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Low-latency NuMI Trigger for the CHIPS-5 Neutrino Detector

The CHIPS R&D project aims to develop affordable water Cherenkov detectors for large-scale underwater installations. In 2019, a 5kt prototype detector CHIPS-5 was deployed in northern Minnesota to study neutrinos generated by the nearby NuMI beam. This contribution presents a dedicated low-latency time distribution system for CHIPS-5 that delivers timing signals from the Fermilab accelerator to the detector with sub-nanosecond precision. Exploiting existing NOvA infrastructure, the time distribution system achieves this only with open-source software and conventional network elements. In a time-of-flight study, the presented system has reliably offered a time budget of $610 \pm 330\text{ ms}$ for on-site triggering. This permits advanced analysis in real-time as well as a novel hardware-assisted active triggering mode, which reduces DAQ computing load and network bandwidth outside triggered time windows.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Operational and Mission Highlights A Monthly Summary of Top Achievements

In September 2020, the Laboratory’s Chemical Microscopy Facility tripled in size, expanding to 1,000 square feet. Located at TA-46, Building158, this facility houses a unique Laboratory resource. Operated by the Physical Chemistry and Applied Spectroscopy (C-PCS) group, this facility was established to renew the Laboratory’s rich history in radiobiology. The facility combines biological research capabilities with isotope production, as well as radioanalytical and chemical infrastructure. This facility provides space for Biosafety Level 2 (BSL-2) research, with alpha-emitting and other radionuclides of interest associated with biological systems. Equipped with a Class ll/A2 biological safety cabinet, a radiological fume hood and a host of other analytical equipment, this facility serves an effective resource to evaluate the efficacy of targeted alpha therapeutics, as well as the deleterious effects of radiological materials on living organisms. The facility receives funding through LDRD- 20180005DR, “Establishing a Radiotherapeutic Capability to Counter Biothreats,” and the BES Heavy Element Chemistry Program at the Laboratory.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

WIRE-21 Sensor Irradiation Experiment Ready for HFIR Insertion

The ability to deploy new nuclear fuels for current or future reactor concepts requires a wealth of data regarding fuel performance during normal operation, anticipated operational occurrences, and design-basis accidents. Most of these data have historically been collected during experiments in materials test reactors, ideally with online instrumentation to collect as much data as possible. However, advanced instrumentation could also allow for in situ monitoring of fuel operating conditions during commercial reactor operation to maximize fuel utilization, reduce unnecessary conservativism in design margins, and improve operator understanding of limiting peaking factors. The latter approach would complicate fuel handling, particularly during refueling, unless the instrumentation could be placed inside the fuel rods and transmitted wirelessly to a receiver located outside the fuel’s primary pressure boundary. To this end, Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) developed wireless sensors based on inductive coupling that can transmit information regarding fuel centerline temperatures and rod internal pressures wirelessly from within a fuel rod to a nearby instrument thimble. After testing these sensors in lower-power university research reactors, the next step is to perform high neutron fluence testing to characterize the performance of these wireless sensors under conditions that are more representative of the intended application—in this case, light-water reactors (LWRs). The removable Be (RB) positions of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) provide the neutron flux, experiment volume, and access to instrument leads required to achieve these sensor testing goals. This report summarizes the design, analysis, and assembly of the Wireless Instrumented RB Experiment 2021 (WIRE-21). This is the most highly instrumented irradiation experiment ever performed in HFIR. The experiment will use seven different sensing techniques to measure temperature, pressure, neutron flux, and neutron fluence during reactor operation. In addition to WEC’s wireless temperature and pressure sensors, WIRE-21 includes an array of thermocouples, self-powered neutron detectors, spatially distributed fiber optic temperature sensors, passive SiC temperature monitors, and flux wires. The design of WIRE-21 and the cabling that was installed in HFIR also provide the infrastructure to enable accelerated, economical testing of advanced sensor technologies while leveraging the extremely high neutron flux that is available in HFIR. The containment for WIRE-21 is similar to previous RB irradiation vehicles but includes a few modifications, most notably the use of integrated compression seals to pass a larger number of sensor leads through the experiment’s pressure boundary. In addition to the sensor leads, inert gas lines are passed into the experiment to enable active temperature control and the ability to pneumatically actuate a bellows-driven pressure sensor. WIRE-21 is targeting component temperatures (300–350°C) and neutron fluence levels (~10 22 n/cm 2 ) that would be expected in the plenum region of LWR fuels, except for the active sensing region of the wireless temperature sensor, which is targeting LWR fuel centerline temperatures (~800–1,100°C). WIRE-21 was successfully assembled, passed all nondestructive examination, and was delivered to HFIR for insertion during upcoming cycle 498 (April 2022).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Portability: A Necessary Approach for Future Scientific Software

