Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “error bound”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 541 records · Page 30

Comparing Consider-Covariance Analysis with Sigma-Point Consider Filter and Linear-Theory Consider Filter Formulations

Recent literature in applied estimation theory reflects growing interest in the sigma-point (also called unscented ) formulation for optimal sequential state estimation, often describing performance comparisons with extended Kalman filters as applied to specific dynamical problems [c.f. 1, 2, 3]. Favorable attributes of sigma-point filters are described as including a lower expected error for nonlinear even non-differentiable dynamical systems, and a straightforward formulation not requiring derivation or implementation of any partial derivative Jacobian matrices. These attributes are particularly attractive, e.g. in terms of enabling simplified code architecture and streamlined testing, in the formulation of estimators for nonlinear spaceflight mechanics systems, such as filter software onboard deep-space robotic spacecraft. As presented in [4], the Sigma-Point Consider Filter (SPCF) algorithm extends the sigma-point filter algorithm to the problem of consider covariance analysis. Considering parameters in a dynamical system, while estimating its state, provides an upper bound on the estimated state covariance, which is viewed as a conservative approach to designing estimators for problems of general guidance, navigation and control. This is because, whether a parameter in the system model is observable or not, error in the knowledge of the value of a non-estimated parameter will increase the actual uncertainty of the estimated state of the system beyond the level formally indicated by the covariance of an estimator that neglects errors or uncertainty in that parameter. The equations for SPCF covariance evolution are obtained in a fashion similar to the derivation approach taken with standard (i.e. linearized or extended) consider parameterized Kalman filters (c.f. [5]). While in [4] the SPCF and linear-theory consider filter (LTCF) were applied to an illustrative linear dynamics/linear measurement problem, in the present work examines the SPCF as applied to nonlinear sequential consider covariance analysis, i.e. in the presence of nonlinear dynamics and nonlinear measurements. A simple SPCF for orbit determination, exemplifying an algorithm hosted in the guidance, navigation and control (GN&C) computer processor of a hypothetical robotic spacecraft, was implemented, and compared with an identically-parameterized (standard) extended, consider-parameterized Kalman filter. The onboard filtering scenario examined is a hypothetical spacecraft orbit about a small natural body with imperfectly-known mass. The formulations, relative complexities, and performances of the filters are compared and discussed.

Lisano, Michael E.↗

Adjustment of Sensor Locations During Thermal Property Parameter Estimation

The temperature dependent thermal properties of a material may be evaluated from transient temperature histories using nonlinear parameter estimation techniques. The usual approach is to minimize the sum of the squared errors between measured and calculated temperatures at specific locations in the body. Temperature measurements are usually made with thermocouples and it is customary to take thermocouple locations as known and fixed during parameter estimation computations. In fact, thermocouple locations are never known exactly. Location errors on the order of the thermocouple wire diameter are intrinsic to most common instrumentation procedures (e.g., inserting a thermocouple into a drilled hole) and additional errors can be expected for delicate materials, difficult installations, large thermocouple beads, etc.. Thermocouple location errors are especially significant when estimating thermal properties of low diffusively materials which can sustain large temperature gradients during testing. In the present work, a parameter estimation formulation is presented which allows for the direct inclusion of thermocouple positions into the primary parameter estimation procedure. It is straightforward to set bounds on thermocouple locations which exclude non-physical locations and are consistent with installation tolerances. Furthermore, bounds may be tightened to an extent consistent with any independent verification of thermocouple location, such as x-raying, and so the procedure is entirely consonant with experimental information. A mathematical outline of the procedure is given and its implementation is illustrated through numerical examples characteristic of light-weight, high-temperature ceramic insulation during transient heating. The efficacy and the errors associated with the procedure are discussed.

Milos, Frank S.↗

Performance analysis of a frame sync algorithm for uncoded PSK telemetry

The optimum procedure for locating a frame sync word periodically inserted in uncoded binary data received over a binary symmetric channel is based on the Hamming distance metric. In this paper, a practical frame sync acquisition and maintenance algorithm is described, and its performance is analyzed. Specifically, with respect to this algorithm, an upper bound on the probability of false sync acquisition, the mean time to sync acquisition, and the subsequent mean time to loss of sync are computed for arbitrary bit error rates, frame lengths, sync word lengths, and algorithm parameters.

