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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Density reconstruction in convergent high-energy-density systems using x-ray radiography and Bayesian inference

X-ray radiography is a technique frequently used to diagnose convergent high-energy-density (HED) systems, such as inertial confinement fusion implosion, and provides unique information that is not available through self-emission measurements. In this work, we investigate the scope and limits of that information using a radiography simulation combined with the Bayesian inference workflow. The accuracy of density reconstruction from simulated radiographs of spherical implosions driven with 27 kJ laser energy is assessed, including the increase or decrease in accuracy due to the addition of Lagrangian marker layers, Poisson noise, and improved prior information. This work is the first to present the full uncertainty distributions inferred from radiography analysis in HED systems and demonstrates the importance of constructing the full posterior probability density, as opposed to a point estimate, due to the modal structure of the likelihood surface introduced by typical experimental noise sources. This general methodology can be used both for robust analysis of radiographic data and for an improved design of radiography experiments by modeling the full experimental system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A knock-on deuteron imager for measurements of fuel and hotspot asymmetry in direct-drive inertial confinement fusion implosions (invited)

A knock-on deuteron imager (KoDI) has been implemented to measure the fuel and hotspot asymmetry of cryogenic inertial confinement fusion implosions on OMEGA. Energetic neutrons produced by D–T fusion elastically scatter (“knock on”) deuterons from the fuel layer with a probability that depends on ρR. Deuterons above 10 MeV are produced by near-forward scattering, and imaging them is equivalent to time-integrated neutron imaging of the hotspot. Deuterons below 6 MeV are produced by a combination of side scattering and ranging in the fuel, and encode information about the spatial distribution of the dense fuel. Here, the KoDI instrument consists of a multi-penumbral aperture positioned 10–20 cm from the implosion using a ten-inch manipulator and a detector pack at 350 cm from the implosion to record penumbral images with magnification of up to 35×. Range filters and the intrinsic properties of CR-39 are used to distinguish different charged-particle images by energy along the same line of sight. Image plates fielded behind the CR-39 record a 10 keV x-ray image using the same aperture. A maximum-likelihood reconstruction algorithm has been implemented to infer the source from the projected penumbral images. The effects of scattering and aperture charging on the instrument point-spread function are assessed. Synthetic data are used to validate the reconstruction algorithm and assess an appropriate termination criterion. Significant aperture charging has been observed in the initial experimental dataset, and increases with aperture distance from the implosion, consistent with a simple model of charging by laser-driven EMP.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inexact iterative numerical linear algebra for neural network-based spectral estimation and rare-event prediction

Understanding dynamics in complex systems is challenging because there are many degrees of freedom, and those that are most important for describing events of interest are often not obvious. The leading eigenfunctions of the transition operator are useful for visualization, and they can provide an efficient basis for computing statistics, such as the likelihood and average time of events (predictions). Here, we develop inexact iterative linear algebra methods for computing these eigenfunctions (spectral estimation) and making predictions from a dataset of short trajectories sampled at finite intervals. We demonstrate the methods on a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization and a high-dimensional model of a biomolecular system. Implications for the prediction problem in reinforcement learning are discussed.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thinking Bayesian for plasma physicists

Bayesian statistics offers a powerful technique for plasma physicists to infer knowledge from the heterogeneous data types encountered. To explain this power, a simple example, Gaussian Process Regression, and the application of Bayesian statistics to inverse problems are explained. The likelihood is the key distribution because it contains the data model, or theoretic predictions, of the desired quantities. By using prior knowledge, the distribution of the inferred quantities of interest based on the data given can be inferred. Because it is a distribution of inferred quantities given the data and not a single prediction, uncertainty quantification is a natural consequence of Bayesian statistics. The benefits of machine learning in developing surrogate models for solving inverse problems are discussed, as well as progress in quantitatively understanding the errors that such a model introduces.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cross-correlation image analysis for real-time single particle tracking

