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The heat flow experiment installed on the lunar surface during the Apollo 15 flight is described. Subjects discussed are: (1) the experiment concept and design, (2) the operations of the experiment, (3) the employment of the experiment on the lunar surface at Hadley Rille site, (4) subsurface lunar temperatures, and (5) extrapolation of sensor temperatures to equilibrium values. Graphs of the data obtained from the experiment are provided.
Abstract. The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4 mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 ∘C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade.
In regions with long cold overcast winters and sunny summers, Deep Direct-Use (DDU) can be coupled with Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage (RTES) technology to take advantage of pre-existing subsurface permeability to save summer heat for later use during cold seasons. Many aquifers worldwide are underlain by permeable regions (reservoirs) containing brackish or saline groundwater that has limited beneficial use due to poor water quality. We investigate the utility of these relatively deep, slow flowing reservoirs for RTES by conducting an integrated feasibility study in the Portland Basin, Oregon, USA, developing methods and obtaining results that can be widely applied to RTES systems elsewhere. As a case study, we have conducted an economic and social cost-benefit analysis for the Oregon Health and Science University (OHSU), a teaching hospital that is recognized as critical infrastructure in the Portland Metropolitan Area. Our investigation covers key factors that influence feasibility including 1) the geologic framework, 2) heat and fluid flow modeling, 3) capital and maintenance costs, 4) the regulatory framework, and 5) operational risks. By pairing a model of building seasonal heat demand with an integrated model of RTES resource supply, we determine that the most important factors that influence RTES efficacy in the study area are operational schedule, well spacing, the amount of summer heat stored (in our model, a function of solar array size), and longevity of the system. Generally, heat recovery efficiency increases as the reservoir and surrounding rocks warm, making RTES more economical with time. Selecting a base-case scenario, we estimate a levelized cost of heat (LCOH) to compare with other sources of heating available to OHSU and find that it is comparable to unsubsidized solar and nuclear, but more expensive than natural gas. Additional benefits of RTES include energy resiliency in the event that conventional energy supplies are disrupted (e.g., natural disaster) and a reduction in fossil fuel consumption resulting in a smaller carbon footprint. Key risks include reservoir heterogeneity and a possible reduction in permeability through time due to scaling (mineral precipitation). Lastly, a map of thermal energy storage capacity for the Portland Basin yields a total of 43,400 GWh, suggesting tremendous potential for RTES in the Portland Metropolitan Area.
The subsurface geology beneath the Pajarito Plateau is critical to understanding the seismic hazard of the Pajarito Fault System, yet our understanding of this geology is relatively poor. While previous 3D geologic framework models of the area have been created for the purposes of understanding hydrogeologic flow, they are inadequate for the purposes of understanding the Pajarito Fault System. The specific challenges of using oil and gas software for this purpose include: (1) the geologic complexities resulting from volcanism and tectonism; (2) a need for a high level of stratigraphic detail over a large area; (3) a near complete lack of seismic data; and (4) sparse wellbore data. Presented here is a workflow that handles these challenges of adapting commercially available software used by the oil and gas industries to this seismic hazard problem.
The San Juan Basin (SJB), located in southwestern Colorado northwestern New Mexico, containing Paleozoic through middle Cenozoic strata, formed as a partitioned basin approximately 80 Ma in response to the Laramide orogeny. The SJB is a commercially mature, petroleum-producing basin, and currently being explored for CCUS and geothermal resources. Modern heat flow within the SJB is spatially variable with higher geothermal gradients in its northern and eastern portions. The temporal history of the basin thermal history is essential for understanding capacity for carbon storage and geothermal exploration. We present thermochronometric analyses of two surface and two subsurface samples to constrain spatial-temporal thermal evolution of the northwestern San Juan Basin. Apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronometric analyses were conducted on Cliff House and Kirtland Formation outcrops and subsurface samples of the Ojo Alamo and Pictured Cliffs Formations from a DOE funded, CCUS project pilot-well. In addition, vitrinite reflectance data and 1D basin modelling constrain possible time-temperature pathways of the samples in an area where no previous studies have constrained the uplift/exhumation of the Hogback Monocline using thermochronometry. Modeling suggests that elevated subsurface temperatures developed simultaneously with regional late Oligiocene volcanism in the San Juan Volcanic field and timing of maximum burial in the SJB. Late Miocene to Pliocene cooling/exhumation through the apatite (U-Th)/He partial retention zone support stratigraphic evidence of the Colorado Plateau uplift, possibly regional epeirogenic uplift driven by mantle processes.
