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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Integration of Weather Data into Airspace and Traffic Operations Simulation (ATOS) for Trajectory- Based Operations Research

Explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with the National Airspace System (NAS) structure is needed to improve the development and execution of operationally effective weather impact mitigation plans and has become increasingly important due to NAS congestion and associated increases in delay. This article considers several contemporary weather-air traffic management (ATM) integration applications: the use of probabilistic forecasts of visibility at San Francisco, the Route Availability Planning Tool to facilitate departures from the New York airports during thunderstorms, the estimation of en route capacity in convective weather, and the application of mixed-integer optimization techniques to air traffic management when the en route and terminal capacities are varying with time because of convective weather impacts. Our operational experience at San Francisco and New York coupled with very promising initial results of traffic flow optimizations suggests that weather-ATM integrated systems warrant significant research and development investment. However, they will need to be refined through rapid prototyping at facilities with supportive operational users We have discussed key elements of an emerging aviation weather research area: the explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with NAS structure to improve the effectiveness and timeliness of weather impact mitigation plans. Our insights are based on operational experiences with Lincoln Laboratory-developed integrated weather sensing and processing systems, and derivative early prototypes of explicit ATM decision support tools such as the RAPT in New York City. The technical components of this effort involve improving meteorological forecast skill, tailoring the forecast outputs to the problem of estimating airspace impacts, developing models to quantify airspace impacts, and prototyping automated tools that assist in the development of objective broad-area ATM strategies, given probabilistic weather forecasts. Lincoln Laboratory studies and prototype demonstrations in this area are helping to define the weather-assimilated decision-making system that is envisioned as a key capability for the multi-agency Next Generation Air Transportation System [1]. The Laboratory's work in this area has involved continuing, operations-based evolution of both weather forecasts and models for weather impacts on the NAS. Our experience has been that the development of usable ATM technologies that address weather impacts must proceed via rapid prototyping at facilities whose users are highly motivated to participate in system evolution.

Peters, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2013

Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC): NASA to FAA Research Transition

After takeoff, aircraft must merge into en route (Center) airspace traffic flows which may be subject to constraints that create localized demand-capacity imbalances. When demand exceeds capacity, Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) and Frontline Managers (FLMs) often use tactical departure scheduling to manage the flow of departures into the constrained Center traffic flow. Tactical departure scheduling usually involves use of a Call for Release (CFR) procedure wherein the Tower must call the Center to coordinate a release time prior to allowing the flight to depart. In present-day operations release times are computed by the Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) decision support tool based upon manual estimates of aircraft ready time verbally communicated from the Tower to the Center. The TMA-computed release time is verbally communicated from the Center back to the Tower where it is relayed to the Local controller as a release window that is typically three minutes wide. The Local controller will manage the departure to meet the coordinated release time window. Manual ready time prediction and verbal release time coordination are labor intensive and prone to inaccuracy. Also, use of release time windows adds uncertainty to the tactical departure process. Analysis of more than one million flights from January 2011 indicates that a significant number of tactically scheduled aircraft missed their en route slot due to ready time prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in ready time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route flows and lead to lost throughput. Next Generation Air Transportation System plans call for development of Tower automation systems capable of computing surface trajectory-based ready time estimates. NASA has developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept that improves tactical departure scheduling by automatically communicating surface trajectory-based ready time predictions and departure runway assignments to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept reduces uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs and FLMs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station in Dallas-Fort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations.

ATM↗
NASA NTRS2015

Scalable Lunar Surface Networks and Adaptive Orbit Access

Teranovi Technologies, Inc., has developed innovative network architecture, protocols, and algorithms for both lunar surface and orbit access networks. A key component of the overall architecture is a medium access control (MAC) protocol that includes a novel mechanism of overlaying time division multiple access (TDMA) and carrier sense multiple access with collision avoidance (CSMA/CA), ensuring scalable throughput and quality of service. The new MAC protocol is compatible with legacy Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 802.11 networks. Advanced features include efficiency power management, adaptive channel width adjustment, and error control capability. A hybrid routing protocol combines the advantages of ad hoc on-demand distance vector (AODV) routing and disruption/delay-tolerant network (DTN) routing. Performance is significantly better than AODV or DTN and will be particularly effective for wireless networks with intermittent links, such as lunar and planetary surface networks and orbit access networks.

