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At least 541 records · Page 30

A Laboratory Study of the Charging/Discharging Mechanisms of a Dust Particle Exposed to an Electron Beam

The interaction of micron sized particles or "dust particles" with different space and planetary environments has become an important area of research. One particular area of interest is how dust particles interact with plasmas. Studies have shown that charged dust particles immersed in plasmas can alter plasma characteristics, while ions and electrons in plasmas can affect a particle's potential and thereby, its interaction with other particles. The basis for understanding these phenomena is the charging mechanisms of the dust particle, specifically, how the particle's charge and characteristics are affected when exposed to ions and electrons. For example, when electrons collide with a dust particle, secondary electrons can be produced from the surface of a particle and can affect the surrounding plasma.

Venturini, C.C.↗

Handbook for Designing MMOD Protection

Spacecraft are subject to micro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impact damage which have the potential to degrade performance, shorten the mission, or result in catastrophic loss of the vehicle. Specific MMOD protection requirements are established by NASA for each spacecraft early in the program/project life, to ensure the spacecraft meets desired safety and mission success goals. Both the design and operations influences spacecraft survivability in the MMOD environment, and NASA considers both in meeting MMOD protection requirements. The purpose of this handbook is to provide spacecraft designers and operations personnel with knowledge gained by NASA in implementing effective MMOD protection for the International Space Station, Space Shuttle, and various science spacecraft. It has been drawn from a number of previous publications [10-14], as well as new work. This handbook documents design and operational methods to reduce MMOD risk. In addition, this handbook describes tools and equations needed to design proper MMOD protection. It is a living report, in that it will be updated and re-released periodically in future with additional information. Providing effective and efficient MMOD protection is essential for ensuring safe and successful operations of spacecraft and satellites. A variety of shields protect crew modules, external pressurized vessels and critical equipment from MMOD on the International Space Station (ISS). Certain Space Shuttle Orbiter vehicle systems are hardened from MMOD impact, and operational rules are established to reduce the risk from MMOD (i.e., flight attitudes are selected and late inspection of sensitive thermal protection surfaces are conducted to reduce MMOD impacts). Science spacecraft include specific provisions to meet MMOD protection requirements in their design (for example, Stardust & GLAST). Commercial satellites such as Iridium and Bigelow Aerospace Genesis spacecraft incorporate MMOD protection. The development of low-weight, effective MMOD protection has enabled these spacecraft missions to be performed successfully. This handbook describes these shielding techniques. For future exploration activities to the Moon and Mars, implementing high-performance MMOD shielding will be necessary to meet protection requirements with minimum mass penalty. A current area of technology development in MMOD shielding is the incorporation of sensors to detect and locate MMOD impact damage. Depending on the type of sensor the signals from the sensor can be processed to infer the location of the impact and the extent of damage. The objective of the sensors is to locate critical damage that would endanger the spacecraft or crew immediately or during reentry (such as an air leak from crew module or critical damage to thermal protection system of reentry vehicles). The information from the sensors can then be used with repair kits, patch kits, hatch closure or other appropriate remedial techniques to reduce MMOD risk.

Arnold, Jim↗

Lunar and Planetary Surface Dynamics and Early History

This document, submitted as part of this proposal renewal represents the Final Report required by NASA for Grant NAGS-9442. It should be emphasized that, while this work statement in the original proposal outlined anticipated directions of our research, the specific activities we carried out during this period differed slightly from those proposed, capitalizing on new unexpected results and new advances in analytical capability. The thrust of all the work we completed were completely within the stated research goals of the proposal and significantly advanced our knowledge of planetary processes and our understanding of the early solar system. The following summary outlines our achievements in the different areas of research. These include: A) Early solar system processes and time scales using I-Xe chronometry; B) The Active Capture of Volatiles: A new mechanism for the capture of heavy noble gases, possible implications for phase Q and planetary heavy noble gases; C) Separation of Xe-L from Xe-H: Physically selective experiments; D) Abundances of Presolar grains; E) Studies of Neon and Helium from single interstellar SiC and graphite grains; F) Pre-compaction exposure of meteoritic grains and chondrules; G) Geochemically Measured Half-Lives: Double beta-decay of Te and Ba isotopes; H) Noble gases in stratospheric interplanetary dust particles; I) New Analytical Instrument.

