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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Versus Cryotherapy in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer

Purpose: Cryotherapy and brachytherapy are definitive local treatment options for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. There are both prospective and retrospective data for brachytherapy, but the use of cryotherapy has been limited primarily to single-institution retrospective studies. Currently, no published evidence has compared low-dose-rate brachytherapy versus cryotherapy. Methods and Materials: Institutional review board approval was obtained to conduct a retrospective chart review of consecutive patients treated at our institution from 1990 to 2012. For inclusion, patients must have received a prostate cancer diagnosis and have been considered to have low- to intermediate-risk disease according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria. All patients received brachytherapy or cryotherapy treatment. Disease specifics and failure details were collected for all patients. Failure was defined as prostate-specific antigen nadir +2 ng/mL. Results: A total of 359 patients were analyzed. The groups comprised 50 low-risk cryotherapy (LRC), 92 intermediate-risk cryotherapy (IRC), 133 low-risk brachytherapy (LRB), and 84 intermediate-risk brachytherapy (IRB) patients. The median prostate-specific antigen follow-up periods were 85.6 months (LRC), 59.2 months (IRC), 74.9 months (LRB), and 59.8 months (IRB). The 5-year biochemical progression–free survival (bPFS) rate was 57.9% in the cryotherapy group versus 89.6% in the brachytherapy group (P<.0001). The 5-year bPFS rate was 70.0% (LRC), 51.4% (IRC), 89.4% (LRB), and 89.7% (IRB). The bPFS rate was significantly different between brachytherapy and cryotherapy for low- and intermediate-risk groups (P<.05). The mean nadir temperature reached for cryotherapy patients was −35°C (range, −96°C to −6°C). Cryotherapy used a median of 2 freeze-thaw cycles (range, 2-4 freeze-thaw cycles). Conclusions: Results from this study suggest that cryotherapy is inferior to brachytherapy for patients with low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Patient selection criteria for consideration of cryotherapy and brachytherapy are similar in terms of anesthesia candidacy. Therefore, cryotherapy would not be recommended as a first-line local therapy for this particular patient subset.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Shift in Peaks of PAH-Associated Health Risks From East Asia to South Asia and Africa in the Future

Lung cancer risk from exposure to ambient polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is expected to change significantly by 2050 compared to 2008 due to changes in climate and emissions. Integrating a global atmospheric chemistry model, a lung cancer risk model, and plausible future emissions trajectories of PAHs, we assess how global PAHs and their associated lung cancer risk will likely change in the future. Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) is used as an indicator of cancer risk from PAH mixtures. From 2008 to 2050, the population-weighted global average BaP concentrations under all RCPs consistently exceeded the WHO-recommended limits, primarily attributed to residential biofuel use. Peaks in PAH-associated incremental lifetime cancer risk shift from East Asia (4 × 10 –5 ) in 2008 to South Asia (mostly India, 2–4 × 10 –5 ) and Africa (1–2 × 10 –5 ) by 2050. In the developing regions of Africa and South Asia, PAH-associated lung cancer risk increased by 30–64% from 2008 to 2050, due to increasing residential energy demand in households for cooking, heating, and lighting, the continued use of traditional biomass use, increases in agricultural waste burning, and forest fires, accompanied by rapid population growth in these regions. Due to more stringent air quality policies in developed countries, their PAH lung cancer risk substantially decreased by ~80% from 2008 to 2050. Climate change is likely to have minor effects on PAH lung cancer risk compared to the impact of emissions. Future policies, therefore, need to consider efficient combustion technologies that reduce air pollutant emissions, including incomplete combustion products such as PAH.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Artificial intelligence-empowered cellular morphometric risk score improves prognostic stratification of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma

