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At least 541 records · Page 30

Ectomycorrhizal Community Structure and Soil Characteristics of Mature Lodgepole Pine (Pinus Contorta) and Adjacent Stands of Old Growth Mixed Conifer in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming USA

Forest development patterns following disturbance are known to influence the physical and chemical attributes of soils at different points in time. Changes in soil resources are thought to have a corresponding effect on ectomycorrhizal (ECM) community structure. We used molecular methods to compare below-ground ECM species richness, composition, and abundance between adjacent stands of homogenous lodgepole pine and old growth mixed conifer in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). In each stand-type we collected soil cores to both identify mycorrhizae and assess soil chemistry. Although no statistical difference was observed in the mean number of ECM root tips per core between stand types, the total number of species identified (85 versus 35) and the mean number of species per core (8.8 +/- 0.6 versus 2.5 +/- 0.3) were significantly higher in lodgepole pine. Differences between the actual and estimated species richness levels indicated that these forest types support a high number of ECM species and that undersampling was severe. Species compositions were widely disparate between stands where only four species were shared out of a total of 116. Soil analysis also revealed that mixed conifer was significantly lower in pH, but higher in organic matter, potassium, phosphorus, and ammonium when compared to lodgepole pine stands. Species richness per core was correlated with these chemical data, however, analysis of covariance indicated that stand type was the only statistically significant factor in the observed difference in species richness. Our data suggest that ECM fungal richness increases as homogenous lodgepole pine stands grow and mature, but declines after Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir colonize. Despite difficulties linking species composition with soil chemistry, there are a variety of physical and chemical factors that could be influencing ECM community structure. Future field experiments are necessary to test some of the mechanisms potentially operating within this system.

Douglas, Robert B.↗

Statistical characterization of sea surface geometry for a wave slope field discontinuous in the mean square

Statistics of two-dimensional wave groups, of steep wave events, and of a cascade pattern manifested in the surface geometry in a developed sea state are derived. A systematic view is presented of the spectral moment problem, highlighting its physical meaning and showing its relationship with the theory of random fields. A solution of this problem is suggested that is appropriate to the case of wind-generated surface waves. The solution method treats the surface elevation field as specified on a spatial (temporal) running grid, developing an averaging procedure which employs the Taylor microscale as the mesh size. The technique is illustrated by first exposing errors in direct calculations of the effective surface impedance for a coherently reflected L-band radio wave. The technique is then used to study wave groups and steep waves for a Gaussian, two-dimensional, time-varying surface. Finally, the theory is applied to estimate breaking wave statistics,

Glazman, R. E.↗

Departures from LTE Populations Versus Anomalous Abundances: the Effects of Heating

The deposit of nonradiative heat and momentum in the mantle of a hot star affects the interpretation of the stellar spectrum in two ways. First, a superheated and moving plasma should be considered when doing the analysis, and second, a model atom which is appropriate for the physical state of the line forming regions. Some examples are presented for H and He showing how the changes in the electron temperature affect the solution of the equations of statistical equilibrium. The observed spectra of the Wolf-Raynet stars HD 191765, HD 192103, and HD 192163 are compatible with a normal H/He abundance ratio.

Underhill, A. B.↗

Baseline Assessment and Prioritization Framework for IVHM Integrity Assurance Enabling Capabilities

Fundamental to vehicle health management is the deployment of systems incorporating advanced technologies for predicting and detecting anomalous conditions in highly complex and integrated environments. Integrated structural integrity health monitoring, statistical algorithms for detection, estimation, prediction, and fusion, and diagnosis supporting adaptive control are examples of advanced technologies that present considerable verification and validation challenges. These systems necessitate interactions between physical and software-based systems that are highly networked with sensing and actuation subsystems, and incorporate technologies that are, in many respects, different from those employed in civil aviation today. A formidable barrier to deploying these advanced technologies in civil aviation is the lack of enabling verification and validation tools, methods, and technologies. The development of new verification and validation capabilities will not only enable the fielding of advanced vehicle health management systems, but will also provide new assurance capabilities for verification and validation of current generation aviation software which has been implicated in anomalous in-flight behavior. This paper describes the research focused on enabling capabilities for verification and validation underway within NASA s Integrated Vehicle Health Management project, discusses the state of the art of these capabilities, and includes a framework for prioritizing activities.

