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DOE OSTI2025

Factors That Influence Variability in Stress-Drop Measurements Using Spectral Decomposition and Spectral-Ratio Methods for the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

Stress drop is a fundamental parameter related to earthquake source physics, but is hard to measure accurately. To better understand how different factors influence stress-drop measurements, we compare two different methods using the Ridgecrest stress-drop validation data set: spectral decomposition (SD) and spectral ratio (SR), each with different processing options. Here, we also examine the influence of spectral complexity on source parameter measurement. Applying the SD method, we find that frequency bandwidth and time-window length could influence spectral magnitude calibration, while depth-dependent attenuation is important to correctly map stress-drop variations. For the SR method, we find that the selected source model has limited influence on the measurements; however, the Boatwright model tends to produce smaller standard deviation and larger magnitude dependence than the Brune model. Variance reduction threshold, frequency bandwidth, and time-window length, if chosen within an appropriate parameter range, have limited influence on source parameter measurement. For both methods, wave type, attenuation correction, and spectral complexity strongly influence the result. The scale factor that quantifies the magnitude dependence of stress drop show large variations with different processing options, and earthquakes with complex source spectra deviating from the Brune-type source models tend to have larger scale factor than earthquakes without complexity. Based on these detailed comparisons, we make a few specific suggestions for data processing workflows that could help future studies of source parameters and interpretations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

A multi‐variable framework for selecting WRF physics configurations at convection‐permitting scales: An Amazon wet‐season case study

Tropical convection over rainforests modulates atmospheric circulation and the energy and hydrological cycles across multiple scales. However, the scarcity of observations still limits our understanding of these processes. Although numerical models are utilized to investigate atmospheric physical processes, their performance depends on the choice of parameterizations and grid resolution. Here, in this work, we introduce and apply a multi‐variable, multi‐physics framework to evaluate and rank the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF–ARW) configurations at 1‐km resolution over the central Amazon during the wet season. A 48‐member ensemble combines three land‐surface models (LSMs), four planetary boundary layer (PBL), and four microphysics (MP) schemes. Model performance for seven convection‐related near‐surface and boundary‐layer variables is assessed using Taylor diagrams and the Taylor skill score (TSS), analysis of variance (ANOVA)‐based sensitivity metrics, and non‐parametric rank tests. We then construct a combined, weighted TSS to identify configurations that are comparatively robust across variables. Results showed that most configurations reproduce near‐surface temperature, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and boundary‐layer height reasonably well, whereas humidity and rainfall remain challenging. LSM choice has the strongest impact on the surface fluxes and a secondary influence on near‐surface temperature and humidity, PBL schemes dominate boundary‐layer height, and MP schemes exert the largest control on rainfall. No single configuration is optimal for all variables, but the combination of Noah (LSM), Yonsei University (PBL), and Morrison (MP) emerges as the most robust configuration for this case, with the WRF single‐moment six‐class scheme (WSM6) providing a competitive, computationally cheaper MP alternative. The framework is general and can be applied to other regions, seasons, and convective regimes.

Amazon rainforest↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modulation induced by very-large-scale motions on the inclination angle of wall-attached eddies: an atmospheric surface layer experiment