Today's world of scientific software for High Energy Physics (HEP) is powered by x86 code, while the future will be much more reliant on accelerators like GPUs and FPGAs. The portable parallelization strategies (PPS) project of the High Energy Physics Center for Computational Excellence (HEP/CCE) is investigating solutions for portability techniques that will allow the coding of an algorithm once, and the ability to execute it on a variety of hardware products from many vendors, especially including accelerators. We think without these solutions, the scientific success of our experiments and endeavors is in danger, as software development could be expert driven and costly to be able to run on available hardware infrastructure. We think the best solution for the community would be an extension to the C++ standard with a very low entry bar for users, supporting all hardware forms and vendors. We are very far from that ideal though. We argue that in the future, as a community, we need to request and work on portability solutions and strive to reach this ideal.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Integrating Interactive Jupyter Notebooks at the BNL SDCC

At the SDCC we are deploying a Jupyterhub infrastructure to enable scientists from multiple disciplines to access our diverse compute and storage resources. One major design goal was to avoid rolling out yet another compute backend, but rather to leverage our pre-existing resources via our batch systems (HTCondor and Slurm). Challenges faced include creating a frontend that allows users to choose what HPC resources they have access to as well as selecting containers or environments, delegating authentication to a MFA-enabled proxy, and automating deployment of multiple hub instances. This paper covers the design and features of our Jupyterhub service.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Modeling and Simulation of Fuel Dispersal During the Loss-of-Coolant Accident

This document is the compilation of the milestone portion to a larger end of project NEUP report. The executive summary of the modeling portion is provided below: In the event of cladding rupture during a postulated LOCA in a pressurized water reactor, fuel particles, along with fission gases, can be expelled into the reactor core from the fractured fuel rod, a phenomenon referred to as fuel dispersal. The initial stage of fuel dispersal is strongly influenced by the high-pressure ejection of fuel fragments, the size and geometry of the ruptured cladding, and the depressurization history of the fuel rod during the postulated LOCA transient. Depending on the location of the burst orifice relative to the quench front, the dispersal event represents an intricate three-phase flow and heat transfer phenomenon, where high-temperature fuel particles carried by the fission gases interact with the coolant within the narrow subchannels of the fuel assemblies, inducing localized phase change. Given the unique multiphysics nature of this phenomena, the current study develops a dedicated computational framework to predict the mass distribution and cooling of dispersing fuel particles, facilitating post-accident assessment and management of the fuel assemblies. Considering the scale of nuclear reactor applications, a continuum three-fluid model is proposed for simulating the transport of solids within the reactor core. With high-temperature fuel fragments within the liquid media, nucleation sites inducing phase changes are dispersed within the flow domain. Coupled with the fact that the transient dispersal event occurs on different time scales than other three-phase flow applications, this study derives a time-averaged three-fluid flow model without losing generality. The assumptions regarding the continuum treatment of the solid phase and the modeling of fuel dispersal behavior are incorporated to simplify the governing equations and derive applicable closure relations. The computational validation of the model was conducted using adiabatic experimental results obtained from ongoing research at Oregon State University, focusing on characterizing fuel dispersal behavior during simulated LOCA conditions. Settlement characteristics of the solids, quantified by the probability distribution of equivalent particles, closely matched the probability density functions reported in experimental studies. The transport of fuel particles within a scaled 5 × 5 lattice of a pressurized-water reactor rod bundle geometry was modeled through a two-fluid Eulerian framework. The required boundary conditions were evaluated from the fuel performance code BISON in a postulated large-break LOCA scenario. The modeling framework considered solid fuel particles as granular matter, interacting with the gaseous dry steam phase and fission gases through the governing interfacial momentum exchange between the participating fluids. The simulation results provided the volume fraction of the solids obtained at the bottom surface of the enclosing tank geometry. Postulated LOCA leading to fuel dispersal phenomena involves the strong coupling between fuel thermomechanics, cladding deformation, thermal-hydraulics, and fuel particle transport. Incorporation of such a strong coupling in numerical simulation is performed by coupling the multiphysics solvers. In the case of fuel dispersal, a strong coupled simulation can be performed by coupling the BISON code for fuel performance, the TRACE code for system-level thermal hydraulics, and fuel particle transport in Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). For such intricate infrastructure, the MOOSE Framework eases the data transfer between codes. The recent version of MOOSE has incorporated the Navier-Stokes module for the fluid flow. An exploratory exercise was done to gain familiarity with finite volume capabilities in the MOOSE framework to incorporate the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model. New finite-volume and auxiliary kernels were introduced to assemble the SA transport equation, compute turbulent viscosity, and evaluate wall distance and diagnostic turbulence terms, fully integrated with existing Navier-Stokes modules. A turbulent lid-driven cavity at a Reynolds number of approximately 10,000 is used for verification. MOOSE shows the robust solver convergence and produces the turbulent features. But it underpredicts the velocity profile and turbulent quantities, emphasizing the need to develop improved SA near-wall treatments (e.g., low-Re corrections or wall functions) as a key direction for future work.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Radiological Recovery Logistics Tool - 20161

