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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

The value of hydropower flexibility for electricity system decarbonization

Hydropower is an abundant, dispatchable, clean energy resource that will play an important role in supporting the clean energy transition. In particular, dispatchable hydropower can provide the operational flexibility that will be required in future systems with high variable renewable energy penetrations. However, the theoretical operational flexibility of hydropower can be restricted in practice by various non-power constraints. In this paper, we quantify how increasing the operational flexibility of dispatchable hydropower resources with reservoirs impacts least-cost generation portfolios and supports power system decarbonization. Specifically, we conduct a capacity expansion analysis of a two-zone system: a hydro-dominated region and a neighboring region with aggressive decarbonization targets that are represented by the United States Pacific Northwest and California respectively. We then introduce a quantifiable index for characterizing the operational flexibility of reservoir hydropower and assess how changes in this metric impact the system-optimal generation portfolio. We find that increasing hydropower flexibility leads to more investment in wind generation, less investment in natural gas generation, lower system costs, and lower system emissions. We further demonstrate a substitution effect between the grid services provided by flexible hydropower operation, increased transmission capacity on a congested line, and energy storage resources. Finally, we show that increasing the operational flexibility of hydropower increases the effective load carrying capability of both hydropower and wind resources. This research supports a more nuanced understanding of how hydropower can support electricity system decarbonization and may motivate reassessing the cost-benefit tradeoffs of non-power constraints that restrict operational flexibility.

Capacity expansion modeling↗
DOE OSTI2026

RU-net for automatic characterization of TRISO fuel cross sections

During irradiation, phenomena such as kernel swelling and buffer densification may impact the performance of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel. Post-irradiation microscopy is often used to identify these irradiation-induced morphologic changes. However, each fuel compact generally contains thousands of TRISO particles. Manually performing the work to get statistical information on these phenomena is cumbersome and subjective. Here, to reduce the subjectivity inherent in that process and to accelerate data analysis, we used convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to automatically segment cross-sectional images of microscopic TRISO layers. CNNs are a class of machine-learning algorithms specifically designed for processing structured grid data. They have gained popularity in recent years due to their remarkable performance in various computer vision tasks, including image classification, object detection, and image segmentation. In this research, we generated a large irradiated TRISO layer dataset with more than 2,000 microscopic images of cross-sectional TRISO particles and the corresponding annotated images. Based on these annotated images, we used different CNNs to automatically segment different TRISO layers. These CNNs include RU-Net (developed in this study), as well as three existing architectures: U-Net, Residual Network (ResNet), and Attention U-Net. The preliminary results show that the model based on RU-Net performs best in terms of Intersection over Union (IoU). Using CNN models, we can expedite the analysis of TRISO particle cross sections, significantly reducing the manual labor involved and improving the objectivity of the segmentation results.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of a Hardware-in-The-Loop Testbed for a Decentralized, Data-Driven Electric Vehicle Charging Control Algorithm

This study presents the design of an electric vehicle (EV)-grid integration (EVGI) hardware test-bed to implement smart EV charging algorithms. Here, the proposed test-bed also allows to create different grid events via flexible integration of other power hardware (e.g., controllable loads and battery energy storage systems) and test their impacts on EV charging. The design uses a real-time digital simulator to realize a complex distribution grid model with primary and secondary networks. A grid simulator physically realizes the selected nodes of the simulated grid to power an actual EV, forming a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) test setup. The EV-grid integration is demonstrated based on the custom hardware and software implementation of the J1772 charging protocol using dSPACE MicroLabBox, operating as a custom EV Supply Equipment (EVSE). The HIL test-bed features a novel testing platform for accurate implementation and analysis of scalable charging algorithms. To this end, a data-driven, decentralized, model-free charging controller based on the Additive Increase and Multiplicative Decrease (AIMD) algorithm is presented and validated on an EV using the HIL test-bed. We tested the proposed algorithm under various case studies, and presented a comparison study with an existing droop-based, decentralized charging solution. The results showed that the EV successfully performed charging commands generated by the EVSE and regulated its charging power to effectively reduce the system loading caused by high EV penetration.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Overcoming the Technical Challenges of Coordinating Distributed Load Resources at Scale (Final Report)

