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DOE OSTI2023

Interannual variability of spring and summer monsoon growing season carbon exchange at a semiarid savanna over nearly two decades

Eddy covariance measurements of land-atmosphere energy, carbon, and water exchange now span multiple decades at some sites, supporting an improved understanding of flux interannual variability (IAV) and its ecophysiological and physical controls. Most eddy covariance IAV studies have focused on temperate forest ecosystems, where carbon fluxes are large and flux records are longest – but also where IAV is much lower than in dryland regions, which have been identified as an essential driver of the trend and variability in the global terrestrial carbon sink. In this study, we leveraged 19 years of continuous micrometeorological measurements at the AmeriFlux US-SRM mesquite savanna site in southern Arizona, USA to quantify the IAV, trends, and drivers of carbon fluxes during the distinct spring and summer growing seasons. We also assessed the ability of modern satellite and land surface models to capture the IAV of seasonal water and carbon fluxes. Annual net ecosystem production (NEP) was small and highly variable (23 +/- 64 gC m –2 yr –1 ). Precipitation and associated measures of water availability determined most of the variability in NEP, largely through their influence on annual and seasonal gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) as opposed to ecosystem respiration (ER). Root-zone soil moisture captured between 73% (spring) and 85% (summer) of GEP variability and between 73% (spring) and 58% (summer) of ER variability. Throughout the study period, soil moisture and greenness increased with associated increases in GEP, ER and NEP. These trends were strongly influenced by very productive and wet summer growing seasons during the last two years, which were characterized by abundant understory grass cover. Typically, less than half of the variability in growing season GEP and evapotranspiration was captured by satellite-based estimates and land surface model simulations with local site forcing and calibration, highlighting the ongoing utility of long-term datasets to support careful model testing and improvement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Unpacking the drivers of diurnal dynamics of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF): Canopy structure, plant physiology, instrument configuration and retrieval methods

Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from spaceborne sensors is a promising tool for global carbon cycle monitoring, but its application is constrained by insufficient understanding of the drivers underlying diurnal SIF dynamics. SIF measurements from ground-based towers can reveal diurnal SIF dynamics across biomes and environmental conditions; however, meaningful interpretation of diurnal variations requires disentangling impacts from canopy structure, plant physiology, instrument configuration and retrieval methods, which often interact with and confound each other. This study aims to unpack these drivers using 1) concurrent ground and airborne canopy-scale and leaf-scale measurements at a corn field, 2) a mechanistic SIF model that explicitly considers the dynamics of photochemistry (via the fraction of open photosystem II reaction centers, qL) and photoprotection (via nonphotochemical quenching, NPQ) as well as their interactive dependence on the sub-canopy light environment, and 3) cross-comparison of SIF instrument configurations and retrieval methods. We found that crop row orientations and sun angles can introduce a distinctive midday dip in SIF in absence of stress, due to a midday drop of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) when crop rows are north-south oriented. Canopy structure caused distinctive responses in both qL and NPQ at different positions within the vertical canopy that collectively influenced fluorescence quantum yield (Φ F ) at the leaf scale. Once integrated at the canopy scale, diurnal dynamics of both APAR and canopy escape probability (ε) are critical for accurately shaping diurnal SIF variations. While leaf-level qL and NPQ exhibited strong diurnal dynamics, their influence was attenuated at the canopy scale due to opposing effects on SIF at different canopy layers. Furthermore, different system configurations (i.e., bi-hemispherical vs. hemispherical-conical) and retrieval methods can bias the SIF magnitude and distort its diurnal shapes, therefore confounding the interpretation of inherent strength and dynamics of SIF emission. Our findings demonstrate the importance of crop row structures, interactive variations in canopy structure and plant physiology, instrument configuration, and retrieval method in shaping the measured dynamics of diurnal SIF. This study highlights the necessity to account for these factors to accurately interpret satellite SIF, and informs future synthesis work with different SIF instrumentation and retrieval methods across sites.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

North‐East Peri‐Tethyan Water Column Deoxygenation and Euxinia at the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum

Abstract The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is associated with climatic change and biological turnover. It shares features with the Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs) of the Mesozoic, such as transient global warming and biogeochemical perturbations. However, the PETM experienced a more muted expansion of marine anoxia compared to the Mesozoic OAEs (especially OAE2), with geographically limited evidence for photic zone euxinia (PZE). We explore the extent and drivers of marine deoxygenation during the PETM using biomarkers for water column euxinia and anoxia as well as an intermediate complexity Earth system model (cGEnIE). These reveal that the water column in the North‐East Peri‐Tethys became anoxic, with euxinic conditions reaching the photic zone (PZE) during the PETM. Our model shows that euxinia developed due to a global increase in the ocean nutrient inventory with concomitant oxygen consumption, similar to findings for OAE2. The particularly strong regional response in the NE Peri‐Tethys appears to arise from a combination of global CO 2 ‐weathering forcing, regionally restricted circulation and upwelling of sulphidic thermocline waters. Unlike OAE2, anoxia and PZE do not become widespread in our PETM simulations, consistent with new and existing geochemical and biological proxy data. This globally muted response could result from reduced biogeochemical feedbacks to climate forcing relative to the mid‐Cretaceous climate. Our observations suggest that similar mechanisms operated in response to disparate Cenozoic (PETM) and Mesozoic (OAEs) transient global warming events, while also highlighting that background conditions are crucial in modulating the sensitivity of Earth's system to them.

Behrooz, L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Degradation and deforestation increase the sensitivity of the Amazon Forest to climate extremes

About 40% of the Brazilian Amazon has been deforested or suffered changes in forest structure through degradation (selective logging, fires, and fragmentation). The impact of forest degradation on the forest’s sensitivity to climate extremes has not been fully explored because of a lack of data and the complex interplay of forest structure and climate drivers. Here, we combined forest structure data from 545 airborne lidar transects (375 ha each) across the Brazilian Amazon with the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2). We explore the forest’s functional response to near-present (1981–2019) climate extremes under observed forest structure from lidar ( Control ) and two forest structure change scenarios: (1) forest recovery by excluding all future deforestation and degradation ( Recovery ) and (2) expansion of selective logging and deforestation ( Degradation ). Using the Control simulation, we found a close and positive association between local forest aboveground biomass and the predicted gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Moreover, both GPP and ET respond negatively to extremes in vapor pressure deficit and downwelling shortwave irradiance in degraded forests in Eastern and Southern Amazon, indicating high sensitivity to droughts. Locally high-biomass forest patches showed little or no negative response of GPP and ET to extreme drought conditions whereas low-biomass forest patches in the same locations—typically degraded forest canopies—responded negatively to higher moisture stress. The results from the Recovery scenario showed similar results to simulations with observed structure; however, under the Degradation scenario, low-biomass forest patches became more abundant, resulting in more regions where GPP and ET are negatively impacted by hot drought conditions according to the ED2 model. Our results suggest that local forest structure is a critical determinant of an ecosystem’s response to climate variability, and that the loss of canopy trees in the Amazon through forest degradation could increase and expand forest vulnerability to droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of Uncertainty Impacts on Emissions and Fuel Economy Evaluation for Chassis Dynamometer Testing

This study illustrates a methodology for quantifying the uncertainties encountered in the measurement of tailpipe emissions and in the fuel consumption measurements for light-duty conventional vehicles tested on a four-wheel drive chassis dynamometer. The study leverages high-fidelity experimental data collected over three standard drive cycles, UDDS, HWY and US06, intended to simulate a wide range of operating conditions. Here, a method is developed to estimate the measurement uncertainties in fuel consumption for a test cycle, which occur due to the accumulation of measurement uncertainties propagated through the system. The uncertainty determination model uses statistical analysis and standard propagation techniques to evaluate and combine the uncertainties introduced from various sources (including the vehicle, chassis dynamometer, driver, and instrumentation). The analysis also examines three different experimental methods for determining the fuel consumption: 1) carbon mass balance, 2) volumetric fuel scale and 3) gravimetric fuel scale, and takes into consideration the properties of the instrumentation used. The results show that the most significant influence on the determination of the emissions comes from the concentration measurement, and similarly the biggest impact on the total fuel consumption uncertainty comes from the uncertainty in the determination of the carbon dioxide mass, due to the large presence of this pollutant in the overall emissions. It was found that the fuel consumption uncertainties are in the range of ±1-2% for all three methods analyzed, with the lowest values being obtained for measurements performed using the gravimetric method for all three drive cycles considered.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding spatial and temporal drivers of variation in tree hydraulic processes and their consequences for climate feedbacks (Final Technical Report)

