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Results for “generalized linear model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2020

Fouling modeling and prediction approach for heat exchangers using deep learning

In this article, we develop a generalized and scalable statistical model for accurate prediction of fouling resistance using commonly measured parameters of industrial heat exchangers. This prediction model is based on deep learning where a scalable algorithmic architecture learns non-linear functional relationships between a set of target and predictor variables from large number of training samples. Here, the efficacy of this modeling approach is demonstrated for predicting fouling in an analytically modeled cross-flow heat exchanger, designed for waste heat recovery from flue-gas using room temperature water. The performance results of the trained models demonstrate that the mean absolute prediction errors are under 10 –4 KW –1 for flue-gas side, water side and overall fouling resistances. The coefficients of determination (R 2 ), which characterize the goodness of fit between the predictions and observed data, are over 99%. Even under varying levels of measurement noise in the inputs, we demonstrate that predictions over an ensemble of multiple neural networks achieves better accuracy and robustness to noise. We find that the proposed deep-learning fouling prediction framework learns to follow heat exchanger flow and heat transfer physics, which we confirm using locally interpretable model agnostic explanations around randomly selected operating points. Overall, we provide a robust algorithmic framework for fouling prediction that can be generalized and scaled to various types of industrial heat exchangers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2015

Analysis of JPSS J1 VIIRS Polarization Sensitivity Using the NIST T-SIRCUS

The polarization sensitivity of the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) J1 Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) measured pre-launch using a broadband source was observed to be larger than expected for many reflective bands. Ray trace modeling predicted that the observed polarization sensitivity was the result of larger diattenuation at the edges of the focal plane filter spectral bandpass. Additional ground measurements were performed using a monochromatic source (the NIST T-SIRCUS) to input linearly polarized light at a number of wavelengths across the bandpass of two VIIRS spectral bands and two scan angles. This work describes the data processing, analysis, and results derived from the T-SIRCUS measurements, comparing them with broadband measurements. Results have shown that the observed degree of linear polarization, when weighted by the sensor's spectral response function, is generally larger on the edges and smaller in the center of the spectral bandpass, as predicted. However, phase angle changes in the center of the bandpass differ between model and measurement. Integration of the monochromatic polarization sensitivity over wavelength produced results consistent with the broadband source measurements, for all cases considered.

reflective bands↗

NASA NTRS1972

The Backup-Gilbert method and its application to the electrical conductivity problem

The theory of Backus and Gilbert gives a technique for solving the general linear inverse problem. Observational error and lack of data are shown to reduce the reliability of the solution in different ways: the former introduces statistical uncertainties in the model, while the latter smooths out the detail. Precision can be improved by sacrificing resolving power, and vice versa, so that some compromise may be made between the two in choosing the best model. Nonlinear inverse problems can be brought into the domain of the theory by linearizing about a typical solution. The inverse problem of electrical conductivity in the mantle is used to illustrate the Backus-Gilbert technique; an example of the tradeoff diagram is given.

Parker, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1977

An implicit-iterative solution of the heat conduction equation with a radiation boundary condition

For the problem of predicting one-dimensional heat transfer between conducting and radiating mediums by an implicit finite difference method, four different formulations were used to approximate the surface radiation boundary condition while retaining an implicit formulation for the interior temperature nodes. These formulations are an explicit boundary condition, a linearized boundary condition, an iterative boundary condition, and a semi-iterative boundary method. The results of these methods in predicting surface temperature on the space shuttle orbiter thermal protection system model under a variety of heating rates were compared. The iterative technique caused the surface temperature to be bounded at each step. While the linearized and explicit methods were generally more efficient, the iterative and semi-iterative techniques provided a realistic surface temperature response without requiring step size control techniques.

Williams, S. D.↗

NASA NTRS1978

The kinetic effects of Alfven wave pressure in the solar wind

The results of a kinetic model for the radial evolution of the proton component of the solar wind in the presence of Alfven waves are presented. The calculation is based on general quasi-linear equations developed to describe the temporal and spatial evolution of the ion distribution functions of a multispecies plasma in presence of waves, using a short wavelength expansion. These equations include new wave-particle interaction terms arising from temporal and spatial inhomogeneities in the plasma. Numerical solutions are obtained of these equations specialized to the case of Alfven waves in a spherically symmetric solar wind. The Alfven wave effects on the proton distribution function vary strongly in velocity space. Protons with small transverse velocities are primarily decelerated with respect to the wave rest frame. This deceleration becomes less important with increasing transverse velocity, as wave induced diffusion to larger transverse velocity becomes the dominant effect. The competition of these effects results in interesting distortions of evolving proton distribution functions which give rise the wave acceleration well known from fluid theory.

