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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A Demand Bidding Model for Multi-Product Industrial Plants

The growing contribution of renewable energy sources has increased volatility and uncertainty in electricity markets, challenging traditional grid operation paradigms. Demand bidding (DB), a market participation model where (large) electricity users communicate their willingness to pay for electricity to the grid operator, was shown in previous work to enhance grid stability and lower generation cost. We present a DB model for multi-product industrial plants, based on an extended optimal power flow problem where the plant dynamics are represented using autoregressive with extra inputs (ARX) models. We compare DB to price-based demand-side management, showing that, under certain assumptions, the two approaches are equivalent, while DB provides more transparency and predictability to the grid operator. A case study based on an industrial air separation unit is discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2006

Effects of Nuclear Cross Sections at Different Energies on the Radiation Hazard from Galactic Cosmic Rays

The radiation hazard for astronauts from galactic cosmic rays is a major obstacle in long duration human space explorations. Space radiation transport codes have been developed to calculate radiation environment on missions to the Moon, Mars or beyond. We have studied how uncertainties in fragmentation cross sections at different energies affect the accuracy of predictions from such radiation transport. We find that, in deep space, cross sections between 0.3 and 0.85 GeV/u usually have the largest effect on dose-equivalent behind shielding in solar minimum GCR environments, and cross sections between 0.85 and 1.2 GeV/u have the largest effect in solar maximum GCR environments. At the International Space Station, cross sections at higher energies have the largest effect due to the geomagnetic cutoff.

Lin, Z. W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

How Can Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts Be Used to Lower Costs and Improve Reliability in Power Spot Markets? A Review and Application to Flexiramp Requirements

Net load uncertainty in electricity spot markets is rapidly growing. There are five general approaches by which system operators and market participants can use probabilistic forecasts of wind, solar, and load to help manage this uncertainty. These include operator situation awareness, resource risk hedging, reserves procurement, definition of contingencies, and explicit stochastic optimization. We review these approaches, and then provide a case study in which a method for using probabilistic solar forecasts to define needs for reserves is developed and evaluated. The case study has three parts. First, we describe building blocks for enhancing the Watt-Sun solar forecasting system to produce probabilistic irradiance and power forecasts. Second, relationships between Watt-Sun forecasts for multiple sites in California and the system's need for flexible ramp capability (flexiramp) are defined by machine learning and statistical methods. Third, the performance of present methods to defining flexiramp requirements, which are not conditioned on weather and renewables forecasts, is compared with that of probabilistic solar forecast-based requirements, using a multi-timescale production costing model with an 1820-bus representation of the WECC power system. Significant potential savings in fuel and flexiramp procurement costs from using solar-informed reserve requirements are found.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A theoretical study on quasifission and fusion–fission processes in heavy-ion collisions

Despite recent advances and focus on rigorous uncertainty quantification for microscopic models of quantum many-body systems, the uncertainty on the dynamics of those systems has been underexplored. To address this, we have used time-dependent Hartree-Fock to examine the model uncertainty for a collection of low-energy, heavy-ion fusion reactions. Fusion reactions at near-barrier energies represent a rich test-bed for the dynamics of quantum many-body systems owing to the complex interplay of collective excitation, transfer, and static effects that determine the fusion probability of a given system. The model uncertainty is sizable for many of the systems studied and the primary contribution arises from static properties that are ill-constrained, such as the neutron radius of neutron-rich nuclei. These large uncertainties motivate the use of information from reactions to better constrain existing models and to infer static properties from reaction data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantified limits of the nuclear landscape

