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At least 541 records · Page 30

Numerical Simulations of Vortex Generator Vanes and Jets on a Flat Plate

Numerical simulations of a single low-profile vortex generator vane, which is only a small fraction of the boundary-layer thickness, and a vortex generating jet have been performed for flows over a flat plate. The numerical simulations were computed by solving the steady-state solution to the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. The vortex generating vane results were evaluated by comparing the strength and trajectory of the streamwise vortex to experimental particle image velocimetry measurements. From the numerical simulations of the vane case, it was observed that the Shear-Stress Transport (SST) turbulence model resulted in a better prediction of the streamwise peak vorticity and trajectory when compared to the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model. It is shown in this investigation that the estimation of the turbulent eddy viscosity near the vortex core, for both the vane and jet simulations, was higher for the SA model when compared to the SST model. Even though the numerical simulations of the vortex generating vane were able to predict the trajectory of the stream-wise vortex, the initial magnitude and decay of the peak streamwise vorticity were significantly under predicted. A comparison of the positive circulation associated with the streamwise vortex showed that while the numerical simulations produced a more diffused vortex, the vortex strength compared very well to the experimental observations. A grid resolution study for the vortex generating vane was also performed showing that the diffusion of the vortex was not a result of insufficient grid resolution. Comparisons were also made between a fully modeled trapezoidal vane with finite thickness to a simply modeled rectangular thin vane. The comparisons showed that the simply modeled rectangular vane produced a streamwise vortex which had a strength and trajectory very similar to the fully modeled trapezoidal vane.

Allan, Brian G.↗

Three Dimensional Numerical Simulation and Characterization of Crack Growth in the Weld Region of a Friction Stir Welded Structure

Friction stir welding (FSW) fabrication technology is being adopted in aerospace applications. The use of this technology can reduce production cost, lead-times, reduce structural weight and need for fasteners and lap joints, which are typically the primary locations of crack initiation and multi-site fatigue damage in aerospace structures. FSW is a solid state welding process that is well-suited for joining aluminum alloy components; however, the process introduces residual stresses (both tensile and compressive) in joined components. The propagation of fatigue cracks in a residual stress field and the resulting redistribution of the residual stress field and its effect on crack closure have to be estimated. To insure the safe insertion of complex integral structures, an accurate understanding of the fatigue crack growth behavior and the complex crack path process must be understood. A life prediction methodology for fatigue crack growth through the weld under the influence of residual stresses in aluminum alloy structures fabricated using FSW will be detailed. The effects and significance of the magnitude of residual stress at a crack tip on the estimated crack tip driving force are highlighted. The location of the crack tip relative to the FSW and the effect of microstructure on fatigue crack growth are considered. A damage tolerant life prediction methodology accounting for microstructural variation in the weld zone and residual stress field will lead to the design of lighter and more reliable aerospace structures

Seshadri, Banavara R.↗

Prediction and Predictability of the Madden Julian Oscillation in the NASA GEOS-5 Seasonal-to-Subseasonal System

In this study, we examine the prediction skill and predictability of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in a recent version of the NASA GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean coupled model run at at 1/2 degree horizontal resolution. The results are based on a suite of hindcasts produced as part of the NOAA SubX project, consisting of seven ensemble members initialized every 5 days for the period 1999-2015. The atmospheric initial conditions were taken from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and the ocean and the sea ice were taken from a GMAO ocean analysis. The land states were initialized from the MERRA-2 land output, which is based on observation-corrected precipitation fields. We investigated the MJO prediction skill in terms of the bivariate correlation coefficient for the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices. The correlation coefficient stays at or above 0.5 out to forecast lead times of 26-36 days, with a pronounced increase in skill for forecasts initialized from phase 3, when the MJO convective anomaly is located in the central tropical Indian Ocean. A corresponding estimate of the upper limit of the predictability is calculated by considering a single ensemble member as the truth and verifying the ensemble mean of the remaining members against that. The predictability estimates fall between 35-37 days (taken as forecast lead when the correlation reaches 0.5) and are rather insensitive to the initial MJO phase. The model shows slightly higher skill when the initial conditions contain strong MJO events compared to weak events, although the difference in skill is evident only from lead 1 to 20. Similar to other models, the RMM-index-based skill arises mostly from the circulation components of the index. The skill of the convective component of the index drops to 0.5 by day 20 as opposed to day 30 for circulation fields. The propagation of the MJO anomalies over the Maritime Continent does not appear problematic in the GEOS-5 hindcasts implying that the Maritime Continent predictability barrier may not be a major concern in this model. Finally, the MJO prediction skill in this version of GEOS-5 is superior to that of the current seasonal prediction system at the GMAO; this could be partly attributed to a slightly better representation of the MJO in the free running version of this model and partly to the improved atmospheric initialization from MERRA-2.