Argonne is building and testing a tool, the Radiological Recovery Logistics Tool (RRLT), that can be used during the response and recovery from a radiological or nuclear incident to effectively allocate appropriate commercial and public works equipment to mitigate, remove, and contain radiological contamination. The requirements for this tool - as well as development of the resulting software - is overseen by a steering committee of stakeholders from DHS's National Urban Security Technology Laboratory (NUSTL), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). One essential requirement is for RRLT to support the efficient and appropriate allocation of resources for a radiological response. Subsequent discussions between ANL and stakeholders have solidified the nature of this support to include identification of the types of resources to be allocated. The study reported in this paper has both factored fundamental concepts and connections out of this identification process and created a Knowledge Base detailing support goals, response scenarios, and efficacy information on dozens of equipment types. In short, RRLT will dynamically apply these findings to situational conditions surrounding contamination incidents. RRLT's Domain, the model of elements, ideas and relationships with which the tool will work, draws concepts from technical reports and stakeholder vocabularies to connect response goals and scenarios to types of equipment that offer utility towards those goals in those scenarios. RRLT's Knowledge Base will contain details on dozens of equipment types and facilitate the operator's discovery and consumption of these details most pertinent to a dynamically selected subset of goals. The core of its Domain Model is based on a report authored by this team. This report [1] contains a comprehensive list of proposed equipment to accomplish various missions or scenarios that might arise after a large-scale radiological contamination incident in an urban environment or critical infrastructure. The report divides potential response and recovery efforts into five support goals: Survey and monitoring of the contaminated area; Mitigation of received dose to first responders: Decontamination (gross and final) of buildings, vehicles, roadways, parks, and other surfaces: Waste management of solid waste generated during recovery operations: and Containment of wastewater and other waste generated during the response and recovery phases. RRLT's development is driven by use cases. A use case is an intention with which a user approaches the software. Use cases are grouped into delivery increments to schedule development, testing, and presentation to stakeholders. This model partitions the system into seven increments: User Arrival and Authentication, Search and Navigation, Equipment Recommendation, Plan Management, Content Management, and Expanded Access. Once a user 15 authenticated, RRLT will present the user with a dashboard that allows them to explore or search RRLT's content. The dashboard will also include a 'Plan' panel for collecting decisions and relevant observations about an incident at hand to facilitate development of an equipment list. RRLT will offer three general modes of access to items in the knowledge base: - Keyword search for direct discovery of items, - Navigation along predetermined paths from recovery goal towards equipment types, and - Interactive guidance towards equipment types by an autonomous software agent: the Equipment Recommendation Wizard. This presentation will detail progress in the development of the RRLT and also discuss opportunities for those interested in providing feedback on its content and functionality. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Expected sensitivity to 128 Te neutrinoless double beta decay with the CUORE TeO 2 cryogenic bolometers

