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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Visualizing diverse lithium growth and stripping behaviors in anode-free solid-state batteries with operando X-ray tomography

Anode-free solid-state batteries (SSBs), which eliminate the need for lithium metal use during cell assembly, have the potential to enable high energy densities and simplified manufacturing. However, the factors that control lithium growth/stripping at the anode current collector are not well understood. Here, we use operando X-ray microcomputed tomography to comprehensively image and quantify lithium deposition and stripping under various conditions in three different Li|Li 6 PS 5 Cl|current collector cells, revealing diverse behavior that depends on interface morphology, cell resistance, and solid-state electrolyte (SSE) microstructure. A cell with high resistance exhibits extensive lithium filament growth across the entire current collector interface, with filaments that grow around pre-existing pores in the SSE rather than lithium filling these pores. Lithium filament formation is partially reversible, with the cracks shrinking as lithium metal is stripped. Uniform lithium deposition is achievable at low current densities in low-resistance cells, whereas higher current densities in these cells cause an increase in interfacial roughness, which is correlated with subsequent filamentary growth at the edges of the cell. These results provide insight into filamentary vs. planar lithium growth and highlight that the evolution of lithium is sensitively dependent on SSE microstructure and electrochemical processes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Re-Examination of the N 2 O + O Reaction

The reaction of N 2 O with O is a key step in consumption of nitrous oxide in thermal processes. It has two product channels, NO + NO (R2) and N 2 + O 2 (R3). The rate constant for R2 has been measured both in the forward and the reverse direction at elevated temperature and is well established. However, the rate constant for the N 2 + O 2 channel (R3) has been difficult to quantify and has significant error limits. Here, the direct reaction on the triplet surface has a barrier of around 40 kcal mol –1 , and it is too slow for the N 2 + O 2 channel to have any practical significance. Recently, Pham and Lin (2022) suggested an alternative low activation energy reaction path that involves intersystem crossing and reaction on the singlet surface. In the present work, we re-examined a wide range of experiments relevant for the N 2 O + O reaction through kinetic modeling, paying attention to the impact of artifacts such as impurities and surface reactions. Experimental results from shock tubes and batch reactors on the final NO yield in N 2 O decomposition, covering temperatures of 973–2200 K and pressures of 0.013–11.5 atm, support k 3 ~ 0, consistent with the high activation energy for reaction on the triplet surface and a low probability of ISC.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temperature uncertainty modelling with proxy structural data as geostatistical constraints for well siting: an example applied to Granite Springs Valley, NV, USA

Utilizing existing temperature and structural geology information around Granite Springs Valley, Nevada, we build 3D stochastic temperature models with the aims of evaluating the 3D uncertainty of temperature and choosing between candidate exploration well locations. The data used to support the modelling are measured temperatures and structural proxies from 3D geologic modelling (distance to fault, distance to fault intersections and terminations, Coulomb stress change and dilation tendency), the latter considered ‘secondary’ data. Two stochastic geostatistical techniques are explored for incorporating the structural proxies: cosimulation and local varying mean. With both the cosimulation and local varying mean methods, many equally-likely temperature models (i.e. realizations) are produced, from which temperature probability profiles are calculated at candidate well locations. To aid in choosing between the candidate locations, two quantities summarize the temperature probabilities: V prior and entropy. V prior quantifies the likelihood for economic temperatures at each candidate location, whereas entropy identifies where new information has the most potential to reduce uncertainty. In general, the cosimulation realizations have smoother spatial structure, and extrapolate high temperatures at candidate locations that are located along the direction of the longest spatial correlation, which are down dip from existing temperature logs. The smooth realizations result in tight temperature probability profiles that are easier to interpret, but they have unrealistic temperature reversals in some locations because of the dipping ellipsoid shape created and that the cosimulation technique does not enforce a conductive geothermal gradient as a baseline (i.e. linearly increasing temperature with depth). The local varying mean results produce realizations with more realistic geothermal gradients, with temperatures increasing downward since a depth-temperature relationship is included. However, because they have much noisier spatial nature compared to cosimulation, it is harder to interpret the temperature probability profiles. The different local varying mean results allow the geologist to determine which proxy (e.g. dilation v. distance to fault termination) should be used given the specific geothermal system. In general, V prior from local varying mean results identify locations that are close to high values for the structural proxies: areas with higher probabilities for higher temperatures. The entropy results identify where uncertainty is greatest and therefore new drilling information could be most useful. Though these techniques provide useful information, even when applied to areas of sparse data, our comparison of these two techniques demonstrates the need for new geothermal geostatistics techniques that combine the advantages of these two methods and that are tailored to the spatial uncertainty issues inherent in geothermal exploration.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantum model learning agent: characterisation of quantum systems through machine learning

