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At least 541 records · Page 30

The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP)

Abstract. Large-scale interaction between the three tropical ocean basins is an area of intense research that is often conducted through experimentation with numerical models. A common problem is that modeling groups use different experimental setups, which makes it difficult to compare results and delineate the role of model biases from differences in experimental setups. To address this issue, an experimental protocol for examining interaction between the tropical basins is introduced. The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP) consists of experiments in which sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed to follow observed values in selected basins. There are two types of experiments. One type, called standard pacemaker, consists of simulations in which SSTs are restored to observations in selected basins during a historical simulation. The other type, called pacemaker hindcast, consists of seasonal hindcast simulations in which SSTs are restored to observations during 12-month forecast periods. TBIMIP is coordinated by the Climate and Ocean – Variability, Predictability, and Change (CLIVAR) Research Focus on Tropical Basin Interaction. The datasets from the model simulations will be made available to the community to facilitate and stimulate research on tropical basin interaction and its role in seasonal-to-decadal variability and climate change.

Richter, Ingo↗

Development of Time Lapse VSP Integration Workflow: A Case Study at Farnsworth CO2-EOR Project

Abstract This study aims to develop a 4D Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP) integration workflow to improve the prediction of subsurface stress changes. The selected study site is a 5-spot pattern within the ongoing CO2-EOR operations at the Farnsworth Field Unit FWU in Ochiltree County, Texas. The specific pattern has undergone extensive geological and geomechanical characterization through the acquisition of 3D seismic data, geophysical well logs, and core. This workflow constrains a numerical hydromechanical model by applying a penalty function formed between "modeled" versus "observed" time-lapse compressional and shear seismic velocity changes. Analyses of geophysical logs and ultra-sonic measurements on core exhibit measurable sensitivities to changes in both fluid saturation and mean effective stress. These data are used to develop a site-specific rock physics model and stress-velocity relationship, which inform the numerical models used to generate the "modeled" portion of the penalty function. The "observed" portion of the penalty function is provided by a novel elastic full-waveform inversion of the available 3D baseline and three monitor surveys to produce high-quality estimates of time-lapse compressional and shear seismic velocity changes. The modeling workflow accounts sequentially for fluid substitution and stress impacts. Hydrodynamic and geomechanical properties of the 3D coupled numerical model are estimated through geostatistical integration of well log and core data with 3D seismic inversion products. Changes in seismic velocities due to fluid substitution are computed using the Biot-Gassmann workflow and site-specific rock physics. Stress impacts on time-lapse seismic velocity changes are modeled from the effective stress output of the hydromechanical model and are initially based on the velocity versus effective stress relationship extracted from core mechanical testing. Based on the principle of superposition of seismic wavefields, seismic velocity changes attributed to fluid substitution and that due to changes in mean effective stress are treated as linearly additive. The modeled results are upscaled using Backus averaging to reconcile scale discrepancies between the modeled and measured datasets to formulate the penalty function. This manuscript presents the forward modeling process and concludes that for the base case, the seismic velocity changes due to mean effective stress dominates over the seismic velocity changes attributed to fluid substitution because of the extensive range of the pressure perturbations. Successful minimization of this penalty function calibrates the coupled hydrodynamic geomechanical numerical model and affirms the suitability of acoustic time-lapse measurements such as 4D-VSP for geomechanical calibration.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of a nuclear thermal propulsion reactor startup sequence

The research presented in this article describes progress in applying stochastic methods, uncertainty quantification, parametric studies, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated via the radiation transport code Griffin to simulate neutronics. Our goal is to develop a reduced-order (surrogate) model that can be rapidly sampled with perturbations to multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums (CDs), which is itself controlled by a hybrid proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time [Λ] and effective delayed neutron fraction [ β eff ] from a transient Griffin simulation executed via Griffin’s improved quasi-static solver to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions that control the CD rotation angle. By investigating numerous stochastic approaches, we developed a dual-purpose surrogate model of the NTP system, using polynomial regression in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Stochastic Tools Module (STM). The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters, such as coefficients on the PID control or temperature (directly affecting the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate (within 5%) results at speeds orders of magnitude faster (minutes, not days of computational time) than the base model. Once the surrogate model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs as well as the effects of these inputs on the model output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some type of physical interference, or uncertainty may exist in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters, and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system for operating CDs in a functioning NTP system. This work is a scoping study of the MOOSE STM.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

