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At least 541 records · Page 30

Bias-Adjustment Methods for Future Subdaily Precipitation Extremes Consistent Across Durations

Model output from climate projections often requires bias-adjustment to compensate for systematic model errors. A bias-adjustment method for extreme precipitation intensity is proposed that preserves the scaling equation for different accumulation levels from hourly to daily, using intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) modeling. A validation is performed within a pseudo-reality setting, based on hourly precipitation from 28 regional climate model projections of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble over Belgium. The scaling-based adjustment methods improve upon previous methods, an optimal method is identified, and, analytical quantile mapping methods must be avoided due to three identified problems. The ensemble mean of the adjusted extreme precipitation intensity obeys the above-mentioned scale-invariance property, which is consistent with observed extreme intensities. We thus show that IDF modeling provides added value in the context of bias-adjustment, and, that the particular IDF model proposed balances well between accuracy and the preservation of desired properties such as scale invariance and consistency among rainfall durations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards mapping biodiversity from above: Can fusing lidar and hyperspectral remote sensing predict taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic tree diversity in temperate forests?

Abstract Aim Rapid global change is impacting the diversity of tree species and essential ecosystem functions and services of forests. It is therefore critical to understand and predict how the diversity of tree species is spatially distributed within and among forest biomes. Satellite remote sensing platforms have been used for decades to map forest structure and function but are limited in their capacity to monitor change by their relatively coarse spatial resolution and the complexity of scales at which different dimensions of biodiversity are observed in the field. Recently, airborne remote sensing platforms making use of passive high spectral resolution (i.e., hyperspectral) and active lidar data have been operationalized, providing an opportunity to disentangle how biodiversity patterns vary across space and time from field observations to larger scales. Most studies to date have focused on single sites and/or one sensor type; here we ask how multiple sensor types from the National Ecological Observatory Network’s Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP) perform across multiple sites in a single biome at the NEON field plot scale (i.e., 40 m × 40 m). Location Eastern USA. Time period 2017–2018. Taxa studied Trees. Methods With a fusion of hyperspectral and lidar data from the NEON AOP, we assess the ability of high resolution remotely sensed metrics to measure biodiversity variation across eastern US temperate forests. We examine how taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic measures of alpha diversity vary spatially and assess to what degree remotely sensed metrics correlate with in situ biodiversity metrics. Results Models using estimates of forest function, canopy structure, and topographic diversity performed better than models containing each category alone. Our results show that canopy structural diversity, and not just spectral reflectance, is critical to predicting biodiversity. Main conclusions We found that an approach that jointly leverages spectral properties related to leaf and canopy functional traits and forest health, lidar derived estimates of forest structure, fine‐resolution topographic diversity, and careful consideration of biogeographical differences within and among biomes is needed to accurately map biodiversity variation from above.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probing interspecies metabolic interactions within a synthetic binary microbiome using genome-scale modeling

Metabolic interactions within a microbial community play a key role in determining the structure, function, and composition of the community. However, due to the complexity and intractability of natural microbiomes, limited knowledge is available on interspecies interactions within a community. In this work, using a binary synthetic microbiome, a methanotroph-photoautotroph (M-P) coculture, as the model system, we examined different genome-scale metabolic modeling (GEM) approaches to gain a better understanding of the metabolic interactions within the coculture, how they contribute to the enhanced growth observed in the coculture, and how they evolve over time. Using batch growth data of the model M-P coculture, we compared three GEM approaches for microbial communities. Two of the methods are existing approaches: SteadyCom, a steady state GEM, and dynamic flux balance analysis (DFBA) Lab, a dynamic GEM. We also proposed an improved dynamic GEM approach, DynamiCom, for the M-P coculture. SteadyCom can predict the metabolic interactions within the coculture but not their dynamic evolutions; DFBA Lab can predict the dynamics of the coculture but cannot identify interspecies interactions. DynamiCom was able to identify the cross-fed metabolite within the coculture, as well as predict the evolution of the interspecies interactions over time. A new dynamic GEM approach, DynamiCom, was developed for a model M-P coculture. Constrained by the predictions from a validated kinetic model, DynamiCom consistently predicted the top metabolites being exchanged in the M-P coculture, as well as the establishment of the mutualistic N-exchange between the methanotroph and cyanobacteria. The interspecies interactions and their dynamic evolution predicted by DynamiCom are supported by ample evidence in the literature on methanotroph, cyanobacteria, and other cyanobacteria-heterotroph cocultures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Stellar and weak lensing profiles of massive galaxies in the Hyper-Suprime Cam survey and in hydrodynamic simulations

