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At least 541 records · Page 30

An Assessment of the Influence of Uncertainty in Temporally Evolving Streamflow Forecasts on Riverine Inundation Modeling

Continental-scale river forecasting platforms forecast streamflow at reaches that can be used as boundary conditions to drive a local-scale flood inundation model. Uncertainty accumulated during this process stems not only from any part of the forecasting chain but can also be caused by the daily variations in weather forcing that keeps evolving as the event advances. This work aims to examine the influence of the evolving forecast streamflow on predicting the maximum inundation for extreme floods. A diagnostic case study was made on the basis of a hindcast of Hurricane Matthew striking the eastern U.S. in 2016. The U.S. National Water Model was one-way coupled to a hydrodynamic inundation model through a developed automated workflow. Although the river forcing has significantly mismatched hydrographs versus observations, the simulated peak water surface elevations and maximum extents were validated to be comparable with the observations, which indicates that the inundation model may not be sensitive to the inherited uncertainty from the weather forcing. Moreover, the uncertainty of the forecast streamflow time series caused only one order of magnitude fewer variations in inundation prediction; this dampening effect may become clearer for extreme events with large areas inundated. In addition, the forecast total volume of stream discharge appears to be an important metric for assessing the performance of river forcing for inundation mapping, as a linear correlation between the total volume and the accuracy of the predicted peak water surface elevation and maximum extent was found, with the coefficients of determination all above 0.8. Extra best-practice experience of running similar operational tasks demonstrated the tradeoff between the cost and accuracy gain.

flood, national water model, RIFT↗

Effect of grazing flow on steady-state resistance of isolated square-edged orifices

Steady state diagnostic testing of an isolated orifice has shown the nature of the interaction between grazing and orifice flow causing the large increase in orifice resistance for both inflow and outflow. A simple inviscid interaction model is developed which uses thin aerofoil theory to account for pressure forces exerted at the interface between the orifice and grazing flow together with a one-dimensional discharge coefficient concept. The effect of grazing flow boundary layer thickness is also included in the model. Resistance measurements for each orifice tested, over a wide range of grazing flow speeds and flow rates, collapse into a single curve when plotted in terms of effective discharge coefficient against orifice to grazing velocity ratio. The correlation curves for inflow and outflow are different. Data for clustered orifices collapse in the same way as those for the single orifice. The effect of boundary layer thickness is compared with model predictions.

Rogers, T.↗

Diagnostics in the Extendable Integrated Support Environment (EISE)

Extendable Integrated Support Environment (EISE) is a real-time computer network consisting of commercially available hardware and software components to support systems level integration, modifications, and enhancement to weapons systems. The EISE approach offers substantial potential savings by eliminating unique support environments in favor of sharing common modules for the support of operational weapon systems. An expert system is being developed that will help support diagnosing faults in this network. This is a multi-level, multi-expert diagnostic system that uses experiential knowledge relating symptoms to faults and also reasons from structural and functional models of the underlying physical model when experiential reasoning is inadequate. The individual expert systems are orchestrated by a supervisory reasoning controller, a meta-level reasoner which plans the sequence of reasoning steps to solve the given specific problem. The overall system, termed the Diagnostic Executive, accesses systems level performance checks and error reports, and issues remote test procedures to formulate and confirm fault hypotheses.

Brink, James R.↗

Modification of a Successive Corrections Objective Analysis for Improved Derivative Calculations

The use of objectively analyzed fields of meteorological data for complex diagnostic studies and for the initialization of numerical prediction models places the requirements upon the objective method that derivatives of the gridded fields be accurate and free from interpolation error. A modification of an objective analysis developed by Barnes provides improvements in analyses of both the field and its derivatives. Theoretical comparisons, comparisons between analyses of analytical monochromatic waves, and comparisons between analyses of actual weather data are used to show the potential of the new method. The new method restores more of the amplitudes of desired wavelengths while simultaneously filtering more of the amplitudes of undesired wavelengths. These results also hold for the first and second derivatives calculated from the gridded fields. Greatest improvements were for the Laplacian of the height field; the new method reduced the variance of undesirable very short wavelengths by 72 pct. Other improvements were found in the divergence of the gridded wind field and near the boundaries of the field data.