Accurately measuring the translations of objects between images is essential in many fields, including biology, medicine, chemistry, and physics. One important application is tracking one or more particles by measuring their apparent displacements in a series of images. Popular methods, such as the center of mass, often require idealized scenarios to reach the shot noise limit of particle tracking and, therefore, are not generally applicable to multiple image types. More general methods, such as maximum likelihood estimation, reliably approach the shot noise limit, but are too computationally intense for use in real-time applications. These limitations are significant, as real-time, shot-noise-limited particle tracking is of paramount importance for feedback control systems. To fill this gap, we introduce a new cross-correlation-based algorithm that approaches shot-noise-limited displacement detection and a graphics processing unit-based implementation for real-time image analysis of a single particle.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Large deviations of ionic currents in dilute electrolytes

Here, we evaluate the exponentially rare fluctuations of the ionic current for a dilute electrolyte by means of macroscopic fluctuation theory. We consider the fluctuating hydrodynamics of a fluid electrolyte described by a stochastic Poisson–Nernst–Planck equation. We derive the Euler–Lagrange equations that dictate the optimal concentration profiles of ions conditioned on exhibiting a given current, whose form determines the likelihood of that current in the long-time limit. For a symmetric electrolyte under small applied voltages, number density fluctuations are small, and ionic current fluctuations are Gaussian with a variance determined by the Nernst–Einstein conductivity. Under large applied potentials, the ionic current distribution is generically non-Gaussian. Its structure is constrained thermodynamically by Gallavotti–Cohen symmetry and the thermodynamic uncertainty principle.

Farhadi, Jafar [University of California, Berkeley↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evidence that Criegee intermediates drive autoxidation in unsaturated lipids

Significance Autoxidation leads to the slow persistent destruction of organic molecules causing oxidative stress and associated disease. The prevailing autoxidation mechanism of unsaturated lipids involves chain reactions initiated and propagated by H-atom abstraction, mediated by peroxy radicals and other reactive oxygen species. Here we report experimental evidence for an autoxidation mechanism initiated by OH, which is unanticipated and proceeds by OH addition followed by pathways involving Criegee intermediates (CIs). Although CIs are routinely encountered in atmospheric and synthetic organic chemistry, their role in autoxidation is unexpected. Our results suggest that in all likelihood these exotic species play a much more prominent and general role in the chemistry of cells, food, petrochemicals, and the environment beyond what is currently believed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Field experimental evidence shows that self-interest attracts more sunlight

This study examines how messaging approaches in a prosocial intervention can influence not only the effectiveness of the intervention but also, contagion afterward. Our investigation focuses on leveraging two motivations for solar adoption: self-interest and prosocial. Using data from a natural field experiment in 29 municipalities containing 684,000 people, we find that self-interest messaging is twice as effective in inducing solar adoption both during and after the intervention. Adoptions under self-interest messaging have 10% higher net present value, but prosocial messaging increases the likelihood that adopters recommend solar to their friends and neighbors. Income moderates the effectiveness of self-interest messaging, performing much better in high-income communities than low- and moderate-income communities. There was no significant difference across income groups for prosocial messaging. These results provide guidance to policy makers aiming to encourage prosocial behavior across all income groups.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Natural gas shortages during the “coal-to-gas” transition in China have caused a large redistribution of air pollution in winter 2017

The Chinese “coal-to-gas” and “coal-to-electricity” strategies aim at reducing dispersed coal consumption and related air pollution by promoting the use of clean and low-carbon fuels in northern China. Here, we show that on top of meteorological influences, the effective emission mitigation measures achieved an average decrease of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations of ~14% in Beijing and surrounding areas (the “2+26” pilot cities) in winter 2017 compared to the same period of 2016, where the dispersed coal control measures contributed ~60% of the total PM 2.5 reductions. However, the localized air quality improvement was accompanied by a contemporaneous~15% upsurge of PM 2.5 concentrations over large areas in southern China. We find that the pollution transfer that resulted from a shift in emissions was of a high likelihood caused by a natural gas shortage in the south due to the coal-to-gas transition in the north. The overall shortage of natural gas greatly jeopardized the air quality benefits of the coal-to-gas strategy in winter 2017 and reflects structural challenges and potential threats in China’s clean-energy transition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Underpotential lithium plating on graphite anodes caused by temperature heterogeneity

