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At least 541 records · Page 30

The Distribution of Methane in Titan's Stratosphere from Cassini/CIRS Observations

Cassini/CIRS spectra in the far- and mid-infrared region are used to determine the abundance of methanein Titans lower stratosphere and investigate its distribution with latitude. The CIRS spectra include emissionfrom both the CH4 v4 band at 7.7 micron and pure rotational lines longwards of 50 micron, which show differential sensitivities to thermal profile and methane mole fraction. We analyze nadir and limb data taken over the first part of the Cassini mission (August 2005 to June 2010), including a selection of 12 latitudes that provides a reasonably complete and regular sampling of both hemispheres. Unexpectedly, but in a consistent manner for limb and nadir geometries, large variations of the methane mole fraction near 15 mbar (approx. 85 km) are found, with values ranging from approx. 1.0% (at low latitudes and near +/-50-55 deg) to approx. 1.5% (at +/-30-35 deg and polar latitudes). Error bars on the retrieved methane mole fraction are 0.07-0.12% at low latitudes in the Southern hemisphere and 0.14-0.21% northward of 40 deg N. A 1.0% methanemole fraction at low latitudes permits us to reconcile the HASI-measured temperatures below 147 kmaltitude (2.7 mbar) with inferences from CIRS. The roughly hemispherically-symmetric distribution ofmethane gas is reminiscent of that observed or predicted for the tropospheric methane clouds, whichon a yearly-averaged basis, show preferential occurrences at tropical and polar latitudes. We speculatethat convective events at these latitudes result into local stratospheric methane enrichment, whichmay persist year-round due to dynamical mixing times in the lower stratosphere only moderately shorterthan a Titan year.

Methane↗

From Images to Dark Matter: End-to-end Inference of Substructure from Hundreds of Strong Gravitational Lenses

Abstract Constraining the distribution of small-scale structure in our universe allows us to probe alternatives to the cold dark matter paradigm. Strong gravitational lensing offers a unique window into small dark matter halos (<10 10 M ⊙ ) because these halos impart a gravitational lensing signal even if they do not host luminous galaxies. We create large data sets of strong lensing images with realistic low-mass halos, Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observational effects, and galaxy light from HST’s COSMOS field. Using a simulation-based inference pipeline, we train a neural posterior estimator of the subhalo mass function (SHMF) and place constraints on populations of lenses generated using a separate set of galaxy sources. We find that by combining our network with a hierarchical inference framework, we can both reliably infer the SHMF across a variety of configurations and scale efficiently to populations with hundreds of lenses. By conducting precise inference on large and complex simulated data sets, our method lays a foundation for extracting dark matter constraints from the next generation of wide-field optical imaging surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of super-Gaussian electron distributions on plasma K-shell emission

Electron distributions in laser-produced plasmas will be driven toward a super-Gaussian distribution due to inverse bremsstrahlung absorption [Langdon, Phys. Rev. Lett. 44, 575 (1980)]. Both theoretical and experimental evidence suggest that fundamental plasma properties are altered by the super-Gaussian distribution. Here, this paper examines how the super-Gaussian distribution affects the ionization balance and K-shell emission of atomic plasmas, utilizing approximate formulas and detailed collisional-radiative simulations. While the impact on plasma ionization is small, K-shell spectra can be significantly modified. Based on these findings, we demonstrate that K-shell spectroscopy can be used to infer super-Gaussian or other similar nonequilibrium electron distributions.

Atomic spectra↗

The global distribution of observed cloudiness - A contribution to the ISCCP

Satellite-inferred overall global cloud patterns generally corroborate those derived from ground-based observations. Both show significant differences of cloudiness between the two hemispheres and over extended land as compared with ocean areas. However, the averaged latitudinal values of surface-based observed cloud amounts are about 10 percent higher than those derived from Nimbus-7 observations. The largest difference (10-20 percent) is in the subtropics of each hemisphere and at subpolar and polar latitudes during the summer. The difference in reported average global total cloud amounts is about 10 percent.