This is the final technical report from the first phase of a project that changed institutions. The grant was titled “Understanding spatial and temporal drivers of variation in tree hydraulic processes and their consequences for climate feedbacks.” The overall objectives of this project were to (1) provide model‐compatible datasets of key plant hydraulic traits and status for model evaluation, parameterization and validation and (2) use these data to pinpoint ecosystem responses to a changing hydroclimate by addressing both long‐term climatic drying and episodic extreme droughts. We planned to address the objectives with three research activities to quantify plant responses to chronic water stress and episodic drought: (1) generate high frequency observations of soil and plant hydraulic data across different landscape positions at multiple sites, (2) quantify plant hydraulic trait plasticity in response to experimental soil moisture reduction in situ in two central hardwood forests, and (3) simulate the carbon consequences of incorporating plant hydrodynamics and plant acclimation to water stress in the DOE‐sponsored plant hydrodynamics model FATES‐HYDRO. As of the transfer of this project to another institution, we had made substantial progress on activities 1 and 2, and started activity 3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advancements in Multiphysics Microdepletion Analysis of an eVinci TM -like Microreactor Leveraging OpenMC-CRAB Workflow

Nuclear microreactors (MRs) are a class of nuclear reactor technology, characterized by reduced dimensions, modular design, and reduced power output in contrast to conventional Light Water Reactors (LWRs). MRs are proposed for supplying electricity and eventual process heat to remote locations, such as military installations and disaster-affected areas. Current research work sponsored by the US Department of Energy Microreactor Program (MRP) is devoted to the development of novel modeling and simulation tools to better support MR vendors and regulatory bodies. Notably, the NRC is projected to utilize the CRAB multiphysics software driver for executing both design and beyond-design-basis accident analyses. Furthermore, the NRC has been utilizing the MELCOR code to calculate mechanistic source terms during accidents. Since MELCOR relies on isotopic inventory and reactor temperature/power profiles under accident conditions, which theoretically can be derived from CRAB, the goal is to establish a comprehensive CRAB-MELCOR computational framework. Past work was focused on testing and demonstrating CRAB's capability to generate results that can be used to inform mechanistic source term calculations in MELCOR. In particular, a computational workflow leveraging OpenMC-generated microscopic cross sections and CRAB was first applied to perform multiphysics microscopic depletion calculation followed by an accident scenario for a stylized microreactor problem. In fiscal year 2024, the research work has been focused on applying the OpenMC-CRAB workflow, which was first tested in fiscal year 2023, to a realistic 3D heat-pipe cooled MR problem representative of the eVinci TM design. The latter computational problem was developed with inputs from WEC to conserve selected neutronic and thermal characteristics of the eVinci TM design without releasing proprietary data. The results of this simulation, encompassing isotopic inventory, power density distribution, and kinetic parameters, will inform both MELCOR and the WEC-developed FATE code for mechanistic source terms calculations. The results from the two codes will then be compared for code verification purposes. This report contains the design characteristics of the realist heat pipe cooled microreactor developed as a use-case for the verification exercise, and the current results for the multiphysics microscopic depletion performed with the OpenMC-CRAB workflow. The results include eigenvalue as a function of time, power distribution at EOL, in addition to nuclides inventory's time evolution and spatial distribution. Finally, we report improvements to the workflow efficiency achieved through a collaboration with the NEAMS programs. Through this collaborative effort, we were able to strongly decrease the computational time for the multiphysics microdepletion calculation (i.e., from 17.4 hours to 5.7 hours on 280 processors) in addition to simplifying the interface to generate isotopics spatial distribution utilizable by FATE and MELCOR. Future work, including the improvement of the current microscopic cross-sections' library and the simulation of an accident scenario at EOL, is also discussed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the impacts of elevated CO2 and vapor pressure deficit on tree mortality - CRADA 599 (Abstract)