Rechargeability and operational safety of commercial lithium (Li)-ion batteries demand further improvement. Plating of metallic Li on graphite anodes is a critical reason for Li-ion battery capacity decay and short circuit. It is generally believed that Li plating is caused by the slow kinetics of graphite intercalation, but in this paper, we demonstrate that thermodynamics also serves a crucial role. We show that a nonuniform temperature distribution within the battery can make local plating of Li above 0 V vs. Li 0 /Li + (room temperature) thermodynamically favorable. This phenomenon is caused by temperature-dependent shifts of the equilibrium potential of Li 0 /Li + . Supported by simulation results, we confirm the likelihood of this failure mechanism during commercial Li-ion battery operation, including both slow and fast charging conditions. This work furthers the understanding of nonuniform Li plating and will inspire future studies to prolong the cycling lifetime of Li-ion batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Significant impact of forcing uncertainty in a large ensemble of climate model simulations

Forcing due to solar and volcanic variability, on the natural side, and greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, on the anthropogenic side, are the main inputs to climate models. Reliable climate model simulations of past and future climate change depend crucially upon them. Here we analyze large ensembles of simulations using a comprehensive Earth System Model to quantify uncertainties in global climate change attributable to differences in prescribed forcings. The different forcings considered here are those used in the two most recent phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), namely CMIP5 and CMIP6. We show significant differences in simulated global surface air temperature due to volcanic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 19th century and in the early 21st century. The latter arise from small-to-moderate eruptions incorporated in CMIP6 simulations but not in CMIP5 simulations. We also find significant differences in global surface air temperature and Arctic sea ice area due to anthropogenic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 20th century and early 21st century. These differences are as large as those obtained in different versions of an Earth System Model employing identical forcings. In simulations from 2015 to 2100, we find significant differences in the rates of projected global warming arising from CMIP5 and CMIP6 concentration pathways that differ slightly but are equivalent in terms of their nominal radiative forcing levels in 2100. Our results highlight the influence of assumptions about natural and anthropogenic aerosol loadings on carbon budgets, the likelihood of meeting Paris targets, and the equivalence of future forcing scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached

Leveraging artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained on climate model output, we use the spatial pattern of historical temperature observations to predict the time until critical global warming thresholds are reached. Although no observations are used during the training, validation, or testing, the ANNs accurately predict the timing of historical global warming from maps of historical annual temperature. The central estimate for the 1.5 °C global warming threshold is between 2033 and 2035, including a ±1σ range of 2028 to 2039 in the Intermediate (SSP2-4.5) climate forcing scenario, consistent with previous assessments. However, our data-driven approach also suggests a substantial probability of exceeding the 2 °C threshold even in the Low (SSP1-2.6) climate forcing scenario. While there are limitations to our approach, our results suggest a higher likelihood of reaching 2 °C in the Low scenario than indicated in some previous assessments—though the possibility that 2 °C could be avoided is not ruled out. Explainable AI methods reveal that the ANNs focus on particular geographic regions to predict the time until the global threshold is reached. Our framework provides a unique, data-driven approach for quantifying the signal of climate change in historical observations and for constraining the uncertainty in climate model projections. Given the substantial existing evidence of accelerating risks to natural and human systems at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, our results provide further evidence for high-impact climate change over the next three decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A bioenergy-focused versus a reforestation-focused mitigation pathway yields disparate carbon storage and climate responses