Achuthavarier, Deepthi↗

A Proposal for an Integrated Geophysical Strategy to "Follow the Water" on Mars

The search for subsurface water has become a primary focus of Mars exploration. Its abundance and distribution (both as ground ice and groundwater) have important implications for understanding the geologic, hydrologic, and climatic evolution of the planet; the potential origin and continued survival of life; and the accessibility of a critical in situ resource for sustaining future human explorers. For these reasons, a principal goal of the Mars science, astrobiology, and the HEDS programs is to determine the 3-D distribution and state of subsurface H2O, at a resolution sufficient to permit reaching any desired volatile target by drilling. The three targets most often discussed are: groundwater, massive deposits of near-surface ground ice (associated with the ponded discharge of the outflow channels or the relic of a former ocean), and ice-saturated frozen ground. Based on the present best estimates of mean annual surface temperature, crustal thermal conductivity, geothermal heat flow, and groundwater freezing temperature, the mean thickness of frozen ground on Mars is expected to vary from approx. = 2.5 - 5 km at the equator to approx. = 6.5 - 13 km at the poles. However, natural variations in both crustal heat flow and thermal conductivity are likely to result in significant local departures from these predicted values. The recent discovery of "young" fluvial-like features, emanating from the slopes of local scarps, raises the possibility that liquid water may also exist episodically at shallow (approx. = 100 - 500 m) depth; however, the true nature and absolute age of these features remains highly uncertain. Although the belief that Mars is water-rich is supported by a wide variety geologic evidence, our ignorance about the heterogeneous nature and thermal evolution of the planet's crust effectively precludes geomorphic or theoretical attempts to quantitatively assess the current geographic and subsurface vertical distribution of ground ice and groundwater . For this reason, any exploration activity (such as drilling) whose success is contingent on the presence of subsurface water, must be preceded by a comprehensive high-resolution geophysical survey capable of assessing whether local reservoirs of water and ice actually exist. Terrestrial experience has demonstrated that the accurate identification of such targets is likely to require the application of multiple geophysical techniques. In this abstract we propose an integrated strategy for the geophysical exploration of Mars that we believe represents the fastest, most cost-effect, and technically capable approach to identifying the state and distribution of subsurface water. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Clifford, S. M.↗

Power System Options Evaluated for the Radiation and Technology Demonstration Mission

