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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1995

Ground-based measurements of water vapor in the middle atmosphere

We present measurements of the middle atmospheric water vapor mixing ratio profile obtained using the ground-based Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) water vapor millimeter-wave spectrometer (WVMS) instrument at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Table Mountain Observatory. The measurements cover a period of 262 days from January 23, 1992, to October 13, 1992. During this campaign it was possible to retrieve useful daily mixing ratio profiles for 186 days. We thus have a nearly continuous record of water vapor mixing ratios for altitudes from approximately equals 35 to 75 km. The retrievals are obtained using the optimal estimation method. Details of the error analysis are presented, and a technique is introduced that reduces baseline effects and helps to estimate the baseline error. The high-altitude (greater than or approx. equal to 65 km) data show a sharp rise prior to the expected maximum near the summer solstice and a gradual decline in the following months. The mixing ratios generally peak between 55 and 65 km, at which point the mixing ratios are 6 - 7 parts per million by volume. The highest peaks occur in January, May, and October.

Nedoluha, Gerald E.↗
NASA NTRS1996

On the Assessment and Uncertainty of Atmospheric Trace Gas Burden Measurements with High Resolution Infrared Solar Occultation Spectra from Space by the ATMOS Experiment

The Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) instrument is a high resolution Fourier transform spectrometer that measures atmospheric composition from low Earth orbit with infrared solar occultation sounding in the limb geometry. Following an initial flight in 1985, ATMOS participated in the Atmospheric Laboratory for Applications and Science (ATLAS) 1, 2, and 3 Space Shuttle missions in 1992, 1993, and 1994 yielding a total of 440 occultation measurements over a nine year period. The suite of more than thirty atmospheric trace gases profiled includes CO2, O3, N2O, CH4, H2O, NO, NO2, HNO3, HCl, HF, ClONO2, CCl3F, CCl2F2, CHF2Cl, and N2O5. The analysis method has been revised throughout the mission years culminating in the 'version 2' data set. The spectroscopic error analysis is described in the context of supporting the precision estimates reported with the profiles; in addition, systematic uncertainties assessed from the quality of the spectroscopic database are described and tabulated for comparisons with other experiments.

Abrams, M. C.↗
NASA NTRS1974

A simulation of the San Andreas fault experiment

The San Andreas fault experiment (Safe), which employs two laser tracking systems for measuring the relative motion of two points on opposite sides of the fault, has been simulated for an 8-yr observation period. The two tracking stations are located near San Diego on the western side of the fault and near Quincy on the eastern side; they are roughly 900 km apart. Both will simultaneously track laser reflector equipped satellites as they pass near the stations. Tracking of the Beacon Explorer C spacecraft has been simulated for these two stations during August and September for 8 consecutive years. An error analysis of the recovery of the relative location of Quincy from the data has been made, allowing for model errors in the mass of the earth, the gravity field, solar radiation pressure, atmospheric drag, errors in the position of the San Diego site, and biases and noise in the laser systems. The results of this simulation indicate that the distance of Quincy from San Diego will be determined each year with a precision of about 10 cm. Projected improvements in these model parameters and in the laser systems over the next few years will bring the precision to about 1-2 cm by 1980.

Agreen, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Assessment of surface turbulent fluxes using geostationary satellite surface skin temperatures and a mixed layer planetary boundary layer scheme

A method is presented for evaluating the fluxes of sensible and latent heating at the land surface, using satellite-measured surface temperature changes in a composite surface layer-mixed layer representation of the planetary boundary layer. The basic prognostic model is tested by comparison with synoptic station information at sites where surface evaporation climatology is well known. The remote sensing version of the model, using satellite-measured surface temperature changes, is then used to quantify the sharp spatial gradient in surface heating/evaporation across the central United States. An error analysis indicates that perhaps five levels of evaporation are recognizable by these methods and that the chief cause of error is the interaction of errors in the measurement of surface temperature change with errors in the assigment of surface roughness character. Finally, two new potential methods for remote sensing of the land-surface energy balance are suggested which will relay on space-borne instrumentation planned for the 1990s.