Wang, Xudong↗
NASA NTRS2016

Systems and Methods for Collaboratively Controlling at Least One Aircraft

An unmanned vehicle management system includes an unmanned aircraft system (UAS) control station controlling one or more unmanned vehicles (UV), a collaborative routing system, and a communication network connecting the UAS and the collaborative routing system. The collaborative routing system being configured to receive flight parameters from an operator of the UAS control station and, based on the received flight parameters, automatically present the UAS control station with flight plan options to enable the operator to operate the UV in a defined airspace.

Estkowski, Regina I.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Traffic Aware Planner for Cockpit-Based Trajectory Optimization

The Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) software application is a cockpit-based advisory tool designed to be hosted on an Electronic Flight Bag and to enable and test the NASA concept of Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests (TASAR). The TASAR concept provides pilots with optimized route changes (including altitude) that reduce fuel burn and/or flight time, avoid interactions with known traffic, weather and restricted airspace, and may be used by the pilots to request a route and/or altitude change from Air Traffic Control. Developed using an iterative process, TAP's latest improvements include human-machine interface design upgrades and added functionality based on the results of human-in-the-loop simulation experiments and flight trials. Architectural improvements have been implemented to prepare the system for operational-use trials with partner commercial airlines. Future iterations will enhance coordination with airline dispatch and add functionality to improve the acceptability of TAP-generated route-change requests to pilots, dispatchers, and air traffic controllers.

Woods, Sharon E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Switched Systems and Motion Coordination: Combinatorial Challenges

Problems of routing commercial air traffic in a terminal airspace encounter different constraints: separation assurance, aircraft performance limitations, regulations. The general setting of these problems is that of a switched control system. Such a system combines the differentiable motion of the aircraft with the combinatorial choices of choosing precedence when traffic routes merge and choosing branches when the routes diverge. This presentation gives an overview of the problem, the ATM context, related literature, and directions for future research.

terminal airspace↗
NASA NTRS2017

An Elementary Algorithm for Autonomous Air Terminal Merging and Interval Management

A central element of air traffic management is the safe merging and spacing of aircraft during the terminal area flight phase. This paper derives and examines an algorithm for the merging and interval managing problem for Standard Terminal Arrival Routes. It describes a factor analysis for performance based on the distribution of arrivals, the operating period of the terminal, and the topology of the arrival routes; then presents results from a performance analysis and from a safety analysis for a realistic topology based on typical routes for a runway at Phoenix International Airport. The heart of the safety analysis is a statistical derivation on how to conduct a safety analysis for a local simulation when the safety requirement is given for the entire airspace.

White, Allan L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Models of Sector Flows Under Local, Regional and Airport Weather Constraints

