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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Physics-Guided Deep Learning for Complex System Health Management and Decision Making

The landscape of complex engineered systems is rapidly evolving, from smart manufacturing facilities to next-generation transportation vehicles. As these systems become increasingly sophisticated and interconnected, the need for advanced health management systems grows ever more critical. These systems must go beyond simple monitoring, actively predicting potential failures before they occur. This paradigm shift from fixed maintenance schedules to condition-based predictions is key to optimizing system performance, enhancing safety, and paving the way for autonomous decision-making across various industries. Whether in industrial processes, energy systems, or advanced transportation, the ability to anticipate and prevent failures is becoming a cornerstone of operational excellence. To accurately predict the future health of any complex system, knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions is essential. Recent advancements in data-driven algorithms have generated growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. However, the limitations of pure data-driven methods, particularly in industries where data acquisition is costly and limited, have become apparent. This has led to a focus on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, mitigating the drawbacks of both approaches while emphasizing their respective advantages. This research proposes a novel framework for integrating physics-based performance models with deep learning algorithms for the prognostics of complex safety-critical systems. In this approach, physics-based models serve as a blueprint, capturing fundamental system behaviors, while deep learning algorithms, leveraging real-world sensor data, fill in gaps and identify subtle patterns indicative of potential problems. This hybrid methodology, utilizing techniques such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), offers a powerful solution for predicting system health. By fusing domain knowledge with data-driven insights, this approach promises more accurate, adaptable, and reliable models for health prediction. The resulting framework is versatile, applicable across various sectors including aerospace, manufacturing, and energy systems, ultimately contributing to safer, more efficient operations in our increasingly complex technological landscape.

Diagnostics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modular Linear Thermoviscoelastic Model

Time-dependent, viscoelastic responses of materials like polymers and glasses have long been studied. As such, a variety of models have been put forth to describe the behavior including simple rheological models (e.g. Maxwell, Kelvin), linear "fading memory" theories, and hereditary integral based linear thermal viscoelastic approaches as well as more recent nonlinear theories that are either integral, fictive temperature, or differential internal state variable based. The current work details a new LINEAR_THERMOVISCOELASTIC model that has been added to LAME. This formulation represents a viscoelastic theory that neglects some of the phenomenological details of the PEC/SPEC models in favor of efficiency and simplicity. Furthermore, this new model is a first step towards developing "modular" viscoelastic capabilities akin to those available with hardening descriptions for plasticity models in LAME. Specifically, multiple different (including user-defined) shift-factor forms are implemented with each being easily selected via parameter specification rather than requiring distinct material models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2010

