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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Mortality among Tennessee Eastman Corporation (TEC) uranium processing workers, 1943–2019

Background: There are few occupational studies of women exposed to ionizing radiation. During World War II, the Tennessee Eastman Corporation (TEC) operated an electromagnetic field separation facility of 1152 calutrons to obtain enriched uranium (235U) used for the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Thousands of women were involved in these operations. Materials and methods: We report a new study was conducted of 13,951 women and 12,699 men employed at TEC between 1943 and 1947 for at least 90 days. Comprehensive dose reconstruction techniques were used to estimate lung doses from the inhalation of uranium dust based on airborne measurements. Vital status through 2018/2019 was obtained from the National Death Index, Social Security Death Index, Tennessee death records and online public record databases. Analyses included standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Most workers were hourly (77.7%), white (95.6%), born before 1920 (58.3%), worked in dusty environments (57.0%), and had died (94.9%). Vital status was confirmed for 97.4% of the workers. Women were younger than men when first employed: mean ages 25.0 years and 33.0 years, respectively. The estimated mean absorbed dose to the lung was 32.7 mGy (max 1048 mGy) for women and 18.9 mGy (max 501 mGy) for men. The mean dose to thoracic lymph nodes (TLNs) was 127 mGy. Statistically significant SMRs were observed for lung cancer (SMR 1.25; 95% CI 1.19, 1.31; n = 1654), nonmalignant respiratory diseases (NMRDs) (1.23; 95% CI 1.19, 1.28; n = 2585), and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) (1.13; 95% CI 1.08, 1.18; n = 1945). For lung cancer, the excess relative rate (ERR) at 100 mGy (95% CI) was 0.01 (–0.10, 0.12; n = 652) among women, and –0.15 (–0.38, 0.07; n = 1002) among men based on a preferred model for men with lung doses <300 mGy. NMRD and non-Hodgkin lymphoma were not associated with estimated absorbed dose to the lung or TLN. Conclusions: There was little evidence that radiation increased the risk of lung cancer, suggesting that inhalation of uranium dust and the associated high-LET alpha particle exposure to lung tissue experienced over a few years is less effective in causing lung cancer than other types of exposures. There was no statistically significant difference in the lung cancer risk estimates between men and women. The elevation of certain causes of death such as CeVD is unexplained and will require additional scrutiny of workplace or lifestyle factors given that radiation is an unlikely contributor since only the lung and lymph nodes received appreciable dose.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Avalanches and many-body resonances in many-body localized systems

Here we numerically study both the avalanche instability and many-body resonances in strongly disordered spin chains exhibiting many-body localization (MBL). Finite-size systems behave like MBL within the MBL regimes, which we divide into the asymptotic MBL phase and the finite-size MBL regime; the latter regime is, however, thermal in the limit of large systems and long times. In both Floquet and Hamiltonian models, we identify some landmarks within the MBL regimes. Our first landmark is an estimate of where the MBL phase becomes unstable to avalanches, obtained by measuring the slowest relaxation rate of a finite chain coupled to an infinite bath at one end. Our estimates indicate that the actual MBL-to-thermal phase transition occurs much deeper in the MBL regimes than has been suggested by most previous studies. Our other landmarks involve systemwide many-body resonances: We find that the effective matrix elements producing eigenstates with systemwide many-body resonances are enormously broadly distributed. This broad distribution means that the onset of such resonances in typical samples occurs quite deep in the MBL regimes, and the first such resonances typically involve rare pairs of eigenstates that are farther apart in energy than the minimum gap. Thus we find that the resonance properties define two landmarks that divide the MBL regimes of finite-size systems into three subregimes: (i) at strongest randomness, typical samples do not have any eigenstates that are involved in systemwide many-body resonances; (ii) there is a substantial intermediate subregime where typical samples do have such resonances but the pair of eigenstates with the minimum spectral gap does not, so the size of the minimum gap agrees with expectations from Poisson statistics; and (iii) in the weaker randomness subregime, the minimum gap is larger than predicted by Poisson level statistics because it is involved in a many-body resonance and thus subject to level repulsion. Nevertheless, even in this third subregime, all but a vanishing fraction of eigenstates remain nonresonant and the system thus still appears MBL in most respects. Based on our estimates of the location of the avalanche instability, it might be that the MBL phase is only part of subregime (i) and the other subregimes are entirely in the thermal phase, even though they look localized in most respects, so are in the finite-size MBL regime.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Compilation of a Solar Mirror Materials Database and an Analysis of Natural and Accelerated Mirror Exposure and Degradation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been conducting exposure experiments on solar reflectors for over four decades. Thousands of mirror samples from over one hundred suppliers have been exposed to and monitored in a range of relevant environments. These test conditions include outdoor test settings and several controlled laboratory environments. These samples have been rigorously individually characterized using a series of reflectance measurements, visual inspections, and in some cases, in-depth composition analysis to identify degradation modes, reflectance losses, and other mirror properties integral to understanding the solar reflector's life cycle. Here, this paper compiles the decades of measurement data into a concise statistical analysis. It includes exposure and degradation data for numerous reflector types, including secondary-surface reflector permutations of polymer and glass superstrates with silver and aluminum reflectors as well as front-surface reflectors. The results herein are intended to analyze environmental stressors and degradation trends among various historical and state-of-the-art solar reflectors. It may be used to support solar reflector design, effective testing methodology, and inform manufacturing decisions moving forward. Presented are the results of the compiled database and an initial analysis for degradation rate modeling using full-spectrum and wavelength-dependent approaches. The database is a growing resource hosted on a live, publicly accessible website. In conjunction with the analysis presented here, it provides a valuable resource to the solar reflector manufacturing and testing industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1992

