Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “impacts”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 541 records · Page 30

Observed impacts of large wind farms on grassland carbon cycling

Deployment of wind energy is an essential renewable energy source that mitigates climate change and reduces air pollution. Over the last several decades, wind energy development has increased worldwide, expanding from ~20 to ~900 GW (gigawatt) during 2001-2022. Nonetheless, researchers have identified unintended consequences of wind energy on microclimate via turbine-altered surface-atmosphere exchanges of energy, momentum, mass, and trace gases. Based on multi-source observations and models, researchers also have drawn some conclusions that wind farms could warm the land surface, especially at night, at regional and continental scales. Consequently, altered microclimates at wind farms may affect vegetation productivity and carbon sequestration, two critically important ecosystem services related to carbon dynamics; however, such potential impacts and driving mechanisms remain poorly understood. Wind energy deployment is increasing globally to meet carbon neutrality goals, with upscaling of onshore wind power capacity projected to grow from 542 GW in 2018 to 1787 and 5044 GW by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Furthermore, increased demand for wind energy deployment may lead to much larger wind farms in open, expansive landscapes. In turn, a large array of geographically clustered wind turbines could collectively modify local microclimate and amplify turbine-atmosphere interactions, which, if large enough, may produce detectable impacts on ecosystem dynamics. Thus, identifying and quantifying the potential impacts of wind farms on carbon-related ecosystem services may facilitate sustainable wind energy development globally.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Bark beetle impacts on forest evapotranspiration and its partitioning

Insect outbreaks affect forest structure and function and represent a major category of forest disturbance globally. However, the resulting impacts on evapotranspiration (ET), and especially hydrological partitioning between the abiotic (evaporation) and biotic (transpiration) components of total ET, are not well constrained. As a result, we combined remote sensing, eddy covariance, and hydrological modeling approaches to determine the effects of bark beetle outbreak on ET and its partitioning at multiple scales throughout the Southern Rocky Mountain Ecoregion (SRME), USA. At the eddy covariance measurement scale, 85 % of the forest was affected by beetles, and water year ET as a fraction of precipitation (P) decreased by 30 % relative to a control site, with 31 % greater reductions in growing season transpiration relative to total ET. At the ecoregion scale, satellite remote sensing masked to areas of >80 % tree mortality showed corresponding ET/P reductions of 9–15 % that occurred 6–8 years post-disturbance, and indicated that the majority of the total reduction occurred during the growing season; the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model showed an associated 9–18 % increase in the ecoregion runoff ratio. Long-term (16–18 year) ET and vegetation mortality datasets extend the length of previously published analyses and allowed for clear characterization of the forest recovery period. During that time, transpiration recovery outpaced total ET recovery, which was lagged in part due to persistently reduced winter sublimation, and there was associated evidence of increasing late summer vegetation moisture stress. Overall, comparison of three independent methods and two partitioning approaches demonstrated a net negative impact of bark beetles on ET, and a relatively greater negative impact on transpiration, following bark beetle outbreak in the SRME.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Higher levels of mixed-linkage (1,3;1,4)-β-glucan in transgenic grasses may impact soil C processing

Carbohydrates, including mixed-linkage glucan (MLG), in grass cell walls make them a valuable potential feedstock for biofuel production. Hence, the development of transgenic grasses with elevated levels of MLG is being actively pursued worldwide. Changes in chemical and physical root characteristics of MLG-overproducing transgenic plants can affect processing of the root-derived carbon (C) by soil microorganisms, impacting soil C cycling. Here, this study is the first attempt to elucidate the impact of MLG-related genetic modifications on root traits, root decomposition, and soil C processing. We explored four genotypes of Brachypodium ( Brachypodium distachyon ): a wildtype, a loss-of-function mutant with low MLG, an MLG overexpressing line, and a line lacking MLG hydrolase (with high MLG), incubating their roots in soils of two contrasting vegetation histories: monoculture switchgrass and polyculture restored prairie. The four genotypes exhibited contrasting root MLG and soluble sugar concentrations, and different growth phenotypes. Roots with the highest MLG content resulted in a ∼55 % increase in microbial biomass C compared to wildtype in both soils. However, the genotype effects on C mineralization rates were influenced by the vegetation history, with significant effects observed only in the soil from switchgrass but not prairie origin. While further work is required to understand the full impact of MLG-overproducing plants on soil C accrual, our findings suggest that their influence on soil C processes cannot be discounted.

