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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Development of an Amine Oxide Polyzwitterion Brush Martini Model with Polarizable Water and Ions

Abstract In order to accurately simulate the fouling process of proteins onto polyzwitterion brushes, models that accurately capture the hydration properties and chain conformations of such brushes must first be established. We developed a Martini coarse-grained (CG) model for amine oxide polyzwitterion (PNOMA) brushes, a promising class of antifouling materials, in polarizable water and ions by fitting to all-atom bond and angle distributions, monomer hydration free energy, monomer–monomer distance potential of mean force (PMF), and monomer–salt radial distribution functions (RDFs). Martini 2.2P was selected for compatibility with the established polarizable water and ion models. For comparison with PNOMA, we also constructed models for conventional sulfobetaine (PSBMA) and phosphorylcholine (PMPC) polyzwitterions and the polycation PMETAC using established nonbonded bead types from the literature and refitting bond and angle potentials. We simulated each polymer brush chemistry for varying grafting density and chain length, validating brush height scaling relations against experimental data. The CG models captured the relative hydration strengths among different polyzwitterion chemistries, and brush heights extrapolated to higher molecular weights are in agreement with experimental ellipsometry data. We find that chain swelling of the superhydrophilic PNOMA brushes lies between that of the traditional polyzwitterions PSBMA/PMPC and the polycation PMETAC. For PNOMA brushes in NaCl solution, simulated brush height decreases with salt concentration due to the selectively strong interactions between amine oxide and sodium ions.

Walker, Christopher C. [Oak Ridge National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermophysical Properties of NaCl–UCl 3 –PuCl 3 Molten Salts: A Combined Computational and Experimental Study

Actinide-bearing molten salts for use as fuels are an essential part of next generation molten salt reactors. Yet, numerous multicomponent salt mixtures are underdeveloped or have not been investigated. Here, this study, based on a combination of experimental and modeling techniques, is dedicated to determining and understanding a variety of properties of the ternary system of NaCl–UCl 3 –PuCl 3 , which represents a scenario for burnup of NaCl–UCl 3 fuel, at two compositions (∼10 and 5 mol % PuCl 3 in eutectic NaCl–UCl 3 pseudobinary) and a range of temperatures. Evaluation of the heat flow and mass loss data showed the 0.61NaCl–0.30UCl 3 –0.09PuCl 3 salt had a melting temperature of 551 ± 5 °C. Two additional thermal effects were observed occurring at approximately 410 and 494 °C. The transition occurring at 410 °C may be due to the presence of oxide in the salt. Extrapolation of thermodynamic data indicates the transition occurring at 494 °C is due to the formation of a liquid phase. Experimental testing determined the density of this system is a linear function of temperature and can be represented by the equation ρ = 4.014–0.0010T(°C), R 2 = 0.992. Additionally, by using atomistic modeling, we found that increasing the PuCl 3 content from 5 to 10 mol % led to the formation of larger Pu 3+ clusters and slower transport of ions.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Synthesis and Crystallization of Atomic Layer Deposition β-Eucryptite LiAlSiO 4 Thin-Film Solid Electrolytes

Atomic layer deposition (ALD) was used to control the stoichiometry of thin lithium aluminosilicate films, thereby enabling crystallization into the ion-conducting β-eucryptite LiAlSiO 4 phase. Here, the rapid thermal annealed ALD film developed a well-defined epitaxial relationship to the silicon substrate: β-LiAlSiO4 ($1\bar{21}0$)||Si (100) and β-LiAlSiO 4 ($10\bar{10}$)||Si (001). The extrapolated room temperature ionic conductivity was found to be 1.2 × 10 –7 S/cm in the [$1\bar{21}0$] direction. Because of the unique 1-D channel along the c axis of β-LiAlSiO 4 , the epitaxial thin film has the potential to facilitate ionic transport if oriented with the c axis normal to the electrode surface, making it a promising electrolyte material for three-dimensional lithium-ion microbatteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Heterogeneous and Framework-Bound Copper Species Contribute to Catalytic Partial Methane Oxidation in Cu–Chabazite Zeolites