Accurate models of real quantum systems are important for investigating their behaviour, yet are difficult to distil empirically. Here, we report an algorithm—the quantum model learning agent (QMLA)—to reverse engineer Hamiltonian descriptions of a target system. We test the performance of QMLA on a number of simulated experiments, demonstrating several mechanisms for the design of candidate Hamiltonian models and simultaneously entertaining numerous hypotheses about the nature of the physical interactions governing the system under study. QMLA is shown to identify the true model in the majority of instances, when provided with limited a priori information, and control of the experimental setup. Our protocol can explore Ising, Heisenberg and Hubbard families of models in parallel, reliably identifying the family which best describes the system dynamics. We demonstrate QMLA operating on large model spaces by incorporating a genetic algorithm to formulate new hypothetical models. The selection of models whose features propagate to the next generation is based upon an objective function inspired by the Elo rating scheme, typically used to rate competitors in games such as chess and football. In all instances, our protocol finds models that exhibit F 1 score ≥ 0.88 when compared with the true model, and it precisely identifies the true model in 72% of cases, whilst exploring a space of over 250 000 potential models. By testing which interactions actually occur in the target system, QMLA is a viable tool for both the exploration of fundamental physics and the characterisation and calibration of quantum devices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hydrogen-Bonded Organic Frameworks: A Rising Class of Porous Molecular Materials

Hydrogen-bonded organic frameworks (HOFs) are a class of porous molecular materials that rely on the assembly of organic building blocks by means of hydrogen-bonding interactions to form two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) crystalline networks. The reversible nature of the hydrogen-bond formation endows HOFs with the attributes of solution processability and simple regeneration. High-quality single crystals of HOFs can be grown easily for unambiguous superstructure determination by single-crystal X-ray diffraction, which is crucial for the elucidation of superstructure–property relationships. During the past decade, considerable progress has been achieved in realizing stable HOFs with permanent porosities by focusing on the design of molecular building blocks in order to introduce rigidity, auxiliary [π···π] interactions, and interpenetration of their frameworks to sustain the extended networks. The applications of HOFs are far-reaching, spanning catalysis, energy, and biomedical products as well as the storage and separation of fine chemicals. In this paper, we, first of all, provide an overview of the chronological development of HOFs, starting from the seminal work by Marsh and Duchamp in 1969 on the crystal superstructure of the hydrogen-bonded networks of trimesic acid. We identify the development of novel hydrogen-bonding motifs such as diaminotriazine (DTA), the introduction of the concept of molecular tectonics, and the establishment of permanent porosity in HOFs as being some of the milestones, which incentivized the current burgeoning research endeavors on developing HOFs as multifunctional materials. This Account is focused primarily on surveying the strategies for constructing porous 3D HOFs based on organic building blocks with peripheral carboxyl groups. These strategies are presented in the following categories: (1) the polycatenation of 2D networks by trigonal building blocks to form global 3D frameworks, (2) the utilization of building blocks with 3D geometries—tetrahedral and trigonal prismatic—that are predisposed to form 3D networks, and (3) the docking by shape-fitting of geometrically labile building blocks. We emphasize how the molecular geometry of the building blocks plays an important role in modulating the superstructures of extended frameworks so as to address specific applications. Recognizing that the in silico design of HOFs is the ultimate goal of researchers in this field, we also discuss the recent advances in superstructure prediction that lead to the formation of porous supramolecular crystals and assess the complications in implementing computational methods for HOFs with complex superstructures. We hope this Account will inspire the development of new supramolecular designs and creative approaches to crystal engineering that aid and abet the assembly of multifunctional HOFs with customizable properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unraveling the Hsp70-ROS-autophagy axis in pentachlorophenol-challenged lung and liver epithelial cells