Recently, the ATM community has made important progress in collaborative trajectory management through the introduction of a new FAA traffic management initiative called a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP). FAA can use CTOPs to manage air traffic under multiple constraints (manifested as flow constrained areas or FCAs) in the system, and it allows flight operators to indicate their preferences for routing and delay options. CTOPs also permits better management of the overall trajectory of flights by considering both routing and departure delay options simultaneously. However, adoption of CTOPs in airspace has been hampered by many factors that include challenges in how to identify constrained areas and how to set rates for the FCAs. Decision support tools providing assistance would be particularly helpful in effective use of CTOPs. Such DSTs tools would need models of demand and capacity in the presence of multiple constraints. This study examines different approaches to using historical data to create and validate models of maximum flows in sectors and other airspace regions in the presence of multiple constraints. A challenge in creating an empirical model of flows under multiple constraints is a lack of sufficient historical data that captures diverse situations involving combinations of multiple constraints especially those with severe weather. The approach taken here to deal with this is two-fold. First, we create a generalized sector model encompassing multiple sectors rather than individual sectors in order to increase the amount of data used for creating the model by an order of magnitude. Secondly, we decompose the problem so that the amount of data needed is reduced. This involves creating a baseline demand model plus a separate weather constrained flow reduction model and then composing these into a single integrated model. A nominal demand model is a flow model (gdem) in the presence of clear local weather. This defines the flow as a function of weather constraints in neighboring regions, airport constraints and weather in locations that can cause re-routes to the location of interest. A weather constrained flow reduction model (fwx-red) is a model of reduction in baseline counts as a function of local weather. Because the number of independent variables associated with each of the two decomposed models is smaller than that with a single model, need for amount of data is reduced. Finally, a composite model that combines these two can be represented as fwx-red (gdem(e), l) where e represents non-local constraints and l represents local weather. The approaches studied to developing these models are divided into three categories: (1) Point estimation models (2) Empirical models (3) Theoretical models. Errors in predictions of these different types of models have been estimated. In situations when there is abundant data, point estimation models tend to be very accurate. In contrast, empirical models do better than theoretical models when there is some data available. The biggest benefit of theoretical models is their general applicability in wider range situations once the degree of accuracy of these has been established.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗
NASA NTRS2017

Models of Sector Aircraft Counts in the Presence of Local, Regional and Airport Constraints

Recently, the ATM community has made important progress in collaborative trajectory management through the introduction of a new FAA traffic management initiative called a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP). FAA can use CTOPs to manage air traffic under multiple constraints (manifested as flow constrained areas or FCAs) in the system, and it allows flight operators to indicate their preferences for routing and delay options. CTOPs also permits better management of the overall trajectory of flights by considering both routing and departure delay options simultaneously. However, adoption of CTOPs in airspace has been hampered by many factors that include challenges in how to identify constrained areas and how to set rates for the FCAs. Decision support tools providing assistance would be particularly helpful in effective use of CTOPs. Such DSTs tools would need models of demand and capacity in the presence of multiple constraints. This study examines different approaches to using historical data to create and validate models of maximum flows in sectors and other airspace regions in the presence of multiple constraints. A challenge in creating an empirical model of flows under multiple constraints is a lack of sufficient historical data that captures diverse situations involving combinations of multiple constraints especially those with severe weather. The approach taken here to deal with this is two-fold. First, we create a generalized sector model encompassing multiple sectors rather than individual sectors in order to increase the amount of data used for creating the model by an order of magnitude. Secondly, we decompose the problem so that the amount of data needed is reduced. This involves creating a baseline demand model plus a separate weather constrained flow reduction model and then composing these into a single integrated model. A nominal demand model is a flow model (gdem) in the presence of clear local weather. This defines the flow as a function of weather constraints in neighboring regions, airport constraints and weather in locations that can cause re-routes to the location of interest. A weather constrained flow reduction model (fwx-red) is a model of reduction in baseline counts as a function of local weather. Because the number of independent variables associated with each of the two decomposed models is smaller than that with a single model, need for amount of data is reduced. Finally, a composite model that combines these two can be represented as fwx-red (gdem(e), l) where e represents non-local constraints and l represents local weather. The approaches studied to developing these models are divided into three categories: (1) Point estimation models (2) Empirical models (3) Theoretical models. Errors in predictions of these different types of models have been estimated. In situations when there is abundant data, point estimation models tend to be very accurate. In contrast, empirical models do better than theoretical models when there is some data available. The biggest benefit of theoretical models is their general applicability in wider range situations once the degree of accuracy of these has been established.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗
NASA NTRS2018

Evaluating the WRF-Hydro Modeling System in Alaska

National Water Model (NWM) implemented operationally in August 2016 to improve hydrological prediction (OWP, 2017). (1) Four operational configurations (2) Only covers contiguous United States (US). NWM is instantiation of Weather Research and Forecasting model hydrological extension package (WRF-Hydro)(Gochis et al., 2013) coupled with Noah Land Surface Model with Multi-Parameterization options (Noah-MP)(Niu et al., 2011). WRF-Hydro is extensible, high-resolution hydrologic routing and streamflow modeling framework, coupling column land surface, terrain routing, and channel routing modules (NCAR, 2017). This project uses experimental version of WRF-Hydro in Alaska mimicking the NWM to: (1) Identify modeling challenges for NWM development in Alaska (2) Assess WRF-Hydro and NWM ability to represent unique hydrological processes of arctic regions and accurately predict high and low flow events (3) Examine impacts of assimilating Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) (Biancamaria et al., 2016) observations to improve model initialization.

