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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Advancing Sea Ice Predictability in E3SM with Machine Learning

Focal area(s): To improve predictions of sea ice in E3SM we propose to develop a hierarchy of data-driven models using observational and simulation data to investigate the most important Earth system drivers of sea ice variability and loss, develop surrogates that build on the reduced parameter space of important drivers, and, where appropriate, couple machine learning models with standard PDE models to capture important physical behavior at different scales. This work falls under Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Is the trace anomaly at its minimum value at neutron star centers?

While the equation of state (EOS) 𝑃⁡(𝜖) of neutron star (NS) matter has been extensively studied, the EOS-parameter 𝜙 =𝑃/𝜖 or equivalently the dimensionless trace anomaly Δ =1/3 −𝜙, which quantifies the balance between pressure 𝑃 and energy density 𝜖, remains far less explored, especially in NS cores. Its bounds and density profile carry crucial information about the nature of superdense matter. Physically, the EOS-parameter 𝜙 represents the mean stiffness of matter accumulated from the stellar surface up to a given density. Based on the intrinsic structure of the Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff equations, we show that 𝜙 decreases monotonically outward from the NS center, independent of any specific input NS EOS model. Furthermore, observational evidence of a peak in the SSS density profile near the center effectively rules out a valley and a subsequent peak in the radial profile of 𝜙 at similar densities, reinforcing its monotonic decrease. Finally, these model-independent relations impose strong constraints on the near-center behavior of the EOS-parameter 𝜙, particularly demonstrating that the mean stiffness (or equivalently Δ) reaches a local maximum (minimum) at the center.

nuclear astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Two-neutrino double-𝛽 decay in pionless effective field theory from a Euclidean finite-volume correlation function

Two-neutrino double-β decay of certain nuclear isotopes is one of the rarest Standard Model processes observed in nature. Its neutrinoless counterpart is an exotic lepton-number nonconserving process that is widely searched to determine if the neutrinos are Majorana fermions. In order to connect the rate of these processes to the Standard Model and beyond the Standard Model interactions, it is essential that the corresponding nuclear matrix elements are constrained reliably from theory. Lattice quantum chromodynamics (LQCD) and low-energy effective field theories (EFTs) are expected to play an essential role in constraining the matrix element of the two-nucleon subprocess, which could in turn provide the input into ab initio nuclear-structure calculations in larger isotopes. Focusing on the two-neutrino process $nn\rightarrow pp(ee\bar{v}_{e}\bar{v}_e)$, the amplitude is constructed in this work in pionless EFT at next-to-leading order, demonstrating the emergence of a renormalization-scale independent amplitude and the absence of any new low-energy constant at this order beyond those present in the single-weak process. Most importantly, it is shown how a LQCD four-point correlation function in Euclidean and finite-volume spacetime can be used to constrain the Minkowski infinite-volume amplitude in the EFT. The same formalism is provided for the related single-weak process, which is an input to the double-β decay formalism. The LQCD-EFT matching procedure outlined for the double-weak amplitude paves the road toward constraining the two-nucleon matrix element entering the neutrinoless double-β decay amplitude with a light Majorana neutrino.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental Validation of Subsystem Models for a Novel Variable Displacement Hydraulic Motor

A novel, variable displacement, low-speed high-torque hydraulic motor is being developed that is expected to be highly efficient across a broad operating range. To ensure the final hardware achieves the expected performance, the models used in the development of the motor must be experimentally validated and revised, as necessary. The specific focus in this work is on mechanical energy loss models that were used to guide the design of a single-cylinder motor prototype and on experimental tests used for model validation. Ideally each model, whether friction loss in a piston/cylinder interface or energy loss due to leakage in a valve , would be individually validated by an independent test. This granular approach would remove any question of where the error lies and result in highly accurate models. However, many motor components have multiple forms of energy loss, creating difficulty in validating individual losses. Additionally, it is not physically realizable to divide many components into an individual model equivalent test. Testing the motor as a full assembly is possible, but pinpointing the source of discrepancies between the model and the hardware becomes difficult with dozens of models potentially being partially responsible. A compromise was found by separating the motor into functional component groups that are characterized by the type of loss and ability to test each subcomponent independently. By checking for correlation between test observations and model predictions, revisions could be implemented into the models. This allows future solutions to be more accurately predicted in the design phase to drive the design of better machines.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using an Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Characterize Earth System Model Errors: Application of SHAP Analysis to Modeling Lightning Flash Occurrence