Achtemeier, Gary L.↗

A first-order global model of Late Cenozoic climatic change: Orbital forcing as a pacemaker of the ice ages

The development of a theory of the evolution of the climate of the earth over millions of years can be subdivided into three fundamental, nested, problems: (1) to establish by equilibrium climate models (e.g., general circulation models) the diagnostic relations, valid at any time, between the fast-response climate variables (i.e., the 'weather statistics') and both the prescribed external radiative forcing and the prescribed distribution of the slow response variables (e.g., the ice sheets and shelves, the deep ocean state, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration); (2) to construct, by an essentially inductive process, a model of the time-dependent evolution of the slow-response climatic variables over time scales longer than the damping times of these variables but shorter than the time scale of tectonic changes in the boundary conditions (e.g., altered geography and elevation of the continents, slow outgassing, and weathering) and ultra-slow astronomical changes such as in the solar radiative output; and (3) to determine the nature of these ultra-slow processes and their effects on the evolution of the equilibrium state of the climatic system about which the above time-dependent variations occur. All three problems are discussed in the context of the theory of the Quaternary climate, which will be incomplete unless it is embedded in a more general theory for the fuller Cenozoic that can accommodate the onset of the ice-age fluctuations. We construct a simple mathematical model for the Late Cenozoic climatic changes based on the hypothesis that forced and free variations of the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (notably CO2), coupled with changes in the deep ocean state and ice mass, under the additional 'pacemaking' influence of earth-orbital forcing, are primary determinants of the climate state over this period. Our goal is to illustrate how a single model governing both very long term variations and higher frequency oscillatory variations in the Pleistocene can be formulated with relatively few adjustable parameters.

Saltzman, Barry↗

Specialized data analysis for the Space Shuttle Main Engine and diagnostic evaluation of advanced propulsion system components

The Marshall Space Flight Center is responsible for the development and management of advanced launch vehicle propulsion systems, including the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME), which is presently operational, and the Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) under development. The SSME's provide high performance within stringent constraints on size, weight, and reliability. Based on operational experience, continuous design improvement is in progress to enhance system durability and reliability. Specialized data analysis and interpretation is required in support of SSME and advanced propulsion system diagnostic evaluations. Comprehensive evaluation of the dynamic measurements obtained from test and flight operations is necessary to provide timely assessment of the vibrational characteristics indicating the operational status of turbomachinery and other critical engine components. Efficient performance of this effort is critical due to the significant impact of dynamic evaluation results on ground test and launch schedules, and requires direct familiarity with SSME and derivative systems, test data acquisition, and diagnostic software. Detailed analysis and evaluation of dynamic measurements obtained during SSME and advanced system ground test and flight operations was performed including analytical/statistical assessment of component dynamic behavior, and the development and implementation of analytical/statistical models to efficiently define nominal component dynamic characteristics, detect anomalous behavior, and assess machinery operational condition. In addition, the SSME and J-2 data will be applied to develop vibroacoustic environments for advanced propulsion system components, as required. This study will provide timely assessment of engine component operational status, identify probable causes of malfunction, and indicate feasible engineering solutions. This contract will be performed through accomplishment of negotiated task orders.

Source record↗

Time and Space Resolved Heat Transfer Measurements Under Nucleate Bubbles with Constant Heat Flux Boundary Conditions

Investigations into single bubble pool boiling phenomena are often complicated by the difficulties in obtaining time and space resolved information in the bubble region. This usually occurs because the heaters and diagnostics used to measure heat transfer data are often on the order of, or larger than, the bubble characteristic length or region of influence. This has contributed to the development of many different and sometimes contradictory models of pool boiling phenomena and dominant heat transfer mechanisms. Recent investigations by Yaddanapyddi and Kim and Demiray and Kim have obtained time and space resolved heat transfer information at the bubble/heater interface under constant temperature conditions using a novel micro-heater array (10x10 array, each heater 100 microns on a side) that is semi-transparent and doubles as a measurement sensor. By using active feedback to maintain a state of constant temperature at the heater surface, they showed that the area of influence of bubbles generated in FC-72 was much smaller than predicted by standard models and that micro-conduction/micro-convection due to re-wetting dominated heat transfer effects. This study seeks to expand on the previous work by making time and space resolved measurements under bubbles nucleating on a micro-heater array operated under constant heat flux conditions. In the planned investigation, wall temperature measurements made under a single bubble nucleation site will be synchronized with high-speed video to allow analysis of the bubble energy removal from the wall.

Myers, Jerry G.↗

Sensitivity of Precipitation in Coupled Land-Atmosphere Models

The project objective was to understand mechanisms by which atmosphere-land-ocean processes impact precipitation in the mean climate and interannual variations, focusing on tropical and subtropical regions. A combination of modeling tools was used: an intermediate complexity land-atmosphere model developed at UCLA known as the QTCM and the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Program general circulation model (NSIPP GCM). The intermediate complexity model was used to develop hypotheses regarding the physical mechanisms and theory for the interplay of large-scale dynamics, convective heating, cloud radiative effects and land surface feedbacks. The theoretical developments were to be confronted with diagnostics from the more complex GCM to validate or modify the theory.