Pentachlorophenol (PCP) was extensively utilized as an organochlorine pesticide and wood preservative in the United States from the 1930s until the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) imposed restrictions due to concerns about its toxicity and potential carcinogenic properties. Although it is no longer widely used, PCP remains a concern due to its environmental persistence and potential for long-term health effects. Significant occupational and environmental exposures have likely occurred, with the health and economic costs of PCP exposure potentially being substantial given its known toxicity. Notably, PCP exhibits rapid absorption through both the skin and respiratory system and has been shown to cause hepatotoxicity, developmental toxicity, immunotoxicity, irritation, and carcinogenicity in laboratory animal studies. PCP exposure induces oxidative stress, a key mechanism underlying its inflammatory and toxic effects, which can activate cellular stress responses including upregulation of heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70). Previous studies in lung and liver epithelial cells have shown that Hsp70 and oxidative stress play pivotal roles in triggering autophagy. This study establishes the critical role of the Hsp70-reactive oxygen species (ROS)-autophagy axis in regulating cellular responses to PCP exposure in human alveolar (A549) and liver carcinoma (HepG2) epithelial cells. Our research elucidated the molecular mechanisms underlying PCP's cellular effects, demonstrating that its exposure resulted in increased expression of autophagy-related proteins (Beclin-1, LC3B, ATG12, and ATG16), subunits of NADPH oxidase (NCF-1, NCF-2, NOX2, and Rac), and antioxidant proteins (SOD and GPx) in both lung and liver cell types. Notably, PCP augmented the interaction between Hsp70 and the autophagy regulator Beclin-1. Pretreatment with the ROS inhibitor N-acetylcysteine or Hsp70 knockdown markedly reversed PCP-induced responses. Our in-silico protein–protein docking analysis and molecular dynamics simulation studies revealed enhanced interactions and/or stable confirmations maintained throughout the simulations for TLR4-Hsp70 and Hsp70-Beclin-1 complexes in the presence of PCP. These findings provide a strong foundation for future studies, employing in vivo experimental models and human populations to identify promising targets for PCP-induced toxicity and cellular injury. As a result, these findings may have far-reaching implications for public health and environmental policy, ultimately leading to the identification of biomarkers and the development of more effective interventions for environmentally induced toxicity and diseases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Economic NMPC for a Reversible Solid Oxide Cell

Reversible solid oxide fuel cells (rSOCs) offer the flexibility to operate in tandem with the electric grid by switching between fuel cell and electrolysis modes based on real-time electricity prices. However, their complex, tightly coupled dynamic behavior poses significant challenges in determining optimal operating strategies. In this work, we present an economic nonlinear model predictive control (E-NMPC) framework to optimize the operation of rSOCs. The proposed E-NMPC is applied to a detailed rSOC flowsheet model that includes a utility scale rSOC module as well as balance-of-plant equipment necessary for thermal management. Our results demonstrate that in fuel cell mode, the E-NMPC strategy reduces hydrogen consumption compared to conventional set-point tracking NMPC, while maintaining the same level of electricity output. Also, in electrolysis mode, the E-NMPC yields a marginal improvement in hydrogen production. In addition, we explore the integration of a battery with the rSOC system to enhance flexibility in meeting electricity production and consumption targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A New Process for Carbon Dioxide Conversion to Fuel

