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Results for “maximum likelihood estimation”

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

BICEP/Keck. XX. Component-separated Maps of the Polarized Cosmic Microwave Background and Thermal Dust Emission Using Planck and BICEP/Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season

We present component-separated polarization maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and Galactic thermal dust emission, derived using data from the BICEP/Keck experiments through the 2018 observing season and Planck. By employing a maximum-likelihood method that utilizes observing matrices, we produce unbiased maps of the CMB and dust signals. We outline the computational challenges and demonstrate an efficient implementation of the component map estimator. We show methods to compute and characterize power spectra of these maps, opening up an alternative way to infer the tensor-to-scalar ratio from our data. We compare the results of this map-based separation method with the baseline BICEP/Keck analysis. Our analysis demonstrates consistency between the two methods, finding an 84% correlation between the pipelines.

cosmic inflation↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Recommended Procedure for Estimating the Cosmic-Ray Spectral Parameter of a Simple Power Law With Applications to Detector Design

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index alpha-1 is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV. Two procedures for estimating alpha-1 the method of moments and maximum likelihood (ML), are developed and their statistical performance compared. It is concluded that the ML procedure attains the most desirable statistical properties and is hence the recommended statistical estimation procedure for estimating alpha-1. The ML procedure is then generalized for application to a set of real cosmic-ray data and thereby makes this approach applicable to existing cosmic-ray data sets. Several other important results, such as the relationship between collecting power and detector energy resolution, as well as inclusion of a non-Gaussian detector response function, are presented. These results have many practical benefits in the design phase of a cosmic-ray detector as they permit instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of one of the science objectives. This is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS2000

A statistical model of the human core-temperature circadian rhythm

We formulate a statistical model of the human core-temperature circadian rhythm in which the circadian signal is modeled as a van der Pol oscillator, the thermoregulatory response is represented as a first-order autoregressive process, and the evoked effect of activity is modeled with a function specific for each circadian protocol. The new model directly links differential equation-based simulation models and harmonic regression analysis methods and permits statistical analysis of both static and dynamical properties of the circadian pacemaker from experimental data. We estimate the model parameters by using numerically efficient maximum likelihood algorithms and analyze human core-temperature data from forced desynchrony, free-run, and constant-routine protocols. By representing explicitly the dynamical effects of ambient light input to the human circadian pacemaker, the new model can estimate with high precision the correct intrinsic period of this oscillator ( approximately 24 h) from both free-run and forced desynchrony studies. Although the van der Pol model approximates well the dynamical features of the circadian pacemaker, the optimal dynamical model of the human biological clock may have a harmonic structure different from that of the van der Pol oscillator.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗
NASA NTRS1975

Precise optical pulse timing

This paper evaluates the performance of the maximum likelihood and several sub-optimum arrival time estimators for optical pulses. The performance analysis of a 'sliding window' counter followed by that of a threshold detector is achieved by deriving an expression for the first crossing density of the output of the counter. A sub-optimum arrival time estimator using a threshold rather than a maximum detector is suggested and evaluated by simulation. It appears to provide near optimum performance.

Lee, G.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deducing neutron star equation of state from telescope spectra with machine-learning-derived likelihoods

The interiors of neutron stars reach densities and temperatures beyond the limits of terrestrial experiments, providing vital laboratories for probing nuclear physics. While the star's interior is not directly observable, its pressure and density determine the star's macroscopic structure which affects the spectra observed in telescopes. The relationship between the observations and the internal state is complex and partially intractable, presenting difficulties for inference. Previous work has focused on the regression from stellar spectra of parameters describing the internal state. We demonstrate a calculation of the full likelihood of the internal state parameters given observations, accomplished by replacing intractable elements with machine learning models trained on samples of simulated stars. Our machine-learning-derived likelihood allows us to perform maximum a posteriori estimation of the parameters of interest, as well as full scans. We demonstrate the technique by inferring stellar mass and radius from an individual stellar spectrum, as well as equation of state parameters from a set of spectra. Our results are more precise than pure regression models, reducing the width of the parameter residuals by 11.8% in the most realistic scenario. The neural networks will be released as a tool for fast simulation of neutron star properties and observed spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Simulator for Neyer Tests of Explosives

Explosives and explosive devices such as detonators are typically tested by applying a range of stimuli such as voltage or mechanical shock, and recording binary “detonated/did not detonate” responses. These are analyzed using maximum likelihood or generalized linear models to provide estimates of quantities such as the all-fire and no-fire points. Given that the true threshold for detonation is unknown a priori , sequential design methods are typically used to optimize the set of test points. One popular method, implemented in commercial software, is Neyer’s algorithm. To support simulation and experimental design, we have developed code in the R programming language to duplicate the functions of the Neyer software. We provide code for the simulator along with a description and examples of usage.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1976

Optical pulse timing resolution

This correspondence evaluates the performance of the maximum likelihood (ML) and several suboptimal arrival time estimators for optical pulses. The performance analysis of a 'sliding window' counter followed by a threshold detector is achieved by deriving an expression for the first-crossing density of the output of the counter.

