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NASA NTRS1986

Comparison of regional clear-sky albedos inferred from satellite observations and model computations

A comparison of model- and satellite-inferred clear sky top-of-atmosphere (TOA) albedos is presented. The clear sky albedos were inferred from GOES-2 observations for November 1978 over South America and most of North America and adjacent ocean regions. The model albedos were computed on a 1 deg X 1 deg latitude-longitude grid, allowing for variations in surface vegetation type, solar zenith angle, orography, and spectral absorption/scattering. Over the ocean areas, the observed and calculated TOA albedos agree within + or - 1 percent, while the albedos over land mostly agree within + or - 2 percent for the entire range of significant geographical variation of albedo from 13 percent over the Amazon Basin to 24 percent over mountains of western North America. Both the ocean and land agreements lie within the theoretical and observational uncertainties.

Briegleb, B. P.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Connecting Paleo and Modern Oceanographic Data to Understand Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Over Decades to Centuries

Modeling is an important tool for understanding AMOC on all timescales. Mechanistic studies of modern AMOC variability have been hampered by a lack of consistency between free-running models and the sensitivity of AMOC to resolution and parameterization. Recent work within the framework of the phase two Coordinated Ocean- Reference Experiments (CORE-II) addresses this issue head on, looking at model differences of AMOC mean state and interannual variability. One consistent feature across the models is that AMOC mean transport is related to mixed layer depths and Labrador Sea salt content, whereas interannual variability is primarily associated with Labrador Sea temperature anomalies. This is consistent with the hypothesized importance of salt balance for AMOC variability on geological timescales. The simulated relationships between AMOC and subsurface temperature anomalies in fully coupled climate models reveal subsurface AMOC fingerprints that could be used to reconstruct historical AMOC variations at low frequency.With the lack of long-term AMOC observations, models of ocean state that assimilate observational data have been explored as a way to reconstruct AMOC, but comparisons between models indicate they are quite variable in their AMOC representations. Karspeck et al. (2015) found that historical reconstructions of AMOC in such models are sensitive to the details of the data assimilation procedure. The ocean data assimilation community continues to address these issues through improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information.Two objectives of paleoclimate modeling are 1) to provide mechanistic information for interpretation of paleoclimate observations, and 2) to test the ability of predictive models to simulate Earth's climate under different background forcing states. In a good example of the first objective, Schmittner and Lund (2015) and Menviel et al. (2014) provided key information about the proxy signals expected under freshwater disturbance of AMOC, which were used to support the paleoclimate observations made by Henry et al. (2016). In an example of the second objective, Muglia and Schmittner (2015) analyzed Third Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) models of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and found consistently more intense and deeper AMOC transports relative to preindustrial simulations, counter to the paleoclimate consensus of LGM conditions, indicating that some processes are not well represented in the PMIP3 models. One challenge is to find adequate paleo observations against which to test these models. PMIP is now in phase 4 (part of CMIP6), which includes experiments covering five periods in Earth's history: the last millennium, last glacial maximum, last interglacial, and the mid-Pliocene. Newly compiled paleoclimate datasets from the PAGES2k project, more transient simulations, and participation of isotope enabled models planned for CMIP6PMIP4 will enable richer paleo data-model comparisons in the near future.

Kilbourne, Hali↗
NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Global Coronal Models with Multiple Independent Observables

Global coronal models seek to produce an accurate physical representation of the Sun's atmosphere that can be used, for example, to drive space-weather models. Assessing their accuracy is a complex task, and there are multiple observational pathways to provide constraints and tune model parameters. Here, we combine several such independent constraints, defining a model-agnostic framework for standardized comparison. We require models to predict the distribution of coronal holes at the photosphere, and neutral line topology at the model's outer boundary. We compare these predictions to extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) observations of coronal hole locations, white-light Carrington maps of the streamer belt, and the magnetic sector structure measured in situ by Parker Solar Probe and 1 au spacecraft. We study these metrics for potential field source surface (PFSS) models as a function of source surface height and magnetogram choice, as well as comparing to the more physical Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) and the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere (MAS) models. We find that simultaneous optimization of PFSS models to all three metrics is not currently possible, implying a trade-off between the quality of representation of coronal holes and streamer belt topology. WSA and MAS results show the additional physics that they include address this by flattening the streamer belt while maintaining coronal hole sizes, with MAS also improving coronal hole representation relative to WSA. We conclude that this framework is highly useful for inter- and intra-model comparisons. Integral to the framework is the standardization of observables required of each model, evaluating different model aspects.