Many studies have examined the effects of rising CO2 on gas exchange and growth of plants. However, concurrent with the rise in CO2 has been the rise in temperature and associated drying of the atmosphere, or vapor pressure deficit (VPD), which increases tree mortality. Little attention has been given to the net outcome of these antagonistic drivers of plant performance. The net balance of rising CO2 and VPD upon plant and ecosystem function is possibly the largest uncertainty in model projections of the terrestrial carbon and water cycles. The purpose of this CRADA is to improve our predictive understanding of tree mortality under our changing environment. We will collaborate with WSU to provide a mechanistic understanding of the relative impacts of CO2 and VPD on tree mortality that scales across the globe. Ultimately, we will understand the potential impacts and mechanisms underlying CO2 and VPD responses and will enable improved prediction of future tree mortality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lower soil moisture and deep soil temperatures in thermokarst features increase old soil carbon loss after 10 years of experimental permafrost warming

Almost half of the global terrestrial soil carbon (C) is stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost region, where air temperatures are increasing two times faster than the global average. As climate warms, permafrost thaws and soil organic matter becomes vulnerable to greater microbial decomposition. Long-term soil warming of ice-rich permafrost can result in thermokarst formation that creates variability in environmental conditions. Consequently, plant and microbial proportional contributions to ecosystem respiration may change in response to long-term soil warming. Natural abundance δ 13 C and Δ 14 C of aboveground and belowground plant material, and of young and old soil respiration were used to inform a mixing model to partition the contribution of each source to ecosystem respiration fluxes. We employed a hierarchical Bayesian approach that incorporated gross primary productivity and environmental drivers to constrain source contributions. We found that long-term experimental permafrost warming introduced a soil hydrology component that interacted with temperature to affect old soil C respiration. Old soil C loss was suppressed in plots with warmer deep soil temperatures because they tended to be wetter. When soil volumetric water content significantly decreased in 2018 relative to 2016 and 2017, the dominant respiration sources shifted from plant aboveground and young soil respiration to old soil respiration. The proportion of ecosystem respiration from old soil C accounted for up to 39% of ecosystem respiration and represented a 30-fold increase compared to the wet-year average. Our findings show that thermokarst formation may act to moderate microbial decomposition of old soil C when soil is highly saturated. However, when soil moisture decreases, a higher proportion of old soil C is vulnerable to decomposition and can become a large flux to the atmosphere. Furthermore, as permafrost systems continue to change with climate, we must understand the thresholds that may propel these systems from a C sink to a source.

permafrost↗

DOE OSTI2020

Historical total ozone radiative forcing derived from CMIP6 simulations

Radiative forcing (RF) time series for total ozone from 1850 up to the present day are calculated based on historical simulations of ozone from 10 climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, RF is calculated for ozone fields prepared as an input for CMIP6 models without chemistry schemes and from a chemical transport model simulation. A radiative kernel for ozone is constructed and used to derive the RF. The ozone RF in 2010 (2005–2014) relative to 1850 is 0.35 W m -2 [0.08–0.61] (5–95% uncertainty range) based on models with both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. One of these models has a negative present-day total ozone RF. Excluding this model, the present-day ozone RF increases to 0.39 W m -2 [0.27–0.51] (5–95% uncertainty range). The rest of the models have RF close to or stronger than the RF time series assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the fifth assessment report with the primary driver likely being the new precursor emissions used in CMIP6. The rapid adjustments beyond stratospheric temperature are estimated to be weak and thus the RF is a good measure of effective radiative forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Active rotor coning for a 25 MW downwind offshore wind turbine

A two-bladed downwind turbine system was upscaled from 13.2 MW to 25 MW by redesigning aerodynamics, structures, and controls. In particular, three 25-MW rotors were developed, and the final version is a fully redesigned model of the original rotor. Despite their radically large sizes, it was found that these 25-MW turbine rotors satisfy this limited set of structural design drivers at the rated condition and that larger blade lengths are possible with conewise load-alignment. In addition, flapwise morphing (varying the cone angle with a wind-speed schedule) was investigated to minimize mean and fluctuating blade root bending loads using steady inflow proxies for the maximum and lifetime damage equivalent load moments. Compared to the fixed coned rotor case, morphing can provide an Annual Energy Production (AEP) increase of 6%, and the maximum blade root flapwise bending moment increases 21% (still under the constraint, i.e., 10% of the ultimate moments) as a trade-off. The resulting series of 25-MW rotors can be a valuable baseline for further development and assessment of ultra-large-scale wind turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