The Radiation and Technology Demonstration (RTD) Mission is under joint study by three NASA Centers: the NASA Johnson Space Center, the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, and the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field. This Earth-orbiting mission, which may launch on a space shuttle in the first half of the next decade, has the primary objective of demonstrating high-power electric thruster technologies. Secondary objectives include better characterization of Earth's Van Allen trapped-radiation belts, measurement of the effectiveness of the radiation shielding for human protection, measurement of radiation effects on advanced solar cells, and demonstration of radiation-tolerant microelectronics. During the mission, which may continue up to 1 year, the 2000-kg RTD spacecraft will first spiral outward from the shuttle-deployed, medium-inclination, low Earth orbit. By the phased operation of a 10-kW Hall thruster and a 10-kW Variable Specific Impulse Magneto-Plasma Rocket, the RTD spacecraft will reach a low-inclination Earth orbit with a radius greater than five Earth radii. This will be followed by an inward spiraling orbit phase when the spacecraft deploys 8 to 12 microsatellites to map the Van Allen belts. The mission will conclude in low Earth orbit with the possible retrieval of the spacecraft by the space shuttle. A conceptual RTD spacecraft design showing two photovoltaic (PV) array wings, the Hall thruster with propellant tanks, and stowed microsatellites is presented. Early power system studies assessed five different PV array design options coupled with a 120-Vdc power management and distribution system (PMAD) and secondary lithium battery energy storage. Array options include (1) state-of-the-art 10-percent efficient three-junction amorphous SiGe thin-film cells on thin polymer panels deployed with an inflatable (or articulated) truss, (2) SCARLET array panels, (3) commercial state-of-the-art, planar PV array rigid panels with 25-percent efficient, three-junction GaInP2/GaAs/Ge solar cells, (4) rigid panels with 25-percent efficient, three-junction GaInP2/GaAs/Ge solar cells, in a 2 -concentrator trough configuration, and (5) thin polymer panels with 25-percent efficient, three-junction GaInP2/GaAs/Ge solar cells deployed with an inflatable (or articulated) truss. To assess the relative merits of these PV array design options, the study group developed a dedicated Fortran code to predict power system performance and estimate system mass. This code also modeled Earth orbital environments important for accurately predicting PV array performance. The most important environmental effect, solar cell radiation degradation, was calculated from electron-proton fluence input from the industry standard AE8/AP8 trapped radiation models and the concept of damage equivalence. Power systems were sized to provide 10 kW of thruster power and approximately 1 kW of spacecraft power at end of life. Of the five PV array design options, the option 1 (thin-film cells) power system was the most massive 590 kg, whereas the option 4 (trough concentrator) power system was the lightest 260 kg. Arguably, the lowest cost would come from the option 3 (commercial array panels) power system with an acceptable, albeit greater, system mass of 320 kg. Predicted power system performance during the spiral-out mission phase is shown the preceding graph for the option 5 (flexible-panel) array. From the results, the radiation-induced power loss over time is evident as the spacecraft slowly spirals outward through the trapped proton belt. The importance of the spiral trip time is also evident in the two curves representing 74-day and 182-day spiral-out periods. The longer spiral time introduces a beginning-of-life power oversizing penalty greater than 1 kW. Future studies will analyze power system performance and mass with a 50-Vdc power management and distribution architecture favorable to the VASIMR thruster and longer missions.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗

Thermal Analysis of the Advanced Technology Large Aperture Space Telescope (ATLAST) 8 Meter Primary Mirror

The Advanced Technology Large Aperture Space Telescope (ATLAST) preliminary design concept consists of an 8 meter diameter monolithic primary mirror enclosed in an insulated, optical tube with stray light baffles and a sunshade. ATLAST will be placed in orbit about the Sun-Earth L2 and will experience constant exposure to the sun. The insulation on the optical tube and sunshade serve to cold bias the telescope which helps to minimize thermal gradients. The primary mirror will be maintained at 280K with an active thermal control system. The geometric model of the primary mirror, optical tube, sun baffles, and sunshade was developed using Thermal Desktop(R) SINDA/FLUINT(R) was used for the thermal analysis and the radiation environment was analyzed using RADCAD(R). A XX node model was executed in order to characterize the static performance and thermal stability of the mirror during maneuvers. This is important because long exposure observations, such as extra-solar terrestrial planet finding and characterization, require a very stable observatory wave front. Steady state thermal analyses served to predict mirror temperatures for several different sun angles. Transient analyses were performed in order to predict thermal time constant of the primary mirror for a 20 degree slew or 30 degree roll maneuver. This paper describes the thermal model and provides details of the geometry, thermo-optical properties, and the environment which influences the thermal performance. All assumptions that were used in the analysis are also documented. Parametric analyses are summarized for design parameters including primary mirror coatings and sunshade configuration. Estimates of mirror heater power requirements are reported. The thermal model demonstrates results for the primary mirror heated from the back side and edges using a heater system with multiple independently controlled zones.

Hornsby, Linda↗

Validating an Air Traffic Management Concept of Operation Using Statistical Modeling

Validating a concept of operation for a complex, safety-critical system (like the National Airspace System) is challenging because of the high dimensionality of the controllable parameters and the infinite number of states of the system. In this paper, we use statistical modeling techniques to explore the behavior of a conflict detection and resolution algorithm designed for the terminal airspace. These techniques predict the robustness of the system simulation to both nominal and off-nominal behaviors within the overall airspace. They also can be used to evaluate the output of the simulation against recorded airspace data. Additionally, the techniques carry with them a mathematical value of the worth of each prediction-a statistical uncertainty for any robustness estimate. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is the process of quantitative characterization and ultimately a reduction of uncertainties in complex systems. UQ is important for understanding the influence of uncertainties on the behavior of a system and therefore is valuable for design, analysis, and verification and validation. In this paper, we apply advanced statistical modeling methodologies and techniques on an advanced air traffic management system, namely the Terminal Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (T-TSAFE). We show initial results for a parameter analysis and safety boundary (envelope) detection in the high-dimensional parameter space. For our boundary analysis, we developed a new sequential approach based upon the design of computer experiments, allowing us to incorporate knowledge from domain experts into our modeling and to determine the most likely boundary shapes and its parameters. We carried out the analysis on system parameters and describe an initial approach that will allow us to include time-series inputs, such as the radar track data, into the analysis

