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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Shape and Stress Sensing of Multilayered Composite and Sandwich Structures Using an Inverse Finite Element Method

The marked increase in the use of composite and sandwich material systems in aerospace, civil, and marine structures leads to the need for integrated Structural Health Management systems. A key capability to enable such systems is the real-time reconstruction of structural deformations, stresses, and failure criteria that are inferred from in-situ, discrete-location strain measurements. This technology is commonly referred to as shape- and stress-sensing. Presented herein is a computationally efficient shape- and stress-sensing methodology that is ideally suited for applications to laminated composite and sandwich structures. The new approach employs the inverse Finite Element Method (iFEM) as a general framework and the Refined Zigzag Theory (RZT) as the underlying plate theory. A three-node inverse plate finite element is formulated. The element formulation enables robust and efficient modeling of plate structures instrumented with strain sensors that have arbitrary positions. The methodology leads to a set of linear algebraic equations that are solved efficiently for the unknown nodal displacements. These displacements are then used at the finite element level to compute full-field strains, stresses, and failure criteria that are in turn used to assess structural integrity. Numerical results for multilayered, highly heterogeneous laminates demonstrate the unique capability of this new formulation for shape- and stress-sensing.

Cerracchio, Priscilla↗
DOE OSTI2023

Preliminary Feasibility of Printing, Microstructure Analysis and Mechanical Performance of a Down Selected Ni Alloy

This report is submitted as completion of a Milestone 3 deliverable under work package ORNL CT-23OR1304051 in support of the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program. The AMMT program is aiming at the faster incorporation of new materials and manufacturing technologies into complex nuclear-related systems. An integrated approach, combining advanced characterization, high-throughput and accelerated testing, modeling and simulation including machine learning and artificial intelligence will be employed. While 316H (Fe-16-18Cr-10-14Ni-2-3Mo-0.04-0.1C) has been identified as a key alloy to be integrated into the AMMT accelerated alloy qualification approach due its relevance for many current and future nuclear energy reactors, many other alloys could be considered for the advanced fabrication of innovate high-performance nuclear components. ANL, INL, ORNL and PNNL are collaborating on identifying the most promising alloy candidates relevant for the AMMT program. A selection criteria matrix was established to evaluate the alloys considering their relative importance and technological readiness levels for nuclear energy applications, with a focus on laser powder bed fusion (LPBF). Due to the broad range of potential candidate alloys, ORNL and INL focused on Ni-based alloys, while ANL and PNNL mainly evaluated Fe-based alloys. PNNL previously published materials scorecards reports on several key alloys and this report is providing a broader overview of Ni-based candidate alloys, expending beyond alloys well-known to the nuclear community. Of particular interest are alloys that are currently commercially available in powder form due to the growing demand from other industries that have invested heavily in additive manufacturing. Among these alloys, Haynes 282 (Fe-20Cr-20Co-8Mo) was selected due to its superior strength at high temperature compared to the code-qualified alloy 617 (Ni-20-24Cr-10-15Co-8-10Mo). To assess the integration of this new alloy into the AMMT digital manufacturing framework, we performed the rapid optimization of alloy 282 printing parameters on a Renishaw 250 machine, the fabrication of sufficient materials for extensive characterization and mechanical testing both at ORNL and INL, and added the printing data into the digital platform via the Peregrine software. A detailed analysis of the LPBF 718 alloy was also conducted, with creep specimens being tested at 600-650°C and characterized by advanced electron microscopy. The alloy superior mechanical strength and great printability associated with the extensive database that has already been generated highlight the promising potential of LPBF 718 as a candidate alloy for the AMMT program. INL, ANL and PNNL have generated similar reports and all the information will be compiled into a final M2 milestone report to provide the AMMT leadership team with clear recommendations on the down selection of reactor materials, as well as establish a roadmap for the qualification of these selected alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating dermal contact soil exposure for amphibians

