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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1999

Improved Modeling in a Matlab-Based Navigation System

An innovative approach to autonomous navigation is available for low earth orbit satellites. The system is developed in Matlab and utilizes an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to estimate the attitude and trajectory based on spacecraft magnetometer and gyro data. Preliminary tests of the system with real spacecraft data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer Satellite (RXTE) indicate the existence of unmodeled errors in the magnetometer data. Incorporating into the EKF a statistical model that describes the colored component of the effective measurement of the magnetic field vector could improve the accuracy of the trajectory and attitude estimates and also improve the convergence time. This model is identified as a first order Markov process. With the addition of the model, the EKF attempts to identify the non-white components of the noise allowing for more accurate estimation of the original state vector, i.e. the orbital elements and the attitude. Working in Matlab allows for easy incorporation of new models into the EKF and the resulting navigation system is generic and can easily be applied to future missions resulting in an alternative in onboard or ground-based navigation.

Deutschmann, Julie↗
DOE OSTI2021

Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections

Crop yields are sensitive to extreme weather events. Improving the understanding of the mechanisms and the drivers of the projection uncertainties can help to improve decisions. Previous studies have provided important insights, but often sample only a small subset of potentially important uncertainties. Here we expand on a previous statistical modeling approach by refining the analyses of two uncertainty sources. Specifically, we assess the effects of uncertainties surrounding crop-yield model parameters and climate forcings on projected crop yield. We focus on maize yield projections in the eastern U.S.in this century. We quantify how considering more uncertainties expands the lower tail of yield projections. We characterized the relative importance of each uncertainty source and show that the uncertainty surrounding yield model parameters is the main driver of yield projection uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

Lithium-Ion Batteries Being Evaluated for Low-Earth-Orbit Applications

The performance characteristics and long-term cycle life of aerospace lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries in low-Earth-orbit applications are being investigated. A statistically designed test using Li-ion cells from various manufacturers began in September 2004 to study the effects of temperature, end-of-charge voltage, and depth-of-discharge operating conditions on the cycle life and performance of these cells. Performance degradation with cycling is being evaluated, and performance characteristics and failure modes are being modeled statistically. As technology improvements are incorporated into aerospace Li-ion cells, these new designs can be added to the test to evaluate the effect of the design changes on performance and life. Cells from Lithion and Saft have achieved over 2000 cycles under 10 different test condition combinations and are being evaluated. Cells from Mine Safety Appliances (MSA) and modules made up of commercial-off-the-shelf 18650 Li-ion cells connected in series/parallel combinations are scheduled to be added in the summer of 2005. The test conditions include temperatures of 10, 20, and 30 C, end-of-charge voltages of 3.85, 3.95, and 4.05 V, and depth-of-discharges from 20 to 40 percent. The low-Earth-orbit regime consists of a 55 min charge, at a constant-current rate that is 110 percent of the current required to fully recharge the cells in 55 min until the charge voltage limit is reached, and then at a constant voltage for the remaining charge time. Cells are discharged for 35 min at the current required for their particular depth-of-discharge condition. Cells are being evaluated in four-cell series strings with charge voltage limits being applied to individual cells by the use of charge-control units designed and produced at the NASA Glenn Research Center. These charge-control units clamp the individual cell voltages as each cell reaches its end-of-charge voltage limit, and they bypass the excess current from that cell, while allowing the full current flow to the remaining cells in the pack. The goal of this evaluation is to identify conditions and cell designs for Li-ion technology that can achieve more than 30,000 low-Earth-orbit cycles. Testing is being performed at the Naval Surface Warfare Center, Crane Division, in Crane, Indiana.

McKissock, Barbara I.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Simultaneous detection and intensity estimation of an optical image

A statistical model for simultaneous detection and single parameter estimation of a stochastic signal against background noise is obtained. Two strategies, Bayes and maximum likelihood, are discussed. The detection of an optical point source imaged on a photosensitive surface and the estimation of its intensity based on such strategies are examined. An almost optimum estimate is also proposed and its statistical properties are studied.

Wang, L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

An Analytical Thermal Model for Autonomous Soaring Research

A viewgraph presentation describing an analytical thermal model used to enable research on autonomous soaring for a small UAV aircraft is given. The topics include: 1) Purpose; 2) Approach; 3) SURFRAD Data; 4) Convective Layer Thickness; 5) Surface Heat Budget; 6) Surface Virtual Potential Temperature Flux; 7) Convective Scaling Velocity; 8) Other Calculations; 9) Yearly trends; 10) Scale Factors; 11) Scale Factor Test Matrix; 12) Statistical Model; 13) Updraft Strength Calculation; 14) Updraft Diameter; 15) Updraft Shape; 16) Smoothed Updraft Shape; 17) Updraft Spacing; 18) Environment Sink; 19) Updraft Lifespan; 20) Autonomous Soaring Research; 21) Planned Flight Test; and 22) Mixing Ratio.