Limiting global warming to 2 °C requires urgent action on land-based mitigation. This study evaluates the biogeochemical and biogeophysical implications of two alternative land-based mitigation scenarios that aim to achieve the same radiative forcing. One scenario is primarily driven by bioenergy expansion (SSP226Lu-BIOCROP), while the other involves re/afforestation (SSP126Lu-REFOREST). We find that overall, SSP126Lu-REFOREST is a more efficient strategy for removing CO2 from the atmosphere by 2100, resulting in a net carbon sink of 242 ~ 483 PgC with smaller uncertainties compared to SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, which exhibits a wider range of -78 ~ 621 PgC. However, SSP126Lu-REFOREST leads to a relatively warmer planetary climate than SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, and this relative warming can be intensified in certain re/afforested regions where local climates are not favorable for tree growth. Despite the cooling effect on a global scale, SSP226Lu-BIOCROP reshuffles regional warming hotspots, amplifying summer temperatures in vulnerable tropical regions such as Central Africa and Southeast Asia. Our findings highlight the need for strategic land use planning to identify suitable regions for re/afforestation and bioenergy expansion, thereby improving the likelihood of achieving the intended climate mitigation outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Preliminary Modeling of Chloride Deposition on Spent Nuclear Fuel Canisters in Dry Storage Relevant to Stress Corrosion Cracking

This study presents a method that can be used to gain information relevant to determining the corrosion risk for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) canisters during extended dry storage. Currently, it is known that stainless steel canisters are susceptible to chloride-induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC). However, the rate of CISCC degradation and the likelihood that it could lead to a through-wall crack is unknown. This study uses well-developed computational fluid dynamics and particle-tracking tools and applies them to SNF storage to determine the rate of deposition on canisters. The deposition rate is determined for a vertical canister system and a horizontal canister system, at various decay heat rates with a uniform particle size distribution, ranging from 0.25 to 25 µm, used as an input. In all cases, most of the dust entering the overpack passed through without depositing. Most of what was retained in the overpack was deposited on overpack surfaces (e.g., inlet and outlet vents); only a small fraction was deposited on the canister itself. These results are provided for generalized canister systems with a generalized input; as such, this paper is intended to demonstrate the technique. This study is a part of an ongoing effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Nuclear Energy Office of Spent Fuel Waste Science and Technology, which is tasked with doing research relevant to developing a sound technical basis for ensuring the safe extended storage and subsequent transport of SNF. This work is being presented to demonstrate a potentially useful technique for SNF canister vendors, utilities, regulators, and stakeholders to utilize and further develop for their own designs and site-specific studies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of overlapping count data

Counts of a specific characteristic were obtained within regions defined on an object that was manufactured in a proprietary setting. The count regions were altered during production and resulted in misaligned or overlapping count data. A closed-formula maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the new region means is derived using all of the available count data and an independent Poisson model. The MLE is shown to be preferable to estimators constructed using generalized linear models for the overlapping data setting. This closed-form estimator extends to over-dispersed overlapping count data as the quasi-MLE and also performs well with correlated overlapping count data. Standard errors for the estimator are approximated and are validated with a simulation study. Additionally, the methods are extended to overlapping multinomial data. Illustrative examples of the methods are provided throughout the paper and are reproducible with the supplemental R code. Additionally, proofs of the paper’s results are also included in the supplemental material.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tensor decompositions for count data that leverage stochastic and deterministic optimization

There is growing interest to extend low-rank matrix decompositions to multi-way arrays, or tensors. One fundamental low-rank tensor decomposition is the canonical polyadic decomposition (CPD). The challenge of fitting a low-rank, nonnegative CPD model to Poisson-distributed count data is of particular interest. Several popular algorithms use local search methods to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the Poisson CPD model. Here, this work presents two new algorithms that extend state-of-the-art local methods for Poisson CPD. Hybrid GCP-CPAPR combines Generalized Canonical Decomposition (GCP) with stochastic optimization and CP Alternating Poisson Regression (CPAPR), a deterministic algorithm, to increase the probability of converging to the MLE over either method used alone. Restarted CPAPR with SVDrop uses a heuristic based on the singular values of the CPD model unfoldings to identify convergence toward optimizers that are not the MLE and restarts within the feasible domain of the optimization problem, thus reducing overall computational cost when using a multi-start strategy. We provide empirical evidence that indicates our approaches outperform existing methods with respect to converging to the Poisson CPD MLE.

