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Automated Data Acquisition Software for National Instruments Hardware with Timed Acquisition, Real-Time Display and Spectrogram, and Data Redundancy. Current version is Version 7 of DataAcq.exe.RElease1.2.4.26.

This software automates the collection of waveform data on a timed schedule so that an operator does not need to be at the computer to initiate the collection of data sets.It provides real time display of up to 16 channels of data as a time display, frequency display, or frequency vs time (spectrogram) display. The software provides the ability to collect data sets of a user selected time length at a selected interval. This operation can be set to occur during a selected time interval during the day. This software provides the capability to write two copies of the data files simultaneously so that the data is backed up as collected. This software automates the collection of waveform data on a timed schedule so that an operator does not need to be at the computer to initiate the collection of data sets. It provides real time display of up to 16 channels of data as a time display, frequency display, or frequency vs time (spectrogram) display. The software provides the ability to collect data sets of a user selected time length at a selected interval. This operation can be set to occur during a selected time interval during the day. This software provides the capability to write two copies of the data files simultaneously so that the data is backed up as collected.

Wysor, Robert W↗

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods for Frequency Nadir Estimation in Power Systems: Preprint

An increasing penetration level of inverter-based renewable energy resources changes the inertia of power systems, posing challenges for maintaining the desired system frequency stability. An accurate frequency nadir estimation is crucial for power system operators to prepare preventive actions against large frequency excursions. In this paper, five machine learning methods - linear regression, gradient boosting, support vector regression, an artificial neural network, and XGBoost - are applied to two different sets of preprocess data for the prediction of the frequency nadir in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council 240-bus system with high renewable penetration levels. The training and testing data sets are collected by extensive generation scheduling simulations on the Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling (MIDAS) toolbox. Numerical results show that all five machine learning methods can achieve high performance accuracy for power system nadir frequency estimation. Among them, the gradient boosting and the XGBoost are clear winners by providing the best prediction accuracy.

data driven↗

Low-GWP Refrigerants Status and Outlook

Refrigeration - including air conditioning (AC) – contributes substantially to the modern life of the 21st century and its economy. The food cold chain, air conditioning, healthcare and energy are examples of sectors for which refrigeration is indispensable. About 5 billion refrigeration systems – of different types and sizes– operate worldwide in different applications [1]. The dominant share of equipment providing refrigeration operate on the vapor-compression-cycle principle and use fluorocarbon refrigerants. Concerns about the environmental safety have become the driving force for refrigerant changes within the last 35 years. The phased-out schedule of stratospheric-ozone-depleting fluids was first formulated by the Montreal Protocol (MP) in 1987 and was made more stringent during the follow-up international meetings [2]. The affected chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) refrigerants were largely replaced by hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).The 2016 Kigali Amendment to the MP [3] responses to the concerns about the Earth climate change. The refrigeration and AC sectors are attributed with about 7.8 % of global greenhouse gas emissions [4]. This contribution comes in the form of direct effect, which is related to refrigerant emissions from refrigeration systems (37 %), and in the form of indirect effect, which is related to CO2 emissions from fossil fuel power plants producing electricity to power refrigeration systems (63 %) [4]. The Kigali Amendment aims at reducing the direct effect. The effect a given molecule has on the climate change is quantified in a simplified manner by its Global Warming Potential (GWP), a relative index referencing the effect produced to that of the same mass of carbon dioxide released to the atmosphere. By definition, GWP of carbon dioxide is equal to one.While HFC refrigerants have on average a lower GWP than the CFCs and HCFCs they replaced, they are still potent greenhouse gases (GHGs). The Kigali Amendment phases down the use of HFCs by imposing a schedule for reducing a weighted GWP value to be implemented by a country through the year 2047 (Figure 1). It provides four paths depending on the country location and category assigned in the MP, and also prescribes a method for establishing the baseline consumption used for calculating GWP reductions. For developing countries, it is expected to bring the weighed GWP across all refrigeration applications down to about 300 from the baseline value of about 2000. The implementation of Kigali Amendment aims at reducing the future warming due to HFCs from the range of 0.3 °C to 0.5 °C to less than 0.1 °C [5]. While this reduction may seem to be small, it must be viewed in the context of the 2015 Paris Agreement [6], which calls for holding global warming to well below 2 °C and pursuing to limit global warming to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels [6]. Considering that average global temperatures reached 1 °C above pre-industrial levels for the first time in 2015 [7], the Earth is already within 1 °C of the “2 °C limit”.The low-GWP requirement narrows the pool of fluids that can be considered for application as a refrigerant [8]. This Informatory Note discusses low-GWP refrigerant options for major applications and presents their selection merits.