The forward leaning inclination angle, 𝛾, of coherent turbulent structures is a well-known feature of wall-bounded turbulent flows. Although invariant across friction Reynolds numbers within the range 𝑅𝑒 𝜏 =10 3 −10 6 , 𝛾 can vary significantly across turbulent scales within a high-Reynolds-number flow. Very-large-scale motions (VLSMs) are known to induce significant changes in the instantaneous shear profile, which is a conditioning event that could trigger variability in the inclination angle of smaller coherent turbulent structures. Although this aspect has been extensively studied via numerical and laboratory experiments, few studies have explored this feature for a very-high-Reynolds-number atmospheric flow. In this work, the inclination angle of turbulent structures within the atmospheric surface layer at a very high Reynolds number (𝑅𝑒 𝜏 =7.9 ×10 5 ) is investigated by deploying a scanning Doppler light detection and ranging and a super large particle image velocimetry (SLPIV) apparatus. The inclination angle of wall-attached eddies is inferred either from the two-point correlation of streamwise velocity (𝛾 =41.1∘) or with a scale-dependent approach through the spectral linear stochastic estimator (SLSE). The SLSE (and, thus, the scale-dependent inclination angle) is conditionally evaluated based on the high- and low-momentum events induced by VLSMs, both in the streamwise (𝑢′𝑉𝐿𝑆𝑀) and in the vertical (𝑤′ 𝑉𝐿𝑆𝑀) velocity components. As a result, lower inclination angles (𝛾 =30° −50°) are found for 𝑢$^{'}_{VLSM}$ >0 (𝑤$^{'}_{VLSM}$ <0), while higher values (50° −85°) are ascribed to 𝑢$^{'}_{VLSM}$ <0 (𝑤$^{'}_{VLSM}$ >0). This result emphasises the primary role that VLSMs play in shaping the wall-attached eddy geometry, which, in turn, is crucial to determine the Reynolds stress balance within the wall-attached eddy range.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Explaining drivers of housing prices with nonlinear hedonic regressions

Housing markets play a critical role in shaping the spatial and demographic evolution of urban areas. Simulating housing price dynamics can enhance projections of future urban development outcomes. However, traditional hedonic regressions for housing prices, which neglect nonlinear interactions among explanatory variables, often exhibit limited predictive performance. While machine learning (ML) methods can provide a more flexible representation of the relationships between predictors, they are often regarded as “black boxes” due to their complexity and lack of transparency. Interpretable ML techniques provide a promising route by combining the flexibility of ML methods with approaches to analyze the relationships between inputs and outputs. In this study, we employ interpretable ML to analyze the patterns driving the housing market in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. We train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict Baltimore housing prices based on structural characteristics (e.g., home size, number of stories) and locational attributes (e.g., distance to the city center). We then conduct sensitivity and Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) analyses to interpret the fitted ANN model. We find that the ML model achieves higher predictive accuracy and explains 16 % more of housing price variance than a traditional linear regression model. The interpretable ML model also reveals more nuanced and realistic nonlinear relationships between housing sales price and predictors as well as interactive effects underlying Baltimore home price dynamics. For instance, while the linear model indicates a steady housing price increase over time, our interpretable ML model detects a post-2008 decline, with smaller properties experiencing the sharpest drop.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Variable Surface Termination and Ligand Passivation of Lead Sulfide Nanocrystals Synthesized with Excess Lead Chloride

The surface termination and ligand passivation of semiconducting nanocrystals (NCs) impact the stability, optical properties, and self-assembly of NCs. In this work, we definitively characterize the surface of lead sulfide (PbS) NCs synthesized from excess PbCl 2 . With a combination of small-angle neutron scattering (SANS), photoluminescence, and 1D and 2D NMR experiments, we show that the surface termination of PbS NCs depends on the presence of PbCl 2 during ligand exchange. When excess PbCl 2 is removed prior to ligand exchange, PbS[RNH 3 + Cl – ] NCs are obtained, which are terminated by a monolayer of PbCl x on the {100} PbS facet and passivated by oleylammonium chloride ligands. On the other hand, when excess PbCl 2 remains in solution during ligand exchange, lead oleate forms and attaches to the {111} PbS facets of PbS[RNH 3 + Cl – ] NCs, creating PbS@PbCl x NCs. PbS@PbCl x NCs are coated in an epitaxial layer of PbCl x on both the {100} PbS and {111} PbS facets, making them 0.3–0.4 nm larger on average than PbS[RNH 3 + Cl – ] NCs with identical absorption wavelengths. Additionally, PbS@PbCl x NCs have a consistently higher photoluminescence quantum yield and longer photoluminescence lifetimes than PbS[RNH 3 + Cl – ] NCs. This study clarifies the surface structure of PbS NCs synthesized from excess PbCl 2 , highlighting ligand exchange strategies and reconciling observations from across the literature.