Neelin, David↗

Functional Fault Model Development Process to Support Design Analysis and Operational Assessment

A functional fault model (FFM) is an abstract representation of the failure space of a givensystem. As such, it simulates the propagation of failure effects along paths between the origin ofthe system failure modes and points within the system capable of observing the failure effects. Asa result, FFMs may be used to diagnose the presence of failures in the modeled system. FFMsnecessarily contain a significant amount of information about the design, operations, and failuremodes and effects. One of the important benefits of FFMs is that they may be qualitative, ratherthan quantitative and, as a result, may be implemented early in the design process when there ismore potential to positively impact the system design. FFMs may therefore be developed andmatured throughout the monitored system's design process and may subsequently be used toprovide real-time diagnostic assessments that support system operations. This paper provides anoverview of a generalized NASA process that is being used to develop and apply FFMs. FFMtechnology has been evolving for more than 25 years. The FFM development process presented inthis paper was refined during NASA's Ares I, Space Launch System, and Ground SystemsDevelopment and Operations programs (i.e., from about 2007 to the present). Process refinementtook place as new modeling, analysis, and verification tools were created to enhance FFMcapabilities. In this paper, standard elements of a model development process (i.e., knowledgeacquisition, conceptual design, implementation & verification, and application) are describedwithin the context of FFMs. Further, newer tools and analytical capabilities that may benefit thebroader systems engineering process are identified and briefly described. The discussion isintended as a high-level guide for future FFM modelers.

Melcher, Kevin J.↗

Phase Contrast Imaging Diagnostic on DIII-D (1994-2007); Phase Contrast Imaging Diagnostic on DIII-D and Alcator C-Mod (2007-2010); Experimental Study of Waves, Turbulence and Transport, and Model Validation with Phase Contrast Imaging on DIII-D and Alcator C-Mod (2010-2012); Phase Contrast Imaging Diagnostic Upgrade on DIII-D for Measuring High-k Turbulence and Alfven modes (2021-2016); Phase Contrast Imaging Diagnostic Upgrade on DIII-D for Full Multi-Scale Measurements (2016-2020) (Final Report)

This report describes the first twenty-five years of development and use of the Phase Contrast Imaging (PCI) diagnostic for measuring plasma fluctuations on the DIII–D tokamak. One of the key challenges in moving tokamak technology forward to the stage of a nuclear reactor remains understanding how energy and particles are transported across the magnetic field by the action of turbulence and waves, and PCI provides a highly flexible and capable measurement of these fluctuations. The PCI diagnostic uses a laser beam to probe the plasma and optical filtering to produce an amplitude variation on a linear detector array which provides an image of the density waves in the plasma. The PCI covers an exceptional range in frequency and wavelength of the measured fluctuations, allowing observation of plasma-sized magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes and ion- and electron-scale turbulence. Modulation of the beam amplitude allows measurement of radio frequency (RF) waves.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Integration of Omics into a New Comprehensive Rate Law for Competitive Terminal Electron-Accepting Processes in Reactive Transport Models: Application to N, Fe, S, and Contaminant Transformations in Stream and Wetland Sediments