Yana Motta, Samuel↗

Validation of HVAC Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation for Advanced Control Strategies in Smart Homes: Preprint

Residences with smart thermostats can use advanced control strategies to manage their cooling/heating demand, but it is difficult to evaluate optimal control strategies for flexible heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in a traditional laboratory setting. The HVAC hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) system combines physical HVAC equipment and a physical thermostat with a simulated house to enable realistic operation of the hardware in any climate. This HIL platform allows researchers to evaluate advanced control strategies for homes with different construction or vintage types, as well as different climates and occupancy schedules. To demonstrate the capabilities of the HVAC HIL system, experimental results with a SEER 16, HSPF 9.5, 3 ton single-speed air source heat pump are validated against past field data collected from a heavily instrumented, unoccupied, retrofit house located in Sacramento, California. Three different cooling strategies are recreated in the HVAC HIL platform, including two different pre-cooling schedules that were designed to shift energy use away from the evening peak. The room temperatures, heat pump energy use, and run time show good agreement between the field data and HIL experimental results for three strategies.

cooling strategies↗

Virtual Engineering Software Framework for Integrated Biomass Conversion Modeling

This presentation covers the design and implementation of a software tool to systematically connect computational models of unit operations to simulate an integrated process of low-temperature conversion of biomass to fuel. This virtual engineering (VE) software was designed with the overarching goal of connecting unit models written in various programming languages and requiring different computational resources within a single, flexible framework. The models and features currently considered for the VE library include mechanistic models for pretreatment, enzymatic hydrolysis, and aerobic bioreaction; high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for enzymatic hydrolysis and aerobic bioreaction; and the capability to perform techno-economic analyses (TEA) using Aspen Plus, a commercial software package. The CFD models require access to high-performance computing (HPC) resources, so in addition to handling multiple programming languages and interfaces, the VE software must also be capable of interacting with an HPC scheduler to submit, run, and post-process jobs. Using the Python programming language, a new VE software package has been developed that contains functionality to manage the input-output communication between various unit models, schedule simulations to run on NREL's HPC and analyze those results, and interface with existing TEA software workflows. A Jupyter-notebook GUI was also created to solicit user input and provide documentation. In cases where multiple models for a particular unit-operation exist, selection between models is accomplished through a simple checkbox, with the appropriate inputs and outputs being parsed and converted seamlessly in the background. Each operation makes use of a different programming language, but the flow of information from pretreatment to enzymatic hydrolysis to bioreaction is managed with an intuitive, centralized file-communication strategy. In this talk, the programming approach and implementation details of the notebook are presented for multiple possibilities of the conversion process, including a demonstration of the ability to manage HPC resources. Additionally, an example of a sensitivity study of treatment parameters governing the overall conversion outcome is shown which highlights the ease of defining new problems using the VE Notebook workflow and leads into a discussion of ongoing work to enable outer-loop optimization studies.

biofuel↗

PRODUCTION OF GLASS-TO-METAL SEALS USING ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING TECHNIQUES

Glass-to-metal (GtM) seals are hermetic barriers between glass and metal components, often used in the electronic and vacuum industries. Creating the seals traditionally requires heating all the components to the glass melting temperature, where the glass will flow and bond to the metal. Due to the manufacturing constraints of the individual components and sealing conditions there are geometric and material restrictions. Additive manufacturing techniques were used to make GtM seals to reduce these restrictions. Hermetic, single pin seals were produced using printed metal shells, by selective laser melting (SLM), and digital light processing (DLP) printed glass preforms. Glass preforms were printed with photosensitive resin mixed with a silicate sealing glass powder in a 1:2 weight ratio. Thermal analysis, TGA/DSC, and screening experiments were used to determine an organic removal schedule. Video techniques determined a sintering schedule by producing a densification curve at different isothermal holds which were fit with a viscous sintering model. Single pin seals were also produced use a laser assisted manufacturing (LAM) process as an alternative to the conventional furnace sealing process. A Nd:YAG laser was focused on a solid glass preform, heating the glass to form the glass-metal bond. The sealing glass was doped with a transition metal oxide, Fe2O3 or CuO, to increase absorption of the laser wavelength. The interface of hermetic LAM seals were analyzed using electron microscopy, compared to conventional prepared seals, finding a reduction of interfacial morphologies.