Significant recent research has investigated the potential for loads to provide balancing services to the grid. However, this research has not addressed key issues that may arise when such schemes are applied at scale including: 1. Distribution Network Issues. Coordination of large numbers of loads could result in power flows that violate distribution network constraints; 2. Stability Issues. Certain strategies to control loads can exhibit nonlinearity in the form of period-adding bifurcations and chaos. Other control strategies can potentially synchronize the behavior of large numbers of loads. In both cases, the outcome can be power oscillations and instability; 3. Communication Network Issues. Bidirectional low-latency communication channels between a central controller (or several distributed controllers) and each resource are expensive and likely not necessary for effective coordination. Our research questions were: What network, stability, and communication issues might arise in practice when we coordinate large aggregations of loads? How can we coordinate loads to achieve performance objectives in a cost effective manner while avoiding these issues? The ultimate technical goal of the project was the development of network-aware, communication-constrained, non-disruptive load control strategies with stability guarantees that achieve the performance requirements of typical balancing services at a sufficiently low cost to enable the load aggregator and customer to profit. The overall goal was to establish credibility for load control at scale and contribute to U.S. energy security and environmental goals. The team succeeded in answering these research questions and developing these control strategies. The overall approach was based on the development of three testing environments: a simulation testbed, an experimental testbed (20 physical model houses with window-box air conditioners) coupled with the simulation testbed, and a field testbed (100 actual homes in Austin, TX) coupled with the simulation testbed, which enabled controller testing, identification of issues, controller development, and controller validation. The resulting controller was used to demonstrate fast timescale grid balancing (frequency regulation) by aggregations of physical and virtual air conditioners, with sufficient quality to participate in the electricity market. Cost benefit analysis showed overall benefits to the participating households, load aggregators, and the grid, especially if the control technology was integrated directly into existing programmable communicating thermostats. The project provides a variety of wider benefits. Our technology transfer and outreach activities lead us to choose an open-source licensing commercialization pathway, enabling the project results to be available to researchers, industry, and the public. Furthermore, new grid balancing technologies will increase grid flexibility and will enable higher penetrations of intermittent renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar, to be connected to the grid, reducing its environmental impact, and mitigating climate change to the benefit of society.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2014

Global Top-Down Smoke-Aerosol Emissions Estimation Using Satellite Fire Radiative Power Measurements

Fire emissions estimates have long been based on bottom-up approaches that are not only complex, but also fraught with compounding uncertainties. We present the development of a global gridded (1 deg ×1 deg) emission coefficients (Ce) product for smoke total particulate matter (TPM) based on a top-down approach using coincident measurements of fire radiative power (FRP) and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. This new Fire Energetics and Emissions Research version 1.0 (FEER.v1) Ce product has now been released to the community and can be obtained from http://feer.gsfc. nasa.gov/, along with the corresponding 1-to-1 mapping of their quality assurance (QA) flags that will enable the Ce values to be filtered by quality for use in various applications. The regional averages of Ce values for different ecosystem types were found to be in the ranges of 16-21/gMJ−1 for savanna and grasslands, 15-32/gMJ−1 for tropical forest, 9-12/gMJ−1 for North American boreal forest, and 18- 26/MJ−1 for Russian boreal forest, croplands and natural vegetation. The FEER.v1 Ce product was multiplied by time-integrated FRP data to calculate regional smoke TPM emissions, which were compared with equivalent emissions products from three existing inventories. FEER.v1 showed higher and more reasonable smoke TPM estimates than two other emissions inventories that are based on bottom-up approaches and already reported in the literature to be too low, but portrayed an overall reasonable agreement with another top-down approach. This suggests that top-down approaches may hold better promise and need to be further developed to accelerate the reduction of uncertainty associated with fire emissions estimation in air-quality and climate research and applications. Results of the analysis of FEER.v1 data for 2004-2011 show that 65-85 Tg yr−1 of TPM is emitted globally from open biomass burning, with a generally decreasing trend over this short time period. The FEER.v1 Ce product is the first global gridded product in the family of "emission factors", that is based essentially on satellite measurements, and requires only direct satellite FRP measurements of an actively burning fire anywhere to evaluate its emission rate in near-real time, which is essential for operational activities, such as the monitoring and forecasting of smoke emission impacts on air quality.