Surface waters represent important sources of alternate energy and drinking water in the United States, and characterizing the biogeochemical processes that affect surface water quality is relevant to the DOE-BER mission. Sediment biogeochemical processes regulate the release of carbon (C), nutrients, and contaminants to surface waters and thus influence water quality. Sediment biogeochemical processes are dynamic and affected by the deposition and remobilization of solid material and changes in environmental conditions driven by water discharge variations. Wetlands are important natural filters of surface waters which may either trap, metabolize, or mobilize nutrients and contaminants. Despite their importance, biogeochemical processes regulating nutrient and contaminant release and C transformation in stream and wetland sediments cannot be predicted accurately by current mathematical models. These reactive transport models largely rely on detectable changes in geochemical conditions to activate metabolic processes, do not accurately account for the competition between microbial processes, and poorly constrain effects of hydrological perturbations on biogeochemical processes. In this BER-SBR exploratory project, metagenomic and geochemical signatures were combined to identify microbially-mediated redox processes in anaerobic stream and wetland sediments from the Savannah River Site (SRS, ANL SFA) and East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC, ORNL SFA) that play important roles in C, uranium (U), and mercury (Hg) transformations. In addition, sediment incubations were conducted to examine the competition between anaerobic respiration processes Finally, new rate laws were developed for reactive transport models that rely on complementary metagenomic and geochemical signatures to identify the underlying anaerobic microbial processes in stream and wetland sediments, describe the competition between the dominant metabolic processes involved in nutrient release and U and Hg mobilization, and more accurately quantify carbon transformation and the response of microbial processes to changes in redox conditions associated with hydrological forcing. These rate laws were optimized in batch reactors with SRS wetland sediments, where iron and sulfate reduction dominate. Anaerobic carbon remineralization processes followed the expected thermodynamic sequence of microbial respiration with depth in both sediments, except that geochemical signals indicated that sulfate reduction was inactive in EFPC sediments and moderate in SRS wetland sediments. Estimates indicated that microbial iron reduction contributed to at least half of the production of reduced iron in these sediments. Incubations demonstrated that nitrate reduction, denitrification, and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium were active in the natural EFPC sediment and activated upon nitrate amendment in these nitrate-rich sediments. In turn, these processes were outcompeted by the addition of either iron oxides or sulfate as alternative terminal electron acceptors. Although geochemical products of sulfate reduction were not detected in the incubations, the abundance of sulfate reduction genes increased with depth in the sediment and was equally more pronounced in treatments amended with either iron oxides or sulfate. Simultaneously, anaerobic sulfide oxidizing bacteria coupling sulfide oxidation to DNRA (and not conventional denitrification) were apparently enriched over time, regardless of the treatments. These findings indicate that sulfate reduction is important in freshwater stream sediments and probably catalyzed by a cryptic sulfur cycle involving nitrogen species, in which the sulfur products from sulfate reduction are immediately removed by side reactions and not detectable by geochemical measurements alone. Similar experiments in SRS sediments, however, demonstrated little interaction between nitrogen and sulfur cycling microorganisms. Sulfate reduction was impacted by the addition of more thermodynamically favorable electron acceptors, suggesting either that iron-reducing microorganisms outcompeted sulfate-reducing microorganisms for organic substrate, depleting the stock of electron donor available for sulfate reduction, or that the cryptic sulfur cycle was shunted by the precipitation of FeS generated as a result of the abiotic reduction of iron oxides by dissolved sulfide. A diagnostic modeling exercise was conducted to further investigate the competition between terminal electron accepting processes. As conventional kinetic models typically do not account for cryptic cycles and used inaccurate formulations to describe competition between microbial communities, new metabolic rate laws were developed that explicitly express the electron acceptor-specific enzyme of each energetically favorable metabolic process based on gene abundance detected in the incubations. The model was tested with the sediment slurry incubation data to determine whether substrate competition could explain the decrease in sulfate reduction observed in the presence of iron oxide competitor. The model was able to reproduce geochemical concentrations really well in each treatment once the model was calibrated with the unamended control, suggesting that microbial competition was indeed driven by thermodynamic considerations. Overall, carbon remineralization processes and rates will be reproduced much more realistically with the new metabolic rate laws.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ultra-High-Speed X-ray Tomography: Bridging the Gaps to See the Unknown

Rapid, time-varying, three-dimensional physics underpin numerous engineering challenges. Often, these physics occur within opaque environments, internal to a component, severely limiting applicable diagnostics. Development of novel diagnostics is necessary to understand and predict transient three-dimensional (3D) phenomena within opaque environments. This report highlights progress in four key areas leading to advancements in high-speed X-ray radiography and tomography. The first area is enabling MHz-rate imaging of energetics at the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratory. The second is modeling a high-flux, rotating-anode X-ray source to understand the heat loads on the anode. The third effort was to develop a novel reconstruction algorithm that is validated by ground experimental tomography data and synthetic tomography data. The fourth is the development of a novel approach to two-color X-ray imaging.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Using Ultrasound Image Augmentation and Ensemble Predictions to Prevent Machine-Learning Model Overfitting

Deep learning predictive models have the potential to simplify and automate medical imaging diagnostics by lowering the skill threshold for image interpretation. However, this requires predictive models that are generalized to handle subject variability as seen clinically. Here, we highlight methods to improve test accuracy of an image classifier model for shrapnel identification using tissue phantom image sets. Using a previously developed image classifier neural network—termed ShrapML—blind test accuracy was less than 70% and was variable depending on the training/test data setup, as determined by a leave one subject out (LOSO) holdout methodology. Introduction of affine transformations for image augmentation or MixUp methodologies to generate additional training sets improved model performance and overall accuracy improved to 75%. Further improvements were made by aggregating predictions across five LOSO holdouts. This was done by bagging confidences or predictions from all LOSOs or the top-3 LOSO confidence models for each image prediction. Top-3 LOSO confidence bagging performed best, with test accuracy improved to greater than 85% accuracy for two different blind tissue phantoms. This was confirmed by gradient-weighted class activation mapping to highlight that the image classifier was tracking shrapnel in the image sets. Overall, data augmentation and ensemble prediction approaches were suitable for creating more generalized predictive models for ultrasound image analysis, a critical step for real-time diagnostic deployment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Automated fault detection and diagnosis deployment Internet of Things solution for building energy system