ABSTRACT We perform a consistent comparison of the mass and mass profiles of massive (M⋆ > 1011.4 M⊙) central galaxies at z ∼ 0.4 from deep Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) observations and from the Illustris, TNG100, and Ponos simulations. Weak lensing measurements from HSC enable measurements at fixed halo mass and provide constraints on the strength and impact of feedback at different halo mass scales. We compare the stellar mass function (SMF) and the Stellar-to-Halo Mass Relation (SHMR) at various radii and show that the radius at which the comparison is performed is important. In general, Illustris and TNG100 display steeper values of α where $M_{\star } \propto M_{\rm vir}^{\alpha }$. These differences are more pronounced for Illustris than for TNG100 and in the inner rather than outer regions of galaxies. Differences in the inner regions may suggest that TNG100 is too efficient at quenching in situ star formation at Mvir ≃ 1013 M⊙ but not efficient enough at Mvir ≃ 1014 M⊙. The outer stellar masses are in excellent agreement with our observations at Mvir ≃ 1013 M⊙, but both Illustris and TNG100 display excess outer mass as Mvir ≃ 1014 M⊙ (by ∼0.25 and ∼0.12 dex, respectively). We argue that reducing stellar growth at early times in $M_\star \sim 10^{9-10} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$ galaxies would help to prevent excess ex-situ growth at this mass scale. The Ponos simulations do not implement AGN feedback and display an excess mass of ∼0.5 dex at r < 30 kpc compared to HSC which is indicative of overcooling and excess star formation in the central regions. The comparison of the inner profiles of Ponos and HSC suggests that the physical scale over which the central AGN limits star formation is r ≲ 20 kpc. Joint comparisons between weak lensing and galaxy stellar profiles are a direct test of whether simulations build and deposit galaxy mass in the correct dark matter haloes and thereby provide powerful constraints on the physics of feedback and galaxy growth. Our galaxy and weak lensing profiles are publicly available to facilitate comparisons with other simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Electrochemical mechanisms of leakage‐current in photovoltaic modules

Abstract This paper analyzes the mechanisms and pathways for leakage current flow observed in Si photovoltaic modules subjected to high temperature and humidity and a large voltage bias with respect to ground. The current inside of the frame is in the form of electron motion, but in the glass and polymer, it is in at least a large part attributable to the movement of ions. When the mode of current flow changes from electronic to ionic conduction, electrochemical reactions will take place at the interface. This can include reactions that produce volatile chemical species like H 2 , CO x , and O 2 , along with ionic species such as OH − and H 3 O + . Here, we see evidence of the importance of different charge carriers with different diffusion rates and the influence of electrochemical processes involved. The application of negative voltage to the cell circuit affects the resistivity of glass producing surfaces with poor conductivity but with some increases in the electrochemical potential producing complicated interactions that are important when the voltage is changed. In the polymer, there is the development of a space charge region and a chemical gradient providing two oppositional forces to current flow, which when released create a complicated discharge process. Here, we give a basic understanding of the charge/discharge of PV cells highlighting how the specific mechanisms are important in understanding some of the degradation processes in PV modules. We find that there is evidence of multiple significant charge carrier species with different diffusion time scales. The glass/polymer interface forms a depleted region of higher resistance after prolonged exposure to current. Charge also builds up at the polymer to cell antireflective coating interface and mostly flows to the gridlines to experience electrochemical reactions. These complexities result in non‐linear behavior where the apparent resistivities of the different layers change during charge/discharging processes, making the modeling of the current flow extremely difficult.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Microtopographic and Depth Controls on Active Layer Chemistry in Arctic Polygonal Ground: Supporting Data