The CUORE experiment is a ton-scale array of TeO 2 cryogenic bolometers located at the underground Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso of Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), in Italy. The CUORE detector consists of 988 crystals operated as source and detector at a base temperature of ~ 10 mK. Such cryogenic temperature is reached and maintained by means of a custom built cryogen-free dilution cryostat, designed with the aim of minimizing the vibrational noise and the environmental radioactivity. The primary goal of CUORE is the search for neutrinoless double beta decay of 130 Te , but thanks to its large target mass and ultra-low background it is suitable for the study of other rare processes as well, such as the neutrinoless double beta decay of 128 Te. This tellurium isotope is an attractive candidate for the search of this process, due to its high natural isotopic abundance of 31.75%. The transition energy at (866.7 ± 0.7) keV lies in a highly populated region of the energy spectrum, dominated by the contribution of the two-neutrino double beta decay of 130 Te. As the first ton-scale infrastructure operating cryogenic TeO 2 bolometers in stable conditions, CUORE is able to achieve a factor > 10 higher sensitivity to the neutrinoless double beta decay of this isotope with respect to past direct experiments.

128-Te↗

The weathered bedrock vadose zone: A hidden control on water availability in the western United States (Final Technical Report)

This report summarizes the research completed during the project entitled "The weathered bedrock vadose zone: A hidden control on water availability in the western United States" (Award: DE-SC0018039). The report covers work completed between 9/15/17 and 9/14/20. The objective of the exploratory project work was to evaluate the overarching hypothesis that the subsurface underlying actively eroding landscapes is systematically structured as a result of a balance between weathering and erosion and that this structure leads to dynamic moisture storage within weathered rock. To accomplish project objectives, we characterized hillslope weathering profile structure and conducted subsurface moisture monitoring across four study sites with comparable bedrock types but differing erosion rate and hydroclimate: The Angelo Coast Range Reserve (ACRR), Sagehorn-Russell Ranch (SRR), Antelope Valley Ranch (AVR), and the LBNL Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA). New characterization and monitoring infrastructure at the AVR and SFA sites was established through this project and enables long-term monitoring of hydrologic and carbon fluxes at the sites for comparison with long-term monitoring in other sites. Deep drilling, downhole logging, and characterization of chemistry and porosity of rock recovered from drilling reveals two weathering fronts across the sites. A shallower front is marked by the extent of pervasive fracturing and oxidation of pyrite and organic carbon. A deeper weathering front is marked by the appearance of open fractures and discoloration. At the AVR site, multiple ridge tops of different hillslope length were investigated to establish the relationship between the weathering front and topography. Drilling reveals that the fraction of the hillslope relief that is weathered scales with hillslope length, consistent with the theoretical framework that guided the project relating groundwater drainage with landscape evolution. With the establishment of new boreholes, we have documented significant water storage in weathered bedrock using low-field borehole nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) across all four sites. In the upper 4 m of bedrock, the average water contents at ACRR, AVR, SRR, and SFA are approximately 25%, 16%, 25%, 23% respectively. At the ACRR site, where long-term monitoring via neutron probe surveys and time-domain transmission sensors are available, we have demonstrated that NMR reliably records moisture content and importantly, moisture content dynamics in weathered bedrock. Across all sites, our NMR monitoring has also revealed that a considerable fraction of the water storage occurs in fractures or pores that are significantly larger than the fine-grained bedrock matrix of the parent rock. To identify the proportion of water storage occurring in fractures and large pores, we analyzed the NMR signal by evaluating both the sum of echoes and an inversion of the NMR signal for a distribution of T2 relaxation times. Both methods reveal that at least 20% of the water storage occurs in fractures and larger pores across all sites. To constrain the interpretation of the in-situ field-scale NMR measurements, we compare the NMR response in the field to independent pore-structure information obtained via helium pycnometry. Results support the inference that dynamic seasonal water storage is dominantly restricted to the fracture network, which can reach 7% of the total volume. This dynamic range in water content is comparable to that of some soils, underscoring the need to understand how this region of the Earth System is structured, and functions as a hydrologic reservoir.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Report of the 2021 U.S. Community Study on the Future of Particle Physics (Snowmass 2021) Summary Chapter