Indian Ocean analyses

The background and goals of Indian Ocean thermal sampling are discussed from the perspective of a national project which has research goals relevant to variation of climate in Australia. The critical areas of SST variation are identified. The first goal of thermal sampling at this stage is to develop a climatology of thermal structure in the areas and a description of the annual variation of major currents. The sampling strategy is reviewed. Dense XBT sampling is required to achieve accurate, monthly maps of isotherm-depth because of the high level of noise in the measurements caused by aliasing of small scale variation. In the Indian Ocean ship routes dictate where adequate sampling can be achieved. An efficient sampling rate on available routes is determined based on objective analysis. The statistical structure required for objective analysis is described and compared at 95 locations in the tropical Pacific and 107 in the tropical Indian Oceans. XBT data management and quality control methods at CSIRO are reviewed. Results on the mean and annual variation of temperature and baroclinic structure in the South Equatorial Current and Pacific/Indian Ocean Throughflow are presented for the region between northwest Australia and Java-Timor. The mean relative geostrophic transport (0/400 db) of Throughflow is approximately 5 x 106 m3/sec. A nearly equal volume transport is associated with the reference velocity at 400 db. The Throughflow feeds the South Equatorial Current, which has maximum westward flow in August/September, at the end of the southeasterly Monsoon season. A strong semiannual oscillation in the South Java Current is documented. The results are in good agreement with the Semtner and Chervin (1988) ocean general circulation model. The talk concludes with comments on data inadequacies (insufficient coverage, timeliness) particular to the Indian Ocean and suggestions on the future role that can be played by Data Centers, particularly with regard to quality control of data as research bodies are replaced by operational bodies in the Global Ocean Observing System.

Meyers, Gary↗
DOE OSTI2020

The influence of environmental microseismicity on detection and interpretation of small-magnitude events in a polar glacier setting

Glacial environments exhibit temporally variable microseismicity. To investigate how microseismicity influences event detection, we implement two noise-adaptive digital power detectors to process seismic data from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. We add scaled icequake waveforms to the original data stream, run detectors on the hybrid data stream to estimate reliable detection magnitudes and compare analytical magnitudes predicted from an ice crack source model. We find that detection capability is influenced by environmental microseismicity for seismic events with source size comparable to thermal penetration depths. When event counts and minimum detectable event sizes change in the same direction (i.e. increase in event counts and minimum detectable event size), we interpret measured seismicity changes as ‘true’ seismicity changes rather than as changes in detection. Generally, one detector (two degree of freedom (2dof)) outperforms the other: it identifies more events, a more prominent summertime diurnal signal and maintains a higher detection capability. We conclude that real physical processes are responsible for the summertime diurnal inter-detector difference. One detector (3dof) identifies this process as environmental microseismicity; the other detector (2dof) identifies it as elevated waveform activity. Our analysis provides an example for minimizing detection biases and estimating source sizes when interpreting temporal seismicity patterns to better infer glacial seismogenic processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hawai‘i Play Fairway (Final Report)