Statistical emulation↗

Developing a Hail and Wind Damage Swath Event Database from Daily MODIS True Color Imagery and Storm Reports for Impact Analysis and Applications

Hail and damaging winds are two threats associated with intense and severe thunderstorms that traverse the Midwest and Great Plains during the primary growing season. In certain severe thunderstorm events, large swaths of agricultural crops are impacted, allowing the damage to be viewed from multiple satellite remote sensing platforms. Previous studies have focused on analyzing individual hail and wind damage swaths (HWDSs) using satellite remote sensing, but these swaths have never been officially archived or documented. This lack of documentation has made it difficult to analyze the spatial extent and temporal frequency of HWDSs from year to year. This study utilizes daily true color imagery from MODIS aboard NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites and daily local storm reports from the Storm Prediction Center to build a database of HWDSs occurring in the months of May through August, for years 2000 through 2020. This database identified 1,646 HWDSs in 12 states throughout the Midwest and Great Plains, confirmed through a combination of archived severe weather warnings, radar information, and official storm reports. For each entry in the HWDS database, a geospatial outline is provided along with the most likely date of first visible damage from MODIS imagery as well as the physical characteristics and time of occurrence estimated from available warnings. This study also provides a summary of the radar characteristics for a portion of the database. This database will further the understanding of severe weather damage by hail and wind to agriculture to help understand the frequency of these events and assist in mapping the impacted areas.

Climatology↗

Degradation of small mare surface features

Ring-moat structures are interpreted as remnants of flow topography associated with mare emplacement. Measurements of narrow moats characterizing these small mare features reveal a contradiction between their inferred preservation and the degree of surface degradation predicted by theoretical erosional models. Moat widths smaller than 50 m are recorded in areas where erosional models predict that walls of craters three to four times as large should be degraded to slopes of 1 deg. Crater statistics in such regions provide estimates of equilibrium conditions for impact crater formation that are consistent with the degree of preservation of the narrow moats. Although relative ages determined by observation of crater wall slopes near 20 deg, may be appropriate, it is concluded that current erosional models are not valid down to impact-degraded slopes of 1 deg. Relative age estimates based on the inferred degraded state of highly subdued craters are believed to be invalid, particularly for late Eratosthenian-age and Copernican-age mare units. In regions displaying ring-moat structures, highly subdued craters larger than the average moat widths are intepreted as either endogenic features associated with the emplacement of mare flow units or degraded secondary craters, which are typically subdued at the outset.

Schultz, P. H.↗

The AGT101 technology - An automotive alternative

The Advanced Gas Turbine Powertrain System Development Project is oriented at providing the United States automotive industry the technology base necessary to produce gas turbine powertrains for automotive applications that will have: (1) reduced fuel consumption, (2) the ability to use a variety of fuels, (3) low emissions, and (4) competitive cost/performance. The AGT101 powertrain being developed consists of a regenerated single-shaft gas turbine engine flat rated at 74.6 kW (100 hp) coupled to a split-differential gearbox and a Ford automatic overdrive production transmission. Performance predictions for the AGT101 powertrain represent a 59-percent improvement in mileage estimates over a 1985 conventionally-powered automobile for the combined federal driving cycle.

Rackley, R. A.↗

Evaluation of 18 Satellite- and Model-Based Soil Moisture Products Using in Situ Measurements From 826 Sensors