biomass burning↗
NASA NTRS2022

Updraft Dynamics and Microphysics: On the Added Value of the Cumulus Thermal Reference Frame in Simulations of Aerosol–Deep Convection Interactions

One fundamental question about atmospheric moist convection processes that remains debated is whether or under what conditions a relevant variability in background aerosol concentrations may have a significant dynamical impact on convective clouds and their associated precipitation. Furthermore, current climate models must parameterize both the microphysical and the cumulus convection processes, but this is usually implemented separately, whereas in nature there is a strong coupling between them. As a first step to improve our understanding of these two problems, we investigate how aerosol concentrations modify key properties of updrafts in eight large-eddy permitting regional simulations of a case study of scattered convection over Houston, Texas, in which convection is explicitly simulated and microphysical processes are parameterized. Dynamical and liquid-phase microphysical responses are investigated using two different reference frames: static cloudy-updraft grid cells versus tracked cumulus thermals. In both frameworks we observe the expected microphysical responses to higher aerosol concentrations, such as higher cloud number concentrations and lower rain number concentrations. In terms of the dynamical responses, both frameworks indicate weak impacts of varying aerosol concentrations relative to the noise between simulations over the observationally derived range of aerosol variability for this case study. On the other hand, results suggest that thermals are more selective than cloudy-updraft grid cells in terms of sampling the most active convective air masses. For instance, vertical velocity from thermals is significantly higher at upper levels than when sampled from cloudy-updraft grid points, and several microphysical variables have higher average values in the cumulus thermal framework than in the cloudy-updraft framework. In addition, the thermal analysis is seen to add rich quantitative information about the rates and covariability of microphysical processes spatially and throughout tracked thermal lifecycles, which can serve as a stronger foundation for improving subgrid-scale parameterizations.

Daniel Hernandez-Deckers↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supporting the Transition from Grid-Scale to Emerging Market Wave Energy Converter Design and Assessment

In the past decade there has been increasing interest in emerging markets for wave energy, both as a stepping stone for development and as a way to create new opportunities for offshore markets such as ocean observation or desalination. Developers who were once focused exclusively on grid-scale development have begun to engage with more unique markets. This has led researchers to begin examining means of assessing emerging-market devices. In this paper, we analyze the Technology Performance Level (TPL) Assessment for its potential use in the assessment of emerging market wave energy converters (EM-WECs). We use Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and a question-by-question analysis of the TPL assessment to determine the changes necessary for such an assessment to be applicable in emerging markets. We discuss how the primary differences between the markets could impact the viable development pathways for developers hoping to succeed in multiple markets. We determine that the different stakeholders and stakeholder requirements of some emerging markets compared to gridscale applications should be met with changes to cost-toperformance metrics, prototype testing processes, recovery planning, materials selection, optimization objectives, and public engagement.

blue economy↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Evolving Nature of Grid Energy

Current trends in the electricity sector, including more variable renewable energy, electrification of transportation and other end-uses, and city and state-level clean electricity goals, impact our expectations for grid costs and emission rates out into the future. This talk provides an overview of where the grid is and where it is heading, and introduces new data sets under development at NREL that are aimed at enabling conversation between grid and built-environment planning and design.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa

We report the Eastern Africa region experiences frequent extreme precipitation events that can cause destruction of property and environment, and loss of lives. Thus, there is a need to understand how these events may change in the future and how well the global climate models that are used to make projections can simulate precipitation extremes in this region before they can be used in downscaling or flood and drought impact assessment studies. In this work, we evaluated the ability of sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to simulate present-day precipitation extremes over the Eastern Africa region during the two rainy seasons (March–May and September–November). We used nine extreme precipitation indices (including seven (one) indices of wet (dry) extremes) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The CMIP6 models were evaluated against two gridded observation datasets: Global Precipitation Climatology Project One-Degree Daily Dataset and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42. Three model performance metrics (percentage bias, normalized root-mean-square error, and pattern correlation coefficient) were employed to further assess the strengths and weakness of the models. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble mean generally provides a better representation of observed precipitation and related extremes compared to individual models when considering all metrics and seasons. Several consistent biases are evident across CMIP6 models, which tend to overestimate the total-wet day precipitation and consecutive wet days, and underestimate very wet days and maximum 5-day precipitation in both seasons. Furthermore, no single model consistently performs best, model performance varies with the season and index under consideration and is generally independent of horizontal resolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