Anions↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble cure kinetics network (ECK-Net): A method to derive cure kinetics of thermosetting resin

This paper introduces an Ensemble Cure Kinetics Network (ECK-Net), a neural network (NN)–based framework for modeling the cure kinetics of thermosetting resins within a phenomenological context. ECK-Net replaces traditional analytic models, which require extensive chemical insight and multiple isothermal/non-isothermal experiments, with a data-driven surrogate that maps nonlinear relationships between temperature, degree of cure, and reaction rate from differential scanning calorimetry data. The proposed approach predicts input-dependent kinetic coefficients of a generalized nth-order reaction equation rather than reaction rates directly, enabling a single unified model to represent various epoxy systems without relying on iso-conversional analysis or predefined functional forms. To ensure robustness, multiple independently trained networks under different random initializations are blended through an ensemble strategy, effectively mitigating the stochastic variability inherent to neural networks. The framework is validated using experimental datasets from multiple resin systems, including aerospace-grade materials (Toray 3900-2, Cycom 5320-1, and Hexcel 8552) and a windmill-grade resin (RIMR 035c). The model accurately reproduces the temporal evolution of the degree of cure under manufacturers’ recommended cure cycles across all tested resins systems, yielding Pearson’s correlation coefficients of 0.992, 0.994, 0.993, 0.997, respectively. To demonstrate process-level applicability, the trained network was implemented within the Abaqus environment to simulate out-of-autoclave (OOA) curing process of the CFRP panel composed of Toray T830H-6K/3900-2D prepreg. The simulation results showed excellent agreement with experimental temperature response (maximum peak temperature, simulation: 189.6 °C, experiment: 188.5 °C) and the final degree of cure (simulation: 0.948, experiment: 0.960 ± 0.013), confirming ECK-Net’s capability as a reliable alternative to conventional cure kinetics modeling methods.

Composite curing↗

DOE OSTI2026

Constraining the Aerosol Effects on Deep Convective Clouds by Considering the Coupling Between Clouds and the Planetary Boundary Layer

Several mechanisms have been proposed for the aerosol invigoration effect. Although their principles are well established, their actual magnitudes and roles in cloud development remain uncertain and debatable. This uncertainty partly stems from observational-based studies, in which it has been challenging to separate the co-variability between aerosols and meteorology. Addressing this problem requires large data samples. To this end, this study employs the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement data set expanding to 16 years (some up to 17 years, compared to 10 years in previous work) in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. It also conducts a more careful and rigorous analysis to isolate the influences of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and synoptic patterns to address a previously raised concern. We incorporated a new key process affecting aerosol-cloud interaction: cloud-surface coupling. The state/degree of the coupling relationship turns out to play an important role in the invigoration effect. Our analysis reinforces earlier findings of a robust positive relationship between cloud thickness and aerosol loading across CAPE percentiles—but only under cloud-surface coupled conditions. The increase in cloud thickness with aerosol loading is most pronounced in coupled clouds with high CAPE and bases below 1 km. Coupled clouds with bases below 1 km thicken between 1 and 4 km, depending on the CAPE percentile. Decoupled clouds show no such systematic changes. Synoptic patterns also lead to different strengths of the invigoration effect. Clean and polluted air masses are predominantly associated with northerly and southerly winds, respectively, with a stronger invigoration effect in cleaner air masses.

Geosciences↗

DOE OSTI2021

Digital Twin Model for Advanced Manufacture of a Rotating Detonation Engine Injector

