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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Human Error Analysis for Human-Rated Space Systems

Humans bring unique capabilities to space systems and contribute to mission success in a manner that cannot be matched by machines. Nevertheless, from time to time, human error can present a threat to system performance, and system designers must anticipate and manage this risk. NASA’s Human-Rating Requirements for Space Systems call for program managers to conduct a human error analysis (HEA) during system development but does not specify how to do this. In 2018, NASA’s Engineering and Safety Center asked the authors to develop a guidance document on HEA. The resulting position paper outlines a suggested method for HEA and makes it clear that error analysis is about identifying and mitigating problems at a system level, and not about finding fault with individuals. Error management strategies must be directed at error-producing conditions, thereby reducing the likelihood of human error, while retaining the positive contribution that humans make to system operations.

human error human-rated space↗
NASA NTRS2024

Historical Aerospace Software Errors Categorized to Influence Fault Tolerance

Since the first use of computers in space and aircraft, software errors have occurred. These errors can manifest as loss-of-life or less catastrophically. As the demand for automation increases, software in mission or safety-critical systems should be designed to be tolerant to the most likely software faults. This paper categorizes a set of 55 historic aerospace software error incidents from 1962 to 2023 to determine trends of how and where automation is most likely to fail, behaving unexpectedly. A distinction between software producing unexpected (erroneous) output versus no output (failsilent) is introduced. Of the historical incidents analyzed, 85% were from software producing wrong output rather than simply stopping. Rebooting was found to be ineffective to clear erroneous behavior, and not reliable to recover from silent failures. Error origin was within the code/logic itself in 58% of cases, 16% from configurable data, 15% from unexpected sensor input, and 11% from command/operator input. A substantial forty percent (40%) of unexpected software behavior was indicated by the absence of code, arising from unanticipated situations and missing requirements, and 16% of incidents were subjectively deemed “unknown-unknowns”. No incidents were found to be the result of programming language, compiler, tool, or operating system; and only sixteen percent (16%) of all incidents were considered errors traditional computer science/programming in nature. These findings indicate that for fault tolerance, erroneous automation behavior must be a primary consideration especially at critical moments, and reboot recoverability may not be viable. Special care should be taken to validate configurable data and commands prior to use. “Test-like-you-fly”, including hardware-in-the-loop combined with robust off-nominal testing should be used to uncover missing logic arising from unanticipated situations not covered by requirements alone. This study uniquely focuses on manifestations of unexpected flight software behavior, independent of ultimate root cause. We characterize software error behavior and origin to improve software design, test, and operations for resilience to the most common manifestations, and provide a rich dataset for further study.

Aerospace↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

System-Wide Error Attribution in Multi-Vehicle Operations: Theoretical Explanation, Implications, and Applications

In multi-vehicle aerial operation contexts, a single or several human operators (m) are responsible for managing multiple uncrewed vehicles (N). This is referred to as the m:N operational paradigm. When automation error occurs during m:N operations, especially if multiple vehicles exhibit automation error, a question is raised: What level of system globality will the error be attributed to? Globality refers to the levels within the conceptual hierarchy of a perceptual object. Significant costs could be incurred if the error is falsely attributed to a higher globality level than it should be (e.g., multiple groups of vehicles as opposed to a single vehicle), and those vehicles are subsequently subject to grounding and evaluation/maintenance. Likewise, it could be problematic if error is falsely attributed to a component (i.e., a lower globality level), resulting in ongoing, unsafe operation of vehicles that should be grounded or evaluated. Thus, to meet required safety standards and facilitate commercial viability, multi-vehicle operators must be capable of appropriately attributing the level of globality of automation error within the system they are responsible for.