Diak, George R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabalistic Risk Analysis and Thermal Margin Process for an Inflatable Aeroshell

Uncertainties always exist in atmospheric entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of thermal protection system (TPS) material. These uncertainties are mitigated in the design by ap-plying margin and factors of safety to the TPS. Entry vehicle TPS is often conservatively over-sized for the heat loads that are experienced along the entry trajectory by stacking worst-case scenarios together. Additionally, the current TPS design and margin process used by NASA offers very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight and the reliability of the heat shield performance [1,3]. A probabilistic margin process can be used to calculate the amount of TPS margin necessary to survive a given entry heat load at a specified level of risk [2,3,4]. The vehicle’s initial entry state (entry velocity, flight path angle, and entry mass) determines the expected atmospheric entry environmental conditions and resulting heat load that the entry vehicle will experience. If there is flexibility in the entry state, then this process can be used to select an appropriate combination of entry state parameters and TPS size to target a desired reentry reliability. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory design, and TPS performance risk trades while preventing excessive TPS margin from being applied. The probabilistic TPS margin process has been performed to determine TPS thickness and entry heating constraints given an acceptable risk level for the Low Earth Orbit Flight Experiment of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) flight project. The process is used in a manner to size the entry heat load for a given flexible TPS (FTPS) thickness so that it meets project reliability standards while allowing the FTPS and the underlying inflatable structure (IS) to be pushed to adequately high temperatures. Since the LOFTID project is an experimental flight demonstration, it is de-sired to drive the FTPS and IS to temperatures that cover a large range of their thermal response models’ applicability. This will allow the thermal response models to be better improved and validated post-flight using LOFTID’s extensive instrumentation embedded within the aeroshell. The presentation demonstrates how uncertainty analysis is carried out using an end-to-end Monte Carlo process where three separate Monte Carlo simulations are run in sequence. The first Monte Carlo simulation operates on the entry trajectory model to generate trajectory parameter dispersions that are fed into the second Monte Carlo simulation. The second Monte Carlo simulation operates on the aerothermodynamics model to generate aeroheating parameter dispersions that are fed into the third Monte Carlo simulation. The third Monte Carlo simulation operates on the FTPS material thermal response model to generate the final FTPS/IS thermal response dispersions. The end-to-end Monte Carlo simulation propagates the uncertainties of each model into the next to quantify the resulting uncertainty of the FTPS/IS thermal response. The fractional contributions of the uncertain parameters in the trajectory, aerothermal, and thermal response models to the variance in the FTPS/IS thermal response is determined as a byproduct of the Monte Carlo analysis. The structural uncertainty of the FTPS thermal response model is evaluated by flight relevant ground testing and model error analysis using test measurements. This probabilistic TPS margin process had never been applied to an entry vehicle and it is one of the LOFTID project’s goals to demonstrate its merits.

Steven A. Tobin↗
DOE OSTI2015

A critical assessment of stellar mass measurement methods

This is the second paper in a series aimed at investigating the main sources of uncertainty in measuring the observable parameters in galaxies from their spectral energy distributions (SEDs). In the first paper we presented a detailed account of the photometric redshift measurements and an error analysis of this process. In this paper we perform a comprehensive study of the main sources of random and systematic error in stellar mass estimates for galaxies, and their relative contributions to the associated error budget. Since there is no prior knowledge of the stellar mass of galaxies (unlike their photometric redshifts), we use mock galaxy catalogs with simulated multi-waveband photometry and known redshift, stellar mass, age and extinction for individual galaxies. The multi-waveband photometry for the simulated galaxies were generated in 13 filters spanning from U-band to mid-infrared wavelengths. Given different parameters affecting stellar mass measurement (photometric signal-to-noise ratios (S/N), SED fitting errors and systematic effects), the inherent degeneracies and correlated errors, we formulated different simulated galaxy catalogs to quantify these effects individually. For comparison, we also generated catalogs based on observed photometric data of real galaxies in the Great Observatories Origins Deep Survey-South field, spanning the same passbands. The simulated and observed catalogs were provided to a number of teams within the Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey collaboration to estimate the stellar masses for individual galaxies. A total of 11 teams participated, with different combinations of stellar mass measurement codes/methods, population synthesis models, star formation histories, extinction and age. For each simulated galaxy, the differences between the input stellar masses, M{sub input}, and those estimated by each team, M{sub est}, is defined as Δlog(M)≡log(M{sub estimated})−log(M{sub input}), and used to identify the most fundamental parameters affecting stellar mass estimate in galaxies, with the following results. (1) No significant bias in Δ log(M) was found among different codes, with all having comparable scatter (σ(Δlog(M))=0.136 dex). The estimated stellar mass values are seriously affected by low photometric S/N, with the rms scatter increasing for galaxies with H{sub AB}>26 mag; (2) A source of error contributing to the scatter in Δ log(M) is found to be due to photometric uncertainties (0.136 dex) and low resolution in age and extinction grids when generating the SED templates; (3) The median of stellar masses among different methods provides a stable measure of the mass associated with any given galaxy (σ(Δlog(M))=0.142 dex); (4) The Δ log(M) values are strongly correlated with deviations in age (defined as the difference between the estimated and expected values), with a weaker correlation with extinction; (5) The rms scatter in the estimated stellar masses due to free parameters (after fixing redshifts and initial mass function) are quantified and found to be σ(Δlog(M))=0.110 dex; (6) Using the observed data, we studied the sensitivity of stellar masses to both the population synthesis codes and inclusion of nebular emission lines and found them to affect the stellar mass by 0.2 and 0.3 dex respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1984

