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At least 541 records · Page 30

Stimulus-Responsive Modulation of Solvation Environments in Solid Catalysts

Liquid environments play a crucial role in the biological processes occurring in living organisms as well as in many human-made processes involving electrochemistry, photo-, and thermocatalysis. In the majority of these systems, aqueous phases are ubiquitous due to water’s natural abundance. Water molecules, however, can exert large changes in the chemical environment of catalytically active sites, altering the reaction rates, selectivity, and catalyst stability. These solvation effects induced by water molecules near catalytic sites can drastically change the energy landscape and unlock unique reaction pathways with far more favorable kinetics. In nature, living organisms couple these complex interactions with detection, communication, and actuation mechanisms to induce self-regulatory behavior, ensuring stability of the system and thus long-term durability. Extrapolating this behavior to heterogeneous catalysis is desirable because the resulting “smart materials” can potentially unlock new chemical conversion processes with higher atom efficiency, rates, and stability. The combination of polymer chemistry and heterogeneous catalysis has introduced versatile approaches for creating materials that can respond to cues in the reaction medium that alter the accessibility, intrinsic activity, and selectivity of the catalyst. To achieve this, one could combine stimulus-responsive polymers, which undergo a large volumetric phase transition in response to an external stimulus, with a solid catalyst. This chemo-mechanical response has been employed to create a variety of nanoreactor vessels with stimulus-responsive character that turn on- and off- depending on the reaction conditions. In this Account, we focus on the impact of these polymer coatings on the solvation environment around the active site and the implications of these effects on the reaction energy landscape, molecular arrangement of the solvent, electric fields at the catalyst–liquid interface, binding energy, and mobility of surface reaction intermediates. These seemingly subtle changes in solvent molecules induced by the presence of polymers can have a tremendous impact on the development of bioinspired heterogeneous catalysts, reliable chemical clocks, micro/nanoreactors, and robots. The large library of polymer chemistries offers a plethora of combinations of stimulus-responsive mechanisms (e.g., temperature, pH, light, magnetic field, solvent composition), providing the possibility of creating homeostatic catalysts à la carte.

catalysts↗

Local-Field Effects in Linear Response Properties within a Polarizable Frozen Density Embedding Method

In this work, we present a polarizable frozen density embedding (FDE) method for calculating polarizabilities of coupled subsystems. The method (FDE-pol) combines a FDE method with an explicit polarization model such that the expensive freeze/thaw cycles can be bypassed, and approximate nonadditive kinetic potentials are avoided by enforcing external orthogonality between the subsystems. To describe the polarization of the frozen environment, we introduce a Hirshfeld partition-based density-dependent method for calculating the atomic polarizabilities of atoms in molecules, which alleviates the need to fit the atomic parameters to a specific system of interest or to a larger general set of molecules. Further, we show that the Hirshfeld partition-based method predicts molecular polarizabilities close to the basis set limit, and thus, a single basis set-dependent scaling parameter can be introduced to improve the agreement against the reference polarizability data. To test the model, we characterized the uncoupled and coupled response of small interacting molecular complexes. Here, the coupled response properties include the perturbation of the frozen system due to the external perturbation which is ignored in the uncoupled response. We show that FDE-pol can accurately reproduce both the exact uncoupled polarizability and the coupled polarizabilities of the supermolecular systems. Using damped response theory, we also demonstrate that the coupled frequency-dependent polarizability can be described by including local field effects. The results emphasize the necessity of including local-field effects for describing the response properties of coupled subsystems, as well as the importance of accurate atomic polarizability models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Large Divergence in Tropical Hydrological Projections Caused by Model Spread in Vegetation Responses to Elevated CO 2

Increasing atmospheric CO 2 and associated global warming are expected to alter the global hydrological cycle, thereby posing widespread threats to freshwater availability. However, future hydrological projections differ greatly between models, particularly over the tropical regions. The large difference between model projections directly limits policy planning efforts, and the responsible modeling processes remain unclear. Here, we identify the primary processes accounting for model differences in tropical hydrological changes using multiple CO 2 sensitivity experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We show that differences in projected changes to tropical evapotranspiration, precipitation, and surface water availability mainly arise from model representations of vegetation cover and stomatal conductance responses to elevated CO 2 and associated changes in atmospheric moisture and circulation. Atmospheric responses to sea surface warming contribute additionally to the divergence in hydrological projections. Given the importance of vegetation responses to elevated CO 2 and associated atmosphere feedbacks, our results underscore the need to improve representations of the vegetation physiological response to rising CO 2 and its coupling to the atmosphere, to provide reliable tropical hydrological projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Diurnal rainfall response to the physiological and radiative effects of CO 2 in tropical forests in the Energy exascale earth system model v1