Abstract Background Risk stratification of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is essential for managing patients. Objectives To determine if artificial intelligence and machine learning might help to stratify patients with cSCC by risk using more than solely clinical and histopathological factors. Methods We retrieved a retrospective cohort of 104 patients whose cSCCs had been excised with clear margins. Clinical and histopathological risk factors were evaluated. Haematoxylin and eosin-stained slides were scanned and analysed by an algorithm based on the stacked predictive sparse decomposition technique. Cellular morphometric biomarkers (CMBs) were identified via machine learning and used to derive a cellular morphometric risk score (CMRS) that classified cSCCs into clusters of differential prognoses. Concordance analysis, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and accuracy were calculated and compared with results obtained with the Brigham and Women’s Hospital (BWH) staging system. The performance of the combination of the BWH staging system and the CMBs was also analysed. Results There were no differences among the CMRS groups in terms of clinical and histopathological risk factors and T-stage assignment, but there were significant differences in prognosis. Combining the CMRS with BWH staging systems increased distinctiveness and improved prognostic performance. C-indices were 0.91 local recurrence and 0.91 for nodal metastasis when combining the two approaches. The NPV was 94.41% and 96.00%, the PPV was 36.36% and 41.67%, and accuracy reached 86.75% and 89.16%, respectively, with the combined approach. Conclusions CMRS is helpful for cSCC risk stratification beyond classic clinical and histopathological risk features. Combining the information from the CMRS and the BWH staging system offers outstanding prognostic performance for patients with high-risk cSCC.

Pérez-Baena, Manuel J.↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Combined Effect of Cigarette Smoking and Fitness on Injury Risk in Men and Women

Abstract Background Prior studies have identified cigarette smoking and low fitness as independent risk factors for injury; however, no studies have evaluated the combined effect of cigarette smoking and fitness on injury risk. Objective To evaluate the combined effect of cigarette smoking and fitness on injury risk in men and women. Design This is a secondary analysis of data collected from US Army recruits (n = 2000) during basic combat training within the United States in 2007. Physical training and fitness, cigarette smoking, and prior injury data were obtained from questionnaires, whereas demographic and injury data were obtained from medical and basic combat training unit records. Chi-squared tests were used to assess differences in injury risk by fitness level and cigarette smoking. Relative risk values were calculated with 95% confidence intervals. Results The primary findings showed that smokers experienced 20%–30% higher risk of injury than nonsmokers. In addition, higher aerobic and muscular fitness was generally not protective against injury between least fit and more fit smokers. However, higher fitness was protective against injury between least and more fit nonsmokers, with least fit nonsmokers being 30%–50% more likely to experience an injury than fit nonsmokers. Conclusion This study revealed that higher aerobic and muscular fitness was not protective against injury among smokers; however, it was protective against injury among nonsmokers. Further implementation of smoking cessation programs may be beneficial for military and civilian personnel who are required to be physically fit in order to carry out their job responsibilities. Implications Male and female smokers experienced significantly higher risk of injury than nonsmokers. Although higher fitness is protective against injury in nonsmokers, the protective effect of fitness is lost among smokers. In an attempt to reduce injury risk among military and emergency personnel, smoking cessation programs should be further implemented among both more fit and less fit smokers.

Brooks, Raina D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the compatibility of established methods with emerging artificial intelligence and machine learning methods for disaster risk analysis

Abstract There is growing interest in leveraging advanced analytics, including artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), for disaster risk analysis (RA) applications. These emerging methods offer unprecedented abilities to assess risk in settings where threats can emerge and transform quickly by relying on “learning” through datasets. There is a need to understand these emerging methods in comparison to the more established set of risk assessment methods commonly used in practice. These existing methods are generally accepted by the risk community and are grounded in use across various risk application areas. The next frontier in RA with emerging methods is to develop insights for evaluating the compatibility of those risk methods with more recent advancements in AI/ML, particularly with consideration of usefulness, trust, explainability, and other factors. This article leverages inputs from RA and AI experts to investigate the compatibility of various risk assessment methods, including both established methods and an example of a commonly used AI‐based method for disaster RA applications. This article utilizes empirical evidence from expert perspectives to support key insights on those methods and the compatibility of those methods. This article will be of interest to researchers and practitioners in risk‐analytics disciplines who leverage AI/ML methods.

Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2013

Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10{sup −5} to 837.4 × 10{sup −5} depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10{sup −5}. The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10{sup −5} and 110.3 × 10{sup −5} for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10{sup −5}.Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by the treatment parameters, organ site in respect to treatment volume and patient's gender and age. The presented risk estimates may be useful in the follow-up studies of irradiated patients.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-628: Predicted Risk of Post-Irradiation Cerebral Necrosis in Pediatric Brain Cancer Patients: A Treatment Planning Comparison of Proton Vs. Photon Therapy

Purpose: Post-irradiation cerebral necrosis (PICN) is a severe late effect that can Result from brain cancers treatment using radiation therapy. The purpose of this study was to compare the treatment plans and predicted risk of PICN after volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) to the risk after passively scattered proton therapy (PSPT) and intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) in a cohort of pediatric patients. Methods: Thirteen pediatric patients with varying age and sex were selected for this study. A clinical treatment volume (CTV) was constructed for 8 glioma patients and 5 ependymoma patients. Prescribed dose was 54 Gy over 30 fractions to the planning volume. Dosimetric endpoints were compared between VMAT and proton plans. The normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) following VMAT and proton therapy planning was also calculated using PICN as the biological endpoint. Sensitivity tests were performed to determine if predicted risk of PICN was sensitive to positional errors, proton range errors and selection of risk models. Results: Both PSPT and IMPT plans resulted in a significant increase in the maximum dose and reduction in the total brain volume irradiated to low doses compared with the VMAT plans. The average ratios of NTCP between PSPT and VMAT were 0.56 and 0.38 for glioma and ependymoma patients respectively and the average ratios of NTCP between IMPT and VMAT were 0.67 and 0.68 for glioma and ependymoma plans respectively. Sensitivity test revealed that predicted ratios of risk were insensitive to range and positional errors but varied with risk model selection. Conclusion: Both PSPT and IMPT plans resulted in a decrease in the predictive risk of necrosis for the pediatric plans studied in this work. Sensitivity analysis upheld the qualitative findings of the risk models used in this study, however more accurate models that take into account dose and volume are needed.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predictive analytics to direct clinical attention to complex patients with elevated suicide risk: enhancement of the Veterans Health Administration REACH VET model

Suicide is a major public health concern, particularly among Veterans. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employs the Recovery Engagement and Coordination for Health–Veterans Enhanced Treatment (REACH VET) model to prioritise high-risk patients for targeted clinical attention. REACH VET 1.0 (RV 1.0) was developed on 2008–2011 data. To reflect changes in clinical practice and populations, VHA updated it to REACH VET 2.0 (RV 2.0). This study describes its development and validation. RV 2.0 used longitudinal data from 7,248,170 VHA patients (4,967 suicide deaths) in 2018–2019, with 650 time-varying demographic, clinical and area-level predictors derived from a 2-year lookback (2016–2019). An ensemble of Elastic-Net logistic regression models was trained on 2018 data and evaluated monthly at the population level in 2019, focusing on the top 0.1% intervention risk tier. Analyses assessed model discrimination, suicide detection, risk concentration, subgroup consistency (sex, age and race/ethnicity) and performance relative to RV 1.0 using the same percentile-based risk strata. RV 2.0 outperformed RV 1.0 across all risk strata, with better discrimination (C-statistic 0.76 vs 0.69) and consistent performance across demographic subgroups. Within the top 0.1% of predicted risk, RV 2.0 identified more deaths, higher suicide rates and greater mortality risk concentration both when averaged across the 12 monthly 2019 test sets (5.6 vs 3.6; 83.6 vs 53.7 per 100,000 person-years; 21.0 vs 14.1) and when annualised for 2019 (67 vs 43; 2.7% vs 1.7%; 1,003 vs 644 per 100,000 person-years; 26.7 vs 17.1). RV 2.0 improves suicide risk stratification among Veterans, demonstrating better performance and consistent prediction across subgroups and highlighting the need for regular model updates and evaluation.