Abstract Computational models of the Earth System are critical tools for modern scientific inquiry. Efforts toward evaluating and improving errors in representations of physical and chemical processes in these large computational systems are commonly stymied by highly nonlinear and complex error behavior. Recent work has shown that these errors can be effectively predicted using modern Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) techniques. In this work, we go beyond these previous studies to apply an explainable A.I. technique to not only predict model errors but also move toward understanding the underlying reasons for successful error prediction. We use XGBoost classification trees and SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis to explore the errors in the prediction of lightning occurrence in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, a widely used Earth System Model. This explainable error prediction system can effectively predict the model error and indicates that the errors are strongly related to convective processes and the characteristics of the land surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A nanosecond pulsed discharge circuit model for engine applications

Non-equilibrium plasma discharges in spark gaps have been an increasingly studied method for alleviating cycle to cycle variation in lean and dilute combustion environments. However, ignition models that account for streamer propagation, cathode fall, and transmission line amplification over nanosecond time scales have so far not been developed. The present study develops such a model, with emphasis on the energy delivered from circuit to cylinder. Here, key pieces of the relevant physics and chemistry are summarized, simplified, and systematically coupled to one another. The set of parameters is limited to a handful of key observables and modeled using Modelica. Results show non-trivial behavior in the energy delivery characteristics of such discharges with important implications for ignition.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Detection and attribution (D&A) of forced precipitation change are challenging due to internal variability, limited spatial, and temporal coverage of observational records and model uncertainty. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio of potential regional and even global trends. Here, we use a statistical method – ridge regression – to create physically interpretable fingerprints for the detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The fingerprints are constructed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model output masked to match coverage of three gridded precipitation observational datasets – GHCNDEX, HadEX3, and GPCC – and are then applied to these observational datasets to assess the degree of forced change detectable in the real-world climate in the period 1951–2020. We show that the signature of forced change is detected in all three observational datasets for global metrics of mean and extreme precipitation. Forced changes are still detectable from changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation even if the global mean trend is removed from the data. This shows the detection of forced change in mean and extreme precipitation beyond a global mean trend is robust and increases confidence in the detection method's power as well as in climate models' ability to capture the relevant processes that contribute to large-scale patterns of change. We also find, however, that detectability depends on the observational dataset used. Not only coverage differences but also observational uncertainty contribute to dataset disagreement, exemplified by the times of emergence of forced change from internal variability ranging from 1998 to 2004 among datasets. Furthermore, different choices for the period over which the forced trend is computed result in different levels of agreement between observations and model projections. These sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions in recent studies on whether models under- or overestimate the observed forced increase in mean and extreme precipitation. Lastly, the detection fingerprints are found to rely primarily on the signal in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, which is at least partly due to observational coverage but potentially also due to the presence of a more robust signal in the Northern Hemisphere in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation derived from different observed datasets and their possible causes

As a leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic in both observations and model simulations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) can have a substantial influence on regional and global climate. By using Low-Frequency Component Analysis, we explore the uncertainties of the resulting AMO indices and the corresponding spatial patterns derived from three observational SST datasets. We found that the known coherent spatial pattern of the AMO at the basin scale over the North Atlantic appears in two out of the three datasets. Further analysis indicates that both the warming trend and the different techniques used to construct these observed gridded SSTs contribute to the AMO’s spatial coherence over the North Atlantic, especially during periods of sparse data sampling. The SST in the Extended Reconstructed SST dataset version 5 (ERSSTv5), changes from being systematically below the other datasets during the dense sampling periods on either side of the Second World War (WWII), to systematically above the other datasets during WWII, thereby introducing an artificial 10–20-year variability that affects the AMO’s spatial coherence. This coherence in the AMO’s spatial pattern is also affected by bias adjustment in ERSSTv5 at relative cool (i.e., non-summer) seasons, and by the heterogeneous North Atlantic warming pattern. The different AMO patterns can induce the different effects of wind, surface heat fluxes, and then drive ocean circulation and its heat transport convergence, especially for some seasons. For AMO indices, both the different detrending methods and different observational data result in uncertainty for the period 1935–1950. Such SST uncertainty is important to detect the relative role of the atmosphere and ocean in shaping the AMO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics for El Niño-La Niña asymmetry constrain equatorial-Pacific warming pattern

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) results from the instability of and also modulates the strength of the tropical-Pacific cold tongue. While climate models reproduce observed ENSO amplitude relatively well, the majority still simulates its asymmetry between warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases very poorly. The causes of this major deficiency and consequences thereof are so far not well understood. Analysing both reanalyses and climate models, we here show that simulated ENSO asymmetry is largely proportional to subsurface nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) along the equatorial Pacific thermocline. Most climate models suffer from too-weak NDH and too-weak linear dynamical ocean-atmosphere coupling. Nevertheless, a sizeable subset (about 1/3) having relatively realistic NDH shows that El Niño-likeness of the equatorial-Pacific warming pattern is linearly related to ENSO amplitude change in response to greenhouse warming. Therefore, better simulating the dynamics of ENSO asymmetry potentially reduces uncertainty in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modelling the coupled mercury-halogen-ozone cycle in the central Arctic during spring

