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NASA NTRS2004

Improving the Transition of Earth Satellite Observations from Research to Operations

There are significant gaps between the observations, models, and decision support tools that make use of new data. These challenges include: 1) Decreasing the time to incorporate new satellite data into operational forecast assimilation systems, 2) Blending in-situ and satellite observing systems to produce the most accurate and comprehensive data products and assessments, 3) Accelerating the transition from research to applications through national test beds, field campaigns, and pilot demonstrations, and 4) Developing the partnerships and organizational structures to effectively transition new technology into operations. At the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama, a NASA-NOAA-University collaboration has been developed to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth science observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. The SPoRT Center research focus is to improve forecasts through new observation capability and the regional prediction objectives of the US Weather Research Program dealing with 0-1 day forecast issues such as convective initiation and 24-hr quantitative precipitation forecasting. The near real-time availability of high-resolution experimental products of the atmosphere, land, and ocean from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Infrared Spectroradiometer (AIRS), and lightning mapping systems provide an opportunity for science and algorithm risk reduction, and for application assessment prior to planned observations from the next generation of operational low Earth orbiting and geostationary Earth orbiting satellites. This paper describes the process for the transition of experimental products into forecast operations, current products undergoing assessment by forecasters, and plans for the future. The SPoRT Web page is at (http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/sport).

Goodman, Steven J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exascale Computing and Data Handling: Challenges and Opportunities for Weather and Climate Prediction

The emergence of exascale computing and artificial intelligence offer tremendous potential to significantly advance Earth system prediction capabilities. However, enormous challenges must be overcome to adapt models and prediction systems to use these new technologies effectively. A 2022 WMO report on exascale computing recommends “urgency in dedicating efforts and attention to disruptions associated with evolving computing technologies that will be increasingly difficult to overcome, threatening continued advancements in weather and climate prediction capabilities.” Further, the explosive growth in data from observations, model and ensemble output, and postprocessing threatens to overwhelm the ability to deliver timely, accurate, and precise information needed for decision-making. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers untapped opportunities to alter how models are developed, observations are processed, and predictions are analyzed and extracted for decision-making. Given the extraordinarily high cost of computing, growing complexity of prediction systems, and increasingly unmanageable amount of data being produced and consumed, these challenges are rapidly becoming too large for any single institution or country to handle. This paper describes key technical and budgetary challenges, identifies gaps and ways to address them, and makes a number of recommendations.

Atmosphere↗

NASA NTRS1995

Ancient Chinese Observations and Modern Cometary Models

Ancient astronomical observations, primarily by Chinese, represent the only data source for discerning the long-term behavior of comets. These sky watchers produced astrological forecasts for their emperors. The comets Halley, Swift-Tuttle, and Tempel-Tuttle have been observed for 2000 years. Records of the Leonid meteor showers, starting from A.D.902, are used to guide predictions for the 1998-1999 reoccurrence.

Comets Astronomy Halley Swift-Tuttle Tempel-Tuttle↗

NASA NTRS2022

Yonkers Urban Development II: Leveraging NASA Earth Observations to Support Modeling Urban Cooling Interventions and Urban Heat Vulnerability in Yonkers, New York

The City of Yonkers, New York, located in Westchester County, is experiencing rising temperatures which are a growing threat to the health and safety of its residents. Furthermore, the risk of heat-related illnesses and mortality disproportionately affects neighborhoods in Yonkers historically subjected to race-based housing segregation. To better understand these inequities, Groundwork Hudson Valley and NASA DEVELOP collaborated for a second term to evaluate community-level heat vulnerability, landcover distribution, street-level thermal comfort, and modeled urban cooling interventions. This team applied 2019 5-year American Community Survey (ACS) data and social and biophysical heat vulnerability variables established by the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH), along with land surface temperature (LST) data collected from Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), and ISS ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) to identify communities in Yonkers in need of prioritized cooling intervention at the census tract level. Data from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) provided relevant meteorological data for the ENVI-met model to conduct street-level thermal observations and model tree canopy cooling interventions in the Yonkers neighborhoods of Kimball and Old 7th Ward. The project results will support the prioritization and equitable distribution of cooling infrastructure in identified neighborhoods. Additionally, Groundwork Hudson Valley will use the analyses as a heat literacy tool to improve advocacy efforts and inform both residents and officials about how investment in deliberate modification to tree canopy cover improves the city’s thermal environment and helps mitigate extreme heat.