Hydrology↗
NASA NTRS2018

Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration - 3 (ATD-3): Operational Concept for the Integration of ATD-3 Capabilities Version 1.0

ATD-3 has developed four capabilities to address its goal and objectives. The four ATD-3 capabilities include: Dynamic Weather Routes (DWR), Multi-Flight Common Routes (MFCR), Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests (TASAR), and Dynamic Routes for Arrivals in Weather (DRAW). This document describes the long-term, mature vision for the use and incorporation of the ATD-3 capabilities into the National Airspace System (NAS). This vision describes their complementary interaction and the benefit capture that accrues from use. Recognizing that all capabilities are unlikely to be implemented in unison, each of the capabilities is designed and able to be implemented independently. As discrete portions of the integrated capabilities are planned, additional integration efforts should be undertaken to validate the complementary interactions and benefit pool are realized from the selected subset.

ConOps↗
NASA NTRS2015

A Heuristic Approach to Correlating ERAM Flight Data from Twenty Centers

Among its many other functions, the Federal Aviation Administration’s En Route Automation Modernization (ERAM) provides external systems with real-time air traffic data for flights in enroute airspace in the National Airspace System. It replaced the En Route Host computer and backup system used at 20 FAA Air Route Traffic Control Centers (Centers) nationwide. Among the new features of ERAM, its output data stream of flight plan and track data includes a unique identifier for a flight originating in any one of the 20 ERAM Centers. The unique identifier, called the Global Unique Flight Identifier (GUFI), is persistent across all the Centers that track the flight. However, certain factors make it difficult to correlate data using the GUFI. First, the value of the GUFI is only unique within a time window of seven days. Second, the GUFI is attached only to flight-plan related data messages. Finally, track positions reported by ERAM do not reference the GUFI. In order to correlate historical as well as real time flight-plan and position related ERAM data, an efficient, heuristic approach was developed, and a prototype was developed. The approach showed that the processing speed, through parallel processing, is sufficient to correlate ERAM data in real-time. As described in this paper, when there are multiple track positions reported from multiple Centers within a few seconds, each position is assigned with a weighted score to indicate the quality of the position relative to its last know position. The weighted score can be used to eliminate potentially duplicate track positions. The approach is database-agnostic, and can be implemented in a Big Data system such as an Apache Hadoop system, as well as in traditional database systems.

Correlating ERAM Flight Data↗
NASA NTRS2019

Complex Dynamics of Air Traffic Flow

Air traffic in the United States has continued to grow at a steady pace since 1980, except for a dip immediately after the tragic events of September 11, 2001. There are different growth scenarios associated both with the magnitude and the composition of the future air traffic. The Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), prepared every year by the FAA, projects the growth of traffic in the United States. Both Boeing and Airbus publish market outlooks for air travel annually. Although predicting the future growth of traffic is difficult, there are two significant trends: heavily congested major airports continue to see an increase in traffic, and the emergence of regional jets and other smaller aircraft with fewer passengers operating directly between non-major airports. The interaction between air traffic demand and the ability of the system to provide the necessary airport and airspace resources can be modeled as a network. The size of the resulting network varies depending on the choice of its nodes. It would be useful to understand the properties of this network to guide future design and development. Many questions, such as the growth of delay with increasing traffic demand and impact of the en route weather on future air traffic, require a systematic understanding of the properties of the air traffic network. There has been a major advance in the understanding of the behavior of networks with a large number of components. Several theories have been advanced about the evolution of large biological and engineering networks by authors in diversified disciplines like physics, mathematics, biology and computer science. Several networks exhibit a scale-free property in the sense that the probabilistic distribution of their nodes as a function of connections decreases slower than an exponential. These networks are characterized by the fact that a small number of components have a disproportionate influence on the performance of the network. Scale-free networks are tolerant to random failure of components, but are vulnerable to selective attack on components. This paper examines two network representations for the baseline air traffic system. A network defined with the 40 major airports as nodes and with standard flight routes as links has a characteristic scale: all nodes have 60 or more links and no node has more than 460 links. Another network is defined with baseline aircraft routing structure exhibits an exponentially truncated scale-free behavior. Its degree ranges from 2 connections to 2900 connections, and 225 nodes have more than 250 connections. Furthermore, those high-degree nodes are homogeneously distributed in the airspace. A consequence of this scale-free behavior is that the random loss of a single node has little impact, but the loss of multiple high-degree nodes (such as occurs during major storms in busy airspace) can adversely impact the system. Two future scenarios of air traffic growth are used to predict the growth of air traffic in the United States. It is shown that a three-times growth in the overall traffic may result in a ten-times impact on the density of traffic in certain parts of the United States.