S. T. Badman↗
NASA NTRS2022

Importance of Different Parameterization Changes for the Updated Dust Cycle Modeling in the Community Atmosphere Model (Version 6.1)

The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6.1), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM; version 2.1), simulates the life cycle (emission, transport, and deposition) of mineral dust and its interactions with physio-chemical components to quantify the impacts of dust on climate and the Earth system. The accuracy of such quantifications relies on how well dust-related processes are represented in the model. Here we update the parameterizations for the dust module, including those on the dust emission scheme, the aerosol dry deposition scheme, the size distribution of transported dust, and the treatment of dust particle shape. Multiple simulations were undertaken to evaluate the model performance against diverse observations, and to understand how each update alters the modeled dust cycle and the simulated dust direct radiative effect. The model–observation comparisons suggest that substantially improved model representations of the dust cycle are achieved primarily through the new more physically-based dust emission scheme. In comparison, the other modifications induced small changes to the modeled dust cycle and model–observation comparisons, except the size distribution of dust in the coarse mode, which can be even more influential than that of replacing the dust emission scheme. We highlight which changes introduced here are important for which regions, shedding light on further dust model developments required for more accurately estimating interactions between dust and climate.

mineral dust parameterizations↗
NASA NTRS1992

Stratospheric models and measurements: A critical comparison

The stated objectives of the High Speed Research Program/Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) initiative are to support research in the atmospheric sciences that will improve the basic understanding of the circulation and chemistry of the stratosphere and lead to interim assessments of the impact of a projected fleet of HSCT's on the stratosphere. Three model comparison workshops have been conducted, so far, in support of this goal. These workshops have been focused on the differences between models used to calculate the atmospheric effects of the proposed aircraft emissions. It is now possible to test these models against atmospheric data.

Remsberg, Ellis E.↗
NASA NTRS1972

The effects of recent opacity corrections on a main-sequence stellar model of 2.25 solar masses.

Comparison of models calculated with the opacities of Carson et al. (1968) and the electron-scattering corrections of Watson with models based on the opacities of Cox et al. (1965). The models have a mass of 2.25 solar masses and a chemical composition with X = 0.596 and Z = 0.02. With the adopted formulas representing the new opacities, it is found that the percentage changes with respect to the model based on the opacities of Cox et al. can be as large as +11 for the stellar radius, -42 for the luminosity, -15 for the effective temperature, -30 for the mass of the convective core, -8 for the central pressure, and -4 for both the central density and the central temperature.

Novotny, E.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Investigating Stable Oxygen and Carbon Isotopic Variability in Speleothem Records Over the Last Millennium Using Multiple Isotope-Enabled Climate Models

The incorporation of water isotopologues into the hydrology of general circulation models (GCMs) facilitates the comparison between modeled and measured proxy data in paleoclimate archives. However, the variability and drivers of measured and modeled water isotopologues, as well as the diversity of their representation in different models, are not well constrained. Improving our understanding of this variability in past and present climates will help to better constrain future climate change projections and decrease their range of uncertainty. Speleothems are a precisely datable terrestrial paleoclimate archives and provide well-preserved (semi-)continuous multivariate isotope time series in the lower latitudes and mid-latitudes and are therefore well suited to assess climate and isotope variability on decadal and longer timescales. However, the relationships of speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopes to climate variables are influenced by site-specific parameters, and their comparison to GCMs is not always straightforward. Here we compare speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopic signatures from the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis database version 2 (SISALv2) to the output of five different water-isotope-enabled GCMs (ECHAM5-wiso, GISS-E2-R, iCESM, iHadCM3, and isoGSM) over the last millennium (850–1850 CE). We systematically evaluate differences and commonalities between the standardized model simulation outputs. The goal is to distinguish climatic drivers of variability for modeled isotopes and compare them to those of measured isotopes. We find strong regional differences in the oxygen isotope signatures between models that can partly be attributed to differences in modeled surface temperature. At low latitudes, precipitation amount is the dominant driver for stable water isotope variability; however, at cave locations the agreement between modeled temperature variability is higher than for precipitation variability. While modeled isotopic signatures at cave locations exhibited extreme events coinciding with changes in volcanic and solar forcing, such fingerprints are not apparent in the speleothem isotopes. This may be attributed to the lower temporal resolution of speleothem records compared to the events that are to be detected. Using spectral analysis, we can show that all models underestimate decadal and longer variability compared to speleothems (albeit to varying extents). We found that no model excels in all analyzed comparisons, although some perform better than the others in either mean or variability. Therefore, we advise a multi-model approach whenever comparing proxy data to modeled data. Considering karst and cave internal processes, e.g., through isotope-enabled karst models, may alter the variability in speleothem isotopes and play an important role in determining the most appropriate model. By exploring new ways of analyzing the relationship between the oxygen and carbon isotopes, their variability, and co-variability across timescales, we provide methods that may serve as a baseline for future studies with different models using, e.g., different isotopes, different climate archives, or different time periods.

