SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “significant quantity”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 541 records · Page 30

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2002

Production and Performance of the InFOCmicronS 20-40 keV Graded Multilayer Mirror

The International Focusing Optics Collaboration for micron Crab Sensitivity (InFOC micronS) balloon-borne hard x-ray incorporates graded multilayer technology to obtain significant effective area at energies previously inaccessible to x-ray optics. The telescope mirror consists of 2040 segmented thin aluminum foils coated with replicated Pt/C multilayers. A sample of these foils was scanned using a pencil-beam reflectometer to determine, multilayer quality. The results of the reflectometer measurements demonstrate our capability to produce large quantity of foils while maintaining high-quality multilayers with a mean Nevot-Croce interface roughness of 0.5nm. We characterize the performance of the complete InFOC micronS telescope with a pencil beam raster scan to determine the effective area and encircled energy function of the telescope. The effective area of the complete telescope is 78, 42 and 22 square centimeters at 20 30 and 40 keV. respectively. The measured encircled energy fraction of the mirror has a half-power diameter of 2.0 plus or minus 0.5 arcmin (90% confidence). The mirror successfully obtained an image of the accreting black hole Cygnus X-1 during a balloon flight in July, 2001. The successful completion and flight test of this telescope demonstrates that graded-multilayer telescopes can be manufactured with high reliability for future x-ray telescope missions such as Constellation-X.

Berendse, F.↗

NASA NTRS1977

The Goddard Space Flight Center high efficiency cell development and evaluation program

Laboratory tests and flight experiments showed that solar cells can be produced in quantity, that they are suitable for space flight applications, and that the power produced ranged from 20 to 35% more than that of conventional cells. In a benign flight environment, the cells degraded at approximately the same rate as conventional cells. In synchronous orbit, the rate exceeded that of conventional cells, but high efficiency cells still showed significant power advantage after two years. Irradiation test results showed the voltage-temperature coefficients to be comparable to conventional cells. However, current-temperature coefficients were not only higher initially, but also increased significantly with irradiation. Although thin cells with good performance characteristics were made, significant problem areas pertinent to production were disclosed, particularly for cells with thickness of 0.100 mm or less. The overall program led to the use of advanced high efficiency cells on the International Sun-Earth Explorer solar panels.

Slifer, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The relationship of an integral wind shear hazard to aircraft performance limitations

The development and certification of airborne forward-looking wind shear detection systems has required a hazard definition stated in terms of sensor observable wind field characteristics. This paper outlines the definition of the F-factor wind shear hazard index and an average F-factor quantity, calculated over a specified averaging interval, which may be used to judge an aircraft's potential performance loss due to a given wind shear field. A technique for estimating airplane energy changes during a wind shear encounter is presented and used to determine the wind shear intensity, as a function of the averaging interval, that presents significant hazard to transport category airplanes. The wind shear hazard levels are compared to averaged F-factor values at various averaging intervals for four actual wind shear encounters. Results indicate that averaging intervals of about one kilometer could be used in a simple method to discern hazardous shears.

Lewis, M. S.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Cosmic Infrared Background and Early Galaxy Evolution

The cosmic infrared background (CIB) reflects the sum total of galactic luminosities integrated over the entire age of the universe. From its measurement the red-shifted starlight and dust-absorbed and re-radiated starlight of the CIB can be used to determine (or constrain) the rates of star formation and metal production as a function of time and deduce information about objects at epochs currently inaccessible to telescopic studies. This review discusses the state of current CIB measurements and the (mostly space-based) instruments with which these measurements have been made, the obstacles (the various foreground emissions) and the physics behind the CIB and its structure. Theoretical discussion of the CIB levels can now be normalized to the standard cosmological model narrowing down theoretical uncertainties. We review the information behind and theoretical modeling of both the mean (isotropic) levels of the CIB and their fluctuations. The CIB is divided into three broad bands: near-IR (NIR), mid-IR (MIR) and far-IR (FIR). For each of the bands we review the main contributors to the CIB flux and the epochs at which the bulk of the flux originates. We also discuss the data on the various quantities relevant for correct interpretation of the CIB levels: the star-formation history, the present-day luminosity function measurements, resolving the various galaxy contributors to the CIB, etc. The integrated light of all galaxies in the deepest NIR galaxy counts to date fails to match the observed mean level of the CIB, probably indicating a significant high-redshift contribution to the CIB. Additionally, Population III stars should have left a strong and measurable signature via their contribution to the CIB anisotropies for a wide range of their formation scenarios, and measuring the excess CIB anisotropies coming from high z would provide direct information on the epoch of the first stars.

