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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30

Optimizing Seasonal‐To‐Decadal Analog Forecasts With a Learned Spatially‐Weighted Mask

Abstract Seasonal‐to‐decadal climate prediction is crucial for decision‐making in a number of industries, but forecasts on these timescales have limited skill. Here, we develop a data‐driven method for selecting optimal analogs for seasonal‐to‐decadal analog forecasting. Using an interpretable neural network, we learn a spatially‐weighted mask that quantifies how important each grid point is for determining whether two climate states will evolve similarly. We show that analogs selected using this weighted mask provide more skillful forecasts than analogs that are selected using traditional spatially‐uniform methods. This method is tested on two prediction problems using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Grand Ensemble: multi‐year prediction of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and seasonal prediction of El Niño Southern Oscillation. This work demonstrates a methodical approach to selecting analogs that may be useful for improving seasonal‐to‐decadal forecasts and understanding their sources of skill.

Geology↗

Infinite neural network quantum states: entanglement and training dynamics

We study infinite limits of neural network quantum states (∞-NNQS), which exhibit representation power through ensemble statistics, and also tractable gradient descent dynamics. Ensemble averages of entanglement entropies are expressed in terms of neural network correlators, and architectures that exhibit volume-law entanglement are presented. The analytic calculations of entanglement entropy bound are tractable because the ensemble statistics are simplified in the Gaussian process limit. A general framework is developed for studying the gradient descent dynamics of neural network quantum states (NNQS), using a quantum state neural tangent kernel (QS-NTK). For ∞-NNQS the training dynamics is simplified, since the QS-NTK becomes deterministic and constant. An analytic solution is derived for quantum state supervised learning, which allows an ∞-NNQS to recover any target wavefunction. Numerical experiments on finite and infinite NNQS in the transverse field Ising model and Fermi Hubbard model demonstrate excellent agreement with theory. ∞-NNQS opens up new opportunities for studying entanglement and training dynamics in other physics applications, such as in finding ground states.

quantum state supervised learning↗

Lithium-Ion Battery Diagnostics Using Electrochemical Impedance via Machine-Learning

Diagnosing battery states such as health, state-of-charge, or temperature is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of electrochemical energy storage systems. While some states, such as temperature, may be measured using cheap sensors, accurate diagnosis of battery health metrics usually requires time-consuming performance measurements, making them infeasible for use in real-world operation. These health metrics can be measured during lab-testing and then estimated on-line using predictive life models or via state observer algorithms such as Kalman filters, but these predictive methods should be supplemented by actual measurement of battery health whenever possible to ensure reliability. Rapid measurement of battery health may be done by various types of fast diagnostic techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which can be performed in only a few minutes and require only a fraction of the energy and power needed for a full charge and discharge measurement. But there is a substantial challenge for estimating battery health using EIS data, as EIS is sensitive to cell temperature, state-of-charge, current, and resting time in addition to health. Thus, utilizing EIS data to predict battery capacity requires correcting for all these additional variables, a task that is extremely difficult to handle analytically. This talk utilizes machine-learning methods to estimate the effectiveness of battery capacity prediction from EIS data, leveraging a data set of hundreds of EIS measurements recorded at varying temperature and state-of-charge throughout a 500-day aging study of 32 commercial, large-format NMC-Graphite lithium-ion batteries. Using EIS as input to machine-learning models is complicated by the nonlinear response of impedance to battery health, temperature, and state-of-charge, as well as the collinearity between the impedance response at neighboring frequencies, which can easily lead to overfit models. To train robust models, features from EIS data need to be extracted from the data or some subset of critical frequencies selected. Many approaches for extracting and selecting features from EIS data from electrochemical analysis and machine-learning fields were identified for analysis: using the entire raw spectra; selection of one, two, or many frequencies from the entire spectra; selecting interesting points from the EIS measurement using domain knowledge; fitting EIS with an equivalent-circuit model; calculating statistics on the raw impedance values; and reducing the dimensionality of the data using unsupervised linear (principal component analysis) and non-linear (uniform manifold approximation and projection) methods. These approaches were rigorously compared using a machine-learning pipeline approach, training linear, Gaussian process, and random forest regression models and quantifying performance using cross-validation as well as a held-out test set. An artificial neural network model trained on the raw spectra was also tested. Promising pipelines were fine-tuned via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using cross-validation loss and training with class-specific weights to counter data set imbalance. The most reliable method for utilizing impedance in this work was the selection of two optimal frequencies through an exhaustive search, resulting in about 2% mean absolute error on test data for both Gaussian process and random forest model architectures. Interrogation of a variety of models reveals critical frequencies of 100 Hz and 103 Hz for this data set, though the optimal set of frequencies is not necessarily intuitive, i.e., the best performing models are not simply those that use impedance at frequencies that have the highest correlation to the relative discharge capacity. The best performing model is an ensemble model, which is able to predict battery capacity with 1.9% mean absolute error for unseen cells using impedance recorded at a variety of temperatures and states-of-charge.