Most of Hawai'i's geothermal resources are blind—their manifestations, such as hot springs and steam vents, do not appear on the ground surface because the heated water flows far below. With the exception of $K\bar{i}lauea East Rift Zone$, in most areas of Hawai'i, high lateral permeability in the first kilometer below ground surface prevents surface thermal features from developing. As a methodology for discovering these blind resources, Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) involves finding potential locations of blind hydrothermal systems and describing potential geothermal sources in rift-zone settings. Using the PFA to find Hawai'i's geothermal resources, the University of Hawai'i (UH) conducted the Hawai‘i Play Fairway Project, Hawai'i's first statewide geothermal resource assessment since 1985. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Hawai'i Play Fairway Project provided an updated resource assessment, a roadmap for additional exploration activities, and the identification of areas for further exploration. Benefitting from UH's core competency in earth sciences and experienced geothermal researchers, the project comprised three phases. During the first phase, the team identified, compiled, and ranked existing geologic, groundwater, and geophysical datasets relevant to subsurface heat, fluid and permeability. Using a Bayesian statistical approach, the team developed a statistical methodology to integrate these data into a resource probability map. The team evaluated the confidence in the probability value and considered development viability of areas with geothermal resources. With these analyses, the team identified 10 locations in the Hawaiian Islands for exploration activities. For the second phase, the team collected new groundwater data in 10 locations across the state and new geophysical data on $L\bar{a}na‘i, Maui$, and central Hawai'i Island and modeled topographically induced stress to better characterize subsurface permeability. Analyzing the subsurface stresses, the team evaluated the potential for fracture-induced permeability. The team inverted the MT and gravity data to produce 3D models of resistivity and density, respectively, on $L\bar{a}na‘i$, across $Haleakal\bar{a}'s$ SW rift (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea (Hawai‘i Island). The team developed and applied a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and potential for fracture-induced permeability into the statistical method for computing resource probability in these three focus areas. The team incorporated the new groundwater results with the new geophysical results and the calculations of potential for fracture-induced permeability to produce updated maps of resource probability and confidence. Through combining data from the first and second phases, the team determined locations for further exploration during the third phase. For MT and gravity surveys, the team recommended $Kaua'i's$ $L\bar{i}hu'e$ $Basin$, the east rift of $Maui's$ $Haleakal\bar{a}$ volcano, and the southwest rift of Hawai'i Island's Mauna Loa volcano. The MT and gravity surveys aimed to enable improved confidence in the resource potential in these locations. For drilling deep groundwater well(s), the team recommended Southeast Mauna Kea and $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$. During the third phase, further exploration involved drilling a groundwater well in $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$ and performing more geophysical surveys. We deepened an existing water well proximal to our target area on $L\bar{a}na'i$ due to funding constraints that precluded us from spudding a new well that would exceed 1km depth. Drilling was preceded by a number of substantial elements including: writing an Environmental Assessment and the subsequent legal process, performance of deviation logging, lowering a camera down the well, coordinating site preparation with $P\bar{u}lama$ $L\bar{a}na'i$, shipping the UH-owned rig interisland, procuring supplies, and leading 3 community meetings on $L\bar{a}na'i$. Drilling occurred 24/7 the entire month of June 2019 over which time $L\bar{a}na'i$ $Well$ 10 was deepened from 427 m to 1057 m, with continuous core collected. We measured a roughly linear temperature gradient averaging 42°C/km and a maximum bottom hole temperature of 66°C. This gradient is more than twice the background for Hawai'i and within a range of gradients measured in this depth range for some exploration wells within KERZ. We consider these results encouraging for $L\bar{a}na'i's$ resource potential and recommend following with a slim hole within $L\bar{a}na'i's$ caldera (our target zone) to ~ 2 km. Further, the positive implications such results have for the island of O‘ahu are substantial - the shield stage of O'ahu's volcanoes ended 1-2 My earlier. However, O'ahu uses more electricity than the rest of the islands combined, and the utility recently called for 500-700MW of firm, dispatchable renewable electricity on O'ahu by 2033. In Phase 3, we also collected limited new encouraging groundwater data, and updated our thoughts on the probabilities of fluid and permeability at resource depths (Pr F = 1; Pr P = mostly unconstrained). Ultimately, we advocate for using our final probability of heat, and confidence in this probability, to drive the next phase of exploration. We contend further development of geothermal in Hawai‘i will enable the state to achieve its 100% renewable policy objective and Hawai'i to transition off of fossil fuels through geothermal discovery and development. The project not only produced a large amount of data and expanded the existing knowledge of Hawai'i's geothermal resources, but also produced publications, theses, presentations, core photos, datasets, media reports, television interviews, community events, and a blog. Students and new professionals benefitted from the project's hands-on research experiences and educational opportunities and earned awards and recognition.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Statistical Mechanics of Solar Wind Hydroxylation at the Moon, Within Lunar Magnetic Anomalies, and at Phobos