Kashlinsky, Alexander↗

NASA NTRS2006

Direct Numerical Simulation of Transitional Multicomponent-Species Gaseous and Multicomponent-Liquid Drop-Laden Mixing

A model of multicomponent-liquid (MC-liquid) drop evaporation in a three-dimensional mixing layer is here exercised at larger Reynolds numbers than in a previous study, and transitional states are obtained. The gas phase is followed in an Eulerian frame and the multitude of drops is described in a Lagrangian frame. Complete coupling between phases is included with source terms in the gas conservation equations accounting for the drop/flow interaction in terms of drop drag, drop heating and species evaporation. The liquid composition, initially specified as a single-Gamma (SG) probability distribution function (PDF) depending on the molar mass is allowed to evolve into a linear combination of two SGPDFs, called the double-Gamma PDF (DGPDF). The compositions of liquid and vapor emanating from the drops are calculated through four moments of the DGPDFs, which are drop-specific and location-specific, respectively. The mixing layer is initially excited to promote the double pairing of its four initial spanwise vortices into an ultimate vortex in which small scales proliferate. Simulations are performed for four liquids of different compositions and the effect of the initial mass loading and initial free-stream gas temperature are explored. For reference, Simulations are also performed for gaseous multicomponent mixing layers for which the effect of Reynolds number is investigated. The results encompass examination of the global layer characteristics, flow visualizations and homogeneous-plane statistics at transition. Comparisons are performed with previous pre-transitional MC-liquid simulations and with transitional single-component (SC) liquid studies. It is found that MCC flows at transition, the classical energy cascade is of similar strength, but that the smallest scales contain orders of magnitude less energy than SC flows, which is confirmed by the larger viscous dissipation in the former case. Contrasting to pre-transitional MC flows, the vorticity and drop organization depend on the initial gas temperature, this being due to the drop/turbulence coupling. The vapor-composition mean molar mass and standard deviation distributions strongly correlate with the initial liquid-composition PDF; such a correlation only exists for the magnitude of the mean but not for that of the standard deviation. Unlike in pre-transitional situations, regions of large composition standard deviation no longer necessarily coincide with regions of large mean molar mass. The kinetic energy, rotational and composition characteristics, and dissipation are liquid specific and the variation among liquids is amplified with increasing free-stream gas temperature. Eulerian and Lagrangian statistics of gas-phase quantities show that the different. Observation framework may affect the perception of the flow characteristics. The gas composition, of which the first four moments are calculated, is shown to be close to, but distinct from a SGPDF. The PDF of the scalar dissipation rate is calculated for drop-laden layers and is shown to depart more significantly from the typically assumed Gaussian in gaseous flows than experimentally measured gaseous scalar dissipation rates, this being attributed to the increased heterogeneity due to drop/flow interactions.

tubulent multicompenent-species↗

NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the important uncertainties behind the selection of climate change metrics and their performance against more complex process-based crop model simulations, revealing a danger in relying only on long-term mean quantities for crop impact assessment.