Error↗
DOE OSTI2019

Application of the Clear-Sky Spectral Error for Radiometer Classification in ISO 9060: Preprint

A recent update of the ISO 9060 standard for the classification of solar radiometers introduces the use of the clear sky spectral error. The spectral error is the change in responsivity that may occur when the spectral distribution of the incident solar radiation differs from the spectral distribution present at the time of calibration. Spectral errors may occur if the radiometer does not have a completely uniform spectral responsivity. This use of the clear sky spectral error is a significant change compared to the previous version of the 9060 standard as now not only thermopile radiometers, but also photodiode radiometers are covered by the standard. We explain the method used to derive the spectral error and present spectral errors for several radiometers of different technologies. The results demonstrate that the new method is helpful to classify radiometers, distinguishing between different radiometer types and excluding inappropriate instruments from the classification as pyranometers and pyrheliometers. We recommend that the method is also used for WMO's radiometer classification which up to our knowledge is currently not fulfilled by any field pyrheliometer and many pyranometers on the market due to its demanding requirements for the spectral responsivity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

A new indirect measure of diffusion model error

We define a new indirect measure of the diffusion model error called the diffusion model error source. When this model error source is added to the diffusion equation, the transport solution for the angular-integrated intensity is obtained. This source represents a means by which a transport code can be used to generate information relating to the adequacy of diffusion theory for any given problem without actually solving the diffusion equation. The generation of this source does not relate in any way to acceleration of the iterative convergence of transport solutions. Perhaps the most well-known indirect measure of the diffusion model error is the variable-Eddington tensor. This tensor provides a great deal of information about the angular dependence of the angular intensity solution, but it is not always simple to interpret. In contrast, our diffusion model error source is a scalar that is conceptually easy to understand. In addition to defining the diffusion model error source analytically, we show how to generate this source numerically relative to the S{sub n} radiative transfer equations with linear-discontinuous spatial discretization. This numerical source is computationally tested and shown to reproduce the Sn solution for a Marshak-wave problem. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Determination of a Generic Human Error Probability Distribution, Part 1: A Dynamic Formulation of SPAR-H

In almost all major nuclear power plants (NPP) events include a significant human error component. As an example, in Fukushima Daiichi (2011) nuclear meltdown, the human actions related to the high-pressure injection cooling strongly affected accident evolution. Furthermore, in the Three Mile Island accident (1979) (which was initiated by a stuck open valve and thus was triggered a loss of coolant accident) the unit operators made decisions based upon false assumptions that contributed negatively to the accident. Given these premises, the ability to accurately model human interactions with plant evolution and, in particular, dynamically calculate human error probability (HEP) plays a major role in a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Human reliability analysis (HRA) identifies and models the causes of human errors, and quantifies HEP by applying different methodologies. HRA methods identify errors and reflect on the understanding of error-prone people and systems. There are a number of HRA methods available that assist in identifying the vulnerabilities in the system and provide guidance in determining the HEP. HEP is the probability of a human failure event (HFE), and quantification of HEPs under various situations is utilized in PRA of large complex systems. One of the more prominent HRA methods is the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method that was developed to estimate HEPs for the use in the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) PRA models employed in U.S. NPPs. SPAR-H is implemented in U.S. NPPs by regulators at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to determine the HEP based on expert estimation through the use of calculation worksheets. In SPAR-H, the nominal HEPs (NHEPs) are multiplied by performance shaping factors (PSF) multiplier values to obtain the overall error probability. PSFs encompass the human components, individual characteristics, their environment, and aspects of the task. With PSFs, the goal is to capture all factors that can affect human performance. In SPAR-H there are eight PSFs used, each having respective levels corresponding to multipliers: Available Time, Stress/Stressors, Complexity, Experience/Training, Procedures, Ergonomics/Human Machine Interface, Fitness for Duty, and Work Processes. The PSF multipliers indicate enhanced, nominal, or degraded human performance. The SPAR-H method estimates the HEP through multiplying a NHEP with PSFs. Hence, SPAR-H is a traditional HRA method that assesses human performance at a fixed, or static, point in time. In a dynamic HRA framework, human performance is assessed on a continuous time basis. SPAR-H can be used within a dynamic PRA framework through the use of simulation and stochastic models. The goal of dynamic HRA is to build a more realistic model of the human-system interaction to enhance calculation of reliability, risk and safety analysis. The progression of events in dynamic SPAR-H considers that some PSFs may experience gradual change, while other change can be sudden due to individualistic differences or rapid plant status changes. The PSF changes are caused by contextual changes in the scenario. For example, as more time passes, the realization that a task should be completed sooner may cause the operator more stress. In another example, a sudden relay of information about sickness of a family member may alter the operator's general stress level and fitness for duty. Each PSF has a different dynamic nature; PSFs like stress and complexity change more quickly over the course of a task than experience and training. While the experience of an operator changes over the course of attaining the objective, the amount that this added experience changes the HEP is very minimal. In contrast, the stress, complexity, and procedures PSFs may change quite a bit over the course of task completion.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2016

