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At least 541 records · Page 30

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66% for the present day to roughly 68% to 85% by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (~5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5°C warming on the other.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Computation of unsteady transonic flows through rotating and stationary cascades. 3: Acoustic far-field analysis

A small perturbation type analysis has been developed for the acoustic far field in an infinite duct extending upstream and downstream of an axial turbomachinery stage. The analysis is designed to interface with a numerical solution of the near field of the blade rows and, thereby, to provide the necessary closure condition to complete the statement of infinite duct boundary conditions for the subject problem. The present analysis differs from conventional inlet duct analyses in that a simple harmonic time dependence was not assumed, since a transient signal is generated by the numerical near-field solution and periodicity is attained only asymptotically. A description of the computer code developed to carry out the necessary convolutions numerically is included, as well as the results of a sample application using an impulsively initiated harmonic signal.

Slutsky, S.↗

Presentations by participants (edited and condensed)

The utility of Geomagnetic Automonous Shuttle-Launched Probe (GASP) for studying the earth's crust can be characterized in terms of lithospheric contributions by past satellite programs. In contrast to the POGO and MAGSAT satellites, GASP will orbit at a lower elevation to provide better resolved lithospheric magnetic anomalies for more detailed and improved geologic analysis. In the geological representation of satellite magnetic anomaly data, two current approaches can serve the analysis of GASP observations. When global scale coverage is available, spherical harmonic expansions of the observations may be utilized. When satellite elevation data is used, a useful and efficient approach is to determine the physical properties of an array of point equivalent sources by least squares matrix inversion of the observations, which will closely duplicate the observed field. An important preliminary step in the representation of satellite magnetic observations by either approach, is to register the data at constant elevation over uniform intervals of latitude and longitude. Further applications of GASP are discussed.

Vonfrese, R. R. B.↗

Nondestructive Determination of Bond Strength

Although many nondestructive techniques have been applied to detect disbonds in adhesive joints, no absolutely reliable nondestructive method has been developed to detect poor adhesion and evaluate the strength of bonded joints prior to the present work which used nonlinear ultrasonic methods to investigate adhesive bond cure conditions. Previously, a variety of linear and nonlinear ultrasonic methods with water coupling had been used to study aluminum-adhesive-aluminum laminates, prepared under different adhesive curing conditions, for possible bond strength determination. Therefore, in the course of this research effort, a variety of finite-amplitude experimental methods which could possibly differentiate various cure conditions were investigated, including normal and oblique incidence approaches based on nonlinear harmonic generation as well as several non-collinear two-wave interaction approaches. Test samples were mechanically scanned in various ways with respect to the focus of a transmitting transducer operated at several variable excitation frequencies and excitation levels. Even when powerful sample-related resonances were exploited by means of a frequency scanning approach, it was very difficult to isolate the nonlinear characteristics of adhesive bonds. However, a multi-frequency multi-power approach was quite successful and reliable. Ultrasonic tone burst signals at increasing power levels, over a wide frequency range, were transmitted through each bond specimen to determine its excitation dependent nonlinear harmonic resonance behavior. Relative amplitude changes were observed particularly in the higher harmonic spectral data and analyzed using a local displacement and strain analysis in the linear approximation. Two analysis approaches of the excitation-dependent data at specific resonances were found to be quite promising. One of these approaches may represent a very robust algorithm for classifying an adhesive bond as being properly cured or not. Another approach, in addition to differentiation between various cure conditions, may even provide information with respect to the bond strength. Several technical papers were published during the course of this research and a summary is presented in the Ph.D. dissertation of Tobias P. Berndt, a graduate student financially supported by this NASA Grant.

Source record↗

The Local Stellar Velocity Field via Vector Spherical Harmonics

We analyze the local field of stellar tangential velocities for a sample of 42,339 nonbinary Hipparcos stars with accurate parallaxes, using a vector spherical harmonic formalism.We derive simple relations between the parameters of the classical linear model (Ogorodnikov-Milne) of the local systemic field and low-degree terms of the general vector harmonic decomposition. Taking advantage of these relationships, we determine the solar velocity with respect to the local stars of (V(sub X), V(sub Y), V(sub Z)) = (10.5, 18.5, 7.3) +/- 0.1 km s(exp -1) not for the asymmetric drift with respect to the local standard of rest. If only stars more distant than 100 pc are considered, the peculiar solar motion is (V(sub X), V(sub Y), V(sub Z)) = (9.9, 15.6, 6.9) +/- 0.2 km s(exp -1). The adverse effects of harmonic leakage, which occurs between the reflex solar motion represented by the three electric vector harmonics in the velocity space and higher degree harmonics in the proper-motion space, are eliminated in our analysis by direct subtraction of the reflex solar velocity in its tangential components for each star...