The chart of the nuclides is limited by particle drip lines beyond which nuclear stability to proton or neutron emission is lost. Predicting the range of particle-bound isotopes poses an appreciable challenge for nuclear theory as it involves extreme extrapolations of nuclear masses well beyond the regions where experimental information is available. Still, quantified extrapolations are crucial for a wide variety of applications, including the modeling of stellar nucleosynthesis. We use microscopic nuclear global mass models, current mass data, and Bayesian methodology to provide quantified predictions of proton and neutron separation energies as well as Bayesian probabilities of existence throughout the nuclear landscape all the way to the particle drip lines. Here, we apply nuclear density functional theory with several energy density functionals. We also consider two global mass models often used in astrophysical nucleosynthesis simulations. To account for uncertainties, Bayesian Gaussian processes are trained on the separation-energy residuals for each individual model, and the resulting predictions are combined via Bayesian model averaging. This framework allows to account for systematic and statistical uncertainties and propagate them to extrapolative predictions. We establish and characterize the drip-line regions where the probability that the nucleus is particle- bound decreases from 1 to 0. In these regions, we provide quantified predictions for one- and two-nucleon separation energies. According to our Bayesian model averaging analysis, 7759 nuclei with Z ≤ 119 have a probability of existence ≥ 0.5. The extrapolation results obtained in this study will be put through stringent tests when new experimental information on existence and masses of exotic nuclei becomes available. In this respect, the quantified landscape of nuclear existence obtained in this study should be viewed as a dynamical prediction that will be fine-tuned when new experimental information and improved global mass models become available.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2012

Usage of NASA's Near Real-Time Solar and Meteorological Data for Monitoring Building Energy Systems Using RETScreen International's Performance Analysis Module

This paper describes building energy system production and usage monitoring using examples from the new RETScreen Performance Analysis Module, called RETScreen Plus. The module uses daily meteorological (i.e., temperature, humidity, wind and solar, etc.) over a period of time to derive a building system function that is used to monitor building performance. The new module can also be used to target building systems with enhanced technologies. If daily ambient meteorological and solar information are not available, these are obtained over the internet from NASA's near-term data products that provide global meteorological and solar information within 3-6 days of real-time. The accuracy of the NASA data are shown to be excellent for this purpose enabling RETScreen Plus to easily detect changes in the system function and efficiency. This is shown by several examples, one of which is a new building at the NASA Langley Research Center that uses solar panels to provide electrical energy for building energy and excess energy for other uses. The system shows steady performance within the uncertainties of the input data. The other example involves assessing the reduction in energy usage by an apartment building in Sweden before and after an energy efficiency upgrade. In this case, savings up to 16% are shown.

Paul W Stackhouse, Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Neutron-neutron scattering length from the 6 He(p,pα)nn reaction

We propose a novel method to measure the neutron-neutron scattering length using the 6 He(p,pα)nn reaction in inverse kinematics at high energies. The method is based on the final-state interaction (FSI) between the neutrons after the sudden knockout of the α particle. We show that the details of the neutron-neutron relative-energy distribution allow for a precise extraction of the s-wave scattering length. Here, we present the state of the art in regard to the theory of this distribution. The distribution is calculated in two steps. First, we calculate the ground-state wave function of 6 He as a αnn three-body system. For this purpose we use Halo effective field theory, which also provides uncertainty estimates for the results. We compare our results at this stage to model calculations done with the computer code face. In a second step we determine the effects of the nn FSI using the nn t-matrix. We compare these FSI results to approximate FSI approaches based on standard FSI enhancement factors. While the final distribution is sensitive to the nn scattering length, it depends only weakly on the effective range. Throughout we emphasize the impact of theoretical uncertainties on the neutron-neutron relative-energy distribution, and discuss the extent to which those uncertainties limit the extraction of the neutron-neutron scattering length from the reaction 6 He(p,pα)nn.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification of optical models in fission fragment deexcitation

Here, we take the first step towards incorporating compound nuclear observables at astrophysically relevant energies into the experimental evidence used to constrain optical models, by propagating the uncertainty in two global optical potentials, one phenomenological and one microscopic, to correlated fission observables using the Monte Carlo Hauser-Feshbach formalism. We compare to a wide range of historic and recent experimental fission measurements, and discuss in detail regions of disagreement. We find that the parametric optical model uncertainty in neutron-fragment correlated observables involving neutron energy is significant. On the other hand, we observe that other experimental features, particularly neutron-fragment correlations near the 132 Sn shell closure and the high energy component of neutron spectra, are unlikely to be explained by the optical potential, and will require further experimental and theoretical effort to explain.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of ω meson production in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