CPAPR↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial and unobserved heterogeneity in consumer preferences for adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles: A Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach

The transition to low carbon vehicles known as alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) is well underway. This transition has been motivated partly by consumer demand and partly by legislation such as the Zero Emission Vehicle mandate, which requires manufacturers to sell a certain percentage of their vehicles as AFVs. While the long-term adoption of AFVs (specifically, electric and hybrids) may take several years, there is a need to understand consumer preferences for AFV adoption and the pathways of AFV adoption from a national perspective. Therefore, this study sought to provide information about consumer preferences regarding AFV ownership while considering spatial and unobserved heterogeneity in consumer preferences, which can potentially impact societal transition to low carbon fueled vehicles. The 2017 National Household Travel Survey was used to calibrate Bayesian logit and hierarchical models. Here, the findings of these models reveal that higher gasoline prices contribute toward the adoption of battery electric vehicles. The results also reveal that the perceived disadvantages of AFVs for long commutes are the key barrier in wider adoption of AFVs. Interestingly, frequent use of the internet by consumers revealed a higher likelihood for purchase of hybrid vehicles. Furthermore, West Coast residents are observed to be a large portion of the early adopters and are more likely to purchase hybrids as compared to battery electric vehicles. The knowledge generated by this study has implications for making better informed decisions about AFV adoption and developing incentives to promote wider adoption of AFVs by overcoming their perceived disadvantages.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterization of a novel HIV-1 circulating recombinant form, CRF91_cpx, comprising CRF02_AG, G, J, and U, mostly among men who have sex with men

Prospective molecular studies of HIV-1 pol region (2253–5250 in HXB2 genome) sequences from sequenced samples of 269 HIV-1-infected patients in Cyprus (2017–2021) revealed a transmission cluster of 14 unknown HIV-1 recombinants that were not classified as previously established CRFs. The earliest recombinant was collected in September 2017, and the transmission cluster continued to grow until November 2020. Near full-length HIV-1 genome sequences of the 11 of the 14 recombinants were successfully obtained (790–8795 in HXB2 genome) and aligned against a reference dataset of HIV-1 subtypes and CRFs. We employed MEGAX for maximum-likelihood tree construction (GTR model, 1000 bootstrap replicates), Cluster-Picker for phylogenetic clustering analysis (genetic distance ≤0.045, bootstrap support value ≥70%), and REGA-3.0 for subtype determination. Bootscan and similarity plot analyses (sliding window of 400 nucleotides overlapped by 40 nucleotides) were conducted using SimPlot-v3.5.1, and subregion confirmatory neighbour-joining tree analyses were conducted using MEGAX (Kimura two-parameter model, 1000 bootstrap replicates, ≥70% bootstrap-support value). Exclusive clustering of the HIV-1 recombinants revealed their uniqueness. The recombination analyses illustrated the same unique mosaic pattern with six putative intersubtype recombination breakpoints, seven fragments of subtypes CRF02_AG, G, J and an unclassified fragment. We conclusively characterized the mosaic structure of the novel HIV-1 CRF, named CRF91_cpx, by the Los Alamos HIV Sequence Database. Additionally, we identified a URF of CRF91_cpx with two additional recombination sites, generated by a recombination event between subtype B and CRF91_cpx. Since the identification of CRF91_cpx, two additional patient samples have been entered into the CRF91_cpx transmission cluster, demonstrating active growth.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