Source record↗

Determination of contamination character of materials in space technology testing

The contamination characters of selected materials used in space technology testing. Specific materials were subjected to a thermal vacuum environment, and the outgases were collected on a cold test mirror surface. Approximately one-half of the surface of the mirror was subjected to ultraviolet irradiation while the outgases were being deposited on the mirror. The purpose of these experiments was to determine the effect of ultraviolet irradiation on the contaminative character of outgases from selected materials. The degree of contamination was measured in terms of degradation of the optical properties of the test mirror and the amount of deposit per unit area on quartz crystal microbalances placed near the test mirror, and by means of quadrupole mass spectral measurements of outgases from the test samples.

Haynes, D. L.↗

Atmospheric effects on radiometry from zenith of a plane with dark vertical protrusions

Effects of an optically thin plane-parallel scattering atmosphere on radiometric imaging from the zenith of a specific surface-type are analyzed. The surface model was previously developed to describe arid steppe, where the sparse vegetation forms dark vertical protrusions from the bright soil-plane. The analysis is in terms of the surface reflectivity to the zenith r sub p for the direct beam, which is formulated as r sub p = r sub i exp (-s tan theta sub 0), where v sub i is the Lambert law reflectivity of the soil, the protrusions parameters s is the projection on a vertical plane of protrusions per unit area and theta sub 0 is the zenith angle. The surface reflectivity r sub p is approximately equal to that for the global irradiance (which is directly measured in the field) only for a narrow range of the solar zenith angles. The effects of the atmosphere when imaging large uniform areas of this type are comparable to those in imaging a Lambert surface with a reflectivity r sub p. Thus, the effects can be approximated by those in the case of a dark Lambert surface (analyzed previously), inasmuch as r sub p is smaller than the soil reflectivity r sub i for any off-zenith illumination. The surface becomes effectively darker with increasing solar zenith angle. Adjacency effects of a reflection from one area and scattering in the instantaneous field of view (object pixel) are analyzed as cross radiance and cross irradiance.

Otterman, J.↗

Effects of global atmospheric perturbations on forest ecosystems: Predictions of seasonal and cumulative effects

The physical effects of certain large events, such as giant impacts, explosive volcanism, or combined nuclear explosions, have the potential of inducing global catastrophes in our terrestrial environment. Such highly energetic events can inject substantial quantities of material into the atmosphere. In turn, this changes the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface and modifies atmospheric temperatures to produce a wide range of global effects. One consequence is the introduction of serious stresses in both plants and animals throughout the Earth's biosphere. For example, recent studies predict that forest lands, crop lands, and range lands would suffer specific physical and biological degradations if major physical and chemical disruptions occurred in our atmosphere. Forests, which cover over 4 times 10 to the 9th power hectares (4 times 10 to the 7th power sq km) of our planet, or about 3 times the area now cultivated for crops, are critical to many processes in the biosphere. Forests contribute heavily to the production of atmospheric oxygen, supply the major volume of biomass, and provide a significant percentage of plant and animal habitats.

Tinus, R. W.↗

Telerobotic Excavator Designed to Compete in NASA's Lunabotics Mining Competition

The second annual NASA Lunabotics Mining competition is to be held in May 23-28, 2011. The goal of the competition is for teams of university level students to design, build, test and compete with a fully integrated lunar excavator on a simulated lunar surface. Our team, named Lunar Solutions I, will be representing Temple University's College of Engineering in the competition. The team's main goal was to build a robot which is able to compete with other teams, and ultimately win the competition. The main challenge of the competition was to build a wireless robot that can excavate and collect a minimum of 10 kilograms of the regolith material within 15 minutes. The robot must also be designed to operate in conditions similar to those found on the lunar surface. The design of the lunar excavator is constrained by a set of requirements determined by NASA and detailed in the competition's rulebook. The excavator must have the ability to communicate with the "main base" wirelessly, and over a Wi-Fi network. Human operators are located at a remote site approximately 60 meters away from the simulated lunar surface upon which the robot must excavate the lunar regolith surface. During the competition, the robot will operate in a separate area from the control room in an area referred to as the "Lunarena." From the control room, the operators will have to control the robot using visual feedback from cameras placed both within the arena and on the robot. Using this visual feedback the human operators control the robots movement using both keyboard and joystick commands. In order to place in the competition, a minimum of 10 kg of regolith material has to be excavated, collected, and dumped into a specific location. For that reason, the robot must be provided with an effective and powerful excavation system. Our excavator uses tracks for the drive system. After performing extensive research and trade studies, we concluded that tracks would be the most effective method for transporting the excavator. When designing the excavation system, we analyzed several design options from the previous year's competition. We decided to use a front loader to collect the material, rather than a conveyer belt system or auger. Many of the designs from last year's competition used a conveyer belt mechanism to mine regolith and dump it into a temporary storage bin place on the robot. Using the front end loader approach allowed us to combine the scooping system and storage unit, which meant that the excavation system required less space.