Peluso, Alina [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hantavirus is Associated With Open Developed Areas and Arid Climates, Highlighting Increased Risk in the Western United States

In the United States, hantaviruses can cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in humans, an acute respiratory illness with a high mortality rate. Most people contract HPS from exposure to infected rodent excrement. The interannual dynamics of hantavirus transmission are tied to both environmental and human-related factors, including changes in annual climate conditions, rodent populations, and the built environment in which humans are more likely to be exposed. Similar environmental conditions and socioeconomic factors also likely determine the long-term risk of hantavirus exposure. Here, we use ecological niche models and human cases of HPS in the U.S. from 1993 to 2022 to assess hantavirus risk using four socioeconomic variables, 17 land use variables, one variable of rodent richness, and seven climate variables to determine both the geographical locations of highest exposure risk and leading environmental predictors. We found that areas with higher relative risk tend to be where it is drier, higher social vulnerability, increased rodent richness, and more open to low levels of development—this largely mapped to the western U.S. We found evidence that fringe ecosystems may be important areas of hantavirus transmission, similar to other emerging diseases. Increased rodent richness was associated with increased hantavirus risk, warranting further investigation into how the abundance and community composition of rodents could impact long-term risk. These risk maps can help public health officials develop plans for mitigating hantavirus, especially for the most susceptible populations. They can also be used to further investigate regions estimated to be at high risk for hantavirus where disease cases have not been as common but may be underreported.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Vegetable intake and the risk of bladder cancer in the BLadder Cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants (BLEND) international study

Although a potential inverse association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk has been reported, epidemiological evidence is inconsistent. This research aimed to elucidate the association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk by conducting a pooled analysis of data from prospective cohort studies. Vegetable intake in relation to bladder cancer risk was examined by pooling individual-level data from 13 cohort studies, comprising 3203 cases among a total of 555,685 participants. Pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models stratified by cohort for intakes of total vegetable, vegetable subtypes (i.e. non-starchy, starchy, green leafy and cruciferous vegetables) and individual vegetable types. In addition, a diet diversity score was used to assess the association of the varied types of vegetable intake on bladder cancer risk. The association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk differed by sex ( P -interaction = 0.011) and smoking status ( P -interaction = 0.038); therefore, analyses were stratified by sex and smoking status. With adjustment of age, sex, smoking, energy intake, ethnicity and other potential dietary factors, we found that higher intake of total and non-starchy vegetables were inversely associated with the risk of bladder cancer among women (comparing the highest with lowest intake tertile: HR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.64–0.98, P = 0.037 for trend, HR per 1 SD increment = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.81–0.99; HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.63–0.97, P = 0.034 for trend, HR per 1 SD increment = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.79–0.98, respectively). However, no evidence of association was observed among men, and the intake of vegetable was not found to be associated with bladder cancer when stratified by smoking status. Moreover, we found no evidence of association for diet diversity with bladder cancer risk. Higher intakes of total and non-starchy vegetable are associated with reduced risk of bladder cancer for women. Further studies are needed to clarify whether these results reflect causal processes and potential underlying mechanisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Radiation and Risk of Liver, Biliary Tract, and Pancreatic Cancers among Atomic Bomb Survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki: 1958–2009