Levitt, B. K.↗

The detailed chemistry and thermodynamics of sodium in oxygen-rich flames

Measurement of sodium and OH concentrations in ten oxygen-rich H2/O2/N2 flames by respective saturated and low-power laser induced fluorescence techniques have permitted a detailed examination of the pronounced flame chemistry of sodium in such oxygen rich media. Previous interpretations have been shown to be largely incomplete or in error. The flame downstream profiles indicate that the amount of free sodium tracks the decay of H-atom and as the flame radicals decay sodium becomes increasingly bound in a molecular form. A detailed kinetic model indicates that the sodium is distributed between NaOH and NaO2 species. Concentrations of NaO are very small and NaH negligible. The actual distribution is controlled by the state of equilibrium of the flames' basic free radicals. Na, NaO2 and NaOH are all coupled to one another by fast reactions which can rapidly interconvert one to another as flame conditions vary. Above about 2000K, NaOH becomes dominant whereas NaO2 plays an increasingly important contribution at lower temperatures.

Hynes, A. J.↗

An improved method for simultaneous determination of frictional pressure drop and vapor volume fraction in vertical flow boiling

The two-phase frictional pressure drop and vapor volume fraction in the vertical boiling and adiabatic flow of the refrigerant, R11, have been simultaneously measured by a liquid balancing column and differential magnetic reluctance pressure transducers. An account is given of the experimental apparatus and procedure, data acquisition and analysis, and error estimation employed. All values of two-phase multipliers evaluated on the basis of the measured frictional pressure drop data in vertical upflow fall in the range bounded by the predictions of the Chisholm correlation and the homogeneous model.

Klausner, J. F.↗

Analytic studies of local-severe-storm observables by satellites

Attention is concentrated on the exceptionally violet whirlwind, often characterized by a fairly vertical axis of rotation. For a cylindrical polar coordinate system with axis coincident with the axis of rotation, the secondary flow involves the radial and axial velocity components. The thesis advanced is, first, that a violent whirlwind is characterized by swirl speeds relative to the axis of rotation on the order of 90 m/s, with 100 m/s being close to an upper bound. This estimate is based on interpretation of funnel-cloud shape (which also suggests properties of the radial profile of swirl, as well as the maximum magnitude); an error assessment of the funnel-cloud interpretation procedure is developed. Second, computation of ground-level pressure deficits achievable from typical tornado-spawning ambients by idealized thermohydrostatic processes suggests that a two-cell structure is required to sustain such large speeds.

Dergarabedian, P.↗

The local interstellar helium density

During the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project, an extreme-ultraviolet telescope observed the region of the sky from which the interstellar medium approaches the sun. The instrument had a tin filter whose bandpass included the 584-A line of neutral helium. The observations set an upper bound for the number density of neutral helium in the local interstellar medium of 0.004 + or - 0.0022 per cu cm, which is significantly lower than previously reported. The stated error is dominated by the present uncertainty in the solar 584-A flux, which is taken to be approximately 200 million photons/sq cm per sec at earth's orbit. The result is not consistent with previous resonant-scattering Ly-alpha observations of interstellar hydrogen passing through the solar system, which generally yield a hydrogen number density of about 0.1 per cu cm, unless interstellar helium is locally depleted below its cosmic abundance. The result is consistent with cosmic abundances if the much lower average hydrogen densities inferred from recent column-density measurements to nearby hot stars are in fact representative of the immediate solar neighborhood.

Freeman, J.↗

Multicolor pyrometer for materials processing in space

The program goals are to design, construct, and program a prototype imaging pyrometer capable of measuring the temperature distribution across the surface of a moving object suspended in space. The approach is to utilize an optical system which operates at short wavelengths compared to the peak of the blackbody spectrum for the temperature range of interest, thus minimizing errors associated with a lack of knowledge about heated sample emissivity. An analysis of the system's temperature measurement capability based on the camera's responsivity was performed and bound to be satisfactory. Details for the evolving optical design and the progress towards construction of a working model are discussed. Details of the algorithm developed for selecting the optimum colors to be used by the pyrometer are reported. Though final selection of the colors will have to await a final design of the optical system, results using a preliminary optical design are presented.

