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At least 541 records · Page 30

Landmark Detection in Orbital Images Using Salience Histograms

NASA's planetary missions have collected, and continue to collect, massive volumes of orbital imagery. The volume is such that it is difficult to manually review all of the data and determine its significance. As a result, images are indexed and searchable by location and date but generally not by their content. A new automated method analyzes images and identifies "landmarks," or visually salient features such as gullies, craters, dust devil tracks, and the like. This technique uses a statistical measure of salience derived from information theory, so it is not associated with any specific landmark type. It identifies regions that are unusual or that stand out from their surroundings, so the resulting landmarks are context-sensitive areas that can be used to recognize the same area when it is encountered again. A machine learning classifier is used to identify the type of each discovered landmark. Using a specified window size, an intensity histogram is computed for each such window within the larger image (sliding the window across the image). Next, a salience map is computed that specifies, for each pixel, the salience of the window centered at that pixel. The salience map is thresholded to identify landmark contours (polygons) using the upper quartile of salience values. Descriptive attributes are extracted for each landmark polygon: size, perimeter, mean intensity, standard deviation of intensity, and shape features derived from an ellipse fit.

Wagstaff, Kiri L.↗

Kinetic-Scale Magnetic Turbulence and Finite Larmor Radius Effects at Mercury

We use a nonstationary generalization of the higher-order structure function technique to investigate statistical properties of the magnetic field fluctuations recorded by MESSENGER spacecraft during its first flyby (01/14/2008) through the near-Mercury space environment, with the emphasis on key boundary regions participating in the solar wind - magnetosphere interaction. Our analysis shows, for the first time, that kinetic-scale fluctuations play a significant role in the Mercury's magnetosphere up to the largest resolvable timescale (approx.20 s) imposed by the signal nonstationariry, suggesting that turbulence at this plane I is largely controlled by finite Larmor radius effects. In particular, we report the presence of a highly turbulent and extended foreshock system filled with packets of ULF oscillations, broad-band intermittent fluctuations in the magnetosheath, ion-kinetic turbulence in the central plasma sheet of Mercury's magnetotail, and kinetic-scale fluctuations in the inner current sheet encountered at the outbound (dawn-side) magnetopause. Overall, our measurements indicate that the Hermean magnetosphere, as well as the surrounding region, are strongly affected by non-MHD effects introduced by finite sizes of cyclotron orbits of the constituting ion species. Physical mechanisms of these effects and their potentially critical impact on the structure and dynamics of Mercury's magnetic field remain to be understood.

Uritsky, V. M.↗

Using a Support Vector Machine and a Land Surface Model to Estimate Large-Scale Passive Microwave Temperatures over Snow-Covered Land in North America

A support vector machine (SVM), a machine learning technique developed from statistical learning theory, is employed for the purpose of estimating passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperatures over snow-covered land in North America as observed by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) satellite sensor. The capability of the trained SVM is compared relative to the artificial neural network (ANN) estimates originally presented in [14]. The results suggest the SVM outperforms the ANN at 10.65 GHz, 18.7 GHz, and 36.5 GHz for both vertically and horizontally-polarized PMW radiation. When compared against daily AMSR-E measurements not used during the training procedure and subsequently averaged across the North American domain over the 9-year study period, the root mean squared error in the SVM output is 8 K or less while the anomaly correlation coefficient is 0.7 or greater. When compared relative to the results from the ANN at any of the six frequency and polarization combinations tested, the root mean squared error was reduced by more than 18 percent while the anomaly correlation coefficient was increased by more than 52 percent. Further, the temporal and spatial variability in the modeled brightness temperatures via the SVM more closely agrees with that found in the original AMSR-E measurements. These findings suggest the SVM is a superior alternative to the ANN for eventual use as a measurement operator within a data assimilation framework.

Modeling↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Modeled Electron Backstreaming Failure for the NEXT Ion Thruster

Excessive electron back streaming is one of the primary life-limiting failure modes for gridded ion thrusters. Physics-based modeling of the optics grid erosion and electron back streaming margins is augmented with statistical uncertainty quantification techniques to generate a life expectancy distribution of this particular failure mechanism for the NEXT ion thruster. Generation of distributions instead of a single point estimate provide a more comprehensive picture of thruster failure probabilities and life expectation for various mission applications.

Yim, John T.↗

Seasonal Glacier and Snow Loading in Svalbard Recovered from Geodetic Observations

We processed time series from seven Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations and one Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) station in Svalbard. The goal was to capture the seasonal vertical displacements caused by elastic response of variable mass load due to ice and snow accumulation. We found that estimates of the annual signal in different GNSS solutions disagree by more than 3 mm which makes geophysical interpretation of raw GNSS time series problematic. To overcome this problem, we have used an enhanced Common Mode (CM) filtering technique. The time series are differentiated by the time series from remote station BJOS with known mass loading signals removed a priori. Using this technique, we have achieved a substantial reduction of the differences between the GNSS solutions. We have computed mass loading time series from a regional Climatic Mass Balance (CMB) and snow model that provides the amount of water equivalent at a 1 km resolution with a time step of 7 days. We found that the entire vertical loading signal is present in data of two totally independent techniques at a statistically significant level of 95%. This allowed us to conclude that the remaining errors in vertical signal derived from the CMB model are less than 0.2 mm at that significance level. Refining the land water storage loading model with a CMB model resulted in a reduction of the annual amplitude from 2:1 mm to 1:1 mm in the CM filtered time series, while it had only a marginal impact on raw time series. This provides a strong evidence that CM filtering is essential for revealing local periodic signals when a millimetre level of accuracy is required.