We present a new formalism to describe the outgassing of hydrogen initially implanted by the solar wind protons into exposed soils on airless bodies. The formalism applies a statistical mechanics approach similar to that applied recently to molecular adsorption onto activated surfaces. The key element enabling this formalism is the recognition that the interatomic potential between the implanted H and regolith-residing oxides is not of singular value but possess a distribution of trapped energy values at a given temperature, F(U,T). All subsequent derivations of the outward diffusion and H retention rely on the specific properties of this distribution. We find that solar wind hydrogen can be retained if there are sites in the implantation layer with activation energy values exceeding 0.5eV. We especially examine the dependence of H retention applying characteristic energy values found previously for irradiated silica and mature lunar samples. We also apply the formalism to two cases that differ from the typical solar wind implantation at the Moon. First, we test for a case of implantation in magnetic anomaly regions where significantly lower-energy ions of solar wind origin are expected to be incident with the surface. In magnetic anomalies, H retention is found to be reduced due to the reduced ion flux and shallower depth of implantation. Second, we also apply the model to Phobos where the surface temperature range is not as extreme as the Moon. We find the H atom retention in this second case is higher than the lunar case due to the reduced thermal extremes (that reduces outgassing).

Solar Wind↗
DOE OSTI2025

Medium-range order and compositional correlation in metallic glasses

The compositional atomic ordering in metallic glasses was studied by simulation focusing on the medium-range order (MRO). Many metallic alloy liquids and glasses show MRO characterized by the oscillations in the atomic pair-distribution function (PDF) beyond the first peak, which decay exponentially with distance. To study the effects of the local chemical order on MRO, we examine the compositionally resolved PDF and its MRO for models of various binary metallic alloy glasses. We show that compositional ordering is limited mostly to the nearest-neighbor atoms and the MRO is largely independent of the compositional order. For some elements that strongly repel each other in the alloy, a second MRO periodicity is observed owing to the distinct correlations among them. These results are discussed in light of the idea that the MRO oscillations in the PDF describe the correlations in the atomic density fluctuations, rather than the detailed local atomic structure.

Atomic structure↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exoplanet Yield Sensitivity for the Hybrid Lyot Coronagraph from end-to-end modeling for LUVOIR-A

NASA's future direct imaging flagship mission will require telescope mirror segmentation to survey a statistically significant population of nearby stellar systems by increasing aperture size beyond that achieved by traditional space-borne monolithic apertures thus far. Segmentation is a path for the size expansion, but it entails a challenge due to the introduction of temporal pupil discontinuities in terms of both phase and amplitude. Modeling of the integrated performance of the coronagraph with the expected dynamical profile of the telescope is an important step toward realistic estimates of the mission's science yields. We present results of a study using the hybrid Lyot coronagraph with a 15-m on-axis, segmented optical telescope assembly (OTA), akin to that of the Large UV / Optical /Infrared (LUVOIR) mission. We have developed a high-fidelity, end-to-end model as part of the Segmented Coronagraph Design and Analysis (SCDA) study that includes diffractive optical propagations at the 1e-10 contrast level across the optical train including the OTA and intermediate re-imaging optics inside the coronagraph instrument. We perform a sensitivity analysis to assess the contrast sensitivity to wavefront perturbations for a set of key telescope terms including segment-level low-order and mid-spatial frequency aberrations and evaluate expected exoplanet yields obtained in the presence of these sets of aberrations. Industry-provided segment-level wavefront aberration datasets involving the following mechanisms are input to the end-to-end model: (1) thermal gradients and accelerations, and (2) telescope dynamics including line-of-sight and segment jitter. Dynamically averaged PSFs in the presence of aberrations are fed into AYO (Altruistic Yield Optimization), a mission design reference simulator, that then assesses the scientific yield sensitivities.

high-contrast imaging↗
DOE OSTI2021

Asymmetric temperature equilibration with heat flow from cold to hot in a quantum thermodynamic system

A model computational quantum thermodynamic network is constructed with two variable temperature baths coupled by a linker system, with an asymmetry in the coupling of the linker to the two baths. It is found in computational simulations that the baths come to “thermal equilibrium” at different bath energies and temperatures. In a sense, heat is observed to flow from cold to hot. Additionally, a description is given in which a recently defined quantum entropy S univ Q for a pure state “universe” continues to increase after passing through the classical equilibrium point of equal temperatures, reaching a maximum at the asymmetric equilibrium. Thus, a second law account Δ S univ Q ≥ 0 holds for the asymmetric quantum process. In contrast, a von Neumann entropy description fails to uphold the entropy law, with a maximum near when the two temperatures are equal, then a decrease Δ S v N < 0 on the way to the asymmetric equilibrium.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2000

