical devices. However, this environmental sensitivity has resulted in several ambiguous observations of vibrational coupling across various experiments. Herein, we demonstrate a temperature-dependent Radial Breathing Mode (RBM) frequency in free-standing, electron-diffraction-assigned Double-Walled Carbon Nanotubes (DWNTs) that shows an unexpected and thermally reversible frequency downshift of 10 to 15%, for systems isolated in vacuum. An analysis based on a harmonic oscillator model assigns the distinctive frequency cusp, produced over 93 scans of 3 distinct DWNTs, along with the hyperbolic trajectory, to a reversible increase in damping from graphitic ribbons on the exterior surface. Strain-dependent coupling from self-tensioned, suspended DWNTs maintains the ratio of spring-to-damping frequencies, producing a stable saturation of RBM in the low-tension limit. In contrast, when the interior of DWNTs is subjected to a water-filling process, the RBM thermal trajectory is altered to that of a Langmuir isobar and elliptical trajectories, allowing measurement of the enthalpy of confined fluid phase change. These mechanisms and quantitative theory provide new insights into the environmental coupling of nanomechanical systems and the implications for devices and nanofluidic conduits.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Coupled Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis and Species Mass Transport in a Versatile Experimental Salt Irradiation Loop (VESIL) Using CTF

With the resurgence of interest in molten salt reactors, there is a need for new experiments and modeling capabilities to characterize the unique phenomena present in this fluid fuel system. A Versatile Experimental Salt Irradiation Loop (VESIL) is currently under investigation at Idaho National Laboratory to be placed in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). One of the key phenomena this proposed experiment plans to elucidate is fission product speciation in the fuel-salt and the subsequent effects this has on the fuel-salt properties, source term generation, and corrosion control. Specifically, noble gases (Xe & Kr) will bubble out to a plenum or off-gas system, and noble metals (Mo, Tc, Te, etc.) will precipitate and deposit in specific zones in the loop. This work extends the mass transfer and species interaction models in CTF (Coolant-Boiling in Rod Arrays—Two Fluids) and applies these models to give a preliminary estimation of fission product behavior in the proposed VESIL design. A noble metal–helium bubble mass transfer model is coupled with the thermal-hydraulic results from CTF to determine the effectiveness of this insoluble fission product (IFP) extraction method for VESIL. Amounts of IFP species extracted to the off-gas system and species distributions in VESIL after a 60-day ATR cycle are reported.

Walker, Samuel A.↗

Assessment of SCALE and MELCOR for a generic pebble bed fluoride high-temperature reactor

This paper presents the development and application of SCALE and MELCOR models for a fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) based on publicly available specifications. SCALE version 6.3beta15 was used to generate power distributions and decay heat curves, and MELCOR version 2.2.18019 was used to calculate the thermal hydraulic response of an assumed FHR primary system. Here, an approach was developed for determining the equilibrium state of the core using depletion of a core slice model and blending of fuel compositions at different burnups to provide three-dimensional fuel composition in the core. Results compared between a core with entirely fresh fuel and one with an equilibrium fuel composition revealed that the equilibrium core led to lower steady-state temperatures but slower cooldown during a loss of flow accident (LOFA). A sensitivity study was then conducted to explore the transient response of our FHR system to variations in thermal hydraulic parameters of the system using the equilibrium core. The inlet temperature, graphite thermal conductivity, and SCRAM time all provided significant control over peak fuel and coolant temperatures. Uncertainties in radionuclide decay data in SCALE were used to perform a decay heat sensitivity study, and we found that uncertainties in decay heat led to negligible impact on peak temperatures during the course of the transient. In all cases evaluated, the observed peak fuel temperatures remained approximately 700 K below anticipated failure limits for the LOFA.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Thermal Image Processing for Feature Extraction from Encapsulated Phase Change Materials

Encapsulated inorganic particles with high melting points (>300 °C) are desired as high-temperature Phase Change Materials (PCMs) for next-generation Latent Heat Thermal Energy Storage (LHTES) systems. One of the many challenges during the development of PCMs is to achieve a high throughput that in turn depends on accurately modeling the relation between process parameters and geometric & thermal properties of the PCMs particle. During the production of the PCMs, a high-speed infrared camera is used to acquire images of the encapsulated material under controlled illumination conditions. This research article focuses on the development of image processing techniques for both geometric and thermal feature extraction during the development of the PCMs. A user-friendly GUI has been designed in MATLAB and preliminary experimental results have demonstrated that the method is fast, accurate and reliable for a high throughput production. The extracted features will be used to develop Machine Learning (ML) models to predict the geometric and thermal properties of the PCM based on the process parameter settings. The ML model will accelerate the search for the optimized process settings to boost the throughput of the production.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Projecting the Thermal Response in a HTGR-Type System during Conduction Cooldown Using Graph-Laplacian Based Machine Learning