Read, Aaron Reece↗

Development of Analysis Methods that Integrate Numeric and Textual Equipment Reliability Data

Within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway is performing collaborative research on the development and deployment of technologies designed to assist operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) to reduce operating costs improve plant reliability and availability. One of the RISA research areas is focusing on the development of methods and tools designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules, optimal maintenance postures for plant structures, systems, and components [SSCs]) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available SSC health data. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project targets this research area by creating a direct bridge between component equipment reliability (ER) data and system engineer decision making regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. In this respect, one challenge that NPP system engineers are facing is that the amount of ER data being continuously generated is not only extremely large in size, but it comes in different forms: textual (e.g., condition or maintenance reports) and numeric (e.g., generated by monitoring systems). All these data elements provide them with valuable insights and information regarding: 1) the discovery of anomalous behaviors or degradation trends, 2) the identification of the possible causes behind such behaviors/trends, and 3) the prediction of their direct consequences. However, several challenges have proved to be roadblocks to this process. While some of these challenges are technical in nature (i.e., data are often distributed over several physical servers/databases), others are conceptual in nature: data elements come in different formats (e.g., numeric or textual), and measured values have different scales (e.g., vibration spectra and oil temperature). The activities performed by the RIAM project during FY23 directly tackles the need to simultaneously integrate the analysis of ER data in all its forms, numeric and textual. Note that such task has never been performed before due to the complexity of the systems under consideration but, most importantly, because of the technical challenges behind the harmonization of ER data formats and the lack of adequate computational methods to analyze them. Our approach borrows ideas and concepts from the medical field where integration of several data sources is vital to assist medical practitioners to perform correct diagnosis and indicate optimal treatments. In our view a NPP asset is equivalent to a patient in a medical context. The main difference is the complexity of a human body is a magnitude more complex when compared to typical assets commonly present in NPPs (e.g., centrifugal pumps, or motor operated valves). This simplifies our first requirement when analyzing heterogenous ER data formats: to put data into “context”. Context is here intended as the additional piece of information that is needed by ER data analysis tools to understand what these data elements are referring to, i.e., which king of knowledge they are generating. In our context, this knowledge can be translated into models that capture the form and functional architecture of assets/systems, their dependencies, and how they interact. These models actually emulate the knowledge that that NPP system engineers possess about assets and systems; this is their key of success when analyzing ER data, their challenge is ability to handle large amount of data. Here, we employ model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to represent and capture their architecture and functional, i.e. cause-effect, relations. Then, ER data elements are processed by identifying first of all which elements of the developed MBSE elements they are referring to. For numeric ER data this task is fairly easy since it is possible to precisely pinpoint what MBSE elements the corresponding sensor are observing (e.g., bearing temperature of a centrifugal pump). Task is much harder for textual data since the information contained in issue or maintenance reports needs to “be understood” by a computational tool. Here we called this process as “knowledge extraction”. Once again, we borrow the experience in the medical field where methods to extract knowledge from textual data have been developed in the past decade. The missing element for us is the availability of a complete dictionary of NPP related concepts (in addition to the MBSE models presented earlier) that can put “text into context”. In FY23, such dictionary has been developed along with all the computational elements required for knowledge extraction. Lastly, once numeric and textual ER data elements have been processed and “understood”, then the last step is the discovery of possible cause-effect relations among them. This is performed by observing if a logical connection through the MBSE models exists, and if the