Allen, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2023

New 26 P( p, γ ) 27 S Thermonuclear Reaction Rate and Its Astrophysical Implications in the rp -process

Accurate nuclear reaction rates for 26 P(p, γ) 27 S are pivotal for a comprehensive understanding of the rp-process nucleosynthesis path in the region of proton-rich sulfur and phosphorus isotopes. However, large uncertainties still exist in the current rate of 26 P(p, γ) 27 S because of the lack of nuclear mass and energy level structure information for 27 S. We reevaluate this reaction rate using the experimentally constrained 27 S mass, together with the shell model predicted level structure. It is found that the 26 P(p, γ) 27 S reaction rate is dominated by a direct capture reaction mechanism despite the presence of three resonances at E = 1.104, 1.597, and 1.777 MeV above the proton threshold in 27 S. The new rate is overall smaller than the other previous rates from the Hauser–Feshbach statistical model by at least 1 order of magnitude in the temperature range of X-ray burst interest. In addition, we consistently update the photodisintegration rate using the new 27 S mass. The influence of new rates of forward and reverse reaction in the abundances of isotopes produced in the rp-process is explored by postprocessing nucleosynthesis calculations. The final abundance ratio of 27 S/ 26 P obtained using the new rates is only 10% of that from the old rate. The abundance flow calculations show that the reaction path 26 P(p, γ) 27 S(β + ,ν) 27 P is not as important as previously thought for producing 27 P. The adoption of the new reaction rates for 26 P(p, γ) 27 S only reduces the final production of aluminum by 7.1% and has no discernible impact on the yield of other elements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2014

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2000, now referred to as ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 micron through larger than 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through larger than 1 m in GEO are available. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours of data from existing sources and from new sources than past ORDEM versions. The object data range in size from 10 μm to larger than 1 m, and include in situ and remote measurements. The in situ data reveals material characteristics of small particles. Mass densities are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of 'high-density', represented by 7.9 g/cc, 'medium-density' represented by 2.8 g/cc and 'low-density' represented by 1.4 g/cc. Supporting models have also advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, mission related debris, and explosion and collision event fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific populations are added from sodium potassium droplet releases, recent major accidental and deliberate collisions, and known anomalous debris events. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions. Sample validation results with remote and in situ measurements are shown, and the consequences of including material density are discussed as it relates to heightened risks to crewed and robotic spacecraft

Krisko, P. H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Power Electronics Materials and Bonded Interfaces - Reliability and Lifetime

High temperature operation of wide bandgap devices continue to be a challenge for the power electronics packages. Thermal performance and reliability are important factors that determine the viability of a bonded interface for operation at high temperatures. In this presentation, we present the technical approach and key results from the research on sintered silver, transient liquid phase alloy, and polymeric materials. A lifetime prediction model that incorporates the thermomechanical behavior of sintered silver at 200C was developed. The copper-aluminum transient alloy completed 350 thermal cycles from -40C to 200C and little increase in the defect level was observed. In addition to material research, we initiated a time-series analysis on the scanning acoustic microscope images of eutectic solder to explore statistical forecasting methods and machine learning techniques. Initial results that report the accuracy of a few different statistical models are presented.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Research Needs for Trusted Analytics in National Security Settings

As artificial intelligence, machine learning, and statistical modeling methods become commonplace in national security applications, the drive to create trusted analytics becomes increasingly important. The goal of this report is to identify areas of research that can provide the foundational understanding and technical prerequisites for the development and deployment of trusted analytics in national security settings. Our review of the literature covered several disjoint research communities, including computer science, statistics, human factors, and several branches of psychology and cognitive science, which tend not to interact with one another or cite each other's literatures. As a result, there exists no agreed-upon theoretical framework for understanding how various factors influence trust and no well-established empirical paradigm for studying these effects. This report therefore takes three steps. First, we define several key terms in an effort to provide a unifying language for trusted analytics and to manage the scope of the problem. Second, we outline an empirical perspective that identifies key independent, moderating, and dependent variables in assessing trusted analytics. Though not a substitute for a theoretical framework, the empirical perspective does support research and development of trusted analytics in the national security domain. Finally, we discuss several research gaps relevant to developing trusted analytics for the national security mission space.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient method for estimation of fission fragment yields of $\textit{r}$-process nuclei