Maize↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of Risks to Oxygen Systems from Particulate and Fiber Contaminants and Derivation of Cleanliness Requirements

It has been well documented in the literature that contamination within oxygen systems can create significant fire hazards. Cleanliness limits for nonvolatile residues, ranging from 10 to 500 milligrams per square meter, have been established for various industries and types of oxygen systems to reduce the risk of ignition of flammable organic films. Particulate cleanliness limits used for oxygen systems, however, vary considerably, notably within the aerospace industry. Maximum allowed particle size, quantity limits, and allocations for fibers or metallic particles are all variables seen in aerospace cleanliness limits. Particles are known to have the potential to ignite within oxygen systems and must be limited to prevent fires. Particulate contamination may also pose risks to the performance of oxygen systems that are unrelated to ignition hazards. An extensive literature search was performed to better understand the relative importance of particle ignition mechanisms versus other deleterious effects of particles on oxygen systems and to identify rationale for derivation of particulate cleanliness limits for specific systems. The identified risks of different types and sizes of particles and fibers were analyzed. This paper summarizes the risks identified and rationale that may be used to derive particulate cleanliness limits for specific oxygen systems.

Lowrey, Nikki M.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Statistical Characterization of 18650-Format Lithium-Ion Cell Thermal Runaway Energy Distributions

Effective thermal management systems, designed to handle the impacts of thermal runaway (TR) and to prevent cell-to-cell propagation, are key to safe operation of lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery assemblies. Critical factors for optimizing these systems include the total energy released during a single cell TR event and the fraction of the total energy that is released through the cell casing vs. through the ejecta material. A unique calorimeter was utilized to examine the TR behavior of a statistically significant number of 18650-format Li-ion cells with varying manufacturers, chemistries, and capacities. The calorimeter was designed to contain the TR energy in a format conducive to discerning the fractions of energy released through the cell casing vs. through the ejecta material. Other benefits of this calorimeter included the ability to rapidly test of large quantities of cells and the intentional minimization of secondary combustion effects. High energy (270 Wh/kg) and moderate energy (200 Wh/kg) 18650 cells were tested. Some of the cells had an imbedded short circuit (ISC) device installed to aid in the examination of TR mechanisms under more realistic conditions. Other variations included cells with bottom vent (BV) features and cells with thin casings (0.22 1/4m). After combining the data gathered with the calorimeter, a statistical approach was used to examine the probability of certain TR behavior, and the associated energy distributions, as a function of capacity, venting features, cell casing thickness and temperature.

Thermal Runaway Energy Distribution↗

NASA NTRS1977

Ramjet cost estimating handbook

The subject program was conducted for the purpose of generating cost information on ramjet engines and developing a methodology that could be employed to accurately predict production costs ramjet engines. The methodology addresses many different ramjet types, sizes and production quantities. The methodology determines the cost of individual modules of ramjet assemblies based on similarity of the modules to baseline components that are identified in a cost handbook. (There are typically around 20 basic components of a given ramjet to be costed.) The total cost of the engine is a summation of all the appropriate cost elements. A significant accomplishment of the program was the development of a large cost data base on many different configurations, materials of construction and variations in manufacturing processes. This data base should provide a good foundation on which to build other cost data as it becomes available.

Emmons, H. T.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Modeling of Convective-Stratiform Precipitation Processes: Sensitivity to Partitioning Methods and Numerical Advection Schemes

Six different convective-stratiform separation techniques, including a new technique that utilizes the ratio of vertical and terminal velocities, are compared and evaluated using two-dimensional numerical simulations of a tropical [Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE)] and midlatitude continental [Preliminary Regional Experiment for STORM-Central (PRESTORM)] squall line. The simulations are made using two different numerical advection schemes: 4th order and positive definite advection. Comparisons are made in terms of rainfall, cloud coverage, mass fluxes, apparent heating and moistening, mean hydrometeor profiles, CFADs (Contoured Frequency with Altitude Diagrams), microphysics, and latent heating retrieval. Overall, it was found that the different separation techniques produced results that qualitatively agreed. However, the quantitative differences were significant. Observational comparisons were unable to conclusively evaluate the performance of the techniques. Latent heating retrieval was shown to be sensitive to the use of separation technique mainly due to the stratiform region for methods that found very little stratiform rain. The midlatitude PRESTORM simulation was found to be nearly invariant with respect to advection type for most quantities while for TOGA COARE fourth order advection produced numerous shallow convective cores and positive definite advection fewer cells that were both broader and deeper penetrating above the freezing level.