Cooper, Eric G.↗

NASA Global Precipitation Mission Ground Validation Implementation

The Global Precipitation Mission (GPM; core-satellite launch 2013) will provide Ka/Ku-band dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) and accompanying passive microwave radiometer-diagnosed precipitation estimates over a latitude range of 65 N to 65 S. The extended latitudinal domain of GPM coverage combined with requirements to detect (and in the case of liquid, estimate) liquid and frozen precipitation rates for values ranging from several hundred to just a few tenths of a millimeter per hour present new challenges to the development of physically-based satellite precipitation retrieval algorithms. On regional scales select national and international resources such as existing calibrated radar and rain gauge networks can provide basic datasets that enable direct statistical validation of GPM core-satellite reflectivitys and core/constellation rain rate measurements. Near-term planned field campaign involvements include Finland/Baltic Sea (fall 2010; joint CloudSat,GPM, and European study of precipitation in low-altitude melting layers and snowfall in the vicinity of the Helsinki testbed), central Oklahoma (spring 2011; joint with DOE ARM- precipitation retrievals over a mid-latitude continental land surface), and the Great Lakes region (winter 2011-12, snowfall retrieval).

Petersen, Walter A.↗

The GMAO ADVAR System: Preliminary Results

The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-S) Data Assimilation System is now configurable to run strong constraint 4DVAR. The system combines the 4DVAR-capable Grid-point Statistical Interpolation analysis with the GEOS-S general circulation model and an early version of the tangent linear and adjoint models of the finite-volume hydrodynamics with simplified physics. The GMAO 4DVAR uses a Lanczos-based conjugate gradient algorithm in a nested resolution inner-loop setting. A range of tests and experiments will have been carried out by the time of the Symposium. Results on balance-related issues, resolution configuration, and choice of assimilation time window will be shown. A comparison with the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) 3DVAR and a discussion of future directions of development will also be presented.

Todling, Ricardo↗

On the Phase-Averaged Spectrum of Pulsars and Shape of Their Cutoffs

All gamma ray pulsars exhibit an exponential cutoff in their spectra and for bright pulsars the statistics are sufficiently high to study the detailed shape of the cutoff. The phase averaged spectra of some pulsars exhibit a sub-exponential cutoff, not predicted by any single physical mechanism. Further studies clarified that (his gentler average cutoff is a consequence of having significant variations of the cutoff energy in the phase-resolved spectrum. In conclusion, the phase-averaged spectrum of a pulsar is not a physical quantity to test high-energy emission models.

Celik, O.↗

Modeling the Uncertainties of Solar System Ephemerides for Robust Gravitational-wave Searches with Pular-timing Arrays

The regularity of pulsar emissions becomes apparent once we reference the pulses’ times of arrivals to the inertial rest frame of the solar system. It follows that errors in the determination of Earthʼs position with respect to the solar system barycenter can appear as a time-correlated bias in pulsar-timing residual time series, affecting the searches for low-frequency gravitational waves performed with pulsar-timing arrays. Indeed, recent array data sets yield different gravitational-wave background upper limits and detection statistics when analyzed with different solar system ephemerides. Crucially, the ephemerides do not generally provide usable error representations. In this article, we describe the motivation, construction, and application of a physical model of solar system ephemeris uncertainties, which focuses on the degrees of freedom (Jupiterʼs orbital elements) most relevant to gravitational-wave searches with pulsar-timing arrays. This model, BAYESEPHEM, was used to derive ephemeris-robust results in NANOGravʼs 11 yr stochastic-background search, and it provides a foundation for future searches by NANOGrav and other consortia. The analysis and simulations reported here suggest that ephemeris modeling reduces the gravitational-wave sensitivity of the 11 yr data set and that this degeneracy will vanish with improved ephemerides and with pulsar-timing data sets that extend well beyond a single Jovian orbital period.

