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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Comparing probabilistic and descriptive analyses of time–dose–toxicity relationship for determining no-observed-adverse-effect level in drug development

The no-observed-adverse-effect level (NOAEL) of a drug defined from animal studies is important for inferring a maximal safe dose in human. However, several issues are associated with its concept, determination and application. It is confined to the actual doses used in the study; becomes lower with increasing sample size or dose levels; and reflects the risk level seen in the experiment rather than what may be relevant for human. We explored a pharmacometric approach in an attempt to address these issues. We first used simulation to examine the behaviour of the NOAEL values as determined by current common practice; and then fitted the probability of toxicity as a function of treatment duration and dose to data collected from all applicable toxicology studies of a test compound. Our investigation was in the context of an irreversible toxicity that is detected at the end of the study. Simulations illustrated NOAEL's dependency on experimental factors such as dose and sample size, as well as the underlying uncertainty. Modelling the probability as a continuous function of treatment duration and dose simultaneously to data from multiple studies allowed the estimation of the dose, along with its confidence interval, for a maximal risk level that might be deemed as acceptable for human. The model-based data integration also reconciled between-study inconsistency and explicitly provided maximised estimation confidence. Such alternative NOAEL determination method should be explored for its more efficient data use, more quantifiable insight to toxic doses, and the potential for more relevant animal-to-human translation. - Highlights: • Simulations revealed issues with NOAEL concept, determination and application. • Probabilistic modelling was used to address these issues. • The model integrated time-dose-toxicity data from multiple studies. • The approach uses data efficiently and may allow more meaningful human translation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Quantification and probabilistic modeling of CRT obsolescence for the State of Delaware

Highlights: • We modeled the obsolescence of cathode ray tube devices in the State of Delaware. • 411,654 CRT units or ∼16,500 metric tons have been recycled in Delaware since 2002. • The peak of the CRT obsolescence in Delaware passed by 2012. • The Delaware average CRT recycling rate between 2002 and 13 was approximately 27.5%. • CRTs will continue to infiltrate the system likely until 2033. - Abstract: The cessation of production and replacement of cathode ray tube (CRT) displays with flat screen displays have resulted in the proliferation of CRTs in the electronic waste (e-waste) recycle stream. However, due to the nature of the technology and presence of hazardous components such as lead, CRTs are the most challenging of electronic components to recycle. In the State of Delaware it is due to this challenge and the resulting expense combined with the large quantities of CRTs in the recycle stream that electronic recyclers now charge to accept Delaware’s e-waste. Therefore it is imperative that the Delaware Solid Waste Authority (DSWA) understand future quantities of CRTs entering the waste stream. This study presents the results of an assessment of CRT obsolescence in the State of Delaware. A prediction model was created utilizing publicized sales data, a variety of lifespan data as well as historic Delaware CRT collection rates. Both a deterministic and a probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) were performed to forecast rates of CRT obsolescence to be anticipated in the State of Delaware. Results indicate that the peak of CRT obsolescence in Delaware has already passed, although CRTs are anticipated to enter the waste stream likely until 2033.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Proxy Method to Bridge LCA Data Gaps Using Automated Material Classification and Probabilistic Under-Specification

Life cycle assessments (LCAs) are essential for understanding the environmental impacts of material production. However, gaps in life cycle inventory (LCI) data for material and chemical inputs present a key challenge for LCA practitioners, especially in the early design stages. Strategies for filling in these gaps require additional time and expertise, which can hinder the LCA’s completion. This study combined automatic material classification and probabilistic under-specification to create a time-efficient method to fill material LCI data gaps. To illustrate the proposed method, proxy environmental impact distributions were generated using publicly available material LCI data classified into the ChemOnt chemical taxonomy using the open-source chemical classification software ClassyFire. Input materials with data gaps were then classified into the same taxonomy, where proxy environmental impact values could be selected from the available distributions to quickly fill in any data gaps. Although these methods were applied to classify material production processes available in the Federal LCA Commons and Ecoinvent databases, they can be applied to any LCA database. This study shows that classifying materials by their chemical structure produces taxonomies with increased granularity relative to industrial classification, improving the ability of under-specified proxy data to be used for differentiating the environmental impacts of competing designs.

biological databases↗
DOE OSTI2022

Active learning of chemical reaction networks via probabilistic graphical models and Boolean reaction circuits

Discerning networks of many reactions among multiple interconverting species is challenging. Here, we present a reaction network identification methodology. Our methodology enumerates all stoichiometrically and chemically feasible reactions and requires statistical evidence from effluent concentrations for the inclusion or exclusion of each from the reaction network, contrasting with the commonly seen incremental approach and other work of relying heavily upon chemical intuition and assuming the reactions occurring. Using graph theory alongside an active learning design of experiments that propose maximally informative feeds, we identify the underlying reaction network with minimal laboratory runs. Here, we introduce chemistry-probabilistic graphical modeling and Boolean reaction circuits to statistically quantify which reactions occur from effluent concentrations. Our methodology accurately discerns active reactions, as showcased upon a laboratory network of cross-ketonization of furoic and lauric acid and validated upon simulated networks of thermal and CO 2 -assisted ethane dehydrogenation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2012