Tamara Barbakova↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the earth SysTem (CATALYST)

CATALYST proposes to perform foundational coordinated research in a team-oriented collaborative effort aimed at advancing a robust understanding of modes of Earth system variability and change using models, observations and process studies. The proposed research will address the DOE/BER mission by exploring the limits to predictability, identifying fundamental underlying mechanisms, quantifying interactions among modes of variability, and discovering tipping points in the Earth system to understand the current and future impacts of these phenomena on regional and global climate. Four fundamental gaps are identified in our knowledge of the Earth system: 1) What are the limits to predictability on various timescales? 2) What are the interactions among modes of Earth system variability? 3) How may modes of Earth system variability change in response to changes in external forcing, and what are the tipping points involved with those changes? 4) How are high impact events connected to modes of Earth system variability and how may they change in the future? Related to those gaps in our knowledge, we formulate four research objectives to address those gaps using a combination of Earth system models (ESMs) and machine learning (ML) methods. Research Objective 1 (RO1) addresses the first gap above and proposes to understand modes of variability and their limits of predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales using ESMs and ML. Research Objective 2 (RO2) addresses the second gap and proposes to use a hierarchy of models to understand relevant processes and feedbacks related to how modes of variability interact with each other. Research Objective 3 (RO3) is designed to study the third gap and proposes to examine the role of external forcings in changes of modes of Earth system variability and their interactions, and the likelihood and predictability of tipping points and irreversible changes. Research Objective 4 (RO4) will address the fourth gap and proposes to use high resolution ESMs, regionally refined models (RRMs), and ML methods to investigate the relationships between high impact events (e.g. flash droughts and precipitation extremes, atmospheric rivers (ARs), tropical cyclones (TCs), storm surge/sea level rise), the synoptic systems that produce them, and their changes related to modes of Earth system variability. The research will involve the use of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), CMIP multi-model data sets, a hierarchy of simpler models, and numerous observational data sets. In the course of the proposed research, CATALYST will contribute to metrics and diagnostics that will be integrated in Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC), particularly with regards to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and its interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), high atmospheric pressure blocking, and new precipitation metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Results between the Legacy and Refined RELAP5-3D Models of the High Temperature Test Facility in Exercises 1 and 2 of the HTTF Benchmark

Work conducted in FY23 identified that RELAP5-3D was capable of reproducing trends in HTTF data during experiment PG-27 but was incapable of reproducing measured values. The primary cause of this discrepancy between RELAP5-3D results and experimental data was hypothesized to be a distortion in power density that was introduced by the radial nodalization of the model. We further hypothesized that a new model would provide better results when compared to the experiments PG-27 and PG-29. Work this FY developed a new model that is better capable of capturing local heat generation rates and contains a representation of each 1/6 azimuthal sector of the core. We used this model to develop a new set of solutions to Exercises 1 and 2 of Problems 2 and 3 in the benchmark. In this report, we present the first comprehensive comparison of the results between the two models. We see that in Exercise 1A, which is common between problems 2 and 3, the results are similar, though the results from the new model show greater detail than those from the legacy model. In Problem 2 Exercise 1B and Problem 3 Exercise 1B, we see that heat removal is slower in the new model than the legacy model. Problem 3 Exercise 1C shows temperatures that are lower in most places in the new model than the legacy model, but the area with active heat generation has higher block temperatures in the new model than the legacy model. Problem 3 Exercise 1D further shows that long-term heat removal is lower in the new model. Problem 2 Exercise 1C demonstrated that the new model observes higher temperatures in the core regions than the legacy model, justifying the need to preserve the power density in HTTF. The validation of PG-27 and PG-29 also demonstrated the improved temperature agreement in the core regions, particularly with a calibrated model that implements an effective thermal conductivity for the core material. Overall, PG-27 models show reasonable to excellent agreement for steady-state temperatures and minimal to reasonable agreement for transients. PG-29 models showed minimal to insufficient agreement with the data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Nanoflare-Based Cellular Automaton Model and the Observed Properties of the Coronal Plasma