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

EVs@Scale Next-Gen Profiles - Fleet Utilization 2023

As U.S. fleet operators begin transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs), critical questions arise regarding how to manage this shift without disrupting fleet operations or placing undue stress on the electric grid. A major challenge for fleets is maintaining effective operational schedules while accommodating charging requirements, particularly with high-power charging (HPC) infrastructure, which presents grid stability concerns for utilities. Proposed solutions such as charging substations, megawatt charging systems (MCS), and smart charge management systems (SCMS) offer potential pathways forward, but their effectiveness depends on alignment with real-world fleet behavior and operational constraints. This report investigates the charging and utilization behavior of EV and EVSE fleets actively employing HPC technologies by conducting detailed case study analyses based on telematics data. A suite of predefined metrics—covering charging, routing, and other operational behaviors—is developed to evaluate the impact of fleet activities on grid infrastructure and identify opportunities for optimization. Results highlight variations in charging behavior across fleets, such as weekday versus weekend usage, diurnal charging trends, and the role of operational predictability in enabling SCMS effectiveness. While SCMS can help lower costs and improve energy efficiency for fleets with stable schedules, they may be insufficient for fleets with highly variable or long-haul operations, which may require more robust solutions like MCS. Visualization of aggregated hourly energy metrics reveals that while fleet behaviors are diverse, there are common temporal patterns that could inform infrastructure planning and energy management. These insights emphasize the need for fleet-specific charging strategies that minimize grid impact while supporting reliable fleet operations. Additionally, the report underscores the broader economic stakes of electrification, particularly in high-value markets such as freight, where misaligned transitions could stall EV adoption. By examining current EV and EVSE fleet deployments using predetermined standardized metrics, this study offers a foundation for developing technologies and operational frameworks that support scalable, grid-compatible electrification across a variety of fleet types while establishing a baseline understanding of operational behaviors. In doing so, we aim to ensure that future charging solutions reflect actual fleet needs and grid constraints—an essential step toward maintaining operational continuity and achieving a successful transition to electric fleet operations.

Charging↗

PSI/J: A Portable Interface for Submitting, Monitoring, and Managing Jobs

It is generally desirable for high-performance computing (HPC) applications to be portable between HPC systems, for example to make use of more performant hardware, make effective use of allocations, and to co-locate compute jobs with large datasets. Unfortunately, moving scientific applications between HPC systems is challenging for various reasons, most notably that HPC systems have different HPC schedulers. We introduce PSI/J, a job management abstraction API intended to simplify the construction of software components and applications that are portable over various HPC scheduler implementations. We argue that such a system is both necessary and that no viable alternative currently exists. We analyze similar notable APIs and attempt to determine the factors that influenced their evolution and adoption by the HPC community. We base the design of PSI/J on that analysis. We describe how PSI/J has been integrated in three workflow systems and one application, and also show via experiments that PSI/J imposes minimal overhead.

Hategan, Mihael↗

Latest Developments in PM Systems and Methods and their Application to WM Projects - 20364

How do you improve on an industry that is well established yet often misses the mark on key metrics demonstrating effective planning and execution of project scope, schedule and budget? With the increased complexity of DOE projects relative to either poorly kept records of what wastes are stored or the lack of specific knowledge relative to the waste concentrations/quantities, this is a question continually asked and investigated by many. In fact, in 2017, the GAO's report to Congress indicated that although the DOE has made some progress on its monitoring effectiveness and demonstrating progress criteria, these goals were not met and there needs to be more improvement and monitoring. This paper will offer some insights into the latest developments in project management methodologies and the possible application of these to waste management projects. Traditional data generated via a project schedule that utilizes critical path methodology (CPM) and additional earned value management (EVM) data needs to be accurate and enable the project manager to better understand the probability of project success. Although this data has readily been available on most large-scale projects, success as measured by various stakeholder groups including the client, project team, regulators, etc. is less than optimal. Therefore, an urgent need exists to explore how traditional project data (CPM and EVM) coupled with new methodologies allows for better planning and execution by the project team. Many new approaches/methodologies can even be used to predict the success of options prior to full implementation on the actual project. Three approaches/methodologies will be discussed: - Artificial Intelligence; - Change Management; - Blend of Traditional Management (Gantt chart) and Agile Methodologies. As market forces change, so will the direction of project management. The days of 'one size fits all' are no longer valid. A combination of predictive and adaptive approaches in the management of projects is essential to enable execution of project deliverables on time, under budget, and within the contractual scope. This paper is intended to provide the reader with insight to the close relationship of project management trends and business management trends, and to provoke critical thinking about what it means to align project management strategy with an environment of non-stop innovation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Assessment of Cold Spraying Mild-Steel Powder onto Mild-Steel Substrate for Development of Waste Tank Repair System - 20515