The role of surface forces in environment-enhanced cracking of brittle solids

Fracture initiation and propagation in brittle materials is promoted in surface-reactive (sorptive) environments, a phenomenon known as subcritical crack growth (SCG). Laboratory measured crack-propagation velocity vs. stress intensity factor relationships typically exhibit highly nonlinear, multi-stage characteristics that are sensitive to environmental factors such as adsorbate concentration and temperature. For practical purposes, empirical relationships (e.g., a power law) have been used to describe this complex phenomenon. However, how the overall SCG behavior emerges from the underlying fundamental processes near the crack tip, such as the interaction of the crack surfaces separated by only a few nanometers and mass transport within the nano-confined space, is still not well understood. This paper develops a mechanistic, surface-force-based fracture theory (SFFT) which integrates surface force models, fluid transport models, and linear elastic fracture mechanics to quantitatively explain the multi-stage characteristics of SCG in brittle solids. A numerical model is developed based on SFFT and solved through an implicit partitioned scheme for efficiency and modularity. The results are validated by Wiederhorn's data on crack propagation in soda-lime glasses at a wide range of relative humidity levels. We show that, for the first time, the entire range of an SCG curve can be captured by a single physics-based model. The predicted SCG curves reveal that the development of repulsive disjoining pressure behind the crack tip can be responsible for the reduced apparent fracture toughness in a sorptive environment. In conclusion, the shape of the SCG curve, and its changes with respect to the environment, is found to critically depend on the assumed transport models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Inferring the temperature profile of the radiative shock in the COAX experiment with shock radiography, Dante, and spectral temperature diagnostics

Predicting and modeling the behavior of experiments with radiation waves propagating through low-density foams require a detailed quantification of the numerous uncertainties present. In regimes where a prominent radiative shock is produced, key dynamical features include the shock position, temperature, and curvature and the spatial distribution and temperature of the corresponding supersonic radiation wave. The COAX experimental platform is designed to constrain numerical models of such a radiative shock propagating through a low-density foam by employing radiography for spatial and shock information, Dante for characterizing the x-ray flux from the indirectly driven target, and a novel spectral diagnostic designed to probe the temperature profile of the wave. In this work, we model COAX with parameterized 2D simulations and a Hohlraum-laser modeling package to study uncertainties in diagnosing the experiment. The inferred temperature profile of the COAX radiation transport experiments has been shown to differ from simulations more than expected from drive uncertainties that have been constrained by simultaneous soft x-ray flux and radiography measurements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Model Package Report: Geoframework Model of the Hanford Site 100 Area

The purpose of the 100 Area Geoframework Model (GFM) is to provide a reasonable, consistent, and defensible three dimensional representation of the hydrostratigraphic units below the River Corridor at the Hanford Site to support contaminant fate and transport models. The GFM is a three dimensional representation of the subsurface geologic structure. From this, three dimensional geologic model-exported results, in the form of points or surfaces, are used as inputs to populate and assemble the various numerical model architectures. The objective of this report is to define the process used to produce a hydrostratigraphic model for the hydrostratigraphic units beneath the Hanford Site 100 Area. The GFM may support several other CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company project needs and objectives, including providing geologic information to support remedial investigations and actions and as a tool to present River Corridor geology and contaminant extents. The GFM was constructed based on information through 2019 available in the Integrated Data Management System, Hanford Environmental Information System, and the Hanford Site geologic contacts (GeoContacts) datasets. Revisions to the 100 Area GFM may occur to incorporate new data and information. Each version will be maintained in configuration control using date stamps for identifying supporting databases, figures, and interpretations. Supporting data include the final three dimensional geoframework surfaces, two dimensional structure and isopach maps, and all the geologic contact inputs and interpreted geologic log data. These final products provide a supporting set of geologic information that together allow the creation of the GFM. This information is managed, updated, and maintained via CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company under the Environmental Model Management Archive.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Thermo-Hydro-Chemical Simulation of Mid-Ocean Ridge Hydrothermal Systems: Static 2D Models and Effects of Paleo-Seawater Chemistry