Frish, Michael↗

Performance Analysis on Fault Tolerant Control System

In a fault tolerant control (FTC) system, a parameter varying FTC law is reconfigured based on fault parameters estimated by fault detection and isolation (FDI) modules. FDI modules require some time to detect fault occurrences in aero-vehicle dynamics. In this paper, an FTC analysis framework is provided to calculate the upper bound of an induced-L(sub 2) norm of an FTC system with existence of false identification and detection time delay. The upper bound is written as a function of a fault detection time and exponential decay rates and has been used to determine which FTC law produces less performance degradation (tracking error) due to false identification. The analysis framework is applied for an FTC system of a HiMAT (Highly Maneuverable Aircraft Technology) vehicle. Index Terms fault tolerant control system, linear parameter varying system, HiMAT vehicle.

Shin, Jong-Yeob↗

Extreme Thunderstorms as Seen by Satellite

Extreme events by their nature fall outside the bounds of routine experience. With imperfect or ambiguous measuring systems, it is appropriate to question whether an unusual measurement represents an extreme event or is the result of instrument errors or other sources of noise. About three weeks after the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite began collecting data in Dec 1997, a thunderstorm was observed over northern Argentina with 85 GHz brightness temperatures below 50 K and 37 GHz brightness temperatures below 70 K (Zipser et al. 2006). These values are well below what had previously been observed from satellite sensors with lower resolution. The 37 GHz brightness temperatures are also well below those measured by TRMM for any other storm in the subsequent 16 years. Without corroborating evidence, it would be natural to suspect a problem with the instrument, or perhaps an irregularity with the platform during the first weeks of the satellite mission. But the TRMM satellite also carries a radar and a lightning sensor, both confirming the presence of an intense thunderstorm. The radar recorded 40+ dBZ (decibels relative to Z) reflectivity up to about 19 km altitude. More than 200 lightning flashes per minute were recorded. That same storm's 19 GHz brightness temperatures below 150 K would normally be interpreted as the result of a low-emissivity water surface (e.g., a lake, or flood waters) if not for the simultaneous measurements of such intense convection. This paper will examine records from TRMM and related satellite sensors including SSMI and AMSR-E to find the strongest signatures resulting from thunderstorms, and distinguishing those from sources of noise. The lowest brightness temperatures resulting from thunderstorms as seen by TRMM have been in Argentina in November and December. For SSMI sensors carried on five DMSP satellites examined so far, the lowest thunderstorm-related brightness temperatures have been from Argentina in November - December and from Minnesota in June-July. The Minnesota cases were associated with spotter reports of large hail, significant severe wind, and tornadoes. Those locations have the record holders for each satellite. This paper will show examples of cases with the lowest brightness temperatures, and map the locations of these and other storms with brightness temperatures nearly as low. Higher resolution data from the field program MC3E and possibly from IPHEX will be considered for context.

Cecil, Daniel J.↗

Error control techniques for satellite and space communications

The performance of NASA Telecommand System was analyzed. A random coding approach was taken to determine the optimum code rate to use in forward error correcting (FEC) system with a fixed signal energy to noise power density ration, but no bandwidth constraint. Capacity and cutoff rates of concatened coding systems were determined. A lower bound on the minium distance growth rate between unmerged codewords was obtained for time invarient convolutional codes.

Costello, D. J., Jr.↗

Transient Ejector Analysis (TEA) code user's guide

A FORTRAN computer program for the semi analytic prediction of unsteady thrust augmenting ejector performance has been developed, based on a theoretical analysis for ejectors. That analysis blends classic self-similar turbulent jet descriptions with control-volume mixing region elements. Division of the ejector into an inlet, diffuser, and mixing region allowed flexibility in the modeling of the physics for each region. In particular, the inlet and diffuser analyses are simplified by a quasi-steady-analysis, justified by the assumption that pressure is the forcing function in those regions. Only the mixing region is assumed to be dominated by viscous effects. The present work provides an overview of the code structure, a description of the required input and output data file formats, and the results for a test case. Since there are limitations to the code for applications outside the bounds of the test case, the user should consider TEA as a research code (not as a production code), designed specifically as an implementation of the proposed ejector theory. Program error flags are discussed, and some diagnostic routines are presented.