Infrastructure for nuclear waste storage and processing (e.g., waste tanks, transfer pipelines, evaporators) at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site has been in service well beyond its original design life. Past corrosion control methods at Hanford for waste tanks have not been fully successful, as evidenced by leaks forming in tank AY-102, the first double-shell tank (DST) constructed, and significant degradation detected in the primary tanks of AP-102 and AY-101. Failure of infrastructure components can pose a significant risk to the environment, worker safety, and project schedules. Therefore, remotely deployable methods for repairing and extending the service life of the existing tank waste infrastructure are needed. Cold spray has been identified as a potential technique for performing in situ repairs and material buildup for life extension of waste storage and processing infrastructure. Cold-spray repair methods and technology are well-established and are used extensively by industry and the military for making repairs using dissimilar materials. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is evaluating the process of making repairs using mild-steel powder applied to a mild-steel substrate to minimize the galvanic corrosion potential. This paper presents the initial results for a feasibility ('go/no-go') assessment as to whether low-density deposits with sound metallurgic bonds, to build-back steel plate material, can be achieved using existing commercial cold-spray equipment. An assessment of steel-on-steel deposit is necessary to determine if cold spray is a viable candidate for DST carbon steel plate restoration/repair and thus DST service life extension. Powder properties and preparation requirements have been investigated and operating conditions and parameters for depositing a cold-spray buildup of mild steel on a mild-steel substrate have been determined. Soundness of metallurgic bonding as a function of the operating parameters exercised and results from applying cold spray to lay a deposit over simulated small-diameter flaws in 1/2-inch mild-steel plate are presented. Application of in situ cold-spray repair to the DOE complex has the potential to reduce cost and schedule impacts associated with component failures and the need to procure and construct replacement infrastructure. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

02-16 Digital Engineering

48% of large projects finish on budget 8.5% of large projects finish on budget and on schedule 0.5% finish on budget and schedule, while delivering the expected benefits/promises Nuclear related infrastructure is one of the worst offenders

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Transportation and Systems Analysis Collaborations in Support of a Federal Consolidated Interim Storage Facility

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Integrated Waste Management (IWM) program under the Office of Nuclear Energy is planning for the future transportation, storage, and eventual disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) from nuclear power plant sites across the United States. To better enable informed decision-making regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the IWM program has been sponsoring the development and application of system analysis tools capable of analyzing various options for managing SNF and HLW. With these tools, integrated waste management system (IWMS) architecture analyses are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive nuclear waste management system that considers all major back-end aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). System analyses and assessments typically use these modeling and simulation tools to investigate implications of changes in various assumptions and parameters such as acceptance rates, receipt logic, facility capacities and capabilities, use of standardized canisters, start and stop dates of facilities, etc. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based simulation toolkit that is used for a system-level simulation and analysis focused on SNF management in the United States. An analyst using NGSAM has the ability to define several factors like the number of storage facilities, capacity at each facility, transportation schedules, shipment rates, and other conditions. NGSAM’s primary purpose is to provide a system analyst with capabilities to model the IWMS and gain insights into SNF and HLW management alternatives including the impact of system choices, associated cost estimates, and development of integrated yet flexible approaches. IWM is also developing the Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation (START). START is a web-based geospatial tool developed to provide visualization and initial evaluation of transportation options associated with future SNF and HLW shipment planning and operations. This includes characterizing safety, economic, and environmental conditions on and in proximity to shipment origins as well as along prospective transportation routes. Information from the START tool can be presented/shared as maps, graphics, geospatial files, and tabular form to enable easy data representation and export functionality. The system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams had been working closely for several years before formalizing this collaboration. START provides the SNF routing information for use in NGSAM. System analysts use the NGSAM tool to generate results (schedule, costs, infrastructure acquisitions, shipment rates, etc.). Subject-matter experts and system analysts work together to inform how NGSAM should model the waste management system. Specifically, this paper discusses the collaborations between the system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams and their accomplishments over the past year. Some examples of these efforts include calibrating and adding data to the START output files to meet NGSAM needs, gaining a better understanding of START data used in NGSAM, as well as how updates in START data could result in an improved NGSAM analysis. Detailed examples of various tasks that have been performed by the team will be discussed in the full paper. Continued efforts in this direction are expected in the coming years.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Transportation and System Analysis Collaborations in Support of a Federal Consolidated Interim Storage Facility