The 2021-22 High-Energy Physics Community Planning Exercise (a.k.a. ``Snowmass 2021'') was organized by the Division of Particles and Fields of the American Physical Society. Snowmass 2021 was a scientific study that provided an opportunity for the entire U.S. particle physics community, along with its international partners, to identify the most important scientific questions in High Energy Physics for the following decade, with an eye to the decade after that, and the experiments, facilities, infrastructure, and R&D needed to pursue them. This Snowmass summary report synthesizes the lessons learned and the main conclusions of the Community Planning Exercise as a whole and presents a community-informed synopsis of U.S. particle physics at the beginning of 2023. This document, along with the Snowmass reports from the various subfields, will provide input to the 2023 Particle Physics Project Prioritization Panel (P5) subpanel of the U.S. High-Energy Physics Advisory Panel (HEPAP), and will help to guide and inform the activity of the U.S. particle physics community during the next decade and beyond.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

SIGNAL Game Manual

SIGNAL is a first of its kind experimental wargame developed as part of the Project on Nuclear Gaming (PoNG). In this document we describe the rules and game mechanics associated with the online version of SIGNAL created by team members from the University of California, Berkeley, Sandia National Laboratories, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation of New York. The game was developed as part of a larger research project to develop the experimental wargaming methodology and explore its use on a model scenario: the impact of various military capabilities on conflict escalation dynamics. We discuss the results of this research in a forthcoming paper that will include this manual as an appendix. It is our hope that this manual will both contribute to our players' understanding of the game prior to play and that it will allow for replication of the SIGNAL game environment for future research purposes. The manual begins by introducing the terminology used throughout the document. It then outlines the technical requirements required to run SIGNAL. The following section provides a description of the map, resources, infrastructure, tokens, and action cards used in the game environment. The manual then describes the user interface including the chat functions, trade mechanism, currency and population counts necessary for players to plan their actions. It then turns to the sequence of player actions in the game describing the signaling, action, and upkeep phases that comprise each round of play. It then outlines the use of diplomacy including alliances with minor states and trade between players. The manual also describes the process for scoring the game and determining the winner. The manual concludes with tips for players to remember as they embark upon playing the game.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Domestic Extremism (Executive Summary)

Domestic extremism (DE) has been a growing concern in the U.S. in recent months, as illustrated in multiple bulletins from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) warning law enforcement partners of the heightened threat. As concerns about these actors grows, it is important that facilities in the U.S. and internationally that protect critical assets, such as sensitive information, hazardous materials, or critical infrastructure, have effective methods in place to secure those assets. DE has challenged security systems through the danger of insider attack and violence, creating a new threat to be countered. In this effort, therefore, we used a literature review and focus group discussions with experts in critical asset security and extremism to understand the nature of the domestic extremist threat, to identify best practices in securing assets, recognize potential gaps in security measures to be corrected, and recommend actions for the Office of Radiological Security (ORS) to address DE with its partners.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

R&D Toward CUPID, a Tonne-Scale Bolometric 0vBB Experiment (Final Report)

This award supported the construction of infrastructure at MIT to test components for the future CUPID experiment. CUPID is the CUORE Upgrade with Particle ID. It uses Lithium molybdate crystals instrumented as scintillating bolometers to search for the neutrinoless double-beta decay of 100 Mo. A bolometer is a detector which uses the change in temperature of a crystal due to the passage of charged particles through the crystal to detect the particle. A scintillating bolometer uses a scintillating crystal as the primary bolometer and a germanium wafer as a secondary light-collecting bolometer. The charged particle therefore creates a heat and light signal, the ratio of these signals allows us to distinguish signal from background.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Double-Shell Tank Primary Bottom Visual Inspection Results - 20025

