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At least 541 records · Page 30

Typical and extreme weather datasets for studying the resilience of buildings to climate change and heatwaves

We present unprecedented datasets of current and future projected weather files for building simulations in 15 major cities distributed across 10 climate zones worldwide. The datasets include ambient air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, direct and diffuse solar irradiance, and wind speed at hourly resolution, which are essential climate elements needed to undertake building simulations. The datasets contain typical and extreme weather years in the EnergyPlus weather file (EPW) format and multiyear projections in comma-separated value (CSV) format for three periods: historical (2001–2020), future mid-term (2041–2060), and future long-term (2081–2100). The datasets were generated from projections of one regional climate model, which were bias-corrected using multiyear observational data for each city. The methodology used makes the datasets among the first to incorporate complex changes in the future climate for the frequency, duration, and magnitude of extreme temperatures. These datasets, created within the IEA EBC Annex 80 “Resilient Cooling for Buildings”, are ready to be used for different types of building adaptation and resilience studies to climate change and heatwaves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Review of solar cell temperature coefficients for space

Energy conversion efficiency is an important parameter for solar cells, and well reported in the literature. However, solar cells heat up in sunlight, and the efficiency decreases. The temperature coefficient of the conversion efficiency is thus also extremely important, especially in mission modeling, but is much less well reported. It is of value to have a table which compiles into a single document values of temperature coefficients reported in the literature. In addition to modeling performance of solar cells in Earth orbit, where operating temperatures may range from about 20 C to as high as 85 C, it is of interest to model solar cells for several other recently proposed missions. These include use for the surface of Mars, for solar electric propulsion missions that may range from Venus to the Asteroid belt, and for laser-photovoltaic power that may involve laser intensities equivalent several suns. For all of these applications, variations in operating temperature away from the nominal test conditions result in significant changes in operating performance. In general the efficiency change with temperature is non-linear, however, in the range from negative 100 C through room temperature to a few hundred degrees C, efficiency is usually quite well modeled as a linear function of temperature (except for a few unusual cell types, such as amorphous silicon, and for extremely low bandgap cells, such as InGaAs).

Landis, Geoffrey A.↗

Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models

We evaluated the implications of different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of microsimulation decision models (DMs) and quantified the value of such uncertainty in decision making. We calibrated the natural history model of CRC to simulated epidemiological data with different degrees of uncertainty and obtained the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) on all the model parameters with different characterizations of the uncertainty of the calibrated parameters. We estimated the value of uncertainty of the various characterizations with a value of information analysis. We conducted all analyses using high-performance computing resources running the Extreme-scale Model Exploration with Swift (EMEWS) framework. The posterior distribution had a high correlation among some parameters. The parameters of the Weibull hazard function for the age of onset of adenomas had the highest posterior correlation of -0.958. When comparing full posterior distributions and the maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the calibrated parameters, there is little difference in the spread of the distribution of the CEA outcomes with a similar expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of $\$$653 and $\$$685, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $\$$66,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Ignoring correlation on the calibrated parameters’ posterior distribution produced the broadest distribution of CEA outcomes and the highest EVPI of $\$$809 at the same WTP threshold. Different characterizations of the uncertainty of calibrated parameters affect the expected value of eliminating parametric uncertainty on the CEA. Ignoring inherent correlation among calibrated parameters on a PSA overestimates the value of uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Nonradiative Properties of Self–Trapped Holes in Ultra–Wide Bandgap Gallium Oxide Film

The photoluminescence (PL) of self-trapped holes (STH) in ultra-wide bandgap β-Ga 2 O 3 is commonly its most dominant light emission and is an inherent property. Thus, gaining knowledge of the crystal dynamics that impact the PL properties is vital to sensor and other technologies. The PL, Raman-phonons, and their interactions are studied at an extreme temperature range of 77–622 K. The PL is studied up to the bandgap value of ≈5 eV. It is found that the high-energy Raman modes provide a major route to the nonradiative process of the PL via STH–phonon interaction with an activation energy of 72 meV. This dynamic is modeled with the configurational coordinate scheme at the strong phonon coupling limit. The exceptionally broad Gaussian PL linewidth manifests this coupling. The weak temperature response of the PL energy peak position indicates that the STH has characteristics of a deep-level defect. This contrasts with the large redshift of ≈220 meV of the optical gap of the film, ascertained from transmission. Unlike the temperature response of the high-energy phonons, the behavior of the low-energy phonons is found to follow the Bose–Einstein population increase, indicating no strong interaction with the STH.