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Integrated Waste Management (IWM) program under the Office of Nuclear Energy is planning for the future transportation, storage, and eventual disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) from nuclear power plant and waste custodian sites across the United States. To better enable informed decision-making regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the IWM program has been sponsoring the development and application of system analysis tools capable of analyzing various options for managing SNF and HLW. With these tools, integrated waste management system (IWMS) architecture analyses are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive nuclear waste management system that considers all major back-end aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). System analyses and assessments typically use these modeling and simulation tools to investigate implications of changes in various assumptions and parameters such as acceptance rates, receipt logic, facility capacities and capabilities, use of standardized canisters, start and stop dates of facilities, etc. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based simulation toolkit that is used for a system-level simulation and analysis focused on SNF management in the United States. NGSAM’s primary purpose is to provide a system analyst with capabilities to model the IWMS and gain insights into SNF and HLW management alternatives including the impact of system choices, associated cost estimates, and development of integrated yet flexible approaches. An analyst using NGSAM can define several factors like the number of storage facilities, capacity at each facility, transportation schedules, shipment rates, and other conditions. IWM is also developing the Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation (START). START is a web-based geospatial tool developed to provide the visualization and initial evaluation of transportation options associated with future SNF and HLW shipment planning and operations. This includes characterizing safety, economic, and environmental conditions at and in proximity to shipment origins as well as along prospective transportation routes. Information from the START tool can be presented/shared as maps, graphics, geospatial files, and tabular form to enable easy data representation and export functionality. The system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams have been working closely for several years before formalizing this collaboration. START provides the SNF transportation routing information for use in NGSAM. System analysts use the NGSAM tool to generate results (schedule, costs, infrastructure acquisitions, shipment rates, etc.). Subject-matter experts and system analysts work together to inform how NGSAM should model the waste management system. Specifically, this paper discusses the collaborations between the system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams and their accomplishments over the past year. Some examples of these efforts include calibrating and adding data to the START output files to meet NGSAM needs, gaining a better understanding of START data used in NGSAM as well as how updates in START data could result in an improved NGSAM analysis. Detailed examples of various tasks that have been performed by the team will be discussed in the full paper. Continued efforts in this direction are expected in the coming years.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Digital Twin Enabling Technologies for Online Condition Monitoring of Nuclear Power Plant Components

Online condition monitoring is an area of active research that may enable improved scheduling, maintenance, and safety of nuclear power plant components, reducing unnecessary derate while simultaneously improving operational capacity. Digital twins are one avenue to conduct online condition monitoring and are currently being explored by national laboratories and universities alike. Digital twins for online condition monitoring are, in essence, state concurrent models that emulate a physical process which predicts a parameter and compares it against a measured value. However, digital twins may also provide additional insights by combining and interpreting various sources of information. These insights may be used for preventative maintenance scheduling optimization or early fault detection and are projected to be valuable for meeting requirements under 10 CFR 50.55a. However, digital twin technologies are still under significant development; quantifying model uncertainties, improving unique fault identification, and multimodal sensor fusion are some areas under investigation. Therefore, in this work, we discuss and review the various enabling technologies, in the form of advanced sensors, instrumentation, and modelling methods, that may be used to implement and enhance digital twins for online condition monitoring. A potential use case for pump-motors is presented to demonstrate how these various pieces of enabling digital twin technologies may integrated together for online condition monitoring. Challenges and opportunities associated with the pump-motor digital twin enabling technologies are also identified and discussed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Circular Economy for Photovoltaics in Service of Energy Transition