Abstract Chemical exposure estimation through the dermal route is an underemphasized area of ecological risk assessment for terrestrial animals. Currently, there are efforts to create exposure models to estimate doses from this pathway for use in ecological risk assessment. One significant limitation has been insufficient published data to characterize exposure and to support the selection and parameterization of appropriate models, particularly for amphibians in terrestrial habitats. Recent publications measuring pesticide doses to terrestrial‐phase amphibians have begun to rectify this situation. We collated and summarized available measurements of terrestrial amphibian dermal exposure to pesticides from 11 studies in which researchers measured tissue concentrations associated with known pesticide experimental application rates. This data set included tissue concentrations in 11 amphibian species and 14 different pesticides. We then compared the results of two screening exposure models that differed based on surface area scaling approaches as a function of body weight (one based on birds as surrogates for amphibians and another amphibian‐specific) to the measured tissue residue concentrations. We define a false‐negative rate for each screening model as the proportion of amphibians for which the predicted concentration is less than the observed concentration (i.e., underestimate), contrary to the intent of screening models, which are intended to have a bias for higher exposure concentrations. The screening model that uses birds as surrogates did not have any instances where estimated expected avian doses were less than measured amphibian body burdens. When using the amphibian‐specific exposure model that corrected for differences between avian and amphibian surface area, measured concentrations were greater than model estimates for 11.3% of the 1158 comparisons. The database of measured pesticide concentrations in terrestrial amphibians is provided for use in calculating bioconcentration factors and for future amphibian dermal exposure model development. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:9–16. © 2022 SETAC. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

A U.S.-China coal power transition and the global 1.5 °C pathway

As the world seeks to increase ambition rapidly to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, joint leadership from the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters—the United States (U.S.) and China—will be critical to deliver significant emissions reductions from their own countries as well as to catalyze increased international action. After a period of uncertainty in international climate policy, these countries now both have current leadership that supports ambitious climate action. In this context, a feasible, high-impact, and potentially globally catalytic agreement by the U.S. and China to transition away from coal to clean energy would be a major contribution toward this global effort. We undertake a plant-by-plant assessment in the power sector to identify practical coal retirement pathways for each country that are in line with national priorities and the global 1.5 °C target. Our plant-by-plant analysis shows that the 1.5 °C-compatible pathways may result in an average retirement age of 47 years for the U.S. coal plants and 22 years for Chinese coal plants, raising important questions of how to compare broader economic, employment, and social impacts. We also demonstrate that such pathways would also lead to significant emissions reductions, lowering overall global energy-related CO 2 emissions by about 9% in 2030 relative to 2020. A catalytic effect from the possibility of other countries taking compatible actions is estimated to reduce global emissions by 5.1 Gt CO 2 in 2030 and by 10.1 Gt CO 2 in 2045.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2016

Decision Analysis Methods Used to Make Appropriate Investments in Human Exploration Capabilities and Technologies

NASA is transforming human spaceflight. The Agency is shifting from an exploration-based program with human activities in low Earth orbit (LEO) and targeted robotic missions in deep space to a more sustainable and integrated pioneering approach. Through pioneering, NASA seeks to address national goals to develop the capacity for people to work, learn, operate, live, and thrive safely beyond Earth for extended periods of time. However, pioneering space involves daunting technical challenges of transportation, maintaining health, and enabling crew productivity for long durations in remote, hostile, and alien environments. Prudent investments in capability and technology developments, based on mission need, are critical for enabling a campaign of human exploration missions. There are a wide variety of capabilities and technologies that could enable these missions, so it is a major challenge for NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) to make knowledgeable portfolio decisions. It is critical for this pioneering initiative that these investment decisions are informed with a prioritization process that is robust and defensible. It is NASA's role to invest in targeted technologies and capabilities that would enable exploration missions even though specific requirements have not been identified. To inform these investments decisions, NASA's HEOMD has supported a variety of analysis activities that prioritize capabilities and technologies. These activities are often based on input from subject matter experts within the NASA community who understand the technical challenges of enabling human exploration missions. This paper will review a variety of processes and methods that NASA has used to prioritize and rank capabilities and technologies applicable to human space exploration. The paper will show the similarities in the various processes and showcase instances were customer specified priorities force modifications to the process. Specifically, this paper will describe the processes that the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) Technology Assessment and Integration Team (TAIT) has used for several years and how those processes have been customized to meet customer needs while staying robust and defensible. This paper will show how HEOMD uses these analyses results to assist with making informed portfolio investment decisions. The paper will also highlight which human exploration capabilities and technologies typically rank high regardless of the specific design reference mission. The paper will conclude by describing future capability and technology ranking activities that will continue o leverage subject matter experts (SME) input while also incorporating more model-based analysis.