Drummond, Colin K.↗

Worst error performance of continuous Kalman filters

The worst error performance of estimation filters is investigated for continuous systems in this paper. The pathological performance study, without assuming any dynamical model such as Markov processes for perturbations, except for its bounded amplitude, will give practical and dependable criteria in establishing the navigation and maneuver strategy in deep space missions.

Nishimura, T.↗

Cockpit automation - In need of a philosophy

Concern has been expressed over the rapid development and deployment of automatic devices in transport aircraft, due mainly to the human interface and particularly the role of automation in inducing human error. The paper discusses the need for coherent philosophies of automation, and proposes several approaches: (1) flight management by exception, which states that as long as a crew stays within the bounds of regulations, air traffic control and flight safety, it may fly as it sees fit; (2) exceptions by forecasting, where the use of forecasting models would predict boundary penetration, rather than waiting for it to happen; (3) goal-sharing, where a computer is informed of overall goals, and subsequently has the capability of checking inputs and aircraft position for consistency with the overall goal or intentions; and (4) artificial intelligence and expert systems, where intelligent machines could mimic human reason.

Wiener, E. L.↗

Computational efficiency of parallel combinatorial OR-tree searches

The performance of parallel combinatorial OR-tree searches is analytically evaluated. This performance depends on the complexity of the problem to be solved, the error allowance function, the dominance relation, and the search strategies. The exact performance may be difficult to predict due to the nondeterminism and anomalies of parallelism. The authors derive the performance bounds of parallel OR-tree searches with respect to the best-first, depth-first, and breadth-first strategies, and verify these bounds by simulation. They show that a near-linear speedup can be achieved with respect to a large number of processors for parallel OR-tree searches. Using the bounds developed, the authors derive sufficient conditions for assuring that parallelism will not degrade performance and necessary conditions for allowing parallelism to have a speedup greater than the ratio of the numbers of processors. These bounds and conditions provide the theoretical foundation for determining the number of processors required to assure a near-linear speedup.

Li, Guo-Jie↗

An efficient approach to ARMA modeling of biological systems with multiple inputs and delays

This paper presents a new approach to AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA or ARX) modeling which automatically seeks the best model order to represent investigated linear, time invariant systems using their input/output data. The algorithm seeks the ARMA parameterization which accounts for variability in the output of the system due to input activity and contains the fewest number of parameters required to do so. The unique characteristics of the proposed system identification algorithm are its simplicity and efficiency in handling systems with delays and multiple inputs. We present results of applying the algorithm to simulated data and experimental biological data In addition, a technique for assessing the error associated with the impulse responses calculated from estimated ARMA parameterizations is presented. The mapping from ARMA coefficients to impulse response estimates is nonlinear, which complicates any effort to construct confidence bounds for the obtained impulse responses. Here a method for obtaining a linearization of this mapping is derived, which leads to a simple procedure to approximate the confidence bounds.

Non-NASA Center↗

Soil Moisture Initialization Error and Subgrid Variability of Precipitation in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting

Offline simulations over the conterminous United States (CONUS) with a land surface model are used to address two issues relevant to the forecasting of large-scale seasonal streamflow: (i) the extent to which errors in soil moisture initialization degrade streamflow forecasts, and (ii) the extent to which a realistic increase in the spatial resolution of forecasted precipitation would improve streamflow forecasts. The addition of error to a soil moisture initialization field is found to lead to a nearly proportional reduction in streamflow forecast skill. The linearity of the response allows the determination of a lower bound for the increase in streamflow forecast skill achievable through improved soil moisture estimation, e.g., through satellite-based soil moisture measurements. An increase in the resolution of precipitation is found to have an impact on large-scale streamflow forecasts only when evaporation variance is significant relative to the precipitation variance. This condition is met only in the western half of the CONUS domain. Taken together, the two studies demonstrate the utility of a continental-scale land surface modeling system as a tool for addressing the science of hydrological prediction.

Streamflow Prediction↗