In this project, TDA developed a new mixed metal oxide-based sorbent that converts CO 2 (captured from coal fired power plant) to CO, which can then be combined with renewable H 2 generated by water electrolysis to produce different liquid fuels. TDA’s absorbent-based CO 2 conversion process uses a redox process, which splits the reverse water gas shift reaction steps into two stages: CO 2 reduction to CO and H 2 oxidation to H 2 O and eliminates the equilibrium limitations. The CO produced in the two-stage reactor system can then be further reacted with renewable H 2 to produce methanol, naphtha, diesel, or gasoline. We worked with the Gas Technology Institute (GTI) and Advanced Power & Energy Program (APEP) of University of California, Irvine (UCI) to design and develop the liquid fuel synthesis process that is built around this new material. We demonstrated the techno-economic viability of the new sorbent based redox process to convert CO 2 into synthesis gas by: 1) demonstrating continuous carbon dioxide reduction in a prototype test system for over 500 hours while converting up to 0.4 kg CO 2 /day. With the successful completion of the R&D effort, the technology is now ready for a larger pilot-scale demonstration and the technology readiness has been raised from TRL 3 to TRL 5. In collaboration UCI, we also completed a high-fidelity process design and economic analysis. The required selling price (RSP) for methanol (Case 1 H2-MeOH) is $\$$3.06/gal, naphtha and diesel (Case 2 H2-FT) are $\$$6.21/gal and $\$$8.91/gal, and for gasoline (Case 3 H2-MTG) is $\$$6.96/gal on a 2011 dollar basis. To put these costs in perspective, the recent (June 2020) U.S. price for methanol made from natural gas is about $\$$1.19/gal according to Methanex, a major methanol producer in North America. The recent (June 2, 2020) California prices for gasoline and diesel with California’s strict specifications are $\$$3.35/gal and $\$$3.73/gal according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency. On the other hand, it should be noted that the gasoline and diesel produced by the designs of Case 2 and Case 3 would be both nitrogen and sulfur free. These RSPs are based on a cost of imported electricity of $\$$64/MWh based on the low-end current wind generated electricity cost (Genevieve and Ramsden, Wind Electrolysis: Hydrogen Cost Optimization, Technical Report, June 2011, NREL/TP-5600-50408). This cost is by far the largest component of the variable costs used in computing the RSPs. The cost of the imported electricity has to approach zero for the RSP to be competitive for methanol produced in Case 1 and naphtha and diesel produced in Case 2 while the cost of electricity has to be less than $\$$10/MWh for gasoline produced in Case 3.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

A guided ion beam investigation of UO 2 + thermodynamics and f orbital participation: Reactions of U + + CO 2 , UO + + O 2 , and UO + + CO

A guided ion beam tandem mass spectrometer was employed to study the reactions of U + + CO 2 , UO + + O 2 , and the reverse of the former, UO + + CO. Reaction cross sections as a function of kinetic energy over about a three order of magnitude range were studied for all systems. The reaction of U + + CO 2 proceeds to form UO + + CO with an efficiency of 118% ± 24% as well as generating UO 2 + + C and UCO + + O. The reaction of UO + + O 2 forms UO 2 + in an exothermic, barrierless process and also results in the collision-induced dissociation of UO + to yield U + . In the UO + + CO reaction, the formation of UO 2 + in an endothermic process is the dominant reaction, but minor products of UCO + + O and U + + (O + CO) are also observed. Analysis of the kinetic energy dependences observed provides the bond energies, D 0 (U + –O) = 7.98 ± 0.22 and 8.05 ± 0.14 eV, D 0 (U + –CO) = 0.73 ± 0.13 eV, and D 0 (OU + –O) = 7.56 ± 0.12 eV. The values obtained for D 0 (U + –O) and D 0 (OU + –O) agree well with the previously reported literature values. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental measurement of D 0 (U + –CO). Furthermore, an analysis of the oxide bond energies shows that participation of 5f orbitals leads to a substantial increase in the thermodynamic stability of UO 2 + relative to ThO 2 + and especially transition metal dioxide cations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Explicit Uncertainty for Binary Analysis (EUBA)

Reverse engineering (RE) analysts struggle to address critical questions about the safety of binary code accurately and promptly, and their supporting program analysis tools are simply wrong sometimes. The analysis tools have to approximate in order to provide any information at all, but this means that they introduce uncertainty into their results. And those uncertainties chain from analysis to analysis. We hypothesize that exposing sources, impacts, and control of uncertainty to human binary analysts will allow the analysts to approach their hardest problems with high-powered analytic techniques that they know when to trust. Combining expertise in binary analysis algorithms, human cognition, uncertainty quantification, verification and validation, and visualization, we pursue research that should benefit binary software analysis efforts across the board. We find a strong analogy between RE and exploratory data analysis (EDA); we begin to characterize sources and types of uncertainty found in practice in RE (both in the process and in supporting analyses); we explore a domain-specific focus on uncertainty in pointer analysis, showing that more precise models do help analysts answer small information flow questions faster and more accurately; and we test a general population with domain-general sudoku problems, showing that adding "knobs" to an analysis does not significantly slow down performance. This document describes our explorations in uncertainty in binary analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reversible CO 2 Hydrogenation, Neutron Crystallography, and Hydride Reactivity of a Triiridium Heptahydride Complex