Constraints on Cosmological Parameters From The Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect and Thermal Bremsstrahlung

We discuss the possibility of constraining cosmological parameters using the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect and thermal bremsstrahlung caused by intra-cluster gas in clusters of galaxies. The new generation of X-ray satellites and ground based interferometers dedicated to SZ observations will enable one to reduce uncertainties in these measurements, and thus make this method potentially quite promising in the near future. The importance of this method is that, unlike most other methods, it is based on physical principles, no 'standard candles' or 'rulers' needed. We estimate the accuracy achievable in the determination of the matter density, OMEGA(sub m), the cosmological constant, OMEGA(sub LAMBDA), and the Hubble constant, h, using the redshift dependence of the angular diameter distance derived from observations in the near future. We demonstrate that constraints from the angular diameter distance are orthogonal to those from Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) fluctuations in the parameter space defined by OMEGA(sub m), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA), and h. Assuming a statistical error of five percent in the angular diameter distance for each cluster in a sample of five hundred clusters, we show that the redshift dependence of the angular diameter distance combined with constraints from CMB fluctuations can put stringent constraints on OMEGA(sub m) (+/- 0.03), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) (+/- 0.03) and h (+/- 0.03, 3(sigma) errors). We also show that, with as few as 50 clusters between redshifts 0.01 and 1.5 with an assumed 10% statistical error in the angular diameter distance determination, one can distinguish between models with zero cosmological constant and spatially flat models with a cosmological constant with high confidence level (independently from the supernova results) and put meaningful constraints on OMEGA(sub m) (+/- 0.01), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) (+/- 0.01) and h (+/- 0.01, 3(sigma) errors). With the expected advances in observational technology, we will be limited by systematic errors. We discuss the sources of systematic errors and how they can be reduced.

Molnar, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Influence of Coronal Abundance Variations

The PI of this project was Jeff Scargle of NASA/Ames. Co-I's were Alma Connors of Eureka Scientific/Wellesley, and myself. Part of the work was subcontracted to Eureka Scientific via SAO, with Vinay Kashyap as PI. This project was originally assigned grant number NCC2-1206, and was later changed to NCC2-1350 for administrative reasons. The goal of the project was to obtain, derive, and develop statistical and data analysis tools that would be of use in the analyses of high-resolution, high-sensitivity data that are becoming available with new instruments. This is envisioned as a cross-disciplinary effort with a number of "collaborators" including some at SA0 (Aneta Siemiginowska, Peter Freeman) and at the Harvard Statistics department (David van Dyk, Rostislav Protassov, Xiao-li Meng, Epaminondas Sourlas, et al). We have developed a new tool to reliably measure the metallicities of thermal plasma. It is unfeasible to obtain high-resolution grating spectra for most stars, and one must make the best possible determination based on lower-resolution, CCD-type spectra. It has been noticed that most analyses of such spectra have resulted in measured metallicities that were significantly lower than when compared with analyses of high- resolution grating data where available (see, e.g., Brickhouse et al., 2000, ApJ 530,387). Such results have led to the proposal of the existence of so-called Metal Abundance Deficient, or "MAD" stars (e.g., Drake, J.J., 1996, Cool Stars 9, ASP Conf.Ser. 109, 203). We however find that much of these analyses may be systematically underestimating the metallicities, and using a newly developed method to correctly treat the low-counts regime at the high-energy tail of the stellar spectra (van Dyk et al. 2001, ApJ 548,224), have found that the metallicities of these stars are generally comparable to their photospheric values. The results were reported at the AAS (Sourlas, Yu, van Dyk, Kashyap, and Drake, 2000, BAAS 196, v32, #54.02), and at the conference on Statistical Challenges in Modem Astronomy (Sourlas, van Dyk, Kashyap, Drake, and Pease, 2003, SCMA 111, Eds. E.D.Feigelson, G.J.Babu, New York:Springer, p489-490). We also described the limitations of one of the most egregiously misused and misapplied statistical tests in astrophysical literature, the F-test for verifying model components (Protassov, van Dyk, Connors, Kashyap, and Siemiginowska, 2002, ApJ, 571,545). Indeed, a search through the ApJ archives turned up 170 papers in the 5 previous years that used the F-test explicitly in some form or the other, and with the vast majority of them not using it correctly! Indeed, looking at just 4 issues of the ApJ in 2001, we found 13 instances of its use, of which nine were demonstrably incorrect. Clearly, it is difficult to understate the importance of this issue. We also worked on speeding up Bayes Blocks and Sparse Bayes Blocks algorithms to make them more tractable for large searches. We also supported staistics students and postdocs in both explicit physics- model-based (spectra with tens of thousands of atomic lines) and "model-free" -- i.e. non-parametric or semi-parametric -- algorithms. Work on using more of the latter is just beginning; while using multi-scale methods for Poisson imaging has come to hition. In fact, "An Image Restoration Technique with Error Estimates", by D. Esch, A. Connors, M. Karovska, and D. van Dyk, was published by ApJ (Esch et a1.2004, ApJ, 610, 1213). The code has been delivered to M. Karovska for CXC; and is available for beta-testing upon request. The other large project we worked on was on the self-consistent modeling of logN-logs curves in the Poisson limit. logN-logs curves are a fundamental tool in the study of source populations, luminosity functions, and cosmological parameters. However, their determination is hampered by statistical effects such as the Eddington bias, incompleteness due to detection efficiency, faint source flux fluctuations, etc. We have develed a new and powerful method using the full Poisson machinery that allows us to model the logN-logs distribution of X-ray sources in a self-consistent manner. Because we properly account for all the above statistical effects, our modeling is valid over the full range of the data, and not just for strong sources, as is normally done. Using a Bayesian approach and modeling the fluxes with known functional forms such as simple or broken power-laws, and conditioning the expected photon counts on the fluxes, the background contamination, effective area, detector vignetting, and detection probability, we can delve deeply into the low counts regime and extend the usefulness of medium sensitivity surveys such as ChAMP by orders of magnitude. The built-in flexibility of the algorithm also allows a simultaneous analysis of multiple datasets. We have applied this analysis to a set a Chandra observations (Sourlas, Kashyap, Zezas, van Dyk, 2004, HEAD #8, #16.32)