battery↗

Screening Cu-Zeolites for Methane Activation Using Curriculum-Based Training

Machine learning (ML), when used synergistically with atomistic simulations, has recently emerged as a powerful tool for accelerated catalyst discovery. However, the application of these techniques has been limited by the lack of interpretable and transferable ML models. In this work, we propose a curriculum-based training (CBT) philosophy to systematically develop reactive machine learning potentials (rMLPs) for high-throughput screening of zeolite catalysts. Our CBT approach combines several different types of calculations to gradually teach the ML model about the relevant regions of the reactive potential energy surface. The resulting rMLPs are accurate, transferable, and interpretable. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach by exhaustively screening thousands of [CuOCu] 2+ sites across hundreds of Cu-zeolites for the industrially relevant methane activation reaction. Specifically, this large-scale analysis of the entire International Zeolite Association (IZA) database identifies a set of previously unexplored zeolites (i.e., MEI, ATN, EWO, and CAS) that show the highest ensemble-averaged rates for [CuOCu] 2+ -catalyzed methane activation. We believe that this CBT philosophy can be generally applied to other zeolite-catalyzed reactions and, subsequently, to other types of heterogeneous catalysts. Thus, this represents an important step toward overcoming the long-standing barriers within the computational heterogeneous catalysis community.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Strong Lens Discoveries in DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys DR10 with Two Deep Learning Architectures

Abstract We have conducted a search for strong gravitational lensing systems in the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Imaging Surveys Data Release 10 (DR10). This paper is the fourth in a series of searches. This is the first catalog of lens candidates covering nearly the entirety of the extragalactic sky south of declination δ ≈ +32 ∘ , all observed by DECam, covering ∼14,000 deg 2 . We impose a z -band magnitude cut of <20 in AB magnitude. We deploy a residual neural network and EfficientNet as an ensemble trained on a compilation of known lensing systems and high-grade candidates as well as nonlenses in the same footprint. The predictions from these two base models are aggregated using a meta-learner. After applying our ensemble to the survey data, we exclude known candidates and systems, and use our own visual inspection portal to rank images in the top 0.01 percentile of all neural network recommendations. We have found 811 lens candidates, five of which are confirmed through Euclid Quick Data Release (Q1). These include 484 new candidates in the Legacy Surveys DR9 footprint, all parts of which have been searched for strong lenses at least once before, either by our group or others. Combining the discoveries from this work with those from the first three papers in this series (335, 1210, and 1512), we have discovered a total of 3868 new candidates in the DESI Legacy Surveys.

Inchausti, Jose Carlos [University of San Francisc↗

State Predictor of Classification Cognitive Engine Applied to Channel Fading

This study presents the application of machine learning (ML) to a space-to-ground communication link, showing how ML can be used to detect the presence of detrimental channel fading. Using this channel state information, the communication link can be used more efficiently by reducing the amount of lost data during fading. The motivation for this work is based on channel fading observed during on-orbit operations with NASA's Space Communication and Navigation (SCaN) testbed on the International Space Station (ISS). This paper presents the process to extract a target concept (fading and not-fading) from the raw data. The pre-processing and data exploration effort is explained in detail, with a list of assumptions made for parsing and labelling the dataset. The model selection process is explained, specifically emphasizing the benefits of using an ensemble of algorithms with majority voting for binary classification of the channel state. Experimental results are shown, highlighting how an end-to-end communication system can utilize knowledge of the channel fading status to identity fading and take appropriate action. With a laboratory testbed to emulate channel fading, the overall performance is compared to standard adaptive methods without fading knowledge, such as adaptive coding and modulation.