isotope-enabled simulations↗
NASA NTRS1977

A comparison between the current models of mid-latitude spread F and data from the Arecibo Observatory

The current models of mid-latitude F sub s are studied. The assumptions and derivations of the Reid model, the Scannapieco model, and the Perkins model are presented in detail. Incoherent-scatter data of the density profiles and velocity profiles were obtained in order that the models could be evaluated on the basis of experimental data. Initial studies indicated that the Perkins model was most representative of the data from Arecibo, so a detailed comparison of the predictions of the Perkins model and the data was made. Two of four nights studied are nights with F sub s. The Perkins model is derived in a frame of reference moving with the velocity of the neutral wind; the model is transformed to the rest frame to facilitate comparison with data. Several data handling techniques are introduced. In particular, an integration interval that remains constant in length, but follows the vertical motion of the peak of the F layer is used to obtain the field integrated quantities of the Perkins model.

Imel, G.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Developing a MATLAB(registered)-Based Tool for Visualization and Transformation

An important step in the structural design and development of spacecraft is the experimental identification of a structure s modal characteristics, such as its natural frequencies and modes of vibration. These characteristics are vital to developing a representative model of any given structure or analyzing the range of input frequencies that can be handled by a particular structure. When setting up such a representative model of a structure, careful measurements using precision equipment (such as accelerometers and instrumented hammers) must be made on many individual points of the structure in question. The coordinate location of each data point is used to construct a wireframe geometric model of the structure. Response measurements obtained from the accelerometers is used to generate the modal shapes of the particular structure. Graphically, this is displayed as a combination of the ways a structure will ideally respond to a specified force input. Two types of models of the tested structure are often used in modal analysis: an analytic model showing expected behavior of the structure, and an experimental model showing measured results due to observed phenomena. To evaluate the results from the experimental model, a comparison of analytic and experimental results must be made between the two models. However, comparisons between these two models become difficult when the two coordinate orientations differ in a manner such that results are displayed in an unclear fashion. Such a problem proposes the need for a tool that not only communicates a graphical image of a structure s wireframe geometry based on various measurement locations (called nodes), but also allows for a type of transformation of the image s coordinate geometry so that a model s coordinate orientation is made to match the orientation of another model. Such a tool should also be designed so that it is able to construct coordinate geometry based on many different listings of node locations and is able to transform the wireframe coordinate orientation to match almost any possible orientation (i.e. it should not be a problem specific application) if it is to be of much value in modal analysis. Also, since universal files are used to store modal parameters and wireframe geometry, the tool must be able to read and extract information from universal files and use these files to exchange model data.The purpose of this project is to develop such a tool as a computer graphical user interface (GUI) capable of performing the following tasks: 1) Browsing for a particular universal file within the computer directory and displaying the name of this file to the screen; 2) Plotting each of the nodes within the universal file in a useful, descriptive, and easily understood figure; 3) Reading the node numbers from the selected file and listing these node numbers to the user for selection in an easily accessible format; 4) Allowing for user selection of a new model orientation defined by three selected nodes; and 5) Allowing the user to specify a directory to which the transformed model s node locations will be saved, and saving the transformed node locations to the specified file.

