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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Scenario Documentation: Standard Performance Heat Pump Rooftop Unit With New Windows

Building on a 3-year effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock (TM) and ComStock (TM) models, this work produces national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual energy consumption (at subhourly resolution) of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility end-use load shapes that cover high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to various "what-if" scenarios that can be applied to buildings. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building (or collection of buildings) and a building with an energy efficiency or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step, as well as annual aggregations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

National Transmission Planning Study - Chapter 5: Stress Analysis for 2035 Scenarios

The National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study) is presented as a collection of six chapters, each of which is listed next. The NTP Study was led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Grid Deployment Office, in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Chapter 5: Stress Analysis for 2035 Scenarios (this chapter) outlines how the future transmission expansions perform under stress tests.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Agricultural crop production by county - mature-market medium scenario

This dataset contains data on agricultural crop production by county from 2022 to 2041. The agricultural crop in this dataset includes barley, biomass sorghum, corn, cotton, energy cane, eucalyptus, grain sorghum, hay, miscanthus, oats, pine, poplar, rice, soybean, switchgrass, wheat, and willow. The dataset was obtained from the database of the BT23 (Davis et al., 2024) for the mature-market medium scenario with biomass market prices from $30 to $130 per dry ton.

agricultural crop↗
DOE OSTI2026

Agricultural residue production by county - mature-market medium scenario

This dataset contains data on agricultural residue production by county from 2022 to 2041. The agricultural residue includes barley straw, corn stover, oats straw, sorghum stubble, and wheat straw. The dataset was obtained from the database of the BT23 (Davis et al., 2024) for the mature-market medium scenario with biomass market prices from $50 to $130 per dry ton. For access to this dataset, please use the contact form and indicate the dataset by name.

agricultural residues↗
DOE OSTI2024

Agricultural crop and residue production by county - mature-market medium scenario at $70

This dataset contains data on agricultural crop and residue production by county from 2022 to 2041. The agricultural crop in this dataset includes barley, biomass sorghum, corn, cotton, energy cane, eucalyptus, grain sorghum, hay, miscanthus, oats, pine, poplar, rice, soybean, switchgrass, wheat, and willow, and the agricultural residue includes barley straw, corn stover, oats straw, sorghum stubble, and wheat straw. The dataset was obtained from the database of the BT23 (Davis et al., 2024) for the mature-market medium scenario with biomass market prices of up to $70 per dry ton.

agricultural production↗
DOE OSTI2025

Agricultural crop and residue production by county - near-term scenario

This dataset contains data on agricultural crop and residue production by county in 2030. The agricultural crops in this dataset include barley, corn, cotton, grain sorghum, hay, oats, rice, soybeans, and wheat. The agricultural residues include barley straw, corn stover, oats straw, sorghum stubble, and wheat straw. The dataset was obtained from the database of the BT23 (Davis et al.,2024) for the near-term scenario with biomass market prices of up to $70 per dry ton.

agricultural crop↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global Land Use under SSP-RCP scenarios

This dataset includes global land use projections at 0.05-degree resolution under 15 SSP-RCP scenarios in the 21st century, produced by GCAM and Demeter and forced by five global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Contemporary and Future-Scenario Substantial-Precipitation Events in the Missouri River Basin Using Object-Oriented Analysis

The Missouri River Basin is the largest single river basin in the United States, and, as such, it plays an important role in natural ecosystems as well as the country’s economy, through agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and transportation. Episodes of heavy precipitation can have a substantial negative impact on all these aspects of the basin, so understanding how well these episodes are simulated and projected to change in the future climate is important. We analyzed contemporary and projected mid-century behavior of heavy-precipitation episodes using an object-oriented analysis to diagnose short-term (≥5-day) and extended-period (≥30-day) events with substantial precipitation, using PRISM gridded, observed precipitation and RegCM4 regional-climate simulations that used outputs from two different GCMs for boundary conditions. The simulations were produced for the North American portion of the CORDEX program. A 25 km grid was used for the simulations and for aggregated PRISM precipitation. Overall, the simulated contemporary-climate events compared favorably with the PRISM events’ frequency and duration. The simulated event areas tended to be larger than the areas in the PRISM events, suggesting that the effective resolution of the simulations is greater than 25 km. Event areas and durations change little going from contemporary to scenario climate. The short-term events increase in frequency by an amount commensurate with the increase in mean precipitation simulated for the basis. However, the extended-term events showed little change in frequency, despite the average precipitation increase. Roughly half the extended-period events overlapped with at least one short-term event in both the observations and the simulations. Extended-period events that overlap a short-term event generally have larger areas and longer durations compared to their counterparts with no overlapping short-term events. Understanding the climate dynamics yielding the two types of extended-period events could be useful for assessing future changes in the Missouri River Basin’s heavy precipitation events and their impact.

Fisel, Brandon J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Strong Local Passivity in Unconventional Scenarios: A New Protocol for Amplified Quantum Energy Teleportation

Quantum energy teleportation (QET) has been proposed to overcome the restrictions of strong local passivity (SLP) and to facilitate energy transfer in quantum systems. Traditionally, QET has only been considered under strict constraints, including the requirements that the initial state be the ground state of an interacting Hamiltonian, that Alice’s measurement commute with the interaction terms, and that entanglement be present. These constraints have significantly limited the broader applicability of QET protocols. In this work, we demonstrate that SLP can arise beyond these conventional constraints, establishing the necessity of QET in a wider range of scenarios for local energy extraction. This leads to a more flexible and generalized framework for QET. Furthermore, we introduce the concept of a “local effective Hamiltonian,” which eliminates the need for optimization techniques in determining Bob’s optimal energy extraction in QET protocols. As an additional advantage, the amount of energy that can be extracted using our new protocol is amplified to be 7.2 times higher than that of the original protocol. These advancements enhance our understanding of QET and extend its broader applications to quantum technologies. To support our findings, we implement the protocol on quantum hardware, confirming its theoretical validity and experimental feasibility.