The relationship between continuous partial methane oxidation (PMO) rates and Cu site speciation in Cu-CHA zeolite catalysts is explored through differential rate measurements across a series of samples of varying compositions combined with density functional theory, first-principles thermodynamics, and statistical models that characterize Cu speciation. Under continuous PMO conditions (573 K, 0.07 kPa O 2 , 3 kPa H 2 O), Cu ions are shown to anchor to the CHA framework in both monomeric (Z 2 Cu and Z 2 CuH 2 O) and dimeric (O- and OH-bridged Cu) forms that are sensitive to the identity of the local framework anchoring site. Consequently, across the studied compositional range, Cu-CHA catalysts are predicted to contain a mixture of monomeric and dimeric Cu sites. Cu-normalized CH 3 OH formation rates extrapolated to zero conversion reflect contributions from multiple site types. Predicted CH 3 OH formation rates indicate that the Cu site reactivity toward CH 4 is influenced by zeolite composition and is likely limited by the reduction half-cycle.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Influence of Water Sorption on Ionic Conductivity in Polyether Electrolytes at Low Hydration

Ion-containing polymers are subject to a wide range of hydration conditions across electrochemical and water treatment applications. Significant work on dry polymer electrolytes for batteries and highly swollen membranes for water purification has informed our understanding of ion transport under extreme conditions. However, knowledge of intermediate conditions (i.e., low hydration) is essential to emerging applications (e.g., electrolyzers, fuel cells, and lithium extraction). Ion transport under low levels of hydration is distinct from the extreme conditions typically investigated, and the relevant physics cannot be extrapolated from existing knowledge, stifling materials design. In this study, we conducted ion transport measurements in LiTFSI-doped polyethers that were systematically hydrated from dry conditions. A semiautomated apparatus that performs parallel measurements of water uptake and ionic conductivity in thin-film polymers under controlled humidity was developed. For the materials and swelling range considered in this study (i.e., <0.07 g water/g dry polymer electrolyte), ionic conductivity depends nonlinearly on water uptake, with the initial sorbed water weakly affecting conductivity. With additional increases in swelling, more significant increases in conductivity were observed. Remarkably, changes in conductivity induced by water sorption were correlated with the number of water molecules per lithium ion, with the normalized molar conductivity of different samples effectively collapsing onto one another until this unit of hydration exceeded the solvation number of lithium ions under aqueous conditions. Furthermore, these results provide important knowledge regarding the effects of trace water contamination on conductivity measurements in polymer electrolytes and demonstrate that the lithium-ion solvation number marks a key transition point regarding the influence of water on ion transport in ion-containing polymers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy-Resolved Femtosecond Hot Electron Dynamics in Single Plasmonic Nanoparticles

Efficient excitation and harvesting of hot carriers from nanoscale metals is central to many emerging photochemical, photovoltaic, and ultrafast optoelectronic applications. Nevertheless, direct experimental evidence of the energy-dependent femtosecond dynamics in ubiquitous tens-of-nanometer gold structures remains elusive, despite the potentially rich interplay between interfacial and internal plasmonic fields, excitation distributions, and scattering processes. To explore the effects of nanoscale structure on these dynamics, we employ simultaneous time-, angle-, and energy-resolved photoemission spectroscopy of single plasmonic nanoparticles. Photoelectron velocity and electric field distributions reveal bulk-like ballistic hot electron transport in different geometries, lacking any signatures of surface effects. Energy-resolved dynamics are measured in the 1–2 eV range and extrapolated to lower energies via Boltzmann theory, providing a detailed view of hot electron lifetimes within nanoscale gold. Here, we find that particles with relevant dimensions as small as 10 nm serve as exemplary platforms for studying intrinsic metal dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Resolving Nonequilibrium Shape Variations among Millions of Gold Nanoparticles