kinematics↗

Reflection and Timing Study of the Transient Black Hole X-Ray Binary MAXI J1803-298 with NuSTAR

The transient black hole X-ray binary MAXI J1803−298 was discovered on 2021 May 1, as it went into outburst from a quiescent state. As the source rose in flux it showed periodic absorption dips and fit the timing and spectral characteristics of a hard-state accreting black hole. We report on the results of a Target-of-Opportunity observation with NuSTAR obtained near the peak outburst flux beginning on 2021 May 13, after the source had transitioned into an intermediate state. MAXI J1803−298 is variable across the observation, which we investigate by extracting spectral and timing products separately for different levels of flux throughout the observation. Our timing analysis reveals two distinct potential quasiperiodic oscillations (QPOs) which are not harmonically related at 5.4 ± 0.2 Hz and 9.4 ± 0.3 Hz, present only during periods of lower flux. With clear relativistic reflection signatures detected in the source spectrum, we applied several different reflection models to the spectra of MAXI J1803−298. Here we report our results, utilizing high-density reflection models to constrain the disk geometry, and assess changes in the spectrum dependent on the source flux. With a standard broken power-law emissivity, we find a near-maximal spin for the black hole, and we are able to constrain the inclination of the accretion disk at 75° ± 2°, which is expected for a source that has shown periodic absorption dips. We also significantly detect a narrow absorption feature at 6.91 ± 0.06 keV with an equivalent width between 4 and 9 eV, which we interpret as the signature of a disk wind.

Benjamin M. Coughenour↗

A new constraint on Saturn's zonal gravity harmonics from Voyager observations of an eccentric ringlet

The results obtained by Porco et al. (1984) from an analysis of the kinematics of an eccentric ringlet in Saturn's inner ring are used to add an additional constraint to the gravity solution of Null et al. (1981) and thus to derive the first experimental estimate of the Saturn's J6 gravitational field. On the assumption that the eccentricity of this ringlet is forced by the satellite Titan, the location of the Titan apsidal resonance is determined to an accuracy of + or - 13 km, which in turn provides a strong constraint on Saturn's zonal gravity harmonics. Combining this constraint with the results of Null et all. and adopting a priori values for J8, J10, and J12 based on interior models, new estimates are obtained for the first three zonal gravity coefficients J2, J4, and J6.

Nicholson, Philip D.↗

Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD): an Analysis Tool for Spacecraft Safety Analysis and Ascent/Reentry Risk Assessment

For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a probable offnominal suborbital/orbital atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, and validation of the SPEAD analysis tool. SPEAD is applicable for Earth or Mars, with the option for 3 or 6 degrees-of-freedom (DOF) trajectory propagation. The atmosphere and aerodynamics data are supplied in tables, for linear interpolation of up to 4 independent variables. The gravitation model can include up to 20 zonal harmonic coefficients. The modeling of a single motor is available and can be adapted to multiple motors. For thermal analysis, the aerodynamic radiative and free-molecular/continuum convective heating, black-body radiative cooling, conductive heat transfer between adjacent nodes, and node ablation are modeled. In a 6- DOF simulation, the local convective heating on a node is a function of Mach, angle-ofattack, and sideslip angle, and is dependent on 1) the location of the node in the spacecraft and its orientation to the flow modeled by an exposure factor, and 2) the geometries of the spacecraft and the node modeled by a heating factor and convective area. Node failure is evaluated using criteria based on melting temperature, reference heat load, g-load, or a combination of the above. The failure of a liquid propellant tank is evaluated based on burnout flux from nucleate boiling or excess internal pressure. Following a component failure, updates are made as needed to the spacecraft mass and aerodynamic properties, nodal exposure and heating factors, and nodal convective and conductive areas. This allows the trajectory to be propagated seamlessly in a single run, inclusive of the trajectories of components that have separated from the spacecraft. The node ablation simulates the decreasing mass and convective/reference areas, and variable heating factor. A built-in database provides the thermo-mechanical properties of For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a probable offnominal suborbital/orbital atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, and validation of the SPEAD analysis tool. SPEAD is applicable for Earth or Mars, with the option for 3 or 6 degrees-of-freedom (DOF) trajectory propagation. The atmosphere and aerodynamics data are supplied in tables, for linear interpolation of up to 4 independent variables. The gravitation model can include up to 20 zonal harmonic coefficients. The modeling of a single motor is available and can be adapted to multiple motors. For thermal analysis, the aerodynamic radiative and free-molecular/continuum convective heating, black-body radiative cooling, conductive heat transfer between adjacent nodes, and node ablation are modeled. In a 6- DOF simulation, the local convective heating on a node is a function of Mach, angle-ofattack, and sideslip angle, and is dependent on 1) the location of the node in the spacecraft and its orientation to the flow modeled by an exposure factor, and 2) the geometries of the spacecraft and the node modeled by a heating factor and convective area. Node failure is evaluated using criteria based on melting temperature, reference heat load, g-load, or a combination of the above. The failure of a liquid propellant tank is evaluated based on burnout flux from nucleate boiling or excess internal pressure. Following a component failure, updates are made as needed to the spacecraft mass and aerodynamic properties, nodal exposure and heating factors, and nodal convective and conductive areas. This allows the trajectory to be propagated seamlessly in a single run, inclusive of the trajectories of components that have separated from the spacecraft. The node ablation simulates the decreasing mass and convective/reference areas, and variable heating factor. A built-in database provides the thermo-mechanical properties of

