Persistent, widespread pulsating aurora: A case study
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Measurements over the past few years, taking place within the Multi-Informatics for Nuclear Operations Scenarios (MINOS) project, show that infrasound and low-frequency acoustic monitoring can detect, and often quantify, activities that occur on-site at a large research reactor. Observable activities include: crane translation, lifting, and lowering; differentiation between loaded and unloaded crane operations; access door opening and closing; vehicle operations; and cooling tower fan operation. Advanced data analytic and spectral feature extraction methods can be used to interpret selected signatures to reach a deeper understanding of different reactor activities. These measurements are being conducted using a network of smartphones that continuously operate in conjunction with cloud-based architectures. A recent addition to the system is the development and deployment of a real-time, cloud-based analytic framework that supports near-real-time alarming which can facilitate tip-and-cue protocols. This paper will present recent research advances in this area including studies to explore the transferability of learned parameters from one smartphone to another, the detectability of events from multiple sensors at different locations simultaneously, and the feasibility of porting analytical tools directly to the smartphones to allow edge computing with optimized configurations.
Measurements over the past few years, taking place within the Multi-Informatics for Nuclear Operations Scenarios project, show that infrasound and low-frequency acoustic monitoring can detect, and often quantify, activities that occur on-site at the High Flux Isotope Reactor. Observable activities include: crane translation, lifting, and lowering; differentiation between loaded and unloaded crane operations; access door opening and closing; vehicle operations; and cooling tower fan operations. Advanced data analytic and spectral feature extraction methods can be used to interpret selected signatures to reach a deeper understanding of different reactor activities. These measurements are being conducted using a network of smartphones that continuously operate in conjunction with cloud-based architectures. A recent addition to the system is the development and deployment of a real-time, cloud-based analytic framework that supports near-real-time alarming which can facilitate tip-and-cue protocols. This paper presents recent research in this area including the use of low-frequency acoustics to tip-off transfer operations and cue a more comprehensive analysis by other sensor networks.
Machine learning (ML) models have been applied to forecast solar energy; however, they often lack clarity of interpretability and underlying physics. This work addresses such challenges by developing a hierarchy of ML models that gradually introduce predictors to improve the forecast accuracy based on a physics-based framework. Three ML models (ARIMA, LSTM, and XGBoost) are examined and compared with four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I and the simple persistence model to assess the improvement of different models. The 7-year measurements at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement's Southern Great Plains Central Facility site are used for forecasts and evaluations. The results reveal that the step-by-step introduction of predictors leads to different improvements for models at different hierarchical levels. Comparison of the ML models with persistence models shows that LSTM and XGBoost outperform all the persistence models, with LSTM having the overall best performance; however, ARIMA underperforms the four physics-informed persistence models. This study demonstrates the importance and utility of incorporating physics into ML models in improving forecast accuracy by introducing a hierarchy of physics-based predictors, distinguishing predictor contributions, and enhancing the ML interpretability. The combined use of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) significantly improves the forecast accuracy compared to using individual irradiances alone because the pair contains more information on cloud-radiation interactions.
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important livestock diseases worldwide. Following the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of ruminants remain persistently infected for extended periods. Although extinction of this carrier state occurs continuously at the animal and population levels, studies vary widely in their estimates of the duration of persistent infection. There is a need for robust statistical models to capture the dynamics of persistent infection for the sake of guiding FMD control and trade policies. The goal of the current study was to develop and assess statistical models to describe the extinction of FMD virus (FMDV) persistent infection using data from primary longitudinal studies of naturally infected cattle and Asian buffalo in Vietnam and India. Specifically, accelerated failure time (AFT) models and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were developed to predict the probability of persistent infection in seropositive animals and identified carriers at the individual animal level at sequential time points after outbreaks. The primary studies were analyzed by country and combined using an individual-participant data meta-analysis approach. The models estimated similar trends in the duration of persistent infection for the study/species groups included in the analyses, however the significance of the trends differed between the models. The overall probabilities of persistent infection were similar as predicted by the AFT and GLMM models: 6 months: 99% (AFT) /80% (GLMM), 12 months: 51% (AFT) /32% (GLMM), 18 months: 6% (AFT) /5% (GLMM), 24 months: 0.8% (AFT) /0.6% (GLMM). These models utilizing diverse and robust data sets predict higher probabilities of persistence than previously published, suggesting greater endurance of carriers subsequent to an outbreak. This study demonstrates the utility of statistical models to investigate the dynamics of persistent infection and the importance of large datasets, which can be achieved by combining data from several smaller studies in meta-analyses. Results of this study enhance current knowledge of the FMDV carrier state and may inform policy decisions regarding FMDV persistent infection.