The impact of response measurement error on the analysis of designed experiments

This study considers the analysis of designed experiments when there is measurement error in the true response or so-called response measurement error. We consider both additive and multiplicative response measurement errors. Through a simulation study, we investigate the impact of ignoring the response measurement error in the analysis, that is, by using a standard analysis based on t-tests. In addition, we examine the role of repeat measurements in improving the quality of estimation and prediction in the presence of response measurement error. We also study a Bayesian approach that accounts for the response measurement error directly through the specification of the model, and allows including additional information about variability in the analysis. We consider the impact on power, prediction, and optimization. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Interior energy error estimates for the weak Galerkin finite element method

Consider the Poisson equation in a polytopal domain ΩRC d (d=2,3) as the model problem. In this paper, we study interior energy error estimates for the weak Galerkin finite element approximation to elliptic boundary value problems. In particular, we show that the interior error in the energy norm is bounded by three components: the best local approximation error, the error in negative norms, and the trace error on the element boundaries. This implies that the interior convergence rate can be polluted by solution singularities on the domain boundary, even when the solution is smooth in the interior region. Numerical results are reported to support the theoretical findings. Lastly, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first local energy error analysis that applies to general meshes consisting of polytopal elements and hanging nodes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Characterizing the impact of model error in hydrologic time series recovery inverse problems

Hydrologic models are commonly over-smoothed relative to reality, owing to computational limitations and to the difficulty of obtaining accurate high-resolution information. When used in an inversion context, such models may introduce systematic biases which cannot be encapsulated by an unbiased “observation noise” term of the type assumed by standard regularization theory and typical Bayesian formulations. Despite its importance, model error is difficult to encapsulate systematically and is often neglected. In this paper, model error is considered for an important class of inverse problems that includes interpretation of hydraulic transients and contaminant source history inference: reconstruction of a time series that has been convolved against a transfer function (i.e., impulse response) that is only approximately known. Using established harmonic theory along with two results established here regarding triangular Toeplitz matrices, upper and lower error bounds are derived for the effect of systematic model error on time series recovery for both well-determined and over-determined inverse problems. It is seen that use of additional measurement locations does not improve expected performance in the face of model error. A Monte Carlo study of a realistic hydraulic reconstruction problem is presented, and the lower error bound is seen informative about expected behavior. Finally, a possible diagnostic criterion for blind transfer function characterization is also uncovered.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Analytical error bars and RSD for neutron multiplicity counting

This article derives the standard deviation of the moments of neutron multiplicity distributions for both random and (shift register) triggered counting gates by propagating the multinomial distribution of errors in the counting distribution. Exact and approximate analytical formulas for the singles, doubles, and triples error bars are given along with the corresponding RSD (relative standard deviation). These analytical formulas provide a simple way to analyze and predict error bars without needing empirical data or simulations. The comparison of these analytical error bars to actual measurement errors can reveal systematic errors that are not being accounted for in the modeling of the data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Errors in Effective Cluster Interactions of Lattice Gas Cluster Expansions

The promise of lattice gas (LG) cluster expansions (CEs) is that they can describe a given system property to any level of accuracy since the orthogonal “cluster basis functions” span the complete space of available configurations. Such an approach can be constructed to an arbitrarily large surface of a finite number of distinct adsorption sites. Unfortunately, this is only true for the case of an ideal, fixed lattice decorated with components at precise lattice points (the lattice “sites”) with no distortions or relaxations subsequently allowed. Since most systems, and surfaces specifically, do not conform to such an ideal set of constraints, errors in LG CEs must be expected or CE convergence severely hampered. Beyond this, numerical errors in the provided data can complicate the proper construction of a truly predictive and/or physically significant CE. In this work, we show here how reliance on typical statistical tools like confidence intervals cannot be expected to provide an accurate representation of the uncertainty of effective cluster interactions (ECIs) in the CE due to the nature of the target ab initio data and the nature of CEs themselves. We develop a method for estimating these errors that does not rely on statistical assumptions about the model or data. We then use these ECI errors to quantify fundamental consequences on the uncertainty of ECIs in CEs built from O/Fe(100) data whose surface and adsorbates have been allowed to relax in a typical manner and from O/Fe(100) data whose surface and adsorbates are fixed in ideal lattice positions. We also quantify the effect of using a different density functional theory exchange–correlation functional, using these ECI errors to assess the significance in any deviations. In both cases, our method is shown to have remarkable utility in the quantification of errors in the ECIs of CEs. While we stick to the lattice gas convention in this work, the method is equally applicable to the Ising convention or, in principle, any linear model of sufficient complexity.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