Physics-Based Methods of Failure Analysis and Diagnostics in Human Space Flight

The Integrated Health Management (IHM) for the future aerospace systems requires to interface models of multiple subsystems in an efficient and accurate information environment at the earlier stages of system design. The complexity of modern aeronautic and aircraft systems (including e.g. the power distribution, flight control, solid and liquid motors) dictates employment of hybrid models and high-level reasoners for analysing mixed continuous and discrete information flow involving multiple modes of operation in uncertain environments, unknown state variables, heterogeneous software and hardware components. To provide the information link between key design/performance parameters and high-level reasoners we rely on development of multi-physics performance models, distributed sensors networks, and fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) technologies in close collaboration with system designers. The main challenges of our research are related to the in-flight assessment of the structural stability, engine performance, and trajectory control. The main goal is to develop an intelligent IHM that not only enhances components and system reliability, but also provides a post-flight feedback helping to optimize design of the next generation of aerospace systems. Our efforts are concentrated on several directions of the research. One of the key components of our strategy is an innovative approach to the diagnostics/prognostics based on the real time dynamical inference (DI) technologies extended to encompass hybrid systems with hidden state trajectories. The major investments are into the multiphysics performance modelling that provides an access of the FD&P technologies to the main performance parameters of e.g. solid and liquid rocket motors and composite materials of the nozzle and case. Some of the recent results of our research are discussed in this chapter. We begin by introducing the problem of dynamical inference of stochastic nonlinear models and reviewing earlier results. Next, we present our analytical approach to the solution of this problem based on the path integral formulation. The resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model parameters, provides optimal compensation for the effects of dynamical noise, and is robust for a broad range of dynamical models. In the following Section the strengths of the algorithm are illustrated illustrated by inferring the parameters of the stochastic Lorenz system and comparing the results with those of earlier research. Next, we discuss a number of recent results in application to the development of the IHM for aerospace system. Firstly, we apply dynamical inference approach to a solution of classical three tank problems with mixed unknown continuous and binary parameters. The problem is considered in the context of ground support system for filling fuel tanks of liquid rocket motors. It is shown that the DI algorithm is well suited for successful solution of a hybrid version of this benchmark problem even in the presence of additional periodic and stochastic perturbation of unknown strength. Secondly, we illustrate our approach by its application to an analysis of the nozzle fault in a solid rocket motor (SRM). The internal ballistics of the SRM is modelled as a set of one-dimensional partial differential equations coupled to the dynamics of the propellant regression. In this example we are specifically focussed on the inference of discrete and continuous parameters of the nozzle blocking fault and on the possibility of an application of the DI algorithm to reducing the probability of "misses" of an on-board FD&P for SRM. In the next section re-contact problem caused by first stage/upper stage separation failure is discussed. The reaction forces imposed on the nozzle of the upper stage during the re-contact and their connection to the nozzle damage and to the thrust vector control (TVC) signal are obtained. It is shown that transient impact induced torquean be modelled as a response of an effective damped oscillator. A possible application of the DI algorithm to the inference of damage parameters and predicting fault dynamics ahead of time using the actuator signal is discussed. Finally, we formulate Bayesian inferential framework for development of the IHM system for in-flight structural health monitoring (SHM) of composite materials. We consider the signal generated by piezoelectric actuator mounted on composite structure generating elastic waves in it. The signal received by the sensor is than compared with the baseline signal. The possibility of damage inference is discussed in the context of development of the SHM.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Wake shield

Progress on the modeling of the flow field around a wake shield using a recently obtained code based on the Monte Carlo method is discussed. The direct simulation Monte Carlo method is a method for solving the Boltzman Equation using an approximation to the collision integral term. The collision integrand is evaluated for randomly selected values of its arguments and the summation will approach the integral for large enough samples. The collision effects may be modeled for either hard sphere or various power law potentials. The convective side of the Boltzman equation is approximated over a time step using a simple trajectory calculation of molecules as they travel through the domain of interest.

Bannister, Tommy↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Integrated Computational Materials Engineering for Quantifying Performance Impacts of Microstructure and Defect Interactions in Powder Bed Fusion Parts

Powder bed fusion (PBF) additive manufacturing (AM) enables the creation of parts with complexity and functionality levels that were previously impossible with traditional manufacturing methods. By modifying the laser power, hatch spacing, or the numerous other processing parameters, the PBF process supports the production of a wide set of materials and geometries. However, that same process parameter design flexibility causes the process-design space of PBF to be massive and expensive to explore experimentally. Another challenge is quality variation across a build. As a part is being built, geometric variance between locations, such as at a thin-wall section vs. the bulk material, may cause the specified processing parameters to no longer be acceptable for producing defect-free printing. Furthermore, if the processing parameters deviate during the print process, it is difficult to assess if the part will still perform satisfactorily. Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) provides a way to understand and address these various challenges. This talk will present advancements in process-structure simulations of PBF at NASA Langley Research Center. The ability to simulate grain-scale PBF microstructures using the Physically Based Monte Carlo method will be demonstrated and compared to experimental measurements. Techniques for simulating three-dimensional lack-of-fusion and keyhole porosity defects based on the specific processing conditions and approaches for integrating the two porosity prediction techniques alongside the computational microstructure evolution models will be shown. Finally, the integration of simulated PBF microstructures, embedded process defects, and crystal plasticity finite element models to elucidate the interaction of porosity and microstructure on micromechanical fields will be demonstrated. These integrated techniques demonstrate an example of using ICME to relate processing to performance for PBF AM materials. With continued maturity, it is hoped that such ICME approaches will lead to next-generation computational-materials supported qualification and certification of AM parts.

Additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2022

A research agenda for nonvascular photoautotrophs under climate change

Nonvascular photoautotrophs (NVP), including bryophytes, lichens, terrestrial algae, and cyanobacteria, are increasingly recognized as being essential to ecosystem functioning in many regions of the world. Current research suggests that climate change may pose a substantial threat to NVP, but the extent to which this will affect the associated ecosystem functions and services is highly uncertain. Here, we propose a research agenda to address this urgent question, focusing on physiological and ecological processes that link NVP to ecosystem functions while also taking into account the substantial taxonomic diversity across multiple ecosystem types. Accordingly, we developed a new categorization scheme, based on microclimatic gradients, which simplifies the high physiological and morphological diversity of NVP and world-wide distribution with respect to several broad habitat types. We found that habitat-specific ecosystem functions of NVP will likely be substantially affected by climate change, and more quantitative process understanding is required on (1) potential for acclimation, (2) response to elevated CO 2 , (3) role of the microbiome, and (4) feedback to (micro)climate. We suggest an integrative approach of innovative, multimethod laboratory and field experiments and ecophysiological modelling, for which sustained scientific collaboration on NVP research will be essential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Variable renewable energy deployment in low-emission scenarios: The role of technology cost and value

While rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, namely wind and solar PV, is often projected in 2C pathways generated by integrated assessment models, there is a wide range in projected VRE deployment by mid-century. Such differences could be the result of differences in assumptions about future technology costs and/or differences in model approaches for capturing other aspects of technology competitiveness. Here we introduce a consistent competitiveness metric, profitability-adjusted levelized cost of electricity (or PLCOE), to an integrated assessment model (EPPA) to evaluate the representation of technology competition, including VRE, in low-emission scenarios. We show that representing the value of technology (alongside cost) may significantly impact VRE deployment relative to scenarios without such an adjustment. In addition, we show that varying VRE costs by about 35% in 2050 results in differences in VRE deployment that span much of the range in outcomes (over the same period) observed in likely 2C scenarios assessed by the IPCC, suggesting that both cost and value are key drivers of VRE deployment in such scenarios. Given the central role that VRE technologies play in the electricity mix across most scenarios, we also find that alternative cost assumptions for VRE technologies can lead to changes in electricity prices, the associated demand for electricity, and total final and primary energy consumption. However, the demand for fuels other than electricity is relatively insensitive to VRE assumptions in the 2C scenarios considered here.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2007

Recent NASA Research on Aerodynamic Modeling of Post-Stall and Spin Dynamics of Large Transport Airplanes

A simulation study was conducted to investigate aerodynamic modeling methods for prediction of post-stall flight dynamics of large transport airplanes. The research approach involved integrating dynamic wind tunnel data from rotary balance and forced oscillation testing with static wind tunnel data to predict aerodynamic forces and moments during highly dynamic departure and spin motions. Several state-of-the-art aerodynamic modeling methods were evaluated and predicted flight dynamics using these various approaches were compared. Results showed the different modeling methods had varying effects on the predicted flight dynamics and the differences were most significant during uncoordinated maneuvers. Preliminary wind tunnel validation data indicated the potential of the various methods for predicting steady spin motions.

Murch, Austin M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploration Medical Capability Systems Engineering Overview and Update

Long duration Lunar and Martian missions will change the way NASA currently practices medicine. The missions will require more autonomous capability compared to current low Earth orbit operations. For the medical system, lack of consumable resupply, evacuation opportunities, and real-time ground support are key drivers toward greater autonomy. Recognition of the limited mission and vehicle resources available to carry out exploration missions motivates the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element’s approach to enabling the necessary autonomy. The ExMC Systems Engineering (SE) team’s mission is to “Define, develop, validate, and manage the technical system design needed to implement exploration medical capabilities for Mars and test the design in a progression of proving grounds.” The Element’s work must integrate with the overall exploration mission and vehicle design efforts to successfully provide exploration medical capabilities. ExMC is using Model-Based System Engineering (MBSE) to accomplish its integrative goals. The MBSE approach to medical system design offers a paradigm shift toward greater integration between the vehicle and the medical system, and directly supports the transition of Earth-reliant ISS operations to the Earth-independent operations envisioned for Mars. This talk will provide a high-level overview of what the ExMC SE team has accomplished since the last IWS and what they are focusing on for the upcoming year.