Nanoparticles, exhibiting functionally relevant structural heterogeneity, are at the forefront of cutting-edge research. Now, high-throughput single-particle imaging (SPI) with X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) creates opportunities for recovering the shape distributions of millions of particles that exhibit functionally relevant structural heterogeneity. To realize this potential, three challenges have to be overcome: (1) simultaneous parametrization of structural variability in real and reciprocal spaces; (2) efficiently inferring the latent parameters of each SPI measurement; (3) scaling up comparisons between 10 5 structural models and 10 6 XFEL-SPI measurements. Here, we describe how we overcame these three challenges to resolve the nonequilibrium shape distributions within millions of gold nanoparticles imaged at the European XFEL. These shape distributions allowed us to quantify the degree of asymmetry in these particles, discover a relatively stable “shape envelope” among nanoparticles, discern finite-size effects related to shape-controlling surfactants, and extrapolate nanoparticles’ shapes to their idealized thermodynamic limit. Ultimately, these demonstrations show that XFEL SPI can help transform nanoparticle shape characterization from anecdotally interesting to statistically meaningful.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Density Measurements of Molten LiF–BeF 2 and LiF–BeF 2 –LaF 3 Salt Mixtures by Neutron Radiography

The densities of eutectic (LiF) 2 –BeF 2 and mixtures of this salt (FLiBe) with LaF 3 were measured by dilatometry and by neutron attenuation from 673 K to 1,073 K. Because LaF 3 has a limited solubility in FLiBe, it was necessary to determine the amount of LaF 3 in solution before the density could be determined. The FLiBe density determination was favorably benchmarked against the literature data. A simple comparison was not available for the LaF 3 –FLiBe mixtures, so extrapolation of published data was necessary based on analysis using the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database-Thermochemistry, or MSTDB-TC, developed by the US Department of Energy. Solubilities for LaF 3 in FLiBe ranged from 1 to 4 mol % over 673 to 1,073 K. The salt system was heated and cooled over 24 h to evaluate potential changes in composition and hysteresis during the measurement. Changes in the meniscus were observed, and these were included in the correction for density determinations. Salt surface tension may have led to supersaturation of LaF 3 in the salt because the solubility curve was nonlinear with respect to the inverse temperature, as would be expected for an ideal system. Surface tension measurements are currently underway to test this hypothesis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Henry’s Solubility and Diffusion Coefficients for 29 Volatile Organic Compounds in Polydimethylsiloxane Sylgard 184 at 293 K

Two-dimensional (2D) inverse gas chromatography (IGC) enables simultaneous determination of Henry’s solubility and Fickian diffusion coefficients for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in polymer films. This technique offers a significant advantage over traditional cylindrical column IGC by providing precise control and measurement of the film thickness (here, 0.064 ± 0.002 mm), which is the critical length scale for accurate diffusivity determination. We apply this methodology to characterize VOC transport in Sylgard 184, a widely used polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS)-based polymer containing substantial silica filler content. At room temperature (20 °C), we measured solubility and diffusion coefficients for 29 common VOCs spanning diverse chemical functionalities, including alkanes, aromatics, chlorinated solvents, ketones, esters, and alcohols. Comparison with literature data for pure PDMS reveals that VOC solubility in Sylgard 184 is generally higher; for most non-hydrogen-bonding compounds it remains within a factor of 2 of pure PDMS, whereas alcohols are enhanced by roughly 1.8 to 3.7 times, which we attribute to favorable interactions with residual silanol groups on the silanized silica filler. Diffusion coefficients range from 1.0 × 10 –6 cm 2 /s (n-undecane) to 8.9 × 10–5 cm 2 /s (acetonitrile) and align well with extrapolated literature values for PDMS. This study provides essential thermodynamic and transport data for predicting VOC permeation in Sylgard 184 while demonstrating the utility of 2D IGC as a robust technique for characterizing rubbery polymer membranes across diverse industrial applications.

organic↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interactions of Polar and Nonpolar Groups of Alcohols in Zeolite Pores