Information about the spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture is critical for many purposes, including monitoring of hydrologic extremes, irrigation scheduling, and prediction of agricultural yields. We evaluated the temporal dynamics of 18 state-of-the-art (quasi-)global near-surface soil moisture products, including six based on satellite retrievals, six based on models without satellite data assimilation (referred to hereafter as “open-loop” models), and six based on models that assimilate satellite soil moisture or brightness temperature data. Seven of the products are introduced for the first time in this study: one multi-sensor merged satellite product called MeMo (Merged soil Moisture) and six estimates from the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) model with three precipitation inputs (ERA5, IMERG, and MSWEP) with and without assimilation of SMAPL3E satellite retrievals, respectively. As reference, we used in situ soil moisture measurements between 2015 and 2019 at 5 cm depth from 826 sensors, located primarily in the USA and Europe. The 3-hourly Pearson correlation (R) was chosen as the primary performance metric. We found that application of the Soil Wetness Index (SWI) smoothing filter resulted in improved performance for all satellite products. The best-to-worst performance ranking of the four single-sensor satellite products was SMAPL3E SWI , SMOS SWI , AMSR2 SWI , and ASCAT SWI , with the L-band-based SMAPL3E SWI (median R of 0.72) outperforming the others at 50 % of the sites. Among the two multi-sensor satellite products (MeMo and ESA-CCI SWI ), MeMo performed better on average (median R of 0.72 versus 0.67), probably due to the inclusion of SMAPL3E SWI . The best-to-worst performance ranking of the six open-loop models was HBV-MSWEP, HBV-ERA5, ERA5-Land, HBV-IMERG, VIC-PGF, and GLDAS-Noah. This ranking largely reflects the quality of the precipitation forcing. HBV-MSWEP (median R of 0.78) performed best not just among the open-loop models but among all products. The calibration of HBV improved the median R by +0.12 on average compared to random parameters, highlighting the importance of model calibration. The best-to-worst performance ranking of the six models with satellite data assimilation was HBV-MSWEP+SMAPL3E, HBV-ERA5+SMAPL3E, GLEAM, SMAPL4, HBV-IMERG+SMAPL3E, and ERA5. The assimilation of SMAPL3E retrievals into HBV-IMERG improved the median R by +0.06, suggesting that data assimilation yields significant benefits at the global scale.

Hylke E. Beck↗

The use of satellite estimates of rainfall in the initialization of a mesoscale hurricane model

The use of rainfall rate data obtained from satellites to improve the initial specification of the hurricane circulation is discussed with particular reference to the techniques for incorporating rainfall data into high-resolution hurricane models. The variation of latent heating in a numerical model of a steady state tropical cyclone is considered to ascertain what features of the storm motion can be deduced from a given field of latent heat release. A real-data example involving a mesoscale model for hurricane Eloise (1975) has demonstrated that satellite measurements of rainfall may be beneficial to numerical hurricane prediction.

Fiorino, M.↗

Building a Real-Time Flood Prediction Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of applied remote sensing analyses is increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP National Program partnered with the local government of Howard County, Maryland, to investigate the use of machine learning for advanced flood risk detection, and to test the feasibility of integrating this approach into the county’s flood early warning system. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the project developed a statistical model capable of hindcasting the two severe flash flood events that devastated Ellicott City and transitioned to a ‘Long Short-Term Memory’ based sequence-to-sequence deep learning model with 8-hour forecast capability. The team combined data inputs from public sources including river and precipitation gauges, NASA and NOAA Earth observations, and numerical weather model products using scripts written in the Google Colaboratory Python scripting environment. In addition to designing the deep learning architecture, the team trained and tested the model, and evaluated its performance using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. The final product, the Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM) predicts stage height for the Hudson Branch gauge in Ellicott City using data products available in near real-time, including the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model’s accumulated precipitation forecasts supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the U.S. Geological Survey. STREAM was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface capable of triggering the alarms that initiate emergency response protocols up to 8 hours in advance of a predicted severe flood event. The project demonstrated the potential for the integration of open data and Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing near real-time decision making.

NASA DEVELOP↗

Evaluation of the Williams-type spring wheat model in North Dakota and Minnesota

The Williams type model, developed similarly to previous models of C.V.D. Williams, uses monthly temperature and precipitation data as well as soil and topological variables to predict the yield of the spring wheat crop. The models are statistically developed using the regression technique. Eight model characteristics are examined in the evaluation of the model. Evaluation is at the crop reporting district level, the state level and for the entire region. A ten year bootstrap test was the basis of the statistical evaluation. The accuracy and current indication of modeled yield reliability could show improvement. There is great variability in the bias measured over the districts, but there is a slight overall positive bias. The model estimates for the east central crop reporting district in Minnesota are not accurate. The estimate of yield for 1974 were inaccurate for all of the models.