London, Julius↗

Vertical O(sub 3) distribution as a diagnostic for eddy diffusion profile

A model study of the distribution of ozone on Mars is presented. It is showed that knowledge of the vertical ozone distribution, such as could be obtained from ultraviolet measurements from an orbiter, could be used to infer vertical transport rates at various levels in the atmosphere. The dependence of the vertical distribution of O(sub 3) on the height variation of eddy diffusion coefficient is illustrated. Ozone abundance is a valuable diagnostic for other climatological parameters. In addition, the sensitivity of O(sub 3) distribution to eddy diffusion may aid in determining the role of surface oxidation and recombination processes and lead to a better understanding of the volatiles released or adsorbed cyclically in the Martian regolith.

Tyler, A. L.↗

A study of the atmosphere and ionosphere using satellite observations of 300-1400 Ang airglow

A study of the O(+) ion distribution reveals that the OII 834 A emission can be used to infer the O(+) density as a function of altitude. The ion temperature was obtained from these measurements. Variations of the ion density distributions were obtained as a function of latitude. Daytime observations show that the OII 834 A emissions contain the signature of the Appleton anomary. Analysis of the 300 to 900 A auroral spectra reveals a large number of OII features. Several pairs of OII features with a common upper state were used to obtain their branching ratios and compared with laboratory observations and theoretical calculations. Evidence for OIII emissions were also found in an aurora.

Chakrabarti, S.↗

Privacy-Preserving Robust Consensus for Distributed Microgrid Control Applications

Consensus-based distributed control has been proposed for coordinating distributed energy resources (DERs) in microgrids (MGs). As one key component, distributed average observers are used to estimate the average of a group of reference signals (e.g., voltage, current, or power). State-of-the-art distributed average observers could lead to loss of privacy due to information exchange on the communication channels. The DERs' reference signals, which contain private information, could be inferred by an eavesdropper. In this article, a privacy-preserving distributed average observer is proposed that is based on robust consensus and uses the state decomposition method to preserve privacy. Compared to the existing methods, the proposed observer does not require the knowledge of the reference signal's derivative and gives accurate and smooth estimation, and is thus applicable for MG distributed control applications. A detailed analysis regarding the convergence and privacy properties of the proposed observer is presented. Here, the proposed observer is implemented on hardware controllers and validated in the context of distributed MG control applications through hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) tests.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

MATE: The multi-agent test environment

In this report we present the Multi-Agent Test Environment, MATE. MATE is a collection of experiment management tools for assisting in the design, testing, and evaluation of distributed problem-solvers. It provides the experimenter with an automated tool for executing and monitoring experiments choosing among rule bases, number of agents, communication strategies, and inference engines. Using MATE the experimenter can run a series of distributed problem-solving experiments without human intervention.

Mason, Cindy L.↗

Software for Statistical Analysis of Weibull Distributions with Application to Gear Fatigue Data: User Manual with Verification

The Weibull distribution has been widely adopted for the statistical description and inference of fatigue data. This document provides user instructions, examples, and verification for software to analyze gear fatigue test data. The software was developed presuming the data are adequately modeled using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. The calculations are based on likelihood methods, and the approach taken is valid for data that include type 1 censoring. The software was verified by reproducing results published by others.

Krantz, Timothy L.↗

Software for Statistical Analysis of Weibull Distributions with Application to Gear Fatigue Data: User Manual with Verification

The Weibull distribution has been widely adopted for the statistical description and inference of fatigue data. This document provides user instructions, examples, and verification for software to analyze gear fatigue test data. The software was developed presuming the data are adequately modeled using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. The calculations are based on likelihood methods, and the approach taken is valid for data that include type I censoring. The software was verified by reproducing results published by others.