M Vallisneri↗

Fluid Physics in a Fluctuating Acceleration Environment

Our program of research aims at developing a stochastic description of the residual acceleration field onboard spacecraft (g-jitter) to describe in quantitative detail its effect on fluid motion. Our main premise is that such a statistical description is necessary in those cases in which the characteristic time scales of the process under investigation are long compared with the correlation time of g-jitter. Although a clear separation between time scales makes this approach feasible, there remain several difficulties of practical nature: (i), g-jitter time series are not statistically stationary but rather show definite dependences on factors such as active or rest crew periods; (ii), it is very difficult to extract reliably the low frequency range of the power spectrum of the acceleration field. This range controls the magnitude of diffusive processes; and (iii), models used to date are Gaussian, but there is evidence that large amplitude disturbances occur much more frequently than a Gaussian distribution would predict. The lack of stationarity does not constitute a severe limitation in practice, since the intensity of the stochastic components changes very slowly during space missions (perhaps over times of the order of hours). A separate analysis of large amplitude disturbances has not been undertaken yet, but it does not seem difficult a priori to devise models that may describe this range better than a Gaussian distribution. The effect of low frequency components, on the other hand, is more difficult to ascertain, partly due to the difficulty associated with measuring them, and partly because they may be indistinguishable from slowly changing averages. This latter effect is further complicated by the lack of statistical stationarity of the time series. Recent work has focused on the effect of stochastic modulation on the onset of oscillatory instabilities as an example of resonant interaction between the driving acceleration and normal modes of the system, and on cavity flow as an example of how an oscillatory response under periodic driving becomes diffusive if the forcing is random instead. This paper describes three different topics that illustrate behavior that is peculiar to a stochastic acceleration field. In the first case, we show that g-jitter can induce effective attractive or repulsive forces between a pair of spherical particles that are suspended in an incompressible fluid of different density provided that the momentum diffusion length is larger than the interparticle separation (as in the case in most colloidal suspensions). Second, a stochastic modulation of the control parameter in the vicinity of a pitchfork or supercritical bifurcation is known not to affect the location of the threshold. We show, however, that resonance between the modulation and linearly stable modes close to onset can lead to a shift in threshold. Finally, we discuss the classical problem of vorticity diffusion away from a plane boundary that is being vibrated along its own plane. Periodic motion with zero average vorticity production results in an exponential decay of the vorticity away from the boundary. Random vibration, on the other hand, results in power law decay away from the boundary even if vorticity production averages to zero.

Drolet, Francois↗

Hidden Statistics Approach to Quantum Simulations

Recent advances in quantum information theory have inspired an explosion of interest in new quantum algorithms for solving hard computational (quantum and non-quantum) problems. The basic principle of quantum computation is that the quantum properties can be used to represent structure data, and that quantum mechanisms can be devised and built to perform operations with this data. Three basic non-classical properties of quantum mechanics superposition, entanglement, and direct-product decomposability were main reasons for optimism about capabilities of quantum computers that promised simultaneous processing of large massifs of highly correlated data. Unfortunately, these advantages of quantum mechanics came with a high price. One major problem is keeping the components of the computer in a coherent state, as the slightest interaction with the external world would cause the system to decohere. That is why the hardware implementation of a quantum computer is still unsolved. The basic idea of this work is to create a new kind of dynamical system that would preserve the main three properties of quantum physics superposition, entanglement, and direct-product decomposability while allowing one to measure its state variables using classical methods. In other words, such a system would reinforce the advantages and minimize limitations of both quantum and classical aspects. Based upon a concept of hidden statistics, a new kind of dynamical system for simulation of Schroedinger equation is proposed. The system represents a modified Madelung version of Schroedinger equation. It preserves superposition, entanglement, and direct-product decomposability while allowing one to measure its state variables using classical methods. Such an optimal combination of characteristics is a perfect match for simulating quantum systems. The model includes a transitional component of quantum potential (that has been overlooked in previous treatment of the Madelung equation). The role of the transitional potential is to provide a jump from a deterministic state to a random state with prescribed probability density. This jump is triggered by blowup instability due to violation of Lipschitz condition generated by the quantum potential. As a result, the dynamics attains quantum properties on a classical scale. The model can be implemented physically as an analog VLSI-based (very-large-scale integration-based) computer, or numerically on a digital computer. This work opens a way of developing fundamentally new algorithms for quantum simulations of exponentially complex problems that expand NASA capabilities in conducting space activities. It has been illustrated that the complexity of simulations of particle interaction can be reduced from an exponential one to a polynomial one.

Zak, Michail↗

Turbulent solutions of the equations of fluid motion

Some turbulent solutions of the unaveraged Navier-Stokes equations (equations of fluid motion) are reviewed. Those equations are solved numerically in order to study the nonlinear physics of incompressible turbulent flow. Initial three-dimensional cosine velocity fluctuations and periodic boundary conditions are used in most of the work considered. The three components of the mean-square velocity fluctuations are initially equal for the conditions chosen. The resulting solutions show characteristics of turbulence such as the linear and nonlinear excitation of small-scale fluctuations. For the stronger fluctuations, the initially nonrandom flow develops into an apparently random turbulence. Thus randomness or turbulence can arise as a consequence of the structure of the Navier-Stokes equations. The cases considered include turbulence which is statistically homogeneous or inhomogeneous and isotropic or anisotropic. A mean shear is present in some cases. A statistically steady-state turbulence is obtained by using a spatially periodic body force. Various turbulence processes, including the transfer of energy between eddy sizes and between directional components, and the production, dissipation, and spatial diffusion of turbulence, are considered. It is concluded that the physical processes occurring in turbulence can be profitably studied numerically.