Fading↗

Modeling laser-driven ion acceleration with deep learning

Developments in machine learning promise to ameliorate some of the challenges of modeling complex physical systems through neural-network-based surrogate models. High-intensity, short-pulse lasers can be used to accelerate ions to mega-electronvolt energies, but to model such interactions requires computationally expensive techniques such as particle-in-cell simulations. Multilayer neural networks allow one to take a relatively sparse ensemble of simulations and generate a surrogate model that can be used to rapidly search the parameter space of interest. In this study, we created an ensemble of over 1,000 simulations modeling laser-driven ion acceleration and developed a surrogate to study the resulting parameter space. A neural-network-based approach allows for rapid feature discovery not possible for traditional parameter scans given the computational cost. A notable observation made during this study was the dependence of ion energy on the pre-plasma gradient length scale. While this methodology harbors great promise for ion acceleration, it has ready application to all topics in which large-scale parameter scans are restricted by significant computational cost or relatively large, but sparse, domains.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Multi-scale Multi-physics Scientific Machine Learning for Water Cycle Extreme Events Identification, Labelling, Representation, and Characterization

Impacts of climate are usually felt through extreme events such as droughts, floods, thunderstorms, windstorms, wildfires, and so on, that are intimately tied to the water cycle. Predicting the frequency and severity of extreme events under climate change remains a significant challenge; meanwhile, the mechanisms and impacts of these extremes are far from well understood. There are several major science challenges: (1) Lack of labelled extreme events data and missing standards in defining extremes; (2) Computational demand of high-resolution ensemble climate modeling; (3) Modeling the multiscale multi-physics hierarchical structure of compound extremes; (4) Lack of understanding of mechanisms of extreme events; (5) Large uncertainty in extreme events impacts on infrastructure; (6) Subjective assessment of weather-related risk from seasonal to multi-decadal time scales and lack of metrics for risk assessment and mitigation control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning for Mapping Multipactor Susceptibility in RF Systems: Capabilities and Generalization Constraints

Multipactor is a surface-driven electron avalanche phenomenon that degrades the performance and reliability of radio-frequency (RF) systems in particle accelerator and vacuum electronics applications. Multipactor behavior in a given device structure is conventionally assessed through susceptibility charts, which provide a parameter-space characterization of the instability. In this work, we assess the capabilities of machine-learning (ML) models to learn and predict such susceptibility charts and analyze the constraints governing their generalization across materials. Using a simulation-derived dataset spanning six distinct secondary-electron-yield material profiles in a canonical two-surface planar geometry, we train supervised regression models and artificial neural networks to predict the time-averaged electron growth rate, δavg, across the relevant parameter space. Model performance is evaluated using metrics that explicitly probe the structure of susceptibility charts, including Intersection over Union, Structural Similarity Index, and correlation analysis. Tree-based ensemble models outperform neural-network models in reconstructing susceptibility regions and in generalizing across material domains. Principal-component analysis reveals disjoint material feature distributions, indicating that the piecewise mode structure of multipactor susceptibility is difficult to represent with a single global model and that generalization is constrained by data coverage rather than by model complexity. An exhaustive reduced-coverage study further shows that sparse material-space coverage can yield mean performance in the same general range but producing large variability in the susceptibility-region overlap. These results clarify the capabilities of ML-based surrogate models for parameter-space characterization of multipactor discharge. They also provide guidance for their appropriate use in RF system design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Unsupervised learning approaches to characterizing heterogeneous samples using X-ray single-particle imaging

One of the outstanding analytical problems in X-ray single-particle imaging (SPI) is the classification of structural heterogeneity, which is especially difficult given the low signal-to-noise ratios of individual patterns and the fact that even identical objects can yield patterns that vary greatly when orientation is taken into consideration. Proposed here are two methods which explicitly account for this orientation-induced variation and can robustly determine the structural landscape of a sample ensemble. The first, termed common-line principal component analysis (PCA), provides a rough classification which is essentially parameter free and can be run automatically on any SPI dataset. The second method, utilizing variation auto-encoders (VAEs), can generate 3D structures of the objects at any point in the structural landscape. Both these methods are implemented in combination with the noise-tolerant expand–maximize–compress (EMC) algorithm and its utility is demonstrated by applying it to an experimental dataset from gold nanoparticles with only a few thousand photons per pattern. Both discrete structural classes and continuous deformations are recovered. These developments diverge from previous approaches of extracting reproducible subsets of patterns from a dataset and open up the possibility of moving beyond the study of homogeneous sample sets to addressing open questions on topics such as nanocrystal growth and dynamics, as well as phase transitions which have not been externally triggered.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