The building sector is the highest energy consumer and ranks first in terms of carbon emissions among all sectors. To address these issues, decarbonization and electrification in the building energy sector are two critical missions of the new US administration. For decarbonization, the new administration has set a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50–52% by 2030 and targeting a carbon-neutral economy by 2050. For electrification, the goal is to achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035. Such decarbonization and electrification in the building sector require that energy consumption in buildings be reduced significantly. Therefore, the building sector must continuously adopt new technologies to achieve its energy and carbon emission goals. One of the most fundamental technologies is the Internet of Things (IoT). IoT has proven to be an effective solution for the building domain, including building information/energy modeling, smart buildings, etc. Although much progress has been made in the development of IoT-based building energy systems, there is still a lack of reliable, scalable, and affordable IoT-based automated fault and degradation diagnostic (AFDD) solutions. Such solutions would enable deployment of advanced algorithms into real systems to archive the projected energy benefits. Here, this study reviews existing IoT solutions developed for building energy–related application and developed a simple but effective AFDD IoT deployment solution, including developing a suitable IoT architecture and conducting easy and scalable deployment by leveraging a common cloud-based IoT service.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Diagnostics of severe convection and subsynoptic scale ageostrophic circulations

Diagnostics of severe convection and subsynoptic scale ageostrophic circulations are reported. Mesoscale circulations through forcing of ageostrophic motion by adiabatic, diabatic and frictional processes were studied. The development and application of a hybrid isentropic sigma coordinate numerical model was examined. The numerical model simulates mesoscale ageostrophic circulations associated with propagating jet streaks and severe convection. A complete list of publications and these completed through support of the NASA severe storms research project is included.

Source record↗

The terminal area simulation system. Volume 1: Theoretical formulation

A three-dimensional numerical cloud model was developed for the general purpose of studying convective phenomena. The model utilizes a time splitting integration procedure in the numerical solution of the compressible nonhydrostatic primitive equations. Turbulence closure is achieved by a conventional first-order diagnostic approximation. Open lateral boundaries are incorporated which minimize wave reflection and which do not induce domain-wide mass trends. Microphysical processes are governed by prognostic equations for potential temperature water vapor, cloud droplets, ice crystals, rain, snow, and hail. Microphysical interactions are computed by numerous Orville-type parameterizations. A diagnostic surface boundary layer is parameterized assuming Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. The governing equation set is approximated on a staggered three-dimensional grid with quadratic-conservative central space differencing. Time differencing is approximated by the second-order Adams-Bashforth method. The vertical grid spacing may be either linear or stretched. The model domain may translate along with a convective cell, even at variable speeds.

Proctor, F. H.↗

Simulation-modeling tool for evaluation of space telerobotic control strategies

An object-oriented software graphic simulation and modeling tool is developed to explore human/autonomous control allocation for varied operational scenarios. The system provides designers with LISP workstations through which to simulate telerobotic operations, model human performance in those operations, examine task performance profiles, and investigate control and diagnostic strategies. It is suggested that the provision of such analytic tools along with the presentation of performance projections can assist designers in rapidly and conveniently exploring design alternatives for telerobotic system control.

Corker, Kevin↗

Dual-Mode Combustion of Hydrogen in a Mach 5, Continuous-Flow Facility

Results of an experimental and numerical study of a dual-mode scramjet combustor are reported. The experiment consisted of a direct-connect test of a Mach 2 hydrogen-air combustor with a single unswept-ramp fuel injector. The flow stagnation enthalpy simulated a flight Mach number of 5. Measurements were obtained using conventional wall instrumentation and a particle-imaging laser diagnostic technique. The particle imaging was enabled through the development of a new apparatus for seeding fine silicon dioxide particles into the combustor fuel stream. Numerical simulations of the combustor were performed using the GASP code. The modeling, and much of the experimental work, focused on the supersonic combustion mode. Reasonable agreement was observed between experimental and numerical wall pressure distributions. However, the numerical model was unable to predict accurately the effects of combustion on the fuel plume size, penetration, shape, and axial growth.

Goyne, C. P.↗