CLM5 Simulations of Soil Moisture and Grain Carbon for CONUS at 0.125 degrees

This dataset provides 0.125° gridded simulations of soil moisture and crop grain carbon for the Contiguous United States (CONUS), generated using the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) with the biogeochemistry module enabled. The data covers a historical baseline (1980–2015) and mid-century future projections (2020–2055). Future projections are organized into two sets of scenarios to distinguish the impacts of different drivers: (1) Atmospheric Only (ATM-only): These scenarios apply future atmospheric forcings while holding land use and land cover change (LULCC) at historical baseline levels. The atmospheric forcings represent moderately versus severely hotter/drier atmospheric conditions (dynamically downscaled perturbed thermodynamics simulations based on CMIP6 SSP245 and SSP585 warming signals), each with cooler versus hotter Earth System Model temperature sensitivity instantiations. These scenarios are identified in the file names as atm45cooler, atm45hotter, atm85cooler, and atm85hotter. (2) Coupled Atmospheric and Land-Use (LAND+ATM): These scenarios apply future atmospheric forcing together with future LULCC by pairing atmospheric pathways with lower versus higher population/economic growth scenarios representing Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5 (SSP3 and SSP5). These scenarios are identified in the file names as atm45cooler_ssp3, atm45hotter_ssp3, atm45cooler_ssp5, atm45hotter_ssp5, atm85cooler_ssp3, atm85hotter_ssp3, atm85cooler_ssp5, and atm85hotter_ssp5. Please refer to the README file for detailed information on file structure, variables, units, and data formats.

Yao, Lili [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory] ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Science Plan for the Deployment of the Third ARM Mobile Facility to the Southeastern United States at the Bankhead National Forest, Alabama (AMF3 BNF)

In 2018, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) held a workshop for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) (Mather and Voyles 2013) user facility to discuss critical climate challenges and locations where key ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) observational assets could impact Earth system modeling (ESM). As an outcome, the southeast United States (SE U.S.) was identified as a high-priority region to target climate-process studies that promote a deeper understanding of the climate system and bolster ARM interactions with the community to drive ESM advancement. The DOE ARM user facility is a globally recognized leader in deploying and operating strategically located observation sites around the world for studying the properties of aerosols and clouds and their interaction with radiation, precipitation, and the Earth’s surface. In partnering with the DOE Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program, ARM solicited a multi-agency Site Science Team approach to provide input and close interaction with ARM management towards a successful SE U.S. deployment of the ARM third Mobile Facility (AMF3) (Miller et al. 2016). These efforts included identifying key locations, science drivers and instruments, and measurement strategies to address the wider climate-process needs and ESM improvement. Community input served a vital role in establishing, refining, and informing the relevant drivers and decisions regarding this AMF3 deployment. The team has identified Northern Alabama (N. AL) as regionally representative to unlock the key opportunities that will improve our understanding and model representation of aerosol, cloud, and land surface processes and their couplings in the SE U.S. A defining aspect of the AMF3 deployment is its commitment to long-term (anticipated five-year) observations to mitigate potential seasonal-to-annual variability that often limits appropriate attribution of phenomena to local or larger-scale processes. The proposed location may leverage nearby surface networks and multi-agency and partner assets to enrich this multi-year deployment. One motivation is to understand the role of spatiotemporal variability (thermodynamic, land-surface) across aspects of the climate system, with our AMF3 team anticipating future demands on characterizing the relationships between local-to-regional cloud development and surface processes across a diverse patchwork of natural, managed, and urban landscapes as found throughout the N. AL regions. The main site targets an intact, representative, forested region – the Bankhead National Forest (BNF) – underscoring further team commitment to regionally important land atmosphere two-way interactive studies “from the canopy to the clouds”, with enhanced tower instrumentation augmenting traditional ARM capabilities adjacent to this site. Multiple supplemental sites will also be distributed across this region, prioritizing added needs for biodiversity. Anticipated high-priority cloud science themes will target N. AL as a regional SE U.S. hotbed for high-impact weather, convective cloud onset, and shallow to-deep cloud transitioning. Anticipated aerosol drivers will focus on chemical processes that control the evolution of organic aerosol, the seasonality and spatial distribution of water vapor and particle-phase water, and its role on aerosol optical properties. Anticipated land atmosphere drivers consider the two-way feedbacks between surface influence on aerosols, clouds, and precipitation properties and the associated radiative impacts on plant physiology and canopy-scale fluxes. Emphasis will include the study of the impact of surface processes on aerosols via precursor emission, and on clouds via moisture flux and thermal development.