On the practical usefulness of the Hardware Efficient Ansatz

Variational Quantum Algorithms (VQAs) and Quantum Machine Learning (QML) models train a parametrized quantum circuit to solve a given learning task. The success of these algorithms greatly hinges on appropriately choosing an ansatz for the quantum circuit. Perhaps one of the most famous ansatzes is the one-dimensional layered Hardware Efficient Ansatz (HEA), which seeks to minimize the effect of hardware noise by using native gates and connectives. The use of this HEA has generated a certain ambivalence arising from the fact that while it suffers from barren plateaus at long depths, it can also avoid them at shallow ones. In this work, we attempt to determine whether one should, or should not, use a HEA. We rigorously identify scenarios where shallow HEAs should likely be avoided (e.g., VQA or QML tasks with data satisfying a volume law of entanglement). More importantly, we identify a Goldilocks scenario where shallow HEAs could achieve a quantum speedup: QML tasks with data satisfying an area law of entanglement. We provide examples for such scenario (such as Gaussian diagonal ensemble random Hamiltonian discrimination), and we show that in these cases a shallow HEA is always trainable and that there exists an anti-concentration of loss function values. Our work highlights the crucial role that input states play in the trainability of a parametrized quantum circuit, a phenomenon that is verified in our numerics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The geometry of signal space: a case study of direct mapping between seismic signals and event distribution

SUMMARY Under favourable circumstances, seismic waveforms corresponding to an ensemble of events related by a common, spatially distributed process collectively exhibit a regular, signal-space geometry. When events in the ensemble have a common, or nearly common, source mechanism, this geometry is a distorted image of the distribution of events in the source region. The signal-space image can be visualized using a relatively simple waveform alignment and projection operation. Ensemble waveform correlation measurements can be inverted to estimate the distribution of the events in the source region, up to an arbitrary rotation, reflection and scaling, with residual distortion. We demonstrate these concepts with synthetic waveforms and with observations of long-wall mining induced seismicity for which substantial ground truth information is available. Our experience with these data has implications for location, correlation detection and machine learning and possible application to studies of repeating events in induced, volcanic and glacial seismicity. Our results place limits on the widely held assumption that waveform correlation is a useful measure of event separation. We suggest that the constraints on event separation need to be evaluated in the context of a population of related events, whose waveforms sample the signal space image of the source region. A better indicator of event separation is the length of the shortest path in signal space along the image.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

LL18-Signal Analysis-NDD2Ad (Final Report)

Under favorable circumstances, seismic waveforms corresponding to an ensemble of events related by a common, spatially-distributed process collectively exhibit a regular, signal-space geometry. When events in the ensemble have a common, or nearly common, source mechanism, this geometry is a distorted image of the distribution of events in the source region. The signal space image can be visualized using a relatively simple waveform alignment and projection operation. Ensemble waveform correlation measurements can be inverted to estimate the distribution of the events in the source region, up to an arbitrary rotation, reflection, and scaling with residual distortion. We demonstrate these concepts with synthetic waveforms and with observations of long-wall mining induced seismicity for which substantial ground truth information is available. Our experience with these data has implications for location, correlation detection and machine learning, and possible application to studies of repeating events in induced, volcanic, and glacial seismicity. Our results place limits on the widely-held assumption that waveform correlation is a useful measure of event separation. We suggest that the constraints on event separation need to be evaluated in the context of a population of related events, whose waveforms sample the signal space image of the source region. A better indicator of event separation is the length of the shortest path in signal space along the image.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2–CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks are analyzed. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi-dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties, are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2–CAM6 PPE is publicly available and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g., coupling to the land surface).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Python Library for Monte Carlo Simulations with Ab Initio and Machine-Learned Interatomic Potentials