Abstract The authors report the structure, reactivity, and catalytic utility of a triiridium complex, [Ir 3 H 6 ( μ 3 ‐H)(PN) 3 ] 2+ ( 2‐H , PN = (2‐pyridyl)CH 2 PBu t 2 ). Despite its unusual stability to unsaturated organics, electrophiles, and even CF 3 SO 3 D, they find that complex 2‐H catalyzes hydrogenation of CO 2 to formate (TON Ir = 9600) and reverse formic acid dehydrogenation (TON Ir = 54 400). The hydrogenation operates via a reactive intermediate [Ir 3 H 4 ( μ ‐H) 4 (PN) 3 ] + ( 5 ). Neutron crystallography and DFT‐supported neutron vibrational spectroscopy of 2‐H reveal Ir─H bond lengths and elucidate the vibration modes within the Ir 3 H 7 core. Stoichiometric oxidation of 2‐H produces four classes of iridium complexes of varied nuclearity and hydride structure: tetra‐ and pentanuclear clusters [Ir 3 H 6 ( μ 3 ‐AuPPh 3 )(PN) 3 ] 2+ ( 2‐Au ) and [Ag{Ir 2 H 4 ( μ ‐OAc)(PN) 2 } 2 ] 3+ ( 6 ) are generated using AuPPh 3 + and AgOAc, respectively. Further oxidation to class [Ir 2 H 3 ( μ ‐X) 2 (PN) 2 ] + is possible with AgOAc, Hg(OAc) 2 , or I 2 . Finally, a TEMPO/HCl system completely oxidizes the hydrides and gives [Ir 2 Cl 4 ( μ ‐Cl) 2 (PN) 2 ] ( 11 ).

Cherepakhin, Valeriy [Loker Hydrocarbon Research I↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probing the Potential Energy Profile of the I + (H 2 O) 3 → HI + (H 2 O) 2 OH Forward and Reverse Reactions: High Level CCSD(T) Studies with Spin-Orbit Coupling Included

Three different pathways for the atomic iodine plus water trimer reaction I + (H 2 O) 3 → HI + (H 2 O) 2 OH were preliminarily examined by the DFT-MPW1K method. Related to previous predictions for the F/Cl/Br + (H 2 O) 3 reactions, three pathways for the I + (H 2 O) 3 reaction are linked in terms of geometry and energetics. To legitimize the results, the “gold standard” CCSD(T) method was employed to investigate the lowest-lying pathway with the correlation-consistent polarized valence basis set up to cc-pVQZ(-PP). According to the CCSD(T)/cc-pVQZ(-PP)//CCSD(T)/cc-pVTZ(-PP) results, the I + (H 2 O) 3 → HI + (H 2 O) 2 OH reaction is predicted to be endothermic by 47.0 kcal mol -1 . The submerged transition state is predicted to lie 43.7 kcal mol -1 above the separated reactants. The I···(H 2 O) 3 entrance complex lies below the separated reactants by 4.1 kcal mol -1 , and spin-orbit coupling has a significant impact on this dissociation energy. The HI···(H 2 O) 2 OH exit complex is bound by 4.3 kcal mol -1 in relation to the separated products. Compared with simpler I + (H 2 O) 2 and I + H 2 O reactions, the I + (H 2 O) 3 reaction is energetically between them in general. It is speculated that the reaction between the iodine atom and the larger water clusters may be energetically analogous to the I + (H 2 O) 3 reaction. The iodine reaction I + (H 2 O) 3 is connected with the analogous valence isoelectronic bromine/chlorine reactions Br/Cl + (H 2 O) 3 but much different from the F + (H 2 O) 3 reaction. Significant difference with other halogen systems, especially for barrier heights, are seen for the iodine systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects by Incorporating Machine Learning Techniques