A SEASAT SASS simulation experiment to quantify the errors related to a + or - 3 hour intermittent assimilation technique

A series of SEASAT repeat orbits over a sequence of best Low center positions is simulated by using the Seatrak satellite calculator. These Low centers are, upon appropriate interpolation to hourly positions, Located at various times during the + or - 3 hour assimilation cycle. Error analysis for a sample of best cyclone center positions taken from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans reveals a minimum average error of 1.1 deg of Longitude and a standard deviation of 0.9 deg of Longitude. The magnitude of the average error seems to suggest that by utilizing the + or - 3 hour window in the assimilation cycle, the quality of the SASS data is degraded to the Level of the background. A further consequence of this assimilation scheme is the effect which is manifested as a result of the blending of two or more more juxtaposed vector winds, generally possessing different properties (vector quantity and time). The outcome of this is to reduce gradients in the wind field and to deform isobaric and frontal patterns of the intial field.

Sylvester, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Energetics diagnosis of numerical simulation of atmospheric blocking

A series of systematic comprehensive diagnoses of Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) General Circulation Model (GCM) simulation experiments was performed in reference to predictability and energetics of the Northern Hemisphere blocking circulation. The simulation experiments were performed. The following subject areas are also covered: an analysis of simulated summer blocking episodes; energetics examination of winter blocking simulations in the Northern Hemisphere; normal mode energetic and error analysis of GLA GCM simulations with the different horizontal resolutions during a winter month; and simulations of winter blocking episodes using observed sea surface temperatures.

Kung, Ernest C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A method to determine the kinematics of the lower limbs of a subject pedaling a bicycle using encoders and accelerometers

The goal of this research was to determine kinematic parameters of the lower limbs of a subject pedaling a bicycle. An existing measurement system was used as the basis to develop the model to determine position and acceleration of the limbs. The system consists of an ergometer instrumented to provide position of the pedal (foot), accelerometers to be attached to the lower limbs to measure accelerations, a recorder used for filtering, and a computer instrumented with an A/D board and a decoder board. The system is designed to read and record data from accelerometers and encoders. Software has been developed for data collection, analysis and presentation. Based on the measurement system, a two dimensional analytical model has been developed to determine configuration (position, orientation) and kinematics (velocities, accelerations). The model has been implemented in software and verified by simulation. An error analysis to determine the system's accuracy shows that the expected error is well within the specifications of practical applications. When the physical hardware is completed, NASA researchers hope to use the system developed to determine forces exerted by muscles and forces at articulations. This data will be useful in the development of countermeasures to minimize bone loss experienced by astronauts in microgravity conditions.

Liu, Shih-Ching↗
DOE OSTI2023

X-ray continuum spectroscopy of inertial confinement fusion implosions at the National Ignition Facility

A methodology for measuring x-ray continuum spectra of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions is described. The method relies on the use of ConSpec, a high-throughput spectrometer using a highly annealed pyrolytic graphite crystal , which measures the spectra in the ≃20–30 keV range. Due to its conical shape, the crystal is sagittally focusing a Bragg-reflected x-ray spectrum into a line, which enhances the recorded x-ray emission signal above the high neutron-induced background accompanying ICF implosions at the National Ignition Facility. To improve the overall measurement accuracy, the sensitivity of the spectrometer measured in an off-line x-ray laboratory setting was revised. The error analysis was expanded to include the accuracy of the off-line measurements, the effect of the neutron-induced background, as well as the influence of possible errors in alignment of the instrument to the ICF target. Here we demonstrate how the improved methodology is applied in the analysis of ConSpec data with examples of a relatively low-neutron-yield implosion using a tritium–hydrogen–deuterium mix as a fuel and a high-yield deuterium–tritium (DT) implosion producing high level of the background. In both cases, the shape of the measured spectrum agrees with the exponentially decaying spectral shape of bremsstrahlung emission to within ±10%. In the case of the high-yield DT experiment, non-monotonic deviations slightly exceeding the measurement uncertainties are observed and discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automated label flows for excited states of correlation functions in lattice gauge theory