Deissler, R. G.↗

Image-Based Empirical Modeling of the Plasmasphere

A new suite of empirical models of plasmaspheric plasma based on remote, global images from the IMAGE EUV instrument is proposed for development. The purpose of these empirical models is to establish the statistical properties of the plasmasphere as a function of conditions. This suite of models will mark the first time the plasmaspheric plume is included in an empirical model. Development of these empirical plasmaspheric models will support synoptic studies (such as for wave propagation and growth, energetic particle loss through collisions and dust transport as influenced by charging) and serves as a benchmark against which physical models can be tested. The ability to know that a specific global density distribution occurs in response to specific magnetospheric and solar wind factors is a huge advantage over all previous in-situ based empirical models. The consequence of creating these new plasmaspheric models will be to provide much higher fidelity and much richer quantitative descriptions of the statistical properties of plasmaspheric plasma in the inner magnetosphere, whether that plasma is in the main body of the plasmasphere, nearby during recovery or in the plasmaspheric plume. Model products to be presented include statistical probabilities for being in the plasmasphere, near thermal He+ density boundaries and the complexity of its spatial structure.

Adrian, Mark L.↗

Post-flight BET products for the 2nd discovery entry, STS-19 (51-A)

The post-flight products for the second Discovery flight, STS-19 (51-A), are summarized. The inertial best estimate trajectory (BET), BT19D19/UN=169750N, was developed using spacecraft dynamic measurements from Inertial Measurement Unit 2 (IMU2) in conjunction with the best tracking coverage available for any of the earlier Shuttle entries. As a consequence of the latter, an anchor epoch was selected which conforms to an initial altitude of greater than a million feet. The Extended BET, ST19BET/UN=274885C, incorporated the previously mentioned inertial reconstructed state information and the Langley Atmospheric Information Retrieval System (LAIRS) atmosphere, ST19MET/UN=712662N, with some minor exceptions. Primary and back-up AEROBET reels are NK0165 and NK0201, respectively. This product was only developed over the lowermost 360 kft altitude range due to atmosphere problems but this relates to altitudes well above meaningful signal in the IMUs. Summary results generated from the AEROBET for this flight are presented with meaningful configuration and statistical comparisons from the previous thirteen flights. Modified maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) files were generated based on IMU2 and the Rate Gyro Assembly/Accelerometer Assembly (RGA/AA), respectively. Appendices attached define spacecraft and physical constants utilized, show plots of the final tracking data residuals from the post-flight fit, list relevant parameters from the BET at a two second spacing, and retain for archival purpose all relevant input and output tapes and files generated.

Kelly, G. M.↗

Evolution of the luminosity function of extragalactic objects

A nonparametric procedure for determining the evolution of the luminosity function (LF) of extragalactic objects is described. The following steps are required: (1) selection of complete samples with known observational selection effects, (2) choice of a cosmological model, (3) statistical analysis of the sample and determination of the evolution of the luminosity function, and (4) the use of the luminosity function for the determination of the formation rate and the physical evolution of the objects. When the present technique is applied to a sample of optically selected quasars with redshifts less than two, it is shown that the LF evolves more strongly for higher luminosities, indicating a larger quasar activity at earlier epochs and a more rapid evolution of the objects during their higher luminosity phases.

Petrosian, V.↗

An improved approach for flight readiness assessment

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk for a spaceflight system in order to assess flight readiness is presented. This methodology is of particular value when information relevant to failure prediction, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is limited. In this approach, engineering analysis models that characterize specific failure modes based on the physics and mechanics of the failure phenomena are used in a prescribed probabilistic structure to generate a failure probability distribution that is modified by test and flight experience in a Bayesian statistical procedure. The probabilistic structure and statistical methodology are generally applicable to any failure mode for which quantitative engineering analysis can be employed to characterize the failure phenomenon and are particularly well suited for use under the constraints on information availability that are typical of such spaceflight systems as the Space Shuttle and planetary spacecraft.