Understanding how the connection between rainfall and tropical forests will respond to increasing CO$_2$ concentrations is a key element in understanding how the tropical water cycle will respond to increasing CO$_2$. The plant physiological and radiative impacts of CO$_2$ on rainfall patterns over tropical forest regions are examined in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1.1 (E3SMv1.1-BGC) biogeochemistry experiments. Composite analysis reveals a dampening of the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Amazon, Congo, and Maritime Continent in response to rising CO$_2$ levels, regardless of the sign of total rainfall change. A full factorial model experiment confirms that the CO$_2$ radiative and CO$_2$ plant physiological effects can individually or jointly reduce the magnitude of the rainfall diurnal cycle, though the physical pathway giving rise to the reduction differs between the two effects. For the physiological response, stomatal closure reduces evapotranspiration, which dries the boundary layer and raises the lifting condensation level. These effects combine to reduce deep convective rainfall during its peak occurrence in the late daytime to early nighttime period. For the radiative response, a relative reduction in daytime CAPE (consistent with a reduction in the diurnal temperature range) leads to less frequent triggering of deep convection and a reduction of rainfall diurnal amplitude. These diurnal rainfall changes are structurally similar across seasons, and show little sensitivity to representation of nutrient coupling for the land biogeochemistry. In agreement with previous findings, the physiological response has only minor impact on extreme rainfall relative to the radiative response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Outer Radiation Belt Flux and Phase Space Density Response to Sheath Regions: Van Allen Probes and GPS Observations

Turbulent and compressed sheath regions preceding interplanetary coronal mass ejections strongly impact electron dynamics in the outer radiation belt. Changes in electron flux can occur on timescales of tens of minutes, which are unlikely to be captured by a two-satellite mission. The recently released Global Positioning System (GPS) data set generally has shorter revisit times (at L ~ 4–8) owing to the large number of satellites in the constellation equipped with energetic particle detectors. Investigating electron fluxes at energies from 140 keV to 4 MeV and sheaths observed in 2012–2018, we show that the flux response to sheaths on a timescale of 6 hr, previously reported from Van Allen Probes (RBSP) data, is reproduced by GPS measurements. Furthermore, GPS data enables derivation of the response on a timescale of 30 min, which further confirms that the energy and L-shell dependent changes in electron flux are associated with the impact of the sheath. Sheath-driven loss is underestimated over longer timescales as the electrons recover during the ejecta. We additionally show the response of electron phase space density (PSD), which is a key quantity in identifying non-adiabatic loss from the system and electron energization through wave-particle interactions. The PSD response is calculated from both RBSP and GPS data for the 6 hr timescale, as well as from GPS data for the 30 min timescale. The response is divided based on the geoeffectiveness of the sheaths revealing that electrons are effectively accelerated only during geoeffective sheaths, while loss commonly occurs during all sheaths.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Explicit Consideration of Plant Xylem Hydraulic Transport Improves the Simulation of Crop Response to Atmospheric Dryness in the U.S. Corn Belt

Abstract Atmospheric dryness (i.e., high vapor pressure deficit, VPD), together with soil moisture stress, limits plant photosynthesis and threatens ecosystem functioning. Regions where rainfall and soil moisture are relatively sufficient, such as the rainfed part of the U.S. Corn Belt, are especially prone to high VPD stress. With globally projected rising VPD under climate change, it is crucial to understand, simulate, and manage its negative impacts on agricultural ecosystems. However, most existing models simulating crop response to VPD are highly empirical and insufficient in capturing plant response to high VPD, and improved modeling approaches are urgently required. In this study, by leveraging recent advances in plant hydraulic theory, we demonstrate that the VPD constraints in the widely used coupled photosynthesis‐stomatal conductance models alone are inadequate to fully capture VPD stress effects. Incorporating plant xylem hydraulic transport significantly improves the simulation of transpiration under high VPD, even when soil moisture is sufficient. Our results indicate that the limited water transport capability from the plant root to the leaf stoma could be a major mechanism of plant response to high VPD stress. We then introduce a Demand‐side Hydraulic Limitation Factor (DHLF) that simplifies the xylem and the leaf segments of the plant hydraulic model to only one parameter yet captures the effect of plant hydraulic transport on transpiration response to high VPD with similar accuracy. We expect the improved understanding and modeling of crop response to high VPD to help contribute to better management and adaptation of agricultural systems in a changing climate.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Surface Energy Balance Responses to Radiative Forcing in the Central Arctic From MOSAiC and Models