Polygonal ground is a signature characteristic of the Arctic, and permafrost thaw can potentially generate substantial feedbacks to Arctic ecosystems and climate. This study describes the first comprehensive spatial examination of active layer biogeochemistry that extends across high- and low-centered polygons and their features, including depth. Water chemistry measurements were made on active layer water samples collected near Barrow, Alaska during summer, 2012. Several significant differences in chemistry were observed between high- and low-centered polygons suggesting polygon types may be useful for landscape-scale geochemical classification. However, differences were found for polygon features (centers and troughs) for analytes that were not significant for type, suggesting that finer scale features control biogeochemistry in a different way than polygon type. Depth variations were also significant, demonstrating important multi-dimensional aspects of polygonal ground biogeochemistry. These results have major implications for understanding how polygonal ground ecosystems function, and how they may respond to future change. This data package includes one *.csv data file and one *.pdf user guide. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improvements in the orbitalwise scaling down of Perdew–Zunger self-interaction correction in many-electron regions

The Perdew-Zunger (PZ) method offers a way to remove the self-interaction (SI) error from density functional approximations on an orbital by orbital basis. The PZ method provides significant improvements for the properties such as barrier heights or dissociation energies but results in over-correcting the properties well described by SI-uncorrected semi-local functional. One cure to rectify the over-correcting tendency is to scale down the magnitude of SI-correction of each orbital in the many electron region. We have implemented the orbitalwise scaled down SI-correction (OSIC) scheme of Vydrov et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 124, 094108 (2006)] using the Fermi-L owdin SI-correction method. After validating the OSIC implementation with previously reported OSICLSDA results, we examine its performance with the most successful non-empirical SCAN meta-GGA functional. Using different forms of scaling factors to identify one-electron regions, we assess the performance of OSIC-SCAN for a wide range of properties: total energies, ionization potentials and electron affinities for atoms, atomization energies, dissociation and reaction energies, and reaction barrier heights of molecules. Our results show that OSIC-SCAN provides superior results than the previously reported OSIC-LSDA, -PBE, and -TPSS results. Furthermore, we propose selective scaling of OSIC (SOSIC) to remove its major shortcoming that destroys the -1/r asymptotic behavior of the potentials. The SOSIC method gives the highest occupied orbital eigenvalues practically identical to those in PZSIC and unlike OSIC provides bound atomic anions even with larger powers of scaling factors. Furthermore, SOSIC compared to PZSIC or OSIC provides more balanced description of total energies and barrier heights.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Comparing Adjoint Waveform Tomography Models of California Using Different Starting Models

Abstract Adjoint waveform tomography (AWT) sits at the cutting edge of seismic tomography on local, regional, and global scales. However, the choice in starting model may have a significant impact on the final inversion results. In this paper, we present 3 AWT models of California that are based on different starting models. We chose three models that were inverted at different scales: SPiRaL, a global travel‐time tomography model (Simmons et al., 2021, 10.1093/gji/ggab277 ), CSEM_NA, a regional adjoint tomography model of North America and the North Atlantic (Krischer et al., 2018, 10.1029/2017JB015289 ), and WUS256, a regional adjoint tomography model of the western US (Rodgers et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JB024549 ). We then inverted three AWT models using the same source and receiver set. We ran each model over three period bands: 30–100 s, 25–100 s, and 20–80 s. Once the iterations were finalized, we used five methods of testing model similarity in both the model and data space. We conclude that the choice of starting model has a minimal impact on long wavelength models if an appropriate multi‐scale inversion approach is used.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Example of exponentially enhanced magnetic reconnection driven by a spatially bounded and laminar ideal flow

In laboratory and natural plasmas of practical interest, the spatial scale Δ d at which magnetic field lines lose distinguishability differs enormously from the scale a of magnetic reconnection across the field lines. In the solar corona, plasma resistivity gives a/Δ d ~ 10 12 , which is the magnetic Reynold number R m . The traditional resolution of the paradox of disparate scales is for the current density j associated with the reconnecting field Brec to be concentrated by a factor of Rm by the ideal evolution, so j ~ B rec /µ 0 Δ d . A second resolution is for the ideal evolution to increase the ratio of the maximum to minimum separation between pairs of arbitrarily chosen magnetic field lines, Δ max /Δ min , when calculated at various points in time. Reconnection becomes inevitable where Δ max /Δ min ~ R m . A simple model of the solar corona will be used for a numerical illustration that the natural rate of increase in time is linear for the current density but exponential for Δ max /Δ min . Reconnection occurs on a time scale and with a current density enhanced by only ln(a/Δ d ) from the ideal evolution time and from the current density B rec /µ 0 a. In both resolutions, once a sufficiently wide region, Δ r , has undergone reconnection, the magnetic field loses static force balance and evolves on an Alfv´enic time scale. The Alfv´enic evolution is intrinsically ideal but expands the region in which Δ max /Δ min is large.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Compelling Need for a Mid-Scale Stellarator Facility