Brachypodium distachyon↗

Vegetation browning: global drivers, impacts, and feedbacks

As global climate conditions continue to change, disturbance regimes and environmental drivers will continue to shift, impacting global vegetation dynamics. Following a period of vegetation greening, there has been a progressive increase in remotely sensed vegetation browning globally. Further, given the many societal benefits that forests provide, it is critical that we understand vegetation dynamic alterations. Here, we review associative drivers, impacts, and feedbacks, revealing the complexity of browning. Concomitant increases in browning include the weakening of ecosystem services and functions and alterations to vegetation structure and species composition as well as the development of potential positive climate change feedbacks. Also discussed are the current challenges in browning detection and understanding associated impacts and feedbacks. Finally, we outline recommended strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy and mobility impacts of connected autonomous vehicles with co-optimization of speed and powertrain on mixed vehicle platoons

Intersections are known to be traffic bottlenecks where a significant amount of energy consumption could be caused due to deceleration/acceleration in the presence of red signals. With an increased level of connectivity and automation of intelligent transportation systems, connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) are expected to be able to proactively adjust their driving strategies subject to constraints imposed by the predicted future traffic. As a result, many potential benefits can be achieved, such as improved energy efficiency, enhanced traffic safety, among many others. Notably, the way CAVs are controlled affects the following legacy vehicles (LVs) due to complex traffic dynamics. Here, we are particularly interested in studying the energy and mobility impact of CAVs with an improved traffic prediction method on mixed vehicle platoons at various market penetration rates. Leveraging traffic prediction, CAVs are controlled with co-optimization of their speed and gear position. Specifically, a traffic prediction framework in a rolling horizon fashion is employed based upon a modified Payne–Whitham (PW) model capable of handling mixed traffic consisting of CAVs and LVs. The prediction error of the modified PW model is reduced by 53.62% compared to that of the standard PW model under test scenarios. According to the predicted traffic conditions, speed and gear position of CAVs are co-optimized with the primary goal of minimizing energy consumption when driving on a signalized arterial. The energy benefits achieved by CAVs and the impact of CAVs on LVs behind are studied comprehensively for mixed vehicle platoons. The lead LV follows a real-world speed profile collected on TH-55 in Minnesota. Numerical results show that energy benefits achieved by the vehicle platoon range from 2% to 16%, and a 1% to 5% reduction in travel time for LVs behind CAVs is also observed, at different penetration rates of CAVs in various traffic scenarios. Furthermore, it is observed that CAVs using the proposed eco-driving approach appear to have a positive impact on the LVs behind in terms of energy consumption, regardless of the driving styles of the LVs ahead.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Zooming in on virtual commutes: Telecommuting impacts on mobility and sustainability

Motivated by a societal shift towards remote work and rapid advancement in information and communication technologies, this study examines the impact of telecommuting on urban mobility across the nine counties of the San Francisco Bay Area, California. Utilizing a behaviorally realistic integrated agent-based transportation model and recent data on telecommuting patterns, we simulate the impact of multiple telecommuting scenarios on transportation system outcomes. This provides a comprehensive picture of the impact of remote work on travel costs and accessibility of all travelers, factoring in changes in mode use and congestion. We analyze how telecommuting influences broader societal factors such as transportation energy consumption. Our findings indicate that increased telecommuting reduces overall person miles traveled and transportation energy consumption. Furthermore, telecommuting results in externality benefits by improving accessibility and reducing commute times for non-telecommuters.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Estimating the population level impact of a gonococcal vaccine candidate: Predictions from a simple mathematical model

Neisseria gonorrhoeae cross-protection was suggested in a New Zealand meningitis B vaccine. We modeled the potential impact of similar vaccines on gonorrhea prevalence in heterosexuals in the United States. Here, our mathematical model incorporated infection, behavior, and vaccination dynamics. Approximate Bayesian Computation calibrated our model to US prevalence. Primary analyses assumed New Zealand vaccine characteristics: 30% efficacy and 2-year duration of protection. We estimated impact under two vaccine coverages (20%, 50%). Reduction in gonorrhea prevalence ranged from 4.8 to 39.4%, depending on vaccine coverage. Vaccine impact was correlated with both size of the highly sexually active subpopulation and sexual mixing between high and low activity subpopulations. A meningitis vaccine providing low efficacy cross-protection against gonorrhea acquisition and short duration of protection could result in a large reduction in gonorrhea prevalence in the United States. Potential dual protective effects can be considered when making vaccine recommendations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Computing the viscous effect in early-time drop impact dynamics