The Life Span Study (LSS) of atomic bomb survivors has consistently demonstrated significant excess radiation-related risks of liver cancer since the first cancer incidence report. Here, we present updated information on radiation risks of liver, biliary tract and pancreatic cancers based on 11 additional years of follow-up since the last report, from 1958 to 2009. The current analyses used improved individual radiation doses and accounted for the effects of alcohol consumption, smoking and body mass index. The study participants included 105,444 LSS participants with known individual radiation dose and no known history of cancer at the start of follow-up. Cases were the first primary incident cancers of the liver (including intrahepatic bile duct), biliary tract (gallbladder and other and unspecified parts of biliary tract) or pancreas identified through linkage with population-based cancer registries in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Poisson regression methods were used to estimate excess relative risks (ERRs) and excess absolute risks (EARs) associated with DS02R1 doses for liver (liver and biliary tract cancers) or pancreas (pancreatic cancer). We identified 2,016 incident liver cancer cases during the follow-up period. Radiation dose was significantly associated with liver cancer risk (ERR per Gy: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.23 to 0.89; EAR per 10,000 person-year Gy: 5.32, 95% CI: 2.49 to 8.51). There was no evidence for curvature in the radiation dose response (P=0.344). ERRs by age-at-exposure categories were significantly increased among those who were exposed at 0–9, 10–19 and 20–29 years, but not significantly increased after age 30 years, although there was no statistical evidence of heterogeneity in these ERRs (P = 0.378). The radiation ERRs were not affected by adjustment for smoking, alcohol consumption or body mass index. As in previously reported studies, radiation dose was not associated with risk of biliary tract cancer (ERR per Gy: –0.02, 95% CI: –0.25 to 0.30). Radiation dose was associated with a nonsignificant increase in pancreatic cancer risk (ERR per Gy: 0.38, 95% CI: <0 to 0.83). The increased risk was statistically significant among women (ERR per Gy: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.12 to 1.45), but not among men.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Summary Report of Ecological Risk Assessment for the Operation of the Explosives Waste Treatment Facility at Site 300 of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

An ecological risk assessment is required as part of the Resource Recovery and Conservation Act (RCRA) permit renewal process for Miscellaneous Units subject to 22 CCR 66270.23. This risk assessment is prepared in support of the RCRA permit renewal for the Explosives Waste Treatment Facility (EWTF) at Site 300 of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). LLNL collected soil samples and used the resulting data to produce a scoping-level ecological risk assessment pursuant to the Department of Toxic Substances Control, Guidance for Ecological Risk Assessment at Hazardous Waste Sites and Permitted Facilities, Part A: Overview, July 4, 1996. The scoping-level ecological risk assessment provides a framework to determine the potential interaction between ecological receptors and chemicals of concern from hazardous waste treatment operations in the area of EWTF. A scoping-level ecological risk assessment includes the step of conducting soil sampling in the area of the treatment units. The Sampling Plan in Support of the Human Health and Ecological Risk Assessment for the Operation of the Explosives Waste Treatment Facility at Site 300 of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, (Terusaki, 2007), outlines the EWTF project-specific soil sampling requirements. Soil samples were obtained and analyzed for constituents from four chemical groups: furans, explosives, semi-volatiles and metals. Analytical results showed that furans, explosives and semi-volatiles were not detected; therefore, no further analysis was conducted. The soil samples did show the presence of metals. Soil samples analyzed for metals were compared to site-wide background levels, which had been developed for site -wide cleanup activities pursuant to the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). Total metal concentrations from 28 discrete soil samples obtained in the EWTF area were all below CERCLA-developed background levels. Therefore, following DTSC 1996 guidance, the EWTF hazardous waste treatment units exit the ecological risk evaluation process upon completion of the requirements of a scoping-level assessment report. This summary report documents that the requirements of a scoping-level assessment have been met.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2013

Comprehensive, Quantitative Risk Assessment of CO 2 Geologic Sequestration (Final Technical Report)

A Quantitative Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (QFMEA) was developed to conduct comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments on CO 2 capture, transportation, and sequestration or use in deep saline aquifers, enhanced oil recovery operations, or enhanced coal bed methane operations. The model identifies and characterizes potential risks; identifies the likely failure modes, causes, effects and methods of detection; lists possible risk prevention and risk mitigation steps; estimates potential damage recovery costs, mitigation costs and costs savings resulting from mitigation; and ranks (prioritizes) risks according to the probability of failure, the severity of failure, the difficulty of early failure detection and the potential for fatalities. The QFMEA model generates the necessary information needed for effective project risk management. Diverse project information can be integrated into a concise, common format that allows comprehensive, quantitative analysis, by a cross-functional team of experts, to determine: What can possibly go wrong? How much will damage recovery cost? How can it be prevented or mitigated? What is the cost savings or benefit of prevention or mitigation? Which risks should be given highest priority for resolution? The QFMEA model can be tailored to specific projects and is applicable to new projects as well as mature projects. The model can be revised and updated as new information comes available. It accepts input from multiple sources, such as literature searches, site characterization, field data, computer simulations, analogues, process influence diagrams, probability density functions, financial analysis models, cost factors, and heuristic best practices manuals, and converts the information into a standardized format in an Excel spreadsheet. Process influence diagrams, geologic models, financial models, cost factors and an insurance schedule were developed to support the QFMEA model. Comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments were conducted on three (3) sites using the QFMEA model: (1) SACROC Northern Platform CO 2 -EOR Site in the Permian Basin, Scurry County, TX, (2) Pump Canyon CO 2 -ECBM Site in the San Juan Basin, San Juan County, NM, and (3) Farnsworth Unit CO 2 -EOR Site in the Anadarko Basin, Ochiltree County, TX. The sites were sufficiently different from each other to test the robustness of the QFMEA model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