SIMPLE-G: A multiscale framework for integration of economic and biophysical determinants of sustainability

We introduce SIMPLE-G, a Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment- Gridded version, which is a novel tool for evaluating sustainability policies in a global context while factoring in local heterogeneity in land and water resources and natural ecosystem services. This multi-scale model can provide boundary conditions for local decision makers, as well as capturing feedback from local policies to national and global scales. Additionally, to illustrate its value in environmental analysis, we provide two applications of the model. First, we quantify the local stresses on land and water resources due to global changes in population, income, and productivity. Second, we quantify the global impacts of local policy responses and adaptations to water scarcity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Resilience of DER Systems - A Simulation Assisted Optimization Approach

Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequency of major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology to optimize a behind-tlie-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain a site's critical loads during a pre-defined outage period. With the fixed system design, we then propose an outage simulation approach to estimate the resilience potential of the DER system to sustain loads beyond the fixed outage period - a yearlong resilience performance analysis. We apply statistical analysis to assess the system's resilience performance over a broader parametric problem space on an hourly, monthly, and yearly basis. We demonstrate the impact of the pre-defined outage period on the resilience performance through a case study. Results show that the probability of surviving a random outage of a given duration changes from 20% to 95% when the outage is modeled for a weekday instead of a weekend for the given load-profile.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Securing Inverter Communication: Proactive Intrusion Detection and Mitigation System to Tap, Analyze, and Act

The electric grid has undergone rapid, revolutionary changes in recent years; from the addition of advanced smart technologies to the growing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) to increased interconnectivity and communications. However, these added communications, access interfaces, and third-party software to enable autonomous control schemes and interconnectivity also expand the attack surface of the grid. To address the gap of DER cybersecurity and secure the grid-edge to motivate a holistic, defense-in-depth approach, a proactive intrusion detection and mitigation system (PIDMS) device was developed to secure PV smart inverter communications. The PIDMS was developed as a distributed, flexible bump-in-the-wire (BITW) solution for protecting PV smart inverter communications. Both cyber (network traffic) and physical (power system measurements) are processed using network intrusion monitoring tools and custom machinelearning algorithms for deep packet analysis and cyber-physical event correlation. The PIDMS not only detects abnormal events but also deploys mitigations to limit or eliminate system impact; the PIDMS communicates with peer PIDMSs at different locations using the MQTT protocol for increased situational awareness and alerting. The details of the PIDMS methodology and prototype development are detailed in this report as well as the evaluation results within a cyber-physical emulation environment and subsequent industry feedback.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Resilience of DER Systems - A Simulation Assisted Optimization Approach

Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequency of major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology to optimize a behind-the-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain a site's critical loads during a pre-defined outage period. With the fixed system design, we then propose an outage simulation approach to estimate the resilience potential of the DER system to sustain loads beyond the fixed outage period - a yearlong resilience performance analysis. We apply statistical analysis to assess the system's resilience performance over a broader parametric problem space on an hourly, monthly, and yearly basis. We demonstrate the impact of the pre-defined outage period on the resilience performance through a case study. Results show that the probability of surviving a random outage of a given duration changes from 20% to 95% when the outage is modeled for a weekday instead of a weekend for the given load-profile.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2012