Nash, Rodney↗

Refurbishment cost study of the thermal protection system of a space shuttle vehicle, phase 2

Labor costs and techniques associated with the refurbishment of representative TPS and their attach concepts suitable for space shuttle application have been identified on the basis of experimental tests. Ablative and reusable surface insulation TPS configurations were designed, fabricated, and tested on a full-scale mockup. The TPS attachment methods investigated included pi-strap, multiple mechanical fasteners, key/keyway, and direct bond concepts. Techniques for performing installation, inspection, repair and replacement of TPS components were studied by examining a variety of shop procedures. Major problem areas associated with these procedures and the designs to which they were applied were analyzed for several significant parameters such as handling, gaskets between joints, repair techniques, ablator plugs, etc. Results of time and motion studies of specific maintenance tasks, simulating operational procedures, were obtained. Using these data, refurbishment labor cost projections were generated for a representative Space Shuttle orbiter.

Haas, D. W.↗

An atlas of 1976 GEOS-3 radar altimeter data for tropical cyclone studies

The means for locating and extracting GEOS-3 altimeter data acquired for the analysis of specific hurricanes, typhoons, and other tropical cyclones are presented. These data are also expected to be extremely useful in the analysis of the behavior of the altimeter instrument in the presence of severe meteorological disturbances as well as provide a data base which can be useful in the resolution of apparently anomalous geoid or sea surface characteristics. Geographic locations of 1976 tropical cyclones were correlated with the closest approaching orbits of the GEOS-3 satellite and its radar altimeter. The cyclone locations and altimeter data were correlated for the 1976 season. The area of coverage includes the northern hemisphere. This document is a sequel to NASA TM-X-69364 which covered the majority of the 1975 season.

Stanley, H. R.↗

Estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures using upper-air and satellite data. Part 2: Estimation of the urban bias

A methodology is presented for estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures due to the effect of the urban heat island. Multiple regression techniques were used to predict surface shelter temperatures based on the time period 1986-89 using upper-air data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to represent the background climate, site-specific data to represent the local landscape, and satellite-derived data -- the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) nighttime brightness data -- to represent the urban and rural landscape. Local NDVI and DMSP values were calculated for each station using the mean NDVI and DMSP values from a 3 km x 3 km area centered over the given station. Regional NDVI and DMSP values were calculated to represent a typical rural value for each station using the mean NDVI and DMSP values from a 1 deg x 1 deg latitude-longitude area in which the given station was located. Models for the United States were then developed for monthly maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures using data from over 1000 stations in the U.S. Cooperative (COOP) Network and for monthly mean temperatures with data from over 1150 stations in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Local biases, or the differences between the model predictions using the observed NDVI and DMSP values, and the predictions using the background regional values were calculated and compared with the results of other research. The local or urban bias of U.S. temperatures, as derived from all U.S. stations (urban and rural) used in the models, averaged near 0.40 C for monthly minimum temperatures, near 0.25 C for monthly mean temperatures, and near 0.10 C for monthly maximum temperatures. The biases of monthly minimum temperatures for individual stations ranged from near -1.1 C for rural stations to 2.4 C for stations from the largest urban areas. The results of this study indicate minimal problems for global application once global NDVI and DMSP data become available.