Raman↗

A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall dataset

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 40,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with the observed spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale TC statistics. Specifically, along the coast, spatial variations in TC crossing probability and extreme winds upon landfall are well-reproduced by RAFT with R-squared values of 0.81 and 0.73, respectively. In summary, the synthetic TC database constructed with RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for the robust assessment of North Atlantic TC wind and rainfall risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring Fabrication of Ultra-low Absorption, Multilayer, Hafnium High Reflectors

Ultra-low absorption, high damage threshold coatings are critical for the advancement of the high power CW laser technologies, and in most cases, are a limiting factor for the output power. Since high power CW laser systems enable extremely high power irradiances, when the light is incident on an HR mirror, part of the energy is absorbed and converted into heat, which can have many detrimental side effects. The worst-case scenarios are optical distortion and laser-induced damage. These optics must operate reliably with irradiances of 100's kW/cm 2 to MW/cm 2 . The highest pulsed laser damage threshold high reflectors are consistently fabricated with hafnia material. However, hafnia is not the material of choice for high power CW laser systems because of very high absorption and scatter properties, factors of >100x higher than tantala-silica, due to its poly crystalline nature. This study focuses on CW laser use applications, where the coatings’ laser damage resistance is largely limited by the inherent absorption of the coating materials. The goal is to study the feasibility of utilizing a “composite” hafnium-silica and a “doped” hafnia-silica target materials to prohibit crystallization. The results from the study were extremely successful. Hafnia high reflectors coatings generated from this study exhibited one micron absorption values of approximately 1 ppm, which are the lowest reported values to date.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Electrical properties of lunar soil dependence on frequency, temperature and moisture.

It was found that the dielectric constant and loss tangent of lunar soil samples in the range from 100 Hz to 1 MHz are not strongly dependent on frequency provided care is taken to avoid exposure of the sample to atmospheric air containing moisture. The loss tangent value obtained is lower by nearly a factor 10 than any previously reported value. The measurement data imply that the surface layers of the moon are probably extremely transparent to radiowaves.

Strangway, D. W.↗

A determination of the lunar moment of inertia

An estimate of the second zonal coefficient of the spherical-harmonic representation of the lunar gravitational field has been obtained from an analysis of particular orbital-element variations of the Explorer 35 and Explorer 49 spacecraft. Data from these spacecraft were used because the orbital configurations resulted in variations of the longitude of periapse and node which were, to first order, dependent only on the even zonal harmonics. The data time span for each satellite was extremely long: 2138 days for Explorer 35 and 230 days for Explorer 49. The value of the harmonic coefficient is determined and used to obtain a value of the lunar moment of inertia.

Gapcynski, J. P.↗

TNT equivalency of M10 propellant

Peak, side-on blast overpressure and scaled, positive impulse have been measured for M10 single-perforated propellant, web size 0.018 inches, using configurations that simulate the handling of bulk material during processing and shipment. Quantities of 11.34, 22.7, 45.4, and 65.8 kg were tested in orthorhombic shipping containers and fiberboard boxes. High explosive equivalency values for each test series were obtained as a function of scaled distance by comparison to known pressure, arrival time and impulse characteristics for hemispherical TNT surface bursts. The equivalencies were found to depend significantly on scaled distance, with higher values of 150-100 percent (pressure) and 350-125 percent (positive impulse) for the extremes within the range from 1.19 to 3.57 m/cube root of kg. Equivalencies as low as 60-140 percent (pressure) and 30-75 percent (positive impulse) were obtained in the range of 7.14 to 15.8 m/cube root of kg. Within experimental error, both peak pressure and positive impulse scaled as a function of charge weight for all quantities tested in the orthorhombic configuration.