A digital twin material model (DTMM) of an additive manufacturing (AM) process was created to advance the state of the art in rotating detonation engine (RDE) injector design. Current RDE injectors are designed with large pressure drops, enabling a stable and repeatable combustion process. However, this comes at the cost of system efficiency. For the technology to transition to commercial fossil-based power generation, it is important to develop injectors with reduced flow losses. Low-loss injectors are difficult to design and manufacture with conventional manufacturing techniques. AM enables new design options, but the AM manufacturing process must be thoroughly understood to result in a robust design. A DTMM provides the necessary insight by defining the cause-effect relationships between process parameters, microstructure features, and properties. Therefore, a DTMM to support the design and manufacturing process was developed and applied to the design of a new additively manufactured low-loss injector. The injector combustion behavior was characterized through hot-fire tests, and mechanical performance was compared to the DTMM predictions. The two project goals were the successful development of the DTMM and the demonstration of an improved RDE injector design. The RDE injector design and DTMM developments occurred on parallel but dependent paths. The injector was designed to reduce pressure drop by increasing the cross-sectional flow area ratio between the injector air passages and the combustor annulus. This resulted in less structural material, raising the concern that thin members would be susceptible to high-cycle fatigue (HCF) under the periodic loading inherent to an RDE. It was most important for the DTMM to predict behavior in these features; therefore, the injector design concept guided the material thicknesses used in fatigue tests. The DTMM development started by manufacturing a series of coupons over the range of possible AM process variations. A design-of-experiment approach was used to select which process variable combinations gave the most efficient coverage relevant to the injector design space. The microstructure in each of these coupons was characterized, and then computational methods were used to create a numerical model of the correlation between process variables and microstructure. Next, a set of HCF samples were tested to calibrate existing models that map microstructure to HCF performance. Together, these two links formed the DTMM that calculates HCF behavior from AM process variables. Two injector prototypes were additively manufactured. The first injector design strategy aggressively pursued low-loss performance by substantially increasing the oxidizer flow area. The combination of manufacturing lead times and the fatigue testing schedule meant that the DTMM was not available when building this first prototype. Therefore, its process parameters were chosen based on a manual review of the available coupon data. This prototype was built successfully and evaluated in 58 combustion tests. Sustained detonation was achieved with remarkably reduced pressure loss, and some tests even displayed pressure loss characteristics similar to conventional gas turbine combustors. This achieved the project goal of improving RDE injector design. The second injector was manufactured according to the optimized parameters predicted by the DTMM. The flow area modifications of this injector were less aggressive than the first injector since demonstrating low pressure loss was not an objective of the second hot-fire test series. Rather, the test objective was to cause high cycle fatigue failure in the part due to periodic loading from the rotating detonation wave. The observed number of cycles to failure was to be compared to the number predicted by the DTMM and thereby assess the utility of the DTMM in component design. However, the required level of vibration was not obtained during combustion. Therefore, high cycle fatigue was not experienced in the hot-fire tests of the second injector. Fatigue data was obtained by further testing the second injector in a conventional HCF test apparatus. The injector demonstrated HCF strength above the DTMM prediction. In fact, it did not fail and testing was only discontinued due to reaching the end of the period of performance. This points to some success in the project’s primary goal of successfully developing and applying the DTMM to a component design. Implementing the DTMM recommendations for optimal processing parameters led to a part with acceptable properties. The DTMM was also shown to be an efficient correlator of data and to provide insight into the relationship between process settings, microstructure, and property performance. However, the failure of the DTMM prediction to match the experimental result of the injector fatigue test also points to the need to include significantly more data in the model development. In this project, coupons made with identical processing parameters exhibited drastically different properties from each other and from the injector part, which clearly influences the accuracy of a model that predicts performance based on parameters. Uncertainties in the build process must be quantified to develop more robust models. A denser and broader matrix of coupon process and geometry variations, several repeated builds of every point, more in-situ build process measurements, and direct observation of tensile and HCF sample microstructure (as opposed to separate microstructure specimens) are recommendations to improve future AM modeling efforts.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Temperature‐Dependent Crystallization in Two‐Step Perovskite Deposition Revealed by In Situ GIWAXS and Machine Learning‐Guided Analysis