NSR&D Program Fiscal Year (FY) 2015 Call for Proposals Mitigation of Seismic Risk at Nuclear Facilities using Seismic Isolation

Seismic isolation (SI) has the potential to drastically reduce seismic response of structures, systems, or components (SSCs) and therefore the risk associated with large seismic events (large seismic event could be defined as the design basis earthquake (DBE) and/or the beyond design basis earthquake (BDBE) depending on the site location). This would correspond to a potential increase in nuclear safety by minimizing the structural response and thus minimizing the risk of material release during large seismic events that have uncertainty associated with their magnitude and frequency. The national consensus standard America Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard 4, Seismic Analysis of Safety Related Nuclear Structures recently incorporated language and commentary for seismically isolating a large light water reactor or similar large nuclear structure. Some potential benefits of SI are: 1) substantially decoupling the SSC from the earthquake hazard thus decreasing risk of material release during large earthquakes, 2) cost savings for the facility and/or equipment, and 3) applicability to both nuclear (current and next generation) and high hazard non-nuclear facilities. Issue: To date no one has evaluated how the benefit of seismic risk reduction reduces cost to construct a nuclear facility. Objective: Use seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) to evaluate the reduction in seismic risk and estimate potential cost savings of seismic isolation of a generic nuclear facility. This project would leverage ongoing Idaho National Laboratory (INL) activities that are developing advanced (SPRA) methods using Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (NLSSI) analysis. Technical Approach: The proposed study is intended to obtain an estimate on the reduction in seismic risk and construction cost that might be achieved by seismically isolating a nuclear facility. The nuclear facility is a representative pressurized water reactor building nuclear power plant (NPP) structure. Figure 1: Project activities The study will consider a representative NPP reinforced concrete reactor building and representative plant safety system. This study will leverage existing research and development (R&D) activities at INL. Figure 1 shows the proposed study steps with the steps in blue representing activities already funded at INL and the steps in purple the activities that would be funded under this proposal. The following results will be documented: 1) Comparison of seismic risk for the non-seismically isolated (non-SI) and seismically isolated (SI) NPP, and 2) an estimate of construction cost savings when implementing SI at the site of the generic NPP.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Induced seismicity and carbon storage: Risk assessment and mitigation strategies

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is widely recognized as an important strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Like all technologies, however, sequestration projects create a number of potential environmental and safety hazards that must be addressed. These include earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—that can be triggered by altering pore-pressure conditions in the subsurface. To date, measured seismicity due to CO 2 injection has been limited to a few modest events, but the hazard exists and must be considered. There are important similarities between CO 2 injection and fluid injection from other applications that have induced significant events—e.g. geothermal systems, waste-fluid injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and others. There are also important distinctions among these technologies that should be considered in a discussion of seismic hazard. This report focuses on strategies for assessing and mitigating risk during each phase of a CO 2 storage project. Four key risks related to fault reactivation and induced seismicity were considered. Induced slip on faults could potentially lead to: (1) infrastructure damage, (2) a public nuisance, (3) brine-contaminated drinking water, and (4) CO 2 -contaminated drinking water. These scenarios lead to different types of damage—to property, to drinking water quality, or to the public welfare. Given these four risks, this report focuses on strategies for assessing (and altering) their likelihoods of occurrence and the damage that may result. This report begins with an overview of the basic physical mechanisms behind induced seismicity. This science basis—and its gaps—is crucial because it forms the foundation for risk assessment and mitigation. Available techniques for characterizing and monitoring seismic behavior are also described. Again, this technical basis—and its limitations—must be factored into the risk assessment and mitigation approach. A phased approach to risk management is then introduced. The basic goal of the phased approach is to constantly adapt site operations to current conditions and available characterization data. The remainder of the report then focuses in detail on different components of the monitoring, risk assessment, and mitigation strategies. Issues in current seismic risk assessment methods that must be modified to address induce seismicity are highlighted. The report then concludes with several specific recommendations for operators and regulatory authorities to consider when selecting, permitting, and operating a storage project.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