Kerry McGuire↗

DOE OSTI2024

SDYN-GANs: Adversarial learning methods for multistep generative models for general order stochastic dynamics

We introduce adversarial learning methods for data-driven generative modeling of dynamics of nth-order stochastic systems. Our approach builds on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with generative model classes based on stable m-step stochastic numerical integrators. From observations of trajectory samples, we introduce methods for learning long-time predictors and stable representations of the dynamics. Our approaches use discriminators based on Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), training protocols using both conditional and marginal distributions, and methods for learning dynamic responses over different time-scales. We show how our approaches can be used for modeling physical systems to learn force-laws, damping coefficients, and noise-related parameters. Our adversarial learning approaches provide methods for obtaining stable generative models for dynamic tasks including long-time prediction and developing simulations for stochastic systems.

• Artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning ↗

NASA NTRS1997

Revised Simulation Model of the Control System, Displays, and Propulsion System for a ASTOVL Lift Fan Aircraft

This report describes revisions to a simulation model that was developed for use in piloted evaluations of takeoff, transition, hover, and landing characteristics of an advanced short takeoff and vertical landing lift fan fighter aircraft. These revisions have been made to the flight/propulsion control system, head-up display, and propulsion system to reflect recent flight and simulation experience with short takeoff and vertical landing operations. They include nonlinear inverse control laws in all axes (eliminating earlier versions with state rate feedback), throttle scaling laws for flightpath and thrust command, control selector commands apportioned based on relative effectiveness of the individual controls, lateral guidance algorithms that provide more flexibility for terminal area operations, and a simpler representation of the propulsion system. The model includes modes tailored to the phases of the aircraft's operation, with several response types which are coupled to the aircraft's aerodynamic and propulsion system effectors through a control selector tailored to the propulsion system. Head-up display modes for approach and hover are integrated with the corresponding control modes. Propulsion system components modeled include a remote lift fan and a lift-cruise engine. Their static performance and dynamic responses are represented by the model. A separate report describes the subsonic, power-off aerodynamics and jet induced aerodynamics in hover and forward flight, including ground effects.

Franklin, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Solution of Ordinary Differential Equations in Gradient-Based Multidisciplinary Design Optimization

A gradient-based approach to multidisciplinary design optimization enables efficient scalability to large numbers of design variables. However, the need for derivatives causes difficulties when integrating ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in models. To simplify this, we propose the use of the general linear methods framework, which unifies all Runge-Kutta and linear multistep methods. This approach enables rapid implementation of integration methods without the need to differentiate each one, even in a gradient-based optimization context. We also develop a new parallel time integration algorithm that enables vectorization across time steps. We present a set of benchmarking results using a stiff ODE, a non-stiff nonlinear ODE, and an orbital dynamics ODE, and compare integration methods. In a modular gradient-based multidisciplinary design optimization context, we find that the new parallel time integration algorithm with high-order implicit methods, especially Gauss-Legendre collocation, is the best choice for a broad range of problems.

Hwang, John T.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reduced-Order CFD Modeling to Support Waste Loading Optimization in Hanford WTP Vitrification

The U.S. DOE Hanford Site stores over 56 million gallons of radioactive liquid tank waste that must be treated and immobilized for long-term disposal The Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) will vitrify this waste by feeding it into Joule-heated melters, where it is incorporated into a stable borosilicate glass Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of glass melters can provide insight into the maximum achievable waste loading under varying melter operating conditions Fully resolved VOF multiphase simulations were used as the reference model to capture bubble-driven convection in the melter, including bubble formation, rise behavior, and induced glass melt circulation Effective bubble column diameter and rise velocity were extracted from the resolved simulations, compared with empirical correlations, and refit across relevant viscosity and gas flow rate conditions Explicit gas–liquid interface tracking was replaced with a single-phase momentum source term model, enabling faster steady-state CFD simulations while preserving the dominant hydrodynamic effects of bubbling New empirical correlations were developed for effective bubble column diameter and bubble rise velocity by fitting resolved simulation data across expected melter viscosity and gas flow rate ranges, providing improved inputs for the momentum source term model compared with existing literature correlations The momentum source term model reduced fluid-domain mesh size by 89% and achieved an 8.4× computational speedup relative to resolved bubbling simulations The validated momentum source term approach enables prediction of process-relevant heat transfer behavior in the integrated melter model, including heat transfer from the molten glass to the cold cap, plenum, refractory walls, and surrounding structural regions under varying melter operating conditions