Lang, Steve↗

NASA NTRS1975

A comparison of electric and magnetic field data from the OGO 6 spacecraft

Previous studies of OGO 6 electric-field data and magnetic-field magnitude observations have indicated a distinct dependence of disturbance characteristics on interplanetary-sector polarity. Examination of simultaneous data below 600 km over the summer polar cap shows that changes in electric-field patterns and the disturbance patterns in magnetic-field magnitude are highly correlated. This correlation extends to pattern shapes, boundary locations, and the amplitudes of the correlated quantities. In the winter hemisphere at altitudes above 800 km, correlations between boundaries exist, pattern correlations are present but not as strong as at low altitudes in summer, and amplitude correlations are essentially absent. These studies verify that below 600 km, the region of positive magnetic-field magnitude, from 2200 to 1000 magnetic local time (MLT), receives a significant contribution from both ionospheric and nonionospheric sources. Above 800 km, the nonionospheric sources dominate. These data are also consistent with the existence of a latitudinally broad current system at sunlit magnetic local times as the source of the negative-magnitude region between 1000 and 2200 MLT. In this region, broad structures in electric-field patterns and in magnetic-field magnitude patterns are highly correlated. Multiple peaks in the negative-magnitude, presumably identified with the multiple peaks in negative electric-field magnitude found by Langel (1973) in average surface data, occur when the electric-field pattern has multiple reversals near dusk.

Langel, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Magnetopause structure and the question of particle accessibility

A simple plane model of the magnetopause is used to address the question of particle accessibility. Particle motion in the current sheet region is analyzed, showing that the concept of gyromotion is useful even when the electric and magnetic fields vary significantly over the gyroradius, as long as the variation is perpendicular to the drift direction. The first adiabatic invariant for particle motion is defined in such a way that it is preserved in regions of large field gradients, provided that the gradients are in a direction primarily perpendicular to the particle drifts. This generalized invariant provides an adiabatically conserved quantity that can be used to characterize particles as they move from a source region through the drift region and into the magnetopause itself, helping to resolve the accessibility question. Some preliminary results are given for the magnetopause structure based on the location of particle guiding points.

Whipple, E. C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Waste management technology development and demonstration programs at Brookhaven National Laboratory

Two thermoplastic processes for improved treatment of radioactive, hazardous, and mixed wastes were developed from bench scale through technology demonstration: polyethylene encapsulation and modified sulfur cement encapsulation. The steps required to bring technologies from the research and development stage through full scale implementation are described. Both systems result in durable waste forms that meet current Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Environmental Protection Agency regulatory criteria and provide significant improvements over conventional solidification systems such as hydraulic cement. For example, the polyethylene process can encapsulate up to 70 wt pct. nitrate salt, compared with a maximum of about 20 wt pct. for the best hydraulic cement formulation. Modified sulfur cement waste forms containing as much as 43 wt pct. incinerator fly ash were formulated, whereas the maximum quantity of this waste in hydraulic cement is 16 wt pct.

Kalb, Paul D.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A New Aerodynamic Data Dispersion Method for Launch Vehicle Design

A novel method for implementing aerodynamic data dispersion analysis is herein introduced. A general mathematical approach combined with physical modeling tailored to the aerodynamic quantity of interest enables the generation of more realistically relevant dispersed data and, in turn, more reasonable flight simulation results. The method simultaneously allows for the aerodynamic quantities and their derivatives to be dispersed given a set of non-arbitrary constraints, which stresses the controls model in more ways than with the traditional bias up or down of the nominal data within the uncertainty bounds. The adoption and implementation of this new method within the NASA Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle Project has resulted in significant increases in predicted roll control authority, and lowered the induced risks for flight test operations. One direct impact on launch vehicles is a reduced size for auxiliary control systems, and the possibility of an increased payload. This technique has the potential of being applied to problems in multiple areas where nominal data together with uncertainties are used to produce simulations using Monte Carlo type random sampling methods. It is recommended that a tailored physics-based dispersion model be delivered with any aerodynamic product that includes nominal data and uncertainties, in order to make flight simulations more realistic and allow for leaner spacecraft designs.