Anderton, Blake J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Numerical Modeling and Test Data Comparison of Propulsion Test Article Helium Pressurization System

A transient model of the propulsion test article (PTA) helium pressurization system was developed using the generalized fluid system simulation program (GFSSP). The model included pressurization lines from the facility interface to the engine purge interface and liquid oxygen (lox) and rocket propellant-1 (RP-1) tanks, the propellant tanks themselves including ullage space, and propellant feed lines to their respective pump interfaces. GFSSP's capability was extended to model a control valve to maintain ullage pressure within a specified limit and pressurization processes such as heat transfer between ullage gas, propellant, and the tank wall as well as conduction in the tank wall. The purpose of the model is to predict the flow system characteristics in the entire pressurization system during 80 sec of lower feed system priming, 420 sec of fuel and lox pump priming, and 150 sec of engine firing.

Holt, Kimberly↗
NASA NTRS1974

Global detailed geoid computation and model analysis

Comparisons and analyses were carried out through the use of detailed gravimetric geoids which we have computed by combining models with a set of 26,000 1 deg x 1 deg mean free air gravity anomalies. The accuracy of the detailed gravimetric geoid computed using the most recent Goddard earth model (GEM-6) in conjunction with the set of 1 deg x 1 deg mean free air gravity anomalies is assessed at + or - 2 meters on the continents of North America, Europe, and Australia, 2 to 5 meters in the Northeast Pacific and North Atlantic areas, and 5 to 10 meters in other areas where surface gravity data are sparse. The R.M.S. differences between this detailed geoid and the detailed geoids computed using the other satellite gravity fields in conjuction with same set of surface data range from 3 to 7 meters.

Marsh, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A critical comparison of two-equation turbulence models

Several two-equation models were proposed and tested against benchmark flows by various researchers. For each study, different numerical methods or codes were used to obtain the results which were reported to be an improvement over other models. However, these comparisons may be overshadowed by the different numerical schemes used to obtain the results. With this in mind, several existing two-equation turbulence models, including k-epsilon, k-tau, k-omega, and q-omega models, are implemented into a common flow solver code for near wall turbulent flows. The quality of each model is based on several criteria, including robustness and accuracy of predicting the turbulent quantities.

Lang, N. J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Martian atmosphere modeling between 0.4 and 3.5 microns - Comparison of theory and experiment

A model of the lower atmosphere of Mars has been constructed that combines aerosol absorption and scattering with a line-by-line analysis of CO2 and H2O in a multilayer radiative transfer program. Aerosol composition previously inferred from the NASA Lear Jet Observatory data was used to measure the optical complex indices of refraction of appropriate Martian analogs from 0.4 to 2.5 microns. The aerosol vertical particle density scale was deduced using the Viking camera observations of the soil and sky intensities between 0.4 and 1.0 microns in comparison with those modeled using a multilayer Mie scattering program. A comparison of observed Mars atmospheric absorptions was made with those obtained using Lorentz, Voigt, and Doppler line profiles in a multilayer model of the CO2 and H2O. The Voigt line profile of CO2 absorption at approximately 4976 kaysers was then combined in a multilayer aerosol model of the Martian atmosphere. An evaluation of the effect on the line shape was made using several aerosol loadings.

Egan, W. G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Comparison of 2-D model simulations of ozone and nitrous oxide at high latitudes with stratospheric measurements

A linear reference relationship between O3 and N2O has been used to estimate polar winter O3 loss from aircraft data taken in the lower stratosphere. Here, this relationship is evaluated at high latitudes by comparing it with a 2D model simulation and with NIMBUS 7 satellite measurements. Although comparisons with satellite measurements are limited to January through May, the model simulations are compared during other seasons. The model simulations and the satellite data are found to be consistent with the winter O3 loss analysis. It is shown that such analyses are likely to be inappropriate during other seasons.

Proffitt, M. H.↗
NASA NTRS2010

ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA s ORDEM2010 and ESA s MASTER-2009, have been publicly released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper details the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations of both ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population analysis. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.

Krisko, Paula H.↗
NASA NTRS2012

ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA's ORDEM 3.0 and ESA's MASTER-2009, have been publicly released within the last year. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper describes the population generation and categorization of both ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population verification. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are presented and discussed. Future collaborative analysis is noted.

Krisko, P. H.↗