Goodrich, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS1979

SCI Identification (SCIDNT) program user's guide

The computer program Linear SCIDNT which evaluates rotorcraft stability and control coefficients from flight or wind tunnel test data is described. It implements the maximum likelihood method to maximize the likelihood function of the parameters based on measured input/output time histories. Linear SCIDNT may be applied to systems modeled by linear constant-coefficient differential equations. This restriction in scope allows the application of several analytical results which simplify the computation and improve its efficiency over the general nonlinear case.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1984

Determination of the key parameters affecting historic communications satellite trends

Data representing 13 series of commercial communications satellites procured between 1968 and 1982 were analyzed to determine the factors that have contributed to the general reduction over time of the per circuit cost of communications satellites. The model by which the data were analyzed was derived from a general telecommunications application and modified to be more directly applicable for communications satellites. In this model satellite mass, bandwidth-years, and technological change were the variable parameters. A linear, least squares, multiple regression routine was used to obtain the measure of significance of the model. Correlation was measured by coefficient of determination (R super 2) and t-statistic. The results showed that no correlation could be established with satellite mass. Bandwidth-year however, did show a significant correlation. Technological change in the bandwidth-year case was a significant factor in the model. This analysis and the conclusions derived are based on mature technologies, i.e., satellite designs that are evolutions of earlier designs rather than the first of a new generation. The findings, therefore, are appropriate to future satellites only if they are a continuation of design evolution.

Namkoong, D.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Remarks on the stability analysis of reactive flows

A simple model of compressible reacting flow is studied. First, a dispersion relation is derived for the linearized problem making a distinction between frozen and equilibrium sound speed. Second, the stability of the Von Neumann-Richtmyer scheme applied to this model is studied. A natural generalization of the C.F.L. condition is found.

Scheurer, B.↗

NASA NTRS1988

NASA standard: Trend analysis techniques

This Standard presents descriptive and analytical techniques for NASA trend analysis applications. Trend analysis is applicable in all organizational elements of NASA connected with, or supporting, developmental/operational programs. Use of this Standard is not mandatory; however, it should be consulted for any data analysis activity requiring the identification or interpretation of trends. Trend Analysis is neither a precise term nor a circumscribed methodology, but rather connotes, generally, quantitative analysis of time-series data. For NASA activities, the appropriate and applicable techniques include descriptive and graphical statistics, and the fitting or modeling of data by linear, quadratic, and exponential models. Usually, but not always, the data is time-series in nature. Concepts such as autocorrelation and techniques such as Box-Jenkins time-series analysis would only rarely apply and are not included in this Standard. The document presents the basic ideas needed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of trends, together with relevant examples. A list of references provides additional sources of information.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1990

Finite-difference models of ordinary differential equations - Influence of denominator functions

This paper discusses the influence on the solutions of finite-difference schemes of using a variety of denominator functions in the discrete modeling of the derivative for any ordinary differential equation. The results obtained are a consequence of using a generalized definition of the first derivative. A particular example of the linear decay equation is used to illustrate in detail the various solution possibilities that can occur.

Mickens, Ronald E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Preconditioned conjugate gradient methods for the compressible Navier-Stokes equations

The compressible Navier-Stokes equations are solved for a variety of two-dimensional inviscid and viscous problems by preconditioned conjugate gradient-like algorithms. Roe's flux difference splitting technique is used to discretize the inviscid fluxes. The viscous terms are discretized by using central differences. An algebraic turbulence model is also incorporated. The system of linear equations which arises out of the linearization of a fully implicit scheme is solved iteratively by the well known methods of GMRES (Generalized Minimum Residual technique) and Chebyschev iteration. Incomplete LU factorization and block diagonal factorization are used as preconditioners. The resulting algorithm is competitive with the best current schemes, but has wide applications in parallel computing and unstructured mesh computations.

Venkatakrishnan, V.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Development of an integrated aeroservoelastic analysis program and correlation with test data

The details and results are presented of the general-purpose finite element STructural Analysis RoutineS (STARS) to perform a complete linear aeroelastic and aeroservoelastic analysis. The earlier version of the STARS computer program enabled effective finite element modeling as well as static, vibration, buckling, and dynamic response of damped and undamped systems, including those with pre-stressed and spinning structures. Additions to the STARS program include aeroelastic modeling for flutter and divergence solutions, and hybrid control system augmentation for aeroservoelastic analysis. Numerical results of the X-29A aircraft pertaining to vibration, flutter-divergence, and open- and closed-loop aeroservoelastic controls analysis are compared to ground vibration, wind-tunnel, and flight-test results. The open- and closed-loop aeroservoelastic control analyses are based on a hybrid formulation representing the interaction of structural, aerodynamic, and flight-control dynamics.