A pressing need for the Double-Shell Tank Integrity Program at Hanford is of the ability to inspect the bottom of the tanks. Though the DSTs' annulus spaces (the space between the internal and external tank walls) have been inspected visually since 1992 and with Ultrasonic Testing (UT) since 1996, inspections of the tank bottoms have been able to be conducted due to limitations of available technology, omitting about 40 percent of the tank surface below the maximum fill level from routine inspection. Visual inspections of the tank annulus have been conducted up to five times in some DSTs and portions of the annulus space for all of the DSTs has been inspected twice with UT. This region includes the walls of the primary tank and secondary liner along with accessible portions of the secondary liner bottom. Due to this lack of technology, the degradation of the primary tank bottom in Tank AY-102 was undetected until the tank leaked into its annulus space, confirmed in 2012. Since that time, WRPS has been working with the nondestructive examination community and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, to evaluate potential technologies to conduct these challenging remote inspections. Recent work has included the development, testing, and deployment of several remote visual inspection technologies to observe the condition of the primary tank bottom of the DSTs by leveraging air distribution slots in the refractory pad on which it rests. Robotic solutions to conduct this inspection were developed with a detailed understanding of the physical configuration and operational logistics. Understanding and subsequent communication of these details to vendors within the robotics and nondestructive examination community was a critical component to the successful production of these new tools. Throughout the FY16-FY18 years, vendors from nondestructive examination community were solicited for ideas to meet the tank bottom inspection challenge. Two tank bottom visual inspection solutions were then pursued to meet that challenge. Both tools were successfully deployed at Tank AP-107, and provided valuable visuals, never before obtained from the under tank environment of a double-shell tank. While there are minor opportunities for improvement identified with each system, general outcomes were overwhelmingly positive. Both systems were successfully able to navigate the refractory air slot pattern from the outer edge to the tank center and record video footage. The micro-crawler provided high quality and very stable footage through the air slot pattern, but took longer to deploy into the slots and traverse through them than the alternative system. The push-pull tethered camera was able to navigate all seven of its target air slots in a matter of a few hours, which included deployment, movement between slot entrances, and complete removal of the system from the annulus environment. Through these air slots, new information was gained about the tank bottom and refractory pad condition of tank AP-107, AP-106, AP-108, and AN-102. While some debris was noted in the air slots, including sand, chipped refractory, and construction materials, the refractory was found to be structurally stable and adequately supporting the primary tank bottom through the full diameter of the tank. Primary tank bottom steel exterior was found to be in good condition, free of ongoing or aggressive corrosion conditions. Looking toward the future, robotic access to and visual inspection of refractory air slots and the primary tank bottom steel has now proven viable. Incorporating periodic air slot inspections as a regular practice within the Double-Shell Tank Integrity Program is the next step, allowing trending of any changes in condition. As ultrasonic testing infrastructure was leveraged to complete the initial system deployments described in this report, it makes sense to adopt that same strategy for ongoing periodic examinations and deploy these primary tank bottom inspection tools alongside ultrasonic testing operations. Development of visual inspection tools to evaluate the primary tank bottom region of the double-shell tanks was planned as the first stage of inspection. Continued development of volumetric sensors and incorporation of these inspection tools into Hanford's ongoing Double-Shell Tank Integrity Program are the next steps, seeking to continuously expand understanding of asset integrity and remaining useful life. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

H2@Scale: Economic Potential of Hydrogen as an Energy Intermediate

The H2@Scale concept envisions hydrogen as an energy intermediate across multiple energy sectors. The concept is motivated both by the opportunity to produce hydrogen from low-cost energy resources, and by the many potential applications of hydrogen, including as energy for transportation - used directly in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), as a feedstock for synthetic fuels, and to upgrade oil and biomass - feedstock for industry (e.g., for ammonia production, metals refining, and other end uses), heat for industry and buildings, and electricity storage. A key hydrogen production opportunity is using variable renewable electricity (i.e., electricity generated by wind turbines or solar photovoltaic panels) during hours when generation exceeds the load on the grid as a source of low-cost, dispatch constrained electricity (LDE). In addition to producing low-cost hydrogen, electrolysis can also serve as a form of responsive load on the electric grid, which can enhance grid stability, reduce curtailment, and create a supplementary revenue stream for generators. The future use and adoption of hydrogen across end-use applications depends both the cost of hydrogen production and on each application's threshold price (i.e., the maximum price each application will pay for hydrogen - above that price, the application has an alternative that is more economic). We estimate economic potential of the hydrogen market - the quantity of hydrogen at an equilibrium price at which suppliers are willing to produce and consumers are willing to buy the same quantity of hydrogen - by developing supply and demand curves for hydrogen production and use. The demand curves are based on the threshold price for various quantities of hydrogen in each market, which is affected by projected prices for alternatives that could provide the same service (e.g., fuel for vehicles, feedstock for metals refining). The supply curves include hydrogen produced via natural gas steam methane reforming, high-temperature electrolysis coupled with nuclear power plants, biomass gasification, and low-temperature electrolysis using LDE. We use a range of market and technology-advancement assumptions to estimate the economic potential for five scenarios in the mid 21st century timeframe, and the corresponding impacts on energy use and emissions. We estimate hydrogen's economic potential to be 14-48 MMT/yr in the contiguous United States - corresponding to 1.5-5 times current annual consumption - depending on key assumptions about the future market conditions and the success of hydrogen production research and development (R&D) in our five scenarios. As a result of the estimated economic potential markets, we also approximate that grid-integrated electrolysis can increase the penetration of wind generation in the electricity market by providing a value stream for LDE, and that total U.S. fossil fuel use could decline below a scenario with high renewable penetration on the grid. We find that hydrogen has potential to provide technical and economic synergies when integrated across multiple sectors of the U.S. energy system, but continued R&D, infrastructure, and market development for LDE are required.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Progress in the Verification and Validation Efforts for START: A Spent Fuel Routing Tool