We use the cellular automaton model described in Lopez Fuentes and Klimchuk to study the evolution of coronal loop plasmas. The model, based on the idea of a critical misalignment angle in tangled magnetic fields, produces nanoflares of varying frequency with respect to the plasma cooling time. We compare the results of the model with active region (AR) observations obtained with the Hinode/XRT and SDOAIA instruments. The comparison is based on the statistical properties of synthetic and observed loop light curves. Our results show that the model reproduces the main observational characteristics of the evolution of the plasma in AR coronal loops. The typical intensity fluctuations have amplitudes of 10 percent - 15 percent both for the model and the observations. The sign of the skewness of the intensity distributions indicates the presence of cooling plasma in the loops. We also study the emission measure (EM) distribution predicted by the model and obtain slopes in log(EM) versus log(T) between 2.7 and 4.3, in agreement with published observational values.

Lopez-Fuentes, Marcelo↗

NASA NTRS1974

Chain pooling to minimize prediction error in subset regression

Monte Carlo studies using population models intended to represent response surface applications are reported. Simulated experiments were generated by adding pseudo random normally distributed errors to population values to generate observations. Model equations were fitted to the observations and the decision procedure was used to delete terms. Comparison of values predicted by the reduced models with the true population values enabled the identification of deletion strategies that are approximately optimal for minimizing prediction errors.

Holms, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses

This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 W/sq m per K of SST change. Model results agree reasonably well with this estimate of sensitivity. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. There remain, however, significant quantitative uncertainties in cloud forcing changes in the models as compared to observations. These differences are examined in relationship to model convection and cloud parameterizations Analysis of the possible sampling and measurement errors compared to systematic model errors is also presented.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Why is the north polar cap on Mars different than the south polar cap?

Lindner, Bernhard Lee↗

DOE OSTI2024

Northern Pacific Turbulence Intensity Model Data in Observational Space

The dataset archives model-simulated turbulence intensity and meteorological profiles and timeseries at the lidar buoys sites off the coast of California (Humboldt and Morro Bay). The simulated data are interpolated in time and/or space according to observed quantities. The simulations were carried out for the north Pacific region using the revised Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2 that incorporates the implementation of online turbulence intensity (TI) calculations (Tai et al. 2023). The simulated atmospheric profiles near the Shell Exploration and Production Corporation's Tension Leg Platforms Ursa and Mars are archived. Physics parameterizations chosen for the simulations include the Thompson microphysics parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic surface layer parameterization, Unified Noah land-surface parameterization, and the RRTMG longwave and shortwave radiation parameterization. Initial and boundary conditions are taken from NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) product. The JPL 0.01-degree Level 4 Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR) Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Analysis (V4.1) data are used as the model’s SST forcing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1992

Cold dark matter confronts the cosmic microwave background - Large-angular-scale anisotropies in Omega sub 0 + lambda 1 models

A new technique is used to compute the correlation function for large-angle cosmic microwave background anisotropies resulting from both the space and time variations in the gravitational potential in flat, vacuum-dominated, cold dark matter cosmological models. Such models with Omega sub 0 of about 0.2, fit the excess power, relative to the standard cold dark matter model, observed in the large-scale galaxy distribution and allow a high value for the Hubble constant. The low order multipoles and quadrupole anisotropy that are potentially observable by COBE and other ongoing experiments should definitively test these models.