The Arctic surface energy budget (SEB) couples the atmosphere with the sea ice, making it useful for both studying surface processes as well as evaluating models. Improved understanding of atmosphere-ice interactions is required to improve models, requiring year-round observations to address seasonally dependent biases. This work uses novel observations from the MOSAiC expedition to quantify the responses of surface fluxes to radiative forcing over sea ice throughout a complete annual cycle. We identify two primary regimes of flux response: an ice growth regime in winter and an ice melt regime in summer. In the growth regime, changes in radiative forcing impact upwelling longwave, sensible heat, and subsurface heat fluxes, whereas in the melt regime changes in radiative forcing primarily alter the amount of melt and subsurface transmission because the surface temperature is fixed. These observed responses of surface fluxes to radiative forcing are used to evaluate seven weather forecast models during the ice growth regime. In most models, the responses of surface fluxes to radiative forcing do not match observations. Many models also have biased downwelling longwave. One model (the Coupled Arctic Forecast System; CAFS) adequately captures both the mean radiative forcing and the flux responses in winter. CAFS is further evaluated against observations spanning the full MOSAiC year, demonstrating sufficient agreement to provide a more generalized understanding of these SEB process relationships across the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Groundwater Response and Uncertainty in Beaver‐Influenced Mountainous Floodplains Using Machine Learning‐Based Model Calibration

Abstract Beavers ( Castor canadensis ) alter river corridor hydrology by creating ponds and inundating floodplains, and thereby improving surface water storage. However, the impact of inundation on groundwater, particularly in mountainous alluvial floodplains with permeable gravel/cobble layers overlain by a soil layer, remains uncertain. Numerical modeling across various floodplain structures considers topographic and sediment complexity and multidirectional flow, linking inundation to groundwater response. This study develops a model‐data integration workflow to address uncertainty in groundwater response to beaver‐induced inundations in a mountainous alluvial floodplain in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Uncertain factors include seasonal hydrologic dynamics, hydraulic conductivities, floodplain structures, and meteorological forcings. We employed an ensemble of groundwater models, based on geophysical and hydrologic data, with machine learning‐based calibration using a neural density estimator. This allowed us to quantify the vertical flux from the soil layer to the permeable gravel bed, the down‐valley underflow within the gravel bed, and their ratios. Results show a significant increase in the vertical flux relative to down‐valley underflow, from 2 during dry pond periods to 20 during wet periods, serving as an analogy for conditions without and with beaver ponds. The study highlights the influence of floodplain structure on groundwater storage, water balance, and water quality impacted by beaver ponds. A thick gravel bed layer, with a large down‐valley underflow, minimizes the effect of beaver‐induced inundation on water quality. We emphasize the need for field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure and improved characterization of evapotranspiration changes to reduce uncertainty in groundwater response. Plain Language Summary Beavers change the flow of water in river corridors by creating ponds, expanding wetlands, and flooding floodplains. This increases surface water area, promotes plant growth, and enhances biodiversity. However, the impact of this flooding on groundwater flow is not well understood, especially in mountainous areas with gravel layers where water moves easily beneath soil. In this study, we used numerical modeling to investigate how beaver ponds influence groundwater in a mountainous floodplain of the Upper Colorado River Basin. We adapted a machine learning method to validate our numerical models using multiple field data sets. Our findings show that beaver ponds significantly increase vertical water flow from the soil to the gravel during wet periods, compared to when the ponds are fully drained. The study also highlights the importance of floodplain structure in controlling both water flow in gravel layers along the river direction and vertical flow from the soil to the gravel with the presence of beavers. To reduce uncertainty in groundwater response, we emphasize the need for more field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure, hydraulic properties, and evapotranspiration changes. Key Points Floodplain structures and hydraulic conductivities are important for groundwater response with beaver ponds in mountainous floodplains Large down‐valley underflow in permeability‐stratified floodplains reduces beaver‐induced impacts on groundwater storage and water quality Machine learning‐based model calibration methods are effective for estimating posterior distributions of groundwater model parameters

Wang, Lijing↗

Global and regional perspectives on optimizing thermo-responsive dynamic windows for energy-efficient buildings