Leduc, S.↗

Future possibilities in objective analysis and data assimilation for atmospheric dynamics

The role that dynamics plays in estimating the state of the atmosphere from incomplete and noisy data is reviewed. Objective analysis represents an attempt at relying mostly on the data and minimizing the role of dynamics in the estimation. Data assimilation tries to balance properly the roles of dynamical and observational information. Sequential estimation is presented as the proper framework for understanding this balance, and the Kalman filter as the ideal, optimal procedure for data assimilation. The optimal filter computes forecast error covariances of a given atmospheric model exactly, and hence data assimilation should be closely connected with predictability studies. This connection is described, and consequences drawn for currently active areas of the atmospheric and related sciences, namely, mesoscale meteorology, long range forecasting, and upper ocean dynamics. Possibilities offered by judicious data assimilation in understanding barotropic adjustment, a phenomenon that appears to play a crucial role in atmospheric behavior on the scale of weeks to months, and hence in long range forecasting are addressed.

Ghil, M.↗

Coupled Riccati equations for complex plane constraint

A new Linear Quadratic Gaussian design method is presented which provides prescribed imaginary axis pole placement for optimal control and estimation systems. This procedure contributes another degree of design freedom to flexible spacecraft control. Current design methods which interject modal damping into the system tend to have little affect on modal frequencies, i.e., they predictably shift open plant poles horizontally in the complex plane to form the closed loop controller or estimator pole constellation, but make little provision for vertical (imaginary axis) pole shifts. Imaginary axis shifts which reduce the closed loop model frequencies (the bandwidths) are desirable since they reduce the sensitivity of the system to noise disturbances. The new method drives the closed loop modal frequencies to predictable (specified) levels, frequencies as low as zero rad/sec (real axis pole placement) can be achieved. The design procedure works through rotational and translational destabilizations of the plant, and a coupling of two independently solved algebraic Riccati equations through a structured state weighting matrix. Two new concepts, gain transference and Q equivalency, are introduced and their use shown.

Strong, Kristin M.↗

Mapping the Potential for Eolian Surface Activity in Grasslands of the High Plains using Landsat Images

There are over 100,000 square kilometers of eolian sand dunes and sand sheets in the High Plains of the central United States. These land-forms may be unstable and may reactivate again as a result of land-use, climate change, or natural climatic variability. The main goal of this thesis was to develop a model that could be used to map an estimate of future dune activity. Multi-temporal calibrated Landsats 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and 7 Enhanced Thematic Map per Plus (ETM+) NDVI imagery were used in conjunction with the CENTURY vegetation model to correlate vegetation cover to climatic variability. This allows the creation of a predicted vegetation map which, combined with current wind and soil data, was used to create a potential sand transport map for range land in the High Plains under drought conditions.

Gutmann, Ethan Dain↗

Analysis of Multiple Precipitation Products and Preliminary Assessment of Their Impact on Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Land Surface States

Land surface models (LSMs) are computer programs, similar to weather and climate prediction models, which simulate the stocks and fluxes of water (including soil moisture, snow, evaporation, and runoff) and energy (including the temperature of and sensible heat released from the soil) after they arrive on the land surface as precipitation and sunlight. It is not currently possible to measure all of the variables of interest everywhere on Earth with sufficient accuracy and space-time resolution. Hence LSMs have been developed to integrate the available observations with our understanding of the physical processes involved, using powerful computers, in order to map these stocks and fluxes as they change in time. The maps are used to improve weather forecasts, support water resources and agricultural applications, and study the Earth's water cycle and climate variability. NASA's Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) project facilitates testing of several different LSMs with a variety of input datasets (e.g., precipitation, plant type). Precipitation is arguably the most important input to LSMs. Many precipitation datasets have been produced using satellite and rain gauge observations and weather forecast models. In this study, seven different global precipitation datasets were evaluated over the United States, where dense rain gauge networks contribute to reliable precipitation maps. We then used the seven datasets as inputs to GLDAS simulations, so that we could diagnose their impacts on output stocks and fluxes of water. In terms of totals, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) had the closest agreement with the US rain gauge dataset for all seasons except winter. The CMAP precipitation was also the most closely correlated in time with the rain gauge data during spring, fall, and winter, while the satellitebased estimates performed best in summer. The GLDAS simulations revealed that modeled soil moisture is highly sensitive to precipitation, with differences in spring and summer as large as 45% depending on the choice of precipitation input.

Gottschalck, Jon↗