Pinier, Jeremy T.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Use of MODIS Satellite Data to Evaluate Juniperus spp. Pollen Phenology to Support a Pollen Dispersal Model, PREAM, to Support Public Health Allergy Alerts

Juniperus spp. pollen is a significant aeroallergen that can be transported 200-600 km from the source. Local observations of Juniperus spp. phenology may not be consistent with the timing and source of pollen collected by pollen sampling instruments. Methods: The Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (DREAM)is a verified model for atmospheric dust transport modeling using MODIS data products to identify source regions and quantities of dust. We successfully modified the DREAM model to incorporate pollen transport (PREAM) and used MODIS satellite images to develop Juniperus ashei pollen input source masks. The Pollen Release Potential Source Map, also referred to as a source mask in model applications, may use different satellite platforms and sensors and a variety of data sets other than the USGS GAP data we used to map J. ashei cover type. MODIS derived percent tree cover is obtained from MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields (VCF) product (collection 3 and 4, MOD44B, 500 and 250 m grid resolution). We use updated 2010 values to calculate pollen concentration at source (J. ashei ). The original MODIS derived values are converted from native approx. 250 m to 990m (approx. 1 km) for the calculation of a mask to fit the model (PREAM) resolution. Results: The simulation period is chosen following the information that in the last 2 weeks of December 2010. The PREAM modeled near-surface concentrations (Nm-3) shows the transport patterns of J. ashei pollen over a 5 day period (Fig. 2). Typical scales of the simulated transport process are regional.

Luvall, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Range Safety Flight Elevation Limit Calculation Software

This program was developed to fill a need within the Wallops Flight Facility workflow for automation of the development of vertical plan limit lines used by flight safety officers during the conduct of expendable launch vehicle missions. Vertical plane present-position-based destruct lines have been used by range safety organizations at numerous launch ranges to mitigate launch vehicle risks during the early phase of flight. Various ranges have implemented data submittal and processing workflows to develop these destruct lines. As such, there is significant prior art in this field. The ElLimits program was developed at NASA's Wallops Flight Facility to automate the process for developing vertical plane limit lines using current computing technologies. The ElLimits program is used to configure launch-phase range safety flight control lines for guided missiles. The name of the program derives itself from the fundamental quantity that is computed - flight elevation limits. The user specifies the extent and resolution of a grid in the vertical plane oriented along the launch azimuth. At each grid point, the program computes the maximum velocity vector flight elevation that can be permitted without endangering a specified back-range location. Vertical plane x-y limit lines that can be utilized on a present position display are derived from the flight elevation limit data by numerically propagating 'streamlines' through the grid. The failure turn and debris propagation simulation technique used by the application is common to all of its analysis options. A simulation is initialized at a vertical plane grid point chosen by the program. A powered flight failure turn is then propagated in the plane for the duration of the so-called RSO reaction time. At the end of the turn, a delta-velocity is imparted, and a ballistic trajectory is propagated to impact. While the program possesses capability for powered flight failure turn modeling, it does not require extensive user inputs of vehicle characteristics (e.g., thrust and aerodynamic data), nor does it require reams of turn data after the traditional fashion of the Air Force ranges. The program requires a nominal trajectory table (time, altitude, range, velocity, and flight elevation) and makes heavy use of it to initialize and model a failure turn.