Background: More than half of all the elements heavier than iron are made by the rapid neutron capture process (or $\textit{r}$ process). For very-neutron-rich astrophysical conditions, such at those found in the tidal ejecta of neutron stars, nuclear fission determines the $\textit{r}$-process endpoint, and the fission-fragment yields shape the final abundances of 110 ≤ $\textit{A}$ ≤ 170 nuclei. The knowledge of fission-fragment yields of hundreds of nuclei inhabiting very-neutron-rich regions of the nuclear landscape is thus crucial for the modeling of heavy-element nucleosynthesis. Purpose: In this study, we propose a model for the fast calculation of fission-fragment yields based on the concept of shell-stabilized prefragments defined with help of the nucleonic localization functions. Methods: To generate realistic potential-energy surfaces and nucleonic localizations, we apply Skyrme density-functional theory. In this work, the distribution of the neck nucleons among the two prefragments is obtained by means of a statistical model. Results: We benchmark the method by studying the fission yields of 178 Pt, 240 Pu, 254 Cf, and 254,256,258 Fm and show that it satisfactorily explains the experimental data. We then make predictions for 254 Pu and 290 Fm as two representative cases of fissioning nuclei that are expected to significantly contribute during the $\textit{r}$-process nucleosynthesis occurring in neutron-star mergers. Conclusions: The proposed framework provides an efficient alternative to microscopic approaches based on the evolution of the system in a space of collective coordinates all the way to scission. It can be used to carry out global calculations of fission-fragment distributions across the $\textit{r}$-process region.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2005

An Ensemble Approach to Building Mercer Kernels with Prior Information

This paper presents a new methodology for automatic knowledge driven data mining based on the theory of Mercer Kernels, which are highly nonlinear symmetric positive definite mappings from the original image space to a very high, possibly dimensional feature space. we describe a new method called Mixture Density Mercer Kernels to learn kernel function directly from data, rather than using pre-defined kernels. These data adaptive kernels can encode prior knowledge in the kernel using a Bayesian formulation, thus allowing for physical information to be encoded in the model. Specifically, we demonstrate the use of the algorithm in situations with extremely small samples of data. We compare the results with existing algorithms on data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and demonstrate the method's superior performance against standard methods. The code for these experiments has been generated with the AUTOBAYES tool, which automatically generates efficient and documented C/C++ code from abstract statistical model specifications. The core of the system is a schema library which contains templates for learning and knowledge discovery algorithms like different versions of EM, or numeric optimization methods like conjugate gradient methods. The template instantiation is supported by symbolic-algebraic computations, which allows AUTOBAYES to find closed-form solutions and, where possible, to integrate them into the code.

Srivastava, Ashok N.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Assessment of Current Jet Noise Prediction Capabilities

An assessment was made of the capability of jet noise prediction codes over a broad range of jet flows, with the objective of quantifying current capabilities and identifying areas requiring future research investment. Three separate codes in NASA s possession, representative of two classes of jet noise prediction codes, were evaluated, one empirical and two statistical. The empirical code is the Stone Jet Noise Module (ST2JET) contained within the ANOPP aircraft noise prediction code. It is well documented, and represents the state of the art in semi-empirical acoustic prediction codes where virtual sources are attributed to various aspects of noise generation in each jet. These sources, in combination, predict the spectral directivity of a jet plume. A total of 258 jet noise cases were examined on the ST2JET code, each run requiring only fractions of a second to complete. Two statistical jet noise prediction codes were also evaluated, JeNo v1, and Jet3D. Fewer cases were run for the statistical prediction methods because they require substantially more resources, typically a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes solution of the jet, volume integration of the source statistical models over the entire plume, and a numerical solution of the governing propagation equation within the jet. In the evaluation process, substantial justification of experimental datasets used in the evaluations was made. In the end, none of the current codes can predict jet noise within experimental uncertainty. The empirical code came within 2dB on a 1/3 octave spectral basis for a wide range of flows. The statistical code Jet3D was within experimental uncertainty at broadside angles for hot supersonic jets, but errors in peak frequency and amplitude put it out of experimental uncertainty at cooler, lower speed conditions. Jet3D did not predict changes in directivity in the downstream angles. The statistical code JeNo,v1 was within experimental uncertainty predicting noise from cold subsonic jets at all angles, but did not predict changes with heating of the jet and did not account for directivity changes at supersonic conditions. Shortcomings addressed here give direction for future work relevant to the statistical-based prediction methods. A full report will be released as a chapter in a NASA publication assessing the state of the art in aircraft noise prediction.

Hunter, Craid A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Triphenylphosphine-Containing Polymers to Explore Design Principles for Protein-Mimetic Catalysts