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) is planning for an integrated waste management approach to transport, store, and dispose of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and other high-level radioactive waste (HLW) as part of the Integrated Waste Management (IWM) program [1]. In support of this effort, the Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation (START) is being developed within the IWM program [2, 3]. This is a web-based decision support tool that can be used to analyze geospatial data related to the transportation of SNF and HLW. START is designed as a web-based application using an ArcGIS server through which the user can select the origin and destination of the route [4]. This is followed by selection of the mode of transportation of choice based on user preference. Some of the modes available to the user include rail, heavy haul truck, and barge. The option of utilizing more than one mode of transportation (intermodal transportation) is also implemented in START. A few examples of intermodal transportation include barge to rail, and heavy haul truck to rail. It must be noted that some routes might not have access to all modes of transportation, depending on the infrastructure availability at the origin and destination sites. Users can also select any stops or barriers they would like to introduce in the routes. This is followed by selection of the routing criteria of interest. Three primary routing options available to the user include minimum population, minimum distance, and minimum time. Apart from that, a few other options include accounting for a weighted average of the three aforementioned routing options. The next step involves the selection of the buffer distance of interest which includes the two choices available of 800 m and 2500 m, respectively. Finally, an option to select any prohibited rail carriers that the user does not wish to use is available. After making these selections, a route is ready to be created.

Gadey, Harish Reddy↗

Austere Human Missions to Mars

The Design Reference Architecture 5 (DRA 5) is the most recent concept developed by NASA to send humans to Mars in the 2030 time frame using Constellation Program elements. DRA 5 is optimized to meet a specific set of requirements that would provide for a robust exploration program to deliver a new six-person crew at each biennial Mars opportunity and provide for power and infrastructure to maintain a highly capable continuing human presence on Mars. This paper examines an alternate architecture that is scaled back from DRA 5 and might offer lower development cost, lower flight cost, and lower development risk. It is recognized that a mission set using this approach would not meet all the current Constellation Mars mission requirements; however, this 'austere' architecture may represent a minimum mission set that would be acceptable from a science and exploration standpoint. The austere approach is driven by a philosophy of minimizing high risk or high cost technology development and maximizing development and production commonality in order to achieve a program that could be sustained in a flat-funded budget environment. Key features that would enable a lower technology implementation are as follows: using a blunt-body entry vehicle having no deployable decelerators, utilizing aerobraking rather than aerocapture for placing the crewed element into low Mars orbit, avoiding the use of liquid hydrogen with its low temperature and large volume issues, using standard bipropellant propulsion for the landers and ascent vehicle, and using radioisotope surface power systems rather than a nuclear reactor or large area deployable solar arrays. Flat funding within the expected NASA budget for a sustained program could be facilitated by alternating cargo and crew launches for the biennial Mars opportunities. This would result in two assembled vehicles leaving Earth orbit for Mars per Mars opportunity. The first opportunity would send two cargo landers to the Mars surface to preposition a habitat, supplies, and exploration equipment. The next opportunity, two years later, would send to Mars orbit 1) a lander with a Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) and 2) a crewed Mars Transit Habitat with an Orion CEV for Earth return. The following opportunity, two years after the first crew, would go back to cargo-only launches. This alternation of cargo and crew opportunities results in a sustainable launch rate of six Ares V launches every two years. It is notable that four of the six launches per Mars opportunity are identical, build-to-print, Tran-Mars Injection stages. This type of production rate could lend itself well to a COTStype service provider, and would make it feasible to have a live spare in place in the event of a single launch failure.