Scargle, Jeffrey D.↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Origin of the X-Ray and Ultraviolet Emission in NGC 7469

We present a spectral analysis of a approx 30 day, near-continuous observation of the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 7469 with RXTE. Daily integrations show strong spectral changes during the observation. Our main result is that we find the X-ray spectral index to be correlated with the UV flux. Furthermore, the broadband X-ray photon flux is also correlated with the UV continuum. These correlations point toward a model in which the X-rays originate via thermal Comptonization of UV seed photons. Furthermore, the UV is also correlated with the extrapolation of the X-ray power law into the soft X-ray/EUV region. Our data analysis therefore reopens the possibility that the UV photons and their variability arise from reprocessing, as long as the primary source of heating is photoelectric absorption in the re-processor, rather than Compton down-scattering. A coherent picture of the X-ray/UV variability can therefore be constructed whereby absorption and reprocessing of EUV/soft X-rays in a standard accretion disk produce a variable seed photon distribution, which is in turn up-scattered into the X-ray band. We also find a significant correlation between the 2-10 keV flux and the 6.4 keV iron K-alpha line, suggesting that at least some portion of the line originates within approx. 1 light day of the X-ray continuum source. Neither the power-law photon index nor the Compton reflection component are correlated with the 2-10 keV flux. The latter is not correlated with the iron K-alpha line flux either. We do find an apparent correlation between the X-ray spectral index and the strength of the Compton reflection component. In an Appendix we show, however, that this can be produced by a combination of statistical and systematic errors. We conclude that the apparent variations in the Compton reflection component may be an artifact of these effects.

Nandra, K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Distinguishing fissile uranium isotopes using an active well neutron coincidence counter

Proposed thorium-based nuclear fuel cycles are likely to require quantification and verification of 233 U within nuclear material. Because of their similar fission cross sections, active neutron nondestructive assay (NDA) systems may respond similarly to 233 U and 235 U. Traditional safeguards equipment has been optimized for 235 U and 238 U quantification associated with conventional uranium/plutonium fuel cycles and may not be directly applicable to 233 U quantification when mixed with other actinides. This work used models of the large volume active well coincidence counter (LV-AWCC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to evaluate the performance of this neutron NDA system to differentiate fissile uranium isotopes. The models were developed to simulate NDA system performance in response to a number of triangular radiation signature training device sources within the central cavity or well. This work predicted that the LV-AWCC can effectively differentiate 233 U from 235 U in certain modes of operation. In active mode, the LV-AWCC with the cadmium liner results in different doubles count rates between the fissile isotopes for a given fissile uranium mass. Without the cadmium liner, the uranium isotopes provide a statistically indistinguishable doubles count rate response for the fissile masses considered in this work (up to approximately 150 g). The cadmium liner serves to harden the neutron interrogation spectrum, which better exploits the notable difference in the 233 U and 235 U fission cross sections at approximately 1 eV. In passive mode, the two fissile isotopes exhibit different doubles and singles count rates regardless of liner presence because the passive source strength of 233 U is approximately 2 orders of magnitude stronger than that of 235 U due to the shorter half-life and correspondingly higher (α, n) yield. We conclude that using neutron interrogation in the LV-AWCC, two measurements are needed to quantify 233 U content in mixed uranium items. The first measurement is used to determine the total fissile uranium mass using a mode that cannot distinguish fissile isotopes (i.e., where a similar response is observed for both fissile uranium isotopes such as active doubles without cadmium or using a thermal neutron interrogation source). In conclusion, the second measurement is used to determine the 233 U content by using a differentiating technique (e.g., passive doubles, passive doubles to singles ratio, active doubles with cadmium).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1998