The impact of a liquid drop on a solid surface involves many intertwined physical effects, and is influenced by drop velocity, surface tension, ambient pressure and liquid viscosity, among others. Experiments by Kolinski et al. ( Phys. Rev. Lett. , vol. 112, no. 13, 2014 b , p. 134501) show that the liquid–air interface begins to deviate away from the solid surface even before contact. They found that the lift-off of the interface starts at a critical time that scales with the square root of the kinematic viscosity of the liquid. To understand this, we study the approach of a liquid drop towards a solid surface in the presence of an intervening gas layer. We take a numerical approach to solve the Navier–Stokes equations for the liquid, coupled to the compressible lubrication equations for the gas, in two dimensions. With this approach, we recover the experimentally captured early time effect of liquid viscosity on the drop impact, but our results show that lift-off time and liquid kinematic viscosity have a more complex dependence than the square-root scaling relationship. We also predict the effect of interfacial tension at the liquid–gas interface on the drop impact, showing that it mediates the lift-off behaviour.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparative Life Cycle Evaluation of the Global Warming Potential (GWP) Impacts of Renewable Natural Gas Production Pathways

Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) sources are being considered in future energy strategy discussions as potential replacements for fossil natural gas (FNG). While today’s supply of RNG resources is insufficient to meet U.S. demands, there is significant interest in its viability to supplement and decarbonize the natural gas supply. However, the resources that compare the life cycle global warming potential (GWP) of various RNG production pathways are lacking and focus mostly on a singular pathway. This effort is an attempt to close this gap and provide a comparison between the life cycle GWP of three major RNG pathways and the FNG pathway. The three RNG pathways evaluated are Anaerobic Digestion (AD), Thermal Gasification (TG), and Power-to-Gas (P2G) using various feedstocks. The functional unit is 1MJ of compressed RNG ready for injection into the natural gas transmission network. The results show that RNG production is not always carbon neutral or negative. Depending on the pathway the GWP impact of RNG production can range from -229 to 27 g CO 2 e/MJ compressed RNG, with AD of animal manure and AD of municipal solid waste being the least and the most impactful pathways, respectively, compared to the 10.1 g CO 2 e/MJ impact for compressed FNG.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of Fungal Disease on Algal Biofuel Systems: Using Life Cycle Assessment to Compare Control Strategies

While climate change has incentivized attention on sustainable fuel sources, algae has positioned itself as a both promising and problematic biofuel feedstock. Diseases such as fungal pathogens cause costly algal feedstock crashes, but the life cycle assessments (LCAs) used to analyze the viability of algal feedstocks for biofuel have yet to consider the impact of disease on life cycle metrics. Here, we incorporate a disease model into a well-documented LCA for algal biorefineries to compare two sustainability metrics, energy return on investment (EROI) and global warming potential (GWP). We begin by showing that failure to consider disease leads to overly optimistic LCA metric outputs. Then, we compare two leading control strategies of disease chemical and biological. Our analyses show that biological engineering of a multispecies consortium of algae has a greater positive impact on LCA metrics than chemical control of the fungal pathogen using a fungicide. We expand how and when bi-cultures might advantageously exhibit the “dilution effect” whereby differentially susceptible species exhibit compensatory dynamics that stabilize feedstock production. Furthermore, our results emphasize the impact of disease and suggest that multispecies consortia of algae can be biologically engineered to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve the economic viability of biofuel.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Global Impacts of Marine Methanethiol Emissions and Chemistry in the Atmosphere

Oceanic emissions of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) have long been known to influence aerosol particle composition, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration, and Earth’s radiative budget. However, the impact of oceanic emissions of methanethiol (MeSH), a sulfur compound produced by the same oceanic precursor as DMS, has been relatively less explored. The gas-phase oxidation of MeSH has a higher effective yield of SO 2 and a shorter oxidative lifetime compared to DMS, highlighting the relevance of this pathway for the modeled representation of particle formation, growth, and CCN abundance in the marine atmosphere. Here, we use the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem to explore possible scenarios representative of specific environmental conditions and MeSH emission schemes based on previous experimental studies. We further implement and test previously reported chemical mechanisms for MeSH oxidation, along with additional improvements, highlighting key uncertainties and sensitivities for regional and global sulfur budgets. We place our results in the context of recent modeling updates to DMS chemistry and cloud processing, which further impact SO 2 production in the marine atmosphere in parallel with MeSH oxidation. Within the overall marine sulfur budget, our findings highlight that MeSH plays a significant role in SO 2 production in the marine atmosphere, contributing to regional surface layer concentration increases of up to 40–60%. These results point to the importance of MeSH for efforts aimed at improving the modeled representation of sulfur spatiotemporal patterns relevant to air quality predictions and climate impact assessments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Impact of Remdesivir Incorporation along the Primer Strand on SARS-CoV-2 RNA-Dependent RNA Polymerase