Doppler lidar, aerosols, convection↗

DOE OSTI2023

Science Plan for the Deployment of the Third ARM Mobile Facility to the Southeastern United States at the Bankhead National Forest, Alabama (AMF3 BNF)

In 2018, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) held a workshop for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) (Mather and Voyles 2013) user facility to discuss critical climate challenges and locations where key ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) observational assets could impact Earth system modeling (ESM). As an outcome, the southeast United States (SE U.S.) was identified as a high-priority region to target climate-process studies that promote a deeper understanding of the climate system and bolster ARM interactions with the community to drive ESM advancement. The DOE ARM user facility is a globally recognized leader in deploying and operating strategically located observation sites around the world for studying the properties of aerosols and clouds and their interaction with radiation, precipitation, and the Earth’s surface. In partnering with the DOE Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program, ARM solicited a multi-agency Site Science Team approach to provide input and close interaction with ARM management towards a successful SE U.S. deployment of the ARM third Mobile Facility (AMF3) (Miller et al. 2016). These efforts included identifying key locations, science drivers and instruments, and measurement strategies to address the wider climate-process needs and ESM improvement. Community input served a vital role in establishing, refining, and informing the relevant drivers and decisions regarding this AMF3 deployment. The team has identified Northern Alabama (N. AL) as regionally representative to unlock the key opportunities that will improve our understanding and model representation of aerosol, cloud, and land-surface processes and their couplings in the SE U.S. A defining aspect of the AMF3 deployment is its commitment to long-term (anticipated five-year) observations to mitigate potential seasonal-to-annual variability that often limits appropriate attribution of phenomena to local or larger-scale processes. The proposed location may leverage nearby surface networks and multi-agency and partner assets to enrich this multi-year deployment. One motivation is to understand the role of spatiotemporal variability (thermodynamic, land-surface) across aspects of the climate system, with our AMF3 team anticipating future demands on characterizing the relationships between local-to-regional cloud development and surface processes across a diverse patchwork of natural, managed, and urban landscapes as found throughout the N. AL regions. The main site targets an intact, representative, forested region – the Bankhead National Forest (BNF) – underscoring further team commitment to regionally important land-atmosphere two-way interactive studies “from the canopy to the clouds”, with enhanced tower instrumentation augmenting traditional ARM capabilities adjacent to this site. Multiple supplemental sites will also be distributed across this region, prioritizing added needs for biodiversity. Anticipated high-priority cloud science themes will target N. AL as a regional SE U.S. hotbed for high-impact weather, convective cloud onset, and shallow-to-deep cloud transitioning. Anticipated aerosol drivers will focus on chemical processes that control the evolution of organic aerosol, the seasonality and spatial distribution of water vapor and particle-phase water, and its role on aerosol optical properties. Anticipated land-atmosphere drivers consider the two-way feedbacks between surface influence on aerosols, clouds, and precipitation properties and the associated radiative impacts on plant physiology and canopy-scale fluxes. Emphasis will include the study of the impact of surface processes on aerosols via precursor emission, and on clouds via moisture flux and thermal development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast - Part 1: Analysis of Aerosols, Gases, and Wet Deposition Chemistry

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) and adjoining East Coast of North America are of great importance for atmospheric research and have been extensively studied for several decades. This broad region exhibits complex meteorological features, diverse cloud types, and a wide range of conditions associated with gas and particulate species that originate from many sources regionally and from other continents. As Part 1 of a 2-part paper series, this work provides a characterization of quantities associated with atmospheric chemistry, including gases, aerosols, and wet deposition, based on satellite observations, ground-based data, model simulations, and reanalysis products. Key results include spatial and seasonal differences in composition along the North American East Coast and over the WNAO associated with varying sources of smoke and dust and meteorological drivers such as temperature, moisture, and precipitation. Spatial and seasonal variations of tropospheric carbon monoxide and ozone highlight different pathways towards accumulation of these species in the troposphere. Spatial distributions of speciated aerosol optical depth and vertical profiles of aerosol mass mixing ratios show a clear seasonal cycle highlighting the influence of both natural and anthropogenic sources in addition to the impact of intercontinental transport on their vertical profiles. Analysis of long-term climate model simulations of aerosol species and satellite observations of carbon monoxide confirm that there has been a significant decline in recent decades among anthropogenic constituents owing to regulatory activities. The results can inform current and future lines of research for the region.