Decades of research have resulted in characterization of the ocean floor manifestations of mid-ocean ridge (MOR) hydrothermal systems, yet numerical models accounting for the connections between heat transfer, hydrology and geochemistry have been slow to develop. The Thermo-hydro-chemical code ToughReact can be used to describe the coupled effects of fluid flow, heat transfer, and fluid-rock chemical interactions that occur in MOR systems. We describe the results of 2-dimensional simulations of steady state flow in fractured diabase with mineral-fluid chemical reactions. Basal heating and specified permeability yield maximum temperature of 400°C. Total fluid flux and high fracture flow velocities are in accord with observations. Fluid chemistry, mineralogical changes and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios can be compared to observations to assess and calibrate models. Simulated high temperature fracture fluids have Mg and SO 4 near zero, elevated Ca and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of about 0.7040. Total alteration is 10%–50% for simple models of spreading. Anhydrite forms mainly near the base of the upwelling zone and results in substantial local fracture porosity reduction. A calibrated model is used to predict how Sr isotopes and other features of altered oceanic crust would be different in the Cretaceous (95 Ma) early Proterozoic (1,800 Ma) and Archean (3,800 Ma), when seawater may have had high Ca and Sr concentrations, lower pH, higher temperature, and lower Na, Mg, and SO 4 . The simulations are offered as a start on what ultimately may require a longer-term community effort to better understand the role of MOR thermo-hydro-chemical systems in Earth evolution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Toward Accurate Modeling of Galaxy Clustering on Small Scales: Halo Model Extensions and Lingering Tension

This paper represents an effort to provide robust constraints on the galaxy–halo connection and simultaneously test the Planck ΛCDM cosmology using a fully numerical model of small-scale galaxy clustering. We explore two extensions to the standard Halo Occupation Distribution model: assembly bias, whereby halo occupation depends on both halo mass and the larger environment, and velocity bias, whereby galaxy velocities do not perfectly trace the velocity of the dark matter within the halo. Moreover, we incorporate halo mass corrections to account for the impact of baryonic physics on the halo population. We identify an optimal set of clustering measurements to constrain this "decorated" HOD model for both low- and high-luminosity galaxies in SDSS DR7. We find that, for low-luminosity galaxies, a model with both assembly bias and velocity bias provides the best fit to the clustering measurements, with no tension remaining in the fit. In this model, we find evidence for both central and satellite galaxy assembly bias at the 99% and 95% confidence levels, respectively. In addition, we find evidence for satellite galaxy velocity bias at the 99.9% confidence level. For high-luminosity galaxies, we find no evidence for either assembly bias or velocity bias, but our model exhibits significant tension with SDSS measurements. We find that all of these conclusions still stand when we include the effects of baryonic physics on the halo mass function, suggesting that the tension we find for high-luminosity galaxies may be due to a problem with our assumed cosmological model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Enhancement of phase change material hysteresis model: A case study of modeling building envelope in EnergyPlus

Nowadays, buildings are expected to offer demand side services to the power grid to enhance the electrical load flexibility, which leads to the concepts of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs). Phase change material (PCM)-based thermal energy storage has seen increasing attention in recent years for peak load shifting of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs). Numerical models are critical tools for design and evaluation of PCM-integrated systems. Most industrial-grade PCMs are reported to melt/freeze over a temperature range instead of at a unique temperature. Such thermal hysteresis effect significantly affects the reliability of simulation results because not only the heat transfer process depends on melting and freezing temperatures, the PCM thermal properties change significantly during the phase change process as well. This study is aimed to develop a model for the PCMs used in the building envelope with the capability to accurately simulate hysteretic behaviors. Further, this model is based on a two-phase assumption and is implemented in a whole building energy performance simulation program (i.e., EnergyPlus). A comparison between numerical results and experimental data shows that during a complete phase transition, the two-phase model could achieve a good agreement with the experimental data. During a partial phase transition, the two-phase model could lead to significant improvements compared to other alternative PCM models, including the existing PCM model in EnergyPlus. Last, whole building simulations were performed to study this model's performance regarding heating/cooling loads and zone mean air temperature of a given building. The results show that the difference in hourly heating/cooling loads introduced by the models was less than 1% in design conditions, while significant changes were observed in both hourly heating/cooling loads and zone mean air temperature when the PCM envelope underwent partial phase transition processes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

On the Feasibility of Deep Geothermal Wells Using Numerical Reservoir Simulation

This study examines the geothermal energy extraction potential from the basement rock within the Denver–Julesburg Basin, focusing on the flow performance and heat extraction efficiency of different geothermal well configurations. It specifically compares U-shaped, V-shaped, inclined V-shaped, and pipe-in-pipe configurations against enhanced geothermal system setups. Through numerical modeling, we evaluated the thermal behavior of these systems under various operational scenarios and fracture conditions. The results suggest that while closed-loop systems offer moderate temperature increases, Enhanced geothermal system configurations show substantial potential for high-temperature extraction. This underscores the importance of evaluating well configurations in complex geological settings. The insights from this study aid in strategic geothermal energy planning and development, marking significant advancements in geothermal technology and setting a foundation for future explorations and optimizations.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Phase-field modeling of crack growth under coupled creep-fatigue