New Insights Into Error Decomposition for Precipitation Products

Abstract It is very important to quantify errors of precipitation estimation products. However, the existing methods do not describe all error components and are therefore not comprehensive enough. In this study, we propose a four‐component error decomposition method (4CED) that decomposes the total errors of precipitation products into four independent parts: hit positive bias, hit negative bias, false bias, and missed bias. And we use it to evaluate the performance of the three latest satellite precipitation products in the eastern monsoon region of China. Our study reveals 4CED has apparent improvements compared with the previous method. Results also provide new insights for tracking error sources and quantifying the error magnitudes of precipitation products. Moreover, the proposed 4CED can be extended to different spatial and temporal scales. Our new method will not only contribute to product upgrades, but also provide guidance for potential applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-time quantum error correction beyond break-even

The ambition of harnessing the quantum for computation is at odds with the fundamental phenomenon of decoherence. The purpose of quantum error correction (QEC) is to counteract the natural tendency of a complex system to decohere. This cooperative process, which requires participation of multiple quantum and classical components, creates a special type of dissipation that removes the entropy caused by the errors faster than the rate at which these errors corrupt the stored quantum information. Previous experimental attempts to engineer such a process faced an excessive generation of errors that overwhelmed the error-correcting capability of the process itself. Whether it is practically possible to utilize QEC for extending quantum coherence thus remains an open question. We answer it by demonstrating a fully stabilized and error-corrected logical qubit whose quantum coherence is significantly longer than that of all the imperfect quantum components involved in the QEC process, beating the best of them with a coherence gain of G=2.27±0.07. Here we achieve this performance by combining innovations in several domains including the fabrication of superconducting quantum circuits and model-free reinforcement learning.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2017

Magnitude of pseudopotential localization errors in fixed node diffusion quantum Monte Carlo

Growth in computational resources has lead to the application of real space diffusion quantum Monte Carlo to increasingly heavy elements. Although generally assumed to be small, we find that when using standard techniques, the pseudopotential localization error can be large, on the order of an electron volt for an isolated cerium atom. We formally show that the localization error can be reduced to zero with improvements to the Jastrow factor alone, and we define a metric of Jastrow sensitivity that may be useful in the design of pseudopotentials. We employ an extrapolation scheme to extract the bare fixed node energy and estimate the localization error in both the locality approximation and the T-moves schemes for the Ce atom in charge states 3+/4+. The locality approximation exhibits the lowest Jastrow sensitivity and generally smaller localization errors than T-moves although the locality approximation energy approaches the localization free limit from above/below for the 3+/4+ charge state. We find that energy minimized Jastrow factors including three-body electron-electron-ion terms are the most effective at reducing the localization error for both the locality approximation and T-moves for the case of the Ce atom. Less complex or variance minimized Jastrows are generally less effective. Finally, our results suggest that further improvements to Jastrow factors and trial wavefunction forms may be needed to reduce localization errors to chemical accuracy when medium core pseudopotentials are applied to heavy elements such as Ce.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Self-interaction error overbinds water clusters but cancels in structural energy differences