The p T -differential cross section of ω meson production in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ =13 TeV at midrapidity (|y| < 0.5) was measured with the ALICE detector at the LHC, covering an unprecedented transverse-momentum range of 1.6 < p T < 50 GeV/c. The meson is reconstructed via the ω → π + π − π 0 decay channel. The results are compared with various theoretical calculations: PYTHIA8.2 with the Monash 2013 tune overestimates the data by up to 50%, whereas good agreement is observed with Next-to-Leading Order (NLO) calculations incorporating ω fragmentation using a broken SU(3) model. The ω/π 0 ratio is presented and compared with theoretical calculations and the available measurements at lower collision energies. The presented data triples the p T ranges of previously available measurements. A constant ratio of C ω/π0 = 0.578 ± 0.006 (stat.) ± 0.013 (syst.) is found above a transverse momentum of 4 GeV/c, which is in agreement with previous findings at lower collision energies within the systematic and statistical uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Renewable electricity capacity planning with uncertainty at multiple scales

Abstract We formulate and compare optimization models of investment in renewable generation using a suite of social planning models that compute optimal generation capacity investments for a hydro-dominated electricity system where inflow uncertainty results in a risk of energy shortage. The models optimize the expected cost of capacity expansion and operation allowing for investments in hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, and thermal plant, as well as battery storage for smoothing load profiles. A novel feature is the integration of uncertain seasonal hydroelectric energy supply and short-term variability in renewable supply in a two-stage stochastic programming framework. The models are applied to data from the New Zealand electricity system and used to estimate the costs of moving to a 100% renewable electricity system by 2035. We also explore the outcomes obtained when applying different forms of CO 2 constraint that limit respectively non-renewable capacity, non-renewable generation, and CO 2 emissions on average, almost surely, or in a chance-constrained setting, and show how our models can be used to investigate the merits of a proposed pumped-hydro scheme in New Zealand’s South Island.

Ferris, Michael C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Unraveling spectral shapes of adventitious carbon on gold using a time-resolved high-resolution X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and principal component analysis

To extract chemical information reliably, we propose a new data processing method based both on the creation of information vectors and on a vector base change. The originality of this method is the combination of the different core XPS peaks, Auger and/or valence bands in a single vector. We show that the measurement of a sample upon its progressive chemical change, such as accumulation of the adventitious carbon, allows us to create a new vector basis using linear algebra and Principal Component Analysis. In this work, we demonstrate the application of this method using adventitious carbon films on Au foil utilizing Au 4f, C 1s and O 1s spectral envelopes. This method expands the possibilities of XPS measured chemical environment analysis and is an operator-unbiased solution for materials for which the reference XPS spectra are not available. In this demonstration, the emphasis is placed on identifying changes in a C 1s peak assumed to be adventitious carbon and highlight uncertainties associated with calibrating the binding energy scale using a simple peak model to identify a component C 1s assumed to be saturated hydrocarbon in origin.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Systematic exploration of the thermochemistry for a set of peroxy hydroperoxy-alkyl radicals

Here, the thermochemistry of peroxy hydroperoxy-alkyl ($\overline{O}$OQOOH) radicals has a significant influence on the reactivity of fuels and on the formation of highly oxygenated molecules (HOMs) in the atmosphere. Theoretical characterization of these radicals can be arduous due to their molecular size and complex fundamental interactions, such as hydrogen-bonding and torsional anharmonicity, and difficult to validate in the absence of any direct experimental thermochemical data. In this work, we systematically explore the thermochemistry of a set of $\overline{O}$OQOOH radicals with five increasingly affordable approaches with considerations for these interactions. In doing so, we present a novel conformer selection approach suited to predict properties at combustion temperatures. As a corollary, we also highlight the shortcomings in the standard choice of the ground conformer as the reference. The set of molecules is comprised of 149 C 2 -C 8 $\overline{O}$OQOOH radicals, selected to encompass a wide variety of branching and substitution patterns. Comparisons amongst the approaches help quantify the errors arising from various simplifying assumptions. For the largest of these radicals, and with the most affordable approach, final predictions of Gibbs energies are assigned a 2 σ uncertainty of 4 kcal mol -1 in the negative temperature coefficient region.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Traceable and Scalable Food Balance Sheets from Agricultural Commodity Supply and Utilization Accounts (2010–2022)