Ling, Lisa↗

Interior structure of Neptune - Comparison with Uranus

Measurements of rotation rates and gravitational harmonics of Neptune made with the Voyager 2 spacecraft allow tighter constraints on models of the planet's interior. Shock measurements of material that may match the composition of Neptune, the so-called planetary 'ice', have been carried out to pressures exceeding 200 gigapascals (2 megabars). Comparison of shock data with inferred pressure-density profiles for both Uranus and Neptune shows substantial similarity through most of the mass of both planets. Analysis of the effect of Neptune's strong differential rotation on its gravitational harmonics indicates that differential rotation involves only the outermost few percent of Neptune's mass.

Hubbard, W. B.↗

Evaluation of Rotor Structural and Aerodynamic Loads using Measured Blade Properties

The structural properties of Higher harmonic Aeroacoustic Rotor Test (HART I) blades have been measured using the original set of blades tested in the wind tunnel in 1994. A comprehensive rotor dynamics analysis is performed to address the effect of the measured blade properties on airloads, blade motions, and structural loads of the rotor. The measurements include bending and torsion stiffness, geometric offsets, and mass and inertia properties of the blade. The measured properties are correlated against the estimated values obtained initially by the manufacturer of the blades. The previously estimated blade properties showed consistently higher stiffnesses, up to 30% for the flap bending in the blade inboard root section. The measured offset between the center of gravity and the elastic axis is larger by about 5% chord length, as compared with the estimated value. The comprehensive rotor dynamics analysis was carried out using the measured blade property set for HART I rotor with and without HHC (Higher Harmonic Control) pitch inputs. A significant improvement on blade motions and structural loads is obtained with the measured blade properties.

Jung, Sung N.↗

Life-cycle analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from hydrogen delivery: A cost-guided analysis

The cost of hydrogen delivery for transportation accounts for most of the current H 2 selling price; delivery also requires substantial amounts of energy. In this work, we developed harmonized techno-economic and life-cycle emissions models of current and future H 2 production and delivery pathways. Our techno-economic analysis of dispensed H 2 costs guided our selection of pathways for the life-cycle analysis. In this paper, we present the results of market expansion scenarios using existing capabilities (for example, those that use H 2 from steam methane reforming, chlor-alkali, and natural gas liquid cracker plants), as well as results for future electrolysis plants that use nuclear, solar, and hydroelectric power. Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions for fuel cell electric vehicles compared to conventional gasoline pathways vary from 40% reduction for fossil-derived H 2 to 20-fold for clean H 2 . Supplemental tables with greenhouse gas emissions data for each step in the H 2 pathways enable readers to evaluate additional scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗

An Advanced Open-Source Platform for Air Quality Analysis, Visualization, and Prediction

Ambient air pollution is the largest environmental health risk factor, leading to several million premature deaths globally per year. The challenge of combating poor air quality is exacerbated by growing urban populations, changing emissions, and a warming climate. While there have been many advances monitoring and modeling of atmospheric composition, reflected in the dramatic increase in archived Earth Observations, there is no single measurement or method that alone can provide an accurate depiction of the entire atmosphere. The rapidly growing collections of observational and modeling data require us to be smarter about what data to include, and how such data is used. In recent years, NASA has invested significantly in advancing the concepts for Analytics Collaborative Framework (ACF) [5] and New Observing Strategies (NOS) [4] to tackle our software infrastructure need for harmonized data management and dynamic acquisition of diverse measurements for on-demand, interactive, multivariate analysis, and access [3]. It is not enough to have a big data, standalone analytics solution; it is critical that we start integrating data from remote sensing, modeling, and in-situ networks in a harmonized manner that enables timely and data-driven decision-making for air quality management. This work presents the design and development of an Air Quality Analytics Collaborative Framework (AQ ACF), as part of NASA’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) effort, to establish a data, machine-learning, and numerically driven platform for air quality analysis, visualization, and prediction.