We perform two-dimensional (2D) site response analyses accounting for spatial variability of soil properties and subsurface geometry of the Eastern Snake River Plane (ESRP), and quantify their effects on ground surface motion relative to one-dimensional (1D) site response analyses at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). We first present the development of random field idealizations of the repeated basalt lava flows, heterogeneously inter-layered with sediments, from seismic velocity data collected over four decades in the ESRP. Using realizations of the stochastic fields mapped on 2D deterministic finite element models, we perform 2D viscoelastic and equivalent-linear wave propagation simulations, and quantify the mean and variance of site response aggravation factors, defined as the response spectral ratio of 2D to 1D analyses on the ground surface. Results are shown to be insensitive to the constitutive material behavior considered here, for strains induced by rock outcrop peak ground acceleration (PGA) as high as 0.7g: viscoelastic and equivalent-linear analyses predict peak mean 2D/1D aggravation factor 1.05 at period T=0.075 sec (i.e. the 2D response spectrum is 5% higher than the corresponding 1D at that period, on average), which corresponds to the wavelength of the horizontal correlation length of the random field (50m). For periods longer than the fundamental period of the site (here, T 1 =0.3125 sec), the propagating wavelengths are too long to be affected by the 1D site response and the aggravation factor becomes equal to 1. The standard deviation of the natural logarithms of the 2D/1D aggravation factors is ~0.15 for periods shorter than the fundamental period of the site, and decays thereafter at a steady rate.
Initial examination of the Magellan coverage of Venus has revealed between 150 and 300 large, radially lineated landforms distributed across the planet's surface. Where the lineaments have been examined in detail, the majority fail to exhibit signatures indicative of relief at or above the resolution of the radar; however, when the sense of topographic relief may be ascertained, the lineaments commonly appear as fissures or flat-floored trenches interpreted as graben. Individual lineaments can display graben, fissure, and zero relief behavior along their length, suggesting either that these differences are a function of the resolution of the radar, or that the morphological distinctions are real but somehow genetically linked. In many instances, radial lineaments exhibiting these characteristics are directly associated with surface volcanism, including flanking and terminal flows, superimposed shield domes and pit chains, and central, calderalike topographic lows. These observable characteristics, as well as theoretical studies and comparison with similar terrestrial features, have led to the working hypothesis that many of the radial fracture systems on Venus are the surface manifestation of subsurface dikes propagating laterally from a central magma source. If this interpretation is correct, studies of terrestrial dikes suggest that the lineament directions, with localized exceptions and barring subsequent deformation, should be perpendicular to the orientation of the least compressive stress at the time of their formation. To test this hypothesis, we briefly examine a radial fracture system (63.7 degrees N, 195 degrees E) located between two deformation belts in Vinmara Planitia, and verify that the lineaments to the east behave in the expected manner. We have also chosen this feature, however, because of its proximity to Lauma Dorsa to the west. On the basis of Venera 15/16 data, both compressional and extensional origins for this deformation belt have been proposed. By examining the stratigraphy and applying our interpretation that the fracture system is linked to the presence of subsurface dikes, we present an independent evaluation of the stress state associated with Lauma Dorsa, and thus contribute to the assessment of its origin.
Long-term seismic monitoring of carbon capture and storage projects is needed to verify that the injected gas is safely stored in the subsurface until permanence can be assured. Conventional surface seismic monitoring techniques are usually expensive, require highly invasive surface operations, and need significant time investments on the part of personnel for both the field effort and processing the acquired data. For these reasons, permanent reservoir monitoring technologies are preferred, as they can offer a cost-effective solution for long-term monitoring. As part of the monitoring program of the Archer Daniels Midland’s large-scale injection of CO 2 in Decatur, Illinois, USA, a continuous seismic monitoring array was installed using a combination of surface orbital vibrator (SOV) sources and fiber-optic cables for distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) acquisition with the objective to build a continuous monitoring array. The aim of the presented project was to build a monitoring array and platform that integrates real-time seismic data with conventional data streams and provides continuous data analysis using dynamic computational models to deliver a comprehensive real-time assessment of subsurface conditions. It is in this context that the Intelligent Monitoring Systems and Advanced Well Integrity and Mitigation project was proposed with the objective to develop an integrated architecture that utilizes a permanent seismic monitoring network, combines the real-time geophysical and process data with reservoir flow and geomechanical models to create a comprehensive monitoring, visualization, and control system that delivers critical information for process surveillance and optimization.