The performance and stability of perovskite solar cells are strongly governed by the crystallization behavior of their active layer. In two-step sequential deposition, early-stage film formation plays a decisive role in determining final phase purity and device quality. Guided by a data-driven analysis of nearly 39 000 devices in the FAIR perovskite database, we identified solvent-mediated quenching and thermal processing as key variables affecting power conversion efficiency (PCE), particularly in two-step fabrication. Here, to investigate these effects in real time, we designed and implemented a custom-built, temperature-controlled spin-coating system, enabling precise thermal modulation during precursor deposition. Using this platform, we performed in situ GIWAXS measurements to study the crystallization dynamics of FA 0.5 MA 0.5 PbI 3 films over a temperature range of 30°C–90°C. Our results reveal a non-monotonic relationship between spin-coating temperature and α-phase formation, governed by the interplay between precursor interdiffusion, PbI 2 crystallinity, and δ-phase suppression. The custom thermal control enabled us to isolate and quantify these competing effects during the earliest stages of film formation, providing mechanistic insight into how spin-coating temperature governs both phase purity and kinetic pathways in two-step perovskite systems. Temperature-dependent SEM and photovoltaic device measurements further demonstrate that early-stage crystallization pathways directly translate into differences in morphology, charge-transport continuity, and device performance. These findings inform targeted strategies for optimizing deposition protocols to balance rapid nucleation, phase stability, and device performance.

Saadawy, Ahmed [King Fahd University of Petroleum ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Flavor, transverse momentum, and azimuthal dependence of charged pion multiplicities in semi-inclusive deep-inelastic scattering with 10.6 GeV electrons

Measurements of semi-inclusive deep-inelastic scattering multiplicities for 𝜋 + and 𝜋 − from proton and deuteron targets are reported on a grid of hadron kinematic variables 𝑧, 𝑃 𝑇 , and 𝜙* for leptonic kinematic variables in the range 0.3<𝑥<0.6 and 3<𝑄 2 <5GeV 2 . Data were acquired in 2018 and 2019 at Jefferson Lab Hall C with a 10.6 GeV electron beam impinging on 10-cm-long liquid hydrogen and deuterium targets. Scattered electrons and charged pions were detected in the High Momentum Spectrometer and Super High Momentum Spectrometer, respectively. The multiplicities were fitted for each bin in (𝑥,𝑄 2 ,𝑧,𝑃𝑡) to extract the 𝜙*—independent 𝑀 0 and the azimuthal modulations ⟨cos⁡(𝜙*)⟩ and ⟨cos⁡(2⁢𝜙*)⟩. The 𝑃𝑡 dependence of the 𝑀 0 results was found to be remarkably consistent for the four cases studied: 𝑒⁢𝑝→𝑒⁢𝜋 + ⁢𝑋, 𝑒⁢𝑝→𝑒⁢𝜋 − ⁢𝑋, 𝑒⁢𝑑→𝑒⁢𝜋 + ⁢𝑋, 𝑒⁢𝑑→𝑒⁢𝜋 − ⁢𝑋 over the range 0GeV<𝑃 𝑡 <0.4GeV, as were the multiplicities evaluated near 𝜙*=180∘ over the extended range 0GeV<𝑃 𝑡 <0.7GeV. The Gaussian widths of the 𝑃 𝑡 dependence exhibit a quadratic increase with 𝑧. The cos⁡(𝜙*) modulations were found to be consistent with zero for 𝜋 + , in agreement with previous world data, while the 𝜋 − moments were, in many cases, significantly greater than zero. The cos⁡(2⁢𝜙*) modulations were found to be consistent with zero. The higher statistical precision of this dataset of about 20 000 individual multiplicity values, compared with previously published data, should allow improved determinations of quark transverse momentum distributions and higher twist contributions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cost of Fish Exclusion and Passage Technologies for Hydropower