Gorski, Krzysztof M.↗

NASA NTRS2006

An Analytical Solution of Radiative Transfer in the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System with Rough Surface

Using the efficient discrete-ordinate method, we present an analytical solution for radiative transfer in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system with rough air-water interface. The theoretical formulations of the radiative transfer equation and solution are described. The effects of surface roughness on radiation field in the atmosphere and ocean are studied and compared with measurements. The results show that ocean surface roughness has significant effects on the upwelling radiation in the atmosphere and the downwelling radiation in the ocean. As wind speed increases, the angular domain of sunglint broadens, the surface albedo decreases, and the transmission to ocean increases. The downward radiance field in the upper ocean is highly anisotropic, but this anisotropy decreases rapidly as surface wind increases and as depth in ocean increases. The effects of surface roughness on radiation also depend greatly on both wavelength and angle of incidence (i.e., solar elevation); these effects are significantly smaller throughout the spectrum at high sun. The model-observation discrepancies may indicate that the Cox-Munk surface roughness model is not sufficient for high wind conditions.

Jin, Zhonghai↗

DOE OSTI2024

Gulf of Mexico Turbulence Intensity Model Data in Observational Space

The dataset archives model-simulated turbulence intensity and meteorological profiles and timeseries at the Shell Exploration and Production Corporation's Tension Leg Platforms Ursa and Mars. The simulated data are interpolated in time and/or space according to observed quantities. The simulations were carried out for the Gulf of Mexico region using the revised Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2 that incorporates the implementation of online turbulence intensity (TI) calculations (Tai et al. 2023). The simulated atmospheric profiles near the Shell Exploration and Production Corporation's Tension Leg Platforms Ursa and Mars are archived. Physics parameterizations chosen for the simulations include the Thompson microphysics parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic surface layer parameterization, Unified Noah land-surface parameterization, and the RRTMG longwave and shortwave radiation parameterization. Initial and boundary conditions are taken from NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) product. The JPL 0.01-degree Level 4 Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR) Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Analysis (V4.1) data are used as the model’s SST forcing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Distributed State Estimation Over Time-Varying Graphs: Exploiting the Age-of-Information

Here, we study the problem of designing a distributed observer for an LTI system over a time-varying communication graph. The limited existing work on this topic imposes various restrictions either on the observation model or on the sequence of communication graphs. In contrast, we propose a single-time-scale distributed observer that works under mild assumptions. Specifically, our communication model only requires strong-connectivity to be preserved over non-overlapping, contiguous intervals that are even allowed to grow unbounded over time. We show that under suitable conditions that bound the growth of such intervals, joint observability is sufficient to track the state of any discrete-time LTI system exponentially fast, at any desired rate. We also develop a variant of our algorithm that is provably robust to worst-case adversarial attacks, provided the sequence of graphs is sufficiently connected over time. The key to our approach is the notion of a "freshness-index" that keeps track of the age-of-information being diffused across the network. Such indices enable nodes to reject stale estimates of the state, and, in turn, contribute to stability of the error dynamics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1992