As continuing discoveries highlight the surprising abundance and resilience of deep ocean and subsurface microbial life, the effects of extreme hydrostatic pressure on biological structure and function have attracted renewed interest. Biological small-angle X-ray scattering (BioSAXS) is a widely used method of obtaining structural information from biomolecules in solution under a wide range of solution conditions. Due to its ability to reduce radiation damage, remove aggregates, and separate monodisperse components from complex mixtures, size-exclusion chromatography-coupled SAXS (SEC-SAXS) is now the dominant form of BioSAXS at many synchrotron beamlines. While BioSAXS can currently be performed with some difficulty under pressure with non-flowing samples, it has not been clear how, or even if, continuously flowing SEC-SAXS, with its fragile media-packed columns, might work in an extreme high-pressure environment. Here we show, for the first time, that reproducible chromatographic separations coupled directly to high-pressure BioSAXS can be achieved at pressures up to at least 100 MPa and that pressure-induced changes in folding and oligomeric state and other properties can be observed. Further, the apparatus described here functions at a range of temperatures (0°C–50°C), expanding opportunities for understanding biomolecular rules of life in deep ocean and subsurface environments.
The present computational study of transient heat transfer and fluid flow in a circular pool of n-decane which is undergoing central radiative heating from above gives attention to the volumetric absorption of the radiation incident on the pool surface. The first part of this study notes that buoyancy influences the number and recirculation rates of the subsurface vortices by stabilizing hot subsurface fluid above the colder core fluid; this affects the liquid surface temperature profile and in turn governs the velocity profile that is due to thermocapillarity. In the second part, the effects of gas-liquid phase coupling, variable density and thermophysical properties, and vaporization are considered.
Meter-scale MRO/HiRISE camera images of dune slipfaces in the north polar sand sea of Mars reveal the presence of deep alcoves above depositional fans. These features are apparently active under current climatic conditions, because they form between observations taken in subsequent Mars years. Recently, other workers have hypothesized that the alcoves form due to destabilization and mass-wasting during sublimation of CO2 frost in the spring. While there is evidence for springtime modification of these features, our analysis of early springtime images reveals that over 80% of the new alcoves are visible underneath the CO2 frost. Thus, we present an alternative hypothesis that formation of new alcoves and fans occurs prior to CO2 deposition. We propose that fans and alcoves form primarily by aeolian processes in the mid- to late summer, through a sequence of aeolian deposition on the slipface, over-steepening, failure, and dry granular flow. An aeolian origin is supported by the orientations of the alcoves, which are consistent with recent wind directions. Furthermore, morphologically similar but much smaller alcoves form on terrestrial dune slipfaces, and the size differences between the terrestrial and Martian features may reflect cohesion in the near-subsurface of the Martian features. The size and preservation of the largest alcoves on the Martian slipfaces also support the presence of an indurated surface layer; thus, new alcoves might be sites of early spring CO2 sublimation and secondary mass-wasting because they act as a window to looser, less indurated materials that warm up more quickly in the spring.
The present modification of the Ingersoll et al. (1985) hydrodynamic model of the SO2 gas sublimation-driven flow from the day to the night side of Io includes the effects of nonuniform surface properties noted in observational studies. Calculations are conducted for atmospheric pressures, horizontal winds, sublimation rates, and condensation rates for such surface conditions as patchy and continuous frost cover, volcanic venting, surface temperature discontinuities, subsurface cold trapping, and the propagation of insolation into the frost. While pressure is found to follow local vapor pressure away from the plumes, it becomes higher inside them.
Rampart craters seem to have been emplaced by flows around craters over the surface just after the impact event by melting of volatiles. Such rampart craters are considered to be good ground-ice indicators. A map shows a latitudinal distribution of Martian ground-ice with a deep ground-ice table at equatorial latitudes and subsurface ground-ice tables at mid and high latitudes. Some studies suggest the presence of large amounts of ground-ice on Mars, with near surface ground-ice in the northern plains and a permafrost at low latitudes containing a large amount of volatiles at depth. Spatial variations in the spin axis of the planet affect the latitudinal distribution of the Sun's isolation, and therefore the Martian ground-ice distribution.