Hydropower represents a reliable source of renewable energy and accounts for approximately 7% of the total electrical generation in the United States. Future expansion of hydropower is likely to be in the form of either smaller new stream development projects or powering existing non-powered dams. For these new projects to be successful, careful analysis of risks, costs, and uncertainty to offset reduced power production as well as ensuring the protection and safe passage of migratory fish to gain public support, will be required. Exclusion and passage are two common approaches to protect fish from entrainment and impingement at hydropower facilities. The thresholds for entrainment risk and requirements for exclusion and passage often differ depending on the species involved, the characteristics of the facility, and the goals of stakeholders. While the costs associated with environmental mitigations represent a large proportion of the total costs required for the licensing of hydropower facilities, little quantitative information is present within the literature regarding the specific costs of fish exclusion and passage. Working with FOA awardee Natel Energy, scientists at Oak Ridge National Laboratory were tasked with assessing the capital construction costs for downstream fish exclusion and passage infrastructure. This report used keyword searches of an existing environmental mitigation cost data set and manual extraction of additional cost data associated with protection, mitigation, and enhancement (PM&E) measures related to positive barrier screening and passage from regulatory licensing documents available in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) eLibrary. This approach yielded a total of 50 PM&E mitigation measures with estimated capital construction costs pertaining to positive barrier screens, 142 pertaining to passage studies, and 26 pertaining to passage-related studies. PM&E measures associated with positive barrier screens represented <10% of the 171 total FERC project dockets available in the data set. These data were highly skewed toward conventional relicensing projects, as <7% were associated with new stream development (NSD) projects. Results from these data indicate highly variable costs associated with fish screening, with flow-normalized costs one to two orders of magnitude higher for screening with the highest exclusion capability (≤0.09 in. spacing) compared with coarser screening (1 to 2 in.). Furthermore, estimated capital costs of passage infrastructure were positively related to the scale of the project based on installed capacity for some, but not all, types of passage. These data provide an initial baseline for estimating exclusion and passage costs for hydropower development and may help developers consider options for more fish-friendly generation technologies, though gaps remain relating to a lack of data, particularly for NSD projects. More data may still be available within the FERC eLibrary, but significant effort will be required to manually identify and extract the data for future analyses.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulation insights into wetting properties of hydrogen-brine-clay for hydrogen geo-storage

Hydrogen geo-storage is attracting substantial interdisciplinary interest as a cost-effective and sustainable option for medium- and long-term storage. Hydrogen can be stored underground in diverse formations, including aquifers, salt caverns, and depleted oil and gas reservoirs. The wetting dynamics of the hydrogen-brine-rock system are critical for assessing both structural and residual storage capacities, and ensuring containment safety. Through molecular dynamics simulations, we explore how varying concentrations of cushion gases (CO 2 or CH 4 ) influence the wetting properties of hydrogen-brine-clay systems under geological conditions (15 MPa and 333 K). We employed models of talc and the hydroxylated basal face of kaolinite (kaoOH) as clay substrates. Our findings reveal that the effect of cushion gases on hydrogen-brine-clay wettability is strongly dependent on the clay-brine interactions. Notably, CO 2 and CH 4 reduce the water wettability of talc in hydrogen-brine-talc systems, while exerting no influence on the wettability of hydrogen-brine-kaoOH systems. Detailed analysis of free energy of cavity formation near clay surfaces, clay-brine interfacial tensions, and the Willard-Chandler surface for gas-brine interfaces elucidate the molecular mechanisms underlying wettability changes. Our simulations identify empirical correlations between wetting properties and the average free energy required to perturb a flat interface when clay-brine interactions are less dominant. Here, our thorough thermodynamic analysis of rock-fluid and fluid-fluid interactions, aligning with key experimental observations, underscores the utility of simulated interfacial properties in refining contact angle measurements and predicting experimentally relevant properties. These insights significantly enhance the assessment of gas geo-storage potential. Prospectively, the approaches and findings obtained from this study could form a basis for more advanced multiscale simulations that consider a range of geological and operational variables, potentially guiding the development and improvement of geo-storage systems in general, with a particular focus on hydrogen storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials using MALAMUTE