There is a growing need in the simulation community for software that provides a transparent, reproducible, usable, and extensible (TRUE) Monte Carlo (MC) simulation framework employing energies from ab initio methods and machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs). We introduce a Python library (ASE-MC) that adds Monte Carlo functionality to the Atomic Simulation Environment (ASE) package. Now, we can combine the powerful tools used to build systems and perform ab initio and MLIP in ASE with MC simulation algorithms to sample the configurational space with a concise Python script. After presenting the design philosophy, we demonstrate the flexibility of our approach using selected examples. These example simulations include liquid water described with a message-passing MLIP in the canonical and isothermal–isobaric ensembles, sampling the characteristic dihedral angle of biphenyl and comparing an MLIP to first-principles calculations, and a grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation of ammonia adsorption on Pt(111). These examples showcase the main features of the software, which include flexibility in the choice of ab initio or MLIP engine, ab initio or MLIP grand canonical MC with cavity bias insertions and deletions, the ability to add custom MC moves to the move set, and how users can condense complex MC workflows into a single Python script. Finally, this library serves as a framework for reproducible Monte Carlo simulations, facilitating easy reproduction of the work and application to new systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript analyzing ELM-FATES parameter sensitivity under pre-fire and postfire scenarios using machine learning

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript “Fire Severity-Dependent Shifts in Vegetation Parameter Sensitivity: A Pre- and Post-Fire Analysis Using ELM-FATES and Explainable AI” submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (Zahura et al. 2026). The study examines vegetation physiological parameters controlling pre-fire and post-fire vegetation dynamics. To support this analysis, 73 vegetation parameters in Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (Fisher et al., 2018) , which is coupled with E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) land model (ELM, ELM-FATES), were perturbed using a Sobol sequence to generate 1,024 ensemble members for two plant functional types: needleleaf evergreen extratropical trees (NEET) and C3 grass. Simulations were conducted for the pre-fire period (2016) and post-fire period (2018–2023). Burn severity was represented by modifying the Nesterov index in FATES to 75,000, 150,000, and 300,000 for low, moderate, and high severity, respectively. A no-fire scenario was also included. Simulations were performed for 16 grid cells in the American River Watershed across different burn severities and plant functional types. XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) models were trained using the parameter ensembles and ELM-FATES-simulated outputs, including leaf area index (LAI), gross primary productivity (GPP), aboveground biomass, vegetation evaporation, transpiration, and soil evaporation. Models were trained separately for each year and burn severity, followed by SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis to identify changes in dominant parameters after fire disturbance. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. The data package contains the ELM-FATES simulation data. The scripts and data related to the analysis will be added later. The inputs and outputs from ELM-FATES are inside the “FATES” folder. “FATES_domain_surface” contains the domain and surface netcdfs that were used to run ELM-FATES in the study area. “FATES_parameters” contains the 1024 ensembles that were generated using Sobol sequence. “FATES_outputs” folder contains ELM-FATES simulated variables. All files are .csv and .nc (NetCDF).

Aboveground biomass↗

Deep learning of accurate force field of ferroelectric HfO 2

The discovery of ferroelectricity in HfO 2 -based thin films opens up new opportunities for using this silicon-compatible ferroelectric to realize low-power logic circuits and high-density nonvolatile memories. The functional performances of ferroelectrics are intimately related to their dynamic responses to external stimuli such as electric fields at finite temperatures. Molecular dynamics is an ideal technique for investigating dynamical processes on large length and time scales, though its applications to new materials are often hindered by the limited availability and accuracy of classical force fields. Here we present a deep neural network–based interatomic force field of HfO 2 learned from ab initio data using a concurrent learning procedure. The model potential is able to predict structural properties such as elastic constants, equation of states, phonon dispersion relationships, and phase transition barriers of various hafnia polymorphs with accuracy comparable with density functional theory calculations. Here, the validity of this model potential is further confirmed by the reproduction of experimental sequences of temperature-driven ferroelectric-paraelectric phase transitions of HfO 2 with isobaric-isothermal ensemble molecular dynamics simulations. We suggest a general approach to extend the model potential of HfO 2 to related material systems including dopants and defects.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