Several advancements are necessary before humans can safely explore Mars. One emerging strategy is In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU): the process of extracting raw materials found onsite and converting them into usable products to ensure a constant flow of vital resources and greatly reduce overall mission cost. Scientists must confirm the presence and accessibility of these resources for future crewed missions. Our team investigated the feasibility of ISRU in NE Syrtis, a region of Mars with varied geology, mineralogy, and hydrological history. NE Syrtis has abundant subsurface water and a diverse suite of mineral deposits including olivine, phyllosilicates, sulfates, and carbonates–all of which can be leveraged for fuel, medical supplies, and/or construction materials. We conceptualized a joint rover and helicopter expedition to analyze and sample these minerals over a two-year primary mission using Java Mission-planning and Analysis for Remote Sensing (JMARS), Planetary Data Systems (PDS), and Computer-Aided Design (CAD). We plotted a strategic traverse to regions of interest identified from remote sensing data and planned operations at each target. Our mission aimed to prepare for human presence on Mars by demonstrating the utility and viability of ISRU-focused operations.
Gas samples taken from two historic underground nuclear tests done in 1989 at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), formerly the Nevada Test Site (NTS), were examined to determine how xenon isotopes fractionate because of early-time cavity processes, transport through the rock, or dispersal through tunnels. Xenon isotopes are currently being used to distinguish civilian sources of xenon in the atmosphere from sources associated with underground nuclear explosions (UNEs). The two nuclear tests included (1) BARNWELL, a test conducted in a vertical shaft approximately 600 m below ground surface at Pahute Mesa, and (2) DISKO ELM, a horizontal line-of-sight test done in P-tunnel approximately 261 m below the surface of Aqueduct Mesa. Numerical flow and transport models developed for the two sites had mixed success when attempting to match the observed xenon isotope ratios. At the BARNWELL site, the simulated xenon isotope ratios were consistent with measurements from the chimney and ground surface and appeared to have been affected primarily by fractionation during subsurface transport. At the DISKO ELM site, samples taken from two elevations in the chimney failed to show the degree of fractionation predicted by the models during transport and did not show evidence for significant fractionation due to early-time condensation of refractory xenon-precursor radionuclides into the melt glass. Gas samples taken from the adjacent tunnels in the days following the test showed mixed evidence for early-time separation of xenon isotopes from their iodine precursors.
Abstract In the coastal regions of the western United States, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are associated with the largest precipitation generating storms and contribute up to half of annual precipitation, but the impact of ARs on the integrated hydrologic cycle, specifically on groundwater storage and hydrodynamics, is largely unknown. To better explore the hydrologic behavior of AR versus non‐AR event precipitation, we present a novel combination of two water tracking methods (one in the atmosphere and one in the subsurface) to explicitly track the full lifecycle of water parcels generated by ARs. Simulations of northern California's Cosumnes River watershed during the record wet 2017 water year are performed via the coupling of a high‐resolution regional climate model and a land surface‐groundwater model accounting for lateral groundwater flow. Despite ARs contributing more precipitation than non‐AR storms, we find less AR water is preferentially stored in aquifers by year end. Fractionally, ARs result in 300% less snow derived groundwater‐recharged compared to non‐AR precipitation. Rain‐on‐snow (RoS) plays an important role in AR‐driven discharge, where over 50% of total discharge from ARs snow is from RoS events. Finally, despite record‐breaking annual precipitation, simulated groundwater depletion occurs by year end due to estimates of groundwater pumping activities. The results from these simulations serve as a partial analogue of future hydrologic conditions where ARs are expected to intensify and provide a greater fraction of annual precipitation due to climate change.
Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. Here, this study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-stepping grid were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a three-dimensional (3-D) trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.
Laser melting, such as that encountered during additive manufacturing, produces extreme gradients of temperature in both space and time, which in turn influence microstructural development in the material. Qualification and model validation of the process itself and the resulting material necessitate the ability to characterize these temperature fields. However, well established means to directly probe the material temperature below the surface of an alloy while it is being processed are limited. To address this gap in characterization capabilities, a novel means is presented to extract subsurface temperature-distribution metrics, with uncertainty, from in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction measurements to provide quantitative temperature evolution data during laser melting. Temperature-distribution metrics are determined using Gaussian process regression supervised machine-learning surrogate models trained with a combination of mechanistic modeling (heat transfer and fluid flow) and X-ray diffraction simulation. The trained surrogate model uncertainties are found to range from 5 to 15% depending on the metric and current temperature. The surrogate models are then applied to experimental data to extract temperature metrics from an Inconel 625 nickel superalloy wall specimen during laser melting. The maximum temperatures of the solid phase in the diffraction volume through melting and cooling are found to reach the solidus temperature as expected, with the mean and minimum temperatures found to be several hundred degrees less. The extracted temperature metrics near melting are determined to be more accurate because of the lower relative levels of mechanical elastic strains. However, uncertainties for temperature metrics during cooling are increased due to the effects of thermomechanical stress.