Corral, Andrea↗

DOE OSTI2021

Represent precipitation-induced geological hazards in Earth system models using artificial intelligence

Precipitation-induced geological hazards, such as debris flow, landslides, mudflow and rockfalls (hereafter referred to as landslides), pose serious threats to public safety in many areas through the world. As residential properties and infrastructure in the US have increasingly expanded into landslide-prone areas and the drivers of landslides (e.g., wildfires and hurricanes) are predicted to intensify under climate warming, losses and fatalities from landslides are likely to increase in the future. Although our understanding of geoenvironmental factors and mechanisms contributing to landslides has greatly improved, only moderate progress has been made in predicting landslides out of well-studied watersheds. Furthermore, explicitly representing various landslide-related processes in Earth system models (ESMs), from the buckling of local bearing elements in granular materials, to frictional sliding between grains, formation of microcracks in the soil matrix, rupture of capillary bridges, or breakage of plant roots3 is still very unlikely within the next decade, even with the help of exascale computers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Latent Dirichlet Allocation model applied to airborne LiDAR data: A case study on mapping forest degradation associated with fragmentation and fire in the Amazon region

1. LiDAR data are being increasingly used to provide a detailed characterization of the vertical profile of forests. This characterization enables the generation of new insights on the influence of environmental drivers and anthropogenic disturbances on forest structure as well as on how forest structure influences important ecosystem functions and services. Unfortunately, extracting information from LiDAR data in a way that enables the spatial visualization of forest structure, as well as its temporal changes, is challenging due to the high dimensionality of these data. 2. In this study, we show how the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model applied to LiDAR data (LidarLDA) can be used to identify forest structural types and how the relative abundance of these forest types changes throughout the landscape. The code to fit this model is made available through the open-source r package LidarLDA in github. We illustrate the use of LidarLDA both with simulated data and data from a large-scale fire experiment in the Brazilian Amazon region. 3. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that LidarLDA accurately identifies the number of forest types as well as their spatial distribution and absorptance probabilities. For the empirical data, we found that LidarLDA detects both landscape-level patterns in forest structure as well as the strong interacting effect of fire and forest fragmentation on forest structure based on the experimental fire plots. More specifically, LidarLDA reveals that proximity to forest edge exacerbates the impact of fires, and that burned forests remain structurally different from unburned areas for at least 7 years, even when burned only once. Importantly, LidarLDA generates insights on the 3D structure of forest that cannot be obtained using more standard approaches that just focus on top-of-the-canopy information (e.g. canopy height models based on LiDAR data). 4. By enabling the mapping of forest structure and its temporal changes, we believe that LidarLDA will be of broad utility to the ecological research community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analyzing the co-evolution of green technology diffusion and consumers’ pro-environmental attitudes: An agent-based model

Massive diffusion of green technologies is significant for building a cleaner world. However, the process of technology diffusion is usually slow and complex. An in-depth understanding of the mechanism regarding green technology diffusion is an essential precondition for effectively stimulating this process. Green technology diffusion heavily involves both social and technological changes. Although existing studies have provided rich knowledge about identifying critical drivers and barriers affecting green technology diffusion, research that considers consumers’ pro-environmental attitudes and green technology diffusion as an evolving system is still sparse. Aiming at exploring the co-evolution of consumers’ pro-environmental attitudes and green technology diffusion, this paper builds an agent-based model that integrates the relative agreement model with technology diffusion theories to conduct a sequence of controlled numerical experiments, which progressively unveil how attitudinal and technological factors impact green technology diffusion. The main findings include that (1) improving consumers’ pro-environmental attitudes is prominently beneficial to green technology diffusion and maturation; (2) technology maturity has very limited impact on consumers’ first-time purchases but significantly affects consumers’ satisfaction, which would further impact consumers’ repeat purchases; (3) consumers that do not support green technologies frequently emerge during the evolution of attitudes (despite the high technology maturity), which corresponds to the emergence of the anti-environmental groups observed in the real world; (4) active interactions between non-adopters enable their attitudes to converge, which results in the polarization of consumers’ attitudes.

ABM↗