Crack growth under coupled creep-fatigue strongly influences service life of metallic components operating at high temperatures. However, there lack numerical models that enable direct simulations of crack growth and plasticity development under coupled creep-fatigue. Here, in this study, a unified phase-field model is developed for simulating crack growth under fatigue, creep, and coupled creep-fatigue. This model is able to reproduce the Paris laws for both brittle and ductile materials in pure fatigue mode, which shows that the degradation rate due to cyclic stress in ductile materials is generally larger than that in brittle materials. Fatigue simulations with different yield strengths demonstrate that plasticity facilitates crack growth in typical ductile materials. High-throughput simulations are performed under coupled creep-fatigue conditions, with varying hold-stress levels and hold-time. By analyzing crack growth rate under different hold-time, a creep-fatigue interaction term is obtained. Simulation results demonstrate that the creep-fatigue interaction is caused by smaller stress gradient and enhanced degradation rate ahead of the crack tips under coupled creep-fatigue, compared to the situation of pure fatigue. This work reveals the origin of different Paris-law exponents in brittle and ductile materials and demonstrates how the interplay between creep and fatigue affects crack growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Electric Water Heaters for Transactive Systems: Model Evaluations and Performance Quantification

Electric water heaters (EWHs) are opportune appliances for implementing demand-side control. EWH models serve as a fundamental step toward accurately estimating EWH flexibility potential and designing proper control strategies. Existing studies have adapted numerous modeling approaches in evaluating the potential of EWHs for a variety of grid applications. This paper presents an analytical study that evaluates the performance of state-of-art EWH models in terms of accuracy and computational complexity for adaptation in evaluation studies for the transactive system. The work proposes a transactive control strategy that optimally utilizes the thermal inertia of EWHs for providing grid services. Here, the performance of the control strategy and the impact of modeling accuracy is evaluated for device-level and feeder-level use cases using the IEEE 123 node test distribution system appropriately populated with EWHs. The simulation results illustrate the effectiveness of the control strategy in reducing the feeder demand during peak period by 13% and also quantities the impact of using simplified modeling approaches for determining the potential of EWHs for providing grid services.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of a Random-Forest Cloud-Regime Classification Model Based on Surface Radiation and Cloud Products

Various methods have been developed to characterize cloud type, otherwise referred to as cloud regime. These include manual sky observations, combining radiative and cloud vertical properties observed from satellite, surface-based remote sensing, and digital processing of sky imagers. While each method has inherent advantages and disadvantages, none of these cloud-typing methods actually includes measurements of surface shortwave or longwave radiative fluxes. Here, a method that relies upon detailed, surface-based radiation and cloud measurements and derived data products to train a random-forest machine-learning cloud classification model is introduced. Measurements from five years of data from the ARM Southern Great Plains site were compiled to train and independently evaluate the model classification performance. A cloud-type accuracy of approximately 80% using the random-forest classifier reveals that the model is well suited to predict climatological cloud properties. Furthermore, an analysis of the cloud-type misclassifications is performed. While physical cloud types may be misreported, the shortwave radiative signatures are similar between misclassified cloud types. From this, we assert that the cloud-regime model has the capacity to successfully differentiate clouds with comparable cloud–radiative interactions. Therefore, we conclude that the model can provide useful cloud-property information for fundamental cloud studies, inform renewable energy studies, and be a tool for numerical model evaluation and parameterization improvement, among many other applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vadose Zone Flow and Transport Parameters Data Package for the Hanford Site Composite Analysis

This report provides a description of the basis for the development and implementation of a conceptual model for vadose zone flow and transport for the Hanford Site composite analysis (CA) groundwater pathway analysis. The parameterization for a numerical model is intimately linked to the conceptual model framework. This report describes the basis for the selection of hydraulic and transport parameters for the hydrostratigraphic units (HSUs) identified in the 200 East and 200 West Areas. The following three-step process was used to develop the hydraulic properties and transport parameters for the CA modeling: 1. Breakdown of existing database on hydraulic properties by HSUs 2. Constitutive model parameters for laboratory, core-scale hydraulic properties 3. Upscaling for macroscopic, field-scale flow, and transport parameters This document provides data and information on the following items: A brief description and technical basis for the conceptual model selected to represent vadose zone flow and transport for the CA modeling. Variation in sediment particle size distribution for representative sites in the 200 East and West Areas. A summary of effective (upscaled) moisture retention, and saturated and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity estimates for the HSUs in the 200 East and West Areas. A summary of effective transport parameters, including sediment bulk density and macrodispersivity estimates for various HSUs. The 200 East Area B Complex perched water aquifer hydraulic properties