Architectural thermo-responsive dynamic windows offer an autonomous solution for solar heat regulation, thereby reducing building energy consumption. Previous work has emphasized the significance of thermo-responsive windows in hot climates due to their role in solar heat control and subsequent energy conservation; conversely, our study provides a different perspective. Through a global-scale analysis, we explore over 100 material samples and execute more than 2.8 million simulations across over two thousand global locations. World heatmap results, derived from well-trained artificial neural network models, reveal that thermo-responsive windows are especially useful in climates where buildings demand both heating and cooling energy, whereas thermo-responsive windows with optimal transition temperatures show no dynamic features in most of low-latitude tropical regions. Additionally, this study provides a practical guideline and an open-source mapping tool to optimize the intrinsic properties of thermo-responsive materials and evaluate their energy performance for sustainable buildings at various geographical scales.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cancer genomics predicts disease relapse and therapeutic response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy of hormone sensitive breast cancers

Several studies provide insight into the landscape of breast cancer genomics with the genomic characterization of tumors offering exceptional opportunities in defining therapies tailored to the patient’s specific need. However, translating genomic data into personalized treatment regimens has been hampered partly due to uncertainties in deviating from guideline based clinical protocols. Here we report a genomic approach to predict favorable outcome to treatment responses thus enabling personalized medicine in the selection of specific treatment regimens. The genomic data were divided into a training set of N = 835 cases and a validation set consisting of 1315 hormone sensitive, 634 triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) and 1365 breast cancer patients with information on neoadjuvant chemotherapy responses. Patients were selected by the following criteria: estrogen receptor (ER) status, lymph node invasion, recurrence free survival. The k-means classification algorithm delineated clusters with low- and high- expression of genes related to recurrence of disease; a multivariate Cox’s proportional hazard model defined recurrence risk for disease. Classifier genes were validated by Immunohistochemistry (IHC) using tissue microarray sections containing both normal and cancerous tissues and by evaluating findings deposited in the human protein atlas repository. Based on the leave-on-out cross validation procedure of 4 independent data sets we identified 51-genes associated with disease relapse and selected 10, i.e. TOP2A, AURKA, CKS2, CCNB2, CDK1 SLC19A1, E2F8, E2F1, PRC1, KIF11 for in depth validation. Expression of the mechanistically linked disease regulated genes significantly correlated with recurrence free survival among ER-positive and triple negative breast cancer patients and was independent of age, tumor size, histological grade and node status. Importantly, the classifier genes predicted pathological complete responses to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (P < 0.001) with high expression of these genes being associated with an improved therapeutic response toward two different anthracycline-taxane regimens; thus, highlighting the prospective for precision medicine. Our study demonstrates the potential of classifier genes to predict risk for disease relapse and treatment response to chemotherapies. The classifier genes enable rational selection of patients who benefit best from a given chemotherapy thus providing the best possible care. The findings encourage independent clinical validation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Ensemble transfer learning for the prediction of anti-cancer drug response

Abstract Transfer learning, which transfers patterns learned on a source dataset to a related target dataset for constructing prediction models, has been shown effective in many applications. In this paper, we investigate whether transfer learning can be used to improve the performance of anti-cancer drug response prediction models. Previous transfer learning studies for drug response prediction focused on building models to predict the response of tumor cells to a specific drug treatment. We target the more challenging task of building general prediction models that can make predictions for both new tumor cells and new drugs. Uniquely, we investigate the power of transfer learning for three drug response prediction applications including drug repurposing, precision oncology, and new drug development, through different data partition schemes in cross-validation. We extend the classic transfer learning framework through ensemble and demonstrate its general utility with three representative prediction algorithms including a gradient boosting model and two deep neural networks. The ensemble transfer learning framework is tested on benchmark in vitro drug screening datasets. The results demonstrate that our framework broadly improves the prediction performance in all three drug response prediction applications with all three prediction algorithms.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Enzalutamide response in a panel of prostate cancer cell lines reveals a role for glucocorticoid receptor in enzalutamide resistant disease