Gupta, K. K.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A spectral formalism for computing three-dimensional deformations due to surface loads. 2: Present-day glacial isostatic adjustment

Using a spherically symmetric, self-gravitating, linear viscoelastic Earth model, we predict present-day three-dimensional surface deformation rates and baseline evolutions arising as a consequence of the late Pleistocene glacial cycles. In general, we use realistic models for the space-time geometry of the final late Pleistocene deglaciation event and incorporate a gravitationally self-consistent ocean meltwater redistribution. The predictions of horizontal velocity presented differ significantly, in both their amplitude and their spatial variation, from those presented in earlier analysis of others which adopted simplified models of both the late Pleistocene ice history and the Earth rheology. An important characteristic of our predicted velocity fields is that the melting of the Laurentide ice sheet over Canada is capable of contributing appreciably to the adjustment in Europe. The sensitivity of the predictions to variations in mantle rheology is investigated by considering a number of different Earth models, and by computing appropriate Frechet kernels. These calculations suggest that the sensitivity of the deformations to the Earth's rheology is significant and strongly dependent on the location of the site relative to the ancient ice sheet. The effects on the predictions of three-dimensional deformation rates of altering the ice history or adopting approximate models for the ocean meltwater redistribution have also been considered and found to be important (the former especially so). Finally, for a suite of Earth models we provide predictions of the velocity of a number of baselines in North America and Europe. We find that, in general, both radial and tangential motions contribute significantly to baseline length changes, and that these contributions are a strong function of the Earth model. We have, furthermore, found a set of Earth models which, together with the ICE-3G deglaciation chronology, produce predictions of baseline length changes that are consistent with very long baseline interferometry measurements of baselines within Europe.

Mitrovica, J. X.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Nonlinear Analysis of the Space Shuttle Superlightweight LO2 Tank: Bahavior Under Booster Ascent Loads - Part 1

Results of linear bifurcation and nonlinear analyses of the Space Shuttle superlightweight (SLWT) external liquid-oxygen (LO2) tank for an important early booster ascent loading condition are presented. These results for thin-walled linear elastic shells that are subjected to combined mechanical and thermal loads illustrate an important type of response mode that may be encountered in the design of other liquid-fuel launch vehicles. Linear bifurcation analyses are presented that predict several nearly equal eigenvalues that correspond to local buckling modes in the forward ogive section of the LO2 tank. In contrast, the nonlinear response phenomenon is shown to consist of short-wavelength bending deformations in the forward ogive and barrel sections of the LO2 tank that growing amplitude in a stable manner increasing load. Imperfection sensitivity analyses are presented that show that the presence of several nearly equal eigenvalues does not lead to a premature general instability mode for the forward ogive section. For the linear bifurcation and nonlinear analyses, the results show that accurate predictions of the response of the shield generally require a large-scale, high-fidelity finite-element model. Results are also presented that show that the SLWT LO2 tank can support loads in excess of approximately 2.6 times the values of the operational loads considered.

Young, Richard D.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Improving Fidelity of Launch Vehicle Liftoff Acoustic Simulations

Launch vehicles experience high acoustic loads during ignition and liftoff affected by the interaction of rocket plume generated acoustic waves with launch pad structures. Application of highly parallelized Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis tools optimized for application on the NAS computer systems such as the Loci/CHEM program now enable simulation of time-accurate, turbulent, multi-species plume formation and interaction with launch pad geometry and capture the generation of acoustic noise at the source regions in the plume shear layers and impingement regions. These CFD solvers are robust in capturing the acoustic fluctuations, but they are too dissipative to accurately resolve the propagation of the acoustic waves throughout the launch environment domain along the vehicle. A hybrid Computational Fluid Dynamics and Computational Aero-Acoustics (CFD/CAA) modeling framework has been developed to improve such liftoff acoustic environment predictions. The framework combines the existing highly-scalable NASA production CFD code, Loci/CHEM, with a high-order accurate discontinuous Galerkin (DG) solver, Loci/THRUST, developed in the same computational framework. Loci/THRUST employs a low dissipation, high-order, unstructured DG method to accurately propagate acoustic waves away from the source regions across large distances. The DG solver is currently capable of solving up to 4th order solutions for non-linear, conservative acoustic field propagation. Higher order boundary conditions are implemented to accurately model the reflection and refraction of acoustic waves on launch pad components. The DG solver accepts generalized unstructured meshes, enabling efficient application of common mesh generation tools for CHEM and THRUST simulations. The DG solution is coupled with the CFD solution at interface boundaries placed near the CFD acoustic source regions. Both simulations are executed simultaneously with coordinated boundary condition data exchange.