Remdesivir was the first antiviral drug that received emergency use authorization from the United States Food and Drug Administration and is now formally approved to treat COVID-19. Remdesivir is a nucleotide analogue that targets the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) of coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2. The solution of multiple RdRp structures has been one of the main axes of research in the race against the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Several hypotheses of the mechanism of inhibition of RdRp by remdesivir have been proposed, although open questions remain. This work uses molecular dynamics simulations to explore the impact of remdesivir and two analogues as incoming nucleotides and of up to four incorporations of remdesivir along the primer strand on RdRp. The simulation results suggest that the overall structure and the dynamical behavior of RdRp are destabilized by remdesivir and the two analogues in the incoming position. The incorporation of remdesivir along the primer strand impacts specific non-bonded interactions between the nascent RNA and the polymerase subunit, as well as the overall dynamical networks on RdRp. The strongest impact on the structure and dynamics are observed after three incorporations, when remdesivir is located at position -A3, in agreement with previously reported experimental and computational results. Our results provide atomic-level details of the role played by remdesivir on the disruption of RNA synthesis by RdRp and the main drivers of these disruptions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Impact of Drought Stress on Sorghum bicolor Yield, Deconstruction, and Microbial Conversion Determined in a Feedstocks-to-Fuels Pipeline

Sorghum is an attractive feedstock for biobased fuel and chemical production because it is familiar to farmers, naturally drought tolerant, and versatile as a food, feed, and fuel crop. Although sorghum is a promising feedstock, particularly in regions that experience drought stress, little is known about how drought conditions impact the ease of conversion of sorghum to fuels and products. This study combines agronomic field trials with a high-throughput experimental pipeline to explore the field performance and liquid biofuel (bisabolene) yields resulting from three sorghum types (photosensitive forage sorghum, optimized grain sorghum, and drought-resistant grain sorghum) grown under pre- and postflowering water limitations in two different California locations. Multiple drought treatments are compared to the control, as the timing (preflowering versus postflowering) of drought stress elicits different survival strategies and corresponding impacts on yield and composition. Forage-type sorghum maintained the highest biomass yields across all irrigation conditions and locations. Glucose and xylose yields resulting from ionic liquid pretreatment and enzymatic saccharification were not significantly impacted by irrigation treatments but differed by location and genotype. However, Rhodosporidium toruloides grown on the resulting plant hydrolysates unexpectedly produced higher titers of bisabolene for drought-stressed sorghum samples regardless of genotype.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The Impact of U.S. Re-engagement in Climate on the Paris Targets

The Paris Agreement is meant to bind together international efforts to reduce temperature increase to well-below 2ºC. While so far, ambitions in many signatories of the Paris Agreement have been insufficient to achieve this goal, optimism prevailed in the second half of 2020, with several major emitters enhancing their mitigation targets and a change of leadership in the United States (U.S.). Expectations are high for an active re-engagement in climate action by the Biden Administration, which immediately re-entered the Paris Agreement and announced a net-zero goal for 2050. Apart from the impact that U.S. federal re-engagement could have on national greenhouse gas emissions levels, there are several channels through which U.S. re-engagement in climate action could positively impact ambitions in other countries. This Policy Forum explores the impact of renewed U.S. engagement on national emissions, global emissions and end-of-century temperatures by comparing five combinations of climate ambitions in the U.S. and the rest of the world through an integrated assessment model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of Sub‐Grid Topographic Representations on Surface Energy Balance and Boundary Conditions in the E3SM Land Model: A Case Study in Sierra Nevada