Understanding the quantitative interactions among zeolite pore walls, Bro̷nsted acid sites, and molecules with both polar and nonpolar regions is essential for scoping out the potential of zeolites as sorbents and catalysts. Purely siliceous zeolites (MFI and Beta in the present study) are hydrophobic, whereas those containing aluminum are considered hydrophilic, preferentially adsorbing organic molecules even in aqueous environments. To characterize these interactions, we use primary alcohols of increasing molecular weight, quantifying their specific interactions in the confined pore space of the alkyl (CH x ) and OH groups. Three types of interactions were identified: (i) alkyl CH x groups interacting with the zeolite pore walls (approximately 10 kJ mol −1 per carbon), (ii) alcohol OH groups interacting with the pore walls (30−35 kJ mol −1 ), and (iii) alcohol OH groups interacting with Bro̷nsted acid sites (37 kJ mol −1 ). All three interactions were well mirrored by computational simulations. The contribution of the alkyl CH x groups was inferred from the incremental increase in sorption enthalpy with increasing molecular weight; the interaction strength of the OH groups was determined by extrapolating the global adsorption enthalpy of the alcohols to a hypothetical OH group without an alkyl group. This value was identical to the adsorption enthalpy of water. The experiments demonstrated that only water has an adsorption enthalpy on zeolite pore walls lower than its condensation enthalpy (30−35 kJ mol −1 vs 45 kJ mol −1 ), limiting the concentration of water that can be adsorbed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reply to Comment by Peterie Et Al. on “Accelerated Fill‐Up of the Arbuckle Group Aquifer and Links to U.S. Midcontinent Seismicity”

Abstract Peterie et al. question one observation in our paper: associating pressure increases to injection volumes at distances of up to 25 km from an injection well. In this reply, we show that the comment misunderstands our analysis and the evidence that led to this conclusion. We also show that gauge‐depth‐corrected pressures, used by the authors to produce statewide pressure maps, are discrepant with the static fluid level data, provided in our original compilation and analysis. The discrepancies are a result of the pressure correction method employed, which naïvely substitutes formation pressure for bottomhole pressure to calculate wellbore fluid density. Their linearly interpolated pressure maps, based on sparse data, contain interpolation and extrapolation artifacts that contradict injection trends in the state, the Theis solution, and the superposition principle. We reiterate that pressure and static fluid level increases in Class I wells existed prior to 2013, most notably in central Kansas, where recent earthquakes are cited in the comment as evidence of a pressure plume emanating from the Kansas‐Oklahoma border, 90 km away. We show that the space‐time pattern of seismicity in this area is inconsistent with a northward propagating pressure plume and, instead, seismicity appears to be centered on and near a cluster of high‐rate injection wells, two of which are among the highest rate wells in the state. These observations, along with recent M4 + earthquakes during continued decreases in wastewater injection in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, question the usefulness of the comment for understanding and managing societally significant earthquakes.

Ansari, Esmail↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Quantification of Global Net Methane Emissions From Terrestrial Ecosystems Using a Mechanistically Based Biogeochemistry Model

Quantification of methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands and its sinks from uplands is still fraught with large uncertainties. Here, a methane biogeochemistry model was revised, parameterized, and verified for various wetland ecosystems across the globe. The model was then extrapolated to the global scale to quantify the uncertainty induced from four different types of uncertainty sources including parameterization, wetland type distribution, wetland area distribution, and meteorological input. We found that global wetland emissions are 212 ± 62 and 212 ± 32 Tg CH4 year -1 (1Tg = 10 12 g) due to uncertain parameters and wetland type distribution, respectively, during 2000–2012. Using two wetland distribution data sets and three sets of climate data, the model simulations indicated that the global wetland emissions range from 186 to 212 CH 4 year -1 for the same period. The parameters were the most significant uncertainty source. After combining the global methane consumption in the range of -34 to -46 Tg CH 4 year -1 , we estimated that the global net land methane emissions are 149–176 Tg CH 4 year -1 due to uncertain wetland distribution and meteorological input. Spatially, the northeast United States and Amazon were two hotspots of methane emission, while consumption hotspots were in the Eastern United States and eastern China. During 1950–2016, both wetland emissions and upland consumption increased during El Niño events and decreased during La Niña events. This study highlights the need for more in situ methane flux data, more accurate wetland type, and area distribution information to better constrain the model uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