Williams-Byrd, Julie↗
DOE OSTI2020

Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals

Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in the achievement of stringent climate-change mitigation targets requiring the application of negative emissions technology. Using a multi-model framework, we assess the effects of high bioenergy demand on global food production, food security, and competition for agricultural land. Various scenarios simulate global bioenergy demands of 100, 200, 300, and 400 exajoules (EJ) by 2100, with and without a carbon price. Six global energy-economy-agriculture models contribute to this study, with different methodologies and technologies used for bioenergy supply and greenhouse-gas mitigation options for agriculture. We find that the large-scale use of bioenergy, if not implemented properly, would raise food prices and increase the number of people at risk of hunger in many areas of the world. For example, an increase in global bioenergy demand from 200 to 300 EJ causes a -11% to +40% change in food crop prices and decreases food consumption from -45 to -2 kcal person -1 day -1 , leading to an additional 0 to 25 million people at risk of hunger compared with the case of no bioenergy demand (90th percentile range across models). This risk does not rule out the intensive use of bioenergy but shows the importance of its careful implementation, potentially including regulations that protect cropland for food production or for the use of bioenergy feedstock on land that is not competitive with food production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application and Certification of Comparative Vacuum Monitoring Sensors for Structural Health Monitoring of 737 Wing Box Fittings

Multi-site fatigue damage, hidden cracks in hard-to-reach locations, disbonded joints, erosion, impact, and corrosion are among the major flaws encountered in today's extensive fleet of aging aircraft and space vehicles. The use of in-situ sensors for real-time health monitoring of aircraft structures are a viable option to overcome inspection impediments stemming from accessibility limitations, complex geometries, and the location and depth of hidden damage. Reliable, structural health monitoring systems can automatically process data, assess structural condition, and signal the need for human intervention. Prevention of unexpected flaw growth and structural failure can be improved if on-board health monitoring systems are used to continuously assess structural integrity. Such systems are able to detect incipient damage before catastrophic failures occurs. Condition-based maintenance practices could be substituted for the current time-based maintenance approach. Other advantages of on-board distributed sensor systems are that they can eliminate costly, and potentially damaging, disassembly, improve sensitivity by producing optimum placement of sensors and decrease maintenance costs by eliminating more time- consuming manual inspections. This report presents a Sandia Labs-aviation industry effort to move SHM into routine use for aircraft maintenance. This program addressed formal SHM technology validation and certification issues so that the full spectrum of concerns, including design, deployment, performance and certification were appropriately considered. The Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) at Sandia Labs, in conjunction with Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Structural Monitoring Systems Ltd., Anodyne Electronics Manufacturing Corp. and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) carried out a certification program to formally introduce Comparative Vacuum Monitoring (CVM) as a structural health monitoring solution to a specific aircraft wing box application. Validation tasks were designed to address the SHM equipment, the health monitoring task, the resolution required, the sensor interrogation procedures, the conditions under which the monitoring will occur, the potential inspector population, adoption of CVM into an airline maintenance program and the document revisions necessary to allow for routine use of CVM as an alternate means of performing periodic structural inspects. To carry out the validation process, knowledge of aircraft maintenance practices was coupled with an unbiased, independent evaluation. Sandia Labs designed, implemented, and analyzed the results from a focused and statistically-relevant experimental effort to quantify the reliability of the CVM system applied to the Boeing 737 Wing Box fitting application. All factors that affect SHM sensitivity were included in this program: flaw size, shape, orientation and location relative to the sensors, as well as operational and environmental variables. Statistical methods were applied to performance data to derive Probability of Detection (POD) values for CVM sensors in a manner that agrees with current nondestructive inspection (NDI) validation requirements and also is acceptable to both the aviation industry and regulatory bodies. This report presents the use of several different statistical methods, some of them adapted from NDI performance assessments and some proposed to address the unique nature of damage detection via SHM systems, and discusses how they can converge to produce a confident quantification of SHM performance An important element in developing SHM validation processes is a clear understanding of the regulatory measures needed to adopt SHM solutions along with the knowledge of the structural and maintenance characteristics that may impact the operational performance of an SHM system. This report describes the major elements of an SHM validation approach and differentiates the SHM elements from those found in NDI validation. The activities conducted in this program demonstrated the feasibility of routine SHM usage in general and CVM in particular for the application selected. They also helped establish an optimum OEM-airline-regulator process and determined how to safely adopt SHM solutions. This formal SHM validation will allow aircraft manufacturers and airlines to confidently make informed decisions about the proper utilization of CVM technology. It will also streamline the regulatory actions and formal certification measures needed to assure the safe application of SHM solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterization of ambient polychlorinated biphenyl background conditions in surface waters of the Pajarito Plateau, New Mexico