Scale-free Networks↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Comparison of Two Terminal Area Detect and Avoid Well Clear Definitions

Technical requirements are currently under development for a detect and avoid system (DAA) that would support the operation of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) within the National Airspace System (NAS). Such a system would aid UAS operators in maintaining sufficient separation, or "well clear", from other aircraft in their vicinity. The first set of technical standards for a UAS DAA system (referred to as "Phase 1" requirements) was limited to UAS operations transiting through Class D, E, and G airspace to, or from, Class A (or special-use) airspace. Explicitly out of scope of the Phase 1 requirements was the operation of UAS within terminal airspace in the NAS. Fern, Rorie, Roberts and Monk (2018) explored the application of a Phase 1 DAA system within Class D terminal airspace in a human-in-the-loop simulation. The results of the study demonstrated a poor fit of the Phase 1 DAA well clear (DWC) definition to these terminal operations. The original DWC definition was designed for the en-route environment and could not account for the complex, tightly-choreographed nature of traffic typically found near an airport. The interaction of the en-route DWC definition and the terminal area traffic led to excessive DAA alerting against safely-separated traffic. The frequent alerting quickly degraded pilots' ability to discriminate between encounters where a maneuver was or was not necessary. This resulted in slower response times, higher rates of losses of DAA well clear, and more severe losses of DAA well clear than had been observed in previous DAA research (e.g., Rorie et al., 2017). The current paper reports on a follow-on study to Fern et al. (2018) that tested two DWC definitions designed to accommodate standard terminal area operating procedures, such as traffic in the downwind leg of a VFR traffic pattern while the UAS is on final. The two definitions utilized identical horizontal and vertical thresholds but differed in whether or not Tau (a function that takes into account the closure rate of two aircraft) was included as a part of the DWC hazard zone. The "Tau" DWC candidate definition nominally extended the DWC hazard zone by 15 seconds in the direction of the intruder aircraft, while the "No Tau" DWC candidate definition did not extend the DWC hazard zone. The results of this follow-on study indicated that both candidate definitions improved pilot and DAA system performance relative to Fern et al (2018). Pilot response times and rates of losses of DWC returned to levels comparable to earlier research in the en-route environment. Several important differences between the two DWC candidate definitions, however, are also discussed.