Accurate prediction of an off-normal event in a nuclear reactor is dependent upon the availability of sensory data, reactor core physical condition, and understanding of the underlying phenomenon. This work presents a method to project the data from some discrete sensory locations to the overall reactor domain during conduction cooldown scenarios similar to High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs). The existing models for conductive cooldown in a heterogeneous multi-body system, such as an assembly of prismatic blocks or pebble beds relies on knowledge of the thermal contact conductance, requiring significant knowledge of local thermal contacts and heat transport possibilities across those contacts. With a priori knowledge of bulk geometry features and some discrete sensors, a machine learning approach was devised. The presented work uses an experimental facility to mimic conduction cooldown with an assembly of 68 cylindrical rods initially heated to 1200 K. High-fidelity temperature data were collected using an infrared (IR) camera to provide training data to the model and validate the predicted temperature data. The machine learning approach used here first converts the macroscopic bulk geometry information into Graph-Laplacian, and then uses the eigenvectors of the Graph-Laplacian to develop Kernel functions. Support vector regression (SVR) was implemented on the obtained Kernels and used to predict the thermal response in a packed rod assembly during a conduction cooldown experiment. The usage of SVR modeling differs from most models today because of its representation of thermal coupling between rods in the core. When trained with thermographic data, the average normalized error is less than 2% over 400 s, during which temperatures of the assembly have dropped by more than 500 K. The rod temperature prediction performance was significantly better for rods in the interior of the assembly compared to those near the exterior, likely due to the model simplification of the surroundings.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Aggregation and data driven identification of building thermal dynamic model and unmeasured disturbance

An aggregate model is a single-zone equivalent of a multi-zone building, and is useful for many purposes, including model based control of large heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. This paper deals with the problem of simultaneously identifying an aggregate thermal dynamic model and unknown disturbances from input–output data of multi-zone buildings. The unknown disturbance is a key challenge since it is not measurable but non-negligible. In this paper, we first present a principled method to aggregate a multi-zone building model into a single zone model, and show the aggregation is not as trivial as it has been assumed in the prior art. We then provide a method to identify the parameters of the model and the unknown disturbance for this aggregate (single-zone) model. Finally, we test our proposed identification algorithm to data collected from a multi-zone building testbed in Oak Ridge National Laboratory. A key insight provided by the aggregation method allows us to recognize under what conditions the estimation of the disturbance signal will be necessarily poor and uncertain, even in the case of a specially designed test in which the disturbances affecting each zone are known (as the case of our experimental testbed). This insight is used to provide a heuristic that can be used to assess when the identification results are likely to have high or low accuracy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Photosynthetic capacity is reduced by warming but unaffected by elevated CO2 in seedlings of five boreal tree species

Abstract Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations fuel global warming, with boreal regions warming at a faster rate than many other areas. Boreal forests are an important component of the global carbon cycle, yet we have little data on photosynthetic responses of boreal trees to elevated CO2 (EC) and warming. We grew seedlings of 5 widespread North American boreal tree species (from Betula, Larix, Picea, and Pinus) under current (410 ppm) or elevated (750 ppm) CO2 and either ambient (+0 °C) or increased (+4 °C or +8 °C) temperature, then measured photosynthetic traits over a range of leaf temperatures. Our results were generally consistent across species: photosynthetic capacity (maximum rates of Rubisco carboxylation, Vcmax, and electron transport, Jmax) was unaffected by EC but decreased under +8 °C warming. Accordingly, net photosynthesis measured at the growth CO2 concentration (Agrowth) was reduced under warming and increased under EC. The thermal optimum for Agrowth (ToptA) increased by ∼1.8 °C with EC but increased with warming in only two species. In contrast, the activation energies and thermal optima for Vcmax and Jmax, which are used to estimate photosynthesis in Earth System Models, were unaffected by growth environment. There were a few interactions between growth, CO2, and warming. These results suggest increased photosynthesis of widespread boreal tree species under EC may be offset by future reductions in photosynthetic capacity related to warming. We also show that the temperature sensitivities of parameters used to estimate global photosynthesis in large-scale models are generally unaffected by simulated climate change in these species.

Plant Sciences↗