Epperson, David L.↗

Circuits Enhance Scientific Instruments and Safety Devices

Since its founding in 1958, NASA has pioneered the use of different frequencies on the electromagnetic spectrum - including X-ray, microwave, and infrared wavelengths - to gather information about distant celestial bodies. During the 1962 Mariner 2 mission, NASA used microwave radiometers that operated in the range of 15-23 gigahertz (GHz) to assess the surface temperature of Venus and to determine the percentage of water vapor in its atmosphere. Today, there is another area on the spectrum proving uniquely useful to scientists: the terahertz (THz) range, spanning from about 100 GHz-10,000 GHz. (1 THz equals approximately 1,000 GHz.) Terahertz frequencies span the lesser-known gap on the electromagnetic spectrum between microwave radiation and infrared (and visible) light, falling within the spectral range where most simple molecules resonate. This molecular resonance makes terahertz particularly useful for chemical spectroscopy and the remote sensing of specific molecules. In the 1990s, NASA began using frequencies above 300 GHz (more than an order of magnitude higher than the instrumentation on Mariner 2) to perform spectral analysis of molecular clouds and planetary atmospheres. Instruments using these higher frequencies have included the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), deployed from 1991-2001, and the Microwave Instrument for the Rosetta Orbiter (MIRO), launched in 2004. With UARS-MLS, NASA used advanced terahertz receivers to measure the emission signatures from atmospheric molecules, providing researchers with valuable data about the changes in the Earth s protective ozone layer. MIRO, set to rendezvous with the comet 67P Churyumov-Gerasimenko in 2014, will use terahertz instrumentation to analyze the comet s dust and gases. Although NASA has been a driving force behind the development of terahertz technology, scientific equipment for terahertz research - including transmitters, receivers, and basic test and measurement equipment - is not widely available, making scientific experiments in this range between traditional electronics and quantum photonics more costly and greatly limiting commercial development in the field. Given NASA s interest in studying distant bodies in space as well as in improving life on Earth, the Agency has collaborated with private industry to develop terahertz technologies.

Source record↗

Using a Blender to Assess the Microbial Density of Encapsulated Organisms

There are specific NASA requirements for source-specific encapsulated microbial density for encapsulated organisms in non-metallic materials. Projects such as the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) that use large volumes of non-metallic materials of planetary protection concern pose a challenge to their bioburden budget. An optimized and adapted destructive hardware technology employing a commercial blender was developed to assess the embedded bioburden of thermal paint for the MSL project. The main objective of this optimization was to blend the painted foil pieces in the smallest sizes possible without excessive heating. The small size increased the surface area of the paint and enabled the release of the maximum number of encapsulated microbes. During a trial run, a piece of foil was placed into a blender for 10 minutes. The outside of the blender was very hot to the touch. Thus, the grinding was reduced to five 2-minute periods with 2-minute cooling periods between cycles. However, almost 20% of the foil fraction was larger (>2 mm). Thus, the largest fractions were then put into the blender and reground, resulting in a 71% increase in particles less than 1 mm in size, and a 76% decrease in particles greater than 2 mm in size. Because a repeatable process had been developed, a painted sample was processed with over 80% of the particles being <2 mm. It was not perceived that the properties (i.e. weight and rubber-like nature) of the painted/foil pieces would allow for a finer size distribution. With these constraints, each section would be ground for a total of 10 minutes with five cycles of a 2-minute pulse followed by a 2-minute pause. It was observed on several occasions that a larger blade affected the recovery of seeded spores by approximately half an order of magnitude. In the standard approach, each piece of painted foil was aseptically removed from the bag and placed onto a sterile tray where they were sized, cut, and cleaned. Each section was then weighed and placed into a sterile Waring Laboratory Blender. Samples were processed on low speed. The ground-up samples were then transferred to a 500-mL bottle using a sterile 1-in. (.2.5-cm) trim brush. To each of the bottles sterile planetary protection rinse solution was added and a modified NASA Standard Assay (NASA HBK 6022) was performed. Both vegetative and spore plates were analyzed.

Benardini, James N.↗

Precision Control of Thermal Transport in Cryogenic Single-Crystal Silicon Devices

We report on the diffusive-ballistic thermal conductance of multi-moded single-crystal silicon beams measured below 1 K. It is shown that the phonon mean-free-path is a strong function of the surface roughness characteristics of the beams. This effect is enhanced in diffuse beams with lengths much larger than, even when the surface is fairly smooth, 510 nm rms, and the peak thermal wavelength is 0.6 microns. Resonant phonon scattering has been observed in beams with a pitted surface morphology and characteristic pit depth of 30 nm. Hence, if the surface roughness is not adequately controlled, the thermal conductance can vary significantly for diffuse beams fabricated across a wafer. In contrast, when the beam length is of order, the conductance is dominated by ballistic transport and is effectively set by the beam cross-sectional area. We have demonstrated a uniformity of +/-8% in fractional deviation for ballistic beams, and this deviation is largely set by the thermal conductance of diffuse beams that support the micro-electro-mechanical device and electrical leads. In addition, we have found no evidence for excess specific heat in single-crystal silicon membranes. This allows for the precise control of the device heat capacity with normal metal films. We discuss the results in the context of the design and fabrication of large-format arrays of far-infrared and millimeter wavelength cryogenic detectors.