We use methods from computational algebraic topology to study functional brain networks, in which nodes represent brain regions and weighted edges represent similarity of fMRI time series from each region. With these tools, which allow one to characterize topological invariants such as loops in high-dimensional data, we are able to gain understanding into low-dimensional structures in networks in a way that complements traditional approaches based on pairwise interactions. In the present paper, we analyze networks constructed from task-based fMRI data from schizophrenia patients, healthy controls, and healthy siblings of schizophrenia patients using persistent homology, which allows us to explore the persistence of topological structures such as loops at different scales in the networks. We use persistence landscapes, persistence images, and Betti curves to create output summaries from our persistent-homology calculations, and we study the persistence landscapes and images using k-means clustering and community detection. Based on our analysis of persistence landscapes, we find that the members of the sibling cohort have topological features (specifically, their 1-dimensional loops) that are distinct from the other two cohorts. From the persistence images, we are able to distinguish all three subject groups and to determine the brain regions in the loops (with four or more edges) that allow us to make these distinctions.
By examining the magnetic structure at sites in the bright coronal interiors of active regions that are not flaring but exhibit persistent strong coronal heating, we establish some new characteristics of the magnetic origins of this heating. We have examined the magnetic structure of these sites in five active regions, each of which was well observed by both the Yohkoh SXT and the Marshall Space Flight Center Vector Magnetograph and showed strong shear in its magnetic field along part of at least one neutral line (polarity inversion). Thus, we can assess whether this form of nonpotential field structure in active regions is a characteristic of the enhanced coronal heating and vice versa. From 27 orbits' worth of Yohkoh SXT images of the five active regions, we have obtained a sample of 94 persistently bright coronal features (bright in all images from a given orbit), 40 long (greater than or approximately equals 20,000 km) neutral-line segments having strong magnetic shear throughout (shear angle greater than 45 deg), and 39 long neutral-line segments having weak magnetic shear throughout (shear angle less than 45 deg). From this sample, we find that: (1) all of our persistently bright coronal features are rooted in magnetic fields that are stronger than 150 G; (2) nearly all (95%) of these enhanced coronal features are rooted near neutral lines (closer than 10,000 km); (3) a great majority (80%) of the bright features are rooted near strong-shear portions of neutral lines; (4) a great majority (85%) of long strong-shear segments of neutral lines have persistently bright coronal features rooted near them; (5) a large minority (40%) of long weak-shear segments of neutral lines have persistently bright coronal features rooted near them; and (6) the brightness of a persistently bright Coronal feature often changes greatly over a few hours. From these results, we conclude that most persistent enhanced heating of coronal loops in active regions: (1) requires the presence of a polarity inversion in the magnetic field near at least one of the loop footpoints; (2) is greatly aided by the presence of strong shear in the core magnetic field along that neutral line; and (3) is controlled by some variable process that acts in this magnetic environment. We infer that this variable process is low-lying reconnection accompanying flux cancellation.
Biofertilizers are critical for sustainable agriculture because they can replace ecologically disruptive chemical fertilizers while improving the trajectory of soil and plant health. However, for improving deployment, the persistence of biofertilizers within native soil consortia must be elucidated and enhanced. In this study we characterized a high-throughput, modular, and automation-friendly in vitro approach to screen for biofertilizer persistence within soil-derived consortia after co-cultivation with stable synthetic soil microbial communities (SynComs) obtained through a top-down cultivation process. Here, we profiled ~1200 SynComs isolated from various soil sources and cultivated in divergent media types, and we detected significant phylogenetic diversity (e.g. Shannon index >4) and richness (observed richness >400) across these communities. We observed high reproducibility in SynCom community structure from common soil and media types, which provided a testbed for assessing biofertilizer persistence within representative native consortia. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the screening method described herein can be coupled with microbial engineering to efficiently identify soil-derived SynComs in which an engineered biofertilizer organism (i.e. Bacillus subtilis) persists. Accordingly, we discovered that B. subtilis persisted in ~10% of SynComs that generally followed the diversity–invasion principle. Additionally, our approach enabled analysis of the ecological impact of B. subtilis inoculation on SynCom structure and profile alterations in community diversity and richness associated with the presence of a genetically modified model bacterium. Ultimately, this work has established a modular pipeline that could be integrated into a variety of microbiology/microbiome-relevant workflows or related applications that would benefit from assessment of the persistence of a specific organism of interest and its interaction with native consortia.