Mcintyre, F. L.↗

Application of finite element and remeshing technique to shock interference on a cylindrical leading edge

The problem of planar oblique shock impingement on a cylindrical leading edge in hypersonic flow is modeled using a Galerkin-Runge Kutta finite element method. The method utilizes a four stage Runge-Kutta time stepping scheme to solve the compressible Euler equations. Freestream Mach numbers of 6.5, 8.0 and 16.0 are studied. The computed surface pressure distributions consistently agree well with available experimental data. The peak pressure amplification ranges from 5.45 at M = 6.5 to approximately 17.0 at M = 16.0. Stagnation point heat transfer rate amplifications are calculated from the inviscid solution using the method of Fay and Riddell. The value and wall location of the peak pressure and heat transfer rate amplifications are extremely sensitive to the location of the impinging shock/bow shock intersection point.

Stewart, James R.↗

System-state and operating condition sensitive control method and apparatus for electric power delivery systems

This invention provides a method and apparatus for determining a precise switching sequence for the power switching elements of electric power delivery systems of the on-off switching type and which enables extremely fast transient response, precise regulation and highly stable operation. The control utilizes the values of the power delivery system power handling network components, a desired output characteristic, a system timing parameter, and the externally imposed operating conditions to determine where steady state operations should be in order to yield desired output characteristics for the given system specifications. The actual state of the power delivery system is continuously monitored and compared to a state-space boundary which is derived from the desired equilibrium condition, and from the information obtained from this comparison, the system is moved to the desired equilibrium condition in one cycle of switching control. Since the controller continuously monitors the power delivery system's externally imposed operating conditions, a change in the conditions is immediately sensed and a new equilibrium condition is determined and achieved, again in a single cycle of switching control.

Burns, III, William Wesley↗

Recalibration of the Shear Stress Transport Model to Improve Calculation of Shock Separated Flows

The Menter Shear Stress Transport (SST) k . turbulence model is one of the most widely used two-equation Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes turbulence models for aerodynamic analyses. The model extends Menter s baseline (BSL) model to include a limiter that prevents the calculated turbulent shear stress from exceeding a prescribed fraction of the turbulent kinetic energy via a proportionality constant, a1, set to 0.31. Compared to other turbulence models, the SST model yields superior predictions of mild adverse pressure gradient flows including those with small separations. In shock - boundary layer interaction regions, the SST model produces separations that are too large while the BSL model is on the other extreme, predicting separations that are too small. In this paper, changing a1 to a value near 0.355 is shown to significantly improve predictions of shock separated flows. Several cases are examined computationally and experimental data is also considered to justify raising the value of a1 used for shock separated flows.

Georgiadis, Nicholas J.↗

Thermal conductivity in vibrationally excited gases.

Comparisons between experimental and theoretical values of the thermal conductivity for a series of nonpolar polyatomic gases show large discrepancies at higher temperatures where the vibrational contribution becomes increasingly important. Examination of various theoretical approaches indicates that the discrepancies can be attributed to approximating the coefficient characterizing the diffusion of vibrational energy, D sub vib, by the self-diffusion coefficient. The present theories cannot accurately predict D sub vib, and its measurement is extremely difficult. Consequently, the approach adopted by the author is to obtain D sub vib by using experimental values of the thermal conductivity. An attempt is made to correlate these values of D sub vib with vibrational relaxation time, so that values of D sub vib can be obtained for all nonpolar polyatomic gases.

Ahtye, W. F.↗

Implementation and Evaluation of Physics-Driven Dynamic Entrainment-Mixing Parameterization in a Climate Model and Its Impact on Low-Cloud Simulation

The turbulent entrainment-mixing process in the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2) is assumed to follow the extremely inhomogeneous entrainment-mixing. However, different entrainment-mixing scenarios can occur in real clouds. To address this deficiency, a unifying parameterization that represents different entrainment-mixing processes is implemented and evaluated in CESM1.2. The results indicate that the homogeneous mixing degree values simulated by the new parameterization in CESM1.2 are predominantly greater than 50%, suggesting a tendency toward homogeneous mixing. Compared to the extremely inhomogeneous mixing mechanism, the new parameterization increases the cloud droplet number concentration (Nc). More importantly, the new parameterization improves low-cloud fraction (CLDLOW) simulation in Northwest Pacific (NWP) and Southeast Pacific (SEP) regions, with relative improvements of 2.95% and 4.17%, respectively. Furthermore, the improvements reach up to 44.6% and 16.2% in the NWP and SEP regions, respectively, when considering the relationship between N c and CLDLOW. Further analysis reveals that the new parameterization enhances cloud optical depth, longwave radiative cooling effect, net condensation rate, cloud water mixing ratio, lower-troposphere stability, and CLDLOW by increasing N c . Additionally, these results underscore the importance of improving entrainment-mixing parameterization in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stormtime transport of ring current and radiation belt ions