multi-moded single-crystal silicon beams↗

Human Mars Landing Site and Impacts on Mars Surface Operations

NASA has begun a process to identify and discuss candidate locations where humans could land, live and work on the Martian surface. These locations are referred to as Exploration Zones (EZs). Given current mission concepts, an EZ is a collection of Regions of Interest (ROIs) that are located within approximately 100 kilometers of a centralized landing site. ROIs are areas that are relevant for scientific investigation and/or development/maturation of capabilities and resources necessary for a sustainable human presence. The EZ also contains a landing site and a habitation site that will be used by multiple human crews during missions to explore and utilize the ROIs within the EZ. These candidate EZs will be used by NASA as part of a multi‐year process of determining where and how humans could explore Mars. In the near term this process includes: (a) identifying locations that would maximize the potential science return from future human exploration missions, (b) identifying locations with the potential for resources required to support humans, (c) developing concepts and engineering systems needed by future human crews to conduct operations within an EZ, and (d) identifying key characteristics of the proposed candidate EZs that cannot be evaluated using existing data sets, thus helping to define precursor measurements needed in advance of human missions. Existing and future robotic spacecraft will be tasked to gather data from specific Mars surface sites within the representative EZs to support these NASA activities. The proposed paper will describe NASA's initial steps for identifying and evaluating candidate EZs and ROIs. This includes plans for the "First Landing Site/Exploration Zone Workshop for Human Missions to the Surface of Mars" to be held in October 2015 at which proposals for EZs and ROIs will be presented and discussed. It will also include a discussion of how these considerations are (or will be) taken into account as future robotic Mars missions are defined and developed. One or more representative EZs, drawn from similar previous studies involving Mars sites, will be used in the proposed paper to illustrate the process NASA envisions for gathering additional data from robotic precursor missions to assist in making a final selection of an EZ for human crews as well as the steps likely to occur during the buildup of a habitation site. Examples of the systems and operations likely to be used by human crews, assisted by robotic vehicles, to explore the scientific ROIs as well as developing the resource ROIs within the example EZs will be discussed.

Bussey, Ben↗

Wireless Technology Use Case Requirement Analysis for Future Space Applications

This report presents various use case scenarios for wireless technology -including radio frequency (RF), optical, and acoustic- and studies requirements and boundary conditions in each scenario. The results of this study can be used to prioritize technology evaluation and development and in the long run help in development of a roadmap for future use of wireless technology. The presented scenarios cover the following application areas: (i) Space Vehicles (manned/unmanned), (ii) Satellites and Payloads, (iii) Surface Explorations, (iv) Ground Systems, and (v) Habitats. The requirement analysis covers two parallel set of conditions. The first set includes the environmental conditions such as temperature, radiation, noise/interference, wireless channel characteristics and accessibility. The second set of requirements are dictated by the application and may include parameters such as latency, throughput (effective data rate), error tolerance, and reliability. This report provides a comprehensive overview of all requirements from both perspectives and details their effects on wireless system reliability and network design. Application area examples are based on 2015 NASA Technology roadmap with specific focus on technology areas: TA 2.4, 3.3, 5.2, 5.5, 6.4, 7.4, and 10.4 sections that might benefit from wireless technology.