Abstract The Food Balance Sheets (FBS), compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), serve as a cornerstone dataset for studies on agricultural development, food security, and dietary health, providing a broad overview of global and regional food systems. However, its limited transparency and scalability hinder its application in empirical analysis and multisector dynamic modeling. Here, we present a traceable Food Balance Sheets (T-FBS) dataset, developed from detailed Supply Utilization Accounts (SUA) using a novel Primary Commodity equivalent (PCe) aggregation approach. This framework enables the aggregation of commodity flows along supply chains while ensuring consistency and balance across multiple dimensions. The T-FBS dataset includes 57 PCe commodities across 195 regions for the period 2010–2022, consolidated from over 500 SUA products. While T-FBS closely aligns with FAO-FBS at aggregate levels for dietary energy and macronutrients, it identifies key uncertainties in other elements (e.g., feed, trade, stocks). By enhancing methodological transparency, traceability, and scalability, T-FBS strengthens the robustness of food system studies and fosters future research and collaboration within the open-source community.

agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probing Systematic Bias in Low-redshift Type Ia Supernova Measurements by Cross Analyzing Surface Brightness and Hubble Residuals

For low-redshift (z < 0.1) SN Ia samples used in several cosmological analyses over the past decade, we probe for systematic bias by looking for correlations between surface brightness (SB) measurements and Hubble residuals (HR). For 292 SNe Ia, we measure SB at the location of the SN Ia from publicly available Pan-STARRS (PS1) images. The Hubble residuals are from two recent measurements with low-z SNe Ia that overlap the PS1 footprint: (1) the DES 3 yr cosmology analysis, with 120 overlapping low-z SNe Ia from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics surveys and Carnegie Supernova Project, and (2) the PS1 single-telescope analysis, with 172 overlapping low-z SNe Ia from the Foundation Supernova Survey. This study is motivated by previous reports of anomalous inefficiencies and flux scatter for transients on bright galaxies. Here, we compare HR distributions of the bright and faint halves of the SB distribution: the mean HR values differ by ${\rm{\Delta }}\overline{\mathrm{HR}}$ = 0.031 ± 0.018, consistent with no difference at the 2σ level. We also perform a Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test for the bright and faint half HR distributions, and conclude that the two distributions are statistically consistent with a KS p-value of 0.07. However, if future studies with larger data sets find ${\rm{\Delta }}\overline{\mathrm{HR}}\sim 0.03$ with high significance, this difference would be a leading systematic uncertainty in measurements of the dark energy equation of state, w.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Exploring experimental conditions to reduce uncertainties in the optical potential

Uncertainty quantification for nuclear theories has gained a more prominent role in the field, with more groups attempting to understand the uncertainties in their calculations. However, recent studies have shown that the uncertainties on the optical potentials are too large for the theory to be useful. The goal of this work is to explore possible experimental conditions that may reduce the uncertainties on elastic scattering and single-nucleon transfer cross sections that come from the fitting of the optical model parameters to experimental data. Using Bayesian methods, we explore the effect of the uncertainties of optical model parameters on the angular grid of the differential cross section, including cross-section data at nearby energies, and changes in the experimental error bars. We also study the effect on the resulting uncertainty when other observables are included in the fitting procedure, particularly the total (reaction) cross sections. We study proton and neutron elastic scattering on 48 Ca and 208 Pb. We explore the parameter space with the Markov-chain Monte Carlo method, produce posterior distributions for the optical model parameters, and construct the corresponding 95% confidence intervals on the elastic-scattering cross sections. We also propagate the uncertainties on the optical potentials to the 48 Ca(d,p) 49 Ca(g.s.) and 208 Pb(d,p) 209 Pb(g.s.) cross sections. We find little sensitivity to the angular grid and an improvement of up to a factor of 2 on the uncertainties by including data at a nearby energy. Although reducing the error bars on the data does reduce the uncertainty, the gain is often considerably smaller than one would naively expect. We also find that the inclusion of total reaction cross section can improve the uncertainty although the magnitude of the effect depends strongly on the cases considered.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Eigenstate thermalization in ( 2 + 1 )-dimensional SU(2) lattice gauge theory