This is an investigation of stormtime particle transport that leads to formation of the ring current. Our method is to trace the guiding-center motion of representative ions (having selected first adiabatic invariants mu) in response to model substorm-associated impulses in the convection electric field. We compare our simulation results qualitatively with existing analytically tractable idealizations of particle transport (direct convective access and radial diffusion) in order to assess the limits of validity of these approximations. For mu approximately less than 10 MeV/G (E approximately less than 10 keV at L equivalent to 3) the ion drift period on the final (ring-current) drift shell of interest (L equivalent to 3) exceeds the duration of the main phase of our model storm, and we find that the transport of ions to this drift shell is appropriately idealized as direct convective access, typically from open drift paths. Ion transport to a final closed drift path from an open (plasma-sheet) drift trajectory is possible for those portions of that drift path that lie outside the mean stormtime separatrix between closed and open drift trajectories, For mu approximately 10-25 MeV/G (110 keV approximately less than E approximately less than 280 keV at L equivalent to 3) the drift period at L equivalent to 3 is comparable to the postulated 3-hr duration of the storm, and the mode of transport is transitional between direct convective access and transport that resembles radial diffusion. (This particle population is transitional between the ring current and radiation belt). For mu approximately greater than 25 MeV/G (radiation-belt ions having E approximately greater than 280 keV at L equivalent to 3) the ion drift period is considerably shorter than the main phase of a typical storm, and ions gain access to the ring-current region essentially via radial diffusion. By computing the mean and mean-square cumulative changes in 1/L among (in this case) 12 representative ions equally spaced in drift time around the steady-state drift shell of interest (L equivalent to 3), we have estimated (from both our forward and our time-reversed simulations) the time-integrated radial-diffusion coefficients D(sup sim)(sub LL) for particles having selected values of mu approximately greater than 15 MeV/G. The results agree surprisingly well with the predictions (D(sup ql)(sub LL)) of quasilinear radial diffusion theory, despite the rather brief duration (approximately 3 hrs) of our model storm and despite the extreme variability (with frequency) of the spectral-density function that characterizes the applied electric field during our model storm. As expected, the values of D(sup sim)(sub LL) deduced (respectively) from our forward and time-reversed simulations agree even better with each other and with D(sup sim)(sub LL) when the impulse amplitudes which characterize the individual substorms of our model storm are systematically reduced.

Chen, Margaret W.↗

Initial Delayed Critical Configuration of SHEBA I and Subcritical Measurements by Californium Source-Driven Noise Analysis

In September 1980, the initial delayed critical configuration of the Solution High-Energy Burst Assembly (SHEBA I) was assembled, and the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) staff performed near critical and subcritical measurements using the californium source-driven noise analysis (CSDNA) method at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Critical Experiments Facility. An unreflected 56 cm outside diameter stainless-steel cylindrical tank was partially filled with uranyl fluoride solution (235U enrichment was 4.95 wt %) until delayed criticality was achieved. Then, measurements were performed for various fuel solution heights from delayed critical to 60% of the height required for delayed criticality. The stainless-steel tank had an inside diameter of 54.6 cm and a height of 105 cm and was partially (20–36.5 cm) filled with an aqueous solution of uranyl fluoride (with a density of 2.162 g/cm 3 ). The density of the uranium in solution was 1.042 g/cm 3 , and the solution had a H/U atomic ratio of 20.43. The tank had a 6.35 mm wall thickness and an axial reentrant tube with an inside diameter of 6.02 cm and wall thickness of 0.165 cm. The tank was essentially unreflected on the top and sides because it was in a thin metal shed. The reactivity of the near–delayed critical configuration was −10.4 cents, which corresponds to a k eff value of 0.99922. In addition to the CSDNA measurements, the prompt neutron decay constants were determined from break frequency noise analysis (BNFA) measurements. The subcritical neutron multiplication factors from CSDNA and BFNA compared extremely well. These data can be used as the basis of International Nuclear Criticality Safety Evaluation benchmark for the near-critical configuration, and the k eff values at various subcritical configurations can be used as subcritical benchmarks. Furthermore, the measured prompt neutron decay constants can be used as reactor physics benchmarks. This report documents the experimental information for the measurements performed so that, at a later date, researchers could perform the required uncertainty and calculational analyses and documentation to use these data for an International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Program (ICSBEP) or Nuclear Energy Agency benchmarks. The measured prompt neutron decay constants can be used as the basis of a benchmark for the International Reactor Physics Evaluation Program (IRPhEP). The data from these measurements are available from the ORNL Records Management Services Department, and the logbook is available from ICSBEP at Idaho National Laboratory.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Evaluating and Exploring Extreme Precipitation in CHIRPS3, CHIMES, and the Climate Hazards Station Database