Complex interactions between noncoordinating residues are significant yet commonly overlooked components of macromolecular catalyst function. While these interactions have been demonstrated to impact binding affinities and catalytic rates in metalloenzymes, the roles of similar structural elements in synthetic polymeric catalysts remain underexplored. Using a model Suzuki–Miyuara cross-coupling reaction, we performed a series of systematic studies to probe the interconnected effects of metal–ligand cross-links, electrostatic interactions, and local rigidity in polymer catalysts. To achieve this, a novel bifunctional triphenylphosphine acrylamide (BisTPPAm) monomer was synthesized and evaluated alongside an analogous monofunctional triphenylphosphine acrylamide (TPPAm). In model copolymer catalysts, increased initial reaction rates were observed for copolymers untethered by Pd complexation (BisTPPAm-containing) compared to Pd-cross-linked catalysts (TPPAm-containing). Further, incorporating local rigidity through secondary structure-like and electrostatic interactions revealed nonmonotonic relationships between composition and the reaction rate, demonstrating the potential for tunable behavior through secondary-sphere interactions. Lastly, through rigorous cheminformatics featurization strategies and statistical modeling, we quantitated relationships between chemical descriptors of the substrate and reaction conditions on catalytic performance. Collectively, these results provide insights into relationships among the composition, structure, and function of protein-mimetic catalytic copolymers.

Catalysts↗
NASA NTRS1994

Size effect in composite materials and structures: Basic concepts and design considerations

Composite materials display strength characteristics that are similar to those of brittle ceramics, whose strengths are known to decrease with increasing volume for a uniform state of stress (size effect) and also are dependent on stress distribution. These similarities raise the question of whether there is also a size effect in composite materials and structures. There is significant, but inconclusive experimental evidence for the existence of a size effect in composites. Macroscopic and micromechanical statistical models have been developed which predict a size effect and are in general agreement with experimental data. The existence of a significant size effect in composites would be of great importance. For example, it would mean that use of standard test coupons to establish design allowables for large structures could be very nonconservative. Further, it would be necessary to analyze the strength of large composite structures using statistical methods, as is done for ceramics.

Zweben, Carl↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Ecosystems

The combined effects of repeated fires, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire and not fire history. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells that represented potential territories because frequent fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities between states varied annually as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges, precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presenceabsence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the maximum fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Measuring territory quality states and environmental covariates each year combined with multistate modeling provided a useful empirical approach to quantify the effects of repeated fire in combinations with environmental variables on transition probabilities that drive management strategies and ecosystem change.

Breininger, David R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Partial Least Squares, Experimental Design, and Near-Infrared Spectrophotometry for the Remote Quantification of Nitric Acid Concentration and Temperature

Near-infrared spectrophotometry and partial least squares regression (PLSR) were evaluated to create a pleasantly simple yet effective approach for measuring HNO3 concentration with varying temperature levels. A training set, which covered HNO3 concentrations (0.1–8 M) and temperature (10–40 °C), was selected using a D-optimal design to minimize the number of samples required in the calibration set for PLSR analysis. The top D-optimal-selected PLSR models had root mean squared error of prediction values of 1.4% for HNO 3 and 4.0% for temperature. The PLSR models built from spectra collected on static samples were validated against flow tests including HNO 3 concentration and temperature gradients to test abnormal conditions (e.g., bubbles) and the model performance between sample points in the factor space. Based on cross-validation and prediction modeling statistics, the designed near-infrared absorption approach can provide remote, quantitative analysis of HNO 3 concentration and temperature for production-oriented applications in facilities where laser safety challenges would inhibit the implementation of other optical techniques (e.g., Raman spectroscopy) and in which space, time, and/or resources are constrained. The experimental design approach effectively minimized the number of samples in the training set and maintained or improved PLSR model performance, which makes the described chemometric approach more amenable to nuclear field applications.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Habitat

The combined effects of fire history, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) on habitat specialists need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually only emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights, which are dynamic because of frequent fires. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells (that represented potential territories) because fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities vary between states as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges (e.g., roads, forests), precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presence/absence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the longest fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Edges reduced the effectiveness of fires in setting degraded scrub and flatwoods into earlier successional states making mechanical cutting an important tool to compliment frequent prescribed fires.

Breininger, David R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Building a Real-Time Flood Prediction Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of applied remote sensing analyses is increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP National Program partnered with the local government of Howard County, Maryland, to investigate the use of machine learning for advanced flood risk detection, and to test the feasibility of integrating this approach into the county’s flood early warning system. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the project developed a statistical model capable of hindcasting the two severe flash flood events that devastated Ellicott City and transitioned to a ‘Long Short-Term Memory’ based sequence-to-sequence deep learning model with 8-hour forecast capability. The team combined data inputs from public sources including river and precipitation gauges, NASA and NOAA Earth observations, and numerical weather model products using scripts written in the Google Colaboratory Python scripting environment. In addition to designing the deep learning architecture, the team trained and tested the model, and evaluated its performance using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. The final product, the Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM) predicts stage height for the Hudson Branch gauge in Ellicott City using data products available in near real-time, including the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model’s accumulated precipitation forecasts supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the U.S. Geological Survey. STREAM was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface capable of triggering the alarms that initiate emergency response protocols up to 8 hours in advance of a predicted severe flood event. The project demonstrated the potential for the integration of open data and Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing near real-time decision making.

NASA DEVELOP↗