Near-surface mercury and ozone depletion events occur in the lowest part of the atmosphere during Arctic spring. Mercury depletion is the first step in a process that transforms long-lived elemental mercury to more reactive forms within the Arctic that are deposited to the cryosphere, ocean, and other surfaces, which can ultimately get integrated into the Arctic food web. Depletion of both mercury and ozone occur due to the presence of reactive halogen radicals that are released from snow, ice, and aerosols. In this work, we added a detailed description of the Arctic atmospheric mercury cycle to our recently published version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem 4.3.3) that includes Arctic bromine and chlorine chemistry and activation/recycling on snow and aerosols. The major advantage of our modelling approach is the online calculation of bromine concentrations and emission/recycling that is required to simulate the hourly and daily variability of Arctic mercury depletion. We used this model to study coupling between reactive cycling of mercury, ozone, and bromine during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) spring season in 2020 and evaluated results compared to land-based, ship-based, and remote sensing observations. The model predicts that elemental mercury oxidation is driven largely by bromine chemistry and that particulate mercury is the major form of oxidized mercury. The model predicts that the majority (74%) of oxidized mercury deposited to land-based snow is re-emitted to the atmosphere as gaseous elemental mercury, while a minor fraction (4%) of oxidized mercury that is deposited to sea ice is re-emitted during spring. Our work demonstrates that hourly differences in bromine/ozone chemistry in the atmosphere must be considered to capture the springtime Arctic mercury cycle, including its integration into the cryosphere and ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of the central exclusive production of charged particle pairs in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 200 GeV with the STAR detector at RHIC

We report on the measurement of the Central Exclusive Production of charged particle pairs h+h- (h = π, K, p) with the STAR detector at RHIC in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 200 GeV. The charged particle pairs produced in the reaction pp → p' + h + h - + p' are reconstructed from the tracks in the central detector and identified using the specific energy loss and the time of flight method, while the forward-scattered protons are measured in the Roman Pot system. Exclusivity of the event is guaranteed by requiring the transverse momentum balance of all four final-state particles. Differential cross sections are measured as functions of observables related to the central hadronic final state and to the forward-scattered protons. They are measured in a fiducial region corresponding to the acceptance of the STAR detector and determined by the central particles’ transverse momenta and pseudorapidities as well as by the forward-scattered protons’ momenta. This fiducial region roughly corresponds to the square of the four-momentum transfers at the proton vertices in the range 0.04 GeV 2 < -t 1 , -t 2 < 0.2 GeV 2 , invariant masses of the charged particle pairs up to a few GeV and pseudorapidities of the centrally-produced hadrons in the range |η| < 0.7. The measured cross sections are compared to phenomenological predictions based on the Double Pomeron Exchange (DPE) model. Structures observed in the mass spectra of π + π - and K + K - pairs are consistent with the DPE model, while angular distributions of pions suggest a dominant spin-0 contribution to π + π - production. For π + π - production, the fiducial cross section is extrapolated to the Lorentz-invariant region, which allows decomposition of the invariant mass spectrum into continuum and resonant contributions. The extrapolated cross section is well described by the continuum production and at least three resonances, the f 0 (980), f 2 (1270) and f 0 (1500), with a possible small contribution from the f 0 (1370). Fits to the extrapolated differential cross section as a function of t 1 and t 2 enable extraction of the exponential slope parameters in several bins of the invariant mass of π + π - pairs. These parameters are sensitive to the size of the interaction region.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of PBL Parameterization Schemes in WRF Model Predictions during the Dry Season of the Central Amazon Basin

Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterization schemes are employed to handle subgrid-scale processes on atmospheric models, playing a key role in accurately representing the atmosphere. Recent studies have shown that PBL schemes are particularly fundamental to the depiction of PBL height (PBLH), especially over the Amazon. In the present study, we investigated the performance of PBL schemes on the representation of meteorological variables, turbulent fluxes, PBL vertical structures, and PBLH over the central Amazon basin under dry conditions, taking advantage of observations from the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon campaign (GoAmazon2014/5) for validation and evaluation. Numerical experiments were carried out within the WRF model using eight PBL schemes for two dry periods from 2014 (typical year) and 2015 (El-Niño year), and results from the 1-km resolution domain were directly compared to hourly in situ observations. In general, all PBL schemes present good performance to reproduce meteorological variables, with nonlocal (local) PBL schemes producing better performance in the 2014 (2015) study period. All PBL schemes in general overestimate (>100%) daytime turbulent fluxes. Thermodynamic (daytime) vertical structures are better predicted than mechanical (nocturnal) ones. The local MYNN2.5 scheme showed the overall best performance for PBLH prediction, mainly at night.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Saharan Dust Transport Predictability Utilizing a Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) Model