Abstract Sub‐grid topographic heterogeneity has large impacts on surface energy balance and land‐atmosphere interactions. However, the impacts of representing sub‐grid topographic effects in land surface models (LSMs) on surface energy balance and boundary conditions remain unclear. This study analyzed and evaluated the impacts of sub‐grid topographic representations on surface energy balance, turbulent heat flux, and scalar (co‐)variances in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Three sub‐grid topographic representations in ELM were compared: (a) the default sub‐grid structure (D), (b) the recently developed sub‐grid topographic structure (T), and (c) high spatial resolution (1KM). Additionally, two different solar radiation schemes in ELM were compared: (a) the default plane‐parallel radiative transfer scheme (PP) and (b) the parameterization scheme (TOP) that accounts for sub‐grid topographic effects on solar radiation. A series of offline simulations with the three grid discretization structures (D, T, and 1KM) and two schemes of solar radiation (TOP and PP) were carried out using the Sierra Nevada, California. 1KM simulations with TOP well capture the spatial heterogeneity of surface fluxes compared to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer remote sensing data. There are significant differences between TOP and PP in the 1‐km simulated surface energy balance, but the differences in mean values and standard deviations become small when aggregated to the grid scale (i.e., 0.5°). The T configuration better mimics the 1KM simulations with TOP than the D configuration and better captures the sub‐grid topographic effects on surface energy balance and boundary conditions. These results underline the importance of representing sub‐grid topographic heterogeneities in LSMs and motivate future research to understand the sub‐grid topographic effects on land‐atmosphere interactions over mountainous areas.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

Future water scarcity is a global concern with significant impacts on the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods consumed around the world, so disruptions resulting from land and water scarcity in LAC are a source of global supply chain risk. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could drive that scarcity to emerge is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity impacts in LAC is challenging given the multisector dynamic interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across different spatial scales. We use scenario discovery to explore the drivers of future water scarcity, considering assumptions related to climate, socioeconomics, and the EWL sectors. Understanding what factors drive uncertainty across outcomes can help stakeholders in targeting long-term solutions and future data collection efforts. To illuminate these dynamics, we use a database consisting of a large ensemble of scenarios representing diverse worlds simulated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across the scenarios using three metrics: (1) physical water scarcity, (2) water price, and (3) crop profit. We find that physical water scarcity and water price are driven primarily by reservoir storage capacity assumptions, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability and accessibility. Crop profit is driven by a combination of water supply and demand assumptions, which emphasizes the complex nature of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for development, water basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high levels of severity and uncertainty across the future scenarios for at least one of the metrics. We find that the drivers of extreme scarcity vary spatially and across the metrics, further highlighting the heterogeneity of the region and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity vulnerability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Impact of Crop Rotation and Spatially Varying Crop Parameters in the E3SM Land Model (ELMv2)

Abstract Earth System Models (ESMs) are increasingly representing agriculture due to its impact on biogeochemical cycles, local and regional climate, and fundamental importance for human society. Realistic large scale simulations may require spatially varying crop parameters that capture crop growth at various scales and among different cultivars, as well as common crop management practices, but their importance is uncertain, and they are often not represented in ESMs. In this study, we examine the impact of using constant versus spatially varying crop parameters using a novel, realistic crop rotation scenario in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model version 2 (ELMv2). We implemented crop rotation by using ELMv2's dynamic land unit capability, and then calibrated and validated the model against observations collected at three AmeriFlux sites in the US Midwest with corn soybean rotation. The calibrated model closely captured the magnitude and observed seasonality of carbon and energy fluxes across crops and sites. We performed regional simulations for the US Midwest using the calibrated model and found that spatially varying only a few crop parameters across the region, as opposed to using constant parameters, had a large impact, with the carbon fluxes and energy fluxes both varying by up to 40%. These results imply that large scale ESM simulations using spatially invariant crop parameters may result in biased energy and carbon fluxes estimation from agricultural land, and underline the importance of improving human‐earth systems interactions in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Uncertain Spatial Pattern of Future Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Impacts on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Over the Arctic–Boreal Region of North America

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regional LULCC projections by integrated assessment models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). The uncertainty associated with the different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on the subsequent model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined. This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial downscaling methods and focused on their impacts on the carbon cycle over the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) domain, where extensive LULCC is expected. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) and the Demeter model to generate 0.25° gridded LULCC data (i.e., LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , respectively) with the same input of regional LULCC projections from GCAM, under both the low (i.e., SSP126) and high (i.e., SSP585) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were used to drive the Community Land Model version 5 and prognostically simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large spatial-temporal differences between LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , and the spatial distributions of the needleleaf evergreen boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub, and C3 arctic grass are particularly different under both SSP126 and SSP585. Additionally, the spatiotemporal differences are larger under SSP126 than SSP585, due to more intensive LULCC under SSP126 than SSP585 from GCAM projection. The differences in LULCC further lead to large discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange, which represent more than 79% of the contributions of future LULCC in 2100. Additionally, the difference in carbon flux under SSP126 is generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the importance of considering the uncertainties induced by the spatial downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