Between 2015 and 2019, the impacts and losses associated with droughts, floods, and hurricanes surged through the interaction of increasing exposure and more extreme weather and climate (Funk 2021). In 2020, the Aon-Benfield Reinsurance Company reported that cyclones, floods, and droughts resulted in $165 billion (USD) in losses. For 2020, EM-DAT lists 363 flood, landslide, storm, and drought events impacting some 98 million people. As hazards mount, models indicate more variable precipitation, and observations indicate increasing extremes in humid regions, yet the small number of available gauge observations is declining. In this talk we briefly introduce two new resources: version 3 of the 1981-near present Climate Hazards center Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS3) archive, and the 2000-near present Climate Hazards IMErg with Stations archive (CHIMES). The satellite-only CHIRP3 and CHIME components are based, respectively, on geostationary thermal infrared Cold Cloud Duration (CCD) values and the NASA GPM IMERGlate product. These archives benefit from thousands of station observations. In addition to standard global sources, the Climate Hazards station database includes about 5,000 additional stations in humid tropical and sub-tropical areas associated with likely increases in extreme rainfall. While effectively monitoring extreme precipitation is important to humanitarian agencies like FEWS NET, and to hydrologic modeling applications (a, b), evaluations of the widely used CHIRPS2 product indicate a propensity to underestimate extremes. Here, we explain the source of this problem. Then, focusing on pentad totals in 12 well-gauged regions, we use the high-quality gauge-based REGEN dataset to show that CHIRP3 and CHIME perform substantially better than CHIRP2. We examine trends in extremes in these validation regions, comparing REGEN results with values from the satellite-only CHIRP2, CHIRP3, CHIME and the gauge-enhanced CHIRP2, CHIRP3, CHIME. Trends in dry and humid regions are contrasted and compared. We conclude with global evaluations of the pentad CHIRP3, CHIRPS3, CHIME, CHIMES, and Climate Hazards station database products. How does the performance of the shorter period of record CHIME compare with CHIRP3? We anticipate that the sophisticated microwave-based IMERGlate inputs into CHIME will perform better. Where do we see the largest increases in extremes in these products? How well might CHIRPS3 and CHIMES perform in the context of humanitarian assistance efforts?

C Funk↗

A Polymer Canvas with the Stiffness of the Bone Matrix to Study and Control Mesenchymal Stem Cell Response

Reproducing in vitro the complex multiscale physical features of human tissues creates novel biomedical opportunities and fundamental understanding of cell–environment interfaces and interactions. While stiffness has been recognized as a key driver of cell behavior, systematic studies on the role of stiffness have been limited to values in the KPa–MPa range, significantly below the stiffness of bone. Here, in this work, a platform enabling the tuning of the stiffness of a biocompatible polymeric interface up to values characteristic of human bone is reported, which are in the GPa range, by using extremely thin polymer films on glass and cross-linking the films using ultraviolet (UV) light irradiation. It is shown that a higher stiffness is related to better adhesion, proliferation, and osteogenic differentiation, and that it is possible to switch on/off cell attachment and growth by solely tuning the stiffness of the interface, without any surface chemistry or topography modification. Since the stiffness is tuned directly by UV irradiation, this platform is ideal for rapid and simple fabrication of stiffness patterns and gradients, thus representing an innovative tool for combinatorial studies of the synergistic effect of tissue environmental cues on cell behavior, and creates new opportunities for next-generation biosensors, single-cell patterning, and lab-on-a-chip devices.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