Here, we gauge the importance of self-interaction errors in density functional approximations (DFAs) for the case of water clusters. To this end, we used the Fermi–Löwdin orbital self-interaction correction method (FLOSIC) to calculate the binding energy of clusters of up to eight water molecules. Three representative DFAs of the local, generalized gradient, and metageneralized gradient families [i.e., local density approximation (LDA), Perdew–Burke–Ernzerhof (PBE), and strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN)] were used. We find that the overbinding of the water clusters in these approximations is not a density-driven error. We show that, while removing self-interaction error does not alter the energetic ordering of the different water isomers with respect to the uncorrected DFAs, the resulting binding energies are corrected toward accurate reference values from higher-level calculations. In particular, self-interaction–corrected SCAN not only retains the correct energetic ordering for water hexamers but also reduces the mean error in the hexamer binding energies to less than 14 meV/ H 2 O from about 42 meV/ H 2 O for SCAN. By decomposing the total binding energy into many-body components, we find that large errors in the two-body interaction in SCAN are significantly reduced by self-interaction corrections. Higher-order many-body errors are small in both SCAN and self-interaction–corrected SCAN. These findings suggest that orbital-by-orbital removal of self-interaction combined with a proper DFA can lead to improved descriptions of water complexes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Reducing the Spatial Discretization Error of Thermal Emission in Implicit Monte Carlo Simulations

Implicit Monte Carlo simulations of thermal radiative transport can exhibit what is known as teleportation error in problems with strong coupling between radiation and matter. Teleportation error occurs when energy deposited in a localized region of a spatial zone is emitted throughout the zone in the next time step. Teleportation error is commonly reduced by biasing the positions of photon thermal emission using a fit to the spatial distribution of temperature to the fourth power. The current work samples and stores locations along photon paths based on absorption probabilities. These locations are used as sites for emission in the subsequent time step. This method of teleportation correction is demonstrated in several sample problems, and is validated against an Implicit Monte Carlo Diffusion Method, which does not exhibit teleportation error. We report the new method reduces teleportation error relative to the source tilting method, and enables the use of lower spatial resolutions than would be required to mitigate teleportation error using the source tilting method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Reducing systematic error in weak lensing cluster surveys

Weak lensing provides an important route toward collecting samples of clusters of galaxies selected by mass. Subtle systematic errors in image reduction can compromise the power of this technique. We use the B-mode signal to quantify this systematic error and to test methods for reducing this error. We show that two procedures are efficient in suppressing systematic error in the B-mode: (1) refinement of the mosaic CCD warping procedure to conform to absolute celestial coordinates and (2) truncation of the smoothing procedure on a scale of 10'. Application of these procedures reduces the systematic error to 20% of its original amplitude. We provide an analytic expression for the distribution of the highest peaks in noise maps that can be used to estimate the fraction of false peaks in the weak-lensing κ-signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) maps as a function of the detection threshold. Based on this analysis, we select a threshold S/N = 4.56 for identifying an uncontaminated set of weak-lensing peaks in two test fields covering a total area of ∼3 deg{sup 2}. Taken together these fields contain seven peaks above the threshold. Among these, six are probable systems of galaxies and one is a superposition. We confirm the reliability of these peaks with dense redshift surveys, X-ray, and imaging observations. The systematic error reduction procedures we apply are general and can be applied to future large-area weak-lensing surveys. Our high-peak analysis suggests that with an S/N threshold of 4.5, there should be only 2.7 spurious weak-lensing peaks even in an area of 1000 deg{sup 2}, where we expect ∼2000 peaks based on our Subaru fields.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

An Efficient Silent Data Corruption Detection Method with Error-Feedback Control and Even Sampling for HPC Applications

The silent data corruption (SDC) problem is attracting more and more attentions because it is expected to have a great impact on exascale HPC applications. SDC faults are hazardous in that they pass unnoticed by hardware and can lead to wrong computation results. In this work, we formulate SDC detection as a runtime one-step-ahead prediction method, leveraging multiple linear prediction methods in order to improve the detection results. The contributions are twofold: (1) we propose an error feedback control model that can reduce the prediction errors for different linear prediction methods, and (2) we propose a spatial-data-based even-sampling method to minimize the detection overheads (including memory and computation cost). We implement our algorithms in the fault tolerance interface, a fault tolerance library with multiple checkpoint levels, such that users can conveniently protect their HPC applications against both SDC errors and fail-stop errors. We evaluate our approach by using large-scale traces from well-known, large-scale HPC applications, as well as by running those HPC applications on a real cluster environment. Experiments show that our error feedback control model can improve detection sensitivity by 34-189% for bit-flip memory errors injected with the bit positions in the range [20,30], without any degradation on detection accuracy. Furthermore, memory size can be reduced by 33% with our spatial-data even-sampling method, with only a slight and graceful degradation in the detection sensitivity.

Di, Sheng↗