Kranz, Timothy L.↗

An Adaptive-Importance-Sampling-Enhanced Bayesian Approach for Topology Estimation in an Unbalanced Power Distribution System

The reliable operation of a power distribution system relies on a good prior knowledge of its topology and its system state. Although crucial, due to the lack of direct monitoring devices on the switch statuses, the topology information is often unavailable or outdated for the distribution system operators for real-time applications. Apart from the limited observability of the power distribution system, other challenges are the nonlinearity of the model, the complicated, unbalanced structure of the distribution system, and the scale of the system. To overcome the above challenges, we, in this paper, propose a Bayesian-inference framework that allows us to simultaneously estimate the topology and the state of a three-phase, unbalanced power distribution system. Specifically, by using the very limited number of measurements available that are associated with the forecast load data, we efficiently recover the full Bayesian posterior distributions of the system topology under both normal and outage operation conditions. This is performed through an adaptive importance sampling procedure that greatly alleviates the computational burden of the traditional Monte-Carlo (MC)-sampling-based approach while maintaining a good estimation accuracy. The simulations conducted on the IEEE 123-bus test system and an unbalanced 1282-bus system reveal the excellent performances of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Quantum-Assisted Variational Segmentation for Image-to-Image Wildfire Detection Using Satellite Data

The quantum computing community has been searching for suitable applications to demonstrate the potential of near-term quantum devices. Quantum machine learning is a potential candidate, particularly using models that cannot be efficiently simulated with classical computers [1, 2]. This work focuses on a transition phase of quantum computers where the quantum machine learning model is still simulable classically but projected not to be simulable as the size of the model grows. Ultimately quantum computers may have advantages for high-dimensional real-world problems. Due to the limited number of qubits in current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices, the direct application of quantum computers in high dimensional data is not feasible. To remedy this problem, an encoder-decoder architecture can be utilized. The encoder model would transform the high-dimensional data into a compact representation, to a level that small quantum computers can be used today (or in the near future), and the decoder would take the quantum processed outputs back to the high-dimensional space. Addressing the two challenges of quantum machine learning, this work investigates a hybrid supervised generative model with a quantum Ising Born machine embedded as the latent distribution. The model contains four main parts (Figure 1.a.): (1) a U-NET architecture responsible for learning segmentation flow, (2) a Prior network responsible for learning an encoded latent distribution of the input data, (3) a Born machine which represents the latent distribution, and (4) a Posterior network in charge of learning the joint encoded latent distribution of inputs and target data. The initial model, proposed by [3], is optimized by (1) maximizing the overlap of the prior and posterior latent distributions, and (2) minimizing the segmentation loss. The proposed model is designed to be investigated in a simulation environment applied to the real-world application of wildfire segmentation. Specifically, the model is designed to solve the patchy wildfire segmentations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) by taking the MODIS observations and using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite’s (VIIRS) consistent wildfire product as the target. The model solves patchy wildfire segmentations and provides insight into the epistemic errors sourced from model variation. The model utilizes the Born machine as a QUBO solver to represent the latent space as a Bernoulli distribution. The proposed configuration allows the variational segmentation model to leverage the true quantum probabilistic nature and derive a more expressive latent configuration, increasing the model performance in describing wildfire segmentations. The quantum probabilistic information of the Born machine is directly incorporated in the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss in the prior and posterior distributions, forcing the Bernoulli latent distribution to maximize the overlap of input and joint input-target distributions. The proposed model is then trained and compared with a baseline only consisting of direct Bernoulli latent distribution with no Born machine representing the latent space. The models are evaluated based on the segmentation metrics, such as precision, recall, intersect of union, with uncertainty boundaries accounting for the stochastic nature of the model. Our findings show that even in low latent-dimensional space (due to the limit in computational power of the classical quantum simulator), we are able to effectively capture the latent representation and hence the model performs better than the baseline. The findings are a projection for scaling the model into higher dimensional latent space with the Born machine surpassing the baseline performance. Figure 1. Sub-figure (a) demonstrates the architecture for the training phase. The model consists of a Prior and Posterior network that encode inputs and joint input-target data into compact representations, respectively. The Born machine represents the latent distribution, and the U-NET branch learns the segmentation patterns of the data. The stochasticity is introduced to the U-NET through its last layer to create meaningful but stochastic segmentations. Sub-figure (b) represents the inference phase where the model takes the stochastic behavior from the prior network and injects that into the U-NET. Each attempt of inference will generate different but similar segmentations from the same distribution of the wildfire event. REFERENCES [1] Coyle, B., Mills, D., Danos, V., & Kashefi, E. (2020). The Born supremacy: quantum advantage and training of an Ising Born machine. npj Quantum Information, 6(1), 1-11. [2] Liu, J. G., & Wang, L. (2018). Differentiable learning of quantum circuit born machines. Physical Review A, 98(6), 062324. [3] Kohl, S., Romera-Paredes, B., Meyer, C., De Fauw, J., Ledsam, J. R., Maier-Hein, K., ... & Ronneberger, O. (2018). A probabilistic u-net for segmentation of ambiguous images. Advances in neural information processing systems, 31.