Comparison of Surface Ground Temperature from Satellite Observations and the Off-Line Land Surface GEOS Assimilation System

The surface ground temperature (Tg) is an important meteorological variable, because it represents an integrated thermal state of the land surface determined by a complex surface energy budget. Furthermore, Tg affects both the surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. Through these fluxes. the surface budget is coupled with the atmosphere above. Accurate Tg data are useful for estimating the surface radiation budget and fluxes, as well as soil moisture. Tg is not included in conventional synoptical weather station reports. Currently, satellites provide Tg estimates globally. It is necessary to carefully consider appropriate methods of using these satellite data in a data assimilation system. Recently, an Off-line Land surface GEOS Assimilation (OLGA) system was implemented at the Data Assimilation Office at NASA-GSFC. One of the goals of OLGA is to assimilate satellite-derived Tg data. Prior to the Tg assimilation, a thorough investigation of satellite- and model-derived Tg, including error estimates, is required. In this study we examine the Tg from the n Project (ISCCP DI) data and the OLGA simulations. The ISCCP data used here are 3-hourly DI data (2.5x2.5 degree resolution) for 1992 summer months (June, July, and August) and winter months (January and February). The model Tg for the same periods were generated by OLGA. The forcing data for this OLGA 1992 simulation were generated from the GEOS-1 Data Assimilation System (DAS) at Data Assimilation Office NASA-GSFC. We examine the discrepancies between ISCCP and OLGA Tg with a focus on its spatial and temporal characteristics, particularly on the diurnal cycle. The error statistics in both data sets, including bias, will be estimated. The impact of surface properties, including vegetation cover and type, topography, etc, on the discrepancies will be addressed.

Yang, R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Global Geospace Science (GGS)/POLAR Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiments (TIDE) Co-Investigator Program: Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MO/DA)

We have pursued several investigations using the Polar/TIDE data set. The first was a comparison of TIDE high-altitude observations with similar ion flux signatures in the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) magnetospheric plasma analyzer (MPA) data. There are several geosynchronously orbiting satellites with LANL MPA instruments onboard. When the satellite is immersed in fresh plasma sheet electrons, the spacecraft voltage drops to several hundred volts negative, and cold ions are accelerated in to the detector. In the LANL MPA spectrograms, the accelerated cold ions appear as a bright, narrow line, following the voltage of the spacecraft. This "ion line" is seen regularly on the nightside, but has not received much attention. The Polar TIDE observations indicated a ubiquitous "lobal wind" in the near-- magnetotail, a field-aligned stream of approx. 100 eV ions flowing out of both polar ionospheres. The interesting result of this research is that the MPA ion line is also peaked in the field-aligned direction, even though the potential well should be uniform in all directions. It is believed that this is evidence that the lobal winds not only populate the high-latitude lobes, but fill the lobes all the way in to the near-Earth plasma sheet (the location of geosynchronous orbit). This activity developed into a full-scale survey of the lobal wind observations in the TIDE database. The universality of these observations with respect to local time and solar wind conditions implies that the ionospheric outflow is supplying the near-Earth plasma sheet at all times, regardless of magnetic activity. We have conducted a statistical study of the characteristics of the lobal wind in these two data sets FIDE and LANL MPA), finding much similarity between them. Using these characteristics as input conditions to our inner magnetosphere ion transport model, we have conducted simulations of the flow of these particles inside of geosynchronous orbit to show the impact these particles will have on the near-Earth space environment. As the study has progressed, these results have been presented several times to the TIDE team during teleconferences. It is planned to present this survey at the GEM 2004 Summer Workshop, and hopefully at additional conferences in the near future. We are presently writing a paper on the lobal wind occurrence statistics, which should be submitted in April or May to the Journal of Geophysical Research for publication. An undergraduate student at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, Will Maddox, working at NASA MSFC with Dr. Paul Craven, is presently creating a database of the values TIDE moments for the lobal wind (under Dr. Liemohn's guidance), and this will be the focus of a follow-on paper.