The challenge of energy transition is immediate and immense; current projections target 75 TW of photovoltaics (PV) capacity by 2050. While any transition to renewable energy technology is preferable to the current fossil-based system, it is ideal to improve the sustainability of PV to minimize negative environmental and social impacts. Circular economy (CE) has been proposed as a method to improve the sustainability of PV, especially for emerging materials like perovskites. CE is a set of actions, principles, and systems which aim to design out waste and keep products and materials in use, to reduce environmental impacts and enable sustainable development. At the most basic level, CE is "reduce, reuse, recycle", the R-actions, in ranked order. CE of a PV technology can be metricized in a variety of ways, such as the Material Circularity Indicator (Smith and Jones, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2019) or recycling rates. Unfortunately, standard CE metrics have several shortcomings for measuring renewable energy technologies in the context of deployment for energy transition (Figge 2018, Saidani 2019): 1) Only measure mass flows; 2) De-prioritization of the use phase in favor of mass circularity when scoring; and 3) Tight focus on a single product scale The use phase and energy flows of PV are key to energy transition, and therefore need to be quantified. Additionally, correlating product-scale to system-scale is necessary for quantifying the environmental impacts of energy transition. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) can address some of these concerns, but also focuses on a single product scale and has trouble capturing the dynamics of system-scale energy transition, such as the interaction of module lifetime with manufacturing demands for energy transition deployment schedules. Therefore, we developed an open-source Python-based system dynamics model to quantify the mass, energy and carbon impacts of CE R-actions for PV technologies in the energy transition; PV in the CE (PV ICE) (Ovaitt & Mirletz 2021). The tool captures supply chains from material extraction through end of life, incorporating 5 circular end of life pathways. PV ICE takes in any evolving bill of materials, module properties and deployment schedule to support researchers and decision makers with data-backed insights. In this work, we quantify and compare proposed CE sustainable PV module designs and lifecycle management strategies, spanning currently commercialized technologies, government and industry technology targets, and several low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) emerging PV technologies, including perovskites. Our analyses capture the projected evolutions of lifetime, efficiency and material circularity of these PV technologies, as well as their material supply chains. Our analyses emphasize the importance of examining a suite of metrics to identify priorities and tradeoffs, and inform design or lifecycle management decisions holistically. Previous analyses have demonstrated the central importance of PV module lifetime to support energy transition while minimizing impacts. High levels of material circularity (>90%) enable minimizing lifecycle wastes, can reduce virgin material demands if paired with improving efficiency, but demonstrate tradeoffs in energy return on investment. In the fervor of new material and technology development, it is important to remember that CE is not the end goal; decarbonization and energy transition are the end goal. CE should be used in service to improve the sustainability of PV, and R-actions evaluated for their usefulness and efficacy to this end.

carbon↗

Impact of Hydrological Data on Power System Operational Studies: Preprint

Hydropower is expected to play an important role in maintaining grid reliability and flexibility as the share of of variable renewable energy increases. While the current hydropower operational models have been studied and used widely, they haven't been updated for decades to meet new performance standards. For example, current steady state and dynamic models often neglect hydrological conditions, which may lead to unrealistic expectations when relying on hydropower for energy and ancillary services. To study this impact, a multi-timescale hydrological model was created by leveraging the National Renewable Energy Laboratory-developed Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamics and Scheduling (MIDAS) tool. Using MIDAS, we compare the impact of considering hydrological conditions in a day-ahead unit commitment (DAUC) schedule on the reduced 240-bus Western Interconnect (WI) test system under winter and summer case studies. We show that neglecting current hydrological conditions of hydropower plants in power system models can lead to an overestimation of hydropower capabilities, which could lead to power balancing issues. For example, power system DAUC simulation results of our reduced test system show that in the case where hydrological conditions are not considered in the model, an approximate 31% overestimation of hydropower capabilities occurs in the summer case and approximately 60% occurs in the winter case compared to what is available. Additionally, results show an underestimation of WI day-ahead power system generation costs by approximately $54M - $80M in the weekly summer scenario and $116M - $126M in the weekly winter scenario. This analysis helps to underscore the importance of considering hydrological data in power system operational studies.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗

Preventive Power Outage Estimation Based on A Novel Scenario Clustering Strategy: Preprint

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events is challenging the power grid operation. In front of the extreme weather, the system operator is responsible for estimating the power outage and scheduling the restoration resources. This paper proposes an outage evaluation framework to identify the possible unserved load profiles, vulnerable areas, and mobile energy adequacy. The predicted vulnerable lines of an outage prediction model tool are utilized to generate numerous faulted line scenarios. Next, each scenario's nodal unserved load profile is obtained by solving a three-phase restoration model that considers the schedule of repair crews and mobile energy resources. Then, a novel scenario clustering strategy is developed to cluster the unserved load profiles into multiple representative ones for straightforward analysis. Finally, case studies on a distribution system evaluate the damage level brought by extreme weather and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scenario clustering strategy.

mobile energy resources↗