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Magnetically Coupled Broadband Dual Magnetic Mass/Spring Vibrational Energy Harvesting Design

Self-powering sensors and networks are a reality. The ability to extract ambient energy from the surroundings to power electronic devices has a profound impact on the realization of smart adaptable sensor networks. In this study, a magnetically coupled dual spring and magnet design has been investigated to improve the efficiency and performance bandwidth of vibration energy harvesting (VEH) sensors. Using numerical models based on traditional systems of coupled ordinary differential equations (ODE), an optimized design was developed and compared to experimental measurements. Numerical and empirical results show good agreement. Results show improvement in the bandwidth over an equivalent linear system and corresponding improvement in output power conversion efficiency. The increased bandwidth allows improved conversion sensitivity and enhanced power harvesting capabilities. This operational bandwidth coincides with the expected input spectrum for in situ applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Analysis of the performance of different culvert boundary conditions in 2D shallow flow models

Culverts allow roads to safely traverse small streams or drainage ditches, and their proper design is critical to ensure a safe and reliable transportation network. A correct modelization of these hydraulic structures becomes crucial in the assessment of flood footprints or discharge peak estimation in a risk evaluation plan. The question of how to include culverts comes up frequently when assembling a hydraulic model that requires the presence of as many singular elements as possible. In this work, three different culvert integrations with the surface domain are studied and compared in the context of a 2D shallow water (SW) model. All of them are based on the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) formulation for the culvert discharge estimation but differ in complexity and in the interaction with the numerical model for surface flow, some of them as internal boundary conditions. Several steady and unsteady validation test cases are presented and the numerical results are compared with the predictions from HEC-RAS 1D and HY-8 software. Furthermore, the culvert area, shape and their sensitivity to the 2D computational mesh is also analyzed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-dimensional modeling of mixture preparation in a direct injection engine fueled with gaseous hydrogen

With the recent advances of direct injection (DI) technology, introducing hydrogen into the combustion chamber through DI is being considered as a viable approach to circumvent backfire and pre-ignition encountered in early generations of hydrogen engines. As part of a broader vision to develop a robust numerical model to study hydrogen spark ignition (SI) combustion in internal combustion (IC) engines, the present numerical investigation focuses on mixture preparation in a hydrogen DI SI engine. This study is carried out with a single hole injector with gaseous hydrogen injected at 100 bar injection pressure. Simulations are carried out for high and low tumble configurations and validated against optical data acquired from planar laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) measurements. Varying mesh configurations are investigated for the impact on in-cylinder mixture distribution. A particular emphasis is placed on the effect of nozzle geometry and mesh orientation near the wall. Overall, the computational model is found to predict the mixture distribution in the combustion cylinder reasonably well. The results showed that the alignment of mesh with the flow direction is important to achieve good agreement between numerical analysis and optical measurement data.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Dynamic Rupture Simulations of Caldera Collapse Earthquakes: Effects of Wave Radiation, Magma Viscosity, and Evidence of Complex Nucleation at Kilauea 2018

All instrumented basaltic caldera collapses have generated M w > 5 very long period earthquakes. However, previous studies of source dynamics have been limited to lumped models treating the caldera block as rigid, leaving open questions related to how ruptures initiate and propagate around the ring fault, and the seismic expressions of those dynamics. Here, we present the first 3D numerical model capturing the nucleation and propagation of ring fault rupture, the mechanical coupling to the underlying viscoelastic magma, and the associated seismic wavefield. We demonstrate that seismic radiation, neglected in previous models, acts as a damping mechanism reducing coseismic slip by up to half, with effects most pronounced for large magma chamber volume/ring fault radius or highly compliant crust/compressible magma. Viscosity of basaltic magma has negligible effect on collapse dynamics. In contrast, viscosity of silicic magma significantly reduces ring fault slip. We use the model to simulate the 2018 Kilauea caldera collapse. Three stages of collapse, characterized by ring fault rupture initiation and propagation, deceleration of the downward-moving caldera block and magma column, and post-collapse resonant oscillations, in addition to chamber pressurization, are identified in simulated and observed (unfiltered) near-field seismograms. A detailed comparison of simulated and observed displacement waveforms corresponding to collapse earthquakes with hypocenters at various azimuths of the ring fault reveals a complex nucleation phase for earthquakes initiated on the northwest. Our numerical simulation framework will enhance future efforts to reconcile seismic and geodetic observations of caldera collapse with conceptual models of ring fault and magma chamber dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