landers↗

Space Transformation -- Localizing the Remote and Connecting the Isolated

In motivating the Space Transformation theme for this year’s 4S symposium, the organizers provided the following context, “Transformation of economies are driven by a change in values and accelerated by new technologies.” These words rang particularly true when I read them at the beginning of the holiday season. Like so many others, I was in the early phases of my Christmas shopping procrastination campaign, and I’d just been reflecting on how Amazon Prime was the transformational tool I’d been waiting for. Basic limiting principles of time and space, supply and demand, were all but erased by the Amazon Prime phenomenon. Coupled with emerging 3D printing and other adaptive manufacturing technologies, a transformation from deliberate planning to “think it … have it” had occurred, empowering me to procrastinate longer than I’d ever dreamed possible. The organizers went on to ponder, “Will space transformation also affect society?”, just as our team at the Air Force Research Lab’s (AFRL) Center for Rapid Innovation (CRI) were working alongside partners within our larger Integrated Capabilities Directorate, NASA’s Flight Opportunities and Small Spacecraft Technology programs, and DARPA’s Luna-10 program to develop technologies and execute demonstration missions that leverage the space domain to genuinely connect even the most remote and austere domains on the timeline of need. Picking apart the miracle that is Amazon prime, where does the model fail, and why? More relevantly to the theme of this year’s symposium, how can the space domain be used to overcome its limitations and minimize its weaknesses? Perhaps it is best assessed in the context of Use Cases. What are the Amazon delivery cost, schedule, and cargo limiters to the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Research Station, or the Lunar South Pole Research Station? This paper will explore enabling infrastructure that allows Amazon prime to thrive and assess the transformational enabling technologies that would be necessary to extend that miracle to the truly remote or the truly austere. Localizing the Remote • First, it will evaluate the ability of the on-going AFRL Rocket Cargo and Space Initiatives Ringside Seats systems, coupled with Astrobotic’s Xodiak and Xogdor capabilities, developed to support the NASA Flight Opportunities Program (FOP), to supply orbital/suborbital delivery to both improved and austere sites on the Earth and Moon. • Then, it will add the surface terminal distribution leg, with an examination of Lunar Outpost’s Mobile Autonomous Prospecting Platform (MAPP), equipped with Mobile Autonomous Robotic Swarm (MARS) software, and Intuitive Machine’s Hopper, developed with support of AFRL and NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program. Connecting the Isolated From there, it will focus on the destination, asking what implied destination services are required to support highly assured autonomous delivery. • Specifically, it will highlight Astrobotic’s Skymage mesh-networked publish and subscribe communication and navigation service, as well as AFRL’s on-going developments of radioisotope and reactor nuclear-sourced thermoelectric power generation and distribution systems under development under the Joint Emergent Technology Supplying On-orbit Nuclear Power (JETSON) program by Lockheed Martin, Westinghouse, Intuitive Machines, and Zeno Power, to provide the power service to locations well off the grid. • Finally, the paper will connect to the “human machine”. What connects the remote or in-situ human consumer to the remote domain? What connects the diverse international government and commercial services to each other? The former will focus on AFRL’s OraCloud feeding their Space Defense Control and Characterization System (SDCCS) and Lunar Station’s MoonHacker systems, while the latter will focus on the BlueHalo/Tensor LunX Technology Platform for the Cislunar Commodity Marketplace. In 1984, Krafft Ehricke famously remarked that, “If God wanted man to become a spacefaring species, He would have given man a Moon.” This paper is not about the Moon, but is about humans as a spacefaring species, shedding the pesky land/air limitations of the Amazon Prime model … so that we can all live a procrastinator’s “think it … have it” existence.

Charles Finley↗