Liever, Peter↗

DOE OSTI2021

Three-state harmonic models for photoinduced charge transfer

A widely used strategy for simulating the charge transfer between donor and acceptor electronic states in an all-atom anharmonic condensedphase system is based on invoking linear response theory to describe the system in terms of an effective spin-boson model Hamiltonian. Extending this strategy to photoinduced charge transfer processes requires also taking into consideration the ground electronic state in addition to the excited donor and acceptor electronic states. In this paper, we revisit the problem of describing such nonequilibrium processes in terms of an effective three-state harmonic model. We do so within the framework of nonequilibrium Fermi’s golden rule (NE-FGR) in the context of photoinduced charge transfer in the carotenoid–porphyrin–C 60 (CPC 60 ) molecular triad dissolved in explicit tetrahydrofuran (THF). To this end, we consider different ways for obtaining a three-state harmonic model from the equilibrium autocorrelation functions of the donor–acceptor, donor–ground, and acceptor–ground energy gaps, as obtained from all-atom molecular dynamics simulations of the CPC 60 /THF system. The quantum-mechanically exact time-dependent NE-FGR rate coefficients for two different charge transfer processes in two different triad conformations are then calculated using the effective three-state model Hamiltonians as well as a hierarchy of more approximate expressions that lead to the instantaneous Marcus theory limit. Our results show that the photoinduced charge transfer in CPC 60 /THF can be described accurately by the effective harmonic three-state models and that nuclear quantum effects are small in this system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the Trustworthiness of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) Methods Applied to Regression Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice Motion

Abstract Recent advances in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods show promise for understanding predictions made by machine learning (ML) models. XAI explains how the input features are relevant or important for the model predictions. We train linear regression (LR) and convolutional neural network (CNN) models to make 1-day predictions of sea ice velocity in the Arctic from inputs of present-day wind velocity and previous-day ice velocity and concentration. We apply XAI methods to the CNN and compare explanations to variance explained by LR. We confirm the feasibility of using a novel XAI method [i.e., global layerwise relevance propagation (LRP)] to understand ML model predictions of sea ice motion by comparing it to established techniques. We investigate a suite of linear, perturbation-based, and propagation-based XAI methods in both local and global forms. Outputs from different explainability methods are generally consistent in showing that wind speed is the input feature with the highest contribution to ML predictions of ice motion, and we discuss inconsistencies in the spatial variability of the explanations. Additionally, we show that the CNN relies on both linear and nonlinear relationships between the inputs and uses nonlocal information to make predictions. LRP shows that wind speed over land is highly relevant for predicting ice motion offshore. This provides a framework to show how knowledge of environmental variables (i.e., wind) on land could be useful for predicting other properties (i.e., sea ice velocity) elsewhere. Significance Statement Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is useful for understanding predictions made by machine learning models. Our research establishes trustability in a novel implementation of an explainable AI method known as layerwise relevance propagation for Earth science applications. To do this, we provide a comparative evaluation of a suite of explainable AI methods applied to machine learning models that make 1-day predictions of Arctic sea ice velocity. We use explainable AI outputs to understand how the input features are used by the machine learning to predict ice motion. Additionally, we show that a convolutional neural network uses nonlinear and nonlocal information in making its predictions. We take advantage of the nonlocality to investigate the extent to which knowledge of wind on land is useful for predicting sea ice velocity elsewhere.

Hoffman, Lauren [Scripps Institution of Oceanograp↗

NASA NTRS2000

Parameterization of Model Validating Sets for Uncertainty Bound Optimizations

Given measurement data, a nominal model and a linear fractional transformation uncertainty structure with an allowance on unknown but bounded exogenous disturbances, easily computable tests for the existence of a model validating uncertainty set are given. Under mild conditions, these tests are necessary and sufficient for the case of complex, nonrepeated, block-diagonal structure. For the more general case which includes repeated and/or real scalar uncertainties, the tests are only necessary but become sufficient if a collinearity condition is also satisfied. With the satisfaction of these tests, it is shown that a parameterization of all model validating sets of plant models is possible. The new parameterization is used as a basis for a systematic way to construct or perform uncertainty tradeoff with model validating uncertainty sets which have specific linear fractional transformation structure for use in robust control design and analysis. An illustrative example which includes a comparison of candidate model validating sets is given.

Lim, K. B.↗