Buried paleosols can store large quantities of organic carbon (C), much of which persists for millennia due to isolation from surface processes that promote decomposition. Subsoil organic matter (SOM) persistence is often enhanced by mineral associations and ionic conditions—particularly high clay content and polyvalent cations—that limit microbial degradation and leaching. However, the vulnerability of these deep C stocks under erosion or environmental change remains poorly understood. This study investigates controls on SOM stabilization in the Brady paleosol and overlying modern soils across contrasting geomorphic settings in the Great Plains of Nebraska where Late Quaternary loess deposition and erosion created a sequence of buried and exposed paleosols. We sampled soils along burial and erosional toposequences and analyzed their physicochemical properties and radiocarbon‐based persistence of occluded particulate organic matter (oPOM) and mineral fractions (MF). Brady paleosol showed greater persistence (lower Fm) of oPOM and MF than modern soils, particularly under burial. This was linked to higher silt and clay content, elevated electrical conductivity, and increased exchangeable calcium and magnesium content, supporting roles for organo‐mineral interactions, flocculation, and carbonate cementation. In modern soils, SOM persistence and C content were more strongly tied to pH and cation exchange capacity. Erosional exposure reduced SOM stability and promoted geochemical convergence toward modern surface soils. These findings show that burial enhances SOM persistence via multiple stabilization mechanisms, while erosion increases subsoil C vulnerability. Our results underscore the importance of geomorphic and geochemical context in predicting soil C stability under environmental change.
Aviation is projected to become an increasingly large contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Condensation trails (contrails) are visible cloud trails of water vapor made from aircraft engine exhaust. One study estimated that persistent contrails have contributed about 57% of total Effective Radiative Forcing from aviation operations. Airspace management can reduce persistent contrails and related climate change impacts. NAS Digital Twin simulation capability and Autoresolver conflict management service can be utilized to investigate persistent contrail formation avoidance. On three of the four days analyzed, TTBW persistent contrail formation length was about 10 percentage points less than Boeing 737-800 (around 3% vs 13%). On average, altitude change maneuvers in simulation reduced persistent contrail formation length by 69.8% for 0.4% increase in fuel burn and 1.2% increase in flight duration.
There is an emerging consensus that microorganisms are a primary source of persistent, slow-cycling soil organic matter (SOM), however which microbial residues contribute to SOM and what controls their accumulation remains unresolved. Lipids are a commonly overlooked biomolecular pool that could contribute significantly to stable SOM. While current estimates for phospholipid degradation in soils are rapid, lipids are structurally heterogeneous molecules that could turnover at different rates. Through a year-long soil incubation and compound-specific, stable isotope probing (SIP)-lipidomics, we were able to rigorously track the persistence of lipid compounds in silty and sandy switchgrass bioenergy crop soils. Here, we assessed the influence of lipid structure on soil lipid accrual and degradation as moderated by soil texture, since mineral association is presumed to be the primary mechanism for lipid persistence. After rapid incorporation of 13 C glucose into microbial biomass, we found 13 C label was retained broadly across chemically diverse lipid classes, even after one year. 13 C-labeled lipid profiles varied significantly with soil texture; however, we found no difference between sandy and silty soils in lipid retention, suggesting soil texture may only play a minor role in modulating lipid persistence. Only two lipid subclasses were found to be persistent (i.e., retention of 13 C label without significant degradation or production): phosphatidylinositol lipids and hydroxyceramide lipids, both of which are negatively charged, possibly facilitating stabilization by mineral complexation. However, several other subclasses displayed substantial ongoing production. In particular, the accumulation of triacylglycerol lipids across soil textures suggests that storage lipids may be an important component of SOC, highlighting a potential target for management strategies to promote C retention by lipid accrual. Overall, the retention for over a year of 13 C label in microbial intact lipid biomarkers reveals the importance of efficient biomass production and turnover when considering microbial C contributions to SOM.