quantum machine learning↗

Lunar Neutral Exposphere Properties from Pickup Ion Analysis

Composition and structure of neutral constituents in the lunar exosphere can be determined through measurements of phase space distributions of pickup ions borne from the exosphere [1]. An essential point made in an early study [ 1 ] and inferred by recent pickup ion measurements [2, 3] is that much lower neutral exosphere densities can be derived from ion mass spectrometer measurements of pickup ions than can be determined by conventional neutral mass spectrometers or remote sensing instruments. One approach for deriving properties of neutral exospheric source gasses is to first compare observed ion spectra with pickup ion model phase space distributions. Neutral exosphere properties are then inferred by adjusting exosphere model parameters to obtain the best fit between the resulting model pickup ion distributions and the observed ion spectra. Adopting this path, we obtain ion distributions from a new general pickup ion model, an extension of a simpler analytic description obtained from the Vlasov equation with an ion source [4]. In turn, the ion source is formed from a three-dimensional exospheric density distribution, which can range from the classical Chamberlain type distribution to one with variable exobase temperatures and nonthermal constituents as well as those empirically derived. The initial stage of this approach uses the Moon's known neutral He and Na exospheres to deriv e He+ and Na+ pickup ion exospheres, including their phase space distributions, densities and fluxes. The neutral exospheres used are those based on existing models and remote sensing studies. As mentioned, future ion measurements can be used to constrain the pickup ion model and subsequently improve the neutral exosphere descriptions. The pickup ion model is also used to estimate the exosphere sources of recently observed pickup ions on KAGUYA [3]. Future missions carrying ion spectrometers (e.g., ARTEMIS) will be able to study the lunar neutral exosphere with great sensitivity, yielding the necessary ion velocity spectra needed to further analysis of parent neutral exosphere properties.

Hartle, R. E.↗

The impact of the $\text{WHIM}$ on the $\text{IGM}$ thermal state determined from the low- z Lyman $\alpha$ forest

At z ≲ 1, shock heating caused by large-scale velocity flows and possibly violent feedback from galaxy formation, converts a significant fraction of the cool gas (T ~ 10 4 K) in the intergalactic medium (IGM) into warm–hot phase (WHIM) with T > 10 5 K, resulting in a significant deviation from the previously tight power-law IGM temperature–density relationship, T = T 0 (P/$\bar{p}$) γ-1 ⁠. This study explores the impact of the WHIM on measurements of the low-z IGM thermal state, [T 0 , γ], based on the b–NH 1 distribution of the Ly α forest. Exploiting a machine learning-enabled simulation-based inference method trained on Nyx hydrodynamical simulations, we demonstrate that [T 0 , γ] can still be reliably measured from the b–NH 1 distribution at z = 0.1, notwithstanding the substantial WHIM in the IGM. To investigate the effects of different feedback, we apply this inference methodology to mock spectra derived from the IllustrisTNG and Illustris simulations at z = 0.1. The results suggest that the underlying [T 0 , γ] of both simulations can be recovered with biases as low as |Δlog(T 0 /K)| ≲ 0.05 dex, |Δγ| ≲ 0.1, smaller than the precision of a typical measurement. Given the large differences in the volume-weighted WHIM fractions between the three simulations (Illustris 38 percent, IllustrisTNG 10 percent, and Nyx 4 per cent), we conclude that the b–N H1 distribution is not sensitive to the WHIM under realistic conditions. Finally, we investigate the physical properties of the detectable Ly α absorbers, and discover that although their T and Δ distributions remain mostly unaffected by feedback, they are correlated with the photoionization rate used in the simulation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Generalized fiducial inference on differentiable manifolds