Lanzi, Raymond J↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development and Validation of a Slosh-Based Ullage Collapse Model

Ullage collapse modeling is an essential tool for the success of spacecraft powered by cryogenic propellants. The degree of ullage collapse can have a major impact on the design of cryogenic propellant tanks as well as the mission’s concept of operations. Additional commodities (e.g., helium gas for pressure control) and their quantities are dependent on the amount of heat transfer and phase change of propellants expected during flight. Currently, high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with heat transfer and phase change is the most accurate method for predicting ullage collapse. CFD simulations of this kind, however, can become very costly for problems requiring large domains, long simulation times, or significant liquid motion. Consequently, there is a need for a reduced order model to provide fast responses which can be used in engineering design decisions. The proposed numerical model is a nodal approach, augmented by outputs from CFD analyses that are generated rapidly and reliably. These outputs include transient values for liquid-vapor interface area, interface velocity, and liquid position using a volume of fluid (VoF) method. There are several benefits of combining a nodal approach with slosh predictions from CFD simulations: leveraging of the Loci/STREAM-VoF solver that has been validated in high-g and low-g environments, rapid modeling of VoF with isothermal propellant simplifications and relatively coarse meshes, and improved model predictions from the nodal tool. The nodal approach, informed by the slosh predictions from CFD, assumes uniform conditions in the liquid and gas domains. Modifications to account for temperature stratification in the liquid and gas may be implemented as a future improvement. Thermodynamic changes within the tank are solved at user-defined timesteps. First, impacts due to mass entering or leaving the control volume are captured. Second, heat transfer impacts are accounted for by tracking the volume of the gas which has been contacted by liquid in that timestep and rebalancing the internal energy. Finally, phase change is approximated using the area and velocity of the interface. The tank conditions are re-computed by conserving mass and energy. Calibration of the model to several test flights and experiments are required to baseline the predictive power and uncertainty. The final product will enable designers and engineers to create quick-turnaround predictions for ullage collapse and inform design feasibility.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗

NASA NTRS2009

Lunar Outpost Life Support Architecture Study Based on a High Mobility Exploration Scenario

As scenarios for lunar surface exploration and habitation continue to evolve within NASA s Constellation program, so must studies of optimal life support system architectures and technologies. This paper presents results of a life support architecture study based on a 2009 NASA scenario known as Scenario 12. Scenario 12 represents a consolidation of ideas from earlier NASA scenarios and includes an outpost near the Lunar South Pole comprised of three larger fixed surface elements and four attached pressurized rovers. The scenario places a high emphasis on surface mobility, with planning assuming that all four crewmembers spend roughly 50% of the time away from the outpost on 3-14 day excursions in two of the pressurized rovers. Some of the larger elements can also be mobilized for longer duration excursions. This emphasis on mobility poses a significant challenge for a regenerative life support system in terms of cost-effective waste collection and resource recovery across multiple elements, including rovers with very constrained infrastructure resources. The current study considers pressurized rovers as part of a distributed outpost life support architecture in both stand-alone and integrated configurations. A range of architectures are examined reflecting different levels of closure and distributed functionality. Different lander propellant scavenging options are also considered involving either initial conversion of residual oxygen and hydrogen propellants to water or initial direct oxygen scavenging. Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the sensitivity of results to volatile high-impact mission variables, including the quantity of residual lander propellants available for scavenging, the fraction of crew time away from the outpost on excursions, total extravehicular activity hours, and habitat leakage. Architectures are evaluated by estimating surpluses or deficits of water and oxygen per 180-day mission and differences in fixed and 10-year-total equivalent system mass (ESM) relative to a reference case. Results are presented based on current assumptions for Scenario 12 and based on Monte Carlo simulations with assumed probability distributions for the high-impact mission variables. The calculated probability of no water or oxygen resupply from Monte Carlo simulations provides a quantitative measure of system robustness that can be used for cost/benefit analyses to identify leading architecture candidates. Areas of technology improvement that are likely to have a significant impact are also suggested.

Lange, Kevin E.↗