Simulations of the seasonal polar caps on Mars

One of the most puzzling mysteries about the planet Mars is the hemispherical asymmetry in the polar caps. Every spring the seasonal polar cap of CO2 recedes until the end of summer, when only a small part, the residual polar cap, remains. During the year that Viking observed Mars, the residual polar cap was composed of water ice in the Northern Hemisphere (Kieffer et al., Science, 194, 1341, 1976), but was primarily carbon dioxide ice in the Southern Hemisphere (Kieffer, J. Geophys. Res., 84, 8263, 1979). Scientists have sought to explain this asymmetry by modeling observations of the latitudinal recession of the polar cap and seasonal variations in atmospheric pressure (since the seasonal polar caps are primarily frozen atmosphere, they are directly related to changes in atmospheric mass). These models reproduce most aspects of the observed annual variation in atmospheric pressure fairly accurately. Furthermore, the predicted latitudinal recession of the northern polar cap in the spring agrees well with observations, including the fact that CO2 ice is predicted to completely sublime away. However, these models all predict that the carbon dioxide ice will also sublime away during the summer in the Southern Hemisphere, unlike what is observed. It is shown here how the radiative effects of ozone, clouds, and airborne dust, light penetration into and through the polar cap, and the dependence of albedo on solar zenith angle affect CO2 ice formation and sublimation, and how they help explain the hemispherical asymmetry in the residual polar caps. These effects have not been studied with prior polar cap models. The combination of the effects of solar zenith angle on albedo and the radiative effects of clouds and dust act to extend the lifetime of CO2 ice on the south pole relatively more than on the north pole, possibly explaining the hemispherical asymmetry in the residual polar caps without the need of a hemispherical asymmetry in polar cap albedo. This does not imply that a hemispherical asymmetry in polar cap albedo does not exist, but that one is not necessary. Observations of the regression of the polar caps and the annual cycle in atmospheric pressure are reproduced fairly well by the model, as shown in the figures, although further improvement is needed. When CO2 ice is retained at the south pole, the model predictions of the annual cycle in atmospheric pressure have a phase shift relative to the data, no matter what model input parameters are used. We are investigating other processes not included in prior polar cap models.

Lindner, Bernhard Lee↗

NASA NTRS2003

X-Ray Spectra of Young Pulsars and Their Wind Nebulae: Dependence on Spin-Down Energy Loss Rate

An observational model is presented for the spectra of young rotation-powered pulsars and their nebulae based on a study of nine bright Crab-like pulsar systems observed with the Chandra X-ray observatory. A significant correlation is discovered between the X-ray spectra of these pulsars and that of their associated pulsar wind nebulae, both of which are observed to be a function of the spin-down energy loss rate, E. The 2-10 keV spectra of these objects are well characterized by an absorbed power-law model with photon indices, Gamma, in the range of 0.6 < Gamma (sub PSR) < 2.1 and 1.3 < Gamma(sub PWN) < 2.3, for the pulsars and their nebulae, respectively. A linear regression fit relating these two sets of indexes yields Gamma(sub PWN) = 0.91 +/- 0.18 + (0.66 +/- 0.11) Gamma (sub PSR), with a correlation coefficient of r = 0.97. The spectra of these pulsars are found to steepen as Gamma = Gamma(sub max) + alpha E (exp -1/2), with Gamma(sub max) providing an observational limit on the spectral slopes of young rotation-powered pulsars. These results reveal basic properties of young pulsar systems, allow new observational constraints on models of pulsar wind emission, and provide a means of predicting the energetics of pulsars lacking detected pulsations.

Gotthelf, E. V.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in several cities in the Pacific Northwest areas of the US and Canada, leading to spikes in sudden deaths and sharp increases in emergency calls and hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis to investigate the extent to which human-induced climate change has influenced the probability and intensity of extreme heat waves in this region. Based on observations, modelling and a classical statistical approach, the occurrence of a heat wave defined as the maximum daily temperature (TXx) observed in the area 45–52 °N, 119–123 °W, was found to be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lay far outside the range of historical temperature observations. This makes it hard to state with confidence how rare the event was. Using a statistical analysis that assumes that the heat wave is part of the same distribution as previous heat waves in this region led to a first-order estimation of the event frequency of the order of once in 1000 years under current climate conditions. Using this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, we found that such a heat wave event would be at least 150 times less common without human-induced climate change. Also, this heat wave was about 2 °C hotter than a 1-in-1000-year heat wave would have been in 1850–1900, when global mean temperatures were 1.2 °C cooler than today. Looking into the future, in a world with 2 °C of global warming (0.8 °C warmer than today), a 1000-year event would be another degree hotter. Our results provide a strong warning: our rapidly warming climate is bringing us into uncharted territory with significant consequences for health, well-being and livelihoods. Adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare societies for a very different future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