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy aims to develop and qualify additively manufactured materials for nuclear applications. One key challenge to this is the microstructural variability observed in the additively manufactured products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-throughput experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate qualification. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the additive manufacturing process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture microstructural variability is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning models to develop a digital twin for additive manufacturing that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the additive process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the unique microstructural characteristics of additively manufactured materials. Microstructural features at the subgrain level, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. Idaho National Laboratory’s Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for additively manufactured materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work focuses on capturing the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. In fiscal year 2025, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, in terms of the predictive capabilities of the physics-based and ML models, by adding the capabilities to capture subgrain-level micro-segregation during solidification using phase-field model and to predict the time-dependent dynamics of the AM process through the MOGPAR model. The alloy solidification model in MOOSE incorporates the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316 stainless steel. The model demonstrates the Cr and Ni segregation that occurs during solidification, including that the rate of solidification. The microstructural evolution model is connected to the process conditions via the surrogate model developed in this work. This enables predictions of the final microstructure in conjunctions with the manufacturing process. This work supports AMMT's rapid qualification goals by laying the foundation for an efficient and cost-effective model establishing the PSPP correlation for AM. The generated microstructures and predicted micro-segregation can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work helps to identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property and performance predictions of additively manufactured components. This work will also provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions and simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work can help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for additive manufacturing and accelerate the AMMT's qualification efforts.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Magnetic skyrmionic structures with variable topological charges in engineered Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction systems

Magnetic skyrmionic structures, including magnetic skyrmions and antiskyrmions, are characterized by swirling spin textures with non-trivial topologies. They are featured with specific topological charges, Q , which are of crucial importance in determining their topological properties. Owing to the invariance of the chiral nature, it is generally believed that Q is conserved in a given magnetic skyrmionic structure and is hard to alter. Here, we experimentally realize the control of Q of magnetic skyrmionic structures at room temperature in a Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction (DMI) platform with spatially alternating signs. Depending on how many times it crosses the interfaces between DMI regions with opposite signs, the magnetic skyrmionic structures possess different Q . Modifying the DMI energy landscape through chemisorbed oxygen, a magnetic topological transition is realized. This creation and manipulation of magnetic skyrmionic structures with controllable Q , in particular the DMI-stabilized thin-film antiskyrmions and high- Q skyrmionic structures, enables a new degree of freedom to control their dynamics via a novel DMI confinement effect. Our findings open up an unexplored avenue on various topological magnetic skyrmionic structures and their potential applications.

magnetic properties and materials↗

DOE OSTI2026

Global Characteristics of the IBEX Ribbon and Its Temporal Variation: Implications for Relationships with Solar Cycle Variability and the Interstellar Magnetic Field

The Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) has revealed the existence of the energetic neutral atom (ENA) ribbon, a narrow and nearly circular band of enhanced flux that enables probing plasma and magnetic field conditions outside the heliopause (HP). In this study, we investigate the global structure and temporal variation of the IBEX ribbon using 14 yr of IBEX-Hi ENA observations. We derive geometric parameters of the ribbon: center location, angular radius, eccentricity, and major axis orientation. We find that the ribbon exhibits systematic variations tied to the solar cycle. The ribbon center shows a solar cycle–modulated latitudinal motion at low energies. The angular radius increases with ENA energy and displays a pronounced enlargement between 2013 and 2018, coinciding with changes in high-latitude fast solar wind from polar coronal holes. The eccentricity remains consistently around 0.3 with some temporal evolution, while the major axis rotates gradually over time, becoming increasingly perpendicular to the ecliptic meridional plane. A notable hemispheric asymmetry has emerged over time: the ribbon in the northern hemisphere remains remarkably stable in position, whereas the southern ribbon exhibits temporal migration. By combining these results with solar wind observations, global heliosphere, and ribbon modeling, we suggest that this asymmetry is explained by a coupled effect of magnetic field draping and the latitude-dependent timing of fast solar wind from polar coronal holes. These results establish the most detailed long-term geometric characterization of the IBEX ribbon to date and provide observational support for models of secondary ENA production and magnetic field draping outside the HP.