In the pursuit of the goal of commercial fusion as an abundant and safe source of energy, the stellarator is a leading concept with compelling attractiveness and demonstrated performance. In this white paper we, as a community of US researchers from Universities, National Laboratories, and Private Industry, involved in studying the stellarator concept, lay out the programmatic and technical motivation for a new mid-size stellarator research facility in the US. This contribution is complementary to several other whitepapers authored by members of our community which address different mid-scale stellarator aspects. A community based technical facility proposal has been prepared by F. Parra, et al: Flexible Stellarator Physics Facility. Two private stellarator companies have submitted proposals supporting the development of a mid-scale stellarator: Thea Energy (C.P.S. Swanson, et al.), Type One Energy (W. Guttenfelder, et al.).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DICER: Data Intensive Computing Environment and Runtime for Evaluating Unprecedented Scale of Geospatial-Temporal Human Mobility Data

With the significant increase in sources and volume of human mobility data through commercial data vendors as well as microsimulation of cities, the scale of geospatial-temporal data to analyze and assess for mobility characterization has grown to the level of Big Data. There are mobility related commercial organizations deploying scalable computing, but often the system architecture, workflow, and intermediate processing components are not fully disclosed in relevant scope. Current research literature has a notable lack of studies demonstrating architectures and workflows for human mobility analytics that are implemented on a TeraByte scale of geospatial-temporal data. In this context, this paper presents a hyperscale-level system solution named DICER (Data Intensive Computing Environment and Runtime) for processing and analytics of geospatial-temporal data at big data scale. Although the cluster computing architecture of DICER with Apache Spark job running on Kubernetes cluster is not new, there are innovations in the workflow, hierarchical processing logic, and a wide range of intermediate preprocessing and mobility metrics calculation. We have performed case studies to validate the effectiveness of DICER system solution by performing detailed analytics and assessment of human mobility microsimulation output at three different scopes and scale, including a usecase with 16.97 TeraByte and 259.2 Billion rows of data. In addition, we have presented another case study of utilizing DICER to perform the same mobility processing and comparative analytics on large-scale commercially available geospatial-temporal data. All these case studies validate the efficiency and usefulness of DICER in computing population mobility characteristics from geospatial-temporal trajectory data at an unprecedented scale (not only just data volume, but also combination of: number of user entities, temporal frequency, spatial resolution, data duration).

De, Debraj↗

Space cannot stretch too fast

Here, in this paper, we argue that black holes microstates leave an imprint on the gravitational vacuum through their virtual fluctuations. This imprint yields a power law fall off — rather than an exponential fall off — for the entanglement of planck scale fluctuations at different points. These entanglements generate an extra energy when space stretches too fast, since causality prevents a relaxation of these entanglements to their vacuum values. We obtain semiclassical dynamics for slow processes like star formation, but a radical departure from semiclassicality when a black hole horizon forms even though curvatures remain low everywhere. This resolution of the information puzzle also implies an extra energy source at the scale of the cosmological horizon, which may explain the mysteries of dark energy and the Hubble tension.

black holes↗

Machine Learning for Daily Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Motion: An Attribution Assessment of Model Predictive Skill