Extracting excited states from lattice gauge theory correlation functions can be achieved through $χ^2$ minimization fits or algebraic approaches such as the variational method and Prony's method. Performing any kind of error analysis often leads to overlapping confidence regions of model parameters, even when the spectrum is not particularly dense. To correctly estimate errors, one must beware of mislabeling the states. In this work, we provide an algorithm that we call automated label flows which consistently and systematically identifies a deterministic labeling of states. This is a black-box approach in the sense that it gives a sensible set of labels without user guidance. Further, as an example, we pair one black box method with another, analyzing a lattice correlation function from real data using automated label flows in the context of Prony's method.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1972

Preliminary study of the application of the Timation 3 satellite to earth physics

The Timation 3 is a timing and navigation satellite originally planned for launch in December 1972 into a circular orbit at 98 deg inclination 14,000 km altitude with gravity gradient stabilization. An error analysis indicates a satellite position uncertainty of about one meter, 80 percent of which is attributable to the assumed gravity model errors. The remaining uncertainties have a period equal to that of the satellites and can be filtered out yielding an effective uncertainty of about 10 cm in the study of phenomena having different periodicities. The accomplishment of these results depends on a careful consideration of solar radiation pressure taking account of the spacecraft reflecting properties and variations in the presentation area. Consideration is also given to the displacement of the laser reflectors from the center of mass of the spacecraft and to the dynamic coupling of any libration in attitude with the orbital motion. The results indicate that a good set of well distribution laser observations of Timation 3 could yield determinations of polar motion, sea floor spreading, solid earth tides, and earth rotation at the 10 cm level.

Carpenter, L.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Inference of Ice Cloud Properties from High-spectral Resolution Infrared Observations

The theoretical basis is explored for inferring the microphysical properties of ice crystal from high-spectral resolution infrared observations. A radiative transfer model is employed to simulate spectral radiances to address relevant issues. The extinction and absorption efficiencies of individual ice crystals, assumed as hexagonal columns for large particles and droxtals for small particles, are computed from a combination of the finite- difference time-domain (FDTD) technique and a composite method. The corresponding phase functions are computed from a combination of FDTD and an improved geometric optics method (IGOM). Bulk scattering properties are derived by averaging the single- scattering properties of individual particles for 30 particle size distributions developed from in situ measurements and for additional four analytical Gamma size distributions for small particles. The non-sphericity of ice crystals is shown to have a significant impact on the radiative signatures in the infrared (IR) spectrum; the spherical particle approximation for inferring ice cloud properties may result in an overest&ation of the optical thickness and an inaccurate retrieval of effective particle size. Furthermore, we show that the error associated with the use of the Henyey-Greenstein phase function can be as larger as 1 K in terms of brightness temperature for larger particle effective size at some strong scattering wavenumbers. For small particles, the difference between the two phase functions is much less, with brightness temperatures generally differing by less than 0.4 K. The simulations undertaken in this study show that the slope of the IR brightness temperature spectrum between 790-960/cm is sensitive to the effective particle size. Furthermore, a strong sensitivity of IR brightness temperature to cloud optical thickness is noted within the l050-1250/cm region. Based on this spectral feature, a technique is presented for the simultaneous retrieval of the visible optical thickness and effective particle size from high spectral resolution infrared data under ice cloudy con&tion. The error analysis shows that the uncertainty of the retrieved optical thickness and effective particle size has a small range of variation. The error for retrieving particle size in conjunction with an uncertainty of 5 K in cloud'temperature, or a surface temperature uncertainty of 2.5 K, is less than 15%. The corresponding e m r in the uncertainty of optical thickness is within 5-2096, depending on the value of cloud optical thickness. The applicability of the technique is demonstrated using the aircraft-based High- resolution Interferometer Sounder (HIS) data from the Subsonic Aircraft: Contrail and Cloud Effects Special Study (SUCCESS) in 1996 and the First ISCCP Regional Experiment - Arctic Clouds Experiment (FIRE-ACE) in 1998.