Representative in vitro model systems that accurately model response to therapy and allow the identification of new targets are important for improving our treatment of prostate cancer. Here we describe molecular characterization and drug testing in a panel of 20 prostate cancer cell lines. The cell lines cluster into distinct subsets based on RNA expression, which is largely driven by functional Androgen Receptor (AR) expression. KLK3 , the AR-responsive gene that encodes prostate specific antigen, shows the greatest variability in expression across the cell line panel. Other common prostate cancer associated genes such as TMPRSS2 and ERG show similar expression patterns. Copy number analysis demonstrates that many of the most commonly gained (including regions containing TERC and MYC ) and lost regions (including regions containing TP53 and PTEN) that were identified in patient samples by the TCGA are mirrored in the prostate cancer cell lines. Assessment of response to the anti-androgen enzalutamide shows a distinct separation of responders and non-responders, predominantly related to status of wild-type AR. Surprisingly, several AR-null lines responded to enzalutamide. These AR-null, enzalutamide-responsive cells were characterized by high levels of expression of glucocorticoid receptor (GR) encoded by NR3C1 . Treatment of these cells with the anti-GR agent mifepristone showed that they were more sensitive to this drug than enzalutamide, as were several of the enzalutamide non-responsive lines. This is consistent with several recent reports that suggest that GR expression is an alternative signaling mechanism that can bypass AR blockade. This study reinforces the utility of large cell line panels for the study of cancer and identifies several cell lines that represent ideal models to study AR-null cells that have upregulated GR to sustain growth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Arctic sea-ice loss drives a strong regional atmospheric response over the North Pacific and North Atlantic on decadal scales

Previous studies have suggested that Arctic sea-ice loss can have a profound influence on atmospheric circulation far away from the Arctic. However, there is little scientific consensus on the features of these remote responses, with the opposite impacts reported. Here we present a multi-model analysis of the decadal climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss using state-of-the-art energy conserving methodologies to isolate the impacts of sea-ice decline. We observe weakening of the Aleutian Low and development of a geopotential ridge in the North Pacific, associated with drier winter conditions over the southwest United States. Over the Atlantic, a negative NAO-like response drives wetter winter conditions across the western Mediterranean. These decadal-scale impacts substantially differ from reported centennial-scale responses to Arctic sea-ice loss simulated using non-energy conserving methodologies. Factors such as the timescale of the response and methodologies used to isolate the impacts of disappearing sea-ice cover should be carefully considered when consolidating scientific understanding on the future impacts of changing Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Phenotypic plasticity of fungal traits in response to moisture and temperature

Phenotypic plasticity of traits is commonly measured in plants to improve understanding of organismal and ecosystem responses to climate change but is far less studied for microbes. Specifically, decomposer fungi are thought to display high levels of phenotypic plasticity and their functions have important implications for ecosystem dynamics. Assessing the phenotypic plasticity of fungal traits may therefore be important for predicting fungal community response to climate change. Here, we assess the phenotypic plasticity of 15 fungal isolates (12 species) from a Southern California grassland. Fungi were incubated on litter at five moisture levels (ranging from 4–50% water holding capacity) and at five temperatures (ranging from 4–36 °C). After incubation, fungal biomass and activities of four extracellular enzymes (cellobiohydrolase (CBH), β -glucosidase (BG), β -xylosidase (BX), and N-acetyl- β - D -glucosaminidase (NAG)) were measured. We used response surface methodology to determine how fungal phenotypic plasticity differs across the moisture-temperature gradient. We hypothesized that fungal biomass and extracellular enzyme activities would vary with moisture and temperature and that the shape of the response surface would vary between fungal isolates. We further hypothesized that more closely related fungi would show more similar response surfaces across the moisture-temperature gradient. In support of our hypotheses, we found that plasticity differed between fungi along the temperature gradient for fungal biomass and for all the extracellular enzyme activities. Plasticity also differed between fungi along the moisture gradient for BG activity. These differences appear to be caused by variation mainly at the moisture and temperature extremes. We also found that more closely related fungi had more similar extracellular enzymes activities at the highest temperature. Altogether, this evidence suggests that with global warming, fungal biodiversity may become increasingly important as functional traits tend to diverge along phylogenetic lines at higher temperatures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Correlating structural changes in thermoresponsive hydrogels to the optical response of embedded plasmonic nanoparticles