System Theoretic Frameworks for Mitigating Risk Complexity in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

In response to the expansion of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) activities -- and the associated suite of risks -- around the world, this project evaluated systems-based solutions for managing such risk complexity in multimodal and multi-jurisdictional international spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation. By better understanding systemic risks in SNF transportation, developing SNF transportation risk assessment frameworks, and evaluating these systems-based risk assessment frameworks, this research illustrated interdependency between safety, security, and safeguards risks is inherent in NFC activities and can go unidentified when each "S" is independently evaluated. Two novel system-theoretic analysis techniques -- dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) and system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) -- provide integrated "3S" analysis to address these interdependencies and the research results suggest a need -- and provide a way -- to reprioritize United States engagement efforts to reduce global nuclear risks. Lastly, this research identifies areas where Sandia National Laboratories can spearhead technical advances to reduce global nuclear dangers.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Plan to Verify and Validate Multi-Hazard Risk-Informed Margin Management Methods and Tools

This report describes the development plan for verification and validation (V&V) of multihazard risk informed margin management (RIMM) methods and tools. The plan will include using new INL developed tool sets coupled with the new multi-partner External Hazards Experimental Group (EHEG) coordinated by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) within the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) technical pathway of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. The RISMC pathway is developing a suite of new tools and methods for advanced evaluation of facility risk. The RISMC toolkit, includes tools and methods focused on evaluation of risk from external hazards (e.g, seismic and flooding events), which have been shown to be dominant risk contributors in probabilistic risk assessments performed for operating nuclear power plants (NPPs). The external events activity (EEA) within the RISMC pathway is tasked with developing tools and methods focused on evaluation of multi-hazard external risk (e.g, seismic and flooding events). The EHEG will provide technical expertise and experimental large-scale testing data needed for development and validation of tools and methods in the RISMC toolkit for external hazard safety evaluations. The EEA within RISMC has two key elements: (1) an organizational and research framework provided by INL and (2) a coordinated group of university and national laboratory partners with the complementary expertise and experimental capabilities needed to conduct large-scale external hazard-focused experiments. This cooperative group will allow INL to leverage a range of existing capabilities to meet the unique needs of RISMC tool and method development. In addition, the capabilities of the EHEG could be used to address needs of other national laboratories. Currently, there is limited data available for development and validation of the tools and methods being developed in the RISMC Toolkit. The EHEG is being developed to obtain high quality, large-scale experimental data validation of RISMC tools and methods in a timely and cost-effective way. The group of universities and national laboratories that will eventually form the EHEG (which is ultimately expected to include both the initial participants and other universities and national laboratories that have been identified) have the expertise and experimental capabilities needed to both obtain and compile existing data archives and perform additional seismic and flooding experiments. The data developed by EHEG will be stored in databases within RISMC. These databases will be used to validate the advanced external hazard tools and methods. The numerical tools under development in RISMC are used to evaluate the impacts that external hazards have on nuclear power plants. These analysis tools will be used to advanced current risk calculation processes and reduce uncertainty in these calculations. To have confidence in the predictive capability of these numerical tools it is important to verify and validate them. To verify and validate numerical tools the user must understand what physics is being used to represent the problem (i.e. constitutive models used to represent the soil and structure), the numerical solver approach used (i.e. finite element), what data already exists that could be used to validate the tools, and what data is needed for validation.

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