Terminal Area↗
NASA NTRS2015

Strategic Planning of Efficient Oceanic Flights

The efficiency of oceanic flights is low due to limited navigational and communication equipment, congestion and airspace restrictions. The availability of Automated Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) and other improvements provides opportunity for better strategic planning of trajectories. Transatlantic flights between US and Europe constitute one of the busiest oceanic airspace regions in the world. This paper examines the benefits of a wind-optimal trajectory concept with a strategic de-confliction component compared to the current flight planning using the North Atlantic Tracks. The methodology generates a wind-optimal route for each aircraft and a strategic reduction in the potential conflicts between aircraft by a combination of small adjustments to departure times and rerouting. The de-confliction is achieved by optimization techniques involving simulated annealing with local gradient searching. The fuel burn for the tracks in today's Organized Track System are compared with the corresponding quantities for the wind-optimized routes to evaluate the potential benefits of flying wind-optimal routes in North Atlantic Airspace. The analysis is based on air traffic between US and Europe during July 2012. The potential fuel savings depend on existing inefficiencies in current flight plans, atmospheric conditions and location of the city-pairs. The paper provides both aggregate results and detailed examination of some of the most popular city-pairs. Results show that strategic planning can improve the efficiency of flight trajectories by 3 to 5 depending on city-pairs and aircraft type. This translates into a potential fuel savings in the range of (420-970) kg per flight for a Boeing 767-300, the most widely used aircraft between the city-pairs in this study.

oceanic operations↗
NASA NTRS2015

Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSS)

The Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Next Generation Air Transportation System (or NextGen) is being designed to support the predicted increases in traffic volume and to increase the capacity, efficiency and safety of the National Airspace System (NAS). The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) identifies Performance-Based Navigation (PBN) as a key enabling capability of NextGen and is actively publishing PBN procedures at major airports throughout the United States. Standard Terminal Arrival Routes (STARs), procedures, and approaches are designed to facilitate fuel-efficient continuous descent operations. However, their use is limited during periods of high traffic demand due to the complexity of merging multiple streams of aircraft to the same airport. As a result, most arrivals in the Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) area continue to be controlled using radar vectoring and step-down descents, resulting in high workload for controllers and diverting aircraft from efficient PBN trajectories. To address this issue, NASA developed the Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSS) system, an advanced arrival management technology that combines time-based scheduling and controller-based precision spacing tools. TSS is a ground-based controller automation tool that facilitates sequencing and merging arrivals on Performance-Based Navigation (PBN) routes, especially during highly congested demand periods. The two main components of TSS are: 1) a scheduler that de-conflicts merging arrivals in the terminal area by computing appropriate arrival times to the runway threshold and upstream terminal merge points, and 2) a set of Controller-Managed Spacing (CMS) decision support tools to efficiently assist schedule conformance. Sixteen high-fidelity human-in-the-loop simulations involving more than five hundred hours of evaluation time, were conducted to mature TSS from proof-of-concept design to a fully functional prototype. Results indicate high controller use and acceptability of the CMS tools as well as improved PBN route conformance (Figure 2). The TSS technology was transferred to the FAA in 2014, and it is targeted for deployment to several busy airports in the U.S. starting in 2018. Potential enhancements to TSS using DataComm will also be presented.

controller-managed spacing↗
NASA NTRS2019

Investigation of Communications Involved in Near-Term UAM Operations

The present research explored whether the implementation of a letter of agreement (LOA), or pre-established written terms of engagement, would reduce controller communication associated workload in a HITL study simulating a near-term UAM infrastructure with varying traffic levels. Current helicopter routes, including modified versions, and communication procedures were outlined in the LOA. Time spent communicating was reduced under both conditions featuring a LOA, for current and modified routes, compared to present day procedures without a LOA. Results suggest that utilizing current-day helicopter routes and implementing a LOA may prove beneficial for near-term low-density and low-tempo UAM operations.

Keeler, Jillian N.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Uncertainty in Time and Fuel Benefit Estimation for TASAR Operational Evaluation

The Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests concept aims to reduce weather-induced delays, improve route efficiency, and efficiently share route modification options by combining onboard avionics data, Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast data, and broadband internet data to generate optimal, traffic-compatible trajectory changes based on real-time traffic and weather data. Time and fuel benefits due to use of the Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) software can be estimated by taking the difference in predicted flight time and fuel usage before and after a TAP-inspired trajectory change is completed. Although TAP’s optimization algorithm predicts flight and fuel usage based on the current flight route and weather data, it does not account for possible air traffic controller-initiated trajectory changes, reroutes due to sudden weather changes, or other pilot/controller actions that may occur during flight. This paper introduces an approach for quantifying the uncertainty in estimated time and fuel benefits.

Burris, Joseph↗