High–Pressure Deformation of Iron–Nickel–Silicon Alloys and Implications for Earth’s Inner Core

Earth’s inner core exhibits strong seismic anisotropy, often attributed to the alignment of hexagonal close-packed iron (hcp-Fe) alloy crystallites with the Earth’s poles. How this alignment developed depends on material properties of the alloy and is important to our understanding of the core’s crystallization history and active geodynamical forcing. Previous studies suggested that hcp-Fe is weak under deep Earth conditions but did not investigate the effects of the lighter elements known to be part of the inner core alloy. Here, we present results from radial X-ray diffraction experiments in a diamond anvil cell that constrain the strength and deformation properties of iron-nickel-silicon (Fe–Ni–Si) alloys up to 60 GPa. We also show the results of laser heating to 1650 K to evaluate the effect of temperature. Observed alloy textures suggest different relative activities of the various hcp deformation mechanisms compared to pure Fe, but these textures could still account for the theorized polar alignment. Fe–Ni–Si alloys are mechanically stronger than Fe and Fe–Ni; extrapolated to inner core conditions, Si-bearing alloys may be more than an order of magnitude stronger. Furthermore, this enhanced strength proportionally reduces the effectivity of dislocation creep as a deformation mechanism, which may suggest that texture developed during crystallization rather than as the result of postsolidification plastic flow.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems

Abstract Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are also subject to numerous uncertainties that prevent the direct application of simulation models for prediction and planning, particularly when extrapolating past behavior to a nonstationary future. Recent studies have developed a combination of methods to characterize, attribute, and quantify these uncertainties for both single‐ and multi‐sector systems. Here, we review challenges and complications to the idealized goal of fully quantifying all uncertainties in a multi‐sector model and their interactions with policy design as they emerge at different stages of analysis: (a) inference and model calibration; (b) projecting future outcomes; and (c) scenario discovery and identification of risk regimes. We also identify potential methods and research opportunities to help navigate the tradeoffs inherent in uncertainty analyses for complex systems. During this discussion, we provide a classification of uncertainty types and discuss model coupling frameworks to support interdisciplinary collaboration on multi‐sector dynamics (MSD) research. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for best practices to ensure that MSD research can be properly contextualized with respect to the underlying uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Frictional and Lithological Controls on Shallow Slow Slip at the Northern Hikurangi Margin

Slow slip events (SSEs) have been identified at subduction zones globally as an important link in the continuum between elastodynamic ruptures and stable creep. The northern Hikurangi margin is home to shallow SSEs which propagate to within 2 km of the seafloor and possibly to the trench, providing insights into the physical conditions conducive to SSE behavior. We report on a suite of friction experiments performed on protolith material entering the SSE source region at the Hikurangi margin, collected during the International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 375. We performed velocity stepping and slide-hold-slide experiments over a range of fault slip rates, from plate rate (5 cm/yr or 1.6 × 10 –9 m/s) to ~1 mm/s (10 –3 m/s) and quantified the frictional velocity dependence and healing rates for a range of lithologies atdifferent stresses. The frictional velocity dependence (a-b) and critical slip distance DC increase with fault slip rate in our experiments. We observe atransition from velocity weakening to strengthening at slip rates of ~0.3 µm/s. This velocity dependence of DC could be due to a combination of dilatant strengthening and a widening of the active shear zone at higher slip rates. We document low healing rates in the clay-rich volcaniclastic conglomerates, which lie above the incoming plate basement at least locally, and relatively higher healing rates in the chalk lithology. Finally, our experimental constraints on healing rates in different input lithologies extrapolated to timescales of 1–10 years are consistent with the geodetically inferred low stress drops and healing rates characteristic of the Hikurangi SSEs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental Investigation of Mercury's Magma Ocean Viscosity: Implications for the Formation of Mercury's Cumulate Mantle, Its Subsequent Dynamic Evolution, and Crustal Petrogenesis