Noh, Sung Jun [New Mexico Consortium, Los Alamos, ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Coal-Biomass Co-Firing Power Plants with Carbon Capture and Storage

The United States has set a target to achieve the net-zero economy by 2050. Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (BECCS) is one of the promising negative-emission routes in the mitigation portfolio to help meet this goal. Coal-biomass co-firing with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key BECCS technology to realize the carbon mitigation at fossil-fuel power plants. The mitigation potential of co-firing option is affected by numerous critical factors, such as biomass properties, co-firing level, and carbon capture rate. The objectives of the study are to characterize and estimate the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and performance of coal-biomass co-firing power plants with CCS, determine the breakeven co-firing level at power plants necessary to achieve net-zero life cycle emissions, and quantify the variabilities and uncertainties in life cycle emissions. The scope of the life cycle assessment includes the fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. A fuel-based life cycle module is developed and embedded in the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM), a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. This study then applies the enhanced IECM to conduct the process-based life cycle assessment for an array of biomass co-firing scenarios. Deterministic analysis indicates that reaching net-zero life cycle emissions in a biomass co-firing plant without CCS deployment is challenging. Combining biomass co-firing and CCS deployment can significantly lower the overall life cycle emissions of power plants. Net-zero life cycle emissions can be achieved with a 20 wt.% co-firing level and 90% CCS when the Powder River Basin coal is co-fired with energy crops or forestry residues. However, the breakeven co-firing level for net-zero emissions depend on the selected fuel properties. Fuel supply and plant operation are the critical stages influencing the life cycle emissions of power plants with 90% CCS. Deployment of deep CCS beyond 90% CO2 capture can remarkably reduce operational emissions and the breakeven co-firing level. With 99% CCS, the breakeven co-firing rate can be reduced to 12% on average. These findings highlight the trade-offs between technical performance and environmental impact of biomass co-firing at coal-fired power plants and emphasize the role of deep CCS in achieving a net-zero emissions future.

Wu, Wanying↗

DOE OSTI2026

QCD Theory and Transverse Momentum Dependent Physics

A major challenge for QCD theorists is to understand how to different categories of QCD physics contribute to a single observable. This is the goal of QCD factorization theory. Today, QCD physicists are tasked with describing increasingly detailed properties of transverse momentum dependent particle distributions, including their shapes and normalizations, their variation with energy and other kinematical variables, the identity of particles involved, correlations with spin, and the relationship between transverse momentum distributions in different processes. Embedded within that broad effort are specific fundamental questions at the heart of QCD theory. Namely, how does one give precise, quantitative meaning to quark and gluon concepts in hard scattering events, and what are the limits of those concepts? In the past two decades, there has been a renaissance in TMD QCD, with a broad spectrum of motivations driving the study of TMD observables. TMD QCD studies are in a transformative stage; subfields that traditionally progressed nearly independently of one other, such as hadronic structure studies and the study of perturbative QCD gluon radiation in high-energy collisions, are becoming intertwined. It is thus becoming increasingly clear that unified approaches -- those that incorporate all the relevant phenomena into a single formalism rooted in QCD fundamentals -- will be critical to the mission to expand the current understanding of QCD nuclear/hadronic dynamics. TMD QCD factorization theorems and their generalizations will be central to these efforts. The factorization theorems, in addition, provide the practical prescription for applying specific calculations to phenomenology. The goal of this project was to unify and push the boundaries of traditional TMD research and prepare it for use in future phenomenological applications.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Flexibility Options: A Proposed Product for Managing Imbalance Risk

The presence of variable renewable energy resources with uncertain outputs in day-ahead electricity markets results in additional balancing needs in real-time. Addressing those needs cost-effectively and reliably within a competitive market with unbundled products is challenging as both the demand for and the availability of flexibility depends on day-ahead energy schedules. Existing approaches for reserve procurement usually rely either on oversimplified demand curves that do not consider how system conditions that particular day affect the value of flexibility, or on bilateral trading of hedging instruments that are not co-optimized with day-ahead schedules. This article proposes a new product, ‘Flexibility Options', to address these two limitations. The demand for this product is endogenously determined in the day-ahead market and it is met cost-effectively by considering real-time supply curves for product providers, which are co-optimized with the energy supply. As we illustrate with numerical examples and mathematical analysis, the product addresses the hedging needs of participants with imbalances cost-effectively, provides a less intermittent revenue stream for participants with flexible outputs, promotes value-driven pricing of flexibility, and ensures that the system operator is revenue-neutral. This article provides a comprehensive design that can be further tested and applied in large-scale systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