Transient Side Load Analysis of Out-of-Round Film-Cooled Nozzle Extensions

There was interest in understanding the impact of out-of-round nozzle extension on the nozzle side load during transient startup operations. The out-of-round nozzle extension could be the result of asymmetric internal stresses, deformation induced by previous tests, and asymmetric loads induced by hardware attached to the nozzle. The objective of this study was therefore to computationally investigate the effect of out-of-round nozzle extension on the nozzle side loads during an engine startup transient. The rocket engine studied encompasses a regeneratively cooled chamber and nozzle, along with a film cooled nozzle extension. The computational methodology is based on an unstructured-grid, pressure-based computational fluid dynamics formulation, and transient inlet boundary flow properties derived from an engine system simulation. Six three-dimensional cases were performed with the out-of-roundness achieved by three different degrees of ovalization, elongated on lateral y and z axes: one slightly out-of-round, one more out-of-round, and one significantly out-of-round. The results show that the separation line jump was the primary source of the peak side loads. Comparing to the peak side load of the perfectly round nozzle, the peak side loads increased for the slightly and more ovalized nozzle extensions, and either increased or decreased for the two significantly ovalized nozzle extensions. A theory based on the counteraction of the flow destabilizing effect of an exacerbated asymmetrical flow caused by a lower degree of ovalization, and the flow stabilizing effect of a more symmetrical flow, created also by ovalization, is presented to explain the observations obtained in this effort.

Wang, Ten-See↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Role of Fuels in Transforming Energy End-Use in Buildings and Industrial Processes

This book examines what role fuels have in the transformation of end-use in buildings and industrial processes. Energy efficient technologies are necessary to lower the carbon footprint for a transition towards clean energy in a sustainable manner. Efficient utilization of primary energy resources including renewables to support the current and future energy needs while targeting grid resiliency, energy and environmental security, at an affordable cost is of significant value. Analysis of configurations consisting of heat pumps, fuel driven thermal providers and power systems is presented. Sensitivity of electrical grid's carbon intensity towards carbon footprint in comparison with fuel driven technologies is necessary to recognize the true value proposition of currently available energy solutions for different end consumers. Similarly, the role of low carbon, zero carbon, and carbon negative fuels such as power to gas, power to liquid, hydrogen, biogas, etc. in conjunction with polygeneration technologies are discussed. Transformation of the primary energy resources from conventional fossil fuels to renewable fuels or electricity will have a significant impact on the overall carbon footprint of various end use sectors, including buildings. Hence, this book also examines two different scenarios focused on sensitivity of the pace of decarbonization of electrical grid and fuel supply on operational energy related carbon emissions.

Cheekatamarla, Praveen↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Concentrating Solar Thermal Modeling Using System Advisor Model (SAM)

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technologies play a critical role in enabling dispatchable power and high-temperature industrial heat applications. Accurate and flexible modeling tools are essential for evaluating system performance, guiding technology research and development, and informing investment decisions. The National Laboratory of the Rockies's System Advisor Model (SAM) is a widely used techno-economic simulation platform for CST systems, providing detailed performance and financial modeling capabilities for multiple CST system configurations. SAM integrates physics-based performance models with financial analysis to simulate the behavior of complex energy systems under realistic operating conditions. For CST technologies (including tower, parabolic trough, and linear Fresnel), SAM enables hourly simulations using site-specific weather data that ensure feasible operating conditions and convergence of mass and energy between core system components (i.e., solar field, receiver, thermal energy storage, and power cycle). These capabilities allow researchers and developers to evaluate annual energy production, capacity factors, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and system dispatch strategies. A key advantage of SAM lies in its flexibility for parametric analysis and large-scale computational studies. Users can vary system design parameters such as heliostat field layout, receiver dimensions, thermal energy storage capacity, power block sizing, and installation cost assumptions to investigate their impact on system performance and financial metrics. When combined with automated scripting through LK, SDKTool, or Python interfaces, SAM enables high-throughput simulation workflows that support sensitivity analysis, technology benchmarking, and optimization studies. These approaches are particularly valuable for next-generation CST concepts, where design spaces are large and system interactions are complex. Another important capability of SAM is its support for dispatch optimization and thermal energy storage modeling, which are central to the value proposition of CST technologies. The ability to simulate integrated storage and flexible power generation allows researchers to explore strategies that maximize grid value, improve capacity utilization, and enhance integration with variable resources such as photovoltaic and wind generation. This poster will present an overview of SAM's thermal system modeling capabilities including concentrating solar. Additionally, we will highlight new feature developments including: 1) implementing Google's OR-Tools optimization platform for faster and more robust dispatch optimization, 2) developing a new power load following controller for modeling behind-the-meter applications, 3) enabling direct modeling of CSP-PV hybrid systems with the inclusion of battery storage, and 4) developing a multi-receiver falling particle Gen3 system model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