Abstract This study presents the development of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) background threshold values (BTVs) that statistically characterize ambient background conditions for surface waters in undeveloped and developed landscapes of the Pajarito Plateau in the Rio Grande Basin of New Mexico. Between 2009 and 2018, surface water data were collected at 45 locations under a variety of flow conditions and regimes. A total of 163 samples were collected, with roughly 1/3 of samples and locations being in undeveloped areas (n = 53 from 17 locations), and the remainder being in developed areas (n = 110 from 28 locations). While there are areas on the Pajarito Plateau where PCB point sources are known or likely to have contributed to PCBs in soils, PCB BTVs calculated for undeveloped portions of watersheds (upstream of areas where PCB point sources are known or likely to have contributed to PCBs in soils, and therefore not affected by PCB sources within the watershed) are well above New Mexico's human health organism-only (HH-OO) water quality criterion (0.64 ng/L). Background threshold values are even higher in developed areas upstream of managed soil sites, suggesting that in developed areas, both diffuse ambient PCB sources (e.g., atmospheric deposition) and localized urban sources (e.g., building materials, paints, and electrical equipment) contribute to PCBs in those watersheds. These findings indicate that New Mexico's current HH-OO water quality criterion for PCBs cannot practicably be met due to ambient conditions. It is also impracticable to meet the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) criterion continuous concentration (CCC) of 14 ng/L in developed background areas, where the BTV is approximately 1.5 times the CCC. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:1307–1319. © 2022 SETAC

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Marginal Damage of Methane Emissions: Ozone Impacts on Agriculture

Methane directly contributes to air pollution, as an ozone precursor, and to climate change, generating physical and economic damages to different systems, namely agriculture, vegetation, energy, human health, or biodiversity. The methane-related damages to climate, measured as the Social Cost of Methane, and to human health have been analyzed by different studies and considered by government rulemaking in the last decades, but the ozone-related damages to crop revenues associated to methane emissions have not been incorporated to policy agenda. Using a combination of the Global Change Analysis Model and the TM5-FASST Scenario Screening Tool, we estimate that global marginal agricultural damages range from ~ 423 to 556 $2010/t-CH 4 , of which 98 $2010/t-CH 4 occur in the USA, which is the most affected region due to its role as a major crop producer, followed by China, EU-15, and India. These damages would represent 39–59% of the climate damages and 28–64% of the human health damages associated with methane emissions by previous studies. The marginal damages to crop revenues calculated in this study complement the damages from methane to climate and human health, and provides valuable information to be considered in future cost-benefits analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

CO 2 utilization potential of a novel calcium ferrite based looping process fueled with coal: Experimental evaluation of various coal feedstocks and thermodynamic integrated process analysis

Here, conversion of CO 2 to CO was performed at 800-850C via reduction of calcium ferrite (CaFe 2 O 4 ) with coal followed by oxidation of reduced CaFe 2 O 4 with CO 2 to produce CO and partially oxidized Ca ferrite. The process was evaluated with several types of coals which included lignite, sub-bituminous, bituminous, anthracite and pet-coke. Reduction of CaFe 2 O 4 with sub-bituminous coal and lignite coal was more favorable than that with higher rank coals. Stable reactivity performance was demonstrated for 35-cycle test conducted with lignite coal/CaFe 2 O 4 at 800°C and with high conversion of CO 2 to CO. The rate of conversion of CO 2 to CO with reduced CaFe 2 O 4 was found to be 1st order with respect to CO 2 and had a low activation energy of 7.4 kJ/mol. Thermodynamic integrated process assessments suggest that two and three reactor process concepts can be realized and net CO 2 utilization achievable. The two reactor configuration shows the highest potential for CO 2 utilization while generating a value-added CO rich syngas stream.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the reductions in mortality from air-pollution by cancelling new coal power plants