12 - MGMT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTE↗

NASA NTRS2009

An Overview of Prognosis Health Management Research at Glenn Research Center for Gas Turbine Engine Structures With Special Emphasis on Deformation and Damage Modeling

Herein a general, multimechanism, physics-based viscoelastoplastic model is presented in the context of an integrated diagnosis and prognosis methodology which is proposed for structural health monitoring, with particular applicability to gas turbine engine structures. In this methodology, diagnostics and prognostics will be linked through state awareness variable(s). Key technologies which comprise the proposed integrated approach include (1) diagnostic/detection methodology, (2) prognosis/lifing methodology, (3) diagnostic/prognosis linkage, (4) experimental validation, and (5) material data information management system. A specific prognosis lifing methodology, experimental characterization and validation and data information management are the focal point of current activities being pursued within this integrated approach. The prognostic lifing methodology is based on an advanced multimechanism viscoelastoplastic model which accounts for both stiffness and/or strength reduction damage variables. Methods to characterize both the reversible and irreversible portions of the model are discussed. Once the multiscale model is validated the intent is to link it to appropriate diagnostic methods to provide a full-featured structural health monitoring system.

Arnold, Steven M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

An Overview of Prognosis Health Management Research at Glenn Research Center for Gas Turbine Engine Structures With Special Emphasis on Deformation and Damage Modeling

Arnold, Steven M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advanced Computing, Data Science, and Artificial Intelligence Research Opportunities for Energy-Focused Transportation Science

The Energy Efficient Mobility Systems (EEMS) technology landscape is complex and rapidly evolving, which provides both tremendous opportunities and formidable challenges. Significant alterations to the mobility landscape are underway due to the advent of vehicle and infrastructure connectivity, autonomous driving, and rapid passenger- and freight-vehicle electrification. Advanced computing will play an increasingly important role in enabling the EEMS program to understand and identify the most important levers to improve the energy productivity of future integrated mobility systems. It is also driving new approaches to mobility and the research to unlock an affordable, efficient, safe, and accessible transportation future. Driving much of this change is the collection, analysis, and strategic use of massive amounts of diverse, complex data from infrastructure and vehicles with on-board sensors and data storage and transmission capabilities. Diverse and representative data are key to implementing approaches to maximize mobility energy productivity. While high-fidelity modeling of integrated transportation networks has strengthened our understanding of dynamic movement and behavior patterns, existing tools must be expanded beyond their current focus. This work necessitates data infrastructure investments (e.g., secure-streaming data platforms driven by ubiquitous sensors and video analytics) as well as investments in critical capabilities for large-scale automated analysis and organization using modern machine learning, statistics, and artificial intelligence. Other chief needs include agile, large-scale storage that can be quickly searched and queried for relevant data to support validation and model development, data-sharing agreements, and formatting standards for key data types. The future of public transit must be explored in greater detail, research must inform design, and opportunities must be identified for improving the mobility productivity of public transit in both urban and rural America.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A combined kinetic Monte Carlo and phase field approach to model thermally activated dislocation motion

In this work, a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) scheme is integrated into a phase field dislocation dynamics (PFDD) model to account for thermal activation. While the implementation is general and could be applied to many different thermally activated processes, we apply the model to simulate a dislocation transmitting through an interface. Two cases are analyzed: a dislocation transmitting through a strong interface, and a dislocation transmitting through a more realistic grain boundary in tungsten. In conclusion, results and trends for both cases are discussed in detail, and ultimately show that the combined KMC-PFDD algorithm is effective in capturing thermally activated dislocation processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integration of graphical approaches into optimization-based design of multistage liquid extraction

We propose two optimization models for designing two liquid extraction systems: simple multistage liquid extractors and extractors with extract reflux. Both models are motivated by the concepts of the modified McCabe-Thiele graphical method for multistage extractor design. The operating and equilibrium curves in the McCabe-Thiele method are represented by material balances and piece-wise linearized thermodynamics properties. The use of piece-wise approximations improves computational tractability of both optimization models. In addition, we consider some extensions such as dilute systems, insoluble solvents, and non-ideal stages. In conclusion, the applicability of the proposed models is demonstrated with four illustrative examples.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