We introduce a novel approach to inference on parameters that take values in a Riemannian manifold embedded in a Euclidean space. Parameter spaces of this form are ubiquitous across many fields, including chemistry, physics, computer graphics, and geology. Here, this new approach uses generalized fiducial inference (GFI) to obtain a posterior-like distribution on the manifold, without needing to know local parameterizations that map to the constrained space from an unconstrained Euclidean space. Using mathematical tools from Riemannian geometry, we construct a constrained generalized fiducial distribution (CGFD). A Bernstein-von Mises-type result for the CGFD, which provides intuition for how the desirable asymptotic qualities of the unconstrained generalized fiducial distribution are inherited by the CGFD, is provided. To illustrate the practical use of the CGFD, we provide a proof-of-concept example in the context of a linear logspline density estimation problem, and demonstrate that CGFD-based confidence sets exhibit desirable coverage properties via simulation. As an application, we fit a CGFD to COVID-19 case count data from North Carolina, USA.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nonequilibrium Behavior in Isoprene Secondary Organic Aerosol

Recent studies have shown that instantaneous gas-particle equilibrium partitioning assumptions fail to predict SOA formation, even at high relative humidity (~85%), and photochemical aging seems to be one driving factor. In this study, we probe the minimum aging time scale required to observe nonequilibrium partitioning of semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs) between the gas and aerosol phase at ~50% RH. Seed isoprene SOA is generated by photo-oxidation in the presence of effloresced ammonium sulfate seeds at <1 ppbv NO x , aged photochemically or in the dark for 0.3–6 h, and subsequently exposed to fresh isoprene SVOCs. Our results show that the equilibrium partitioning assumption is accurate for fresh isoprene SOA but breaks down after isoprene SOA has been aged for as short as 20 min even in the dark. Modeling results show that a semisolid SOA phase state is necessary to reproduce the observed particle size distribution evolution. The observed nonequilibrium partitioning behavior and inferred semisolid phase state are corroborated by offline mass spectrometric analysis on the bulk aerosol particles showing the formation of organosulfates and oligomers. Here, the unexpected short time scale for the phase transition within isoprene SOA has important implications for the growth of atmospheric ultrafine particles to climate-relevant sizes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving wafer-scale Josephson junction resistance variation in superconducting quantum coherent circuits

Quantum bits, or qubits, are an example of coherent circuits envisioned for next-generation computers and detectors. A robust superconducting qubit with a coherent lifetime of O (100 µs) is the transmon: a Josephson junction functioning as a non-linear inductor shunted with a capacitor to form an anharmonic oscillator. In a complex device with many such transmons, precise control over each qubit frequency is often required, and thus variations of the junction area and tunnel barrier thickness must be sufficiently minimized to achieve optimal performance while avoiding spectral overlap between neighboring circuits. Simply transplanting our recipe optimized for single, stand-alone devices to wafer-scale (producing 64, 1x1 cm dies from a 150 mm wafer) initially resulted in global drifts in room-temperature tunneling resistance of ± 30%. Inferring a critical current variation from this resistance distribution, we present an optimized process developed from a systematic 38 wafer study that results in < 3.5% relative standard deviation (RSD) in critical current ( ) for 3000 Josephson junctions (both single-junctions and asymmetric SQUIDs) across an area of 49 cm 2 . Looking within a 1x1 cm moving window across the substrate gives an estimate of the variation characteristic of a given qubit chip. Our best process, utilizing ultrasonically assisted development, uniform ashing, and dynamic oxidation has shown = 1.8% within 1x1 cm, on average, with a few 1x1 cm areas having < 1.0% (equivalent to < 0.5%). Such stability would drastically improve the yield of multi-junction chips with strict critical current requirements.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