Huang, Hung-Lung↗
NASA NTRS2005

Cross Section Sensitivity and Propagated Errors in HZE Exposures

It has long been recognized that galactic cosmic rays are of such high energy that they tend to pass through available shielding materials resulting in exposure of astronauts and equipment within space vehicles and habitats. Any protection provided by shielding materials result not so much from stopping such particles but by changing their physical character in interaction with shielding material nuclei forming, hopefully, less dangerous species. Clearly, the fidelity of the nuclear cross-sections is essential to correct specification of shield design and sensitivity to cross-section error is important in guiding experimental validation of cross-section models and database. We examine the Boltzmann transport equation which is used to calculate dose equivalent during solar minimum, with units (cSv/yr), associated with various depths of shielding materials. The dose equivalent is a weighted sum of contributions from neutrons, protons, light ions, medium ions and heavy ions. We investigate the sensitivity of dose equivalent calculations due to errors in nuclear fragmentation cross-sections. We do this error analysis for all possible projectile-fragment combinations (14,365 such combinations) to estimate the sensitivity of the shielding calculations to errors in the nuclear fragmentation cross-sections. Numerical differentiation with respect to the cross-sections will be evaluated in a broad class of materials including polyethylene, aluminum and copper. We will identify the most important cross-sections for further experimental study and evaluate their impact on propagated errors in shielding estimates.

Heinbockel, John H.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Practical Application of PRA as an Integrated Design Tool for Space Systems

This paper presents the application of the first comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) during the design phase of a joint NASA/NOAA weather satellite program, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Series R (GOES-R). GOES-R is the next generation weather satellite primarily to help understand the weather and help save human lives. PRA has been used at NASA for Human Space Flight for many years. PRA was initially adopted and implemented in the operational phase of manned space flight programs and more recently for the next generation human space systems. Since its first use at NASA, PRA has become recognized throughout the Agency as a method of assessing complex mission risks as part of an overall approach to assuring safety and mission success throughout project lifecycles. PRA is now included as a requirement during the design phase of both NASA next generation manned space vehicles as well as for high priority robotic missions. The influence of PRA on GOES-R design and operation concepts are discussed in detail. The GOES-R PRA is unique at NASA for its early implementation. It also represents a pioneering effort to integrate risks from both Spacecraft (SC) and Ground Segment (GS) to fully assess the probability of achieving mission objectives. PRA analysts were actively involved in system engineering and design engineering to ensure that a comprehensive set of technical risks were correctly identified and properly understood from a design and operations perspective. The analysis included an assessment of SC hardware and software, SC fault management system, GS hardware and software, common cause failures, human error, natural hazards, solar weather and infrastructure (such as network and telecommunications failures, fire). PRA findings directly resulted in design changes to reduce SC risk from micro-meteoroids. PRA results also led to design changes in several SC subsystems, e.g. propulsion, guidance, navigation and control (GNC), communications, mechanisms, and command and data handling (C&DH). The fault tree approach assisted in the development of the fault management system design. Human error analysis, which examined human response to failure, indicated areas where automation could reduce the overall probability of gaps in operation by half. In addition, the PRA brought to light many potential root causes of system disruptions, including earthquakes, inclement weather, solar storms, blackouts and other extreme conditions not considered in the typical reliability and availability analyses. Ultimately the PRA served to identify potential failures that, when mitigated, resulted in a more robust design, as well as to influence the program's concept of operations. The early and active integration of PRA with system and design engineering provided a well-managed approach for risk assessment that increased reliability and availability, optimized lifecyc1e costs, and unified the SC and GS developments.

Kalia, Prince↗
NASA NTRS2011

Navigation Strategies for Primitive Solar System Body Rendezvous and Proximity Operations

A wealth of scientific knowledge regarding the composition and evolution of the solar system can be gained through reconnaissance missions to primitive solar system bodies. This paper presents analysis of a baseline navigation strategy designed to address the unique challenges of primitive body navigation. Linear covariance and Monte Carlo error analysis was performed on a baseline navigation strategy using simulated data from a· design reference mission (DRM). The objective of the DRM is to approach, rendezvous, and maintain a stable orbit about the near-Earth asteroid 4660 Nereus. The outlined navigation strategy and resulting analyses, however, are not necessarily limited to this specific target asteroid as they may he applicable to a diverse range of mission scenarios. The baseline navigation strategy included simulated data from Deep Space Network (DSN) radiometric tracking and optical image processing (OpNav). Results from the linear covariance and Monte Carlo analyses suggest the DRM navigation strategy is sufficient to approach and perform proximity operations in the vicinity of the target asteroid with meter-level accuracy.

Getzandanner, Kenneth M.↗