Physics-based simulations of Arctic sea ice are highly complex, involving transport between different phases, length scales, and time scales. Resultantly, numerical simulations of sea ice dynamics have a high computational cost and model uncertainty. We employ data-driven machine learning (ML) to make predictions of sea ice motion. The ML models are built to predict present-day sea ice velocity given present-day wind velocity and previous-day sea ice concentration and velocity. Models are trained using reanalysis winds and satellite-derived sea ice properties. We compare the predictions of three different models: persistence (PS), linear regression (LR), and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We quantify the spatiotemporal variability of the correlation between observations and the statistical model predictions. Additionally, we analyze model performance in comparison to variability in properties related to ice motion (wind velocity, ice velocity, ice concentration, distance from coast, bathymetric depth) to understand the processes related to decreases in model performance. Results indicate that a CNN makes skillful predictions of daily sea ice velocity with a correlation up to 0.81 between predicted and observed sea ice velocity, while the LR and PS implementations exhibit correlations of 0.78 and 0.69, respectively. The correlation varies spatially and seasonally: lower values occur in shallow coastal regions and during times of minimum sea ice extent. LR parameter analysis indicates that wind velocity plays the largest role in predicting sea ice velocity on 1-day time scales, particularly in the central Arctic. Regions where wind velocity has the largest LR parameter are regions where the CNN has higher predictive skill than the LR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Real-Space Constrained Density Functional Theory Investigation of Site-Specific, Interfacial Charge Recombination Dynamics Across the Au Nanoparticle/TiO 2 Heterojunction

Au nanoparticle (NP)/TiO 2 heterojunction is a representative system to study interfacial charge transfer in photocatalysis and photovoltaics, where suppressing recombination from TiO 2 to Au can enhance hot carrier extraction. We apply real-space constrained density functional theory (CDFT) with Marcus theory to quantify charge recombination time scales across Au/TiO 2 . This approach enables direct control and visualization of charge-separated states, aligning with site-specific probes like time-resolved X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (trXPS). We find that the charge-separated state features a bipolaron, with recombination dominated by TiO 2 LUMO to Au HOMO transitions, primarily at interfacial Au sites. Marcus rate predictions are benchmarked with surface hopping methods, quantifying differences in time scales and computational efficiency. Lastly, we examine how the Au cluster size affects the free energy change (ΔG) and reorganization energy (λ), explaining trends in closed-shell systems and highlighting challenges for open-shell extrapolations. Overall, CDFT + Marcus theory provides efficient, mechanistically transparent interfacial charge transfer modeling, and we clearly defined its applicability and limitation.

Glenna, Drew M. [Univ. of Idaho, Idaho Falls, ID (↗

A unified catalogue-level reanalysis of stage-III cosmic shear surveys

ABSTRACT Cosmological parameter constraints from recent galaxy imaging surveys are reaching percent-level accuracy on the effective amplitude of the lensing signal, S8. The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will produce subpercent level measurements of cosmological parameters, providing a milestone test of the ΛCDM model. To supply guidance to the upcoming LSST analysis, it is important to understand thoroughly the results from different recent galaxy imaging surveys and assess their consistencies. In this work, we perform a unified catalogue-level reanalysis of three cosmic shear data sets: the first year data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES-Y1), the 1000 deg2 data set from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000), and the first year data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-Y1). We utilize a pipeline developed and rigorously tested by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration to perform the reanalysis and assess the robustness of the results to analysis choices. We find the S8 constraint to be robust to two different small-scale modelling approaches, and varying choices of cosmological priors. Our unified analysis allows the consistency of the surveys to be rigorously tested, and we find the three surveys to be statistically consistent. Due to the partially overlapping footprint, we model the cross-covariance between KiDS-1000 and HSC-Y1 approximately when combining all three data sets, resulting in a 1.6–1.9 per cent constraint on S8 given different assumptions on the cross-covariance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Full-Scale Soft-Sensor Implementations Enable WRRF Hybrid Digital-Twins

Digital twins (DTs) are on the rise in the wastewater treatment industry and, with ever-increasinguse of online data in more complex applications, it is bringing us towards a digital revolution withinwater resource recovery facilities (WRRFs). An integral data requirement is dynamic real-timeinfluent concentrations. However, few WRRFs have the ability to deploy sensors to generate therequired dynamic influent concentrations. This paper presents an innovative approach to generatedynamic influent profiles with a soft sensor primarily using bioreactor airflow rates and DT models.It has been implemented on three different full-scale facilities and demonstrate it is feasible toretrieve 15-minute interval diurnal influent concentrations. This study overcomes a key bottleneckin DT applications - the lack of realistic high-resolution influent profiles - fostering the developmentof DTs. The fact that the data used in this study are commonly available ensures wide applicabilityfor most WRRFs and prepares them for the advanced controls that digital twins can unlock.

Johnson, Bruce↗