Lee, G.↗
NASA NTRS1978

A comparative study of optimum and suboptimum direct-detection laser ranging receivers

A summary of previously proposed receiver strategies for direct-detection laser ranging receivers is presented. Computer simulations are used to compare performance of candidate implementation strategies in the 1- to 100-photoelectron region. Under the condition of no background radiation, the maximum-likelihood and minimum mean-square error estimators were found to give the same performance for both bell-shaped and rectangular optical-pulse shapes. For signal energies greater than 100 photoelectrons, the root-mean-square range error is shown to decrease as Q to the -1/2 power for bell-shaped pulses and Q to the -1 power for rectangular pulses, where Q represents the average pulse energy. Of several receiver implementations presented, the matched-filter peak detector was found to be preferable. A similar configuration, using a constant-fraction discriminator, exhibited a signal-level dependent time bias.

Abshire, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Identification of integro-differential systems for application to unsteady aerodynamics and aeroelasticity

Integrodifferential equations for unsteady aerodynamic and aeroelastic phenomena are identified by means of several approaches. When the product of the frequency of motion and maximum time delay is much smaller than unity, the integral term can be approximated by a constant; when greater than unity, however, approximation of the integral is not possible. Approximations of integrodifferential models are needed to obtain identifiability. While the least-squares method may be used for model determination, the maximum likelihood technique is needed for accurate parameter estimation. High angle of attack and post stall/spin regions appear to have characteristics that can be satisfied by indicial models.

Gupta, N. K.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Polarimetry Data with Angular Uncertainties

For a track based polarimeter, such as the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE), the sensitivity to polarization depends on the modulation factor, which is a strong function of energy. In previous work, a likelihood method was developed that would account for this variation in order to estimate the minimum detectable polarization (MDP). That method essentially required that the position angles of individual events should be known precisely. In a separate work, however, it was shown that using a machine-learning method for measuring event tracks can generate track angle uncertainties, which can be used in the analysis. Here, the maximum likelihood method is used as a basis for revising the estimate of the MDP in a general way that can include uncertainties in event track position angles. The resultant MDP depends solely upon the distribution of track angle uncertainties present in the input data. Due to the physics of the IXPE detectors, it is possible to derive a simple relationship between these angular uncertainties and the energy-dependent modulation function as a step in the process.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1989

Estimation and tracking for deep-space optical communications

The importance of pointing and tracking is demonstrated with current deep-space optical communications system concepts. Maximum-likelihood (ML), minimum square counting-error (MSCE), and maximum product (MP) estimation algorithms (or decision rules) are derived to estimate the location of the receiving station to subpixel resolution. Comparisons of the above algorithms are made, via Monte Carlo computer simulation, in terms of estimator's bias and variance. Optical communication link analyses are made for a typical earth-Mars scenario, to gain engineering insights. It is observed that both the ML rule and the MSCE rule perform better than the MP rule.

Win, Moe Zaw↗
NASA NTRS1994

Closed-loop carrier phase synchronization techniques motivated by likelihood functions

This article reexamines the notion of closed-loop carrier phase synchronization motivated by the theory of maximum a posteriori phase estimation with emphasis on the development of new structures based on both maximum-likelihood and average-likelihood functions. The criterion of performance used for comparison of all the closed-loop structures discussed is the mean-squared phase error for a fixed-loop bandwidth.

Tsou, H.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Simultaneous detection and intensity estimation of an optical image

A statistical model for simultaneous detection and single parameter estimation of a stochastic signal against background noise is obtained. Two strategies, Bayes and maximum likelihood, are discussed. The detection of an optical point source imaged on a photosensitive surface and the estimation of its intensity based on such strategies are examined. An almost optimum estimate is also proposed and its statistical properties are studied.

Wang, L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

An Adaptive Kalman Filter Using a Simple Residual Tuning Method

One difficulty in using Kalman filters in real world situations is the selection of the correct process noise, measurement noise, and initial state estimate and covariance. These parameters are commonly referred to as tuning parameters. Multiple methods have been developed to estimate these parameters. Most of those methods such as maximum likelihood, subspace, and observer Kalman Identification require extensive offline processing and are not suitable for real time processing. One technique, which is suitable for real time processing, is the residual tuning method. Any mismodeling of the filter tuning parameters will result in a non-white sequence for the filter measurement residuals. The residual tuning technique uses this information to estimate corrections to those tuning parameters. The actual implementation results in a set of sequential equations that run in parallel with the Kalman filter. A. H. Jazwinski developed a specialized version of this technique for estimation of process noise. Equations for the estimation of the measurement noise have also been developed. These algorithms are used to estimate the process noise and measurement noise for the Wide Field Infrared Explorer star tracker and gyro.