Prediction of Saharan dust customarily requires complex aerosols models and observations. A previous study of the Miami, Florida dust record in conjunction to reanalysis data discovered a possible source of subseasonal predictability using a dust-transport-efficiency (DTE) index. Development of the Subseasonal Forecast Experiment (SubX) has expanded global forecast products; producing multi-model ensemble forecasts out to 45 days. Retrospective forecast data from the Community Climate System Model version 4.0 (CCSM4) is used in direct comparison to National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis to evaluate the CCSM4 subseasonal forecast and DTE index prediction skill of weekly dust variability. Successful prediction of weekly dust transport using the DTE index is variable year-to-year. The DTE most successfully predicts dust when there is high variability in the tropical winds, likely due to a fluctuating subtropical high, and is not dependent on the overall mean flow or total dust mass transported. The CCSM4 SubX retrospective forecast well represents North Atlantic meteorology out to week-3 in both mean flow and variability. Dust transport can be predicted using the DTE index and CCSM4 SubX retrospective forecasts at week-1 leads to the same success as contemporaneous NCEP reanalysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Topological phase diagram of generalized Su-Schrieffer-Heeger models with interactions

We investigate interacting Su-Schrieffer-Heeger (SSH) chains with two- and three-site unit cells using density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) simulations. By selecting appropriate filling fractions and sweeping across interaction strength 𝐽 𝑧 and dimerization 𝛿, we map out their phase diagrams and identify transition lines via entanglement entropy and magnetization measurements. In the two-site model, we observe the emergence of an interaction-induced antiferromagnetic intermediate phase between the topologically trivial and nontrivial regimes, as well as a critical region at negative 𝐽 𝑧 with suppressed magnetization and finite-size scaling of entanglement entropy. In contrast, the three-site model lacks an intermediate phase and exhibits asymmetric edge localization and antiferromagnetic ordering in both positive and negative 𝐽 𝑧 regimes. We further examine the response of edge states to Ising perturbations. In the two-site model, zero-energy edge modes are topologically protected and remain robust up to a finite interaction strength. However, in the three-site model, where the edge states reside at finite energy, this protection breaks down. Despite this, the edge-localized nature of these states survives in the form of polarized modes whose spatial profiles reflect the noninteracting limit.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probing the Higgs boson CP properties in vector-boson fusion production in the H → τ + τ − channel with the ATLAS detector

The CP properties of the Higgs boson are studied in the vector-boson fusion production mode. The analysis exploits the decay mode of the Higgs boson into two τ-leptons using 140 fb −1 of proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Results are obtained using the Optimal Observable method. CP-violating interactions between the Higgs boson and electroweak gauge bosons are considered in the effective field theory framework, with the interaction strength described in the HISZ basis by $\tilde{d}$, and in the Warsaw basis by c H$\tilde{W}$ , c H$\tilde{B}$ , and c H$\tilde{W}$B . No deviations relative to the Standard Model are observed, and limits are obtained on the strength parameters. The $\tilde{d}$ parameter is constrained to the interval [−0.012, 0.044] at the 95% confidence level while c H$\tilde{W}$ is constrained to [−0.24, 0.83], when considering both linear and quadratic effects of physics beyond the Standard Model.

Hadron-Hadron Scattering↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stacking Fault Energy Based Alloy Screening for Hydrogen Compatibility

The selection of austenitic stainless steels for hydrogen service is challenging since there are few intrinsic metrics that relate alloy composition to hydrogen degradation. One such metric, explored here, is intrinsic stacking fault energy. Stacking fault energy has an influence on the character and structure of dislocations and on the formation of secondary crystalline phases created during mechanical deformation in austenitic alloys. In this work, a data-driven model for the intrinsic stacking fault energy of common austenitic stainless steel alloys is applied to compare the relative degradation of tensile performance in the presence of hydrogen. A transition in the tensile reduction of area of both 300-series and manganese stabilized stainless steels is observed at a calculated stacking fault energy of approximately 43 mJ m -2 , below which pronounced hydrogen degradation on tensile ductility is observed. The model is also applied to suggest alloying strategies for low nickel austenitic stainless steels for hydrogen service. Lastly, through this investigation, we find that calculated intrinsic stacking fault energy is a high-throughput screening metric that enables the ranking of the performance of a diverse range of austenitic stainless steel compositions, as well as the identification of new alloys, with regard to hydrogen compatibility.

08 HYDROGEN↗