Abedi, Ali↗

Impact histories inferred from exogenic boulders on asteroids Ryugu and Bennu

Rubble-pile asteroids, such as (162173) Ryugu and (101955) Bennu, are formed as a result of catastrophic disruption of a parent body and re-accumulation of the fragments by self-gravity. Therefore, reaccumulated rubble piles could include mixtures of materials from both the parent body and its catastrophic impactor, as they did in the case of 2008 TC3 and the Almahata Sitta meteorites (Jenniskens et al. 2009). Indeed, six unusually bright, basaltic, meter-scale boulders were recently identified on Bennu’s dark surface (DellaGiustina et al. 2021), and their close spectral matches to the Howardite-Eucrite-Diogenite (HED) meteorites and Vesta family members indicate that they originated from asteroid (4) Vesta. In parallel, bright exogenic anhydrous-silicate–rich materials were found on Ryugu (Tatsumi et al. 2021). The bright boulders on Ryugu are consistent with ordinary chondrite meteorites, based on their albedo and weak or even absent absorption band at 2 µm. These exogenous materials on the surfaces of rubble-pile asteroids could be a key to constraining their specific impact conditions and collisional evolution. In this study, we report further study of the visible spectrophotometry and morphology of exogenic boulders on Ryugu and Bennu using two multi-band cameras: the telescopic Optical Navigation Camera (ONC-T) onboard the Hayabusa2 spacecraft, and MapCam onboard the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) spacecraft, respectively. For Ryugu, we first detected objects with peak reflectance brighter by a factor of >1.5 than the surrounding area. Tatsumi et al. (2021) found two spectral groups among the bright boulders: S-type with an absorption near 1 µm and C/X-type with a flat spectrum. That study found 6 S-types and 15 C/X-types, and in this work we additionally find one S-type and ~70 C/X-types. We found that S-type bright boulders follow two parallel trends consistent with space weathering of ordinary chondrites. Fragments from projectiles suggest that Ryugu may not have formed directly from the original parent body, i.e., it is from a second or higher generation of collisional descendants (Sugimoto et al. in revision). For Bennu, we directly surveyed absorption near 1 µm, which is indicative of anhydrous silicates. We propose 77 objects of exogenic origin including 6 boulders previously reported by DellaGiustina et al. (2021). We find that proposed exogenic objects follow two mixing trends with respect to the average spectrum of Bennu (Tatsumi and Popescu et al. submitted). One trend can be explained by mixing with HED as discussed in DellaGiustina et al. (2021), and the other trend can be explained by mixing with another, olivine-rich composition. Near-infrared spectra also support the possibility of multiple compositions among exogenic objects on Bennu. Thus, similar to Ryugu, Bennu could represent a second or higher generation. Using high-resolution images, we found that more than half of the exogenic objects that we identified on Bennu have breccia-like or inclusion-like morphologies. We do not observe a correlation between morphology and spectral shape. Direct comparison of reflectance spectra of exogenic object spectra between Ryugu and Bennu suggests a compositional difference. Furthermore, the number density of exogenic objects > 0.5 m on Bennu is ~40 times that on Ryugu (Tatsumi and Popescu et al. submitted). Bennu exhibits much more contamination from exogenic materials than Ryugu, which likely reflects differences in impact conditions, such as impact velocity and impactor size.

E. Tatsumi↗

Laser Cutting of Anorthosite and Norite in Vacuum

Lasers have previously been evaluated to cut and drill through rock in high pressure and atmospheric conditions to support deep drilling for oil & gas, as well as breaking or cutting rock near the surface. This research evaluates using lasers to cut rocks in a lunar environment. Anorthosite and norite samples were cut in a rough vacuum (<1 Torr) environment using a continuous wave (CW) 2 kW laser. Power and cutting speed are varied to control the total power input. In total 30, 38mm cuts are performed with power levels ranging from 25% (525 W) to 100% (2100 W) and total energy inputs from 0.090 – 4.34 kJ/cm. The cuts are bisected and inspected with optical and scanning electron microscopy. The bisected areas are measured to determine the specific energy for material removal (J/mm 3 ) and the extent of the heat affected zone.

Laser Cutting↗

A Review of Recent Updates of Sea-Level Projections at Global and Regional Scales

Sea-level change (SLC) is a much-studied topic in the area of climate research, integrating a range of climate science disciplines, and is expected to impact coastal communities around the world. As a result, this field is rapidly moving, and the knowledge and understanding of processes contributing to SLC is increasing. Here, we discuss noteworthy recent developments in the projection of SLC contributions and in the global mean and regional sea-level projections. For the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to SLC, earlier estimates have been confirmed in recent research, but part of the source of this contribution has shifted from dynamics to surface melting. New insights into dynamic discharge processes and the onset of marine ice sheet instability increase the projected range for the Antarctic contribution by the end of the century. The contribution from both ice sheets is projected to increase further in the coming centuries to millennia. Recent updates of the global glacier outline database and new global glacier models have led to slightly lower projections for the glacier contribution to SLC (7-17 cm by 2100), but still project the glaciers to be an important contribution. For global mean sea-level projections, the focus has shifted to better estimating the uncertainty distributions of the projection time series, which may not necessarily follow a normal distribution. Instead, recent studies use skewed distributions with longer tails to higher uncertainties. Regional projections have been used to study regional uncertainty distributions, and regional projections are increasingly being applied to specific regions, countries, and coastal areas.

glaciers↗