We present preliminary numerical evidence for the hypothesis that the Hamiltonian SU(2) gauge theory discretized on a lattice obeys the eigenstate thermalization hypothesis (ETH). To do so we study three approximations: (a) a linear plaquette chain in a reduced Hilbert space limiting the electric field basis to j = 0 , 1 2 , (b) a two-dimensional honeycomb lattice with periodic or closed boundary condition and the same Hilbert space constraint, and (c) a chain of only three plaquettes but such a sufficiently large electric field Hilbert space ( j ≤ 7 2 ) that convergence of all energy eigenvalues in the analyzed energy window is observed. While an unconstrained Hilbert space is required to reach the continuum limit of SU(2) gauge theory, numerical resource constraints do not permit us to realize this requirement for all values of the coupling constant and large lattices. In each of the three studied cases we check first for random matrix theory (RMT) behavior in the eigenenergy spectrum and then analyze the diagonal as well as the off-diagonal matrix elements between energy eigenstates for a few operators. Within current uncertainties all results for (a), (b) and (c) agree with ETH predictions. Furthermore, we find the off-diagonal matrix elements of the electric energy operator exhibit RMT behavior in frequency windows that are small enough in (b) and (c). To unambiguously establish ETH behavior and determine for which class of operators it applies, an extension of our investigations is necessary. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Operation and performance of the ATLAS tile calorimeter in LHC Run 2

The ATLAS tile calorimeter (TileCal) is the hadronic sampling calorimeter covering the central region of the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). This paper gives an overview of the calorimeter’s operation and performance during the years 2015–2018 (Run 2). In this period, ATLAS collected proton–proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV and the TileCal was 99.65% efficient for data-taking. The signal reconstruction, the calibration procedures, and the detector operational status are presented. The performance of two ATLAS trigger systems making use of TileCal information, the minimum-bias trigger scintillators and the tile muon trigger, is discussed. Studies of radiation effects allow the degradation of the output signals at the end of the LHC and HL-LHC operations to be estimated. Finally, the TileCal response to isolated muons, hadrons and jets from proton–proton collisions is presented. The energy and time calibration methods performed excellently, resulting in good stability and uniformity of the calorimeter response during Run 2. The setting of the energy scale was performed with an uncertainty of 2%. The results demonstrate that the performance is in accordance with specifications defined in the Technical Design Report.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The photon content of the proton in the CT18 global analysis

Recently, two photon PDF sets based on implementations of the LUX ansatz into the CT18 global analysis were released. In CT18lux, the photon PDF is calculated directly using the LUX master formula for all scales, \mu μ . In an alternative realization, CT18qed, the photon PDF is initialized at the starting scale, \mu_0 μ 0 , using the LUX formulation and evolved to higher scales \mu(>\mu_0) μ ( > μ 0 ) with a combined QED+QCD kernel at \mathcal{O}(\alpha),~\mathcal{O}(\alpha\alpha_s) 𝒪 ( α ) , 𝒪 ( α α s ) and \mathcal{O}(\alpha^2) 𝒪 ( α 2 ) . In the small- x x region, the photon PDF uncertainty is mainly induced by the quark and gluon PDFs, through the perturbative DIS structure functions. In comparison, the large- x x photon uncertainty comes from various low-energy, nonperturbative contributions, including variations of the inelastic structure functions in the resonance and continuum regions, higher-twist and target-mass corrections, and elastic electromagnetic form factors of the proton. We take the production of doubly-charged Higgs pairs, (H^{++}H^{--}) ( H + + H − − ) , as an example of scenarios beyond the Standard Model to illustrate the phenomenological implications of these photon PDFs at the LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