A probabilistic model for the identification of confinement regimes and edge localized mode behavior, with implications to scaling laws

Pattern recognition is becoming an important tool in fusion data analysis. However, fusion diagnostic measurements are often affected by considerable statistical uncertainties, rendering the extraction of useful patterns a significant challenge. Therefore, we assume a probabilistic model for the data and perform pattern recognition in the space of probability distributions. We show the considerable advantage of our method for identifying confinement regimes and edge localized mode behavior, and we discuss the potential for scaling laws.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Multilevel probabilistic approach to evaluate manufacturing defect in composite aircraft structures

In this work it is developed a reliable approach and its feasibility to the design and analysis of a composite structures. The metric is compared the robustness and reliability designs versus the traditional design, to demonstrate the gain that can be achieved with a probabilistic approach. The use of the stochastic approach of the uncertain parameteters in combination with the multi-scale levels analysis is the main objective of this paper. The work is dedicated to analyze the uncertainties in the design, tests, manufacturing process, and key gates such as materials characteristic.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

The probabilistic distribution of metal whisker lengths

Significant reliability concerns in multiple industries are related to metal whiskers, which are random high aspect ratio filaments growing on metal surfaces and causing shorts in electronic packages. We derive a closed form expression for the probabilistic distribution of metal whisker lengths. Our consideration is based on the electrostatic theory of metal whiskers, according to which whisker growth is interrupted when its tip enters a random local “dead region” of a weak electric field. Here, we use the approximation neglecting the possibility of thermally activated escapes from the “dead regions,” which is later justified. We predict a one-parameter distribution with a peak at a length that depends on the metal surface charge density and surface tension. In the intermediate range, it fits well the log-normal distribution used in the experimental studies, although it decays more rapidly in the range of very long whiskers. In addition, our theory quantitatively explains how the typical whisker concentration is much lower than that of surface grains. Finally, it predicts the stop-and-go phenomenon for some of the whiskers growth.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2013

PROBABILISTIC CATALOGS FOR CROWDED STELLAR FIELDS

We present and implement a probabilistic (Bayesian) method for producing catalogs from images of stellar fields. The method is capable of inferring the number of sources N in the image and can also handle the challenges introduced by noise, overlapping sources, and an unknown point-spread function. The luminosity function of the stars can also be inferred, even when the precise luminosity of each star is uncertain, via the use of a hierarchical Bayesian model. The computational feasibility of the method is demonstrated on two simulated images with different numbers of stars. We find that our method successfully recovers the input parameter values along with principled uncertainties even when the field is crowded. We also compare our results with those obtained from the SExtractor software. While the two approaches largely agree about the fluxes of the bright stars, the Bayesian approach provides more accurate inferences about the faint stars and the number of stars, particularly in the crowded case.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

THE PANCHROMATIC HUBBLE ANDROMEDA TREASURY. IV. A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO INFERRING THE HIGH-MASS STELLAR INITIAL MASS FUNCTION AND OTHER POWER-LAW FUNCTIONS

We present a probabilistic approach for inferring the parameters of the present-day power-law stellar mass function (MF) of a resolved young star cluster. This technique (1) fully exploits the information content of a given data set; (2) can account for observational uncertainties in a straightforward way; (3) assigns meaningful uncertainties to the inferred parameters; (4) avoids the pitfalls associated with binning data; and (5) can be applied to virtually any resolved young cluster, laying the groundwork for a systematic study of the high-mass stellar MF (M {approx}> 1 M {sub Sun }). Using simulated clusters and Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the probability distribution functions, we show that estimates of the MF slope, {alpha}, are unbiased and that the uncertainty, {Delta}{alpha}, depends primarily on the number of observed stars and on the range of stellar masses they span, assuming that the uncertainties on individual masses and the completeness are both well characterized. Using idealized mock data, we compute the theoretical precision, i.e., lower limits, on {alpha}, and provide an analytic approximation for {Delta}{alpha} as a function of the observed number of stars and mass range. Comparison with literature studies shows that {approx}3/4 of quoted uncertainties are smaller than the theoretical lower limit. By correcting these uncertainties to the theoretical lower limits, we find that the literature studies yield ({alpha}) = 2.46, with a 1{sigma} dispersion of 0.35 dex. We verify that it is impossible for a power-law MF to obtain meaningful constraints on the upper mass limit of the initial mass function, beyond the lower bound of the most massive star actually observed. We show that avoiding substantial biases in the MF slope requires (1) including the MF as a prior when deriving individual stellar mass estimates, (2) modeling the uncertainties in the individual stellar masses, and (3) fully characterizing and then explicitly modeling the completeness for stars of a given mass. The precision on MF slope recovery in this paper are lower limits, as we do not explicitly consider all possible sources of uncertainty, including dynamical effects (e.g., mass segregation), unresolved binaries, and non-coeval populations. We briefly discuss how each of these effects can be incorporated into extensions of the present framework. Finally, we emphasize that the technique and lessons learned are applicable to more general problems involving power-law fitting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts

In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-solar ensemble prediction system and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Database observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by considering the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The analog ensemble calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes, such as reliability and statistical consistency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Will Stochastic Devices Play Nice With Others in Neuromorphic Hardware?: There’s More to a Probabilistic System Than Noisy Devices

Achieving brain-like efficiency in computing requires a co-design between the development of neural algorithms, brain-inspired circuit design, and careful consideration of how to use emerging devices. The recognition that leveraging device-level noise as a source of controlled stochasticity represents an exciting prospect of achieving brain-like capabilities in probabilistic neural algorithms, but the reality of integrating stochastic devices with deterministic devices in an already-challenging neuromorphic circuit design process is formidable. Here, we explore how the brain combines different signaling modalities into its neural circuits as well as consider the implications of more tightly integrated stochastic, analog, and digital circuits. Further, by acknowledging that a fully CMOS implementation is the appropriate baseline, we conclude that if mixing modalities is going to be successful for neuromorphic computing, it will be critical that device choices consider strengths and limitations at the overall circuit level.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Data-Driven Method for Adaptive Reserve Requirement Estimation via Probabilistic Net Load Forecasting

The University of Colorado Boulder Boulder, CO, 80309, USA With the increasing penetration of renewable energy, power systems are subject to more uncertainty. This makes power system reserve scheduling more challenging. Most of the current reserve requirement determination methods calculate reserve requirements based on historical data, which does not consider the real-time or future system uncertainty. In this paper, a data-driven method is developed to determine the non-spinning reserve requirement (NSRR) in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. The method follows the procedure of the current ERCOT method while adaptively determining the NSRR based on probabilistic net load forecasts. Case studies with two years of ERCOT data show that the developed method significantly reduces the NSRR by introducing an adaptive temporal resolution and update rate. Sensitivity analysis with different forecasting and percentile thresholds indicates the flexibility of the developed method.

non-spinning reserve↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Fidelity Learning for Distribution System Voltage Probabilistic Analysis with High Penetration of PVs

This paper proposes a multi-fidelity learning approach for distribution voltage probabilistic analysis with high penetration of PVs. Unlike the existing machine learning-based approaches that require a large number of high fidelity data to achieve satisfactory results, our approach strategically leverage massive low fidelity data from inaccurate model simulations and limited high fidelity historical data. The key idea is to use low-fidelity data to establish an initial model and then the high-fidelity data to calibrate and correct the constructed low-fidelity model. This allows us to fuse low- and high-fidelity data, yielding a high fidelity prediction model. Results obtained from a realistic feeder in US with 80% penetration of PVs show that the proposed approach can achieve a similar accuracy to the one with a large number of high fidelity data. This significantly highlights the advantages of the proposed method as compared to existing data-hungry machine learning methods. Different levels of fidelity data and their impacts are also investigated.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model-Free Probabilistic Forecasting of Nodal Voltages in Distribution Systems

As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems increases, so does the interest in forecasting relevant system variables to help mitigate the associated challenges. One such challenge is the more frequent occurrence of excessive voltages in distribution systems with higher shares of DERs. Accurate and reliable estimates together with forecasts of system states (i.e., nodal voltages) will therefore play a key role in improving the utilization of these variable and uncertain sources while mitigating potential operational risks. Whilst recent literature has explored machine learning (ML) methods for voltage estimation and their extrapolation for a short-time period into the future, few have taken uncertainty quantification into account, and these methods have not yet been translated into operations. This paper discusses the advantages offered by probabilistic voltage forecasts and proposes a non-parametric Bayesian method suitable for forecasting nodal voltages at short-term time horizons while accounting for uncertainties in load and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. We demonstrate the value of the proposed Gaussian process (GP) model for a case study using historical forecasts and observation data.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2021

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts

In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-Solar Ensemble System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by taking into account the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes such as reliability and statistical consistency.

analog ensemble↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Power Flow Based on a Gaussian Process Emulator

In this letter, a novel Gaussian process emulator is proposed, for the first time, to conduct the probabilistic power-flow calculation. Based on Bayesian inference, a Gaussian process emulator is trained and served as a nonparametric, reduced-order model of the nonlinear power-flow model. This emulator has allowed us to evaluate the time-consuming power-flow solver at the sampled values with a negligible computational cost. The simulations reveal the excellent performance of this method.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Convex Optimization of Integrated Power-Gas Energy Flow Model With Applications to Probabilistic Energy Flow

Energy flow calculation is a fundamental problem of the integrated power and gas system (IPGS) operation and planning. However, the nonlinear gas flow model introduces major challenges to the energy flow calculation. In this paper, we propose a tractably convex optimization model to solve the energy flow problem in IPGSs. It is demonstrated that the proposed optimization model has the same optimal solution as the original nonlinear steady energy flow model. Also, piecewise linearization is adopted to tightly linearize the nonlinear objective function of the model, which transforms the formulated convex optimization into a linear program one. Thus, the computation complexity of the proposed energy flow model is significantly reduced as compared with the existing methods. In addition, the proposed model can be extended to probabilistic energy flow estimation. Extensive case studies are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed energy flow model using three IPGSs.

42 ENGINEERING↗