The overall objective of this project is to develop a framework for reliable characterization and prediction of the state of stress in the overburden and underburden (including the basement) in CO 2 storage reservoirs using machine learning and integrated geomechanics and geophysical methods. Specifically, we propose to develop workflow encompassing of technologies and/or methods to predict stress and pressure changes due to CO 2 injection in an active tertiary recovery site and their impacts on subtle fault activation, fractures and occurrence of microseismic events and compare responses to field observations. In this project, we anticipate using dataset from the Farnsworth field Unit (FWU) which is operated by Purdure Petroleum. A novel elastic-waveform VSP inversion technique will be used to estimate high-resolution spatial and temporal changes of elastic moduli in CO 2 storage reservoirs, which will be combined with velocity-stress relationship derived from laboratory tests to obtain subsurface pressure and stress. Clustered microseismic data will be jointly inverted for improved focal mechanisms. Least-squares reverse-time migration of microseismic waveform data will be performed to directly image fracture/fault zones. Additionally, a deep neural network machine learning technique with convolutional and recurrent layers will be used for learning the spectro-temporal structures in microseismic waveforms. The results of this geotechnical data analysis will be integrated to develop a high-resolution 3D mechanical earth model extending from the overburden sealing formations to the underburden including the basement. Mechanical properties will be derived through integration of mechanical logs, tests, available results from chemo-mechanical laboratory tests, and elastic inversion of seismic data using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic methods as well as machine learning technique. Failure features (faults/fractures) will be represented and/or modeled based on seismic and core data analysis. A transient hydrodynamic-geomechanical model will be developed through coupling with the calibrated FWU reservoir simulation model. The full physics coupled model will be used to train a reduced order proxy model using machine learning algorithm for estimating stress which will then be used with appropriate constitutive relationships and forward seismological models to simulate pressure changes and induced microseismicity. An advanced optimization framework will be developed to perform a history match to minimize error between field observations and simulated. The history matched proxy model will be verified against the full-physics equivalent. The field observations that will be used in the coupled model calibration process include pressure/stress inverted from VSP, moment magnitude from microseismic analysis, real time downhole pressure measurements, production and injection data. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will be performed to characterize the impact of model parameter uncertainty on stress estimates. The proposed project will have significant impact on future field implementation of the proposed technology. Because the project field site is an ongoing CO 2 EOR development, the value of the new technology will be demonstrated in an operational context and evaluated as a viable risk mitigation strategy. Cost/benefit will be evaluated together with the various commercial incentives for CO 2 sequestration available to oil and gas operators. The extensive available dataset and ongoing data acquisition under the SWP Phase III work plan provides flexibility for investigation of multiple approaches and reduces technical risk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Levelized Cost of Exergy Framework

Exergy is the amount of energy within a substance or within a transfer of energy that can be used to produce work or some other useful output when interacting with some reference environment. Two different energy systems that produce the same output with the same exergetic efficiency must necessarily have the same amount of exergy input, even if the amount of energy input to the two systems is vastly different. For example, a low-grade heat-driven desalination would require far more energy input than a reverse osmosis (RO) plant producing the same amount of water, but if their exergetic efficiencies were the same, they would require the same amount of exergy input. Thus, comparisons between different energy sources on the basis of energy is not always appropriate. Instead, a comparison on a per unit exergy basis provides more insight on the cost-effectiveness of different energy sources and systems. In this presentation, we describe a framework for analyzing the levelized cost of exergy (LCOEx) for both inputs and outputs of various energy systems. Our framework illustrates how the cost per unit exergy of a system's energy source, as well as the exergetic efficiency of the system, greatly affect the cost of the system output. We use the levelized cost of electricity as a benchmark value for LCOEx, due to electricity's ubiquity as an energy source, and because it is relatively inexpensive on a per unit exergy basis. The LCOEx of various heat sources are then compared to the LCOEx of electricity. Medium- and high-grade industrial heat (> 150 degrees C) produced by natural gas tends to have an LCOEx on par with electricity. This is due to the low cost of natural gas, as well as the high exergy content of heat at higher temperatures. Meanwhile, low-grade heat tends to be an expensive exergy source, owing to the low exergy content of the low-grade heat. We first apply our framework to desalination, where RO has come to dominate, due to the low LCOEx of the energy source (electricity) and relatively high exergetic efficiency of RO compared to thermal desalination systems. We then use this framework to highlight an opportunity for dehumidification systems to experience a similar cost improvement as desalination has. If an electrically-driven, high exergetic efficiency dehumidification system were developed (such as the membrane-based dehumidification systems proposed in literature), it would use a low cost exergy source with a high exergetic efficiency and could potentially lower the cost of dehumidification in the way that RO has done for desalination. Finally, we apply our framework to various fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, gasoline, etc.) and energy systems across different sectors (desalination, dehumidification, vehicles, etc.) to understand the variation in the cost of exergy input and exergetic efficiency of different systems and technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