Nagy, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS1997

Design Protocols and Analytical Strategies that Incorporate Structural Reliability Models

Ceramic matrix composites (CMC) and intermetallic materials (e.g., single crystal nickel aluminide) are high performance materials that exhibit attractive mechanical, thermal, and chemical properties. These materials are critically important in advancing certain performance aspects of gas turbine engines. From an aerospace engineers perspective the new generation of ceramic composites and intermetallics offers a significant potential for raising the thrust/weight ratio and reducing NO(sub x) emissions of gas turbine engines. These aspects have increased interest in utilizing these materials in the hot sections of turbine engines. However, as these materials evolve and their performance characteristics improve a persistent need exists for state-of-the-art analytical methods that predict the response of components fabricated from CMC and intermetallic material systems. This need provided the motivation for the technology developed under this research effort. Continuous ceramic fiber composites exhibit an increase in work of fracture, which allows for 'graceful' rather than catastrophic failure. When loaded in the fiber direction these composites retain substantial strength capacity beyond the initiation of transverse matrix cracking despite the fact that neither of its constituents would exhibit such behavior if tested alone. As additional load is applied beyond first matrix cracking, the matrix tends to break in a series of cracks bridged by the ceramic fibers. Any additional load is born increasingly by the fibers until the ultimate strength of the composite is reached. Thus modeling efforts supported under this research effort have focused on predicting this sort of behavior. For single crystal intermetallics the issues that motivated the technology development involved questions relating to material behavior and component design. Thus the research effort supported by this grant had to determine the statistical nature and source of fracture in a high strength, NiAl single crystal turbine blade material; map a simplistic future strength envelope of the material; develop a statistically based reliability computer algorithm; verify the reliability model and computer algorithm-, and model stator vanes for rig tests. Thus establishing design protocols that enable the engineer to analyze and predict the mechanical behavior of ceramic composites and intermetallics would mitigate the prototype (trial and error) approach currently used by the engineering community. The primary objective of the research effort supported by this short term grant is the continued creation of enabling technologies for the macro-analysis of components fabricated from ceramic composites and intermetallic material systems. The creation of enabling technologies aids in shortening the product development cycle of components fabricated from the new high technology materials.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Design Protocols and Analytical Strategies that Incorporate Structural Reliability Models

Ceramic matrix composites (CMC) and intermetallic materials (e.g., single crystal nickel aluminide) are high performance materials that exhibit attractive mechanical, thermal and chemical properties. These materials are critically important in advancing certain performance aspects of gas turbine engines. From an aerospace engineer's perspective the new generation of ceramic composites and intermetallics offers a significant potential for raising the thrust/weight ratio and reducing NO(x) emissions of gas turbine engines. These aspects have increased interest in utilizing these materials in the hot sections of turbine engines. However, as these materials evolve and their performance characteristics improve a persistent need exists for state-of-the-art analytical methods that predict the response of components fabricated from CMC and intermetallic material systems. This need provided the motivation for the technology developed under this research effort. Continuous ceramic fiber composites exhibit an increase in work of fracture, which allows for "graceful" rather than catastrophic failure. When loaded in the fiber direction, these composites retain substantial strength capacity beyond the initiation of transverse matrix cracking despite the fact that neither of its constituents would exhibit such behavior if tested alone. As additional load is applied beyond first matrix cracking, the matrix tends to break in a series of cracks bridged by the ceramic fibers. Any additional load is born increasingly by the fibers until the ultimate strength of the composite is reached. Thus modeling efforts supported under this research effort have focused on predicting this sort of behavior. For single crystal intermetallics the issues that motivated the technology development involved questions relating to material behavior and component design. Thus the research effort supported by this grant had to determine the statistical nature and source of fracture in a high strength, NiAl single crystal turbine blade material; map a simplistic failure strength envelope of the material; develop a statistically based reliability computer algorithm, verify the reliability model and computer algorithm, and model stator vanes for rig tests. Thus establishing design protocols that enable the engineer to analyze and predict the mechanical behavior of ceramic composites and intermetallics would mitigate the prototype (trial and error) approach currently used by the engineering community. The primary objective of the research effort supported by this short term grant is the continued creation of enabling technologies for the macroanalysis of components fabricated from ceramic composites and intermetallic material systems. The creation of enabling technologies aids in shortening the product development cycle of components fabricated from the new high technology materials.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