amplified energy extraction↗
DOE OSTI2023

Angular Momentum Variation of the Milky Way Thick Disk: The Dependence of Chemical Abundance and Evidence of the Inside-out Formation Scenario

We investigate the angular momentum of mono-abundance populations (MAPs) of the Milky Way thick disk by using a sample of 26,076 giant stars taken from APOGEE Data Release (DR) 17 and Gaia early DR3. The vertical and perpendicular angular momentum components, L Z and L P , of the MAPs in narrow bins have significant variations across the [α/M]–[M/H] plane. L Z and L P systematically change with [M/H] and [α/M] and can be alternatively quantified by the chemical gradients: d[M/H]/dL Z = 1.2 × 10 -3 dex kpc -1 km -1 s, d[M/H]/dL P = -5.0 × 10 -3 dec kpc -1 km -1 s, and d[α/M]/dL Z = -3.0 × 10 -4 dex kpc -1 km -1 s, d[α/M]/dL P = 1.2 × 10 -3 dec kpc -1 km -1 s. These correlations can also be explained as the chemical dependence of the spatial distribution shape of the MAPs. We also exhibit the corresponding age dependence of the angular momentum components. Under the assumption that the guiding radius (R g ) is proportional to L Z , this provides direct observational evidence of the inside-out structure formation scenario of the thick disk, with dR g /dAge = -1.9 kpc Gyr -1 . The progressive changes in the disk thickness can be explained by the upside-down formation or/and the consequent kinematical heating.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Different Formation Scenarios for Counterrotating Stellar Disks in Nearby Galaxies

Using the integral field unit data from the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory survey, we select a sample of 101 galaxies with counterrotating stellar disks and regularly rotating ionized gas disks. We classify the 101 galaxies into four types based on the features of their stellar velocity fields. The relative fractions and stellar population age radial gradients of the four types are different in the blue cloud, green valley, and red sequence populations. We suggest different formation scenarios for counterrotating stellar disks; the key factors in the formation of counterrotating stellar disks include (1) the abundance of preexisting gas in the progenitor and (2) the efficiency in angular momentum consumption.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring Building Retrofit Strategies Using AutoBEM Under Future Weather Scenarios

This study evaluates the long-term effectiveness of energy conservation measures (ECMs) on building energy consumption using AutoBEM, a scalable modeling framework driven by the high-resolution Model America dataset. We simulated 18,951 buildings in Flagstaff, Arizona under four climate scenarios using Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) weather files for six time periods spanning from 1980 to 2099. Six ECMs were analyzed across electricity and gas usage, including HVAC fuel-switching, insulation upgrades, and infiltration control. While some measures, such as reducing space infiltration by percentage, showed minimal or even negative impact on total energy savings at the aggregate level, they proved highly effective for specific building types. Conversely, HVAC electrification offers high gas reduction but shifts demand to electricity, highlighting critical trade-offs under different climate trajectories. Building-type-specific analysis under SSP5-RCP8.5 (2080–2099) revealed significant variation in ECM performance, underscoring the need for targeted retrofit strategies. This study demonstrates the power of combining fTMY projections with large-scale simulations to inform data-driven retrofit planning.

Chowdhury, Shovan [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-scale transport in the DIII-D ITER baseline scenario with direct electron heating and projection to ITER

Multi-scale fluctuations measured by turbulence diagnostics spanning long and short wavelength spatial scales impact energy confinement and the scale-lengths of plasma kinetic profiles in the DIII-D ITER baseline scenario with direct electron heating. Contrasting discharge phases with ECH + neutral beam injection (NBI) and NBI only at similar rotation reveal higher energy confinement and lower fluctuations when only NBI heating is used. Modeling of the core transport with TGYRO using the TGLF turbulent transport model and NEO neoclassical transport reproduces the experimental profile changes upon application of direct electron heating and indicates that multi-scale transport mechanisms are responsible for changes in the temperature and density profiles. Intermediate and high-k fluctuations appear responsible for the enhanced electron thermal flux, and intermediate-k electron modes produce an inward particle pinch that increases the inverse density scale length. Projection to ITER is performed with TGLF and indicates a density profile that has a finite scale length due to intermediate-k electron modes at low collisionality and increases the fusion gain. For a range of E×B shear, the dominant mechanism that increases fusion performance is suppression of outward low-k particle flux and increased density peaking.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1972

Generating social impact scenarios, a key step in making technology assessment studies

The social impact scenario, a method used to trace the effects of new technological applications, is discussed. The research seeks to anticipate the secondary social impacts that arise from: (1) government or private programs that cope with major social problems like poverty, environmental pollution, or public safety; and (2) a concerted national effort to achieve a widely supported specific goal like landing a man on the moon or finding a cure for cancer.

Jones, M. V.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Long-term prospects for developments in space: A scenario approach

Long-term plans for future NASA programs are reported, and some of the following topics are discussed in detail: (1) systematic formulation of space scenarios; (2) the basic international context; (3) potential 21st century space developments; (4) space vehicle developments; and (5) future exploration.

Brown, W. M.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Building application of solar energy. Study no. 4: Scenarios for the utilization of solar energy in southern California buildings, change 1

Plausible future market scenarios for solar heating and cooling systems into buildings in the area served by the Southern California Edison Company. A range of plausible estimates for the number of solar systems which might be installed and the electrical energy which might be displaced by energy from these systems are provided. The effect on peak electrical load was not explicitly calculated but preliminary conclusions concerning peak load can be inferred from the estimates presented. Two markets are investigated: the single family market and the large power commercial market.

Davis, E. S.↗