Deep decarbonization paths to the 1.5°C or 2°C temperature stabilization futures require a rapid reduction in conventional coal-fired power plants, but countries are currently building 223 GW of new coal power capacity and plan to build 377 GW more in the next decade. Coal-fired plants are also a major contributor to air pollution related health impacts. Here, we couple an integrated human-earth system model (GCAM) with an air quality model (TM5-FASST) to examine regional health co-benefits from cancelling new coal-fired plants worldwide. Additionally, we find that cancelling all new proposed projects would decrease air pollution related premature mortality between 101,388 - 213,205 deaths (2-5%) in 2030, and 213,414 - 373,054 (5-8%) in 2050, globally, but heavily concentrated in developing Asia. Furthermore, we estimate that strengthening the climate target from 2°C to 1.5°C would avoid 326,351 additional mortalities in 2030, of which 251,011 (75%) are attributable to the incremental coal plant shutdown.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

The role of the iron and steel sector in achieving net zero U.S. CO 2 emissions by 2050

The U.S. steel sector is a hard-to-abate sector because of its heavy dependence on fossil fuels and its high capital requirements. In 2015, the sector was one of the major carbon emitters, contributing 10 % of the U.S. industrial CO 2 emissions. The ability to decarbonize the U.S. iron and steel sector directly affects the ability of the U.S. to achieve economy-wide net zero CO 2 by 2050. In this paper, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to analyze different U.S. steel sector decarbonization pathways under varying technology, policy, and demand futures. These pathways provide insights on how various low-carbon steelmaking technologies such as those using carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen, or scrap could help reduce U.S. steel emissions by mid-century. In our primary decarbonization pathway, we find that nearly all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking capacity is fully integrated with CCS by 2050. However, without CCS availability, almost all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking is phased-out by 2050 and is replaced by hydrogen-based production. Scrap-based production continues to remain vital across both of these decarbonization pathways. Furthermore, we find that demand reduction could help reduce the required levels of CCS and hydrogen-based production in the decarbonization pathways. Implementation of advanced energy efficiency measures could help substantially reduce the sector's energy usage. Finally, we observe that addressing the embodied carbon transfer associated with steel imports will be crucial for fully decarbonizing the U.S. steel sector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the effect of hydride microstructure on zirconium alloys embrittlement using image analysis

Since hydride microstructure can significantly influence Zr alloy nuclear fuel cladding’s ductility, a new metric has been developed to quantify hydride microstructure in 2D micrographs and relate it to crack propagation. As cladding failure usually results from a hoop stress, this new metric, called the Radial Hydride Continuous Path (RHCP), is based on quantifying the continuity of brittle hydride particles along the radial direction of the cladding tube. Compared to previous metrics, this approach more closely relates to the propensity of a crack to propagate radially through the cladding tube thickness. The RHCP takes into account hydride length, orientation, and connectivity to choose the optimal path for crack propagation through the cladding thickness. The RHCP can therefore be more closely linked to hydride embrittlement of the Zr alloy material, thus creating a relationship between material structure, properties, and performance. The new definition, along with previously proposed metrics such as the Radial Hydride Fraction (RHF), the Hydride Continuity Coefficient (HCC), and the Radial Hydride Continuity Factor (RHCF), have been implemented and automated in MATLAB. These codes are made available with this publication as supplementary materials. These metrics were verified by comparing their predictions of hydride morphology against expected values in simple cases, and the implementation of the new metric was validated by comparing its predictions with manual measurements of hydride microstructure performed on ImageJ. The RHCP was also validated against experimental measurements of fracture behavior and it was shown to correlate with cladding failure better than previous metrics. The information provided by these metrics will help accurately assess cladding integrity during operation, transportation, and storage.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Technology Impact and Resource Assessment of Existing and Planned U.S. Biofuel Production: Life Cycle Water Consumption, Water Stress, Land Use, and Criteria Air Pollutants