Harman, Richard R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

An Adaptive Kalman Filter using a Simple Residual Tuning Method

One difficulty in using Kalman filters in real world situations is the selection of the correct process noise, measurement noise, and initial state estimate and covariance. These parameters are commonly referred to as tuning parameters. Multiple methods have been developed to estimate these parameters. Most of those methods such as maximum likelihood, subspace, and observer Kalman Identification require extensive offline processing and are not suitable for real time processing. One technique, which is suitable for real time processing, is the residual tuning method. Any mismodeling of the filter tuning parameters will result in a non-white sequence for the filter measurement residuals. The residual tuning technique uses this information to estimate corrections to those tuning parameters. The actual implementation results in a set of sequential equations that run in parallel with the Kalman filter. Equations for the estimation of the measurement noise have also been developed. These algorithms are used to estimate the process noise and measurement noise for the Wide Field Infrared Explorer star tracker and gyro.

Harman, Richard R.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Noncoherent DTTLs for Symbol Synchronization

Noncoherent data-transition tracking loops (DTTLs) have been proposed for use as symbol synchronizers in digital communication receivers. [Communication- receiver subsystems that can perform their assigned functions in the absence of synchronization with the phases of their carrier signals ( carrier synchronization ) are denoted by the term noncoherent, while receiver subsystems that cannot function without carrier synchronization are said to be coherent. ] The proposal applies, more specifically, to receivers of binary phase-shift-keying (BPSK) signals generated by directly phase-modulating binary non-return-to-zero (NRZ) data streams onto carrier signals having known frequencies but unknown phases. The proposed noncoherent DTTLs would be modified versions of traditional DTTLs, which are coherent. The symbol-synchronization problem is essentially the problem of recovering symbol timing from a received signal. In the traditional, coherent approach to symbol synchronization, it is necessary to establish carrier synchronization in order to recover symbol timing. A traditional DTTL effects an iterative process in which it first generates an estimate of the carrier phase in the absence of symbol-synchronization information, then uses the carrier-phase estimate to obtain an estimate of the symbol-synchronization information, then feeds the symbol-synchronization estimate back to the carrier-phase-estimation subprocess. In a noncoherent symbol-synchronization process, there is no need for carrier synchronization and, hence, no need for iteration between carrier-synchronization and symbol- synchronization subprocesses. The proposed noncoherent symbolsynchronization process is justified theoretically by a mathematical derivation that starts from a maximum a posteriori (MAP) method of estimation of symbol timing utilized in traditional, coherent DTTLs. In that MAP method, one chooses the value of a variable of interest (in this case, the offset in the estimated symbol timing) that causes a likelihood function of symbol estimates over some number of symbol periods to assume a maximum value. In terms that are necessarily oversimplified to fit within the space available for this article, it can be said that the mathematical derivation involves a modified interpretation of the likelihood function that lends itself to noncoherent DTTLs. The proposal encompasses both linear and nonlinear noncoherent DTTLs. The performances of both have been computationally simulated; for comparison, the performances of linear and nonlinear coherent DTTLs have also been computationally simulated. The results of these simulations show that, among other things, the expected mean-square timing errors of coherent and noncoherent DTTLs are relatively insensitive to window width. The results also show that at high signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), the performances of the noncoherent DTTLs approach those of their coherent counterparts at, while at low SNRs, the noncoherent DTTLs incur penalties of the order of 1.5 to 2 dB.

Simon, Marvin↗
NASA NTRS1998

Role of metabolic gases in bubble formation during hypobaric exposures

Our hypothesis is that metabolic gases play a role in the initial explosive growth phase of bubble formation during hypobaric exposures. Models that account for optimal internal tensions of dissolved gases to predict the probability of occurrence of venous gas emboli were statistically fitted to 426 hypobaric exposures from National Aeronautics and Space Administration tests. The presence of venous gas emboli in the pulmonary artery was detected with an ultrasound Doppler detector. The model fit and parameter estimation were done by using the statistical method of maximum likelihood. The analysis results were as follows. 1) For the model without an input of noninert dissolved gas tissue tension, the log likelihood (in absolute value) was 255.01. 2) When an additional parameter was added to the model to account for the dissolved noninert gas tissue tension, the log likelihood was 251.70. The significance of the additional parameter was established based on the likelihood ratio test (P < 0.012). 3) The parameter estimate for the dissolved noninert gas tissue tension participating in bubble formation was 19. 1 kPa (143 mmHg). 4) The additional gas tissue tension, supposedly due to noninert gases, did not show an exponential decay as a function of time during denitrogenation, but it remained constant. 5) The positive sign for this parameter term in the model is characteristic of an outward radial pressure of gases in the bubble. This analysis suggests that dissolved gases other than N2 in tissues may facilitate the initial explosive bubble-growth phase.

NASA Center JSC↗