Mercury has a compositionally heterogeneous surface that was produced by different periods of igneous activity during Mercury’s history, perhaps suggesting heterogeneous mantle sources. Furthermore, understanding the structure of Mercury’s mantle formed during the planet’s magma ocean stage could help in developing a petrologic model for Mercury, and thus, its dynamic history in the context of crustal petrogenesis. We present results of falling sphere viscometry experiments on late stage Mercurian magma ocean analogue compositions. Owing to the presence of sulfur on the surface of Mercury, two compositions were tested, one with sulfur and one without. The liquids have viscosities of 0.6-3.9 (sulfur-bearing) and 0.6-10.9 Pa·s (sulfur-free), similar to an andesite at the tested experimental conditions (1.4-6.2 GPa, 1600-2000°C). We present new viscosity models that enable extrapolation beyond the experimental conditions and evaluate grain growth and the potential for crystal entrainment in a cooling, convecting magma ocean. We consider scenarios with and without a graphite flotation crust, which suggests two possible endmember outcomes for Mercury’s mantle structure. With a graphite flotation crust, crystallization of the mantle would be fractional with negatively buoyant minerals sinking to form a stratified cumulate pile according to the crystallization sequence. Without a flotation crust, crystals would largely remain entrained in the convecting liquid during solidification, producing a homogeneous mantle. In the context of these endmember models, the chemically heterogeneous surface could result from dynamical stirring or mixing of a mantle that was initially compositionally stratified, or from different extents of melting of a homogeneous mantle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Shock Compression of Fluorapatite to 120 GPa

Apatite is a phosphate mineral relevant to shock metamorphism in planetary materials. Here, we report on the response of natural fluorapatite from Durango, Mexico under shock wave loading between 14.5 and 119.5 GPa. Wave profile measurements were obtained in plate-impact experiments conducted on [0001]-oriented fluorapatite single crystals. To GPa peak stresses, we observed a two-wave structure indicating an elastic-inelastic response with elastic wave amplitudes of 10.5–13.1 GPa. Between 39.1 and 62.1 GPa, a complex wave structure was observed involving the propagation of three waves. At and above 73.7 GPa, only a single shock wave was observed. The data above 73.7 GPa provided the following linear shock velocity – particle velocity relationship: U s = 6.5(2) + 0.78(6) u p , (mm/μs). Above 80 GPa, the densities in the shocked state exceed both the extrapolated 300-K density of fluorapatite and the predicted 300-K density for a mixture of the high-pressure assemblage, tuite and CaF 2 . Furthermore, this result indicates that fluorapatite undergoes a transition to a denser structure under shock loading at these conditions. The shock response of fluorapatite is observed to be similar to enstatite but stiffer than quartz and albite at the stresses examined in this work.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimates of Lake Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Chlorophyll‐ a Concentrations to Characterize Harmful Algal Bloom Risk Across the United States

Abstract Excess nutrient pollution contributes to the formation of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that compromise fisheries and recreation and that can directly endanger human and animal health via cyanotoxins. Efforts to quantify the occurrence, drivers, and severity of HABs across large areas is difficult due to the resource intensive nature of field monitoring of lake nutrient and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations. To better characterize how nutrients interact with other environmental factors to produce algal blooms in freshwater systems, we used spatially explicit and temporally matched climate, landscape, in‐lake characteristic, and nutrient inventory data sets to predict nutrients and chlorophyll‐aacross the conterminous US (CONUS). Using a nested modeling approach, three random forest (RF) models were trained to explain the spatiotemporal variation in total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations across US EPA's National Lakes Assessment (n = 2,062). Concentrations of TN and TP were the most important predictors and, with other variables, the RF model accounted for 68% of variation in chlorophyll‐a. We then used these RF models to extrapolate lake TN and TP predictions to lakes without nutrient observations and predict chlorophyll‐afor ∼112,000 lakes across the CONUS. Risk for high chlorophyll‐aconcentrations is highest in the agriculturally dominated Midwest, but other areas of risk emerge in nutrient pollution hot spots across the country. These catchment and lake‐specific results can help managers identify potential nutrient pollution and chlorophyll‐ahot spots that may fuel blooms, prioritize at‐risk lakes for additional monitoring, and optimize management to protect human health and other environmental end goals.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