Biofuels have the potential to strengthen the U.S. energy supply, enhance energy security, and promote economic development. As the United States continues to expand biofuel production, quantifying resource requirements and location-specific constraints is crucial for planning, siting, and technology development to support long-term viability. Accordingly, this work assesses the life cycle resource consumption (water consumption, and land use), water stress and criteria air pollutants associated with expanded U.S. biofuel production over the 2020–2035 period, based on producers’ plans. We perform a bottom-up technology impact assessment and resource assessment by integrating facility-level production statistics with Argonne’s Research and Development (R&D) GREET model and county-level water-stress characterization factors from Available Water Remaining for the United States (AWARE-US) model. Results suggest that by 2035, biofuels could meaningfully contribute to U.S. energy demand, driven primarily by first-generation and waste-based feedstocks with plans for substantial capacity expansion, although cellulosic and e-fuel technologies remain limited. However, growth must be managed to minimize impacts on water resources and land use. These impacts vary by fuel type and facility location, specifically, projected expansion increases water consumption and can elevate water-stress impacts in certain regions like Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Idaho, California and North Texas. Direct land use also increases overall, particularly for first-generation feedstocks such as corn and soybeans. These findings underscore the need for continued technological improvements and innovative strategies to manage resource demands as the industry scales and to support complementary deployment within the evolving U.S. energy system.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Supply and Demand Drivers of Global Hydrogen Deployment in the Transition toward a Decarbonized Energy System

The role of hydrogen in energy system decarbonization is being actively examined by the research and policy communities. We evaluate the potential ‘hydrogen economy’ in global climate change mitigation scenarios using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We consider major hydrogen production methods in conjunction with delivery options to understand how hydrogen infrastructure affects its deployment. We also consider a rich set of hydrogen end-use technologies and vary their costs to understand how demand technologies affect deployment. We find that the availability of hydrogen transmission and distribution infrastructure primarily affects the hydrogen production mix, particularly the share produced centrally versus onsite, whereas assumptions about end-use technology primarily affect the scale of hydrogen deployment. In effect, hydrogen can be a distributed energy vector, enabled by onsite renewable electrolysis and, to a lesser extent, by onsite industrial production using natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS). While the share of hydrogen in final energy is small relative to the share of other major energy carriers in our scenarios, hydrogen enables decarbonization in difficult-to-electrify end uses such as industrial high-temperature heat. Its contribution to greenhouse gas mitigation increases as the climate objective is tightened.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Trade and Climate Mitigation Interactions Create Agro–Economic Opportunities With Social and Environmental Trade–Offs in Latin America and the Caribbean

The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region plays key roles in both meeting global agricultural demands and maintaining carbon sinks due to its abundant land and water resources. In this study we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to evaluate the opportunities and challenges posed by two global-scale drivers: agricultural market integration (i.e., reduction of trade barriers) and land-based climate mitigation policy. We evaluate their potential individual and combined impacts on agricultural production and trade revenues across LAC’s economies through mid-century, as well as the resulting impacts on agricultural consumers and integrated land-water-climate systems across the region’s diverse sub-regions. Increased global market integration results in increased agricultural production and trade revenues for many LAC economies driven by their evolving comparative advantages. Climate mitigation measures on CO 2 and non-CO 2 greenhouse gases increase revenues due to increased agricultural prices from land competition and emissions abatement. The combined outcomes from both drivers are complex and sometimes non-linear, highlighting the importance of understanding the interactions between multiple drivers. Our results show that increased agricultural production and trade opportunities pose significant trade-offs that require careful multi-sectoral planning, such as emissions reduction challenges, potential loss of livestock production when pursuing land-based climate mitigation strategies, increased consumer expenditures, and changes in land-use or water withdrawals, resulting in deforestation or water scarcity pressures. There is considerable heterogeneity in economic and environmental outcomes across LAC sub-regions and agricultural commodities, illustrating the value of considering outcomes at finer scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Limited increases in Arctic offshore oil and gas production with climate change and the implications for energy markets

Climate change impacts on sea ice thickness is opening access to offshore Arctic resources. The degree to which these resources are exploited will depend on sea-ice conditions, technology costs, international energy markets, and the regulatory environment. We use an integrated human-Earth system model, GCAM, to explore the effects of spatial–temporal patterns of sea-ice loss under climate change on future Arctic offshore oil and gas extraction, considering interactions with global energy markets and emission reduction scenarios. We find that under SSP5, a “fossil-fueled development” scenario, the effects of sea-ice loss are larger for Arctic offshore oil production than gas. Under SSP5, future extraction of Arctic offshore oil and gas through 2100 adds roughly 0.8–2.6 EJ/year to oil and gas markets but does not have large impacts on global oil and gas markets. Surprisingly, a low-carbon scenario results in greater Arctic offshore oil production to offset the more emissions-intensive unconventional oil production.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