H P Kierulf↗

Modeling the joint statistics of satellite path XPD and attenuation

A new and simple technique for estimating from attenuation statistics alone the joint distribution of attenuation and cross-polarization impairments on a satellite-to-earth radio path is presented. It compares measurements with predictions for the CTS spacecraft 11.7 GHz right-hand circularly polarized downlink during the first six months of 1979.

Gaines, J. M.↗

Computational techniques for the analysis of small signals in high-statistics neutrino oscillation experiments

The current and upcoming generation of Very Large Volume Neutrino Telescopes – collecting unprecedented quantities of neutrino events – can be used to explore subtle effects in oscillation physics, such as (but not restricted to) the neutrino mass ordering. The sensitivity of an experiment to these effects can be estimated from Monte Carlo simulations. With the high number of events that will be collected, there is a trade-off between the computational expense of running such simulations and the inherent statistical uncertainty in the determined values. In such a scenario, it becomes impractical to produce and use adequately-sized sets of simulated events with traditional methods, such as Monte Carlo weighting. In this work we present a staged approach to the generation of expected distributions of observables in order to overcome these challenges. By combining multiple integration and smoothing techniques which address limited statistics from simulation it arrives at reliable analysis results using modest computational resources.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Information and Statistics in Nuclear Experiment and Theory (ISNET)

As with all empirical sciences, nuclear physics operates in the virtuous cycle of the scientific method: observations inspire theoretical models; models lead to new predictions; predictions are tested in experiments; experiments lead to new observations; and so on. Evaluating what we are inferring, and how certain we are of it, is key to this process. These requirements, and a general interest in applying novel statistical, mathematical, and computational techniques, led to the formation of a dedicated research community entitled “Information and Statistics in Nuclear Experiment and Theory (ISNET)” (https://isnet-series.github.io/), which now includes more than 300 members. While the community’s interests lean toward nuclear theory, the unifying theme for this group is the inference of knowledge from data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Cellular-based preemption system

A cellular-based preemption system that uses existing cellular infrastructure to transmit preemption related data to allow safe passage of emergency vehicles through one or more intersections. A cellular unit in an emergency vehicle is used to generate position reports that are transmitted to the one or more intersections during an emergency response. Based on this position data, the one or more intersections calculate an estimated time of arrival (ETA) of the emergency vehicle, and transmit preemption commands to traffic signals at the intersections based on the calculated ETA. Additional techniques may be used for refining the position reports, ETA calculations, and the like. Such techniques include, without limitation, statistical preemption, map-matching, dead-reckoning, augmented navigation, and/or preemption optimization techniques, all of which are described in further detail in the above-referenced patent applications.

Bachelder, Aaron D.↗

Calibration and Commissioning of the LSST

Understanding the nature of dark energy and dark matter remains one of the fundamental questions in physics today; impacting our understanding of particle physics, cosmology, and possibly theories of gravity. Given the scale and complexity of the next generation of cosmology experiments (e.g., the Rubin Observatory, the Euclid satellite mission, and the Roman space telescope) we are entering an era where statistical noise no longer determines the accuracy to which we can measure cosmological parameters. Our ability to control and correct for systematics will ultimately determine the scientific impact of these experiments. This award addressed the challenge of how we determine what limits the accuracy of our cosmological measures, what techniques are appropriate for measuring and calibrating the properties of galaxies to best constrain cosmological models, how to develop statistical techniques that are insensitive to systematic errors, and how to optimize survey strategies in order to minimize systematics while maximizing the speed at which an experiment can achieve its science objectives. In this final technical report for award DE-SC0011635 we describe a set of open-source frameworks that simulate the characteristics and properties of current and planned cosmology surveys and the application of these frameworks to the development of new methodologies for estimating the properties and distances to galaxies that are robust to noisy and incomplete data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Adaptive statistical pattern classifiers for remotely sensed data

A technique for the adaptive estimation of nonstationary statistics necessary for Bayesian classification is developed. The basic approach to the adaptive estimation procedure consists of two steps: (1) an optimal stochastic approximation of the parameters of interest and (2) a projection of the parameters in time or position. A divergence criterion is developed to monitor algorithm performance. Comparative results of adaptive and nonadaptive classifier tests are presented for simulated four dimensional spectral scan data.