Liu, Qian↗

Boundary element analysis of sound scattered by a moving surface

A solution for the acoustic field scattered from a uniformly moving rigid body in the presence of a harmonic incident source has been obtained using a boundary integral method. A derivation of the Kirchhoff formula given by Farassat and Myers (1988) for moving surfaces forms the basis for the analysis, and the development of a boundary integral method for the solution of scattering problems from moving rigid bodies is described. Finite elements are used in conjunction with the Galerkin method in order to solve the integral equation that results from the Kirchhoff formula when the observer point is placed on the moving body surface. Once appropriate surface field values are known they are inserted back into the formula in order to predict the field scattered off the body. Tests, including the so called superposition method, are carried out in order to validate the technique and to establish some confidence in its accuracy. Application of the superposition method to moving bodies is presented, and results of the two approaches are discussed. Sample calculations of scattering from a simple body are presented to illustrate the effects of variations in relevant parameters.

Myers, M. K.↗

Global Analysis of Nonlinear Second-Mode Development in a Mach-6 Boundary Layer From High-Speed Schlieren Data

The second-mode instability on a 7◦ half-angle sharp cone at Mach 6 is analyzed using high-speed calibrated schlieren imagery at a frame rate near the expected fundamental frequency. Experiments were conducted in the NASA Langley 20-Inch Mach 6 facility at unit Reynolds number between 6.56×106 and 9.71×106 m−1. Time-resolved pixel intensity signals throughout the boundary layer are reconstructed using spatially available data in the schlieren images to recover an effective sampling rate of over 10 MHz; these are then converted to quantitative density gradients using a thin-lens-based calibration technique. A global analysis is performed on the schlieren data to investigate the nonlinear growth of the second-mode fundamental and harmonic content. Point-wise measures of the auto-bicoherence are used to identify specific triadic interactions and the locations of their highest levels of quadratic phase coupling. Significant resonance interactions between the second-mode fundamental and harmonic instabilities were found along with interactions between these and the mean flow. Bispectral mode decomposition is employed to educe the flow structures associated with these interactions. A similar analysis is performed for the power spectrum, with power spectral densities computed for each pixel’s time-series and spectral proper orthogonal decomposition employed to derive the modal structure and energy of the flow at specific frequencies. Comparisons between the bispectral quantities and second-mode power show that nonlinear interactions, particularly resonance interactions, are closely correlated with space-time modulation of disturbances during the nonlinear stage of transition.

boundary layer transition↗

Local Lunar Gravity Field Analysis over the South Pole-aitken Basin from SELENE Farside Tracking Data

We present a method with which we determined the local lunar gravity field model over the South Pole-Aitken (SPA) basin on the farside of the Moon by estimating adjustments to a global lunar gravity field model using SELENE tracking data. Our adjustments are expressed in localized functions concentrated over the SPA region in a spherical cap with a radius of 45deg centered at (191.1 deg E, 53.2 deg S), and the resolution is equivalent to a 150th degree and order spherical harmonics expansion. The new solution over SPA was used in several applications of geophysical analysis. It shows an increased correlation with high-resolution lunar topography in the frequency band l = 40-70, and admittance values are slightly different and more leveled when compared to other, global gravity field models using the same data. The adjustments expressed in free-air anomalies and differences in Bouguer anomalies between the local solution and the a priori global solution correlate with topographic surface features. The Moho structure beneath the SPA basin is slightly modified in our solution, most notably at the southern rim of the Apollo basin and around the Zeeman crater

Lunar Gravity↗

Analysis of crustal structure of Venus utilizing residual Line-of-Sight (LOS) gravity acceleration and surface topography data. A trial of global modeling of Venus gravity field using harmonic spline method

To construct Venus' gravity disturbance field (or gravity anomaly) with the spacecraft-observer line of site (LOS) acceleration perturbation data, both a global and a local approach can be used. The global approach, e.g., spherical harmonic coefficients, and the local approach, e.g., the integral operator method, based on geodetic techniques are generally not the same, so that they must be used separately for mapping long wavelength features and short wavelength features. Harmonic spline, as an interpolation and extrapolation technique, is intrinsically flexible to both global and local mapping of a potential field. Theoretically, it preserves the information of the potential field up to the bound by sampling theorem regardless of whether it is global or local mapping, and is never bothered with truncation errors. The improvement of harmonic spline methodology for global mapping is reported. New basis functions, a singular value decomposition (SVD) based modification to Parker & Shure's numerical procedure, and preliminary results are presented.

Fang, Ming↗