Moore, N. R.↗

Monitoring issues from a modeling perspective

Recognition that earth's climate and biogeophysical conditions are likely changing due to human activities has led to a heightened awareness of the need for improved long-term global monitoring. The present long-term measurement efforts tend to be spotty in space, inadequately calibrated in time, and internally inconsistent with respect to other instruments and measured quantities. In some cases, such as most of the biosphere, most chemicals, and much of the ocean, even a minimal monitoring program is not available. Recently, it has become painfully evident that emerging global change issues demand information and insights that the present global monitoring system simply cannot supply. This is because a monitoring system must provide much more than a statement of change at a given level of statistical confidence. It must describe changes in diverse parts of the entire earth system on regional to global scales. It must be able to provide enough input to allow an integrated physical characterization of the changes that have occurred. Finally, it must allow a separation of the observed changes into their natural and anthropogenic parts. The enormous policy significance of global change virtually guarantees an unprecedented level of scrutiny of the changes in the earth system and why they are happening. These pressures create a number of emerging challenges and opportunities. For example, they will require a growing partnership between the observational programs and the theory/modeling community. Without this partnership, the scientific community will likely fall short in the monitoring effort. The monitoring challenge before us is not to solve the problem now, but rather to set appropriate actions in motion so as to create the required framework for solution. Each individual piece needs to establish its role in the large problem and how the required interactions are to take place. Below, we emphasize some of the needs and opportunities that could and should be addressed through participation by the theoreticians and modelers in the global change monitoring effort.

Mahlman, Jerry D.↗

LWS Proposal to Provide Scientific Guidance and Modeling Support for the Ionospheric Mapping Mission

A data assimilation system for specifying the thermospheric density has been developed over the last several years. This system ingests GRACE/CHAMP-type in situ as well as SSULI/SSUSI remote sensing observations while making use of a physical model, the Coupled Thermosphere-Ionosphere Model (CTIM) (Fuller-Rowel1 et al., 1996). The Kalman filter was implemented as the backbone to the data assimilation system, which provides a statistically 'best' estimate as well as an estimate of the error in its state. The system was tested using a simulated thermosphere and observations. CHAMP data were then used to provide the system with a real data source. The results of this study are herein.

Richmond, Arthur D.↗

Thoughts Without Content are Empty, Intuitions Without Concepts are Blind - Determinism and Contingency Revisited

Was the emergence of life a predictable outcome of chemical evolution on earth? Could evolution produce life very different from ours? These are one of the oldest questions in the field of the origin of life that not only have broad philosophical implications but also impact how we approach the problem from the methodological standpoint. Framing the issue in terms of the dichotomy between contingency and determinism is not a fortunate because these two terms in their conventional meaning are neither mutually exclusive nor jointly exhaustive. Determinism, represented in natural sciences by Newtonian physics, relies on the assumption that every event is causally determined by a chain of previous events. In the context of the origin of life it means that once the initial conditions on the early earth have been specified further evolution follows inevitably. Considering uncertainties about conditions on the prebiotic earth, many plausible sets of initial conditions can be defined, each followed by a separate deterministic trajectory. This conventional understanding of determinism does not admit contingency. Further, it has no implications for evaluating how many sets of initial conditions lead to the emergence of life. It appears that a better framing of the problem is as follows: given plausible sets of initial conditions on the early earth how probable and broadly spread are evolutionary trajectories that lead to life? Instead of undertaking an impossible task of specifying microscopic initial conditions for all components of the system one uses a reduced representation of this system and specify only a small set of essential macroscopic parameters, values (or ranges of values) of which can be identified, inferred or estimated from experiment, theory or historical record. The following evolutionary trajectories are still governed by laws of physics and chemistry but become probabilistic and "contingency" is admitted as variations in other variables in the system. A similar reasoning is common in other fields of science, for example in statistical mechanics. Some trajectories lead to life, perhaps in different forms, whereas others do not. Of our true interest is the ratio of these two outcomes. The issue of determinism does not directly enter the picture. The debate about the likelihood of the emergence of life is quite old. One view holds that the origin of life is an event governed by chance, and the result of so many random events (contingencies) is unpredictable. This view was eloquently expressed by Monod. In his book "Chance or Necessity" he argued that life was a product of "nature's roulette." In an alternative view, expressed in particular by deDuve and Morowitz, the origin of life is considered a highly probable or even inevitable event (although its details need not be determined in every respect). Only in this sense the origin of life can be considered a "deterministic event".

Pohorille, Andrew↗