Stimuli-responsive microgels, composed of small beads with soft, deformable polymer networks swollen through a combination of synthetic control over the polymer and its interaction with water, form a versatile platform for development of multifunctional and biocompatible sensors. The interfacial structural variation of such materials at a nanometer length scale is essential to their function, but not yet fully comprehended. Here, we take advantage of the plasmonic response of a gold nanorod embedded in a thermoresponsive microgel (AuNR@PNIPMAm) to monitor structural changes in the hydrogel directly near the nanorod surface. By direct comparison of the plasmon response against measurements of the hydrogel structure from dynamic light scattering and nuclear magnetic resonance, we find that the microgel shell of batch-polymerized AuNR@PNIPMAm exhibits a heterogeneous volume phase transition reflected by different onset temperatures for changes in the hydrodyanmic radius (R H ) and plasmon resonance, respectively. The new approach of contrasting plasmonic response (a measure of local surface hydrogel structure) with R H and relaxation times paves a new path to gain valuable insight for the design of plasmonic sensors based on stimuli-responsive hydrogels.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Simulating the non-monotonic strain response of nanoporous multiferroic composites under electric field control

In this work, we simulate and analyze the mechanical response of a class of multiferroic materials consisting of a templated porous nanostructure made out of cobalt ferrite (CFO) partially filled by atomic layer deposition (ALD) with a ferroelectric phase of lead zirconate titanate (PZT). The strain in the device is measured when an electric field is applied for varying ALD thicknesses, displaying a non-monotonic dependence with a maximum strain achieved for a coating thickness of 3 nm. To understand this behavior, we apply finite element modeling to the smallest repeatable unit of the nanoporous template and simulate the mechanical response as a function of PZT coating thickness. We find that this non-monotonic response is caused by the interplay between two driving forces opposing one another. First, increased porosity works toward increasing the strain due to a reduced system stiffness. Second, decreased porosity involves a larger mass fraction of PZT, which drives the electro-mechanical response of the structure, thus leading to a larger strain. The balance between these two driving forces is controlled by the shear coupling at the CFO/PZT interface and the effective PZT cross section along the direction of the applied electric field. Here, our numerical results show that considering a nonlinear piezoelectric response for PZT leads to an improved agreement with the experimental data, consistent with ex situ poling of the nanostructure prior to magnetic measurements.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range

Changes in plant phenology associated with climate change have been observed globally. What is poorly known is whether and how phenological responses to climate warming will differ from year to year, season to season, habitat to habitat, or species to species. Here, we present 5 y of phenological responses to experimental warming for 10 subboreal tree species. Research took place in the open-air B4WarmED experiment in Minnesota. The design is a two habitat (understory and open) × three warming treatments (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) factorial at two sites. Phenology was measured twice weekly during the growing seasons of 2009 through 2013. We found significant interannual variation in the effect of warming and differences among species in response to warming that relate to geographic origin and plant functional group. Moreover, responses to experimental temperature variation were similar to responses to natural temperature variation. Warming advanced the date of budburst more in early compared to late springs, suggesting that to simulate interannual variability in climate sensitivity of phenology, models should employ process-based or continuous development approaches. Differences among species in timing of budburst were also greater in early compared to late springs. Our results suggest that climate change—which will make most springs relatively “early”—could lead to a future with more variable phenology among years and among species, with consequences including greater risk of inappropriately early leafing and altered interactions among species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Competition response of cloud supersaturation explains diminished Twomey effect for smoky aerosol in the tropical Atlantic

The Twomey effect brightens clouds by increasing aerosol concentrations, which activates more droplets and decreases cloud supersaturation in response to more competition for water vapor. To quantify this competition response, we used marine low cloud observations in clean and smoky conditions at Ascension Island in the tropical South Atlantic during the Layered Aerosol Smoke Interactions with Cloud (LASIC) campaign. These observations show similar increases in droplet number for increased accumulation-mode particles from surface-based and satellite cloud retrievals, demonstrating the importance of below-cloud aerosol measurements for retrieving aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) in clean and smoky aerosol conditions. Four methods for estimating cloud supersaturation from aerosol–cloud measurements were compared, with cloud scene-based and parcel-based methods showing sufficient variability for a strong dependence on both aerosol accumulation number concentration and cloud-base updraft velocities. Decomposing aerosol-related changes in cloud albedo and optical depth shows the calculated competition response accounts for dampening the activation response by 12 to 35%, explaining the diminished Twomey effect at high aerosol concentrations observed for smoky conditions at LASIC and previously around the world. This result was consistent for independent supersaturation retrievals by cloud scene-based droplet number and cloud condensation nuclei and parcel-based multimode size-resolving Lagrangian methods. Translating aerosol effects to local radiative forcing with clean conditions as a proxy for preindustrial and smoky conditions for present-day showed that the competition response reduces cooling from the Twomey radiative forcing by 12 to 35%, providing an essential process-specific constraint for improving the representation of aerosol competition in climate model simulation of indirect aerosol forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