Gonzalez, R. C.↗

Statistical assessment of a unique time series analysis technique

Empirical tests of a particular least squares multiple prediction program were studied, as well as the relationship of this particular program to general least squares multiple prediction theory. Empirical evaluation and test of the program involved: (1) conversion of the program to run on an IBM 360/44 with replication of test results obtained on a Univac 1108; and (2) generation and analysis of Monte Carlo simulated data with the objective of comparison against results theoretically obtainable from spectrum analysis routines.

Benignus, V. A.↗

Analysis techniques for two-dimensional infrared data

In order to evaluate infrared detection and remote sensing systems, it is necessary to know the characteristics of the observational environment. For both scanning and staring sensors, the spatial characteristics of the background may be more of a limitation to the performance of a remote sensor than system noise. This limitation is the so-called spatial clutter limit and may be important for systems design of many earth application and surveillance sensors. The data used in this study is two dimensional radiometric data obtained as part of the continuing NASA remote sensing programs. Typical data sources are the Landsat multi-spectral scanner (1.1 micrometers), the airborne heat capacity mapping radiometer (10.5 - 12.5 micrometers) and various infrared data sets acquired by low altitude aircraft. Techniques used for the statistical analysis of one dimensional infrared data, such as power spectral density (PSD), exceedance statistics, etc. are investigated for two dimensional applicability. Also treated are two dimensional extensions of these techniques (2D PSD, etc.), and special techniques developed for the analysis of 2D data.

Winter, E. M.↗

Parameter estimation techniques based on optimizing goodness-of-fit statistics for structural reliability

New methods are presented that utilize the optimization of goodness-of-fit statistics in order to estimate Weibull parameters from failure data. It is assumed that the underlying population is characterized by a three-parameter Weibull distribution. Goodness-of-fit tests are based on the empirical distribution function (EDF). The EDF is a step function, calculated using failure data, and represents an approximation of the cumulative distribution function for the underlying population. Statistics (such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and the Anderson-Darling statistic) measure the discrepancy between the EDF and the cumulative distribution function (CDF). These statistics are minimized with respect to the three Weibull parameters. Due to nonlinearities encountered in the minimization process, Powell's numerical optimization procedure is applied to obtain the optimum value of the EDF. Numerical examples show the applicability of these new estimation methods. The results are compared to the estimates obtained with Cooper's nonlinear regression algorithm.

Starlinger, Alois↗

A technique for generating correlated X-band weather degradation statistics

It is, known that the X-band noise temperature of DSN receivers can go up from 20 K to over 100 K or more, if the air is heavily laden with water vapor, although that is an uncommon occurrence. It is proposed that the DSN furnish flight projects relying on X-band degradation models, one for each DSN Complex. Such models would be in the form of a random process generator, say in an MBASIC program, that would permit the project to generate X-band degradation data with the right autocorrelations for periods of interest to the Projects. The autocorrelation modeling is especially important because bursts of degradation lasting several days can affect data storage and mission sequence design strategy. One approach which works if the degradation statistics obey a half-gaussian law. That is, the random variables are formed by taking the absolute values of another set of random variables, themselves having a Gaussian distribution. The technique then permits the half-gaussian random variables to have given one and two-step correlation coefficients.

Posner, E. C.↗

Quantifying High Temperature Corrosion

Alloys designed for high temperature service can form a variety of surface oxides or scales based on the alloy composition, service temperature, gas environment, surface deposits, etc. The most severe environments, including molten salts and liquid metals can result in significant metal loss, void formation and/or pitting. Standard and evolving practices are discussed for measuring these types of degradationincluding measuring oxide scale thickness, internal oxidation and/or metal loss, correlating them to mass change and reporting the results. Manual and automated methodologies to measure oxide thickness and metal loss are reviewed and compared in order to provide a summary of techniques and identify the best practices for quantifying a variety of materials and damage mechanisms and producing statistically meaningful results. Such techniques create datasets useful for improved understanding of corrosion degradation mechanisms, potentially better predictive models and enhanced data analytics.

Su, Yi Feng↗

Statistical Symbolic Execution with Informed Sampling

Symbolic execution techniques have been proposed recently for the probabilistic analysis of programs. These techniques seek to quantify the likelihood of reaching program events of interest, e.g., assert violations. They have many promising applications but have scalability issues due to high computational demand. To address this challenge, we propose a statistical symbolic execution technique that performs Monte Carlo sampling of the symbolic program paths and uses the obtained information for Bayesian estimation and hypothesis testing with respect to the probability of reaching the target events. To speed up the convergence of the statistical analysis, we propose Informed Sampling, an iterative symbolic execution that first explores the paths that have high statistical significance, prunes them from the state space and guides the execution towards less likely paths. The technique combines Bayesian estimation with a partial exact analysis for the pruned paths leading to provably improved convergence of the statistical analysis. We have implemented statistical symbolic execution with in- formed sampling in the Symbolic PathFinder tool. We show experimentally that the informed sampling obtains more precise results and converges faster than a purely statistical analysis and may also be more efficient than an exact symbolic analysis. When the latter does not terminate symbolic execution with informed sampling can give meaningful results under the same time and memory limits.

Reliability↗